Sweet! I'll be sure to tune in tonight.

Great game by the Dodgers today.

Pitchers' comfort zones vary

>> 51s hurlers command, rely on different 'out' pitches to stay ahead of the game <<

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/24905939.html

Sorry I have to miss it. I'll be listening in spirit.

Hope some DT folk call in.

Man I dont know what I find harder to belive - that Brian Wilson has 25 saves or that the Giants have 25 wins. Shouldn't they Giants try to move him for a position player younger than 35 years old?

Considering Brian Wilson has a 4.5 ERA and a 1.6 WHIP, and is now an ALL STAR CLOSER, the Giants should certainly trade him to someone that deserves a "proven closer."

definitely listing Jon, thanks for the heads up. man, did you guys here Vinnie say Saito had a hard time brushing his teeth sunday morning? it sounds a little worse than I initially thought but I definitely feel his MRI will be o.k.

with Saito's injury history I really REALLY feel the Dodger "brain trust" dropped the ball on this one (such an important part of our staff & all). with stuff like that going on you really start wondering if the front office ins't in sync with one another.

according to this:

http://tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080713/FSU06/80713008/-1/RSS06

Tony Delmonico signed as well. He is a horrible shortstop defensively but he has a nice little bat.

Thanks for the heads up - I'll be listening in. Just need to find a spot in this crowded basement to set up the radio.

Anyone know what DeJesus did in the futures game? I can't find a box score.

I feel Broxton isn't quite there yet to be a closer he's still a "here I'll throw it as hard as I can & see if you can hit it" type pitcher to be great.

but then again if Broxton is able to hit the corners with his heater & throw off-speed pitches for strikes he can be affective but I'll be on wait & see mode with him.

What is a comparable deal we can offer his Royal Thighness this offseason?

9

2-3 bb

9 -> [ http://tinyurl.com/666d7c ] Included in the pregame will be features on U.S. team third baseman and Indians prospect Wes Hodges and World team shortstop Ivan DeJesus of the Dodgers.

That's what I found while googling for it.

i went to the futures game today, had a great time. dejesus had a hard hit single and a walk and played 2nd base perfectly. elvis andrus started at short for the world team so dejesus moved over for manager tino martinez, who got a standing ovation when interviewed.

7 Florida State was going to convert him to catcher if he returned to school. Do you think the Dodgers plan to do that as well?

10 "I feel Broxton isn't quite there yet to be a closer he's still a "here I'll throw it as hard as I can & see if you can hit it""

Interesting that you say that, because my impression is that most of the time when Broxton gets hit hard, it's because he falls in love with his slider too much and throws it on consecutive pitches, sometimes hanging it.

On ESPN, Joe Morgan and Jon Miller were talking about how no All-Stars play the whole game anymore, and that Carlos Beltran is the only guy to play the whole game in quite some time. Beltran played the entire game at PNC Park in 2006.

I went back and looked for earlier examples, and the examples in the last 20 years besides Beltran are:

1997: Ray Lankford, Brady Anderson
1996: Albert Belle, Lance Johnson
1994: Ripken, Gwynn, Pudge
1991: Bonilla
1990: Canseco, Dykstra
1989: Ozzie, Ruben Sierra
1988: Canseco, Bonilla

15

Yes. During the SEC tourney or CWS games, they said the Dodgers took him with the intention of converting him to catcher.

15 ,18
Another in the long line of Dodger catchers with Italian-sounding last names.

Over the past few decades the All-Star game has gradually turned from a real game into a sort of Little League game where everyone, whether they're good enough or not, has to play so they can keep up their self-esteem.

This, of course, is why the All-Star Game is as boring as reading Uncle Tom's Cabin in Finnish, and also why they ran out of players and had to call a tie.

If the teams halfway seriously tried to win, like they did in the sixties, then I'd look forward to watching it each year. Instead, we get stuff like Tony LaRussa sending up Aaron Rowand to hit instead of Albert Pujols with the game on the line and two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

1977 team:

Yeager28
Garvey28
Lopes32
Cey29
Russell28
Baker28
Monday31
Smith32

everyone of them in their prime. I think more than anything, this is what's wrong with the current team. I hope they allow these guys to get there together as a group. I am willing to wait a few more years.

I don't know if this has been posted before. But this is a pretty amusing video of some guy who does a decent job imitating the batting stances of several Dodgers, past and present.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3S2DO5_zujU

The impression of Shawn Green is especially good.

22
Love the Garvey & Sax imitations.

As an homage to Posnanski's Friday post, in tonight's ESPN game, dynamite's with the Pelfrey, playin' with the bats of the Rockies.

"2008-07-13 13:16:1351. natepurcell
Billingsley doesn't look like he has it today. Fastball is barely breaking 90 so far."

!!

What is Chad's current ERA+ on the season?

25

I should make that proclamation at the beginning of all his starts from now on.

But seriously though, what was I suppose to think when you give up a gap double to GonZO!?!?

26
If the lgERA stays the same, Bills should be at 134.

Dodgers winning -- nice. Chad striking out 13 -- very nice. Dodgers signing Eovaldi -- FANTASTIC!

29

I asked Diamond to find out how much his signing bonus was. I figure it was kind of significant to buy him out of A&M.

The last pitcher we bought out of A&M worked out rather well.

For all the criticism Shawn Green received as a Dodger, his worst OPS for a season was .811.

If Druw put that number up for the 2nd half of the season, we'd all be ecstatic.

Green's only 35. He retired a bit early.
2,003 career hits.

30 -- On draft day, after we picked Eovaldi, I watched his draft video at mlb.com, saw him hitting 93 on the gun, and said, "Yeah, we sign this guy when hell freezes over."

6--That Saito not being able to brush his teeth story is also on the Dodgers home page.

Torre said Broxton is the closer.
Mentioned Kuo could be the set-up man pitching both the 7th/8th.

I actually like that idea better than when Saito is healthy.

Using Kuo in higher leverage situations would be a good thing.

If Saito is DL'ed long term, now would be a good time to bring up Greg Miller and see what he's got.

32 Shawn Green was a defensive liability in right; Andruw Jones is a Gold Glove in center. There's a massive difference in the respective OPSes they would need to be a productive overall player.

For the last five years of his career, Green's production was average or below average for a RF. He didn't retire a bit early; he retired a bit late.

34 "bring up Greg Miller and see what he's got."

I wouldn't mind that. The other option would be to end, or at least postpone, the so-far-unsuccessful attempt to make Meloan a starter.

35--If Juan Pierre can start in LF, and guys like Michael Bourn can start everyday--> I still think there'd be places for Shawn Green in the league.

21
They were awful good in 1974 so we shouldn't have to wait so long.

7
The only time I saw Delmonico play was when he made the error paving the way for the BullDogs.

37
Greg Miller has been beyond piss poor in July.

I agree Toy and by looking at some stats, most were not even performing near the levels of some of the guys getting AB's now. Lopes wasn't on the roster until he was 27. Cey had 2 MLB at bats at Kemps age..etc..

34
Just to start another argument I think Kuo can be a better closer then Broxton. As of right now he is the much better pitcher but then we'd lose the 2 inning dynamite he gives us since Torre(or any manager) wouldn't know how to use a two inning closer.

Also in looking at the stats I came away pretty impressed with Monday and Smith

Smith
156runs
61doubles
30hr
130rbi
.250/.330

Monday at 23
165runs
56doubles
34hr
163rbi
.260/380

Kemp at 23:
122runs
39 2b
26hr
114rbi
.297/.338

Is it just me or, over the last few weeks, has Kuo been throwing his breaking pitches far less often? Like almost never, it seems.

I saw some nasty curves in his last game but overall I think you are right.

40 - Do not ever do that again, or you'll be banned.

45
Reggie Smith was a freak athlete. Injuries cut him down from a HOF career but I guess you could say that for a lot of guys.

48
Jon, is your guest spot on KABC at 7:30 taped or live?

50 - live

10
Necessity is often the mother of invention.
The "Howitzer" is ready.
Pitching the Dodgers have lots of:)

Apparently Erin Andrews was the big hit at the Futures game.

With today's signings plus the Delmonico news, that means the top 15 Dodger draft picks are now in tow.

54 I think the guy (Zach Day) will be a tough sign.

Tonight's Sunday night baseball reminds me to tell you that Shea Stadium's hot dogs aren't that bad. They're Nathan's. I also was a big fan of the popcorn. It tastes pretty good, and I had some low expectations.

Premio sausages.... I was too full to try one but they smelled delectable!

---

Is it safe to say the Dodgers are having a good month? One game out of first place, that's the closest they've been, as far as I know. I've been out a week. Did the Dodgers take first place for a day while I was away?

I miss Dodger Stadium and Dodger Dogs, but gosh darn it, I won't get another crack at it until nearly August!

There are some real nice interviews with Dodgers Tom Lasorda, Steve Sax and Steve Garvey available on WFAN.com.

Sax's is really interesting.

I'm off to shoot hoops, so I won't be able to participate in DT's takeover of KABC, but I hope it goes well.

56 They were tied for first twice this week.

40 48 I'm always curious.

Yay for the win!

I'm always curious

Yeah. At the very least, was the infraction committed by a regular or interloper?

Yes I now want to know what was said!

Wow, talking about the All-Star Game on KABC...hope Jon gets to change the subject.

Link for the show:
http://gateway.andohs.net/player/?sid=966&nid=2920

Jon will be discussing this post probably after the next break.

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1050756.html

Actually, Ken Levine has been saying for a few days that he wonders if the younger players have already reached their potential.

Yeah, every one of them is 25 or under (Ethier is 26), but they've all peaked early.

I'd like to thank KABC for dropping "Love's Theme" in there.

And now Herb Alpert's "Rise" and Apollo 100's "Joy" - KABC, your home for 70s instrumentals.

flash flood emergency broadcast warning!

eek!

(then again, I'm in NY)

And now a flood warning.

Why does this emergency voice always have to sound so scratchy, distant, and scary?

Cue Jon!

dodgerthoughts.com ???

72 I heard that and thought I had a bad internet connection.

74 - Type it in. It works.

66

thats ridiculous.

62 & 60
Joey P brings out the worse in some people. Let's just say a term was used that I had my mouth washed out with soap when I was nine.

That was short. Then again, if it were any longer, I'd hurt my neck from all the nodding.

77
Several writers have expressed that thought. It is silly isn't it. What I really like is when they complain we don't have a Bruce without realizing what a free fall Bruce has undertaken after his tornado start.

well ... we can debrief Jon now ....

80 - Jay Bruce in his last 31 games (124 PAs): 191/234/304/538.
Get it done, that will not.

I lost in the lightning round on Edgar Renteria.

80

But we have a Billingsley!

83

guess that means you will have to resign yourself to Tigerthoughts.com

83 Renteria just has a bad hammy and he is struggling in Detroit, but I would still take him over Wilson, Eckstein, or Scutaro.

83 - I shudder to think the reaction if you had responded positively to Renteria as an option. Seems like they were holding back the pertinent info that he was hurt, like a trap.

83 노믇 ㅐㅜ ㅛㅐㅕ, ㅓㅐㅜ!

83 Jon, at least you didn't sound as depressed as Molly does when she does the LA Times podcast.

88 Uh... forgot to switch languages. Delete, please.

83 -- It was a bad question to begin with. What you are getting in trade can't be assessed independent of the question of what you are giving up.

84 Pitchers don't get writers excited, all they see is a guy one game above .500

90 - No, no, I think you make a hell of a point in 88 .

92

Then "writers" should be looking at other stats.

57

cool. Thanks!

48 Jon Weisman
I think that you should start a site called toast-trash and list all the removed postings.:)

94 Its just not that, pitchers just pitch every 5 games, the story about the first half of the Dodgers is the everyday misery which is the offense. Also, the so-called problems have not been with the young pitchers, it has been with the position players.

97
It is still quite irritating that we have one of the best young pitchers in baseball who historically matches up with any LA Dodger at this point in his career and he is completely ignored as they focus on the ordinary contributions of the young position players.

98 Which, really, are not even ordinary when you include Martin in the mix.

57

Lasorda just said losing Pierre "was a big blow to us"

what!!

Francisco Rodriguez is having a great year, but does he really have to flail, flop and scream after each save?

Ask them if they'll trade for Cesar Izturis again.

100. Lasorda just said losing Pierre "was a big blow to us"

And that is why Lasorda isn't managing anymore.

96 Burnt toast

104 Toasted

just an interloper here...

88 sporky, does that mean you are korean? i thought i was transported to Dodgerthoughts in hangul!

101
You wouldn't mind if those 38 saves of his were for us.

100

The Sax interview, I thought, was very interesting. Mike and the Mad Dog are excellent with baseball interviews even if they "dislike" the Dodgers. Mike Francesa is a Yanks guy, Chris Russo is a passionate Giants fan.

106 Yep. I should blame all my grammar/spelling errors on the fact that English is not my first language.

107 I would mind even if they were for us.

I missed Jon's segment while raining threes at the park. I looked around KABCs website, but I haven't found anywhere to listen to older broadcasts of the Sunday night show. Has anyone else been able to find this?

109 Nice to meet ya...me too. And correct me if i'm wrong, but you're missing a y-chromosome as well? Female-korean-Diehard-Dodger fan - I'm impressed.

Anyonghi jumuseyo. I'm here in the east coast and it's time for bed.

thanks to the board for all the great info...and thank goodness we won this one going into the break!

109 ,112
And...we'll be back in two & two! :)

Speaking of DT females, whatever happened to 2007 DT Day attendee kaydeecee?

104 goofus
molded toast
Dodger Thoughts with mold

112 the rumble in zona is gonna roq!

113 I wondered about that as well, me her & her bestfriend sat next to each other last year.

Old friend Randy Wolf hasn't helped his trade value in the last month or so. He's 1-5 in his last 6 starts with a 7.06 ERA.

Old Pitching Friends (from 2007) Update
Wolf: 6-9, 4.66 ERA, ~83 ERA+
Hendy: 7-7, 6.09 ERA, ~68 ERA+
Tomko: 2-7, 6.79 ERA, 63 ERA+ (on DL with SD)
Seanez: 4-3, 2.40 ERA, 184 ERA+
Wright: 3-3, 5.03 ERA, 84 ERA+

115
I sooo want to drive out to Phoenix next weekend but I will alas be otherwise occupied. Win the series, come home in first.

