Baseball Toaster: Dodger Thoughts : Kershaw VI: Kershaw's, Foiled Again?

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$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000

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*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
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*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
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*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
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$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
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Lucas May
Xavier Paul

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Kershaw VI: Kershaw's, Foiled Again?

2008-06-20 15:30

by Jon Weisman

Trivia: Clayton Kershaw has pitched in 15 games this season without earning a win as a pitcher. Why?

Jacksonville (0-3, 2.28 ERA)

April 4: Went three innings in his season debut, allowing one earned run, but left trailing 2-1 in what became a 5-1 loss.

April 10: Allowed two runs in the first inning of a 2-0 loss. Struck out eight in five innings.

April 15: Allowed a run in the sixth inning of another 2-0 loss. That's one run in three games from the Suns offense in support of Kershaw.

April 20: Allowed two runs, both unearned, in 5 2/3 innings. Left with the game tied at 2; Jacksonville scored eight runs in the seventh inning.

April 25: Pitched six innings of shutout ball, left with a 2-0 lead. Jacksonville led 4-0 in the eighth inning but lost, 5-4.

May 2: Pitch 6 2/3 innings, allowing one unearned run. Left with the game tied; Jacksonville scored three in the eighth to win, 4-1.

May 7: Suns led 5-3 in the fifth when Kershaw entered and pitched one shutout inning of relief. Stood in position to earn the victory, but Jacksonville lost in 10 innings, 6-5.

May 12: Staked to a 2-0 lead, Kershaw allowed more than two runs for the first time in 2008. He left after 3 1/3 innings, trailing 5-2. The Suns later tied the game but lost, 6-5.

May 17: Leading 5-0 after five innings, Kershaw allowed three runs (two earned) in the sixth. Jacksonville then gave up eight more and lost, 11-5.

May 22: Poised for his Dodger callup, Kershaw pitched a perfect first inning but was then pulled in what became a 6-0 Suns win.

Los Angeles (0-1, 3.75 ERA, 116 ERA+)

May 25: Left after six innings leading, 3-2, in his major-league debut. St. Louis tied the game in the seventh; the Dodgers won in the 10th.

May 30: Struggled through 3 2/3 innings, allowing four runs. Dodgers scored four in the eighth to win, 9-5.

June 4: Allowed two runs in five innings of a 2-1 loss to Colorado.

June 10: Left trailing 2-1 after 5 2/3 innings. Dodgers scored four in the next inning and beat San Diego, 7-2.

June 15: Pitched four shutout innings before a rain delay took him out of the scoreless game at Detroit. Tigers went up 5-0 against Chan Ho Park and hung on for a 5-4 victory.

Kershaw arguably has pitched well enough to have a 11-3 minors/majors record this season (with a no-decision for the May 22 game).

* * *

Indians at Dodgers, 7:40 p.m.

Comments (208)

Show/Hide Comments 1-50

2008-06-20 15:40:38

1. larry slimfast

Joe Morgan would like to point out that the kid just doesn't know how to win.

2008-06-20 15:41:26

2. Zak

The guy may be a great pitcher but he is not a winner.

2008-06-20 15:41:59

3. Zak

1 Glad to see it is such an obvious joke :)

2008-06-20 15:46:00

4. Jim Hitchcock

Before I left for a camping trip last week, I crowed with certitude that `we could beat the Tigers!'.

I will make no such mistake this time.

2008-06-20 15:50:06

5. Jon Weisman

4 - No more camping, then.

2008-06-20 15:51:32

6. CodyS

A major component of earning the official win as a pitcher is being able to stay a long time in the game and be effective. Of course, you can get the win without doing that and you can do that without getting the win. But there is a decent correlation between wins and that highly desirable characteristic of a start. It is legitimate to complain that Kershaw has not been able to pitch deep in games effectively. Of course at his age, it is unrealistic to hope that he will, and probably in some ways counterproductive to his development. But the fact remains that he doesn't currently offer this important facet of a starting pitcher. He's still a great guy to throw out there every 8 days or whatever, don't get me wrong. But there is something important (loosely) captured by Wins, and Kershaw doesn't have it as of June 2008.

