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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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Dodgers Decline Penny's Option
2008-11-05 13:29
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

The Dodgers have paid Brad Penny $2 million for the right to avoid paying him another $7 million. They have declined their contract option on Penny for the 2009 season, according to Tony Jackson of the Daily News.

The question remains how interested the Dodgers should be in signing Penny at a lesser price. In his Dodger career, Penny had a 4.07 ERA in 678 2/3 innings, striking out 6.1 batters while allowing less than one homer per nine innings. As recently as 2007, Penny posted an ERA of 3.03 and pitched in his second consecutive All-Star game. He is only 30 years old. His poor 2008 can largely be explained away by injury. But will Penny recover?

Here's the take of Dodger Thoughts commenter 68elcamino427:

The muscles in the back of his shoulder are shot. Velocity with no control. He had plenty of time off this season to see if time would heal.

Example - Grab onto a fixed object with your arm at the release point. Pull back with the tips of your fingers and feel the muscles that are flexing around the perimiter of the outside of your shoulder.

Isolate the index finger, middle finger, ring finger and thumb.

When a pitcher is throwing the ball at 92 mph, the 5.9 ounce ball has the equivalent weight of about 59 pounds because of the force that is being created by the speed of the hand attached to the ball. Pushing the ball and generating force is not the issue for Penny - he can still generate 94 mph. The issue is that he is unable to exert enough force with the muscles in the back of his shoulder to fine-tune his control around the edges of the strike zone.

This is why I feel the the $7 million "bargain" is more like lighting the money on fire by giving it to Penny.

Pretty persuasive stuff - although I don't know how sure we are that "the muscles in the back of his shoulder are shot." Penny's longest stretch between appearances last season was 54 days. That might not be enough time to consign Penny to the dustheap. It's hard for me to give up on a pitcher after one injury-plagued season, especially one who, despite a declining strikeout rate, had been effective more often than not.

There's a price that I would willingly pay for Penny's return. However, I suspect that price probably wouldn't be what Penny or his agent would expect, because I don't know how much better is Penny likely to be than a journeyman pitcher over the course of an entire season.

The Dodgers' current starting rotation is Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, James McDonald and, unless Hong-Chih Kuo or Scott Elbert come out of the bullpen or Jason Schmidt out of unlimber limbo, Eric Stults. Although I think the talent is there, and that Stults is underrated as a back-of-the-rotation candidate, the team needs more depth. Penny is an option that should be considered - one option of many.

Comments (256)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-11-05 14:01:34
1.   JoeyP
So the Dodgers current payroll is $70 mils?

If the team doesnt sign CC or Manny, what else is out there that would be worth getting the payroll back into the 110-120 range?

Or is this McCourt's plan--- drop salary?

2008-11-05 14:03:59
2.   Eric Enders
I can't help but feeling that this is an unwise move. Exercising the option would have been a big risk, but one that the Dodgers probably needed to take. Our pitching depth for 2009 appears to be such that, at midseason, we may find ourselves pining for the good old days of Esteban Loaiza.
2008-11-05 14:05:28
3.   silverwidow
Maybe Josh Lindblom is closer than we think.
2008-11-05 14:05:29
4.   trainwreck
1
We do not need to get the payroll up there. We just need to be smart.
2008-11-05 14:08:47
5.   nme
2- I'm right there with you. While I would not expect ace stuff out of BP, considering the price tag on starting pitching this off-season, I have to wonder how the $9M would not be a good risk.

Hopefully they know something that we don't. Otherwise we are relying on JMac to be ready to start, or face the offseason with 2 holes in our starting rotation. Not exactly a pleasant place to be, especially in a pitching thin market.

2008-11-05 14:09:08
6.   Harold M Johnson
It seems to me like it would be awesome to get CC, but it's highly unlikely, especially because the Dodgers already have a legit #1.

Ehat's needed is middle/back of the rotation guy(s). Who's available and who should the Dodgers target?

2008-11-05 14:09:52
7.   Eric Enders
5 Yes. And it's not even $9M, it's $7.2. The other $2 million was going to be spent either way.
2008-11-05 14:10:54
8.   scareduck
Is 68elcamino427 a kinesiologist or hold some other specialization in biomechanics? That's interesting speculation, but it doesn't strike me as especially compelling. Me, I want MRIs.
2008-11-05 14:12:10
9.   Eric Enders
6 I don't feel the need to pigeonhole starters into "ace" and "back of the rotation" slots months before the season starts. The fact that we have one ace doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't get another one. We certainly shouldn't make an effort to target crappy "back of the rotation" free agent pitchers.

As for the question, I like Ben Sheets.

2008-11-05 14:14:18
10.   Jon Weisman
7 - Hypothetically, if the Dodgers decided Penny was worth $7 million total for 2009, and sign him to a one-year, $5 million contract - do you think they'd be outbid? And if that were the highest bid, do you think Penny would turn it down, despite his spurned feelings?

Alternatively, are there not other pitchers as good as Penny who can fill Penny's spot for less than $7 million?

2008-11-05 14:16:32
11.   Jon Weisman
John Sickels on Little Ivan:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/5/654582/more-arizona-observations

"Ivan DeJesus, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Came into Arizona with a reputation for strong defense and a promising bat, but he has looked awful this fall. He has played very sloppy defensively, making frequent mistakes that he normally does not make, and scouts are now questioning his work ethic. He is too young for this to hurt his status badly right now, but he needs to get his head back on straight before spring training."

2008-11-05 14:16:44
12.   Dane Bramage
I say, let him go. Penny's seemed like a ticking bomb to me ever since his scary nerve injury back in 2004.
2008-11-05 14:17:08
13.   trainwreck
6
Oliver Perez, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wolf are less heralded options out there.
2008-11-05 14:23:11
14.   Ken Noe
This only makes sense if he really is damaged goods. On the other hand, it makes a run at CC and not Manny more likely, no?
2008-11-05 14:23:40
15.   TommyLasordid
My head says trust the Dodgers brass in knowing a whole lot more about Penny's health, physical and mental, than we do. My gut says why should I trust the same folks who thought Schmidt, Mueller, Pierre, Jones, etc., were great ideas. I hope to god they know what they are doing on this one and don't end up spending tens of millions on another Loaiza while Penny reverts to form with someone else.
2008-11-05 14:28:19
16.   Eric Enders
10 I think they would be outbid, yes, but if that were the highest bid I think Penny would accept it.

The problem with your question is that the $2M is now irrelevant. It's already been paid and can't be included anymore in the Dodgers' evaluation of how much Penny is worth on the market. If the Dodgers decided Penny was worth $7 million for 2009, then they would now have to pay him exactly that, because the $2M is already a sunk cost.

The answer to your second question is, probably not.

The main arguments people seem to be making to get rid of Penny are:
1) He might be hurt,
2) He stunk last year and I don't like him,
3) He quit on the team.

All three of those miss the point, which is that the decision needs to be made in light of the other options available. It's very, very unlikely that the Dodgers will be able to find elsewhere a potentially good starting pitcher for $7M for one year.

The decision to kick Penny to the curb virtually guarantees that we're going to have a 2009 with plenty of starts from the likes of Justin Orenduff and Jason Johnson-types. Because pitchers will inevitably get hurt, and there's no way Colletti's going to sign the three or four free-agent SPs that would be needed to provide adequate depth.

