498 - not if you're winning close games with the good pitcher and getting blown out in losses. Say Pitcher X throws 5 shut outs and his team scores 2 runs in each of those games, so in those 5 games they are +10 in runs scored. Then, let's say the day after each of those 5 shut outs, the team loses 12-2 in each game for a nice -50. Over all, they are -40 but they are 5-5 in those ten games, easily out performing their expected wins and losses.

Looking forward to the WBC. I guess since the Dodgers will be hosting the event they will be more friendly to those players who would like to participate this year. Expect to see Martin playing for Canada.

But, if Tim Lincecum is the opening day starter for the Giants, the Dodgers will miss him during that first series in LA.

Wait a minute, no they didn't! We get the AL West this year, with an exception for the White Sox series.

I stupidly thought the Rangers were in the AL Central.

It's interesting that as of right now, there are no games scheduled for Sunday April 5, which is Palm Sunday. I doubt that's a consideration though. Passover starts on April 8. Good Friday is April 10 and Easter is April 12 (it would also have been my grandmother's 105th birthday).

4
It's best not to wonder why. Just accept whomever is playing. Remember that teams can ask for opponents. And lots of NL teams ask for the Red Sox and Yankees. The Dodgers don't need to do that since they already draw well.

I'd really like to give those sabermetricians a piece of my mind.

(ducks under desk)

We got to run around center field, I got the autographs of about 20 Dodgers, and Duke Snider carried me around on his shoulders. I can still smell the grass!

I always thought that the World Series had to have the Dodgers and Yankees in it.

Since this is the last year of Yankee Stadium I had hoped they would make it this year.

My father got a brick from the Polo Grounds and Ebbets Field when they were torn down. Hopefully I will be able to add a brick from Yankee stadium.

I have a lot of great memories of family and friends however the memory of Center Field in Yankee Stadium is one of the best.

I am glad that I made my trip to Yankee Stadium and I saw Clemens win a game with Rivera closing it out.

another things I'll be looking forward in terms of baseball:

Matt Kemp
Clayton Kershaw
Chad Billingsley (20 game winner?)
Etanislao Abreu (where is he man)
James Loney
Russell Martin (20 dingers, 30% cought stealing)
________

basically, all the rooks...

No LaRoche, likely no Hu, who knows about Abreu, Meloan is gone, the outfield will remain perplexing (especially if an attempt to re-sign Manny does not include dealing away Pierre and/or Jones), and beyond Billingsley and Kershaw, the rotation is a mystery.

I guess that means I need to put my heart behind this year and hope they can figure it out for 2009, not the other way around!

spring training in Zona! (woo!)

My goal is to get in the L.A. Times Festival of Books, and then watch my kids spurn me for Mo Willems.

That's of course assuming that there's still an L.A. Times Festival of Books even though there is no more L.A. Times Book Review section.

"Dodgers '09: Quantum of Solace" ?

And I don't think Meloan and Abreu were ever going to be that important to the '09 Dodgers, imho.

Think of it this way: DeWitt, DeJesus, Hu, McDonald, Elbert (who has already had a nice taste of the bigs now), plus Kershaw (and of course the core of Billingsley + Broxton, Martin, Kemp, Ethier, Loney), plus a bit later Lambo... It's not like the cupboard will be empty next season. Not counting whoever they either re-sign or sign.

Which isn't to say there won't be worries, holes and issues...

http://www.latimes.com/extras/festivalofbooks/

The Dodgers are in Colorado that weekend, the only other thing going on at UCLA that time of year is Spring football practice and scrimmage.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-boron18-2008sep18,0,7096093.story

Just add the Dodgers wins to the DBacks losses and subtract from 163.

79 + 76 = 155
163 - 155 = 8

ben

However, don't expect them to fall flat in the postseason because of that. The Angels are also leading BP's "Secret Sauce" rankings, just barely ahead of the Red Sox. The Dodgers are ranked 16th.

Number of games remaining, plus 1, minus the lead in the loss column.

11 + 1 - 4 = 8

From Feb 1:
-----------------------
118. Jon Weisman
Chad Billingsley will go 17-9 with an ERA of 2.88. There, I said it. And we'll fall in love with him like a girl in a flowing white gown bounding across a springtime meadow
------------------------

http://tinyurl.com/693trg

I'm not saying this is any sort of unfair advantage for the Dodgers. Schedules are pretty fair within divisions. Just that record on any given date needs to be assessed with strength of schedule to that point in mind.

