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Ennui, Angst and Hope
2003-09-05 08:53
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

I don't know, guys.

It's September. The Dodgers are three games out. John Wiebe is banging out entries the size of the Mojave. L.A. Observed is promoting this site, admittedly to those "still clinging to interest."

I don't really know what to tell them.

When the games start, I'm into it. But in the quiet morning, I feel there may be no mystery left to the 2003 Dodgers.

They can pitch, assuming they stay healthy.

But they can't hit.

And they can't beat the teams in their own division.

I'm not depressed - I'm just resigned. Won't you be shocked if the Dodgers pull out a playoff bid?

Fourteen road games in the National League West remain for the Dodgers. I'm not big on singling out games as pivotal, but I think it would make all the difference in the world if the Dodgers could show tonight that they can win a road game against a divisional rival.

They are 6-18 on the road within the division. They're the Detroit Tigers. In all other games, the team is 66-48 - a .579 winning percentage.

In one-run road games within the division, the Dodgers are 2-9!

In road games within the division decided by two runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-11!!

In road games within the division decided by three runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-13!!!

In road games within the division decided by four runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-14!!!!

Not to mention the fact that in road games within the division in which the Dodgers have scored three runs or less, the Dodgers are 1-13!!!!

There's your unsolved mystery. Page M. Poirot. Bring this villainy to its knees, and you might just rescue September for the Dodgers from the evil Dr. Ennui and Mr. Angst.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 5
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (56.9 percent)
87 ... Florida (30.2 percent)
86 ... Houston (2.8 percent)
85 ... St. Louis (2.1 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (3.5 percent)
83 ... Arizona (1.4 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.4 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

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