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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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Four on the Florida
2003-09-15 09:08
by Jon Weisman

The Marlins. Could it really be the Marlins?

From World Series title to fire sale to another playoff appearance - all in the time since the Dodgers last made the playoffs?

On Priorities & Frivolities today, Robert Garcia Tagorda makes one point that I was going to make - that the Dodgers have upped their power recently - and another point that I hadn't realized - that Florida is outpitching them.

Do you realize that, in September, the Dodgers have hit the third most home runs among all National League teams -- just one behind Philadelphia and Colorado, who've hit 18? Meanwhile, their pitching has stayed sharp with a 2.89 ERA, which is second in the majors.

But here's one reason why they're still 3.5 games back in the wild card standings: Florida has been just as good. Its 2.27 ERA is tops in the majors. Though it's scored about as many runs (62) as the Dodgers have this month, it's allowed considerably fewer runs (28). The Marlins are outscoring their opponents by nearly three runs per game (5.17 vs. 2.33).

Florida finally gave up a game when the Braves rallied for five runs in the ninth inning Sunday to salvage one of three games with the Marlins. There remain four other teams in the hunt with Florida for the two remaining playoff spots: Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia and the Dodgers.

Of all the teams in the National League, the Marlins have the toughest remaining schedule, according to Baseball Prospectus. But Florida is apparently playing such good ball that the site now has the Marlins as the favorites to hold on for the wild card.

Still ...

Chicago still has enough of a schedule advantage to win the National League Central - in fact, it wouldn't shock me if they were in first place by Thursday, playing the Mets while the Astros are in Coors Field. Or, Houston could outpitch the Rockies in Colorado, putting both NL Central teams in playoff position if Florida starts to falter.

Of course, if Florida falters, that will mean Philadelphia has done something right.

And the Dodgers?

We'll see what happens after they face Curt Schilling. He's ready to go on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. But in any case, it doesn't look like they'll be allowed to slacken their .667 pace (26-13) since August 2. If anything, they may have to extend their recent .765 run (13-4).

I'll be watching, even though it almost seems too much to ask. If the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs, boy, will they have earned it.


Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 14
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
90 ... Florida (54.9 percent)
88 ... Philadelphia (33.2 percent)
87 ... Los Angeles (8.9 percent)
87 ... Chicago (1.8 percent)
84 ... Arizona (0.1 percent)
82 ... St. Louis (0.3 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.0 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

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