Is their a correlation between Jon's posting rate/Dodgers winning percentage?

The Best of Dodger Thoughts Today.

Foreword by Bob Timmermann.

1 I think it's more like bobbing and weaving to keep the DeWitt vs. LaRoche futility to a minimum. ;)

I love how some guys think that their blogs make a difference in how the team does (I am talking about some guy on DodgerTalk not Mr. Weisman).

So, the last two Sundays, I have been unable to see the game but I did keep up over my phone.

I can actually say that I was very happy to see "Run(s) scored." on my phone during the 9th inning.

4
Maybe cool nicknames inspire the players to be better.

4
See Rule 9.

7 This guy apparently wrote up on how Matt Kemp had a bad at-bat last night in the 9th and that someone needed to get it across to him that he needs to do better.

He figured that happened sometime between last night and today.

Nine posts?

Nine posts!

Listening to Dodgertalk while putting in a new carseat. I can live with differing opinions, but do people just have to make stuff up?

If I just say that all criticism of Matt Kemp is racist, will it make people stop criticizing him? Even if it's not true?

I've always wanted to do that. Being a WASP, I've never had the chance to lob that bomb.

10 Its the freedom of being anonymous. Kind of like commenting on a blog.

Except here, people will call me out if I invent something.

11
All bombs should be lobbed by Bob. Or at least, the law ones.

Man!!!

What a great comeback! What a huge win!

but...

Now I'm worried about LaRoche. By now I think it's obvious we should go with Andy instead of the Solution. DeWitt was "the Solution", but he it was the "solution to how to replace LaRoche while he's out."

LaRoche is back. There's zero reason to opt with DeWitt anymore instead of as a pinch hitter or maybe a guy to plug in against lefties. I just hope Torre and the rest see the light and switch the two. I love DeWitt as much as anyone here, but now I think we gots to switch the two roles of our 3B.

By the way may I proclaim: THE RED SOX ARE ABOUT TO BE SWEPT!! I LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!

It may make me a wimp, but when I desert and don't watch games that look lost, we seem to win half of them. I would say this is a miraculous percentage.
Also this month I had a marvelous oppurtunity. A Marketing firm called on me to take a survey ( I think it was for DTV or the local cable co.) they guestioned me deeply about 4 or 5 national channels. They actually asked me about ESPN. Do you know what ESPN stands for? I said "yes Eastern Sport Network". And I continued by saying I wanted a national sports channel because I was interested in West Coast Baseball. I don't think they liked this, but when they gave me choices of five channel packages I avoided ESPN. Oh well. Still no Dodgers on ESPN, anyway.

Just got home from the game. What a fantastic afternoon.

Hey, hey, Bob! A 2-1-3 dropped third strike put out in the Angels/Red Sox game!

Troncoso pitched 2 innings and had 5 K's without surrendering a hit or a walk. Was it as impressive as it sounds?

18 - Yes, it was very impressive and a part of the game that hopefully won't be overlooked.

18,19 yes it should not be overlooked.

If anyone gives a damn about the Honda 200 I am very scared.

Did anyone else read Marc Normandin's comments on the Dodgers' defense at BP? He says that Loney has been the 4th worst first baseman (not sure if that is supposed to be in the NL or all of the majors), that DeWitt has been "average," and in the infield "only Kent has made a positive contribution with the leather." Someday, with hard work, maybe Loney can be the defensive whiz at his position that Kent apparently is at his position. Time to just bury these idiotic defensive "metrics" for good.

Well, it'll be interesting to see what Torre does when Pierre comes back in two weeks. Does he have the guts to bench Andruw Jones? Or will he platoon Kemp and Ethier and play Andruw every day in center?

I think if Andruw doesn't start hitting in the next two weeks, Torre will bench him.

22
I don't think Torre will go directly from starting Jones everyday to benching him. There'll at least be a transition period where Jones plays 40-50% of the games.

21 Just because they're not there yet doesn't mean they'll never get there...

There are no good defensive metrics. UZR, Rate, Rate2 are all garbage. Dewan's stuff is whatever.

The eyes tell the tale on defense.

21
Thanks for that post. Loney's size alone at first has been a great asset.

16
The game and its outcome was great; what was the mood at the stadium?

25 That's the kind of thing they used to say about evaluating players offensively.

21 Did he really say that! That is the most absurd stuff I have heard this year, and while our guys may not be the best by these metrics, I think eye balls are important and this guy's may be very flawed. Also I trust you Canuck, so I have to believe. Maybe BP is so inflamed about the D's exec's incompetance that it is bleeding into their senses.