2008-11-05 14:31:40
17.   fanerman
In SoSG terms, I'm voting Yes on Proposition C.C.
2008-11-05 14:33:10
18.   Jon Weisman
16 - "If the Dodgers decided Penny was worth $7 million for 2009, then they would now have to pay him exactly that, because the $2M is already a sunk cost."

I'm saying that the Dodgers could have decided they were willing to invest only $7 million in Penny next year, inclusive of the $2 million. I know it's a sunk cost, but it's not irrelevant.

2008-11-05 14:34:19
19.   bigcpa
I don't see any scenario where Penny comes back. The guy was disgruntled in 2006 when he got moved to the pen and more disgruntled last year when his option wasn't picked up. He has to want out of here in the worst way.

I want one big ticket FA pitcher and let McDonald/Stults compete for the 5th slot. No more Tomkos. Although I still kinda like Randy Wolf.

2008-11-05 14:35:29
20.   D4P
The question remains how interested the Dodgers should be in signing Penny at a lesser price

Seems like a question is also whether Penny is willing to sign at a lesser price.

Pay cuts seem few and far between in the MLB, even for injured and/or under-performing players.

2008-11-05 14:37:33
21.   Eric Stephen
1
Current Dodger Roster and 2009 Payroll

Committed Salary (4)
OF Pierre $10m
OF Jones $17.1m
SP Kuroda $10m
SP Schmidt $16m
Total: $53.1m

Buyouts, Bonuses, Etc
Furcal $5m (last of deferred signing bonus)
Penny $2m
Bennett $50k
Total: $7.05m

Arbitration Assumptions (5)
C Martin $5m (Super 2)
RF Ethier $3m (Super 2)
CL Saito $5m (1st year)
RP Broxton $2m (1st year)
RP Proctor $2m (2nd year)
Total: $17m

Pre-Arb Assumptions (10)
1B Loney $450k (3rd year)
3B DeWitt $425k (1st year)
CF Kemp $450k (3rd year)
OF Young $425k (2nd year)
SP Billingsley $450k (3rd year)
SP Kershaw $425k (1st year)
RP Kuo $450k (3rd year)
RP Wade $425k (1st year)
RP Troncoso $400k (1st year)
RP Elbert $400k (1st year)
Total: $4.3m

That's roughly $81.45m, without a 2B, SS, SP, and some bench spots (not to mention a possible 3rd OF).

(Also, the years are service time years. Wade, for instance, didn't accumulate the 172 days needed for a full season)

2008-11-05 14:37:52
22.   D4P
BTW: Didn't Ned give $8-9 million/year to injured Randy Wolf? And $7 million/year to crappy Esteban Loaiza?
2008-11-05 14:37:59
23.   Jon Weisman
19 - I don't think either side really wants to be involved contractually with the other again, but money and need can make strange bedfellows.

20 - Penny is definitely gettting a paycut next year. There's no way he's getting $9.5 million.

2008-11-05 14:39:32
24.   Eric Stephen
I also forget the damn Nomar signing bonus: $1.25m due in each of January 2009 & 2010.

Bump up the 2009 total to $82.7m

2008-11-05 14:40:02
25.   fanerman
So what's the breakdown of starting pitchers in the organization that can pitch in the big leagues if need be?
2008-11-05 14:41:10
26.   JoeyP
A rotation of Bills/Kershaw/McDonald is enticing though.

I cant remember the last time the Dodgers had 3 farm grown young hurlers in the rotation all at the same time.

2008-11-05 14:42:28
27.   Eric Stephen
25
Assuming you mean 2009...

Bills
Kuroda
Kershaw
McDonald
Stults

With possible starting contributions from:

Elbert
Kuo

I defer to Canuck, Nate and others as to the readiness of Withrow, Ethan Martin, or any others I may have missed.

2008-11-05 14:43:31
28.   delias man
Would that same 9 mil or a little more get one year of Randy Johnson? I think that is a better gamble then Penny.
2008-11-05 14:44:54
29.   Eric Stephen
26
The 1996 club got 92 starts from Valdes, Astacio, and Ramon Martinez.
2008-11-05 14:45:18
30.   trainwreck
27
Those two guys were hurt and were already extremely far away to begin with.

They are mystical beasts too, but not Minotaur status. Like elves or gnomes.

2008-11-05 14:45:25
31.   Eric Enders
18 I think we'll have to agree to disagree then. Either that or I'm not quite understanding you.

The extra $2 million, once you committed (years ago) to pay it, is gone. It doesn't matter whether it went to Brad Penny or the San Diego Chicken or to pay for the season supply of Dodger Dogs. It's gone and there's nothing you can do about it. It's totally irrelevant to the evaluation of how much Penny is worth for 2009. That's a question which has to be addressed completely independently of what you've agreed to pay him in the past.

2008-11-05 14:45:38
32.   ToyCannon
25
James McDonald - for sure
Scott Elbert - probably by mid season
Josh Lindblom -possibly by mid season
Adkins - would have to greatly improve on his 2008 season
Jesus Castillo - maybe ready to eat some innings by mid season.
Victor Garate - expecting him to make the jump to the bullpen and not stay in the rotation.
2008-11-05 14:46:23
33.   kinbote
Committed Salary (4)
OF Pierre $10m
OF Jones $17.1m
SP Kuroda $10m
SP Schmidt $16m
Total: $53.1m

There's gotta be a rule against posting stuff this depressing.

2008-11-05 14:47:02
34.   Jon Weisman
31 - I think you're just not understanding me.
2008-11-05 14:47:45
35.   fanerman
33 1 of those players does not belong with the rest
2008-11-05 14:50:11
36.   taikwanboe
REgarding the Martin rumors, Colletti saying that he is not being shopped doesn't mean much to me. In fact, it almost worries me that it means that's exactly what he's doing. Ned has never been very open with the papers about what his plans are. I seem to remember reading several times last winter that he was not at all interested in Andruw Jones, even at a reduced number of years, and look how that turned out.
2008-11-05 14:50:15
37.   regfairfield
Unless every team knows that Penny is done, he'll get at least what he was owed this year. Every team needs pitching, and heck, even mediocrity gets 10 million a year now.
2008-11-05 14:50:38
38.   Eric Stephen
26
Actually almost all of the mid- to late 90s featured a slew of farm grown Dodger starters.
2008-11-05 14:50:47
39.   Jim Hitchcock
Wow. Michael Crichton, RIP.
2008-11-05 14:52:25
40.   Daniel Zappala
33 That is pretty wicked. Which is why I think the Dodgers declined on Penny in order to avoid adding to that list (though Kuroda has done well). My guess is that they are freeing up money to go shopping. If Sabathia or Manny costs $20 million per year, then saving the $7 million helps a lot for next year (after which Jones comes off the books).
2008-11-05 14:54:26
41.   Jon Weisman
36 - I don't recall Ned doing anything he flat-out said he wasn't going to do.

I don't recall any of these examples you're citing re: Jones, but I doubt at any point Ned said, "I am not signing Andruw Jones." I'm sure at some point he might have indicated he was dubious about the possibility of signing Jones, but that's not the same thing. It wasn't a situation in his control.