2008-06-20 15:53:51

7. Jon Weisman

6 - Well, part of it is that he's been pulled often because of limits, not ineffectiveness.

But the importance of pitcher wins is very loose, to use your term. I mean, Kershaw has clearly deserved to have a bunch of them this year.

2008-06-20 15:56:45

8. Eric Enders

I've always thought that the scoring rules for awarding wins should be changed. If the starting pitcher goes at least 5 innings and leaves with a lead, he should get the win even if his bullpen blows it but his team later re-takes the lead. Too many vulture wins end up going to the Scott Proctors of the world.

2008-06-20 15:58:27

9. Jon Weisman

8 - I'd be pretty ready to get rid of the five-inning minimum, if I still cared at all about pitcher wins.

2008-06-20 16:02:07

10. Marty

Wins are for closers!

2008-06-20 16:02:44

11. Marty

I guess Glen Garry Glen Ross lines don't always translate.

2008-06-20 16:03:02

12. Ryan Jerz

9 Exactly. Why the different standards for starters and relievers? I'd like to know if I also still cared a lick about wins.

2008-06-20 16:08:05

13. Michael D

I've never understood why a starter has to go 5 innings to get a win but a reliever can literally not throw a single pitch and get a win, or even if they do just get one out to get a win.

2008-06-20 16:08:20

14. Jon Weisman

Tonight's lineup:
Pierre, LF
Kemp, CF
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
LaRoche, 3B
Ethier, RF
Berroa, SS
Ardoin, C
Kershaw, P

2008-06-20 16:08:38

15. Eric Enders

It's incumbent upon me to care about wins as long as the world at large cares about them. Wins are never going away, and given that, we should try to make the stat as meaningful as possible so that the stats used by the average fan actually reflect the quality of the player.

2008-06-20 16:09:57

16. Eric Enders

13 A starting pitcher, like a reliever, can also technically get a win without throwing a pitch. But it's difficult.

2008-06-20 16:14:57

17. Jim Hitchcock

5 Sorry, next Thursday & Friday, more Sierra. :0. But I'll keep my mouth shut this time!

2008-06-20 16:16:37

18. Jon Weisman

15 - So, wins are like Ken Rosenthal.

2008-06-20 16:17:17

19. underdog

LaRoche Alert! Stand Up! LaRoche Alert!

Jon, I might be suffering from dehydration but I'm embarrassed to admit I don't get the reference in your subject header...

2008-06-20 16:17:53

20. underdog

18 Wins aren't quite that pointless.

2008-06-20 16:18:20

21. Eric Enders

The other thing about wins is that what they've become is not at all what was originally intended. We would be better off replacing the pitcher's W-L record with the team's record in games which he starts. This is, in fact, what the wins stat originally measured, because back in the 1870s every starter pitched the complete game, with no exceptions. Wins were a way of measuring how your team did in the games you started.

But then guys stopped pitching complete games and the concept of the wins stat changed. Its meaning has been distorted from what was originally intended, much in the way that "Wings" has become listed in retrospect as the 1927 Best Picture winner even though Academy members actually voted "Sunrise" as the best film of the year.

Okay, re-reading, that analogy doesn't really work. But I'm too lazy to come up with something better.

2008-06-20 16:19:04

22. underdog

Ah, "Curses! Foiled again" - right? Not a movie title. I need to get my head out of the movie catalog.

2008-06-20 16:19:43

23. underdog

17 Where are you camping this time?

2008-06-20 16:20:36

24. Brent Knapp

13 what, the first 15 batters bat in the wrong order?

2008-06-20 16:22:35

25. Eric Enders

24 Pitcher goes to his mouth while on the mound. Ball one is called. Repeat three more times. Batter takes first and is picked off.

Repeat 15 times.

(Hey, I told you it was technical.)

2008-06-20 16:23:13

26. Jim Hitchcock

23 TBD. My cousin has books with every water hole and campsite in California listed. Might head up to the Lassen/Shasta area, but the water there is cold!!

