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Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 40-30 (.571)
When Jon attended: 6-3 (.667)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise passed along the update.
>> I added that last sentence, in case you weren't sure. :)
vr, Xei
Or as my mom would say, "Always expect the worst, that way if something good happens, you'll be pleasantly surprised."
Seriously, though, I'm glad to see Repko on the Dodgers again. For some reason, I've always liked him (as a utility outfielder, not necessarily a starter).
I hope Pierre takes the full time needed to completely get back to 100%. (Not being snarky -- his plus is his speed; if he's not 100% then his value is greatly diminished).
I hope it doesn't affect his speed.
Thats not bad.
If you feel singled out by this directive, please know that you are not being singled out :)
Anyway, I feel like this guy has gotten enough grief for the Furcal incident.
LF Young
CF Kemp
RF Ethier
Option B:
LF Ethier
CF Repko
RF Kemp
Which one?
Or "Jason Voorhees"...?
He is an improvement, but I wouldn't start him vs. Oswalt tonight. Lefties are batting .304 against Oswalt this season. Though Oswalt has given up 11 home runs to righties this season. He's not exactly un-hittable this season, but he's also very capable of pitching a gem at any moment.
The way the desire for speed at the top of the lineup affects who is in the lineup at all is just too tiresome for me to deal with.
Buster Olney's thoughts on who can get C.C. from Cleveland.
4. Dodgers: They have the goods to make a deal, if they agree to swap the likes of Matt Kemp, but the Dodgers might have two problems: No. 1, they rarely pull the trigger on prospect-laden deals, and No. 2, the value of some of their prospects is perceived to be slipping by other teams.
People have wanted the Dodgers to acquire a big hitter in a trade -- well, basically, they just did. At least for 2 to 4 weeks. Trading for an outfielder with an OPS+ of 130 would have improved the outfield by 30 points of OPS+ (by replacing Ethier's 100). Instead, we improve the outfield by 30-35 points of OPS+ by replacing Pierre (70) with Delwyn Young (who, let's be conservative, will probably be around 100-105).
One of the frustrating things about 2007-08 Dodgers has been the situation where the team would improve remarkably if only a few key players got injured. Nobody likes rooting for an injury, but if you genuinely want the team to win, that's what you're forced to do. I'm happy about this, and I'm not going to feel guilty about it. Dodgers management has driven us to it by their refusal/inability to recognize their best players and put them in the lineup. If it takes a freak accident for that to happen, then it's fine with me.
I have never understood why he took so much grief for that, he made the catch.
22
He has been much better than that in June with a OPS better than .900
I choose to ignore CC trade speculation. I mean, really, he's going to be a free agent in October. How hard is it to wait?
That's "vegas OBP" Not even the top in the top 3 OFs for the 51's.
LF Young
CF Repko
RF Kemp
As much as we were all intrigued by Ethier's ability to hit southpaws in 2006 and the stories of his dad (I think) making him learn to do so and practice extensively, he's just not a good enough LHB for his hitting southpaws to ever be valuable. I'd rather give Pee Wee the full playing time.
Except that they routinely pull the trigger on prospects-perceived-to-be-slipping-by-other-teams-laden deals.
Also, this season against lefties he has an OPS of .934 in 70 AB's with 9 walks (.420 OBP). A straight up platoon Young vs. righties and Repko vs. lefties would be a very good idea.
Or, what Jon said.
I enjoy watching Repko play and am glad to see him back...our RPG is about to go up tremendously, and the press will attribute it to the "veteran leadership" that Nomar will provide upon his return.
Will Carroll's column revolves around analyzing the reported injuries, and they didn't even release the diagnosis on Pierre until 30 minutes ago. I've got problems with Carroll's analysis sometimes, but I'm not going to hold his inability to mind-read against him.
Here is the full excerpt. It is Olney's opinion.
The Indians are not looking to make a Sabathia deal to save money -- after all, they offered the pitcher tens of millions of dollars -- but the faster they move, the more money they save. If they trade him within the next week, their savings would be about $8 million, another executive guess-timated; that would be the combined dollar figure of money not paid in salary to Sabathia, and money not paid out to sign the compensation draft picks received when Sabathia walks away as a free agent.
But Carroll does take the time to tell the world how much of an injury risk Chad Billingsley is.
Ethier, RF
Martin, C
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Young, LF
DeWitt, 3B
Maza, SS
Stults, P
I am stunned that Kemp isn't playing, but Repko is.
Btw, I'm glad to see Maza starting for Berroa. It's kind of grasping at tiny straws, but it seems like he's a slightly better bet both in the field and at the plate.