27 So which defensive metric is good?

25 That's not too far away then from having a good feeling about a player.

28 Actually, the metrics they were talking about say that Arizona's infield is worst than the Dodgers.

27 That's the kind of thing they used to say about evaluating players offensively.

In the meantime, the current Defense metrics are still garbage.

25
Greg Brock would just retire the AL Gold Glove award for shortstops and call it the Derek Jeter Award.

That's not too far away then from having a good feeling about a player.

That's false and you know it! Foul!

32 Your japes continue to cut like a knife.

What have I done to offend thee so?

Question: How do we know that the current defensive metrics are garbage? Is there some standard against which we can measure them? If so, why don't we just use that standard instead? If not, then how can we really judge them one way or another?

I can understand that we might have qualms about the very concept of a measure, but it seems to me that we can't really know whether it actually measures defense well or not.

I dont get the negativity re: Ozuna. He is a utility guy who can play just about every position and looks like he can actually hit a little. If Beraza hit .285 this year we would probably be 2-3 games up on AZ. If his defense is ok and he hits .285 with no power and few walks it's still a nice pick up I think. He doesn't look like he has declined really. This is an improvement. Yea, that bar is pretty low.

It's one thing to say that the current ones aren't great or any good and it's perfectly fair to dismiss them. But the attitude seems to be that they'll never get there and defensive analysis should be left to scouts and scouts alone. And that sounds like Joe Morgan's thinking.

Research isn't always perfect, but it does sometimes figure things out better. Any attempt to improve knowledge of a player's defensive abilities is alright by me.

Time to just bury these idiotic defensive "metrics" for good.

I think its time to bury defense for good.

Just get high OPS players in the lineup.
Stack the pitching staff with high k rate/low bb guys/low hr allowed pitchers.

Forget about defense.
At least, dont attempt to quantify something that isnt guantifiable, and thus make recommendations on faulty info.

And that sounds like Joe Morgan's thinking.

Calling somebody Joe Morgan is a bit much. It's the baseball equivalent of the word that Scott Long railed against a few months ago.

It's also unfair to dismiss said metrics because they don't agree with observation. Not everything is as it appears.

And these metrics don't say what a player's abilities are. They're supposed to say how a player performs, and how a player performs on defense depends on the balls hit at him, which is subject to chance.

21st- Not sure about Loney's defense, but his offense at 1st is amongst the worst in the league when you factor in DPs.

12 That's why you put the words "according to Ken Rosenthal" in front of made up material. ;)

41 And the worst part is that there's a free agent slugging first baseman on the horizon.

And we're not going to even try to sign him.

That must really bother some people.

Some random people.

I can't understand this. I've been following ESPN and ESN trying to see when they pick up the D's game. Not yet, and I thought maybe they were going to wait until news time on the west coast. But they have been crowing about Lincecum losing for a couple of hours now, and showing some really stupid cat fight on a race (?) track.
No D's-snakes yet.--good night.

I dont get the negativity re: Ozuna. He is a utility guy who can play just about every position and looks like he can actually hit a little.

But he can't hit. He's the prototypical Ned player: all value comes from (empty) batting average.

If you can limit the amount of balls put into play (through having high K rate pitchers), or limit the amount of batters faced (through getting low bb rate pitchers), you can really limit the amount of luck/defense dependence in preventing runs.

I think the newer offensive stats are fine, but the defense stuff just is way way out there.

The new defensive metrics have resulted in guys like Julio Lugo getting way more than they are worth.

Thats not to say Loney isnt a poor 1st basemen--maybe he is? But who cares? His job is to bash.

There's nothing sillier than concluding that a particular defensive metric (or all defensive metrics) are garbage because there is one specific evaluation you don't happen to agree with.

Jose Lopez has a higher batting average than Chase Utley. Therefore batting average is a garbage stat.

Justin Duchscherer has a lower ERA than Johan Santana. Therefore, ERA is a garbage stat.

Aubrey Huff has a better OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. Therefore OPS is a garbage stat.

Come on, you guys are better than that. You should know better.

46 But you're not going to be able to stuff your team with nothing but high K/low BB pitchers.

A team ought to look for any kind of competitive advantage it can get.

So, again, which defensive metric should be the bedrock?

UZR? Rate2? +/-?

48 "A team ought to look for any kind of competitive advantage it can get..." that's not, you know, unethical.