2008-06-20 16:26:26

27. Jim Hitchcock

23 Speaking of Greencine, last week I took a portable DVD player along. We not only had the best campfire burning, we had movies! It was kinda neat, even though it could be said that it introduces a little too much civilization into the experience.

2008-06-20 16:27:06

28. Ryan Jerz

26 Almanor is cool. Burney Falls I hear is a great spot. Eagle Lake is closer than both and cool.

2008-06-20 16:27:28

29. bigcpa

What I can't believe is that Steiner, Reuss, Monday and Ken Levine have openly ridiculed the Quality Start stat this year. Meanwhile they cite win stats on a daily basis just because. Somehow it's unthinkable that 6ip, 3er reflects "quality" yet a 5ip, 3er, WIN is commendable.

2008-06-20 16:29:52

30. Jon Weisman

BigCPA - Defending the Quality Start since 2003.

2008-06-20 16:30:23

31. Jon Weisman

30 - I should add, you basically converted me over to your side.

2008-06-20 16:32:08

32. Eric Enders

What I find amazing is the ceaseless citing of the worst possible quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) as if it were the only kind of quality start that anyone ever gets, instead of a rather rare anomaly. It's like constantly citing 5 innings and 22 earned runs as a ridiculous instance of a pitcher getting a win.

And even if 6 IP, 3 ER was the only kind of quality start anyone ever got -- that comes out, over a full season, to 204 innings pitched with a 4.50 ERA. In other words, a pitcher that every single team in baseball would embrace having in its rotation.

2008-06-20 16:33:04

33. Jim Hitchcock

28 Always wanted to see Burney Falls, though the water has the rep of being waaaayyy to cold to swim in. Some fishing might be in order,though.

Thanks for the tip on Almanor. BTW, where in Northern Nevada are you?

2008-06-20 16:35:01

34. berkowit28

14 Kemp is batting second, with DeWitt not in the lineup. Not much chance for many RBIs there - if his bat is heating up as it seems to be. I bet he's there because he's a fast baserunner.

2008-06-20 16:35:22

35. underdog

27 That's neat! Especially if there aren't a lot of other campsites around you, close by, that might get annoyed by having to listen to it against their will. ;-) The one time I went camping by myself a couple of years ago I definitely wished I had something like that, though. Nothing like sitting there in the dark wide awake by yourself. Those owls need to learn to play poker.

2008-06-20 16:36:39

36. Eric Enders

In case anyone was wondering, since 1957 the most runs ever given up by a pitcher who was credited with a win was 10, by Bob's best pal.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL200005210.shtml

And also by Vida Blue.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN197904190.shtml

2008-06-20 16:38:12

37. Gen3Blue

While I like some things about our line-up tonight, it does effectively have a four man black hole. At least Berroa and Maza aren't played together, an event I can't understand with any amount of logic
(obviously what is called black logic in the Missionary conundrum.)
Kershaw should just throw normally and get his experience. Cliff Lee is a thirty year old in his prime and having a career year. And in my opinion with a bit of luck Kershaw has every chance to win.

2008-06-20 16:40:17

38. Greg Brock

Winners win. Losers lose.

And nodecisioners no-decision.

2008-06-20 16:41:58

39. bigcpa

30 Ha! That got a smile out of me. I defend the QS because it is one of the few attempts to fix a stupid mainstream stat that gets any airtime at all. The fact that the boys club rips it just adds fuel to my rage.

2008-06-20 16:42:09

40. Marty

I've spent a lot of time at Almanor. Huge, man-made lake. The town of Chester, on the lake has a cafe with the best chicken-fried steak I've ever had.

Jim, you should also check out Bucks Lake outside of Quincy. It's a great place with very good fishing.

2008-06-20 16:43:04

41. Jim Hitchcock

35 LOL!

2008-06-20 16:46:05

42. Jon Weisman

Given that every night brings a minimum of a three-man so-called black hole at SS, P and LF, it can't be much of a surprise that we sometimes go to four.