No doubt, Ned would trade Martin for Tim Lincecum straight up if asked, but there is truly no reason to think Ned is actively shopping Martin for the sake of getting rid of him.

2008-11-05 14:54:37
42.   Tripon
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/5/654318/best-right-fielders-of-200

In rating the RF's, Andre Ethier is 7th, but the real surprise for me is Randy Wynn at 5th.

2008-11-05 14:57:22
43.   CanuckDodger
16 -- I stated all three reasons you cite for cutting Penny loose yesterday (except the "I don't like him" part you added to the second reason, which I am pretty sure you added just to make people who don't want Penny back sound petty), and no, "I don't think I missed the point." You refer to "the other options available." I said yesterday that unless people who want Penny back expected Penny to take the spot of the starting pitcher Colletti said he wants to acquire this off-season, Penny would obviously take the slot of McDonald. Thus, McDonald is "the other option available" you speak of. Trusting the potentially broken down "proven veteran" (Penny) at many millions of dollars over the cheap but unproven prospect (McDonald) is the sort of thing we, in the past, have deplored with one voice at DT. Frankly I find it bizarre. It is almost as if the off-season after 2006 is being replayed and DT people are saying, "We want Nomar re-signed even though we have Loney." No, my friends, the Dodgers are finally getting it right. They are not letting the Nomar-over-Loney fiasco repeat itself in the pitching department.
2008-11-05 14:57:59
44.   Eric Enders
41 "I don't recall Ned doing anything he flat-out said he wasn't going to do."

I'm mostly with Jon on this point, but I do feel obliged to note that Ned never said he wasn't going to trade Martin. He said the report that he was looking to trade Martin was untrue. The two are not the same.

2008-11-05 14:58:40
45.   regfairfield
I want Penny over Stults, personally.
2008-11-05 15:00:55
46.   Harold M Johnson
Maybe the Dodgers can sign one of these dudes:

http://deadspin.com/5077435/rinku-and-dinesh-go-to-white-castle-the-majors

2008-11-05 15:02:01
47.   Jon Weisman
44 - Right, I agree with that.
2008-11-05 15:05:02
48.   ToyCannon
43
5 starters for 5 spots does not sound like something I'd hang my hat on. I'd be much more comfortable with 5 starters and McDonald ready to jump in when one of them goes down. Based on your post McDonald is number five and 4 is someone he acquires. Our rotational depth blows, this does not sound like a good plan to me.
2008-11-05 15:05:18
49.   Eric Stephen
43
Almost no team gets 150+ starts from only 5 guys. Even if Penny were to come back, I'm sure McDonald would get his shot through injuries to others that are seemingly inevitable.

The "other options" aren't just McDonald. Assuming a frontline starter is signed, we still only have 6 starters including Stults. The depth just isn't there. And finding pitchers reliably better than Stults or Penny will cost more than $7.25m*.

*If the Dodgers know Penny is hurt beyond something offseason rest will cure, I have no problem with the option buyout.

2008-11-05 15:07:17
50.   CanuckDodger
45 -- And Stults is only in the picture as long as we don't sign or trade for another starter, which is inconceivable. But if the "inconceivable" happened, I still take Stults over Penny going into next year.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-11-05 15:07:21
51.   underdog
I'm with Canuck on this one, while I once thought picking up Penny's option was a no-brainer I now think not picking it up is the no-brainer. It's possible his shoulder isn't shot, but it sure looked shot to me late in the season. He's certainly a ways away from contributing, and I don't see his velocity coming back for some time, which is a big part of his arsenal. So while he could pick it back up eventually, the odds are he won't soon enough, and we already had another case like that in Jason Schmidt (and from what I've been hearing medically even he is closer to coming back effectively than Penny). What's more, I don't think they liked his attitude last season and I can't blame them. He kept hiding his injuries, then rushed it back, then groused at the team and then left them. I just feel like if you know for sure something is going to be a sunk cost, which I'm assuming is the Dodgers' attitude right now, why sink it?

Especially if it means they waste their time trying to force him into the rotation early next season instead of giving McDonald a shot, if that's what it came down to.

Basically, I'm done with Brad Penny and I'm glad the Dodgers are, too.

/underdog opinionated ramble, OFF

2008-11-05 15:07:45
52.   Eric Enders
43 Your post relies on the premise that there are five, and only five, jobs available for starting pitchers. This is a false and very risky assumption. In fact, the Dodgers left Spring Training 2008 with seven viable rotation options (Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, Loaiza, Kuo) and they STILL ended up having to use guys like Stults and Jason Johnson during the year, not to mention being forced to trade some perfectly good prospects for Maddux.

Pitchers get hurt. This is not something that might happen. It's something that will happen, guaranteed, and the team that's unprepared for it is a team that's going to do poorly.

Keeping Penny would in no way have suppressed an opportunity for McDonald.

2008-11-05 15:08:10
53.   Jon Weisman
Yeah, as the Dodgers stack up right now, McDonald's the No. 4, and Stults is the No. 5 unless Schmidt/Kuo/Elbert gets in there (unlikely).

Until the Dodgers sign another pitcher, Stults is the Loney in your analogy.

2008-11-05 15:09:58
54.   D4P
If the Dodgers know Penny is hurt beyond something offseason rest will cure

I'm not counting on the Dodgers knowing one way or the other. Reliable medical reports are (apparently) hard to come by these days (which isn't to imply that the medical staff is underpaid...)

2008-11-05 15:11:35
55.   Eric Enders
52 I omitted Park. I should have said that the Dodgers left spring training with EIGHT viable SP options, and nonetheless still ended up having to make an emergency trade for a SP.
2008-11-05 15:12:27
56.   ToyCannon
At 7.5 Million he should have been tradeble. When he signs a contract we shall see if that is true.
2008-11-05 15:14:18
57.   CanuckDodger
48-49 -- The idea that teams can go into a season with 7 or 8 MLB starting pitchers is fanciful. Your "depth" has to be at Triple A, and I am stunned that people here seem to want McDonald to be part of the Triple A depth equation next year. Stults will be Triple A depth next year. Probably also Scott Elbert, Jesus Castillo, and Justin Orenduff. And no doubt two or three minor league contract NRI guys like Jason Johnson. That is what every team in baseball has for starting pitching depth.
2008-11-05 15:16:34
58.   Eric Enders
57 "The idea that teams can go into a season with 7 or 8 MLB starting pitchers is fanciful. Your "depth" has to be at Triple A."

It's not fanciful. It's something the Dodgers have done almost every year since I've been following them. In 2007 and 2008 they went eight deep in starting pitchers at the start of each season. And no, they don't have to be at AAA. There's this thing called a bullpen....

2008-11-05 15:19:06
59.   Jon Weisman
Who's more likely to be better in the short-term (2009) and the long-term (2010-12)? Penny or Lowe?
2008-11-05 15:21:13
60.   Eric Enders
Short term, Lowe, obviously. Long term, well, maybe Lowe too, but that one's a bit harder to call.
2008-11-05 15:22:30
61.   silverwidow
21 I believe Furcal is owed $4M in January, not $5M.
2008-11-05 15:23:08
62.   ToyCannon
59
Lowe

I don't really like Penny but I thought we could trade him.

