Ehh, that's depressing, but just reinforces that DePo also ran into a lot of bad luck and did not have the luxury of the kids being ready.

Is this the latest NPUT?

1 - I don't understand the question.

Ach, you never think you can get LAT'd after midnight, but...

645. dzzrtRatt
Seems to me that right about now is when the PVL should kick in. Guys like Kent, Manny, Lowe, Nomar and Blake -- not to overlook Torre, Mattingly and Honeycutt -- are supposed to be have an aura that will help right the ship. Seriously. They should be able to get the young guys to calm down, take it easy, stop stressing out and focus on what they can control. If the PVL theory has any merit, this team should be able to turn things around. We have more PVLs than 'Zona, so that means we should be able to pass them.

Alternate theory: We have the exact wrong mix of players for a pennant race. Our players are either too young or too old to avoid fatigue in September. The young guys are used to shorter seasons and haven't yet learned to pace themselves (Kemp excluded). The old guys are just worn-down (Manny excluded). Hence, the bats aren't getting around on balls as fast as they were before, and the pitches don't have the same snap.

2
Latest time at night that there has been a NPUT.

0 By the way, this is another stellar post, Jon. You make the creative leaps in figuring out how to view the team that few sportwriters think of. And you do it in such a friendly, casual way. You'll never be an aggressive blowhard sportstalk guy in New York, I suppose, but your perspective on sports is always stimulating and enlightening.

My word. There are so many ways a baseball season can go wrong...thanks for the perspective, Jon.

4 - Oh. No, it's not. Don't forget, I've had three babies - four if you count this book.

5 - Thanks. I did feel like I owed the doomsayer crowd something after being so tough on them in the comments.

jon, re: players with 2 strikes...if u make a mistake 2-2 or 3-2 good players will still crush it. maybe that's what separate the average players from the elite, pitch recognition etc. hopefully kemp will be there in a couple years. i am nervously optimistic.

thanks for a great site. i've been a long time lurker, right before depo was hired. i will pledge either $5 per billz win here on out (including playoffs!!!) or kemp's home run...whichever is greater. i had a friendly bet with a friend when billz was 0-4 that he'd have at least 15 wins this year.

It's just as well that you didn't do the manager and GM comparision. Those could get pretty ugly.

7 I couldn't handle the comments tonight much. Nor the game for that matter. I had the TV on, but kept flipping to the convention, and also to TNT's showing of "Touch of Evil," one of my favorites. I knew they'd lose. I knew they wouldn't score. I knew the Nats wouldn't score again either, making this game tantalizing, but I wasn't falling for it. They need to win a laugher to get out of this, and it will happen. Eventually. But in the meantime, the shared misery makes my brain hurt too much. There's nothing you can say.

8
Welcome. Is your handle pronounced super bas?

8 - Thanks for the nice words.

In the NL this season, batters have a .490 OPS with a 2-2 count and an .829 OPS with a 3-2 count. So it looks like there's a further distinction to be made between the two situations.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?lg=NL&team=TOT&year=2008

Anyway, this season Kemp is at .497 OPS at 2-2 and .836 OPS at 3-2.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=kempma01&year=2008

Pujols is at 1.000 on 2-2 and 1.043 on 3-2.

Andruw Jones is OPSing .149 on 2-2 and .763 on 3-2 (4 for 28 with 15 walks).

Okay, that should do it for me. Going for my second cycle of the evening. Good night everyone.

Pujols should win MVP in a season where he probably should have had TJ surgery.

I think he is a cyborg.

No matter how bad things get for the team, one need only take a look at the posts on the Dodgers.com message board to be assured that the 2008 Dodgers are much better than a large number of profoundly stupid Dodger fans deserve. Really, any force or circumstance that can bring those miserable people yet more misery -- even a Dodger losing streak -- has to have some redeeming value.