From Dylan Hernandez:

>>Torre said that he's also learning about his players -- but, more importantly, the players are learning about themselves. "They're finding out their capabilities as individuals," Torre said.

In other words, what they're capable of doing and what they're incapable of doing.

Torre and Bowa seemed particularly pleased with the progress made by Ethier, who leads the Dodgers with 11 home runs.<<

It's called consistent playing time. I'm sure they'd be impressed with Andy, too.

113 Was kady the one who dubbed Nomar Garciaparra "O" "C" "D" ?

I seem to remember that being a woman. I have a feeling Mr. Shimmin could get to the bottom of this, and quick.

Dodgers to Lead the League in Ks
Burleigh Grimes: 1921
Dazzy Vance: 1922-1928! (led MLB in 5 of 7 years)
Van Lingle Mungo: 1936 (led MLB)
Newcombe: 1951 (tied, led MLB)
Drysdale: 1959-1960, 1962 (led MLB all 3 years)
Koufax: 1961, 1963, 1965-1966 (led MLB all 4 years)
Fernando: 1981 (led MLB)
Nomo: 1995

off topic:

Anyone notice Steve Lyons on Radio instead of Rick Monday today? Not that I'm complaining, but why couldn't Rick make it to the mic? I hope he isn't hurt or anything.

118
More troubling stuff from Andruw:

"Jones, who was 0 for 3 on Sunday, blamed his struggles on returning too quickly from a minor league rehabilitation assignment in an effort to make up for the injury to Juan Pierre and on working on a new upright batting stance. Jones said that on Saturday night, he made the mistake of expecting to see fastballs and, as a result, lunged forward at what turned out to be breaking pitches"

122
Just one thing to do then Mr.Jones.
That knee just isn't right. Obviously you tried to come back too soon.
Back to the DL with you now, for your good and the good of the team.
We'll know you're fully healed when you can hit for a .300 BA in Las Vegas along with a home run in every 19 at bats.
Don't worry, we will call you when the time is right.

Good Luck.

Is Repko still on the team?

121 Monday left Friday's game in the 7th inning to catch a plane to his home in Florida. He said someting about visiting the White House over the all-star break.

124
He's on Vegas.

124 He's back playing for Vegas, and doing decently. Not that he impressed in his last stint so he probably wouldn't see much action, but yeah he's available.

Frankly, neither Jones nor Pierre will help the team all that much (although at least Jones is a plus defensively).

Is the Dodgers-DBacks game next Saturday on Fox National?

For anyone wondering what happened to the
"Wonder Years" father, he's now on Lifetime's Army Wives. Bleh. (Sorry to bring up Lifetime again.) {change channel}

128 The entire Dbacks series next weekend is scheduled for KCAL-9.

Next weekend I'll be position to watch all 3 games on KCAL. Hooray for me!

130 That really stinks, here in vegas we get FSN Prime but not KCAL.

131
You mean seated?

thanks guys.

133
There may be some walking around.

123 I just had a vision of Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones at some facility in the desert, playing shuffleboard throughout the month of August.

How can Ken Levine or anyone else know when a young player has "peaked early?" It's completely illogical to say that prospectively.

I hope it was a misheard comment. I like Ken Levine.

I believe this was Nate's question answered by Diamond Leung tonight (speaking of Delmonico):

>>What's up with Tony Delmonico? Can you let us know where they stand on him.

Delmonico, the team's sixth-round pick, agreed to terms today days after his father reportedly said he expected him to stay in school. The Dodgers have now signed all but one of their top 15 draft picks. Tenth-rounder Christopher Joyce is the highest remaining unsigned pick, and the Dodgers have until Aug. 15 to sign the left-hander.<<

137

Yeah I answered my own question before he did.

I want him to get the bonus numbers!

136 Maybe he meant piqued.

128 No. The Dodgers only have two more game on FOX. An August game in Philly and the Sept. 6 game against the D'backs.

I'm thinking of making the trek to Arizona for the Sept 5-7 series. Are there any other DTers out there, besides Lute Olson (who I believe posts as Andrew Shimmin) and Nate?

Andrew can't be Lute Olson. He hasn't sent out a press release to announce his divorce.

138
Nate, have you seen bonus numbers for some of the other picks? Here's what I have so far:

Martin - $1.73m
Lindblom - $663k
Russell - $410k
Gordon - $225k
Caseres - $258k

Did anyone comment on Kyle Russell's departure today after an "injury delay"?

If anyone wants to feel old, Dodger draftee Nathan Eovaldi, who signed today, was born in February 1990.

I post this great piece of news for Bob, as well as humanity in general, but mostly Bob:

"College basketball commentator Billy Packer, who has announced 34 consecutive Final Fours on network television and created a few controversies along the way, will not be returning to CBS for a 28th season, The Miami Herald has learned"

http://www.miamiherald.com/626/story/603901.html

Yessss!

147
Yessss!

Actually, Clark Kellogg will replace Packer, not Marv Albert. :)

I know Packer is a miserable sob, but I'll miss him announcing games.

America's long national nightmare is over. The last Final Four which Packer did not call was 1976. Curt Gowdy worked alongside Dick Enberg.

But Packer worked the year before.

In 1974, it was Gowdy and Tommy Hawkins.

Greg Brock will be sad as he was DT's chapter president of the Billy Packer Marching and Chowder Society.

Packer was informative regarding strategy, etc at times, but his style was so grating and attitude so smug that his positives were massively outweighed by the negatives. he seemed to hate the very sport he covered for so long.

Perhaps ESPN will hire Packer to work NBA games. That would be fulfilling his lifelong dream.

As a broadcaster he was Joe Morgan: Haughty, arrogant, 100% humorless, and a purveyor of opinions that were often rationally indefensible. Like Morgan, he knew a lot about his sport, but let all his misanthropic baggage get in the way.

There are dozens, nay, hundreds of better college basketball announcers around. You can start with Ron Franklin, Verne Lundquist, and Gus Johnson, and go from there.

145 im still a teenager born in '88 and that makes me feel like a grandfather

its weird when you are as old or older than pro athletes, its almost like they lose there allure

today was a load of fun, my third game of the week and a total blast...theres something about getting out to dodger stadium for a win that brings happiness and sense of (most likely) false hope, but still it was fun seeing the offense come alive

his royal thighness was a flame thrower today as well

154
Good comparison to Morgan.

Also, I'm pretty much a big fan of anything Verne Lundquist does. He makes SEC football palatable. Plus, who can forget his epic tour de force in Happy Gilmore?

154 ever since the gonzaga miracle, gus has been my favorite broadcaster...i really wish he would get more air time

For me it's not so much Packer's absence from game broadcasting that I'll celebrate, but his (oh please, oh please) absence from the NCAA selection show. I got really tired of hearing that the 8th place team in the ACC was deserving of a spot while the 2nd place team in (name your favorite conference) was not.

They probably won't need to keep Jim Nantz around as his babysitter anymore either. It often seemed to me that they only had Nantz around for damage control in case Packer said something dumb or offensive. He doesn't strike me as much of a basketball guy and I'd be surprised if he does the games or the selection show next year. He seems much more devoted to golf.

The Final Four: A Tradition Like Some Others

If Nantz isn't calling the Final Four, would his successor have scripted calls for the end of each game.

And what of "One Shining Moment?"

Diamond (from the PE.com website):

Padres pitcher Greg Maddux indicated he would be willing to waive his no-trade clause if the Dodgers try to acquire him for the stretch run for the second time in three seasons.

Asked where Maddux could see himself playing during the final two months of the season, he told MLB.com, "Here (in San Diego) or for the Dodgers, but I don't think the Dodgers need any pitching."

All Padres would rather play for the Dodgers. Maddux is just the only one willing to admit it.

He's right, though; we don't need him. There would be only marginal improvement, if that, by replacing Stults/Park/Kershaw with Maddux.

I wonder if Maddox will ever be a manager. I bet he'd make a good one. I'd take him if LA could get a big LF bat for Lowe and Ethier.

Billingsley
Kuroda
Lowe
Maddux
Kershaw

This is much better than what we have now.

The Padres have four Old Friends on the roster now:
Maddux, Brian Corey, Brian Myrow, and Randy Wolf

That's the most in the majors right now. So, by the David Ross Law of Missing What You Shouldn't But You Do Anyway, the Padres should be the most desirable team for DTers to root for.

Bob is like a pit bull with this Ross thing.

I can somewhat understand Cody, but bringing back David would just get me angry.

I'll get a new act tomorrow.

What mystifies me is why people get upset about the Rosses, but not about the Dodgers releasing Joakim Soria. Not trading. Not waiving. Releasing.

168 As much as I can figure out, he was released after being out for a year after having Tommy John surgery.

And then after one year being in the Padre's farm system, he was not protected by the Padres and was drafted in the Rule V draft in 2006 by the Royals.

Now, he only had one year in Rookie Ball in 2002 before being hurt so I guess there really wasn't much there to say that he had a future in the majors. I don't know the story about minor league rosters to say why the Dodgers would just release him.

It was during the Paul DePodesta and Kim Ng era of running the Dodgers minor league system when Soria was released.

Billy Packer was humorless, arrogant, and the best analyst college basketball had to offer. He didn't preen like Vitale, he didn't blow an artery over an inbound pass like Gus Johnson (an announcer I happen to like).

As much as I enjoy being part of the echo chamber, you guys are way off on Packer. He was outstanding, and I'll miss him.

I think Packer is the only announcer I like that everybody else hates. I roach the hell out of Stephen A. Smith, Sean Salisbury, and Joe Morgan on Deadspin, and kill Rick Monday, Jerry Reuss, and Ted Leitner on DT.

I just thought Packer was good at his job.

As I head off to sleep, I realize I'm going to get crushed for liking Packer.

It's cool.

I've already crushed you ad nauseam for liking Louisa May Alcott, so I'll lay off on the Packer thing. Except to say that you're nuts.

Ugh. I meant Harriet Beecher Stowe. You know, one of those mid-nineteenth century, three-named female authors from New England. They're all the same.

This is what I get for trying to work until four in the morning.

Little Women is terrible!

Starman is on...Now I'm really bummed I'm going to sleep. I love Starman.

"Green light go, red light stop, yellow light go very fast..."

Back in the early 80s, Billy Packer used to do pro minature golf play-by-play. You can't really comment on Packer until you've seen that.

Maddux is the kind of deal Ned would love--heck, he did love it once. Maybe he could get Greene too. And then send Lowe to the Phils for prospects. No, I'm dreaming about that last part.

I usually watch the Dodgers on Prime via Dish Satellite. When KCAL has the broadcast, Prime is blacked out here in the Nevada desert. But in this case, since the game is from Phoenix, it looks like it will come in on the Prime Channel that serves Arizona. Sometimes I can get them that way, sometimes I can't. I can't see logic in it, just a random (non)decision.

So who's everybody taking in the homerun derby?

Hamilton is having a 71 year old former coach throw to him. Braun is having his agent toss for him.

178 I'll take Utley.

178 Or whomever Falkenborg's throwing to ;)

too much bills

So assuming Saito's out, I hope we see Meloan converted back to relief. We're going to need at least one more power arm to join the pen.

Broxton
Kuo
Park/Meloan
Beimel
Wade
Troncoso/?

I'm divided on Park; I like him in the rotation, but if he can bring his stuff to short relief, we just might need it.

There's a home run derby?

Is there any possibility of picking up Dunn in a deal, or do the Reds not match up well with what we/they need? As much as I like Ethier, I would be willing to move him for Dunn. I know it would take more...just saying.

There's an All-Star Game?

183 The Reds desperately need to resign Dunn since the only useful outfielder they have left next year is Jay Bruce. I can't see them moving him without getting something really unfair.

Trading for Dunn without moving Pierre means Kemp will have to share time with Andruw and Pierre. Unless, of course, he plays everyday for Cincinnati. Either way, no thank you.

A Pierre/Dunn platoon in LF would be interesting.

162 Maddux has had 20 starts this year and he's done OK. Most starts are 6-7 innings. He had a stretch of 7 consecutive starts (May 20 - June 20) in which he gave up 1 or 2 ER's in each of them.

My concern is that he has been hammered 3 times this year (6 or more runs) and 2 of the 3 are in his most recent 4 starts. His season ERA went from 3.17 to 4.04 in those 2 starts. His most recent 2 starts were better. He held the Marlins to 1 ER in 6 IP and the Braves to 3 ER in 7 IP.

If Penny is healthy I would pass on him. If Brad is done for the next month or more and Maddux is cheap (salary dump) I'd take him.

187

If Pierre's split is a pinch runner, yes. That's such a perfect role, given Torre's love of speed in key situations I cant figure out why they don't try that.

187 What if you have them both in LF simultaneously?

190 That's what I was thinking. Like a Left Field Master Blaster.

184

Exactly

From the LV Review Journal
Schmidt, 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA in four rehab starts for Las Vegas, left after 63 pitches (41 strikes) as he continued his comeback from career-threatening shoulder surgery."He got some balls up early and got his pitch count up really early," Bundy said. "Health-wise, he seemed to come out of it OK so that's a positive."

95 games seems like an awful lot before the all-star break.

Everyone ready for a second half OF of Pierre/Jones/Kemp?

From MLBTraderumors.com:

"The other issue is Sabathia's preference. Sabathia has some talkative friends, because they're always being anonymously quoted. Davidoff talked to "two people familiar with his thinking," who see him choosing the NL and the West Coast. The Dodgers are named as his first choice."

The Dodgers had played 89 games before the ASB last year. It was 88 in 2006. 87 in 2005. 86 in 2004.

I think the extra games are just a factor of how the calendar worked out. The All-Star Game is usually on the second Tuesday of July. But this year, July 1 was a Tuesday and I assume that MLB didn't want to have the All-Star game on July 8 because it would be too close to the 4th of July weekend and travel would be difficult, especially with people trying to get to New York. Hotel space would be at a premium.

So the game was pushed back a week.

I'm just speculating.

Maddux? We don't need no stinkin' Maddux. We don' got to show you no stinkin' Maddux!

===

Btw, new post up on MLBTraderumors posts to a Newsday story:

>>Newsday's Ken Davidoff has an interesting take on the Yankees' chances of signing CC Sabathia this winter. He finds the Yankees an unlikely match for the big lefty, for a couple of reasons.

{snipped}

The other issue is Sabathia's preference. Sabathia has some talkative friends, because they're always being anonymously quoted. Davidoff talked to "two people familiar with his thinking," who see him choosing the NL and the West Coast. The Dodgers are named as his first choice.