2008-11-05 15:24:03
63.   CanuckDodger
58 -- You are counting Kuo as a starter, which I am not. Park is the only one I grant you. I would be fine having Stults start the season in the bullpen as long-man/swing man. Waiting in Triple A will still be Elbert/Castillo/Orenduff and the 2009 versions of Johnson and (probably) Park, who was no doubt signed last year to be AAA depth and ended up earning a big league job right out of spring training.
2008-11-05 15:24:47
64.   silverwidow
CC is by far my #1 choice. But my second pick is Burnett, who doesn't get much talk here. His K rates are tremendous.
2008-11-05 15:24:47
65.   Tripon
Tim Brown thinks the Padres are going to ask the moon from the Dodgers.

The American League teams are fresh to the list, broadening what had been a National League-only field. San Diego Padres GM Kevin Towers is asking for young pitching and lots of it, particularly from the Dodgers, with whom they share the NL West. So, assume Towers is going for two or three pitchers from a pool including Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and James McDonald, or two of them and a young position player such as Matt Kemp.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AiAixyeYqdS_1wyHWyUFBWgRvLYF?slug=ti-gmnotebook110308&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

2008-11-05 15:25:52
66.   Jon Weisman
62 - Yeah, I wonder what the trade prospects would have been.
2008-11-05 15:25:55
67.   scareduck
55 - I don't buy that the Dodgers' trade for Maddux was forced on them at all. They simply refused to use the options they had (Stults).
2008-11-05 15:26:17
68.   scareduck
65 - why shouldn't they?
2008-11-05 15:26:24
69.   ToyCannon
57
Since McDonald will be on an inning count next season where do you want him to start the season? If he is in the rotation at the beginning of the year and stays healthy while pitching well he will be hitting his ceiling come Sept. Isn't he the guy you want to start out in the bullpen next season?
2008-11-05 15:26:42
70.   Tripon
While Penny was due only $9.25 million in 2009 and twice won 16 games for the Dodgers, most recently in 2007, the player and the team were at odds late in the season over the club's refusal to negotiate an extension. Penny started 17 games last season and missed significant time because of a sore shoulder. Late-season tests showed no structural damage in the shoulder.

Wow, so Penny wanted an extension with the option picked up?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AlecUDT4HxsQ5EYM8xjb0gQRvLYF?slug=ti-penny110508&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

2008-11-05 15:27:24
71.   trainwreck
64
Because he always gets hurt. Same with Sheets. They are good, but they are going to get paid a lot for guys with bad health histories.
2008-11-05 15:28:43
72.   Tripon
68 Because if the Dodgers matched up the best with them, the Padres should make realistic trade demands?

You shouldn't allow the best offer to not surface because you're making unrealistic demands. Asking for Billingsley, and Kershaw and Kemp in the same package is well, greedy. Might as well ask for Martin in the same package too just to complete the grab bag.

2008-11-05 15:29:52
73.   Eric Enders
67 Yeah, I agree. I should have said they felt forced to trade for Maddux. I agree that it wasn't necessary, and took place only because of an institutional mistrust of young players (in this case, McDonald).

Which is, incidentally, an indicator that guys like Elbert and Castillo probably qualify as 2009 SP depth only in our minds, and not in Colletti's.

2008-11-05 15:31:41
74.   Eric Enders
71 Look up Sheets's record. His awesomeness more than makes up for his time missed due to injury (which has been overstated to an unbelievable degree).
2008-11-05 15:32:26
75.   bhsportsguy
A quick check found 2 teams with 5 starters who combined for 153 starts, Chicago White Soz and Tampa Bay Rays. Chicago did it with 4 pitchers with 33 or more starts and 1 starter with 20 starts while the Rays had 4 pitchers with 30 or more starts and 1 with 27. The Angels fell just short (149 starts) with 4 starters with 30 or more and Lackey had 24 since he missed April.
2008-11-05 15:32:43
76.   NWdodger
What is Penny likely to make if the Dodgers offer him arbitration?
2008-11-05 15:32:52
77.   ToyCannon
Canuck any trade scenario that brings in a veteran pitcher to replace Penny surely would result in McDonald going the other way.

That leaves free agency as the only viable option for filling Penny's spot. Now I'm already on record that I'd do a jig of epic proportions if CC was pitching in Chavez Ravine but after that it dwindles fast. To me he would need to bring in one of Burnett, Perez, Lowe, or Sheets to help the rotation. Perez and Lowe are overpriced and Sheets is well Sheets. I don't see any of them coming our way.

2008-11-05 15:34:23
78.   bhsportsguy
75 I should be more careful, Chicago White Soz, since yesterday they got a very powerful fan.
2008-11-05 15:35:21
79.   Tripon
76 7-8 million. Which would be more than what he would have made if the Dodgers picked up the option.
2008-11-05 15:35:25
80.   Jon Weisman
65 - Add to the list of things I can't see happening: The Dodgers getting Peavy in trade.
2008-11-05 15:35:58
81.   bhsportsguy
76 I think the Michael Barrett gambit showed teams last year that offering arbitration to players coming off injuries is not always going to work out for you.
2008-11-05 15:36:08
82.   Bob Timmermann
78
Someone more powerful than Scott Long?
2008-11-05 15:36:22
83.   ToyCannon
74
Sheets has always been on the top of my list but I don't see any chance that Ned can take a chance on his or Burnett's health histories after the missteps of his previous contracts.

If Frank is wary of Furcal who they love he will be even more wary of those two even if they have never missed big parts of a season but lots of little ones.

That said I would not complain if he proved me wrong and brought in either one but I'd be happier with Sheets.

2008-11-05 15:36:58
84.   Eric Stephen
61
You are of course right. I don't have my Excel sheet with me, and I was using Cot's for a quick reference, and overlooked that detail.
2008-11-05 15:37:29
85.   trainwreck
74
Last year he got back on track, but then he got injured right at the end again and there was a considerable drop in his velocity. I guess I would just be very thorough with evaluating him.
2008-11-05 15:40:14
86.   ToyCannon
Of course Pedro is still a possibility for the back of the rotation.
2008-11-05 15:41:01
87.   Tangled Up in Blue
Put me in the camp that believes the Dodgers should have picked up Penny's option. No one here knows whether or not Penny is healthy or not but from what I am reading in 70 it appears that they are letting Penny walk because of conflict not because they think he is hurt. He is worth $7MM in my opinion.

We all better pray that he doesnt end up in the NL West next year.

People seem to be fired up on McDonald, and count me as one of them, but knowing Colletti and Torre he will be back in the minors as soon as he hits a rough patch next year.

