It was just shocking to me that their 3rd base coach sent Castillo there. That is the single most bone-headed 3rd base coaching move I've seen this year.

320 Jason Johnson
--A sustained rebirth from Johnson would be a greater surprise than Chan Ho Park's 2008.

139 Eric Stults
--On paper, better than Johnson.

Billy Joel says that these are the time to remember, 'cause they will not last forever.

As much as it pains me to say this, Chan Ho probably warrants a mention as a starting candidate.

I wouldn't have guessed that Bills only trails Kevin Brown(?!?) in ERA+...how soon we forget.

3 - So does Kuo, for that matter, but I think the Dodgers may have resolved not to consider either for the rest of the year

Tony Jackson's coverage of the possible Maddux deal notes that Maddux's bad numbers are a product of playing for a bad team.

No mention (probably because he didn't research it) of how horrible Maddux has been away from Petco this year.

I had a dream last night that the Dodgers traded Andy Laroche for Esteban Loaiza and Matt Kemp for Chad Tracy.

Fitting to see Kuroda's ERA+ at almost exactly league-average. His up-and-down, great-one-start-horrible-the-next season has been driving me nuts, on both the Dodgers and my fantasy team.

3 - Why would it pain you to say that? Chan Ho has been great this season and every team is going to rely on more than the same five-man rotation to get them through the season. I am grateful that we have had some quality innings from Park, Stults and Johnson because players of their ilk are needed every season.

9 Because I still don't really believe in him and I haven't exactly been kind to him this year. Plus I considered Chan Ho to be somewhere around the number 12 starter this year, so I assumed we'd never see him.

When will you believe in him though, outta curiosity? September? (Or hopefully, October?) ;-)

3.5 hours to go folks. Go take a walk. We'll call you if anything happens.

10
Billy Joel asks (on Chan Ho's behalf), "What will it take til you believe in me, the way that I believe in you...?"

11 When his FIP and ERA actually are kind of close to each other. I'm still really scared his regression to the mean will happen at the worst possible time.

So how do you guys feel about my McDonald in August suggestion?

10 - That's too bad. I think we get caught up heaping too much support behind either great veterans or high ceiling young players. I don't think enough attention is paid to those journeymen that really do have value of the course of the season as we have seen. The team has to turn to somebody at various points during a season and I think it is great that we have gotten so much out of several guys who were not given a second thought at the beginning of the season.

14 I'm all for it, but doubtful it's going to happen. But maybe, if they don't end up acquiring Maddux after all and need a fresh arm at some point in August, it's possible. (But they might just call Stults back up for that.)

Sounds like the Griffey trade's a go. For two middling prospects, might be money involved. Could be his last chance for a ring (in a box).

14 I'm for it. We need to save some of Kershaw's innings for later.

15 The problem is that you don't really know when Chan Ho, Aaron Sele or Jose Lima is going to revert back to form. I just can't believe that journeymen suddenly figure it all out, the collapse is usually inevitable. Torre pulling Chan Ho from the rotation before it happens is a really great move.

14 I'd rather see McDonald make some August starts instead of Stults, or even Jason Johnson, but Brad Penny is the X factor. I'm hoping he can return in August, because we'll need him to be close to his old level of performance for the stretch run.

It would be interesting to see the ERA+ numbers from members of the bullpen, as well as some stat that shows the volatility/up and down starts from Kuroda. His ERA+ is right around league average, but he sure has taken a wild path of getting there.
vr, Xei

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14. Do we have an opening in the rotation? If we do then it's no worse than trading for Maddux.
vr, Xei

17 - I don't think it is about figuring it all out. I think it is about getting quality innings out of players that were summarily disregarded at a time when the team needs it. We are not looking for long-term projection out of these players, just short-term gain which we have gotten in spades.

FLAKE - Standard deviation of per-start SNVA for each pitcher. This was previously shown as the variance, and was used to compute the "flakiest" pitchers.

1. Hiroki Kuroda

Chan Ho Park's HR/inn. are about career-average. His K's are up there at 58 over 70 innings. Giving up a hit an inning. Solid control. Fastball's in the low 90s. Martin may or may not be impacting his staff in a positive way with his pitch calling. I don't see a reason to worry too much.

Park's ERA may finish in the low 3s instead of it's current 2.42 ERA, which will mean a few bumpy outings, but still better than his 4.2 career mark.

21 The problem is that these guys are known useless players. You can't predict how Brandon Webb is going to do in the short term, and you definately can't predict how some journeyman will do. Sometimes you end up with Chan Ho, sometimes you get Scott Erickson.