2008-06-20 16:46:18

43. overkill94

36 Vida Blue's a hell of a nice guy. He came to a baseball camp I went to when I was 12 and he couldn't have been a more likable guy.

2008-06-20 16:47:44

44. Jim Hitchcock

40 Funny you should mention Quincy, Marty...I just left a message for another cousin, who has a cabin outside of town. Hope he can get some time off.

2008-06-20 16:48:37

45. sporky

Andy!

(weeps)

By the way, I stopped by my local Borders during lunch. No Daily Variety :(

2008-06-20 16:57:20

46. Kevin Lewis

I am glad you pointed this out. They used the term "quality start" this past weekend, but it wasn't for the same definition. I got all confused.

The good news about Vin calling the game: no more debates about instant replay.

2008-06-20 17:08:29

47. underdog

45 I know, I had the same troubles - both a Border's newsstand and a Border's store did not carry Variety. I know this is SF, not LA, but still, that's pretty lame.

Rats, I have to go to an event this early evening so I shall have to catch the Minotaur VI playing in the archives. Hope it's a good one.

2008-06-20 17:09:23

48. Ryan Jerz

33 Live in Reno, work in Carson. I also work at state tourism, so it should be noted I endorse none of the above recommendations as they are in California.

2008-06-20 17:14:19

49. bigcpa

Historically only 5-6% of all Quality Starts are of the 6ip, 3er variety (http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/qstart.htm). A Neyer study in 2005 showed the avg ERA for pitchers earning Qual Starts was 2.04 compared to 7.70 in Non Qual Starts. Also the avg ERA for NL starters in 2007 was 4.64.

Reuss said on the air that 4.50 isn't even average. Maybe he's talking about the 80's.

2008-06-20 17:15:49

50. Jim Hitchcock

48 Cool. I live and work in Carson (work on Arrowhead Dr.), but head to Reno every Saturday to hang out with my cousins.

So far, your only the second Dodger fan I've run into. Too close to the Bay Area, I guess.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100

2008-06-20 17:16:56

51. Jim Hitchcock

{48] We'll have to get together sometime to share the fun stories of driving through Washoe:)

2008-06-20 17:17:30

52. Jiminy Cricket

Time to see if Loney will continue to hit when Mattingly is around. To my casual observation, it sure seems like having a retired left handed line drive hitting first baseman around to tutor a left handed line drive hitting first baseman sure makes a difference.

2008-06-20 17:18:45

53. El Lay Dave

My friend have vacation homes/cabins in Eagle Lake, which I've been to a couple times. It's a huge, natural lake that is remote enough to be lightly used. It's a little over 5000' and the water is kinda cold - I used a shorty for water skiing, but I'm getting old and increasingly intolerant of the cold - but you can definitely swim in it, and it's quiet and peaceful there. (Never camped there though.)

Burney Falls is certainly a beautiful sight and my fingertip confirms that the water is chilly!

2008-06-20 17:26:54

54. CodyS

I feel it's important to distinguish the ways a pitcher can not win. Ismael Valdes, for example. He never was a winner because he was such a wussy closet boy. His teammates were so disgusted with his wussiness that they were willing to sacrifice their own statistics to make sure the Dodgers never scored when he pitched. At least I'm pretty sure that's what Rick Monday et al said at the time.

2008-06-20 17:28:35

55. Eric Enders

In 2007, 11.2 percent of quality starts were of the 6 IP, 3 ER variety. (261 of 2,324)

2008-06-20 17:35:54

56. bigcpa

Another bit of drivel heard recently... our starters are 19-31 and the bullpen is 15-7. This is presented as evidence of some kind of defect in the rotation.

2008-06-20 17:38:28

57. Marty

Big trout in Eagle Lake. Last time I was there they had just had a pretty big fire. Lots of charred wood.

2008-06-20 18:09:25

58. Telemachos

Go Blue! I'm off to the stadium to see the Minotaur live for the first time. Glad to see LaRoche's in the lineup too.