Perhaps the Yankees will sign a decent starting pitcher who does not require a $100MM outlay - Derek Lowe or Ryan Dempster, for example.<<

196 Darnit! Too slow.

Any word on when Saito's MRI is happening? I'm assuming he's going on the DL. Just hope it isn't something really bad/long term.

Wonder who they'll call up. Could either be the return of Kershaw, or they'll call up yet another reliever, though I feel like they're starting to run out of halfway decent ones. I pray we don't see Tanyon Sturtze.

196 (Drool)

194 especially when you lose more than half of them

200

Id love to be wrong, but assume he is done. 38 year old pitcher shaking his hand and holding his elbow after a 95 mph fastball-> highly likely he's out a while, if not career over.

198 i'm with the yanks on this one, i'd rather see the dodgers re-sign lowe than go after CC

Having not seen Saito get injured, did it look that bad? Is that why everyone is preparing for the worst?

Russell Martin is already 13th on the LA Dodger list for walks by a catcher, with 53. He's on pace for 90 free passes, which would break Joe Ferguson's record of 87, set in 1973 (although Ferguson did play 20 games in the OF that year).

What I found interesting is the next Dodger catcher for Martin to pass is USC baseball coach extraordinaire Chad Kreuter, who amazingly had 54 walks in only 271 PA in 2000.

Kreuter combined with Todd Hundley for one of the best Dodger catching seasons ever, combining for a .276/.393/.509, 132 OPS+ line. If I remember correctly, Todd Hundley that year was the first opposing batter to score a "splash hit" at Elster Park in San Francisco.

With their hitting prowess, Kreuter's protectiveness of his cap and teammates (evidenced in May at Wrigley Field), and an 8-year minor leaguer finally finding an edge to stay in the majors beyond a cup of coffee, the 2000 Dodger catching crew was not one to be messed with.

205 it wasn't bad, i'm thinking (maybe optimistically) it's a peavy situation. saito feels scary arm pain, goes on the dl for a month and comes back brand new.

205 he threw a pitch, than shook his arm like it was numb.

205
It didn't "look" bad. Saito just kind of shook his arm after the pitch in question.

I was more worried about the can't pick up his toothbrush story.

200. From a pure fan perspective, I'd like to see Kershaw called up and Park moved to the bullpen if Saito goes on the DL. Then move Guo to the setup role to pitch high leverage 8th inning situations with Broxton to close. vr, Xei

209 i remember peavy saying something very simular about his elbow injury this year, along the lines it hurt to brush his teeth.

Ferguson had 75 walks while playing catcher in 1973, 11 as an outfielder, and one as a pinch hitter.

Martin has 4 walks as a third baseman.

210- That's what I'm hoping for, too. Park and Kuo give them some flexibility there. And since Penny isn't ready to come back...

I think if it hurts for these pitchers to brush their teeth, they should really switch to a different brand of toothpaste.

210
I'd like to see that as well.

212
That would move Piazza's 80 walks as catcher in 1996 to the top spot. I stretched to include those that played at least half their games as catcher for purposes of my search.

Maddux can't pitch outside of Petco any more, he'd just be David Wells part two.

On Saturday night after the game I was listening to Dodgertalk and they were talking about the Dodger GM situation. Steve Lyons mentioned Logan White, and that he was the guy responsible for Martin, Loney, Kemp, Billinghsley, etc. Maybe the thought is in the pipeline now that Logan White would be a good in-house replacement for Ned Colletti.

LA Dodger walks as a catcher, revised list:

1) Piazza (1996) - 80
2) Ferguson (1973) - 75
3) Scioscia (1985) - 74
4) Piazza (1997) - 68
5) Martin (2007) - 67
6) Scioscia (1986) - 61
7) Roseboro (1961) - 55
7) Ferguson (1974) - 55
9) Scioscia (1987) - 54
9) Scioscia (1990) - 54
11) Kreuter (2000) - 52
12) Roseboro (1959) - 50
12) Roseboro (1962) - 50
12) Scioscia (1989) - 50
15) Scioscia (1984) - 49
15) Martin (2008) - 49

214. Bob, are you auditioning for a gig at a comedy club? vr, Xei

This isn't really news, but the Dodgers have been blessed with great offensive catchers. Since they've moved to LA, there have been 63 individual seasons in which a catcher (50% of time at C at least) had 400 PA and a 100 OPS+.

The Dodgers have accounted for 23 of those seasons:

Roseboro, Scioscia, Piazza - 5 each
Ferguson - 3
Haller, Martin - 2 each
Yeager - 1

Despite scuffling to a sub-500 record at the All-Star break, I would still predict/bet the Dodgers win the NL West, based mostly on my own foolish heart and of course the complete awfulness of the division in general. So now that we have nearly a week to contemplate our team's fate without any actual baseball to discuss, what is everyone's biggest question regarding the second half of the season?

Mine is simple - what will Torre do about Jones? At this point, I don't think there's a soul around that believes Jones is going to rebound to even a replacement level hitter. So what's going to happen? Are we really going to keep trotting this guy up to the plate every night and watch him post one of the worst season's in history? The alternative is also rather unpalatable - benching the highest paid player in the history of the Dodgers due to complete and utter incompetence.

With four line-up slots being taken up by Jones, Pierre, Berroa/Maza, and post-April DeWitt for much of the first half, we are lucky to have even a dim hope of making the playoffs. But if the Jones situation doesn't improve, we can kiss even the dismal NL West title goodbye.

wow, I'm gone for the weekend and Sammy gets hurt. That's not exactly the kind of news a guy wants to hear when returning.

Trying to be more positive, I just took a look at the schedule for the remainder of the season, with the unbalanced schedule and so many games left within the division, I have this sneaking suspicion that either the Dodgers or Snakes are going to run away with this division. Hopefully it will be the good guys.

221
At this point, I don't think there's a soul around that believes Jones is going to rebound to even a replacement level hitter

I think Jones can be replacement level, maybe even a bit better, although I admit my confidence is waring thin. However, I have been accused of not having a soul so your statement may still be true.

220
http://www.truebluela.com/2008/1/24/121538/622

The Pirates are our main competition for best catchers since we started our run as the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Is there much history of mid season GM turnover in LA? can't recall past the last couple....

200 My money's on Kershaw, with Park moving to the pen. I wouldn't, however, rule out Koplove.

If the latter occurs, Jon might need to invoke a new rule against obvious puns at the expense of his name.

223 if you don't have a soul, then neither do I...I think this is as good as it gets for Jones for the rest of his contract...

when I see him bailing on slow curves on the outside of the plate from a guy who isn't even throwing sidearm...

and he say he was looking for a fastball...he can keep looking, it'll never happen again...the word is out throughout baseball, he can't hit a curve...

210 I'd like to see that as well, but because it makes sense, torre most definitely wont make it happen.

now Jones is quoted as saying the Dodgers shouldn't have rushed him from rehab because they needed him cause Pierre got hurt...that takes the cake...no personal responsibility for reporting fat and complacent...

223 Plenty of souls think Schmidt will never rebound to replacement level.

I wonder if Ben Sheets and Cliff Lee have the shortest combined names (17 letters) of any All-Star starting duo in history.

225
Both Fred Claire and Kevin Malone were handing pink slips in mid-season.

227 as opposed to the fastball or change-up he can hit?

now Jones is quoted as saying the Dodgers shouldn't have rushed him from rehab

I guess they shouldn't have rushed him out of spring training either.

Campanis too

When was the last GM pink slipped with his team within a game of 1st place?

I recall the story being that Jones asked to come back early.

231
Only two other pitchers with 3-letter surnames have started the All-Star Game: Charlie Lea and Vern Law.

Law started against Whitey Ford. 17 letters appears to be a tie.

That was All-Star Game, Part Deux in 1960.

229 Can someone else take care of the punchline, please?

Jim Palmer & Vida Blue (1978) also combined for 17 letters, as did Vida Blue & Dock Ellis in 1971. If only Ellis went by "Doc"!

Dave Steib & Mario Soto (1983) combined for 18 letters, as did Bob Feller & Whit Wyatt in 1941.

1978 was another 17 letter combo with Jim Palmer facing Vida Blue.

And you can argue for 1973 if you say it was Jim Hunter facing Rick Wise.

Maybe Jones should try hitting left handed. It can't go any worse. vr, Xei

September is a very easy schedule for the Dodgers. The key will be staying in it during August.

Dodgers play the Phillies 8 games.
Arizona 6 games
Brewers 3 games
Cardinals 3 games.

204 What's your reasoning for that preference?

1947 may be the longest names with Hal Newhouser facing Ewell Blackwell.

When was the last GM pink slipped with his team within a game of 1st place?

When was last team to be 3 games under .500, and be within a game of 1st?

Or moreso, when is the last time the Dodgers were 3 games under .500, and had a 120+ mils payroll at the break.

we are looking at this all wrong...the Dodgers are on a winning streak as we enter the break

246
To continue your trend when was the last team to have so much money on the DL and still be within a game of 1st place. We can go back and forth all day if you want.

245
Jack Morris v. Fernando Valenzuela (1984) was 28 letters.

Gaylord Perry v. Andy Messersmith (1974) and Mark Langston v. Terry Mullholland (1993) were 27 letters.

249
So work is really really really boring right now?

245 ,249
If Todd Stottlemyre's dad went by his given name, 1969 would take the cake.

250
A keen and astute observation, sir!

244 $90 million dollars for martin, loney, kemp, bills, brox. i'm guessing that would be the difference between the contracts of CC and Lowe, and although young and no injury histroy problems any pitching for 7 years and 9 figures is a huge risk. lowe is a sinker ball pitcher (tend not to have as many arm problems) who is dependable and will give you a 110+ ERA+. Or even not sign any of them (bills, kuroda, penny, kershaw, mcdonald). we need to save our resources for a legitimate impact bat (although none seem to be available, and our current OF log-jam will make it difficult.)

At least I'm off work today.

When was the last time an Established Ace entering his prime was a free agent?

247 I know you're being a bit facetious but the Dodgers are having a good July at least, and finished the stretch of tough 20 straight games without a day off a couple of games over .500, which isn't super exciting, but it's better than some may have feared.

255
Maddux?

I don't know about GMs, but Pat Corrales was fired as manager of the Phillies in 1983 when the team was in first place.

A lot of people don't seem too concerned with Saito's arm pain but from what I saw, it's scary. Any numbness associated with throwing is scary especially when felt in the extremities (which it appeared to do for Saito). When the training staff initially approached him and felt his arm, he grimaced when they rubbed his ulnar nerve/ligament. If his arm is strucutrally damaged in that area its Tommy John time, and probably the end of his career.

257
Maddux was entering his age 27 season when he signed with Atlanta, and was coming off a Cy Young and already had 95 wins and a 115 ERA+ to that point in his career.

255 Zito?

When The Big Unit was traded to Houston at the top of his game, who did Seattle get in return?

Anyone hear the news about Budweiser's buyout today?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080714/ap_on_bi_ge/anheuser_busch_inbev;_ylt=AgavvVd61jSHI5rob1RPmCCs0NUE

Such a sad day. I thought Budweiser was too big to be owned by some foreign entity.

262 freddy garcia, carlos guillen, and jeremey hermida.

This may be a bad day for Saito depending on how his MRI goes.

It's already a bad day for Billy Packer. The LA Times is reporting he's out as CBS's basketball analyst. Clark Kellogg is taking his place.

260 It seems it has been a while.

261 He sure got Ace money.

Sign me up for throwing the bank at CC. I'd like to see Pat "The Bat" wearing Dodger blue, also.

264 John Halama (a PTBNL) was the third player in the Randy Johnson trade, not Jeremy Hermida

263 it's just a beer company

265 See 146 for more Billy Packer related sadness/rejoicing.

267 At first I thought, "Jeremy Hermida was traded when he was playing Pony?". I wish baseball teams were like European futbol teams in that respect.

267 ha my mistake, that's what i meant to type but i still have the marlins on my mind i guess.

268
I, for one, am awaiting the Dodgers first trip to play in beautiful InBev Stadium in St. Louis.

263. How did their stock do?
vr, Xei

266 Is Pat the Bat an upcoming free agent?

263 Theme parks are for sale. Can't imagine, "InBev Gardens".

Does this mean the quality of their beer will be raised to "drinkable" now?

Maybe they'll start having Stella Artois on tap.

276 It's a matter of taste. Obviously a lot of people like it.

274
Yes.

276. Are you suppose to drink beer for the taste? vr, Xei

277 Then who would buy the Swillweiser?

I guess it's safe to say that William Vanlandingham never started an All Star game?

279 I would love to see him in Dodger Blue although I could see stiff competition from the Sox and Mets.

282 He pitched like and All-Star against the Dodgers. At least once.

282. Willy V faced Todd Hollandsworth 15 times. And Mark Grudzielanek 16 times.

Fun with BaseballReference.com

I would like Burrell, too (though I recall some rumors of the Dodgers trying to trade for him last season if I'm not mistaken). The thing is, Colletti and Co are going to have to find a taker for Pierre (they're certainly not for Jones, unless he decides to quit baseball). So I can't see them going for another FA outfielder unless they can unload one of the other albatross contracts.

How many times has a Castro faced a Batista?

283 Isn't Holliday becoming a FA this year? I would definitely throw a fortune his way before Burrell.

277. That would be appropriate. I've always thought of Stella as Belgian for "Budweiser."

There are so many (so so many) fantastic Belgian beers readily available in the U.S. (because they're high in alcohol, they ferment in the bottle, and can stay on the shelf for years, improving).

Stella Artois is not one of them. Stella and AB are made for each other.

288
Holliday won't be a FA until after 2009.

I knew that would get a reaction from GoBears.

283 Me too. It must be a May 15th thing.

Or am I thinking of someone else?

290 holliday's career splits
home- .364/.427/.659/1.086
away- .277/.341/.449/.790

i'm not saying, i'm just saying.

Miguel Batista faced:
Bernie Castro, who was 1 for 3
Juan Castro, who was 1 for 9 with 5 Ks
Ramon Castro, who was 0 for 2

Worthwhile free agents this year: Sabathia, Sheets, Ellis, Hudson, Teixiera, Dunn, Burrell, Bradley, K-Rod

293 Just neutralize the stats, don't go with the road numbers.

183 - "There's a home run derby?"

What's a home run?

296 huh?