19 -

242 Hong-Chih Kuo
183 Chan Ho Park
252 Joe Beimel
139 Jonathan Broxton
159 Cory Wade
85 Brian Falkenborg
78 Ramon Troncoso
203 Takashi Saito
65 Scott Proctor
--- Scott Elbert

also, Park is facing lineups like the Padres', Giants', and Diamondbacks' fairly often. He can get those guys out.

22. Where did you find the list?
vr, Xei

23 Doesn't Chan Ho's fastball touch 94-97 MPH? In the past few years, his fastball's been junk, and it's nice to see him regain some of the strength and stuff that he had earlier in his career.

Some Greg Maddux home/away splits:

IP: 73.0/61.1
ERA: 2.84/6.02
OPSA: .649/.842
BABIP: .245/.353
K/BB: 2.85/2.83

His strikeout-to-walk ratio is almost identical at Petco or on the road. But look at that disparity in BABIP.

Might not be the worst acquisition, if Ned can get him cheaply enough.

24 - Clearly they have not been useless. Park was injured for several seasons and is now healthy and throwing with increased velocity. I see no reason to believe that he won't be effective for the rest of the season. Johnson and Stults are a likely not more than #5 starters but they have given us better than #5 results when called upon.

I wonder... would Maddux accept a role in the bullpen? He just seems like a valuable asset on so many other levels.

Griffey apparently OKed the deal to the ChiSox. I'm not sure how much he'll help Chicago, but I'm glad there's a chance we'll see Junior in the postseason this year.

25 It's kind of surprising how much higher Kuo and Beimel's ERA+'s are than Broxton's. I realize the guy's not quite at his usual pace, but he still has a very solid 3.18 normal ERA. What goes into ERA+ anyway?

I would picture Maddux as a pretty poor reliever. He doesn't come out like a house afire when he pitches.

I have a feeling we'll be calling the time as we get closer to 1pm, much like Vin Scully in Koufax's perfect game ("9:46pm...").

I picture Maddux as a pretty poor starter.

24 I would think that if Chan Ho was still the 'useless player' he was during his exile from Dodger Stadium, he'd have shown it by now. Surely, going into August, we've long since exited small sample size territory?

32 Quentin to the Dodgers for Pierre and Lowe

Maddux to the Dodgers for some C prospect

Chicago's log-jam in the outfield is fixed and they finally get that starting pitcher they've been looking for! ;)

14 Worth a shot. Provided there's a spot for him (Penny's not back, Kuroda is banged up, etc.) I have no objection to McDonald getting a shot.

33
It's just ERA adjusted for park effects and compared to the league. 100 is average.

maddux does have mildly better numbers early in the pitch count... but don't we all?

27 BP custom report.

36 Maddux looked like a fairly poor bet when we got him from the Cubs in '06 and he proved to be quite a spark. There could be something to the notion that he focuses a bit more when he's in the middle of a pennant race.

Brent,

I miss the Appetizer in PV. Their submarine sandwich was awesome, but the last time I went they no longer used the marinated lettuce in the Italian dressing...it changed the whole sandwich for me. I was very sad.

35 Every hour, on the hour, one of us does a Vin imitation of the countdown... who's with me?

Bottom line, I do not trust Kuroda, I'd trade him in a heartbeat if I could get return value. I think he has great abilities and if everything goes well, he's near perfect. But errors and freak happenings shake him too much. Maybe the phrase is "lose concentration" but whatever, his effectiveness is gone. Players used to call this "having rabbit ears". Broxton may, I say may, have the same problem, it is not uncommon. I remember a Dodger game, playoffs or World Series, where Burt Hooten blew up. He thought the umpire missed a call or two on him and he completely lost it, couldn't throw a strike at all. He never completed the first inning.

37 You can keep things up for a while if you're lucky. Kyle Kendrick went all of last year on fairy dust.

No Maddux. He will do to us what Glavin did to the Mets on the last day of'07.

47 - Then what is the problem? A while is better than nothing at all and it is not like we are placing the future of the franchise on their shoulders, we have other players for those honors.

45
It's 9:06am. One for one with Kevin Towers. Ned looks in, and here's his pitch. Aguasviva to the Padres!

Either the Dodgers just traded for Brett Favre, or I've gone bleary-eyed from watching too much ESPN.

14 - I listened to parts of McDonald's start last night and it sounded like he was really laboring. He had some command issues and gave up a lot of line drives but maybe it was just a bad outing because he had a pretty good July (in spite of a sharp decline in his k/bb). One thing to keep in mind is that he has already thrown 118 innings. Last year he threw 134 total. But nevertheless I'd love to see him pitch for the Dodgers this year.