Kemp has an 80 OPS point split between his CF and RF production. 2008 sOPS+ for CF is 74, for RF, it's 117. In 2005, the split was, CF: 123, RF: 104.

trainwreck--yes just the way it's spelled i think. the brooklyn superbas became the dodgers in the early 1910s.

Ethier has a 190 OPS point RF/LF split difference. RF is enchanted. The all you can eat pavilion is clearly creating a positive energy zone. Time to open the floodgates and make every seat come with a bottomless supply of hot dogs and pretzels. Unless Moneybags is too cheap to do what needs to be done to get the team back on track.

19
Shows how much I know, had no idea about that.

19 -- When I first glanced your on-screen name (a quick glance) I thought your name was "superbras" -- like some exotic species of ladies' foundation garment.

Maybe the parking situation could be improved by handing out hotdogs in the parking lot. Then when that works, Caltrans could adopt it as a traffic abatement strategy, state-wide. I've always thought the 405 could be fixed with a few metric tons of pork offal.

Who can forget Choi's 3 HRs vs the Twins? A strange year - almost 50 baserunners the last 3 games and 3 runs. In the same year, the Dodgers get no-hit and win, 1-0. When I was in SF on July 5, I went to the bathroom late in the game and heard a commotion behind me. There was Lasorda, in panic mode, racing to one of the stalls. While Tommy was in there, a group gathered outside, armed with cell phone cameras, to await his exit. A very strange year indeed.

The fact that I'm up now is only a factor of having to catch an obscenely early flight at LAX.

Airplanes shouldn't depart at 6:15 am. Tony Jackson wouldn't like it.

I'd love to see a miracle, but after five in a row I find myself increasingly taking solace in the notion of a Ned-less 2009. Now if we collapse but Ned survives, I'll need a good shrink.

19 ,21

Actually considering the discussion of French pronunciation we had a couple days ago, I thought that the handle was

"super bas"

in French >super low or about as low as you can go (a reference to last night's game ?)

After much reflection, I think Superbas should be pronounced as a derivative of superb and not of super. Of, course much reflection doesn't always make it right.
And it's safer making this kind of comment assuming Bob is in transit somewhere.

27 Interesting we both blurted at once.

I have a question about how major league teams travel (or any pro team for that matter?

I know most have their own private planes.

But do all of the passengers have to go through the same check points that common travelers go through?

Its strange, but you'd think an airport is where you could see famous people everyday, but that doesnt seem to be the case.

Do the Dodgers (or lakers, etc) just exit their private planes directly to a bus thats waiting for them on the runway?

I believe the pronunciation is su-PURR-buhs

30 I've seen tons of celebrities at airports. Most recently was the guy who plays Lloyd on Entourage. My favorite was seeing Billy Corgan grabbing his bags at LAX looking like he just got off stage: bald head, floor-length black overcoat, painted fingernails. He lives in character, like Kirk Lazarus.

I don't know if this counts as a celebrity sighting, but I said hello to Will Leitch outside of my local watering hole last night. We chatted for a bit about the miserable seasons of the Dodgers and Cardinals. He informed me of the Dodgers score, and I was so depressed I didn't even bother going in for a beer.

3. Perhaps the PVL thing is working the other way--the inexperienced players have an aura that keeps the ship unsettled. I tend to go with your alternate theory though.

What's up with Andrew Jones getting work at 1B in Vegas? Is there any plan behind this, considering we have a first baseman that lacks power?

What's up with Andrew Jones getting work at 1B in Vegas? Is there any plan behind this, considering we have a first baseman that lacks power?

Yeah. The last thing we need is another first baseman who lacks power.

0 - Though they are only three games out of first place with 30 to play, if the 2008 Dodgers finish the season 11-19, they will become the second-worst Dodger team since 1988. If they finish the season 19-11, they'll probably be playing ball in October.

If the Dodgers finish 16-14, they'll be watching the TV, too. I think that's generous considering this team's basic ineptitude, or to be kind, its inconsistency.