293/296 - What about his numbers at Dodger Stadium though? Worrisome? (Not that I would mind him in Dodger blue, either.)

298 nm

To be fair what are Burrell's stats away from band box park?

296
Rockies hitters are usually not quite as good as their home numbers would indicated nor as bad as their road numbers either.

There is a red button at B-R that does this for you. Holliday in a neutral environment last year hits 32 homers and has an OPS of 944.

293 I'm an old guy so humor me. Seriously, what does i'm not saying, i'm just saying mean?

297

Nice. I have tried to be optimistic about Jones, but seeing him flail away at the outside curve is really discouraging. I don't think any thinking pitcher is going to be offering him fastballs any time soon.

And from earlier, K-Rod's response is quite annoying when he saves a game. But it is not as annoying as the Angels announcers.

Pat the Bat's neutralized career numbers are .259/.370/.492. He's hitting a neutralized .276/.406/.577 this year.

We still have a pretty good system:

Scott Elbert
James McDonald
Ivan DeJesus Jr.
Ethan Martin
Bryan Morris
Andrew Lambo
Chris Withrow

303 well, in my statement i meant it as, i'm not saying he's not good, i'm just saying here are the numbers that may concern you.

i guess it would've been better served to type that out.

I'm assuming Kershaw will graduate really soon.

Holliday's neutralized career: .306 .370 .525
Holliday's neutralized season: .332 .416 .544

I think I'd rather wait for Holliday in '09, not even factoring in age difference.

305 Quality player that Pat the Bat is.

Burrell in 2008

Home: .246/.371/.455/.826
Away: .308/.440/.712/1.152

311 Thats insane.

My problem with K-Rod isn't that he's disrespecting the game or anything, it's just that he looks ridiculous. Seriously, man, calm down.

Can anyone who listened to Jon give a small recap of what they talked about? Thanks.

What should the Dodgers do for the second half?

Jones is the biggest challenge facing the Dodgers. Should they bench him or release him or keep him for purely defensive purposes? Right now he is a bigger out than anything going on at any other position.

If they trade for Matt Holiday and his 14 HR and 51 RBI playing in Coors Field they probably give up Ethier and others leaving a need for Jones in CF. And when Pierre comes back he would have to either play left or CF assuming Kemp plays right.

Kent and his stiff back will probably repeat his first half and that is not good enough. Kent needs to be traded to the Yankees where he can play a little first and mostly DH.

I would like to see what LaRoche can do at second base and I am also willing to trade him if he adds equal value back to the Dodgers--whatever that is.

Hopefully Nomar can play short until Hu can come back ready and able to hit and if by that time LaRoche isn't cutting it at second, I would play De Jesus at second.

So by mid August I can see the Dodgers going with the best defense, best pitching, and enough hitting to accomplish something in the playoffs.

Martin, Loney, DeJesus, DeWitt, Hu, Ethier, Jones, and Kemp.

302 When I push the button, the numbers don't change. The batting stats are highlighted in gray, but the numbers don't seem to change.

309 Ned Coletti waits for no man.

315 Give it a sec.

291. Yeah, I knew you were poking the Bear. Still, some of the kids need ejukatin.

317 Ohhh okay. Thanks.

314 playoffs!?! did you say playoffs!?!

311 Holy mackerel. Slugging 712 on the road! Wow...

314 so you are saying you want the Dodgers to go young with their lineup...wait, they already have gone young with their lineup...even when Delwyn isn't in...

What is the consensus on Pat the Bat's defense?

322 - I am saying the Dodgers will have better players inhouse than Kent and Nomar by mid August. And I am saying the Dodgers seem boxed in regarding trades for an outfielder and their best bet for a big bat is adding an outfielder.

313

Of course, someones idea of disrespecting the game is subjective. I don't mind pitchers celebrating after a tough save...but he acts like it is the World Series or an olympic gold, imo. It would just get tiresome to watch every time if I followed the Angels...kind of like Jones' smile after a strikeout.

But, K-Rod is just being a "gamer". Has anyone else seen those ads for SF?

and I am saying that as long as Torre is here, Jones, Pierre, Kent, Nomar play if available

The problem with "neutralized" numbers is that they really don't tell you what you need to know. Playing 100 games in the parks of the NL West are going to generate numbers that are very different than playing 100 games in the NL Central. Not just because you're going to see better pitching in the NL West (Dodgers, D'backs, Giants, and Padres) but also because the stadiums tend to be more pitcher friendly (Dodger Stadium, Petco, Phone Company Park).

289 GoBears

I am not a big Stella fan or anything but to call it budweiser, that's just wrong. Also I enjoy a good triple and double on a regular basis but that doesn't mean that I can't enjoy a decent lager/pilsener, be it Bitburger, Harp's or even a Stella on a hot summers day, is it that you find this style of beer to be useless or are there forms of lagers/pilseners that you find tolerable?

Matt Holliday at Dodger Stadium, career:

AVG .234 OBP .299 SLG .363 OPS .662

Pat Burrell:

AVG .273 OBP .373 SLG .511 OPS .884

I can't believe Brian Wilson has crossed his arms to make an X 25 times this year. Now that guy needs to stop celebrating.

I can give K Rod the benefit of the doubt because he has ring in box and plays on a good team.

329 very interesting comparison, but aren't those numbers against Dodger pitching? if either one of them were on the Dodgers, they wouldn't be facing our pitchers, would they? so its kind of meaningless

330 and go back to singing

327 Which is the point of that, it takes whatever environment you were in and neutralizes everyone to the same thing.

323 Quite possibly the worst defender in baseball. Manny, Burrell, and Dunn tend to run away with the title for worst left fielder.

329 Just remember that Tomko's numbers at Dodger Stadium were used to justify his signing. Almost all that stuff is small sample size.

My fear about releasing Andruw Jones can be summed up in two words: Jim Edmonds.

DFA'ing Jones could put the Dodgers in the position of paying the remainder of $36 million for a guy who could well start hitting homers again for an opponent.

My Jones plan would be to put him back on the DL, and then when he returns, introduce him into the lineup gradually, and don't just give him back his job full-time until he's had a few good games and many successful at-bats. See if Mattingly can help him. Pressure his agent to get him on a conditioning program: No more of this crap about how being heavy gives him more power.

Like Pierre, Jones is a sunk cost and will take up a place on our roster til the end of the contract. Nothing to be done about that. That doesn't mean we need to play either of them full-time. Our GM and manager need to understand that maximizing the value of investments like these should not involve magical thinking, but instead a hard-headed analysis of how we can put these assets to their highest and best use.

Crying about how overpaid they are for what they give us is crying over spilt milk. Throwing either of them away is as much of an overreaction as the decision to sign them in the first place. Believe me, after this weekend, I'm sorely tempted to put Jones on a slow boat to China. But that would be a mistake.

333 That's what I thought.

I caught some CNBC at lunch and they were interviewing one of the executives with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Most of their upper management are ex-Wall Street guys, not just Friedman the GM.

323 ,333
Plus/Minus, 2006-2008
Manny: -68 (ranked 30th, 29th & 30th among MLB LF)
Burrell: -61 (29th, 31st, 28th)
Dunn: -48 (28th, 32nd, 22nd)

333 - then, in my opinion, neutralized stats are completely worthless. To use a political comparison, it's like a poll with a "generic" ballot, you get to idealize the candidates. Same thing with these neutralized stats. They are based on an imaginary ballpark and imaginary pitchers rather than, you know, reality.

Granted, the unbalanced schedule (which I am not going to rail against today) along with inter-league play (which I am also not going to rail against today) creates all sorts of sample size issues, but I'd see rather see how a player has done in a couple of actual stadiums rather than an imaginary one.

334--Plus, I dont think you can compare hitters or pitchers to how they do at DS, bc they were in fact facing either Dodger pitcher, or Dodger hitting.

Tomko probably did look good shutting down the 2003 Dodgers, as did anyone.

Holiday probably struggled against Dodger pitching, not necessarily the ball park.

334 - I agree to an extent, except at least in Burrell's case that the numbers are so positive, and in 88 at bats (which is small but not so small it's meaningless), is still kind of interesting and impressive, given the Dodgers pitching and Dodger Stadium.

328

I'm with you on this one. Comparing Stella Artois to Budweiser is like equating Pilsner Urquell to Miller Lite. They may look the same in the glass, but that's where the similarities end.

So with a week off from the Dodgers, maybe we can turn this into Liquid Libations Talk.

What 5 drinks would you choose if you were stranded on a desert island with a small but limited bar (because, you know, that's like a real possibility, right?)?

331 - I think the better stats would be how a particular player has fared in other stadiums within the division.

Of course, this whole conversation is based on the assumption that past results are indicative of future performance.

338 - Wow, that is really bad. Even worse than I thought. Sounds like he should be a DH after his contract expires.

338
FYI, Raul Ibañez was the man in the middle, placing 30th among LF in 2007 with a -25 plus/minus.

338 thanks eric, always appreciate when you post the actual numbers.

337 Gosh, so smart numbers people find major league baseball a trivially easy arena to compete in, when the competition is "baseball men." Who could have guessed.

335 "DFA'ing Jones could put the Dodgers in the position of paying the remainder of $36 million for a guy who could well start hitting homers again for an opponent."

I hear this sort of thing a lot, and I can never quite understand it. If he starts doing well for another team, so what? It doesn't affect the Dodgers in any way, except for whatever few games he might play against the Dodgers. (How many games has Edmonds faced San Diego since they released him?) The issue should be whether we think he's going to be able to play well for the Dodgers. All other factors should be irrelevant.

(Note: In this specific case, I don't think there's any way we should release Jones. I'm just saying that if we did, fear of him signing with another team should be very, very far down on the list of considerations.)

342 In order of importance:

1) Water
2) Orange Juice
3) Milk (for baking)
4) Cranberry Juice
5) Apple Juice

That was easy.

339 I'm not saying nuetralized stats are some amazing thing, but it's a heck of a lot better than using road numbers to figure out how a player will do when they leave the team.

Matt Holliday's road numbers get unfairly penalized because he doesn't get to play 11% of his road games at Coors like everyone else in the division. Combine this with players doing slightly worse on the road and it's why players in a hitters park tends to have really terrible road numbers.

339
In the case of the Rockies, they play equal number of games against NL West opponents at home and on the road, so it's easy to figure their park factor. Obviously the pitching matchups will not always work out (i.e. facing Peavy 3 times but Randy Wolf 6 times or something like that) but for the most part these things even out.

And according the Baseball-Reference.com (free Play Index until July 19!), "Interleague games are not used in the calculation. They really mess things up because in some games the teams have the DH and in others they don't. These series are also typically not home and home series."

349
I like that you have thought to bake on a desert island. Or would that be a dessert island?

340 Matt Holliday has played 65 games against the Dodgers, 32 at Dodger Stadium and 33 at Coors Field.

He has 134 plate appearances (ABs and BBs) at Dodger Stadium and 133 at Coors Field.

Here are his splits.

Home: .429/.489/.840 (11 HR in 133 PA)
Dodger Stadium: .234/.299/.363 (3 HR in 134 PA)

While there could some accounting for how Coors Field affects visiting pitchers, if Dodger pitching was so good at home, shouldn't they have this type of affect on other good offensive players in the league?

352
If I were ever stranded on Dessert Island, I'd like to think I wouldn't have to do my own baking.

While I like to watch players like Dunn, Manny, and Burrel swing the bat I also cringe when I see these guys play left field. I'm sure it all has to do with the image of Greg Luzinski unable to make a play on the Mota fly ball that helped engineer the Dodgers into the World Series. Greg Luzinski's did many things to help the Phillies get to the NLCS but that is the lasting image I will always have of him.

While Ethier is not great I admire how he does everything well and I'm in no hurry to find a replacement LF for him.

I have no problem with K-Rod's celebrations, except for when he does it against my team, because it means they lost.

Hey, anybody have any info on Robert Blevins?

His numbers were looking pretty darn good at Great Lakes (35.1 IP, 1.72 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 42 SO, 10 BB, 0 HR)... then he he got hurt and now has been out for a long time... anybody know about the extent of his injury?

342
My 5 drinks:

1) Water
2) Iced Tea
3) (Naked) Orange Juice
4) Newcastle
5) Margarita (blended of course -- I know, I'm a woman)

355. I agree. I don't think Ethier will ever be a Superstar, but I can see him being really solid for his career and put up very respectable numbers. If he could see the ball the way he's seeing it over the last couple of weeks with a little more frequency, then he could become a superstar-type of player. I seem to remeber his first year where he was a hitting machine, but mostly singles. Now, even his singles seem like they're hit a lot harder. Hoipefully he keeps progressing.

355
My brother always likes to tell me Luzinski would play about 20 feet from the LF line, with his back turned toward CF, because anything hit "behind" him would be caught by Garry Maddox.

He's got to be embellishing, but I always wonder by how much.

For being a non elite pitcher, that Derek Lowe signing has got to be one of the best free agent pitcher signings in the last 20 years.

I still cant believe we are about to get 4 years of #2 starter's numbers from him.

352 354 Terry Forster once filmed a music video in which he was stranded on a dessert island.

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1119787/index.htm

358 i think if you put america on a lie ditector 95% would prefer their margarita blended.

353 Say we have these two sets of numbers:

139 PA .270/.338/.603
142 PA .169/.296/.347

You'd think that whatever split that was, there'd be some greater meaning in that, correct? There'd be stories about how awesome this player is doing one thing, and how terrible he is doing something else.

All this is is Ryan Howard's first 142 PA versus his last 139 PA this year. Small sample size is a lot bigger than you would think. I think Rob posted at one point that numbers aren't statistically relevant at all before 200 PA and even then they only have a 10% correllation with end of the season numbers.

I have no problem with K-Rod's celebrations because it means the Angels won.

363 Then 95% of America are women.

346 would you be able to give a quick explaination on how the +/- is calculated? doesn't need to be elobarate just a general idea.

361
I was visiting a friend in SF, and was waiting for the BART when I got the Lowe news. I was pretty upset at the time, more due to the money, but you're right: he has been outstanding.

Funny note: at the time of Lowe's signing, Kaz Ishii was still a Dodger.

342

water
coffee
iced tea
scotch
scotch

366
I'd like to visit that country/island!

361
That is true. Of the notable free agents signed by the Padre just about every year has produced numbers in line or better then the salary.
Except for Odalis, I hate it when Odalis gets in the way. Almost as much as I hated watching him pitch in the playoffs.