McDonald K/BB:
PreJuly 3.1
July 1.25

Avg. 5.4 IP per start on the year.

27 - Just the Dodgers' Baseball-Reference team page.

"What's that old saying? 'It gets late early out here?' That was from Yogi Berra and for Dodger fans, it's been late for days now--the trading deadline is a mere four hours away but for most of us, it may as well seem like four days. So many rumors, too many to mention, the latest being Matt Kemp being part of a package to go east while Manny Ramirez comes west to the Dodgers--we read that on sportsillustrated.com in an article by Jon Heyman, not to be confused with that sage of the internet, the all-knowing and all-powerful Jon Weisman but that's another story. For now, Dodger fans are sitting on pins and needles waiting, just waiting because that's all they can do until something--or nothing--happens. Until 1pm, if not sooner..."

My bad imitation of Vinny, counting down to the trade deadline. Back in an hour.

46 He hasn't been giving up HR's or walking many people. I just chalk last 4 or 5 starts to tough luck. He'll be fine.

If for no other reason, Maddux would again be great to have on the bench as another pitching coach for the young guys. He will also rise to the heat of the battle to be on a contender again. Dodgers should have never gotten rid of him in the first place. Off topic but I really need to know: Where is Rick Monday? I hear Steve Lyons now on the radio. What happened to Mo? Forgive the random off topic. But I gotta know.

Sorted by FIP, which only takes into account things like HR, SO and BB. vr, Xei

Saito 1.82
Troncoso 1.90 (.Note: .383 babip)
Guo 1.95
Broxton 2.37
Billingsley 3.15
Beimel 3.25
Lowe 3.41
Kuroda 3.86
Johnson 3.98
Wade 4.03
Park 4.07
Kershaw 4.23
Penny 4.66
Stults 4.73
Falkenborg 5.09
Proctor 5.33

To me, this list shows just how great Billingsley is. His FIP is 4th in the NL (also 4th in the NL West), behind Haren (2.78), Lincecum (2.82) and Webb 3.01), based on min 100 IPs. FWIW, the 5th and 6th are also NL West pitchers (Peavy, Lowe... excluding Sabathia). Also what stands out is how well Troncoso has pitched. His peripherals are outstanding and has taken a beating from a .383 BABIP against.
vr, Xei

It seems like having Maddux as a pitching coach is like having Vince Young do color commentary.

"Well the quarterback got a little pressure here, so he obviously should have ran it 80 yards to the house"

Maddux is one of the greatest control pitchers ever, does his stuff work if you can't throw all of your pitches exactly where you want them?

57 I asked this question on Sat and never really got an answer.

Isn't K/9IP a bad way to measure how effective a strikeout pitcher someone is? Wouldn't strikeout % be more effective?

The example I use is a guy pitches 6 innings gives up 7 hits and 2 walks but k's 7. That's a 10.5 K/9IP ratio, but K'd 26% of the batters faced. Another guy k's 6 in 6, but gives up 1 hit and 0 walks. His K rate is 9 K/9IP, but k's 31.5% of the batters faced.

Wouldn't that skew some FIP's one way or another?

Long Beach would love to see James McDonald in August.

Happy Trade Deadline Day everybody!

Observe it a manner consistent with your religious faith.

Was a 100 ERA+ the break even point for the Kuroda Accords?

Or was it higher?

61
I shall spend the day venerating the Virgin Mary and drinking sacramental wine out of a paper cup.

Redondo Beach would also love to see McDonald in August.

I loved the ending of Mark T.R. Donohue's latest Bad Altitude post:

"In order to make this a successful road trip, the Rockies have to win a series in Miami. That'll be a tall order considering that Colorado is starting not one but two former Brewers with "De" in their last names in the series."

63 Light a candle for me, Bob!

Also, if one is near Palos Verdes, one might as well schlep to San Pedro for a delicious sandwich from Busy Bee's.

Best. Sammiches. Ever.

0
Unless Penny has a setback I see no reason for McDonald. McDonald may be better in the long term but I doubt that if he was put in the rotation today he would fair any better then Johnson, Stults, or Park.

Andrew you must have watched Park pitch quite a bit this year. He is throwing quality stuff, and his peripherals have been climbing all year.

He kind of reminds me of Alvarez who was washed up with a history of arm injuries when we gave him one more shot. He was finally healthy and his once solid stuff returned. As long as Wilson was healthy he produced for us. If Chan Ho was throwing 88-90 will little movement I'd understand your concern but I see a nasty fastball and his command is solid enough that he has become a solid member of the pitching staff. I know you hate to be wrong, but it is July 30th and he is not going to turn into a pumpkin. He still may have a rough outing or two as even someone as talented as Broxton will but I'm sold and have been for several months.