2008-11-05 15:41:31
88.   Eric Stephen
82
Finally a comeback zinger for the music comment!
2008-11-05 15:42:39
89.   ToyCannon
Obama already having an effect.
http://tinyurl.com/ctr9s
2008-11-05 15:42:58
90.   trainwreck
Let's sign Wolf on a short deal to be insurance again.
2008-11-05 15:43:10
91.   ToyCannon
Related to baseball. No rule 5.
2008-11-05 15:43:47
92.   ToyCannon
Wolf gets rich this fall not that he was hurting before.
2008-11-05 15:44:17
93.   Bob Timmermann
90
We can't get Wolf for insurance twice! That's double indemnity!
2008-11-05 15:44:48
94.   bhsportsguy
The last time the Dodgers had 5 starters with 150+ startes (152) was in 1996. Hideo Nomo, Ismael Valdez, Pedro Astacio, Tom Candiotti and Ramon Martinez were those five pitchers, Chan Ho Park had the other 10 starts.
2008-11-05 15:45:06
95.   delias man
87 I hope Penny is in the NL West. I have the scouting report all ready for them. Fastball up, fastball up, fastball up....
2008-11-05 15:45:49
96.   Eric Enders
"Insurance coverage extends well beyond simply providing protection for what is important to you."

http://www.wolfinsurance.com/

2008-11-05 15:47:42
97.   Eric Enders
Admittedly, having a younger rotation somewhat mitigates the need for depth. Young pitchers will suffer the spectacular injuries, but not the nagging ones.
2008-11-05 15:48:37
98.   scareduck
77 - Canuck any trade scenario that brings in a veteran pitcher to replace Penny surely would result in McDonald going the other way.

He can hit, too?

2008-11-05 15:50:30
99.   trainwreck
98
Actually, he probably can.
2008-11-05 15:51:16
100.   Tripon
97 Admittedly, having a younger rotation somewhat mitigates the need for depth. Young pitchers will suffer the spectacular injuries, but not the nagging ones.

So which Dodgers pitcher is going to be shot out of a cannon? Kuroda?

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-11-05 15:52:45
101.   Tripon
99 98 Not according to McDonald's minor league numbers. They're pretty poor.

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=9349

2008-11-05 15:53:49
102.   underdog
93 What if we signed Fred MacMurray?
2008-11-05 15:54:56
103.   Jim Hitchcock
78 I think he said he was more of a Cub's fan, because the crowds were more into the game.
2008-11-05 15:55:02
104.   Jon Weisman
The world still awaits Loney pitching to McDonald with a (simulated) game on the line.
2008-11-05 15:55:27
105.   trainwreck
I think this has been talked about here before, but is Furcal at third and Hu/Dejesus at short the best option out there?

I am one, that prefers DeWitt at second.

2008-11-05 15:56:06
106.   trainwreck
103
Naw, he has been adamant that he is a White Sox fan.
2008-11-05 15:56:17
107.   Tripon
103 No, Obama said that White Sox baseball was real baseball because people go to Cubs games for the experience of Wrigley field, not to watch the Cubs.
2008-11-05 16:05:21
108.   bigcpa
If Wolf could have just held on for another 2 months in 2007 his $9M option would have likely been picked up and Loaiza would not have been claimed. Of course the net effect of all that would have been to prevent Kershaw from getting 20 starts this year.
2008-11-05 16:07:55
109.   Tripon
Sean (NYC): is it time to panic as Austin Jackson keeps struggling? (2K's and no hits last night)

SportsNation Jim Callis: No! Regulars to these chats know my mantra about not worrying about fall/winter stats too much. Jackson is going to be a solid big league regular for the Yankees

Posting this because of the bit about DeJesus up the page. If it is true that DeJesus is lagging in the AFL, I'd chalk it up more to playing in a long season than any mental makeup the guy has.

2008-11-05 16:09:11
110.   regfairfield
108 All told, I'm not sure if that's a bad thing.
2008-11-05 16:12:23
111.   Tripon
Tony (Watertown, SD): Who's a better pitcher this season: Kershaw or Billingsley? 3 years from now?

SportsNation Jim Callis: Billingsley in 2009, Kershaw in 2011.

2008-11-05 16:15:08
112.   Tripon
Jorge (Mira Loma CA): Should Matt Kemp be traded?

SportsNation Jim Callis: I'd hold onto him if I were running the Dodgers.

2008-11-05 16:19:48
113.   Tripon
No matter how little money the Padres have, it appears they have enough for Brian Giles. Padres president Sandy Alderson suggested they're likely to exercise the $9 million option on Giles' contract for 2009 rather than buy him out for $3 million by Friday's deadline. "I think it would be unlikely there will be a surprise," Alderson said regarding the Giles situation. Giles will have 10-and-5 veto rights over trades, making a deal unlikely.

Didn't Giles have a no trade clause anyway?

2008-11-05 16:20:02
114.   Tripon
http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove
2008-11-05 16:24:54
115.   68elcamino427
Never expected to be referred to in one of Jon's posts. It's quite a humbling experience.

The Dodgers medical staff should have an intimate knowledge regarding Penny's fitness and ability to perform.

By declining Penny's option are the Dodgers in effect saying that Penny is not worthy of the risk that they assumed when they acquired Loaiza? (another $7 mil. per year contract)

2008-11-05 16:29:25
116.   silverwidow
Tony Jackson said we made Manny the biggest offer in the history of the franchise.
2008-11-05 16:29:39
117.   trainwreck
Dodgers make offer to Manny, largest in history of franchise.

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/

2008-11-05 16:29:53
118.   trainwreck
D'oh!
2008-11-05 16:30:48
119.   arborial
101 .208 for a pitcher doesn't seem that bad to me, plus he's got triple power!
2008-11-05 16:31:47
120.   silverwidow
A bigger contract than Kevin Brown???
2008-11-05 16:32:03
121.   CanuckDodger
77 -- Which is why I don't see the Dodgers bringing in a pitcher by trade (I just threw that out there as a theoretical option, not a good or even realistic option). I place the odds of the Dodgers signing a free agent starting pitcher at 100%.
2008-11-05 16:33:08
122.   trainwreck
120
I assume they mean annual salary.
2008-11-05 16:33:20
123.   silverwidow
I'm guessing we offered 4/110
2008-11-05 16:34:00
124.   Tripon
119 McDonald was playing the outfield most of the time in 2004-2006 to save his pitching arm.
2008-11-05 16:35:43
125.   Tripon
Tony Jackson's said it is average salary.

My guess is 3 years/$80 million.

2008-11-05 16:38:29
126.   silverwidow
Oops, missed that very important part.
2008-11-05 16:38:31
127.   ToyCannon
117
Sounds like we more then kicked the tires. They wouldn't have bothered if it wasn't at least three years. I hope Ned stays right there. If someone gives him four then let it go. My worry is that if Manny ends up "having" to sign with us, that 1 1/2 years into the deal he will want an extension, and how will he handle himself if we say no.
2008-11-05 16:39:23
128.   fanerman
TJax is saying biggest contract ever on a per year basis.
2008-11-05 16:39:50
129.   ToyCannon
121
I think you like Oliver Perez. I've heard 12 Million being the minimum for him. Do you like him that much or am I thinking of someone else. If so who are you hoping they target?
2008-11-05 16:40:14
130.   Indiana Jon
124 That's what Vin kept saying at the end of the season, but is there any truth to it? Does that ever happen that a young pitcher is used as an OF for two years just to save his arm? Doesn't sound right to me.
2008-11-05 16:40:48
131.   ToyCannon
123
If we did, I think he'd be crazy not to accept it.
2008-11-05 16:41:52
132.   arborial
124 but if he is a pitcher now, shouldn't his hitting be based on pitching standards regardless of what position he was playing at the time? It's not like he is magically going to get better or worse at hitting now that he is a pitcher right? As I type that I realize that his hitting might regress a little due to an increased focused on pitching, but still I would expect it to stay about the same.
2008-11-05 16:42:22
133.   Tripon
127 I'd offer a fourth year, at around $20-22 million, and make it a player's option and consider it an bonus. So it'll be Manny's decision to pick it up. Maybe he'll think he's worth even more at age 39 and try to get another multi year deal and opt out. Problem solved!
2008-11-05 16:43:58
134.   Eric Enders
I'm pretty sure the biggest known offer in franchise history (in terms of yearly average salary) was $16M to Andruw. Schmidt was $15.7M and Brown was $15M. I guess we don't know what Vlad was offered in 2003.
2008-11-05 16:44:10
135.   regfairfield
McDonald was converted to a pitcher since he failed as a hitter.
2008-11-05 16:44:20
136.   CajunDodger
127

Is there anyone in the market other than the Yankees that would even consider paying Manny the amount of money we are considering? Going down the list of $100M payrolls, the only competition that I can think of are the Giants or the Mets and they have MUCH bigger issues to solve...