348 My only point was Edmonds is now hitting pretty well, doing about what San Diego expected of him. It turns out he wasn't "done," he just started the season in a slump. It happens.

At this point, Jones has earned a spot on the bench, but not on the bricks.

367
From www.fieldingbible.com:

"Video Scouts at BIS review video of every play of every major league game and record detailed information on each play, such as the location of each batted ball, the speed, the type of hit, etc. Using this in-depth data, we're able to figure out how each player compares to his peers at his position.

"A player gets credit (a "plus" number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season, and he loses credit (a "minus" number) if he misses a play that at least one player made. The size of the credit is directly related to how often players make the play. Each play is looked at individually, and a score is given for each play. Sum up all the plays for each player at his position and you get his total plus/minus for the season. A total plus/minus score near zero means the player is average. A score above zero is above average and a negative score is below average."

342 and 358

Let's assume the basics, like water, milk (or at least coconut milk), and juice are covered. What are the drinks that aren't necessarily good for you (e.g. alcoholic or caffeinated) that you would really miss?

I'd go with:
1. Negra Modelo (with lime preferably): perfect for those warm weather climes
2. Pilsner Urquell
3. Anchor Steam
4. coffee (it needs to be good but I'm not particularly picky, e.g. it doesn't need to have passed through a civet's digestive tract)
5. Tanqueray & tonic: to fend off malaria of course

366 :
"Greg Luzinski was the worst outfielder I ever saw, bar none. ... He played with his back turned toward center field, sort of officially notifying Maddox that he considered anything hit to his left Maddox's responsibility. ... It was like having Herman Munster playing left field."
- New Bill James Historical Abstract

364 Okay, this is mixing and matching 5 different ballparks and whole bunch of pitchers but Holliday has over 500 PA against the NL West both home and away.

140 Road Games - 592 PA .256/.313/.406 (13 HR)

141 Home Games- 568 PA .360/.417/.673 (33 HR)

(That was for 360 , actually.)

342 Nowadays, since I'm all done with alcohol and coffee:

1) Brewed, unsweetened iced tea, black or green. (Trader Joe's sells these big containers of green and white tea, and Tejave is good too.)
2) Hot tea, green (Trader Joe's pomegranate green tea is a good one but any will do.)
3) Hot tea, black w/milk. I like it strong, like my rightfielders.
4) Sparkling water. Gerolsteiner is the best.
5) Low-fat milk

If I was throwing caution to the wind, however:

1) Elite tequila on the rocks with lime
2) Jack Daniels
3) A great central coast Cabernet
4) Root beer
5) I'd still want that TJ green & white ice tea

late on Bills speed yesterday, but from what I saw, he was throwing a lot of cutters and tight sliders. Great movement in the 86 - 88 mph range.

I can't drink whisky anymore. My body rejects it.

I can't drink whiskey either.

380 Then send the good stuff my way:

My island libations would include:
1.) Whiskey, Knob Creek
2.) Grey Goose Vodka and Red Bull, this would be used to seduce the island women.
3.) Dr. Pepper
4.) Chocolate Milk
5.) Grape Kool Aid, OOOHH YEAH!

379 he was in the 91-94 range many times.

374 Why do we always assumed a desert island is warm? Are there no desert islands near the Arctic Circle? I believe there might be thousands.

And when we say "desert island," why do we always imagine a tropical island? The tropics couldn't be less like the desert.

/channeling the spirit of George Carlin

357
Have been unable to find out anything about his injury. He had been pitching in relief and then made his first and last start on May 30th and was outstanding as he k'd 10 in 6 innings.

374 Mmm.... Anchor Steam. The Liberty Ale made by Anchor is probably my favorite beer.

380 381 There's two natepurcells, and they're talking to each other!

2.) Grey Goose Vodka and Red Bull, this would be used to seduce the island women.

I can't afford the Goose but my Vodka Red Bull adventures have been awesome lately.

Is anyone attending the AZ series?

376--I think you're going to have a tough time arguing Holiday is only good bc he plays in Coors.

379 I was at yesterday's game. It must have been apparent on TV, too, that Chad was in total command, with Zen-like concentration. A power Maddux. What I liked was, he knew just what to do with the big lead they hitters gave him. Work fast and throw strikes. Don't even let them think about getting back in the game.

If it weren't for all those stupid losses on his W-L record, he'd be in the All-Star game and well on his way to consideration for Cy Young.

With the emerging pitchers on the Dodgers, Giants, Padres and 'Zona, the pathetic NL West is about to become the frightening NL West, especially in short series. If the Dodgers, D-backs or Giants somehow stumble into the playoffs, I wouldn't bet much against them going on a flukish pitching-fueled run to the World Series.

Has it been officially announced that Chad will start the first game after the break? Anyway, that's the good thing about him not making the All-Star team, I guess.

1. newcastle
2. guiness
3. dr. pepper
4. vodka
5. rockstar (sugar free, preferred)

MC Safety's Deserted Island beverage list:

1. Absinthe (the real stuff)
2. Sizzurp (aka liquid codeine for those not keen on Southern Rap)
3. Sprite (for the Sizzurp)
4. Wild Turkey
5. Drano

Throw in some essential Cocteau Twins, and it really wouldn't be that bad.

392
2nd half rotation starts Kuroda, Bills, Lowe, Park, Stults.

This robs Chad of a chance to start back-to-back games. :)

I thought Kuroda was the first one out of the chute after the break?

Steiner said yesterday - Davis vs. Kuroda, Haren vs. Chad, and the battle of the sinkerballers Webb Vs. Lowe in that order.

Bills was in the lower 90s with his FBs, correct. I figured if someone was just watching on gameday and just saw upper 80s often they might have guessed his FB was slow. So just letting them know these were mostly cutters.

Dodgers have looked good vs the Cubs. I don't see a NL team that should be heavily favored against the Dodgers in the playoffs.

Furthermore, we're watching Loney, Kemp, and Ethier all improve from the beginning of the season to now. I imagine a similar jump could occur in the span of another 75 games. Kershaw would be in mid-season form as well.

Even LaRoche might be league-average if given 75 games to put under his belt (not that he will, but still.)

Well, that's not the way I'd do it, but OK.

399 You talkin about my list, or the rotation? : )

398
If the Dodgers played the Cardinals in the playoffs, it would be three and out.

For no real good reason except I just expect that. The Dodgers find creative ways to lose to the Cardinals.

However, the way the NL is shaking out, if the Dodgers made the playoffs, they would face the NL East champ. So pick your poison among the Phillies, Mets, and Marlins.

Ninth inning, Game 5 of the NLDS, Dodgers lead 5-4 in the ninth, two outs, one on, Broxton facing Tatis. And then ....

401 My recollection of the last Cardinal/Dodgers playoff series was that Odalis Perez lost it single-handedly. But maybe my memory is distorted.

We are expecting MRI results today, yes? The usual sources aren't reporting anything yet.

If it's bad, then hopefully we start the second half with Meloan in our bullpen. And, now I'm really dreaming here, DeWitt sent down and DeJesus called up. Nomar needs a caddy for a month or however long it takes Hu to see. Is it worth burning one of DeJesus's options to do that? Were we planning on recalling him later in the season anyway?

401 I like our chances if we score 5 runs in an elimination playoff game.

390 I didn't say he was only good because he plays at Coors but would you say he is as good as Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero or Gary Sheffield?

Maybe not but those players do not have such huge home/road splits, Manny who has played in one of the best ballparks for right-handed hitters, has just about the same splits home and road.

Now, Holliday has hit well (small samples 10-14 games) in Citizens, Miller and Turner field.

It cannot be argued that playing half of his games in Coors Fields has an impact to his numbers. If he leaves or his traded, how that what will affect his overall production is not known.

I think Kershaw needs to develop a 4th pitch (slider, preferably).

403
Regarding options, if DeJesus is called up and added to the 40-man, does he not use an option if he doesn't get sent back down the rest of the year? Does the option year start once he's on the 40-man, or will all of 2008 be taken into consideration?

390 If Piazza, Karros or Mondesi had played half their games in Coors (especially pre-humidor), the numbers they would have produced probably would be as great if not greater than Holliday, certainly Piazza and probably Mondesi.

401. That gives us anywhere from an 85% to 91% win expectancy depending on which base that runner is on. vr, Xei

406. And a 3rd pitch too. :)
vr, Xei

Any idea when we might hear something on the Saito MRI-no news yet anywhere that I can find.

407 Correct, if DeJesus stays in the big leagues, no option is used.

394 Robotripping and listening to the Cocteau Twins is blowing my mind right now.

410 His changeup is pretty good though. He just doesn't use it enough.

411. Since today is Bob's day off, I nominate him to sit in the waiting room to get the results to us right away.
vr, Xei

51s try to stem skid heading into All-Star break

>> • NOTE -- Dodgers infielder-outfielder Mark Sweeney went 0-for-3 Sunday and batted .250 (4-for-16) in his three-game rehab assignment for a strained right hamstring. Sweeney left the team after the sixth inning to catch a flight and is expected to join Los Angeles shortly after the All-Star Break. <<

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/25260554.html

415
I'm not HIPPA with that.

Rats, blew the joke.

I'm not HIPAA with that.

I think dzzrtRatt should throw caution to the wind and drink a pint of root beer today.

418. Bob, don't quit your day job. As wity as you are, you will never cut it as a comedian. :)
vr, Xei

356 If I were an Angels fan, I'd worry that he could hurt himself while celebrating a save.

416
When Sweeney comes back it might be as simple a roster move as Saito to the DL to create space for Sweeney.

If/when Kershaw comes up, it's probably one of Falkenborg or Troncoso that goes back to the farm.

416 And things were so nice with Sweeney gone....

421 Ala Gramaticca

422 Torre has been using 12 pitchers virtually the entire year. I don't really see him changing that.

306 Don't forget Carlos Santana, the RBI machine!

342

1. Water
2. Coffee/Espresso
3. Grapefruit juice
4. Sapporo
5. Veuve Clicquot, Green Tea, Leffe (tie)

Why's everybody taking water to the island?

I had to sit through a 90 minute lecture on HIPAA even though the closest contact I'd come to human patients is at the cellular level. Cellular!

There were some rumors floating around earlier in the season regarding Jason Bay.
An outfield of Bay in Left - Kemp in Center - Ethier in Right? That would work for me.
335 makes a great point, as does 348 .
The money for Jones and Pierre has been spent. Jones was hired to hit 20 - 30 Home Runs ...

Jones to the DL and if he doesn't respond then DFA.

Pierre's game is based on speed. Very little has been reported regarding his sprained knee. Bowa was in print somewhere this week saying that Furcal and Pierre can't be counted on coming back this season to help the Dodgers. Pierre without speed is ...

If Pierre's speed hasn't returned by the end of next ST then DFA.

Does it make sense to try and make something work when it never will just because someone has issued some bad contracts?

Jason Bay - Pat Burrell, Check out their 900+ OPS and what they've done in 2007 and 2006. Just need one of them to go with Kemp and Ethier.

jus say'in

1) Deschutes Mirror Pond
2) Deschutes Black Butte Porter
3) Pinot Grigio
4) Coffee...French Roast or darker
5) Green/White Tea

427 I don't think islands are equipped with distillers.

328. There are plenty of lagers that I like (including pilsners). Many German, Czech, and Russian, Lithuanian, and Polish beers, for example. Pilsener Urquell (in Plzen, so no preservatives) might be a perfect beer. There are a few American microbreweries that make good lagers (many more than make good ales). Victory Pils (from Philly) is excellent. Tabernash (in Longmont, CO makes great lagers. It's easy to get very good German beer in bottles (not as good as at the source, of course, but still very good).

I've had dozens of beers from just about every style there is that have been fantastic.

419 It's the type II diabetes. I have to draw the line somewhere, and so I'm drawing it at beverages.

It's very weird being at business events where everyone is drinking booze and you're not. I didn't realize how much people change after a couple of drinks. If you're not changing along with them, you start to feel very alienated, thinking to yourself things like: "Why is everyone being so loud?" "Geez, why are you being so emotional?" "I get it, you don't have to repeat yourself again." "You can't sing." "Man, are your issues obvious or what?"

Sweeney is still on our team? Is he going to the home run derby?

The way this Sweeney thing is dragging out is torture.

It's one thing to hang onto a player you've invested a lot of money in. That guy is going to get a roster spot. But Sweeney? Come on guys, you've got better options! You know you're going to dump him, get it over with.

Instant [and completely unfounded] rumor: Juan Pierre & $$$ to Mets for Luis Castillo.

Each player has 3+ years left on his contract; each player sucks in his own unique way. Pierre makes more money, so we'd have to make it match.

Castillo could become our back-up 2b this year and possible starter next year. Pierre would join Jose Reyes to form a "dynamic" top of the lineup.

(And Ethier would be free to ply his trade unfettered . . .)

Who needs a distiller, that's what Kidney's are for.

432
Ever visit the Jupiter in Berkeley? I thought that was pretty good IPA.

435 But he has great preparation and looks like a ballplayer.

413 ; )

#1 pick Tim Beckham is off to a horrible start in Rookie ball.

How high up on the potential free agents list is K-Rod?

Especially since he is probably going to ask for something around 14-15M per year for 4-5 years.

Looks like Baltimore has THE most dominating hitting prospect in the game: Matt Wieters. Right around 1.025 OPS at both Hi-A and AA.

442. Hopefully, not too high on our list. He's a luxury we can't really afford with all the bloated contracts, other needs and a competent closer in Broxton (if Saito is hurt badly). vr, Xei

Larry Bowa on the team (from the PE blog):

>>We definitely could use a bat, and that might be something that might be going on right now because we have some arms that I'm not saying we want to give away, but I know one guy is a free agent after this year, and I don't think the Dodgers want to see him walk, and that's Derek Lowe, and he's been pitching as good as anybody in our rotation, so I'm sure there's a lot of talk going on because there is a concern for our offense right now. It's non-existent to this point.<<

Coherency isn't his strong suit.

445. English is not his first language. Bowa speaks Yellish.
vr, Xei

445 Derek Lowe for Pat the Bat!!!

Just curious, anyone know what type of relationship Burrell and Bowa had in Philly?

389 we might go saturday to see Billingsley pitch.

Bowa kinda reminds me of the character from The Water Boy and Joe Dirt who speaks Cajun-English.