49 I think Win Shares generally does a good job, with the possible exception of catchers and first basemen.

24 -- How can defensive metrics ever "get there?" Is something going to happen that is going to make it something other than subjective opinion whether a particular ball in play should or should not have been turned into an out by a particular fielder?

51 But Win Shares merely incorporate defense, instead of judging it independently of offense.

I want a good way to judge defense. If my Joe Morgan-sized brain can handle such complexity.

52 The fact that something may contain subjective elements doesn't mean it doesn't contain objective ones too. Through the noise you can still see information.

OPS, just as much as fielding percentage, contains the official scorer's subjective opinion on whether something is a hit or an error. That doesn't render it valueless as a metric.

39 Sorry. I'm not a fan of what I perceive as closed-mindedness... or giving up on things quickly.

52 - Even if that were the case, why is that subjective opinion worth less than the subjective opinion of using "the eye"?

I mean, you're free to ignore any stats, offensive or defensive, to your own advantage or peril. But I find every reason to believe that, with every play being monitored by evolving technology, reliable defensive stats can be developed. Saying that the stats are too subjective to be use in place of one's own subjectivity strikes me funny.

36 45 Ozuna 2008:

vs Lefties (23 AB): .391/.417/.522/.939
vs Righties (41 AB): .220/.256/.220/.476

Home (31 AB): .387/.406/.452/.858
Away (33 AB): .182/.229/.212/.441

April (20 AB): .200/.200/.200/.400
May (24 AB): .292/.320/.333/.653
June (17 AB): .353/.421/.412/.833
July (3 AB): .333/.333/.667/1.000

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4334

55 I gave up on Studio 60 quickly. Did that make me wrong?

No. No, it did not make me wrong.
;-)

58
You just weren't urbane enough to fully appreciate the width and depth of Aaron Sorkin's awesomeness.

59 That show sent the psilocybian movement back a decade.

By the way, how many are watching Generation Kill? I never heard DT commenter reaction to the first episode.

I was so proud of Matt Kemp today -- that was one of the biggest ABs in his career IMO and he performed beautifully.

Andre Ethier is without a doubt one of this team's best players and needs to be billed as such.

And what about Nomar? I'm not about to forget about Furcal but he has had some nice pop in his bat since returning from the DL. Lifesaver.

59

Ugh, don't remind me.

That said, "Charlie Wilson's War" is a great movie and a notable exception.

61 I'm not going to watch it.

Why are people arguing? Didn't the Dodgers just take two out of three in Arizona? Group hug, people, group hug!

Go look at some Lolcatz pictures if that will help.

In even better news, a friend of mine has two tickets to the Nats@Giants game on Tuesday and invited me to come. I am touched but wonder what I have done to him?

Would it be rude to bring along a book?

58 The pilot episode was awesome. After that it became less and less tolerable until the episode where one of the actors' parents scolded him for not being in Iraq like his brother, at which point I abandoned ship.

61

I'm watching it. Only one episode so far. Interesting...don't love it yet.

47 -- Eric, I reached my conclusions about the flaws inherent in defensive metrics (and not because of one or even just a few cases of absurd conclusions based on defensive metrics) long before today, but reading what I did in Normandin's piece just before I commented here did make me angry. Pardon me for sharing with the group. But I will note that there is, in logic, such a thing as disproving something by reductio ad absurdum, and Normandin's comments about Loney and Kent's defense certainly is a case of somebody BELIEVING the very absurd thing that destroys the credibility of a given intellectual construct (in this case, whatever system of defensive metrics Normandin relies on).

61 I watched the first episode a few nights ago, forgot to comment on it. I thought it was extremely well done and will watch the 2nd, but also thought it a bit needlessly complicated (I guess, just like war!) Still, I even felt a few comparisons to Band of Brothers in that there are so many characters who I often got confused and yet found compelling anyway, and in that show the characters became more distinctive with each passing episode. At any rate, it seemed a little scattered to start but still very compelling, to me.

65

At least they're arguing about defensive metrics.

Man that was a big, BIG win today. I hope we don't blow it against the Rockies. The Rox just won 10 of their last 15.

Am I the only person who has only seen one episode so far? Am I unstuck in time?

Canuck, OT, but have you seen Guy Maddin's "My Winnipeg" yet? Great stuff.

I find the race to define the Iraq War annoying.

Sometimes, 20 years and a lot of perspective goes a long way.