I think this might be the best that he can get...

2008-11-05 16:45:06
137.   Tripon
130 Could be that the Dodgers wanted to ultimately use McDonald as a pitcher, but thought a sudden switch to pitcher would doom McDonald's development. Perhaps they learned from the Edwin Jackson experiment who was switched at an early age from the outfield to a pitcher and rushed to the majors years before he was ready. The Dodgers are certainly taking their time with McDonald.
2008-11-05 16:45:59
138.   CajunDodger
134
I thought Andruw was 18.1M
2008-11-05 16:46:43
139.   silverwidow
138 True
2008-11-05 16:47:16
140.   trainwreck
136
Orioles maybe.
2008-11-05 16:48:33
141.   fanerman
Mac-Do hasn't had more than 100 AB's since 2004 and more than 80 since 2005.
2008-11-05 16:48:36
142.   arborial
Somehow I don't see Manny as an Oriole
2008-11-05 16:48:44
143.   regfairfield
Omar Minaya is in job saving mode so I can see him massively backloading some contracts.
2008-11-05 16:48:54
144.   Eric Enders
138 Yeah, typo on my part.

Basically, any remotely reasonable offer to Manny would have to have broken the franchise record offer. McCourt's proclamation makes it seem like he's setting up the fans for a non-signing of Manny by trying to make it appear he made a good-faith effort.

2008-11-05 16:50:06
145.   trainwreck
Will Mets have enough money to sign Manny?

They are reportedly targeting Lowe and either Fuentes or K-Rod.

2008-11-05 16:50:19
146.   Tripon
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8761502/L.A.-offers-Manny-2nd-highest-salary-ever-in-MLB

Rosenthal is reporting what Tony Jackson is reporting.

2008-11-05 16:51:01
147.   Tripon
143 The Mets would fire Miyaya after signing him to a 4 year extension?
2008-11-05 16:51:46
148.   Jon Weisman
Maybe the Dodgers offered Manny a three-month/$15 million contract. You can't beat that for average annual value.
2008-11-05 16:52:19
149.   68elcamino427
146
Is A-Rod's contract currently the highest?
2008-11-05 16:53:11
150.   regfairfield
147 Yeah, if he misses the playoffs three years in a row with probably the best core in baseball.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2008-11-05 16:55:06
151.   CajunDodger
140
Minaya just came gave a comment to the Daily News that pitching and not Manny was his priority (as well it should be...).

If we do get Manny for something like $27 mil per year, I wonder what that leaves money for. If McCourt is fiscally smart, he will invest in players this year while the FA crop is deep. I hope that he takes a 2-3 year budget approach rather than putting a hard cap on salary this year.

2008-11-05 16:56:54
152.   Eric Enders
149 According to Rosenthal, A-Rod has the two highest average contracts ever, at $27.5 and $25.2 million respectively.

He's forgetting about Clemens' pro-rated five-month contract with the Yankees in 2007 which called for a yearly salary of $28,000,000.

2008-11-05 16:58:52
153.   CajunDodger
152
Rosenthal...neglecting/ignoring history in a column?...oh the shock.
2008-11-05 16:59:15
154.   Tripon
Looking at the bright side. Even if Manny accepts, and declines in year 3 or 4. It still wouldn't be as bad of a contract the Raiders signed DeAngelo Hall for.
2008-11-05 17:00:22
155.   Jim Hitchcock
106 , 107 Oh, okay...thanks for refreshing my spotty memory :)
2008-11-05 17:00:29
156.   Zak
I think this is the token offer than the Dodgers were going to make (3/75 (?)). They know Manny won't take it.. at least not right away. They're thinking in their mind that an AL team will give him at least five years and they don't want to do that... rightfully so. So, get the big offer out of the way, let go of Penny and load up for a humongous offer for CC.

I really think that CC is coming to LA. The Dodgers will make him the 2nd best offer he will receive and he won't want to go to the Yankees. The Penny opt-out, in my mind, is really done with CC in mind. I don't see the Dodgers letting go of Penny if they at least did not intend to make a serious go at Sabathia. I bet he comes.

I also think there is a better chance that Kent plays in LA again than jake peavy. And I'm pretty sure that Kent is not coming back.. at least to LA. As for as Manny, there is a small chance that no team will give him anything better than 4/90, and he will come to LA in January/February after we've signed CC and re-ask for something like 3/75 with a mutual option for 22 mill for the 4th year and a player option for the 5th year for 20 mill. And Ned and Frank might go for that too. But, I don't think Manny is coming back to be honest... gas has gone down too much.

2008-11-05 17:02:38
157.   68elcamino427
152
Thanks
2008-11-05 17:03:06
158.   Harold M Johnson
156 Interesting, but I want to know which AL teams can afford Manny? Toronto, NYY and LAA come to mind... but are they willing to give 5 years?
2008-11-05 17:03:47
159.   CajunDodger
154
Ahhh, the joy of NFL non-guaranteed contracts. I read today that they were only on the hook for $9 million of the possible $70 million that he could have made through roster bonuses and backloaded money. His contract was only as bad as Loaiza's.
2008-11-05 17:04:04
160.   CanuckDodger
129 -- You must be confusing me with someone else when it comes to Oliver Perez, but sure, he is someone we could very well get. I would prefer Sabathia, or, if he passes a medical, Ben Sheets. Sheets is the pitcher scouts always compared Billingsley to when Chad was in the minors. Also, Tommy Lasorda loves Sheets from when Lasorda managed Team USA and won a gold Medal in the 2000 Olympics (Sheets' was the team's star pitcher).
2008-11-05 17:04:47
161.   Tripon
The Dodgers have offered Manny Ramirez a multi-year contract that could pay the slugger the second-highest annual salary ever. General Manager Colletti cited the lesser of Alex Rodriguez's 10-year deals and also Johan Santana's as being the second, so that means the offer is between $23 million and $25.2 million per season. He indicated it was a shorter deal for more money, so the total of the deal is likely either $50 million for two years or $75 million for three years. - via Diamond, and the P-E.
2008-11-05 17:05:18
162.   CajunDodger
158
I think that the dark horse is the Angels. If they miss on Teixeira, I think they will make a trade for pitching and at least entertain an offer for Manny.
2008-11-05 17:06:12
163.   Tripon
160

So you're saying that Lasorda ruined Sheets' arm?

