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Nomonia
2003-08-27 08:34
It's silly to talk now about who will win the Cy Young Award, because the award is very often won in September. Take 2002, when Randy Johnson stepped up to take the prize from teammate Curt Schilling. But as Cy Young Fever gripped ESPN.com this week with a series of articles and polls, one candidate was being dismissed almost out of hand. And though it may be too early to annoint a winner, it wouldn't be too early to make sure someone's nominated. Out of more than 23,000 votes, Hideo Nomo received 3.8 percent for the National League Cy Young award. Russ Ortiz received four times as many, despite an ERA that is nearly a full run higher than Nomo's. Let's not even debate Ortiz vs. Nomo - if people follow the Joe Morgan line of thinking that Ortiz's three additional victories on the high-scoring Braves matter more than ERA, there's probably no saving them. However, we can look at Nomo vs. Kevin Brown. Tuesday, Jim Baker wrote on ESPN.com Insider of Nomo, "He is the second-best starter on his team. To be logical, that means he cannot possibly win the award in place of the best starter, Brown." Is it true that Brown is better than Nomo? To compare: Wins: Brown 12, Nomo 15 ERA: Brown 2.15, Nomo 2.70 Nevertheless, Brown has a significantly better ERA and a slightly better RA. Innings pitched: Brown 172, Nomo 190 1/3 To this point, Brown has a tiny, tiny edge on Nomo as the best pitcher on the team. Wins vs. run support cancels out as a factor, and innings works in Nomo's favor, but the narrow edge in runs allowed pulls Brown ahead. Win Shares, according to BaseballGraphs.com, supports Brown's case while illustrating just how close this race is. Brown is third in the NL with 16.44 win shares. Nomo is fourth, with 16.23. Now, Nomo is certainly within range to pull ahead of Brown - and everyone else - with a strong September. ERA advantages, for example, can easily swing in a month. However, these factors are working against Nomo. Strikeouts per 9 Innings: Brown 7.90, Nomo 7.28 Opponents' On-Base Percentage: Brown .283, Nomo .296 Nomo and Brown will have approximately seven more starts this season. If Nomo wins five of those, he gets 20 wins - and as Russ Ortiz shows us, wins can have a unreasonably powerful effect on legitimizing one's Cy Young candidacy. Based on the important numbers, however, the pundits are correct to pick Brown as the best Dodger starter. * * * Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of August 26 In an otherwise impatient, lonely world, the teeming crowd is shoving the Dodgers back from a train that refuses to leave them behind. * * * Feeling bad about Brian Giles? Console yourself with Aaron Boone's continued struggles: .478 OPS and now, according to Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus, "a sprained ankle which he turned, embarrassingly, while running out to his position."
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