There were several callers on Dodger Talk last night who suggested that Juan Pierre starting over Ethier would be the "spark" that the Blue needed to shake them out of the doldrums. I shouldn't listen to Dodger Talk.

22 - "superbra" is an actual product name of a brassiere made by Panache:

http://tinyurl.com/5m7jbe

"The Superbras" would be a great name for a lesbian softball team, especially if they were in on the joke.

35 - No matter how negative I go, it's like there's no pleasing you, Rob.

36 - you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

38 - I'm sorry, I didn't mean to come across as critical. It's just that I think Ned overestimated this team's postseason chances at the trade deadline, and he badly overpaid for it.

I think Ned overestimated this team's postseason chances at the trade deadline

I think it's more likely that he wanted to maximized the team's postseason chances in order to maximize his own chances of keeping his job.

34. Well, I asked that with a degree of seriousness--I mean, what if any, is the plan there--is it to simply get him playing time, is there the hope that he regains his stroke in time to split time with Loney (I know, I know)? Blue needs some power, and options appear to be limited...

Long time lurker and infrequent poster. Jon and the regulars make this a great site. It's been a great companion as I've traveled a ton this season. I've been so frustrated the last few days that I've boycoted the last couple of games and threatened my wife and friends that I was going to StubHub my remaining season tickets. I will however be representing (silently) Friday night in AZ. Second row behind the home dugout with a die hard DBack fan who is also an important customer. The things we do for money.

Good post Jon. The one change I would make is that center field should be a walk for 2005. Werth was terrible that year but still managed above an .850 OPS as a center fielder, and Drew and Bradley were beasts when they played the position.

For True Blue Andrew:

http://tinyurl.com/fortrueblueandrew

Dodger Centerfielders:

2005: .278/.364/.481/.845
2008: .230/.298/.350/.648

0
Now that is depressing. Makes all my optimism about the team seem very misplaced. I blame it all on the Diamondbacks. If they played like a division winner should play then I could call it quits on this team, but when Cy Young gets jumped by the lowly Padre offense the candle is not ready to be snuffed no matter how weak the flame.

Funny stuff going on over at Bronx Banter under the Ugliosity thread.

45 Hey, the attractive person at the office said it looked good. Mock me all you want.

45
That is so cold. I really wish Andrew had not shared his coloring escapades. The man is so private and yet felt the need to tell us he is now sporting "caramel kiss".

Hey, the attractive person at the office said it looked good

What's his name...?

48
That is because she now feels you are safe.

49 I'm really okay with it.

51 Would I go to some dude on the street and ask them to perform an emergency appendectomy? No, I'd go to a doctor. So why should I care if D4P mocks my hair.

.500 teams in a pennant race, from my 15 or so years of watching baseball, can be very dangerous.

I wonder what would have happened if the '05 Dodgers, bad as they were, were still in contention mid-July.

48

I plead the fifth. :)

It's too early to think about football in my world view, but last night's loss has me close to packing it in for the '08 Dodgers. I don't see an '07 Rockies-type run from this group...bullpen is too shaky and they're making no luck at the plate. I'm not ready to say 'Wait til next year,' but I'm close.

If I was McCourt, I'd be ready to fire Ned Coletti after the last out. I'm sure he's a nice guy...I've just felt he was in over his head since day one...There's got to be a better manager than Joe Torre too. His train sailed in 2000....

Joe Torre too. His train sailed in 2000....

Torre's train sailed so long ago that they didn't even have trains back then.

44 - I had it your way originally, then I hedged my bets and changed it. But you're probably right.

sOPS+ for Dodger Centerfielders:

2005: 123
2008: 73

How does a train sail?

Andrew=Reg?

What is the story behind this whole hair thing?

41 - I think it's more likely that he wanted to maximized the team's postseason chances in order to maximize his own chances of keeping his job.