I'm sure most of us, including me, will forget that when the dog days roll around and the Dodgers are 3 back.

Don't like to be negative but wonder if Abreu will be on the roster by April 6, 2009. Given injury Boras and the way the Dodgers handled his injury, I tend to think he won't be in the mix. Hope I am wrong. Is 2009 his last year under Dodger control?

http://sportsblogs.latimes.com/sports_baseball_dodgers/

http://sportsblogs.latimes.com/sports_baseball_dodgers/

[162 - 76] + 1 - 79 = 8

But Bob's way is much less complicated.

I believe in 2005, the Cardinals clinched the NL Central about 3-4 days before they celebrated because Tony La Russa wouldn't celebrate until the second place team had enough losses.

If Billingsley didn't get the loss in that game (too lazy to look it up).... Never Mind.

http://tinyurl.com/4yhpbn

Heading into tonight:

VORP
Billingsley 51.1
Haren 51.1

ERA+
Billingsley 146
Haren 140

FIP
Haren 3.04
Billingsley 3.25

Close call so far.

:-/

Casey Blake playing 3rd base in 2009 would not bother me in the slightest. I like the Beard and his OBP should start to trend up, this is a bit low for him.

If he did, I don't have a big problem with it. Just curious.

(from the same Feb 1 thread)
120. Xeifrank
118. If that ERA is correct, then I will watch an episode of Lost or Desperate Housewives, whichever show ya'll are drueling over next October. vr, Xei

-----------------------

I found my Bills/Haren quote, but it's pretty vague and weak compared to the boldness of Jon's prediction:

111. Eric Stephen
I'm definitely on board with the sub-4.00 ERA for Billingsley. I have a feeling he will be better than Dan Haren this year.

I laughed when I read that.

Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Ramirez, LF
Blake, 3B
Garciaparra, 1B
Kemp, CF
Ozuna, 2B
Berroa, SS
Billingsley, P

if it happens I'll wow right along with you.

http://www.g4tv.com/lost/

I just think he'll get the Andy LaRoche treatment.

i'm not familiar with PECOTA (to be honest) but somebody brought that up & I felt it was pretty accurate.

PECOTA said something like a high 3 ERA from what I remember.

What will win out, Torre love for Cano, or Torre love for DeWitt.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/09/17/scoop.brewers/1.html

other than that I'm liking the DeWitt experiment at second so far.

I hope we get to Duke early so we can see Loney and DeWitt make some mid to late game appearances

96

Bill James, a baseball writer (and Boston Red Sox advisor) who has spent much of his life knocking down baseball myths, believes that Manny Ramirez is such a good, hitter, he will purposely get into full-counts when there is a runner on first base. The reason? With a full-count, that runner will be running on the pitch and, as such, will become an RBI when Ramirez hits a double into the gap.

"I've seen it too many times to doubt it," Bill says.

http://tinyurl.com/3mf5aq

Honeycutt!

And Torre is really going overboard with the whole lefty matchup thing. No reason why Loney should be sitting.

But, I do think, Manny does set up pitchers pitch by pitch and at bat by at bat. And he does that as well as anyone I have ever watched on a consistent basis.

Loney vs. LHP- .269/.322/.391
Nomar vs. LHP- .306/.397/.510

117 The Brewers might be in complete rebuilding mode next year. They might trade Fielder, they'll lose Sheets, and C.C., and Weeks is having such a bad year, and a pay raise that they might non tender him.(IMO). And Parra might be their best pitcher next year. Not the best combination to try to reach the playoffs next year. Might as well blow it up, and try to get talent for what they have.

Sometimes a team can appear to have a mathematical chance to win even though they have actually been eliminated already, due to scheduling. In this major league baseball scenario, there are three games remaining in the season. Teams A, B and C are assumed to be eligible only for the division championship; another team with a better record in another division has already clinched the one available "wild card" spot:

Team Wins Losses
A 97 62
B 97 62
C 95 64

If Team C were to win all three remaining games, it would finish at 98-64, and if both Teams A and B were to lose their three remaining games, they would finish at 97-65, which would make Team C the division winner. However if Teams A and B are playing against each other in the final weekend (in a 3 game series), one of them will win at least two games and thereby clinch the division title with a record of either 100-62 or 99-63. The more direct consequence of this situation is that it is also not possible for Teams A and B to finish in a tie with each other, and Team C can't win the division.

