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Environmental Oddities
2003-05-02 09:22
by Jon Weisman

Maybe it's global warming. Or more to the point, local warming. But after a month this season, offense is higher in Dodger home games than it is in road games.

.733...Dodger batters' OPS at home
.643...Dodger batters' OPS on road

.670...Dodger pitchers' OPS allowed at home
.617...Dodger pitchers' OPS allowed on road

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Dodger Stadium has been a ballpark that has favored pitchers over hitters every year of its existence. Last year, for example, Dodger Stadium's park factor was 91, on a scale where anything below 100 favors pitchers and anything above 100 favors hitters.

In 2003, the Dodgers have played games in the following cities:


City................2002 Park Factor...2003 Runs/Game...2003 Runs Allowed/Game

Los Angeles.................91..............................4.2......................................3.4
Arizona........................108..............................5.7.......................................1.7
San Diego....................92..............................1.8.......................................4.0
San Francisco.............91..............................2.3.......................................3.3
Cincinnati...............New Park.......................1.3.......................................2.3
Pittsburgh...................106..............................5.0.......................................2.3

On the road, as one would expect, the Dodgers have scored amply in hitters' parks, amplessly in pitchers' parks. Their only above-average production in a pitchers' park has been at home, which makes sense if you believe in the home-cooking theory.

Dodger pitchers, on the other hand, have not followed the pattern. They have been average at home, effective in hitters' parks like Pittsburgh and Arizona, and average-to-below-average in pitchers' parks like San Diego and San Francisco (two opponents with a vast gap in talent, I might add).

Is it merely low sample size that is the cause of the contrarian behavior of the Dodger pitching staff? Maybe. Consider this, then. If the Dodger pitchers revert to form on the road, it could bode well for the team:

4.2...average margin of victory in Dodger wins in road hitters' parks
2.6...average margin of defeat in Dodger losses in road pitchers' parks

The Dodgers have considerable runs to spare in hitters' parks on the road. But in pitchers' parks on the road, the Dodgers are losing by a narrower margin.

It's just a theory, perhaps based on insufficient evidence, but we may see more improvement in the Dodgers' .438 road record than we'll see decline in their .538 home record.

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