But shouldn't the team's chances of actual success be the biggest factor when considering which actions to take? It's one thing if you're the '87 Tigers and you realize you're nearing the end of a player development upsurge and you need a Doyle Alexander; giving up someone like John Smoltz is reasonable if you're thatclose to winning it all, a point Dave Studeman made a couple years ago in reviewing that trade:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/smoltz-for-alexander/

But you make those kinds of moves when you're at the top or very near it AND you have a good shot at doing something in the postseason. The '87 Tigers were a game and a half back of Toronto in the AL East when they made their August 12 trade and their final push.

56 - har. I bet it was oxen with stone-wheeled wagons.

Wow, that was a frustrating week of baseball. It really is a strange game, and rationally I understand that the Dodgers aren't as horrible as they looked this week but emotionally I can't help but look at my TV in disgust and mutter to myself "this team sucks."

I'm nearly as frustrated with the Diamondbacks for being as inconsistent as we are and keeping my hopes alive for a post-season berth that will almost certainly be dashed on the altar of utter mediocrity. Worse, I'm starting to worry a bit about our future, and wondering if the collective group of Kemp, Martin, Loney, Ethier, Hu are really the answer. When our former cast-offs of Jayson Werth and Cody Ross have more home runs than any Dodger, something seems amiss.

19 Actually, the Superbas became the Brooklyn "Robins" (after their new manager Wilbert Robinson) in the 00's, and didn't become known (again) as the Dodgers until he retired in 1931.

But shouldn't the team's chances of actual success be the biggest factor when considering which actions to take?

Maybe, but I doubt GM's always act with the team's best (especially, long-term) interest in mind, especially when they're worried about losing their job.

45 - I think the real moral of that link is that any woman can look better if her portrait is taken by a photographer who knows how to arrange lighting and camera angles. The "before" picture is almost a mugshot, with harsh, direct frontal lighting from a 3/4 position with the camera staring head-on at her, and no efforts to "clean up" the freckles in her neckline. The second photo looks like they've either applied makeup to her decolletage or Photoshopped it out. She's also smiling in the second photo, which is an automatic plus, and has on a more glamorous top with matching earrings. The camera has also moved: it's now just under her chin and looking slightly up at her. The lighting also appears to be a bit higher and more directly behind the camera. These are the kinds of tricks you often seen in makeup ads where they do "before" and "after" shots.

Really good perspective, Jon, interesting to look at them both side by side. I do think it's a little unfair if people here remark on how much bad luck DePodesta had that year trying to manage a team through so much tumult and injury and not having the farm system quite ready to supply -- all of which is true -- but to not give the same credit (or debit) to this year's model, which has ALSO had a lot of bad luck, on top of some Colletti-designed stupidity, to be sure. But as much as most of us don't like NedCo it would seem a tad unfair to say 05 was full of bad luck and this year hasn't been.

There's plenty of bad mojo to go around for both seasons, not even counting this bizarro past week. And while 05 felt hopeless for most of the season, with many of us following Jacksonville with much more interest, this year at least has a little bit of hope for the now and more hope for the future, at least as far as I can see, NedCo Damage or no.

--

Btw, first time I saw/heard of that old Brooklyn nickname, I stupidly thought it was Super-bas, as in, like an amazingly powerful sheep's cry. "Baaaaa!" instead of, duh, superb(a). I kind of like the idea of a team with a sheep logo on their jerseys for some reason.

Cool handle, anyway.

Has anyone figured out how the Tigers so bad & the White Sox are so good this year?

While the Dodgers probably get the most disappointing team award in the NL, the Tigers probably get it for all of baseball.

60 Apparently the man says I can't use women's hair dye.

67 The pitching imploded. Verlander and Bonderman were seen as sure things and got hurt, while Robertson, Rogers, and Willis had some pretty big red flags.

And superbra is an even better nickname with an even better team logo, to be sure.