I'm drooling on my keyboard thinking about it.

Any thoughts on the Angels going after Manny?

Yu Darvish won't be posted this year. If I'm Darvish, I might as well play out my contract in Japan, and then sign huge money when I'm in my early 30's.

Or does Nomar play SS?

Sure things (21):

Martin
Ardoin
Loney
DeWitt
Berroa
Blake
Nomar
Manny
Kemp
Ethier
Pierre
*
Billingsley
Lowe
Kuroda
Kershaw
Broxton
Beimel
Wade
Park
Kuo (assuming his arm's attached)
Saito (ditto)

Which leaves you with four players to select from the following...

Possibles (13):
Hu
Furcal
Young
Ozuna
Sweeney
Repko
Maddux
Proctor
Elbert
Stults
Penny
Troncoso
Johnson

For me, the toughest choice is between Maddux and Elbert. You can't take both because you sure as heck don't need 12 pitchers on a playoff roster (actually, you probably don't even need 11). So anyway, the four guys I'd take are...

If Furcal's available: Young, Elbert, Furcal, Hu
If Furcal's unavailable: Young, Elbert, Hu, Repko

I'm sure the Dodgers wouldn't dare leave Maddux off a playoff roster. But I would. Sorry Greg.

If we face the Cubs I wouldn't bench Loney for Ted Lilly.

SportsNation John Manuel: King of apples and oranges, but I'll take the guy with the better bat, DeJesus. There have been Q's about Hu's bat for several years and he reinforced them in his big league promotion; I still like him but like DeJesus better.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=22463

Of course this is preaching to the choir but I would drop Sweeney, keep Young + another position player to be PH. Sweeney's worthless.

James Loney should not be benched for Angel Berroa no matter whom is pitching.

SportsNation John Manuel: Ha, nice . . . little lightning round. I am on the Lambo bandwagon, I got sold a bad bill of goods on him when he was an amateur, he just flat hits. He's gonna move quickly and he's gonna hit. I'm a bit less excited about McDonald just because it sounds like the fastball is fringe-average or average; I know Ben Badler here at BA is a believer, and athleticism plus a feel for pitching is a good combination as well. McDonald could be ready in '09 if needed; Lambo will need to wait until 2010 I'd guess.

You'd have to think Kent would be on the playoff roster.

James Loney vs.
Ted Lilly (3 PA): 0-for-3, .000 OPS
Cole Hamels (6 PA): 1-for-6, .500 OPS
Johan Santana (3 PA): 1-for-3, .666 OPS

He could be Joba lights out for a few innings during the postseason.

As someone said Kent probably comes back and makes the postseason. I'm also counting on Furcal making the postseason. The leaves room for D Young and Maddux.

It's so true. I've personally never seen anything like it until getting the chance to watch Manny every day. What other hitters in the league do that?

Manny - "Mr. Ultimo"
Super Mentor
Super Protector
Super Producer

Get yer dreds on!

Kershaw's pitch counts would be a better indicator.

Now that the division title is getting close, the Dodgers really ought to nut up and tell Torre that Kershaw's season is over. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he's at 157 IP on the year, up from 122 last year. That's enough for 2008.

Kershaw in for an inning or even one batter painting the corner down and in at 97 mph+ :)

Look, I don't really know if Baker overworked Prior in 03. And there's certainly a lot of evidence on all sides. And even if Prior was overworked, I don't know that you can point to that as the cause of his current troubles.

But why take the chance? I'd rather have Kershaw than Maddux, too, but not enough to risk Kershaw's career.

On another note, Kershaw would be pretty dominating out of the bullpen for the playoffs.

Also, as much as I hate to see it, there is nothing that makes me think that Torre will leave Sweeney off of any playoff roster. Face it everyone, he is here for the long haul.

And if the argument for starting Kershaw is that you have to risk a bit in the postseason becuase flags fly forever, well, I'm very sympathetic to that argument. I just hope we don't look back on the Dodgers' 2008 postseason with a mix of joy for what it brought and regret for what it took with it.

Any speculation on why Torre hasn't let James McDonald throw a single pitch after 16 days?

That would be a crime...

I said it when he came up, that James McDonald was probably the least likely of the promotions to get any playing time while the season was still in doubt.

And really, for the most part, outside of probably Scott Elbert, he hasn't played those guys in high leverage situations.