2008-11-05 17:10:11
164.   trainwreck
162
Their outfield would be ridiculously expensive.
2008-11-05 17:15:56
165.   ToyCannon
160
Cool, I like it better when we agree only because I know I'm probably on the wrong side when we do disagree. CC and Sheets are 1 and 2 on my list.

156
I hope you are right. I know we will miss Manny's offense but we saw the best he will ever be. I just can't see us actually outbidding the beasts from the East on the best FA player in the market unless CC is determined to play in the NL in Los Angeles.

2008-11-05 17:19:05
166.   CanuckDodger
160 -- About Lasorda and Sheets, I forgot to mention that Lasorda travelled to Louisiana to attend Sheets' wedding after the 2000 Olympics. So Lasorda likes Sheets and it is not inconceivable that he has put in a good word for the guy with McCourt and Colletti.
2008-11-05 17:22:32
167.   Zak
158 Detroit and Texas, maybe? A five year contract for Manny is not a horrible gamble for an AL team given that he can play DH and will probably still be a good hitter 4 years from now. Also, if the Angels do end up signing Tex, I think it's almost guaranteed that the Yankees will go after Manny hard.
2008-11-05 17:23:42
168.   Zak
158 I do agree though that NYY, LAA and Tor would be the front running AL clubs, with Tex and Det behind them.
2008-11-05 17:23:52
169.   Tripon
DANA POINT, Calif. — Dodgers' general manager Ned Coletti said at the General Managers Meeting that his organization would "probably not" be interested in pursuing free agent catcher Jason Varitek. LA has, however, made an offer to Manny Ramirez which would allow for the highest annual average salary in Dodgers' history, and the second-highest in Major League Baseball history.

And thus the Boston fueled rumors that people from Boston started to help the Red Sox is ended by a Boston radio station.

http://blogs.weei.com/alexspeier/2008/11/05/dodgers-probably-not-interested-in-varitek/

2008-11-05 17:24:38
170.   trainwreck
169
Thank the Hot Stove Gods!!!
2008-11-05 17:25:28
171.   fanerman
169 Good news, even if it's just a rumor. Thanks!
2008-11-05 17:26:03
172.   Zak
Is Manny the best position player the Dodgers have ever had? I don't mean numbers as a Dodger, but as far as any great players who have played for the Dodgers, when we look back in a few years at a list of all time greats, would Manny be the highest in the list of players who played for the Dodgers? Maybe Rickey?
2008-11-05 17:26:04
173.   Eric Enders
Hopefully he said "probably not" instead of "absolutely not" just to be polite.
2008-11-05 17:26:17
174.   68elcamino427
161
Are the Dodgers setting the tone for Boras?
Would a five or six year deal need to be at least $24 mil per year now to be acceptable?
Will Boras get a team to bid against itself as he did with the Dodgers for Kevin Brown?

Boras - a master of manipulation.

2008-11-05 17:29:22
175.   CajunDodger
167
Detroit is already on record as keeping payroll at current levels, and hitting is not in their plans unless they can lose Sheff or Magglio Ordonez. I think Fuentes or K-Rod for them. Texas is a possibility, but pitching is again their issue (why they traded Young and Volquez I'll never know).

I think what we will see is Boras trying to get the Yankees involved along with maybe the Giants, and ultimately Ned will add a year to the offer or move on to Sabbathia.

2008-11-05 17:30:22
176.   68elcamino427
172
I think that it was mentioned in an earlier post here that Manny's performance in games as a Dodger rank in the "all-time" category for MLB.
2008-11-05 17:30:50
177.   Tripon
174 Problem is I don't see any team matching the amount of money the Dodgers are offering.

I can see the Mets offering 4 years/$75 million, or so. But they have other needs.

I can see the Yankees offering 2 years too. But they rather be in the Texieria and the C.C. sweepstakes.

2008-11-05 17:33:13
178.   Eric Enders
172 He's up there. I'd say the list probably goes something like Frank Robinson, Rickey, Manny, Koufax, Piazza, Snider, Jackie. You could rearrange the top three in any order and not get too many arguments.
2008-11-05 17:34:54
179.   Bob Timmermann
178
Eric's list is deficient since it includes neither Tripp Cromer nor Chris Gwynn.
2008-11-05 17:36:10
180.   CajunDodger
179
Let's please not forget about Jason Phillips...
2008-11-05 17:36:12
181.   trainwreck
178
I am worried that Texas is facing UCLA at the right time of year. Early in the season and UCLA will still be trying to figure things out. Especially, teaching the freshmen posts to play defense.
2008-11-05 17:37:28
182.   Bob Timmermann
180
Jason Phillips is sui generis.
2008-11-05 17:41:14
183.   Eric Enders
Bill James, whose list is about 7 years out of date, ranks them like this.

24. Frank Robinson
26. Rickey Henderson
32. Jackie Robinson
39. Arky Vaughan
50. Duke Snider
51. Sandy Koufax
53. Roy Campanella
61. Eddie Murray
(74. Roberto Clemente)
79. Mike Piazza
84. Paul Waner
92. Greg Maddux

Obvious omissions who would certainly be on the list now are Manny and Pedro Martinez.

2008-11-05 17:44:13
184.   Eric Enders
181 Texas will have a freshman point guard, Dogus Balbay, who's sort of a question mark at this point. The other four starters (James, Atchley, Abrams, Mason) are all very experienced and very good.

UCLA has more talent, but you may be right about the time of year. Hopefully Texas will at least keep it competitive.

2008-11-05 17:45:59
185.   Zak
183 Would Pedro be higher than Maddux and Piazza? I can't imagine him higher than Koufax.
2008-11-05 17:46:07
186.   Eric Enders
I bungled the opportunity to use some cool diacritical marks in that last post. It's actually Doğuş!
2008-11-05 17:46:59
187.   Eric Enders
185 Well, he was a lot better than Koufax. Head and shoulders above him, really. So yeah.
2008-11-05 17:48:35
188.   ToyCannon
Nice list. Those Robinson boys could play the game. To bad that with Frank, Rickey, Eddie and Greg we only got the fumes.

As far as guys who gave us their primes I only saw Piazza play and that memory will last my lifetime.

2008-11-05 17:51:28
189.   Eric Enders
Fortunately, Rickey was the only one who was truly at the end. Even Maddux had a huge positive contribution in 2006. Frank Robinson had a good, not great, year. Eddie Murray led MLB in hitting while he was with us.

It's not like those guys were Juan Marichal or Hoyt Wilhelm.

2008-11-05 17:51:47
190.   ToyCannon
187
The problem I've always had with your argument on this is that if Pedro had thrown the innings that Sandy did during their prime run would he have been able to maintain the dominance. While on a per inning basis Pedro outpitched Sandy based on the era's, if Pedro was throwing 300 innings in 1965 I don't think he matches up. But that is me just trying to find a reason to keep Sandy on my pedestal.
2008-11-05 17:53:17
191.   ToyCannon
189
True, but then I think of 1966 Robinson.
2008-11-05 17:55:36
192.   Zak
Whenever I look at what Pedro has accomplished, I am in awe of how awesome he was. Then, I go into default zombie mode and assume that he was just an above average pitcher with a couple of good years. Probably a defense mechanism to deal with him not playing out his career with us.
2008-11-05 17:55:48
193.   Eric Enders
190 If you use that logic then the top 100 pitchers in baseball history all pitched before 1900. Their innings pitched totals leave Koufax in the dust.