==
Hey, Kemp is batting .000 vs. Oswalt!
er, in one at bat.
Repko 27
Ethier 26
Martin 25
Kent 40
Loney 24
Young 26
DeWitt 22
Maza 28
Stults 28
Average age: 27.33
Average age, sans Kent: 25.75
Kemp not playing? Does this have to do with the "he struggles against tough righties" theorem?
I was operating under the assumption that Repko would be the 25th man. Upthread, while you guys were discussing how much playing time he was going to get, I was dismissing the idea out of hand. I temporarily forgot we were dealing with a manager whose incompetence knows no bounds. Anything he can screw up, he will.
Seriously. Get somebody, anybody, who can tell the difference between a good baseball player and a bad one. It really ain't that difficult. Backward as baseball men are, almost every other team manages to get its good players in the lineup, and its bad ones on the bench. It's not too much to ask.
Were looking at well below 0.300 career OBP for that group.
This is a mess.
Your PH objection is silly, I feel. I will note that the bulk of your objection basically boils down to it being too bad that the Dodgers have Mark Sweeney on their roster instead of a semi-competent RHB. If you load your lineup with RHB to face a southpaw SP (I'm assuming that in your scenario there are six RHB, Loney, and Ethier/Young in the lineup with DeWitt, Maza/Berroa, Sweeney, and Ardoin on the bench), you will be lucky if there is ever a LHP RP in the game. Managers are going to use a true LOOGY on Loney, if at all, not against the PH for your pitcher. Against the starter, the only time you would think about pinch-hitting would be for your pitcher, and half the time the LHP SP will be out of the game before you choose to do that. There's no reason to pinch hit for starters who have the platoon advantage. So the question is whether you would want to use Young to PH for the pitcher against the LHP SP in the 6th or whether you're ok with using one of the RHB defense guys (Maza/Ardoin/Berroa). With the positional flexibility of LaRoche and DeWitt still on the bench, it seems fine to use one of them in such a situation and sit on Ethier to use him against a reliever. Starting Young over Ethier really does not create any bench problems other than a small lack of flexibility over pinch-hitting for your SP. And if the Dodgers were to replace Sweeney with an RHB, there would be no grounds for this objection.
Let me just say this about Ethier and his dad. For all the practice, there is no way that Ethier has genuinely developed a reverse platoon split. Once you know that, you know Ethier has to be a very good player to start against LHP, because a) he will be worse against them, even if only by a little (though count me down as believing it will be more by a "lot") and b) there is an opportunity cost involved, as freely available RHB corner outfielders will hit a LHP better than a slightly above average LHB (Ethier). Colletti, of course, has systematically prevented the Dodgers from taking advantage of b).
Completely agree.
Also, anyone want to place bets on who goes when Nomar returns. My money is on LaRoche going back to Vegas, with Sweeney staying and Dewitt not going back to the minors where he needs to be.
- Bullet Tooth Tony
Yeah, it's nonsense, I know. It's just that Torre's lineups give the overwhelming impression that he's actually trying to lose.
And regardless of whether the player can get on base or not. I hope I live long enough to see Baseball People realize that speed is more important in front of bad hitters than in front of good, and that getting on base in front of good hitters is more important than being able to run fast.
Torre : Ned :: Tracy : Depo ...?
We don't have to pick and choose here...
Number one, what is the problem with Repko batting leadoff? His OBP numbers aren't horrible in 2008. He should be ok in CF defensively.
I mean, bh, back me up here: aren't we down to just one player who has black hole potential in tonight's lineup? And with Maza, at least you have a capable glove in the infield. Is DeWitt not allowed to have a slump as some of the other guys have?
It's not like Kemp is going to sit out every game this week. He hasn't had a day off in a while. I think I like our chances much more than with Pierre any place in the lineup.
I should say, Repko's minor league OBP numbers aren't horrible in 2008
I hate that I have to qualify this, but this isn't to say I'm endorsing Pierre as one of our top three (or four. or five) outfielders.
Nope. Sadly this is one of the best they could offer, assuming Kemp does need a day off. I'd rather see LaRoche over DeWitt, but that's just a bias.
I'm sorry bh, I didn't mean to imply you had made it up, I meant I called BS on the speculation and wanted to know where you got it from. My apologies for the confusion.
That having been said, I don't think Olney actually says what you had suggested in 32 in that excerpt, "that the Indians may want to make a trade now because ... they will not have to expend additional money to the compensation picks." Olney is just stating there the amount they would figure to save (which is kind of silly, since one of the picks could be the 16th or the 60th), but he actually states plainly that saving money is not their rationale for cons