70

umm... Make that 9 of their last 15

and unfortunately, I don't have HBO

71 - No, I'm in the same time zone as you, apparently. Are people watching advanced screeners or seeing them on demand first?

Tonight, however I'm going to plow through more episodes of "Spaced" which I have to review next week and which I can't get enough of anyway.

At least Tony Jackson admits he's hasty in his latest blog entry. (And didn't have the opportunity to post that version.) He drives me nuts sometimes, because he makes these rash assumptions - as in how he's declared the Dodgers essentially dead several times.

A huge cockroach just flew across the room and landed on the wall. I won't miss that if/when I leave The South.

72 -- Haven't seen that yet. Have you seen the same director's The Saddest Music In The World, which features Isabella Rossellini sporting an artificial leg full of beer?

61
I watched about 15 minutes of the first episode. But as a 20-year Army vet, I can lose interest in this type of military production quickly. I see many character exaggerations. Perhaps it's just "TV war fatigue" for me.

Just watched the first episode of Generation Kill tonight. Like it, don't love it (yet), willing to hang in there for the 2nd episode.

I'm bummed that I missed today's game. Sounds like it was a barnburner. I'm glad to see LaRoche actually came through with a big hit, I was starting to despair for that guy.

I'm also despairing for Underdog, who's apparently a fan of Satan's creation, the LOLcats.

I wonder if Carlos and Smith still consider Jesse Owens an Uncle Tom.

78 - Yes indeed. Quite enjoyed it, and for Maddin that was a more "normal" film. ;-) I enjoy his near-silent comedies, too.

80 Wouldn't say I'm a fan as much as my girlfriend and two of my coworkers send me pictures from there just about every other day. I admit to laughing hard at a few of the pictures on there, though, but it does grate quickly,

Plus my real cats have never LOL'd for me so I think it's very deceptive!

83
Maybe I just do not get all the jokes, but sometimes that site comes off a little racist to me.

Just visited the AZ snake pit and yikes. Dodger Thoughts is a ray of sunshine compared to the mood there.

I think today's game is another example of Torre over coaching the young players. Webb was not his usual self and hasn't been for awhile. Many of his pitches were up and down the middle, enough for Marc Grace to say several times how lucky Webb was that the Dodgers were taking those pitches.

Webb's reputation shut down the Dodgers more than did his pitching and I blame that on Torre.

It was better for Kent to be standing 5 feet off first and in the basepath to take Nomar's throw and when Nomar didn't throw it, Kent had to get out of the way or be called for interference.

76 At least Tony Jackson admits he's hasty in his latest blog entry. (And didn't have the opportunity to post that version.) He drives me nuts sometimes, because he makes these rash assumptions - as in how he's declared the Dodgers essentially dead several times.

The man has to meet deadlines and such, and its his own personal blog. I'm sure a few of us already called the Dodgers season dead and should plan for next year back when the team was ten games under .500.

83 Wouldn't say I'm a fan as much as my girlfriend and two of my coworkers send me pictures from there just about every other day.

I'd call that domestic abuse and workplace harassment. You should call a lawyer.

Kent getting slower as each day passes, getting tagged out while standing two feet off third on a grounder to third, Nomar botching a run down play, Jones continuing to not perform should be enough for LA Times writers to get off the backs of the younger players and instead start saying they might win in spite of the veterans. Same for Torre and Colletti.

86 I think today's game is another example of Torre over coaching the young players. Webb was not his usual self and hasn't been for awhile. Many of his pitches were up and down the middle, enough for Marc Grace to say several times how lucky Webb was that the Dodgers were taking those pitches.

Webb's reputation shut down the Dodgers more than did his pitching and I blame that on Torre.

I think its more of a case of the Vets not buying into Torre's philosophy and not getting called on it. Working deep into counts is great, but its not as effective when only half of the lineup tries to do it. I wish Andruw Jones worked the count, I certainly wish Jeff Kent did. I can live with Nomar not doing working the count because he's actually hitting.

And do you think its too radical moving the pitcher's spot 8th, and DeWitt's 9th? That might spur him on to show that he's not a worse hitter than a pitcher not named Kuo.

Expecting a veteran player to all of a sudden gain the ability to take pitches is asking a lot I think. Not everyone is going to take David Dellucci's approach.

The lowest WE was 2.8% today. Right after Kent hit into a double play.
vr, Xei

92 I really doubt the problem is veteran stubbornness.

The problem is Matt Kemp's inability to adjust to receptacles.