2008-06-20 18:20:05

59. MollyKnight

Dodgers and Indians! Weird!

2008-06-20 18:21:06

60. Alex41592

Some good news as the Twins have a 6-0 lead on the D'Backs in the 4th.

2008-06-20 18:37:57

61. Disabled List

In my fantasy league, we use quality starts as a scoring category instead of wins. We just started doing it this year, and it's been a big success. The correlation between QS and W's is almost 1:1, and it eliminates wins thanks to big offense, vultured wins by relievers, and bullpen shenanigans.

Count me a fan of the QS.

2008-06-20 18:45:35

62. KG16

The problem with the minimum quality start is that it doesn't really sound like that great of a start. I'm not saying it isn't, I'm just talking perception. Personally, I'd like to see the requirement for a quality start extended to 7 innings.

The problem with wins is the middle reliever, and particularly the different rules for starters and relievers.

I think the proper way to measure these is as a ratio, QS:W. I'd also suggest a line of W-L-QS.

For relievers I think a ratio of BS:W is also something worth looking at.

2008-06-20 18:51:25

63. 68elcamino427

#27 Matt Kemp, The Bison, Tougher Than a Robot Made Of Nails, rounding a base near you ... soon. Fasten your seatbelts Cleveland Indians!

2008-06-20 19:15:30

64. Linkmeister

The usual Borders I go to doesn't carry Variety either (I asked).

How come Firefox 3.0 has eliminated storing my sign-in cookie for the Toaster? Ken?

2008-06-20 19:22:08

65. Marty

Yeah, I noticed it doesn't remember my login name anymore too.

2008-06-20 19:23:54

66. dianagramr

64 65

the first time you reach a (now forgotten) page, you should see a "pop-up" asking you if you want firefox to remember your password

2008-06-20 19:27:53

67. Marty

I don't get no popups

2008-06-20 19:29:45

68. D4P

Preferred Option:

1. Eliminate "Win" statistic completely

Second Best Option:

2. Eliminate 5-inning minimum requirement for starting pitchers

Third Best Option:

3. Distinguish between "Starter Wins" and "Reliever Wins".

2008-06-20 19:30:06

69. MollyKnight

I have been out every night this week and my goose is cooked. I have just made the executive decision to skip my friend's concert in favor of staying in and watching the game. Of course, he's a Dodger fan so he should understand.

2008-06-20 19:31:55

70. MollyKnight

Is anybody else really excited about seeing Clayton Kershaw pitch to Grady Sizemore? Ahhhh!!

2008-06-20 19:34:03

71. Linkmeister

69 Phew. Livin' the high life, huh? ;)

No pop-up here, either.

2008-06-20 19:37:23

72. Linkmeister

I, on the other hand, stayed in and made crock-pot bbq.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/62wrfq

2008-06-20 19:40:00

73. 68elcamino427

The Minotaur has captured my attention like no other. Every time that I see him pitch, I feel that I'm witnessing another steppingstone on a pathway that leads to a historic career.

2008-06-20 19:40:09

74. tjshere

65 I've had no problem with that, but Cool Iris seems to only work when it wants to with Firefox 3.

2008-06-20 19:42:27

75. MollyKnight

69-Yah. I go to plays and baseball games.

2008-06-20 19:43:17

76. Andrew Shimmin

Ctrl-Shift-Del will open Clear Private Data box. After you delete your saved passwords, it should re-prompt you to save them, the next time.

I always delete the hidden user files when I install a major upgrade, after uninstalling the program (after backing up my bookmarks, searchbar plugins, and extensions). I'm all about fresh starts.

I assume LaRoche is going to a costume ball as Colonel Sanders, next week, and is just getting his facial hair in order.

2008-06-20 19:45:10

77. MollyKnight

Oh, and Ben Francisco and Ryan Garko both went to Servite and graduated the same year. I think Vin just said Diamond Bar.

2008-06-20 19:45:19

78. El Lay Dave

76 "I'm all about fresh starts."

Good time to get rid of the pleated pants?