Joe Dirt: You like to see homeboys naked, that's cool man.
Cajun Guy: No home is where you make it.

I like how Bowa was not trying to name names, and by the end of the sentence he had already named names.

449 - Or like a character in "Idiocracy."

He's the Elia Kazan of baseball coaches.

Why is Bowa allowed to give interviews?

I mean really, if anyone is going to be speculating in the press, why is Bowa the one to do it?

453 Because Joe Torre's Id does what it's told, it puts the lotion on.

I wonder if Josh Rawitch has any opinion on this matter.

I was also wondering what Josh was thinking when Frank ran to LAT Windbag last week.

Anyone seen this from ROTOWORLD's Aaron Gleeman;

"* Matt Kemp has taken a lot of criticism from Dodgers fans and local media members this season, who seemingly blame him for the Dodgers' poor record despite the fact that he's pretty low on any list of the team's problems. Kemp went 3-for-4 with a double, two RBIs, two runs, and two steals Sunday, giving him a .284/.337/.444 line with nine homers, 51 RBIs, 47 runs, and 22 steals in 89 first-half games. While certainly not spectacularly, that's damn good from a 23-year-old.

Kemp is a career .300/.341/.473 hitter with 26 homers, 75 total extra-base hits, and 38 steals in 846 plate appearances, can capably play center field defensively, and doesn't turn 24 years old until September, yet much of the focus on his performance seems to revolve around mediocre plate discipline and a high strikeout rate. While valid concerns, those flaws haven't kept Kemp from being an outstanding player so far and may make him undervalued depending on the owner."
and...
* Chad Billingsley was 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA in late April, but 32 strikeouts in 20.2 innings had me suggesting him as an ideal buy-low candidate in this space. Sure enough, his ERA now matches his outstanding strikeout rate. After fanning a career-high 13 batters while holding the Marlins to one run in seven innings Sunday, Billingsley is 9-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 96-to-37 strikeout-to-walk in 95.2 innings spread over his last 15 starts. At just 23 years old he's closing in on ace status."
Nice to see some writers out there no a good thing when they see it...or two

454

Man, that guy is in a bad mood today

*know

wow that's bad

I think Bowa's comments are refreshing. No waffling like we get from Big Joe.

Bowa is basically saying, "Our hitting stinks. We have a good trade chip in Lowe, who will be a free agent. Let's trade him for a bat."

I'm not sure I can argue with that.

sporky was nice enough to spare you guys the worst part of the Bowa interview, but I'm not.

"We're definitely looking for a bat. We're looking for about three bats. We have some pitching to offer. I mean, we got this kid (Clayton) Kershaw..."

461 I don't think trading our #2 starter will make us a better team. Would trading Dan Haren improve Arizona?

433 Ah. I didn't understand at first why the root beer was in there with the alcoholic beverages. Your observations on being the outsider when everyone else is drinking are spot on.

Thank God Bowa's not our GM, makes Colletti seem like a genius by comparison. But he's a good third base coach, and that's all he is, and I don't think management staff or Torre look to him for personnel advice.

He's just speaking on his own, out of his...

We'll be right back after these messages.

462 - I personally took the whole quote to mean Kershaw could fill in for Lowe if he's traded. Not that we would offer Kershaw.

462 Did he seriously say that?

If he did, then hopefully he meant it in the context that if we trade somebody, then this kid Kershaw can step into the rotation and take the tradee's space.

463

All depends on what you could get for him, but you have a point, especially if Penny doesn't come back healthy. That leaves the staff in the hands of a lot of very young pitchers (except for Kuroda).

462

Is Bowa suggesting that we trade Kershaw or that we can afford to trade one of the other guys because we have Kershaw?

467 He did, yes. It's a little unclear whether he meant it as "let's trade Kershaw," or in the vein descibed in 466 .

447 Derek Lowe for Pat the Bat!!!

I hope not. While that would be a great trade for a team that made wise decisions, I don't like it for the Dodgers. We lose our number two starter and then Joe will give us an outfield of Pierre, Jones, and Burrell.

If Lowe is traded, we are probably looking at a three team trade.
vr, Xei

Full context is needed

http://www.beloblog.com/Pe_Blogs/prosports/mlb/dodgers/

Seriously folks, this is just my opinion, but we're better off spending the time obsessing over Saito's elbow results or what inning Martin will appear in the All Star game or who the Dodgers' best ever short stop was, over ramblings from Larry Bowa.

I think Bowa was speaking of Kershaw is someone who could step into the rotation if Lowe was traded.

I thought this quote was telling: "you'd much rather get a baseball player, a big league player back as opposed to getting draft picks, so I mean, I'm sure it's an option the Dodgers are looking into."

I'm sure this is more of a patience thing, in that Bowa wants immediate results rather than 4-5 years down the road, but unless a Bay-type bat where available I'd rather get the draft picks for Lowe. I hope the team with the 16th pick signs Lowe. :)

Martin and leadership.

If I needed one positive Dodger at-bat against the best pitcher in baseball in a critical situation: Martin is BY FAR my first pick and there is only one player I would even think of.

What does leadership, among the Dodger players,mean ?? --- by example only?

Does any Dodger player provide it? Or, in this situation, does it come from Torre.

A Martin fan

By this time next year, Billingsley should be headed to St. Louis to start for the NL.

I don't disagree with Bowa, just wondering why he is saying it publicly.

A little late to the game. It's been kind of a tough day here today. My favorite drinks (subject to constant change, also I may have all five tonight):

Casa Noble Anejo
Bakers Bourbon
Bohemia Beer
San Marcos Creek Zinfandel
Eberle Viognier

448 That's the game I'm not going to. I might have an extra pair of seats for Friday that I'd unload on the cheap.

478

Party at Marty's?

I'm not opposed to swapping Lowe for something that will genuinely help us this year, but I'd also be delighted to have Lowe the rest of the year and then get some draft picks. Either way works for me. As long as you don't do something silly like trade him for Jack Wilson or a closer.

I played out the rest of the schedules for each NL West team on my simulator (20 seasons simulated) at DodgerSims. Pretty much a dead heat between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. vr, Xei

480 It would be pretty somber. There's a bloodfest going on over here at the Times.

483
It's kind of like Lobsterfest at Red Lobster, only the food is good.

Our son got his 2 month shots today. He is not happy

482 Do they at least finish over .500? :)

Excellent news: CBS has decided to let go of Billy Packer. Bob should be thrilled.
http://tinyurl.com/5vjhjn

483 Good luck.

488 Thanks. I've seen some good friends get let go today.

Don't know if I will be able to check in on this thread later, but I wanted to briefly discuss park factors, Coors, and Holliday.

When looking at home/road splits, we are certainly not looking at "The truth as filtered through playing at one park" vs. "The truth," as the simple "Let's just look at road numbers" position suggests.

Especially for Colorado hitters, the home/road split will generally be huge, but all hitters have a home/road split. I wrote a Hardball Times article about the general home-field advantage back in 2005 which is worth checking out if you don't remember it. From 2002-2007, major league hitters were .271/.340/.433 at home and .262/.328/.417 on the road. Most people neglect this part; at the very least, if you're obstinately unwilling to use a player's numbers at home, compare their road numbers to the average hitter on the road, not the average hitter overall. As you can see, without making any other adjustments, we can say that Holliday's career .277/.341/.449 road line is above average and about average for his position. It should also be noted that his split was much more exaggerated earlier in his career: his road numbers in 2006-8, which are much more relevant to his 2009 and beyond performance, are .293/.363/.480. Those are very good road numbers on their own.

Beyond that, a Colorado player does not get any PA at Coors on the road and has more PA in SD, SF, and LA (offset some by AZ). So, if you insist on discarding home numbers in the analysis, you at least need to park adjust the road run environment.

Further, Colorado hitters have two distinct phenomena working against them on the road. One is a more general hangover factor; researchers such as MGL have demonstrated this, and I did some shadow studies on my own and came to similar conclusions. I haven't researched it in a few years, so I won't try to comment too much on its impact on Holliday's road numbers. There is an effect, it is real, and it hurts Colorado hitters; the extent of it is a matter for ongoing research.

Additionally, Colorado hitters have a quality of competition bias in their home/road stats. The quality of pitchers they face on the road is significantly higher than average and at home the reverse is true. I haven't studied it in a couple of years, so I'll hold off on quantifying it. But as a simple thought experiment, it should be clear given the dynamics of the run environment, the fatigue, the impact on breaking balls, etc. will mean that teams quickly have to resort to lesser options in Coors field; on the road, where Rockies hitters suffer from the hangover effect and play in the lowest road run environment, the selection of pitchers faced is quite different.

I will also note for Holliday specifically that he has only had the platoon advantage in 21% of his PA, which is fairly low. Part of that, I think, is just that Colorado has had a higher proportion of LHP than most or all other teams in recent years, but I'm not sure on that point. In any event, this is another reason to adjust his numbers upward slightly.

There are many approaches to calculating how well a Colorado hitter will do when on a different team, and looking at the player's road numbers alone, over any sample, is the worst one that any knowledgeable fan/analyst might consider.

487

146 waves hello.

Bummer :-( Marty... sympathies. Been through that with a dotcom that I really loved.

(I wish Plaschke was also let go.)

486. Without a change of current personnel, most likely they don't. But they are very close. vr, Xei

490. What is a "hangover" effect?
vr, Xei

There are many approaches to calculating how well a Colorado hitter will do when on a different team, and looking at the player's road numbers alone, over any sample, is the worst one that any knowledgeable fan/analyst might consider.

Again, and I am sure its not personal but I find the insertion of the word knowledgeable rather insulting.

432

Ok so you have no issues with the lager style, just don't care for Stella, and apparently consider freshness first and foremost, out of curiosity where are you purchasing those mirco brews (or do you tend to travel a bit)?.

I also find it surprising that with this talk of deserted island (preferably tropical) booze and no mention of Rum, I take my Appleton (blue label if some else is paying otherwise V/X is fine), a case of Affligem and beyond that would take some thought.

489

Marty, I had no idea. I am really sorry to heat that.

I've been meaning to start researching high-end rums.

490 Then let me simply ask this,

Matt Holliday is either going get traded or go on the free agent market in 2009. Certainly Scott Boras is going to try to negate his home/road splits, maybe even using some of the data in 490 .

But its certainly likely that while his road splits will go up due to all the factors that were raised in 490 . it must certainly also be likely that his home splits will drop down much more than his road splits will rise.

So what is the right value to place on a player like Holliday who is right now playing at his peak years and if he stays in Colorado, his first season with the new team will be when he turns 30.

494 Not to speak for Tom, but there's a significant hangover effect with Rockies hitters when they leave Coors. For a number of reasons, not all of which are known, they tend to perform far worse in road games than we might rationally expect. Once they move on to other teams, their road numbers tend to normalize and the hangover effect disappears.

There's speculation that it has something to do with the altitude and oxygen levels. I don't know about that, but it's a phenomenon that seems to cross over to other sports, too. If you look at college basketball, for example, you'll find that teams that play at high elevations, in general, tend to have extreme home-court advantages but play worse on the road than one might expect.

187, 486

That is awesome. I've been a little bitter over the last couple years, and that just locks in today as a good day.

Until we trade Andy LaRoche and Matt Kemp for Felipe Lopez.

If Furcal won't be back, what are the odds that instead of a shortstop we just trade for a better backup catcher?

My experience is limited but for a jumping off point you could do a lot worse than starting with the Appleton 18 year (the blue label tends to price me out) and Mountgay's 21 year.

New York Post: we're pursuing Raul Ibanez

http://tinyurl.com/6hb4a2

500 I can understand that in the NBA where the differences in scheduling home and road games are dramatic. Home teams never play back to back games and seldom play more than 3 games in a week if they are home. Road teams often are in the midst of at least one or two back to backs and will play 3-4 games on the road during a week.

494 Remember, the air acts on the seams of the ball. Less dense air in Denver means less pitch movement. Rockies hitters get used to that less movement on homestands. Then they go on the road and suddenly pitches now have more movement.

Great, we don't like the version of Delwyn Young we already have, so we need to go out and get another, less good, higher paid one.

The good thing is that rumors printed in the New York Post have significantly less credibility than the ones whispered in your ear by some nine-year-old girl when you were in elementary school.

507

Oh yes, that fateful recess when I thought Kelly Skinner liked me, only to find out it was made up to hurt me.

Impress a Lakers center by pronouncing his name with a Catalan accent:

http://forvo.com/search/gasol/ca/

504

I read the article, and besides it being the Post, the Dodgers were added in there as a throw-in. As in: Well the Mets are looking for Ibanez, but so are the Red Sox, Dodgers, etc...

Ibanez is just not that good. He was good two years ago, but that was a career year that wasn't matched before or since. I mean this guy is screaming "average player". Really, the odds of the Dodgers dealing for him are so low. Nobody is dumb enough to trade for a LF who's already 36 on this team. Ibanez has a mere 11 hrs so far, which is what we get from Ethier anyway. Hardly anything to worry about.

So, is no news on Saito at this point a bad sign?

500 - one of the arguments for training at high elevations (and this is why, as I've been told by Olympians that I know, that the Olympic training center has been in Colorado Springs) is that when coming down to sea level, one's lungs can absorb the thicker air better, thereby getting more oxygen into the blood stream. The information you provide seems to suggest that this may not, in fact, be helpful to an athlete.

I would suspect that the higher elevation is more of a home field/court advantage because so few athletes play at a higher elevation. I would also posit that, on a psychological level, athletes who believe in this heightened advantage would naturally (and subconsciously) perform at a lower level on the road. Conversing, athletes going into higher elevations may believe that they will play worse because of their inability to deal with thin air and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Another issue, I think, particularly when it comes to baseball, as we've seen with the Rockies is that guys adjust their games when they play at Coors. Pitchers tend to throw fewer breaking pitches because of the thin air, and rely more on changing speed. At lower elevations, I would guess that the Rockies see more breaking pitches and fewer straight pitches of varying speeds. I've also heard that hitters change their approach going in and out of Colorado, at least in the early years when you could hit a check swing homerun.

MRI details are up on Diamond's blog now.
vr, Xei

513. or lack of details. :)
vr, Xei

An hour ago, Tony Jackson blogged that he hadn't heard anything from Rawitch or Colletti about Saito.