But as much as most of us don't like NedCo it would seem a tad unfair to say 05 was full of bad luck and this year hasn't been.

Besides Furcal's injury, what other bad luck has happened to the Dodgers?

71 The massive amounts of injuries to all of our infielders? Jones regressing even harder than the biggest critics could have expected? Saito?

Actually, I think I figured out why the White Sox are so good.

Two players: Gavin Floyd & Carlos Quentin

Both have given them way way way way way more than anyone thought coming into the season.

72
Furcal missed most of last season with injuries. Doesn't seem like "bad luck" for him to miss more time this year, especially since his back problems seem chronic now.

Kent is old. No bad luck there.

Jones is fat. What's unlucky about that?

Saito is old too. No big surprise there.

I just keep reminding myself to take this one day at a time. We are still in this thing, so I will still have some hope.

It's funny because at the beginning of the season, I didn't expect us to be close to making it to the playoffs, and I was happy with just letting the team grow and develop. I can't believe AZ didn't run away with this thing a month ago. I would not be surprised to see Colorado make a run for it.

72- I dont think Jones sucking is "bad luck". He wasnt good in 2007.

Saito's injury hurt, but isnt that made up for by the better than average performance the Dodgers have found out of Wade/Beimel/Park ?

LaRoche was hurt early in the season, but then he wasnt given a chance to play. So that wasnt bad luck, but just dumb Dodger mgmt.

Nomar, hurt or not hurt, is probably done as an effective player anyways.

I'm not sure if the "luck" part has played a big role this year. Most had the Dodgers around 80-84 wins, & thats what they'll likely end up with.

74 Werth, Drew, and Bradley were known injury risks, Valentin is old, Odalis is fat.

Are there pics of regfairfield floating around on the internets?

74
I'm not talking about 2005 and whether it was bad lucky or not: I'm just talking about 2008.

78 You can find them if you try. You know my name and the general area where I live.

76 So is Pirates playing LaRoche everyday 'dumb management' then? Because he's not making that team better with his poor play at the moment.

81 No, because they aren't trying to win right now.

I don't have the time to do it, but how about a comparison between the 2005 Dodgers at this time in the season vs. 2008. Offhand, I would take 2008 in a heartbeat, regardless of the current state of things.

Another reason that the Tigers have been bad is Edgar Renteria. Maybe the Braves knew something when they dealt him? To get Jair Jurrjens for him is turning out to be a steal.

Renteria:
.266/.315/.369 in 436 ABs this year.

He's going to be 34 next year (he could be older, who knows), so maybe he's done.

But that is looking like a dynamite trade for the Braves.

Maybe Renteria can only function in the NL?

Furcal's injury was devastating to this team and bad luck. Whether he had been injured once before doesn't seem to change the fact that he was by all appearances both healthy and hot when the year started.

Absolutely, a lot of the injuries and struggles that happened probably could have been predicted or at least expected to a certain degree, but to have ALL of them occur together still seems a bit unlucky. Jones had regressed last year but I would've happily taken his stats from last year this season. Did anyone expect him to be THIS bad? Like, historically bad? I sure didn't. Saito's older so we could've expected something to happen to him this season, but he was healthy until the pennant drive.

The Dodgers have also literally had some bad luck streaks where they've hit the ball well but at people and nothing to show for it. That happens to every team but a couple of their streaks seem to have some BABIP + black cat curse about them.

Penny wasn't as effective in the second half last year but I didn't expect us to spend most of the season without the guy most experts said was our "ace" entering the season. (I could've predicted Bills would really become our ace, but didn't expect Penny to be worthless all year.) Oh, and that Cory Wade you mentioned who was a surprise, in a pleasant way, this season, and became a critical set-up man for the 'pen, he's been injured during this losing streak, too. His presence may have meant at least one win. Delwyn Young, arguably our one decent pinch hitter of the bench? Injured for more than a month. Third base? Nomar and Andy LaRoche, one of