2008-06-20 19:47:13

79. Andrew Shimmin

78- I'll lose the pleats when I decide to stop sitting down or putting things in my pockets. Until then, they're useful enough that I'm willing to tolerate D4P's disdain.

2008-06-20 19:47:53

80. Andrew Shimmin

Scrappy throw to second.

2008-06-20 19:49:34

81. Indiana Jon

After three days in Cincinnati, bringing the Dodgers good luck, I am starting to believe the Dodgers don't like me. Not only did Kershaw pitch the game before Cincy and now the game after, but Laroche didn't see one at bat during my three games there. I knew I should have gone to Detroit.

2008-06-20 19:50:13

82. El Lay Dave

57 Eagle Lake Trout is its own species. Cooks up pink!

2008-06-20 19:52:27

83. MonkeyBlue

Wow, tough break for Kent.

2008-06-20 19:53:03

84. Andrew Shimmin

I wonder whose bright idea that was.

2008-06-20 19:55:06

85. 68elcamino427

Nice at bats by Kemp and Loney.

2008-06-20 19:58:23

86. scareduck

68 - The Mariners would be happy if wins were eliminated as a measure of the team's standings.

2008-06-20 20:01:20

87. 68elcamino427

Kershaw dominates the batters in the second inning.

2008-06-20 20:03:29

88. D4P

86
The Dodgers wouldn't be too displeased themselves.

2008-06-20 20:07:14

89. D4P

How is Ned most likely to get rid of LaRoche:

1. Trade
2. DFA

2008-06-20 20:08:54

90. tjshere

3. Unprotected in Rule 5 draft

2008-06-20 20:10:20

91. silverwidow

90 Doesn't apply -- LaRoche is already on the 40-man roster.

2008-06-20 20:11:58

92. El Lay Dave

Lots of notes on the P-E blog by Kevin Pearson:

Andruw Jones (knee) took live batting for the first time and Torre said that Jones looked more comfortable than he has all season.

Nomar Garciaparra (calf) will be shut down for at least 10 more days and is not expected to return before the All-Star Break.

Communication problems: Hiroki Kuroda ... has been dealing with the (tendinitis) issue for 3 weeks, .... What makes this a major issue is the fact that he has been seeing the trainers for three weeks to get treatment and get medication but somehow there was a lack of communication to Joe Torre and Ned Colletti that this may have been a serious issue.

2008-06-20 20:13:23

93. El Lay Dave

Add 92 "communication problems":
neither Torre or Colletti told Kuroda he was going on the DL. The player said he heard it from someone else not involved in the decision making process.

2008-06-20 20:14:08

94. El Lay Dave

Hot night. I hope the Dodgers can hit a few out too.

2008-06-20 20:14:34

95. Andrew Shimmin

Who's going to come back sooner:

1. Nomar
2. Godot

2008-06-20 20:16:07

96. scareduck

And now, something entirely different:

http://derbydolls.com/la/index.html

(I know one of the skaters.)

2008-06-20 20:18:44

97. scareduck

95 - 3. (Ivan de) Jesus.

2008-06-20 20:19:25

98. dianagramr

Bell Bottoms

2008-06-20 20:19:34

99. KG16

95 - Godot, but I hear he's already come and gone

2008-06-20 20:20:23

100. El Lay Dave

Good spot for the K.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150

2008-06-20 20:21:10

101. scareduck

98 - come and gone, my friend.

2008-06-20 20:21:34

102. Andrew Shimmin

Note to self: never let scareduck set me up on a blind date.

2008-06-20 20:21:57

103. 68elcamino427

Nice recovery by the twenty year old.

2008-06-20 20:23:16

104. Bluebleeder87

was the HR Kershaw gave up a little high? It looked a little high from were I'm sitting but it definitely looked down the middle

2008-06-20 20:24:40

105. El Lay Dave

...She was five foot six and two fifteen
A bleached-blonde mama
With a streak of mean
She knew how to knuckle
And she knew how to scuffle and fight

And the Roller Derby program said
That she was built like a 'frigerator with a head
The fans call her Tuffy
But all her buddie