Basically, the results won't be reviewed until tomorrow. vr, Xei

510 - I think Ibanez is better than an average player. He's been consistently good for a long time (eqa in the .280 range for the last 4 years). He can be a nice pickup for someone needing a good left-handed bat that can play a decent OF, and his contract is certainly manageable (only making $5.5M this year, FA next).

He'd be a good fit for either Arizona or the Mets, just not LA.

516

That seems doubtful.

Okay, I realize people will always overpay for things, but I am still amazed to see the iPhone going for over $900 on ebay. Can people really not wait a couple of weeks for a new shipment to come in?

Tony jackson now says they will have info tomorrow.

516
That sounds reasonable. I think we assume that doctors are all-knowing creatures who can look at all the parts of an MRI and come up with an instant diagnosis. If it were that easy, I'd hang up a shingle and call myself "Doc Timmermann."

Just when I thought Bowa was on to something. The first part of his bit on Diamond's blog is pretty disturbing.

According to Bowa, the injuries to Furcal and Pierre played a huge role in us being last in HR, 2b's, and walks.

520. Can we just call you Dr Hippa?
vr, Xei

521. Maybe he meant "inside the park" HRs?
vr, Xei

517
Ibañez defensively, from Bill James Online:

Plus/Minus
2006: +2 (15th among LF)
2007: -25 (30th)
2008: -12 (29th)

Arm
2006: 32.1% took extra base (3rd best)
2007: 43.1% (23rd)
2008: 35.8% (9th)

516 520

I think it is reasonable that they are waiting and working on what they will say to the public, but something tells me a doctor working for the Dodgers on a MRI for Saito would have info and consultation happening ASAP.

Dr. HIPAA, not HIPPA

At the DT picnic, I'm going to bring a sign and that tells people who want to talk to me that they have to stand a few feet away from me before they approach me.

Amazingly, I'm still single.

Bob,

You are the #1 person I am looking forward to meeting in person. I hope that doesn't put too much pressure on you

525. Yes, it seems a bit wierd. Maybe they are working on a second opinion or he took the MRI late in the day and the doctor was very busy. Guess, we'll just have to wait.

526. How about we set you up with a big bubble and you can take the other picnicers(sp?) on in games of trivial pursuit.
vr, Xei

527
That desire really needs to get applied to members of the opposite sex.

let me add the phrase "at the picnic"

better?

Alyssa Milano is throwing a party with Joba Chamberlain for MLB.com.

{527] I can vouch for Bob being a very cool guy to hang out with.
----------

I don't expect there will ever be a mini-series
I've enjoyed quite as much as `Band of Brothers', but `Generation Kill looked very promising last night. HBO just seems to have the knack for developing good stuff.

I hope someone takes lots of photos, uploads them and adds accurate captions for my sake. Thanks.

I think we should all wear corduroy and introduce ourselves as Andrew Shimmin. It will be very Spartacus-like.

534 - I'm Andrew Shimmin

So far Marty is the only one "lucky" enough to have met me. bh met a sandwich I bought for him, and I think he got the better of the deal.

531

MLB.COM has her doing all kinds of crazy stuff.

Meloan had a nice outing today, going 8 innings and giving up 3 ER, all of which came on 2 home runs. He also had 4K and 1BB.

538 7 innings

528
TV reference...!

reading Diamond Lungs blog it looks like Bowe wants to trade some of the kids for quick fixes... somebody has to tell Bowa we don't work that way around here!

thank god.

533
ToyCannon and scareduck took a bunch of cool photos last year. I'll bring my camera this time as well.

Was it my imagination or did HSC perform in the Home Run Derby in 2005?

543
He did...that was during the US v. World setup I believe. He did not fair well.

542
I like how I'm capped and scareduck isn't.

534 I'm Greg Brock.

543
It was more an Olympic style setup, with 8 players from 8 different countries:

Teixeira - US
Abreu - Venezuela
Choi - Korea
Pudge - Puerto Rico
El Caballo - Panama
Andruw - Netherlands
Bay - Canada
Papi - Dominican Republic

545
Isn't that his screen name? I stay true to selected monikers!

I'm particularly sorry I'm missing the picnic this year. I picture Bob set up with a Godfather-like reception line, lots of ring-kissing and the like.

And anyone who wonders aloud to him about Cody Ross will subsequently find a horse's head in his bed.

No, but seriously, I will miss it.

5 minutes in to the HR Derby all I can think about is when will ESPN give Chris Berman the Billy Packer treatment. (hopefully very soon)

It's going to be mortifying when I have to actually say the words, "Hi, I'm sporky."

Don't know if this was posted earlier but I think it's worth a 2nd look [ http://tinyurl.com/67wjjv ]

LOS ANGELES -- The latest news on Takashi Saito's elbow is that there is no late news.I

Saito underwent an MRI Monday as scheduled, but club officials said the results would not be evaluated until Tuesday by team surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who would issue a diagnosis and course of treatment.

The 38-year-old closer left Saturday night's game in the middle of an at-bat with acute stiffness in the area of the elbow ligament, and on Sunday said he still felt the discomfort.

Manager Joe Torre on Sunday said the club was prepared for the worst, meaning surgery that would sideline the right-hander for at least the rest of this season, if not longer. Jonathan Broxton has assumed closer duties, Chan Ho Park might be moved back to the bullpen and the promotion of 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw is under consideration.

How many wiffle ball players do we have attending the picnic?

I don't know if the DT picnic is ready for my Chad Billingsley cutter.

548
I'm tired of my moniker, ready for something new.

According to Dodgers.com the results won't even be evaluated until tomorrow:

Saito's elbow situation still uncertain

>> Closer may require season-ending surgery <<

## Saito underwent an MRI Monday as scheduled, but club officials said the results would not be evaluated until Tuesday by team surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who would issue a diagnosis and course of treatment. ##

http://tinyurl.com/67wjjv

551
sporky, did your co-worker have anything to say RE: Billingsley's performance yesterday?

542

Rob likes waving his around proudly Eric, watch out... my little Canon "power shot a550" has nothing on his.

552 Or what he said.

Someone should have the handle "Billingsley's Performance" to go in tandem with the "Kingman" one.

557
What he means is that you will have a severe case of lens envy after Rob takes his out of the case.

Reading today's comments has made me thirsty and fantasizing about a big bat:

Drinks
1. Don Julio Blanco
2. Sangrita
3. Bohemia beer
4. Grapefruit soda (to make Palomas)
5. A good malbec

Outfield
RF Either
CF Kemp
LF Bay

556 Ohh yes I'd like to know, too.

557
I'm going to secretly shoot video at the picnic. Beware if I ask for your autograph. It may actually be a consent form to appear in DT Gone Wild: Toasters Popping Out.

And by "someone," I mean Sporky's now-infamous co-worker.

Bob only grants requests on the day that a Dodger hits for the cycle.

549
I understand. You found paradise in Dodger Thoughts. You found like-minded friends, read some good articles, the "Thank you for nots" protected you and Jon deleted troublesome posts and you didn't need a friend like me. But, now you come to me and you say "Don Timmermann, give me useless information." But you don't ask with respect. You don't offer friendship. You don't even think to call me Godfather. Instead, you come into my park on the day my team is about to play the Brewers and you ask me to find out how many times the Dodgers have lost six-run leads since 1953 for no money.

474 I'd rather get the draft picks for Lowe. I hope the team with the 16th pick signs Lowe.

That concept was doused with some cold water in a recent interview I read with Mark Shapiro, GM of Cleveland. He said he traded Sabathia because his organization's research shows if you're not getting one of the first 7 players drafted, your chances of getting a major league player diminish exponentially. Not that you can't find a star after the seventh pick, but the odds rise against any particular player.

What Shapiro said seems to defy a lot of what is said around here. It would suggest trading Lowe for a player we know more about is a better outcome than just letting him walk.

It's another story if Ned thinks he's going to resign him. But Ned being Ned, he's probably applying magical thinking to that question, having no idea what Lowe's demands might be. He ought to try to figure that out now because the argument for trading Lowe becomes overwhelming if we think Penny and Kershaw will be able to rejoin the rotation this season.

By my calculations, the Dodgers have the 19th best record.

Or the 11th worst.

566 I ask you for justice. Be my friend, Bobfather.

556 et. al.

She's almost a believer! She's hung up on the W/L record, but she understands that it's not (entirely) his fault.

I have about 2 more starts to fully convert her, since I quit at the end of the month. I hope she doesn't regress after I leave.

565 Scene:

Picnic at Elysian Park, hot August, around noon.

Lots of blue hats, picnic food, mutterings of names like Bison, Minotaur and Fernando overheard in the crowd.

Unknown DTer: Who's that? (while gesturing to a man sitting on bench practicing some type of speech)

Eric Stephen: That's [BHsportsguy].

Unknown DTer: What's he doing?

Eric Stephen: He's practicing his speech for Bob Timmermann.

Cut to BHSportsguy.

BHSportsguy: "And I hope tonight the Dodger game will feature two Catchers' Interference calls. And they may be of masculine nature."

I'm so disappointed that I can't make the DT picnic this year. I only have about a two week window to visit my buddy in Chicago and unfortunately I couldn't use my free plane ticket during the weekend before the picnic.

Any thoughts of having an informal get-together at a game sometime this year?

566 Hah!

567 Interesting.

495 Hey, I'm sorry if you took it that way. I meant exactly the opposite though - I consider you (and aside from like 2-3 commenters) everybody at DT to be very knowledgeable. What I mean is that, among the approaches that a knowledgeable fan/analyst can/would reasonably consider, it's the least desirable in terms of efficacy. In terms of simplicity, it is easily the best, so I don't think it is wrong, it is just far from optimal. I understand and appreciate that most people don't have the type of insanity I have that requires further research and building the methodology etc. What I'm saying is not "You screwed the pooch, chowderhead!" but "Yeah, we are both part of the relatively small proportion of baseball fans who will try to filter out the effects of Coors, but here are the problems created by your quick and dirty method. Here are my notes on how to build a slow and scrubbed method; keep them in mind." Sorry if I have a tone of arrogance; baseball has always brought that out in me for whatever reason.

Lots of good points were made about the Why of the hangover effect, and the scope of my earlier research showed there is likely some validity to all of the points I've seen in this thread. (For Eric, I would define the hangover in this way: Rockies hitters (and pitchers) perform significantly worse in road plate appearances then we would expect them to based on our best estimates of their abilities and taking into account differences in context (HFA, quality of competition, temperature, etc.).) When I studied it, my interpretation of the hangover phenomenon was that hitters had a much more difficult time in terms of a) reading the strike zone and pitch selection and b) using an optimal approach (hitters trying to do the things that are successful only/principally at Coors). For pitchers, the analog of a) and b) more or less seemed to be the case as well.

It was my first substantial foray into pitch by pitch analysis and it was without type/location/velocity data, so I don't know if the findings are all that accurate. I don't know or remember where the good stuff from MGL was. I also had a friend share with me much of the research from a study he did for a team on it in 2002 or 2003 which was proprietary but made sense in light of what I was finding.

Now that pitch f/x is around, it will probably be easier (though still extremely difficult) to study the Coors hangover in the future. Then again, we have reasons to believe it has declined in significance with the humidor and some circumstantial evidence of better instructional approaches in Colorado's development system.

575 Cool, I probably was bothered since I took all of three minutes to put together my statistical analysis.

Who's the Dodger-prospect-equivalent of Nick Adenhart?

575 I wonder what the splits are for the Rockies on types of pitches at home and away?

567 - It would suggest trading Lowe for a player we know more about is a better outcome than just letting him walk.

This actually makes a lot of sense. The baseball draft is the ultimate crap shoot in sports. You are betting on a 17 or 18 year old kid to develop into a premiere athlete in a period of 4-5 years. You really don't have reliable stats to base your determination on because of the inequity of skill and talent through out high schools around the country. Ultimately, you are betting that at least one of the players you take (if not more) will develop into one of the best 750 baseball players in the country.

At least with minor leaguers you have some idea of what they can do at a level that is closer if not directly comparable to the majors.

I think this explains much of the reasoning behind those who favor taking a vet over a kid. I also think that strict adherence to either preference will spell doom for a team. Or get Steve Phillips on Baseball Tonight.

571
Unknown DTer: Bloggers only like stats; they don't like baseball.

Eric Stephen: Who's being naive now, kay(deecee)?

From Tony Jackson:

>> Ned just told me Dr. ElAttrache wasn't in Los Angeles today, and that's why he couldn't examine the MRI results until tomorrow. <<

http://tinyurl.com/5qxsj4

580

Unknown DTer: no really, just stats.

KG16: you look familiar. don't I know you?

Unknown DTer: me? nope.

KG16: I know where I've seen you before, your Bill Plaschke

Greg Brock: Get a rope.

579 This is where the protected draft picks also come into play.

Let's say that for some reason, the Washington Nationals decide to sign Sabathia, their pick is protected, so that club loses it 2nd round pick and you get a supplemental round pick.

If the Yankees sign him and they finish above 15th in the year end cumulative standings, you get their first round pick and a supplementatl but you won't know what you have until 2010-2011 probably.

With LaPorta, if his bonus was all front loaded, you just have whatever incentives he might have (he probably has none).

567 , 579 While I think it's largely true that the first few picks are much more valuable than the rest, and that the draft in general is a crapshoot anyway, not all draft picks are created equal. A #17 overall pick in the hands of the Dodgers is very different from the same pick in the hands of the Astros. I've long advocated that the Dodgers maximize their number of high draft picks, because Logan White won't be around forever and we should take as much advantage of his skills as we can while he's still with us.

Of course, this assumes that there is some truth to the notion that White is superior to other scouting directors. (Which, I guess, may not be true, and besides, he technically isn't the scouting director anymore anyway.)

567, 579 -- Studies like that on the value of draft picks suffer a major flaw: they don't distinguish between the results of teams like the Indians that draft poorly, especially in the first round, and, say, teams with Logan White making their picks.

Cleveland was absolutely right to trade Sabathia, because I doubt anybody they would draft with extra picks would be as good as LaPorta. But I'll bet White could get a better talent with extra draft picks than we could get by trading Lowe now, unless we traded him for a prospect or two, and the whole point of Bowa's little speech was to get a major leaguer for Lowe.

583 - I'll be honest, I don't know enough to comment on the draft, don't know the rules, don't understand the strategy, don't have the time or desire to learn either.

I do understand the desire to build a winner now and the reliance on veterans to do so. I also understand the desire to build a long term winner from within. But I think the true path to success is what the Yankees did in the mid to late 90s: build from within, supplement with trades and free agents where you bets in the draft didn't pay off.

