Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Help
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Dodger Thoughts
Archives

2009
02  01 

2008
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Four on the Florida
2003-09-15 09:08
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

The Marlins. Could it really be the Marlins?

From World Series title to fire sale to another playoff appearance - all in the time since the Dodgers last made the playoffs?

On Priorities & Frivolities today, Robert Garcia Tagorda makes one point that I was going to make - that the Dodgers have upped their power recently - and another point that I hadn't realized - that Florida is outpitching them.

Do you realize that, in September, the Dodgers have hit the third most home runs among all National League teams -- just one behind Philadelphia and Colorado, who've hit 18? Meanwhile, their pitching has stayed sharp with a 2.89 ERA, which is second in the majors.

But here's one reason why they're still 3.5 games back in the wild card standings: Florida has been just as good. Its 2.27 ERA is tops in the majors. Though it's scored about as many runs (62) as the Dodgers have this month, it's allowed considerably fewer runs (28). The Marlins are outscoring their opponents by nearly three runs per game (5.17 vs. 2.33).

Florida finally gave up a game when the Braves rallied for five runs in the ninth inning Sunday to salvage one of three games with the Marlins. There remain four other teams in the hunt with Florida for the two remaining playoff spots: Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia and the Dodgers.

Of all the teams in the National League, the Marlins have the toughest remaining schedule, according to Baseball Prospectus. But Florida is apparently playing such good ball that the site now has the Marlins as the favorites to hold on for the wild card.

Still ...

Chicago still has enough of a schedule advantage to win the National League Central - in fact, it wouldn't shock me if they were in first place by Thursday, playing the Mets while the Astros are in Coors Field. Or, Houston could outpitch the Rockies in Colorado, putting both NL Central teams in playoff position if Florida starts to falter.

Of course, if Florida falters, that will mean Philadelphia has done something right.

And the Dodgers?

We'll see what happens after they face Curt Schilling. He's ready to go on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. But in any case, it doesn't look like they'll be allowed to slacken their .667 pace (26-13) since August 2. If anything, they may have to extend their recent .765 run (13-4).

I'll be watching, even though it almost seems too much to ask. If the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs, boy, will they have earned it.


Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 14
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
90 ... Florida (54.9 percent)
88 ... Philadelphia (33.2 percent)
87 ... Los Angeles (8.9 percent)
87 ... Chicago (1.8 percent)
84 ... Arizona (0.1 percent)
82 ... St. Louis (0.3 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.0 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.