66
Candles are $5.

68
Religious freedom isn't free.

I can get Greg Brock a deal on indulgences though.

Here's a deadline day issue that I've been wondering about since I was a kid: Who's job is it to photoshop a player's new team's uniform onto their MLB stock photo on ESPN broadcasts? Do you think they just pasted a hat and a uniform on top of his old photo?

59. =((HR*13 + Walks*3 - SO*2)/IP) + 3.2

Your example 1 yields a FIP of...
((0 + 6 - 14) / 6) + 3.2
FIP = 1.87

Example 2 yields a FIP of...
((0 + 0 - 12) / 6) + 3.2
FIP = 1.20

So yes, the second pitcher will have a lower expected ERA based on FIP. Keep in mind that your example is extreme as it's based on only one outing (small sample size). vr, Xei

The White Sox trade is a real head scratcher. Thome is on fire so he can't DH. The three outfielders have all performed much better then Griffy and they have a possible MVP candidate in Quentin. Can't bench Dye or Swisher.

Is Konerko done and they are going to move Swisher to 1st and Griffey to CF? Yikes

70 I know a guy in the indulgences district.

65. Bob, I thought you of all people would've caught that it should've been "de", not "De". :)
vr, Xei

Has anyone ever been traded for a Class A player and then been the MVP the following year? Or any minor leaguer for that matter in a one on one deal?

62
The Kuroda Accord©
failure
< 125IP ERA+ 96

break even
125IP-150IP ERA+ 96-106

success
150+IP ERA+ 106+

© Nate Purcell Industries, 2007

"When you have young players, even if with the player you can get, you may not want to give up a young player who isn't as good as he's going to be," said Torre. "Those are the ground rules. Matt Kemp is good now and in a couple years he'll be special. Kemp may be better than the guy you're going to get, and that guy probably is making a ton of money. That's just good business sense there."

mlb.com

yeah.

73. "Yes" to your last sentence.
vr, Xei

71
Alen Davidian

Alert: Don Mattingly will be on Jim Rome at the top of the 2nd hour of his show. Which is in a half hour here at least.

75
It was cutting and pasting.

73 At this point I have to believe he's insurance for when Thome makes his annual trip to the DL. Quentin/Griffey/Dye would give Manny/Ross/Willingham a run for it's money in defensive incompetence, which would really hurt Danks and Vazquez.

78 I'm off to go buy a Joe Torre poster.

77
Seems like a lot of money for break even. Kyle Lohse is having a season that I did not think was in him.

78
That's just good business sense there

I know it was an overall good point by Torre, but for some reason I can't read that without thinking Ron Burgundy saying "Its Science."

73 Yeah that one's a real head scratcher, I agree.

61 I'll be holding a silent meditation followed by a reading from the Old Testament in Hebrew, particularly Logan 15:6, in which the patriarch Colletti is warned about trading thine youth.

Nothing on Rick Monday? Anybody know what happened to Mo? Has he been relegated to announcing only away games?

I, for one, welcome our trade deadline overlords.

83
Given the size of the Marlin outfield, I would be afraid to take the mound if Willingham/Manny were allowed to be in the same outfield. It would be like having two Greg Luzinski's.

what does cash in the back pocket have to do with pitching machines?

Busy Bee is good, but I also like Lighthouse Cafe in San Pedro. Amazing BBQ beef sandwich on a toasted roll mmmmmmmmm

85-->12 mils does seem pretty high amount for a league average pitcher.

88. Wasn't he going to the White House to commemorate his flag saving play? Not sure when that was scheduled, but Lyons sure is brutal on the radio.
vr, Xei

85
Seems like a lot of money for break even

Are you saying Kuroda's AB music should be "You Wreck Me" by Tom Petty? :)

It's valuable to be average. So far, there are only 60 starters in MLB this year with 100 IP and a 100 ERA+.

I'm off to Lou Mitchell's in Chicago. Best omelets I've run into in my travels.

89

I will cast my vote for the third party.

92. $12Mil should give you around 2.5 win above replacement, right?
vr, Xei

Huh, this sounds familiar. (From MLBTR:)

"The Rays appear unlikely to make a trade, by the way. Perhaps they're cursed by their own loaded farm system."

from will carroll at bp:

The Red Sox, on the other hand, will try to deal Manny Ramirez even if the Pirates fall out. They can't do a dea