Also keep in mind that the Dodgers will likely now not get any draft compensation for losing Furcal next year unless he makes a miraculous recovery this season and comes back and so on. So without (presumably) offering him arbitration and then getting a draft pick as comp, it might be nice to at least get one for losing Lowe. Honestly, if the Dodgers are in playoff contention this year, given how solid Lowe has been and how good he historically is in pennant drives, unless they're getting a top flight player in exchange for him I don't see the point... but that's just me.

587 - I honestly doubt the Dodgers make a move before the trade deadline. If they were going to make a move, they would have by now.

so I guess TC will be happy Ben Sheets is the NL starter for the all-star game... He's pretty good, I like watching his 12 to 6 hammer.

Is there even a slight chance that the Dodgers will get compensatory picks for Nomar? (Or Proctor - I don't even know when he becomes a FA.)

Anyway, the Furcal situation makes me hope that the Dodgers re-sign him to an Andruw contract, or at least offer him arbitration and hope he takes it. When you lose a player of that caliber, it's painful to not get any draft picks in return. If we keep him for another year or two and then he leaves, he'll likely have regained his Type A status.

There are more players at the All-Star Game this year who were cast away by the Dodgers for nothing (2) then there are actual Dodgers (1).

590
Proctor is eligible for FA after 2009. However, he is eligible for release waivers immediately. :)

590

if I were the GM i'd give Furcal a 2 year deal, why not, I mean the guy was playing great EVEN WITH the back problems, to be honest I don't even think it's a high risk type deal.

plus the guy likes playing here & Hu's vision is still in doubt.

585 Logan White does have a good record but his picks in the last two supplemental rounds (Mattingly and Adkins) are certainly no sure things. Only Broxton has made the team as a 2nd Round pick, no 3rd round pick has advanced and stuck with the team.

There is certainly a better chance that White and his team would do better but White's most acclaimed pick is his highest (Kershaw) as the seventh pick overall.

568 Adding up ranks of best and worst for a team should always add up to 31 (unless there are ties)

591
Plus they didn't sign 1997 2nd round pick and current AS Chase Utley, but that might be stretching it a bit.

I didn't know how I would react this year.
But its four days with no interest, and I can't seem to help it.

594 By acclaimed, I mean one that has been universally seen as one of the best players in that draft, certainly Russell Martin is a great story from where he was drafted and Billingsley was also among the best pitchers in his class and was recognized as such right away.

595 In fact, I get 18th best and 13th worst. I put them ahead of Baltimore since they have a better W%.

433 . I've known a few really fun drunks. On the occasions when I had to be around them when they were drinking and I wasn't (rare, I'll admit), none of them were any fun at all.

Whassamatta, no Home Run Derby Thoughts here?

Morneau almost hit one out of Yankee Stadium. Berkman hit some mammoth upper deckers.

I should get my godfather to come to the DT picnic and creep out Bob.

Josh Hamilton is a god.

603 - 502 feet, in centerfield!

I despise Home Run Derby. I avoid it like the plague. I'd rather watch the NHL All-Star Game. I'd rather watch one of those giant tumor removal operations on The Learning Channel. I'd rather watch the Gene Simmons reality show.

How's that for a Home Run Derby Thought?

My baked ziti is almost ready and nobody is home. Anyone in the area, feel free to drop by.

So where do we go if we want to talk about some dingers?

This is one of the best HR derby performances ever. Hamilton is incredible.

Josh Hamilton is making a mockery of this derby.

He's on my Christmas list.

I just can't believe anybody can ever hit a baseball farther than Josh Hamilton can.

The cops were all over those guys on the black in CF!

He really is Roy Hobbs.

I'm going to go smoke crack so I can hit HR like Hamilton.

Oh wait, stopping drugs helped him? Never mind.

Not even Big Papi can stop him!

only question now is when will he hit one out of Yankee Stadium.

He's not even breathing hard.

The 71-year old dude is the greatest BP pitcher ever.

The only question was...whether he could make it around the bases unassisted!

You gotta admit, this is pretty incredible for a Home Run Derby.

LOL Counsil needs water!

A 13 year old kid is (somewhere) inspired to pick up a bat & glove right now.

that's what I love about this. That's how I felt when I wathced E. Davis bat.

617 - He really is...he's putting pitch after pitch right there on a tee, and Hamilton is destroying each one.

617

for his age he's got a gun man...

man, HE IS ON A ZONE!!

WOWZERS!

Hide your women and children. Hamilton is a beast.

Oh come on.

This is beyond legendary.

You give up that many runs, a pitcher has to come inside...it's his plate, man.

I really wish I had known Daniel was making baked ziti before I went out to get something to eat.

I made it once for some friends when I invited them over to see "The Sopranos."

I know Abreu has hit 24 in a round before, but I would be OK if they ended this competition early, a la Wilt's 100-pt game.

Josh Hamilton has great stamina (wow) he sounds like what ever when they interviewed him.

In case I forgot why I put up with Chris Berman and watch HR derby every year, Josh Hamilton just reminded me.

I wish Josh Hamilton was on my team.

Any chance one of you DT'ers will put on a similar show at Elysian Park for us?

the ultra-slomo camera makes it look even cooler, he's got a pretty swing, Josh Hamilton dose...

What does that Cubs' fan in the State Farm have to insure? He rode his bike to get there to catch the HR ball, didn't he?

Watching that just makes you think about what could have been. Had he had those 5 extra years or so, he could have been the best player of all time. I really dont think that is a stretch. Even still, he could turn his career into a Hall of Fame career. For him to be doing this without playing above A ball for 4 years or whatever it was might be the most amazing thing in baseball history. Just stuff legends are made out of.

633
I'll be playing the part of Clay Counsil.

633
Brock can drink 28 beers for us.

I Put one off the tree across from my house during tennis ball home run derby once.

It's kind of the same thing as what Hamilton just did. Pretty equal, I'd say.

I went to Cincinnati several times last year early enough for batting practice. I'm not going to say Josh was this incredible every game, but he was incredible. Between him and Dunn, fans got a lot of balls out there in the Moon Deck.

638 That would be a Boggsian feat.

In my younger days, perhaps.

628 I actually have an extra one that I'm going to put into the freezer. So you could have had your own dish.

636
Had he had those 5 extra years or so, he could have been the best player of all time.

I really dont think that is a stretch

I want to quote Harvey Keitel from Pulp Fiction here.

636 I was thinking about that too. I was also thinking about how the Dodgers could have gotten him this off-season.

Incredible.

Hamilton is great, but Texas traded a pitcher for a hitter because why?

643 I know the line of which you speak.

Tee hee.

It's too bad he's on Texas. That team never does anything right. Over the years the ratio of good Texas players/least to show for it must be among the highest in baseball.

And Dallas isn't exactly a small market area. Their diamond rings have diamond rings down there.

640

I don't wanna by a party pooper but I kind of really don't like Adam Dunn. I remember a while back watching the minor league HR derby or the actually all-star game (can't remember) but Dunn hit a monster shot & the camera was on him & he really looked like he wasn't into it (I though he was just playing it cool) but reading some recent stuff about him, now I know why....

Reggie looks pretty thin. I bet if he stuck his backside out now in between 1st & 2nd base he wouldn't have enough girth for the ball to hit him.

Bluebleeder is the J.P. Ricciardi of Dodger Thoughts.

648 I don't particularly like him either. I wish we could both dislike him together in LF for the Dodgers though.

I'm usually lukewarm on Rick Reilly, but he's been pretty good tonight. He's had some humorous lines, and pretty good anecdotes.

652 It's all relative. If you put James Loney in a track meet with Bob Hamelin and Sal Fasano you would think he was fast.

My dad called to squee about Hamilton.

"WHY HAVEN'T I HEARD ABOUT HIM!?"

A couple of other consideration about compensatory draft picks: Were the Dodgers to get two extra draft picks, seemingly it would increase their leverage with the other picks they have. The more picks you have, the more chances you can take. The other thing is that the extra picks come in handy if Ned decides to sign a Type A free agent, forfeiting a pick.

that was awesome, what a great story.

Josh Hamilton is amazing, not just his story but his talent. That is most of the secret of his success in tonight's HR Derby, that, and having a 96 year old man tossing to him. Poor guy.

You do wonder what the Rangers would be like if they had any kind of pitching at all.

Ladies and gentlemen...The magic stylings of Fred Kaps.

I wonder how the Rays feel about this. Hamilton should be doing all this stuff for them, after all.

If he were, they wouldn't have to worry about the Red Sox too much.

If they were going to make a move, they would have by now.

but!

The infamous Betemit for Proctor trade commenced right at the deadline, July 31, 2007.

Nervous time?

However, in part because Hamilton never succeeded in Tampa Bay, the Rays always were bad and always got high draft picks.

All the Rays really need is Cody Ross.

Byran Morris had a good 3rd start in July, 5 innings, 4 hits, 1 walk and 8 strikeouts.

Overall in July, 16.1 IP, 7 hits, 2 ER, 7 BB and 21 K.

661 Rule 3 violator! {Screech!}

659
It's essentially a Hamilton for David Price trade (not really, but sort of).

660 If that is the level of moves conducted by the Dodgers at the trade deadline, two things will happen, one, there will be a collective sigh at DT and two, I will say for the first time in DT written history that Ned will not be the Dodgers GM on Election Day 2008.

Whoa, watch your lips there, camera crew.

Somebody almost got killed.

663
I thought it was more of a Rule 6 or a Rule 8.

639
More personal tennis ball HR derby moments: I once tried to emulate Pete Gray and hit a ball from my cousin's driveway into the backyard of the house of the neighbor across the street, all while one arm was tucked inside my shirt.

Combining today's two themes, Dodger draft picks and home run hitting, this video might be interesting to some:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBiOpDn7W5U

632 I came here to say that.

669
Against Lance Berkman's alma mater, in Berkman's house! Take that, Big Puma!

Anybody who hasn't read it already needs to check out the Hamilton SI article:

http://tinyurl.com/3jpsuf

kind of lengthy but well worth it!

668 Backhand or forehand? I always thought Pete Gray would have swung backhand, but he swung forehand.

673
Mine was backhanded. I have dishonored Pete Gray.

I feel bad for the call your shot guy, although he did get to hang with all-stars and legends on the field at Yankee Stadium, so it's not all bad.

Come on, dude. Lose one out of the yard.

You can do it.

According to Pitchfork, Bob Dylan will be making his video game debut in Rock Band 2. Dylan Dodger fans will soon be able to fake play "Tangled Up In Blue". Some pretty cool other stuff as well.

http://tinyurl.com/6kf49s

674 His smile scared me.

I think the EA Sports commercial for its college football game should have shown a virtual Ben Olson looking panicky in the pocket and then getting sacked and fumbled.

That will be the image I have from the Ben Olson Era.

678 There are always the images of "the law firm" trying to throw a pass against that tough Notre Dame defense.

676
Thanks for that. There are some great songs on that list. I'm all over "Tangled Up in Blue".

Plus there are 3 songs parodied by Weird Al:

"Lump"
"Give It Away"
"Eye of the Tiger"

Counsil tried a little slide piece there.

678
That was a pretty cool commercial though.

Not to make to much of a joke of this but images of Jimmy Stewart saying "Tom, your money not's here, it is Frank's house."

And hopefully, these branches have more than $2 in cash at the end of today.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-indymac15-2008jul15,0,431088.story

Great touch with the Rocky music.

"Getting stronger..."

The IndyMac Bank's real problem was when a guy took some money to the bank to deposit it, he accidentally left it in Dick Cheney's lap.

683 No way a song that creates images of Philadelphia plays well in "Yankee Stadium."

"These little town blues, are melting away"
"I'm gonna make a brand new start of it, in ole New York."
"If I can make it there, I'll make it anywhere."
"It's up to you New York, New York!"

With the win, Morneau wins puppies and a microwave, to do with what he sees fit.

Awwww way to screw up everything again Morneau!

Josh Hamilton: + 28
Rick Reilly: - (infinity symbol)

687
I kind of liked Reilly (for once) tonight! "This is 8 white guys. It's like a Kiwanis Club meeting."

685 They play that song (Rocky) many nights in Yankee Stadium as some crazy fan in the right center field bleachers drenches himself with water and runs up and down the aisles pumping his arms. The crowd loves it.

684 I think Lionel Barrymore could accurately portray Cheney today.

Of course, Barrymore's been dead for 53 years.

685 BTW, I wrote those lyrics from memory.

579 .
567 - It would suggest trading Lowe for a player we know more about is a better outcome than just letting him walk.

This actually makes a lot of sense. The baseball draft is the ultimate crap shoot in sports. You are betting on a 17 or 18 year old kid to develop into a premiere athlete in a period of 4-5 years. You really don't have reliable stats to base your determination on because of the inequity of skill and talent through out high schools around the country. Ultimately, you are betting that at least one of the players you take (if not more) will develop into one of the best 750 baseball players in the country.

Besides which, the anxiety that watching these rookie/sophomore players develop is causing among the Dodger fanbase, man, I don't know if it's worth it. Please, no prospects for Lowe. Just give me a good player with a nice flat statistical curve over the past 3 seasons or so, like that Bay feller from Steeltown. Only make him a shortstop. Someone like that 3rd base guy we picked up free-agent from Boston a couple of years ago, that is, BEFORE his knees fell off. Someone younger, I guess, but not too young, like 26-29.

That's all I want for Lowe (in a trade).

If ya can't trust the GM to make the trade that's best for the team this year AND beyond, ya oughta just fire him right now.

A dead man walkin' GM can do alot of damage.

692 "Besides which, the anxiety that watching these rookie/sophomore players develop is causing among the Dodger fanbase, man, I don't know if it's worth it. Please, no prospects for Lowe."

Well, that's a new one. "Prospects cause too much heartache so we should probably try not to develop any more prospects" sounds like the best philosophy I've ever heard if your goal is to build a dysfunctional and losing baseball team.

I flip-flop a lot. In my thinking, that is. About the Dodgers.

There's a NPUT, by the way, in case you missed it. (I did.)

694 From what I gathered he wants us to trade for Hanley Ramirez without naming names. Sort of the anti-Bowa.

That's the only SS I can think of with Jason Bay's power and Bill Mueller's gritty clutchness. He can even run bases like Juan Pierre.

(cue drumroll)

(sorry, Jay Z and Juan Pierre)