Relative to their era, Pedro's and Koufax's workloads were not that different. Pedro ranked in the top 10 in innnings six times, Koufax four times. He never led the league, though, which Koufax did twice.

Plus Pedro's peak was significantly higher and his career significantly longer.

2008-11-05 17:55:56
194.   Tripon
Several club officials believed that Penny wasn't seriously hurt and blamed his decline on his work ethic, which they described as poor.

Er, yikes. First time I heard the Dodgers accusing Penny of dogging it.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-baseball6-2008nov06,0,4306895.story

2008-11-05 17:58:40
195.   Eric Enders
Even though I was in favor of picking up the option, I have to admit that Penny's Faye-Dunaway-in-Chinatown act (I'm hurt! I'm not hurt! I'm hurt! I'm not hurt!) grew tiresome even to me.
2008-11-05 18:01:42
196.   Zak
I think it's a case of Penny and Dodgers were just not workable together anymore. Very similar to Red Sox and Manny, except Manny played well despite trying hard off the field to leave, and Penny just wanting to leave and probably showing that in rehab and on the field. The difference is of course the kind of contracts they will get from here on out. But in general, I think Penny resents the Dodgers for not securing him through past 2008 and somehow blames his injuries or form based on insecurities related to that.
2008-11-05 18:12:10
197.   Eric Enders
So I don't think anyone's brought this up yet, but we can now officially close the book on The Trade. The verdict is a clear win, right? Penny, Choi, and Finley provided a lot more value than Lo Duca, Mota, and Encarnacion did.
2008-11-05 18:14:47
198.   Tripon
Just did a phone interview for ESPNNews. Those guys seem to think it's two years and an option. That probably means the total guarantee is something LESS than $72 million, because it would only include the buyout of the option year.

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/

2008-11-05 18:15:40
199.   ToyCannon
194
Don't pick up option, blast player. Low Class. Depo never did crap like that even if the player deserved it.

Some of you have high opinions of Kim Ng but I'm starting to wonder. Back in 2005, Beltre had failed his 1st year in Seattle. That fall I went to the same fantasy symposium in Arizona that Deburns went to this year. One of the keynote speakers told the whole group that Kim Ng had told him that the Dodgers didn't sign Beltre in the fall of 2004 because of steroid concerns. This seemed bogus to me that someone of Kim's statue would disclose that kind of information. Rob Neyer was there and reported it in his ESPN column but he didn't use Ng's name. For the last three years we have had a slew of negative stuff being leaked from "dodger management".

Just saying, this stuff didn't use to happen, or if it did I don't remember. Burning bridges with players or agents does not seem like a good idea.

2008-11-05 18:16:15
200.   scareduck
195 -

Penny: I'm injured.
Ned: <slaps Penny>
Penny: I'm your sister.
Ned: <faints>

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2008-11-05 18:17:13
201.   Tripon
199 Are you saying Ng is the main leaker? Rob Neyer said he has met with Ng but doesn't know her personally.
2008-11-05 18:39:09
202.   Ken Noe
199 In the Times DePo himself once--only once--alluded to steroid concerns involving Dodger players. I don't remember the exact words or timing, but I well remember concluding that was why Beltre and LoDuca were gone.
2008-11-05 18:42:08
203.   D4P
202
That rings a bell.
2008-11-05 18:44:58
204.   Tripon
202 He was certainly right about LoDuca.
2008-11-05 18:57:03
205.   Megaballs
Off topic

Jay Farrar/Uncle Tupelo Thoughts a week or two back was one of the more imppressive things about an already impressive site.

Bar none, this site has some brilliance to it, has humbled me...and struck a chord like no other with Jay Farrar, Scrubs, Arrested Development love and farm system wisdom.

My faith in humanity is restored.

Thanks!

2008-11-05 19:12:33
206.   DBrim
204 - Yes, he certainly was. His timing was suspect, at best, though.

If you're going to give Manny two years, he's probably going to want AT LEAST 30 million per year. I don't see him taking it.

2008-11-05 19:14:34
207.   D4P
The unwillingness of players like Manny to accept shorter-term contracts is pretty much an admission that they hope to eventually get paid a lot of money to either sit on the bench or play poorly in relation to their established standards.
2008-11-05 19:29:04
208.   El Lay Dave
207 Or that they want to "insure" themselves in case of injury. The security of a longer contract can be desirable. Of course the player often seems himself as underpaid toward the end if he doesn't get injured and does perform as expected....
2008-11-05 19:34:23
209.   68elcamino427
207
If I were able to choose between $60,000,000.00 guaranteed or $120,000,000.00 guaranteed -
I'd take the $120,000,000.00 every time:)
2008-11-05 19:50:53
210.   dzzrtRatt
The unwillingness of players like Manny to accept shorter-term contracts...

He doesn't want to be out there begging for a job at 40.

If Ned wants to get away with paying him for only three years, he has to figure out what Manny could get for a five year deal, subtract from that what Manny is likely to get in his age 40 season in the way of a 1-2 year deal, and pay him the difference.

Otherwise, Manny has no reason to say yes.

So: Manny could probably get five years, $120 million deal if he signed now. If, however, he entered the FA market again in 2011, he probably could only get a 2-year, $30 million deal. Presto: Manny will expect a minimum of $90 million to sign a 3-year deal.

He might actually want more, however, because of the increasing odds of his getting injured. He might leave here in 3 years and only be able to attract a minor-league contract.

Manny's maximum leverage is right now. That's the whole reason he went through that monkey business in Boston -- to avoid having to play two more years and then hit the FA market at an age where he can't command big money.

Typical Ned, applying a good idea (the Furcal-style short contract, which allows the player to return to the FA market while still in his prime) to the wrong circumstance (a great player, but one too old to expect another shot at a super contract in 2-3 years). Either Ned doesn't get it, or he does get it and he's playing the fans for chumps.

Either we can afford Manny for five years or we can't. I'm not fooled by this PR offer.

2008-11-05 19:54:45
211.   Jon Weisman
Shortstop defense:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/030070.php

2008-11-05 20:00:17
212.   Dodgers49
Dodgers' Offer Is Aimed at Trying to Keep Ramírez

>> Shortly before Colletti signaled his interest in keeping Ramírez in Chavez Ravine, Mets General Manager Omar Minaya made it clear to reporters that it was unlikely the Mets would try and recruit Ramírez for left field in Citi Field. <<

http://tinyurl.com/5e3o2j

2008-11-05 20:02:18
213.   fanerman
Angel Berroa > Derek Jeter
2008-11-05 20:04:02
214.   CajunDodger
210
Or it could be that Ned simply thinks that going beyond 2-3 years is foolish. In this case, I think that the issue is less about affordability than it is about effectiveness. I am willing to bet that Boras would like to break the yearly salary record with Manny and would accept a 3/90 deal.

This would allow him to tell his other clients that he just made Manny (a 38 year old poor defensive outfielder) the highest paid player in baseball. This is similar to why he asked for 5 years for Andruw Jones last year but settled for the Dodgers deal. The Dodgers paid 100,000 more than the yearly average for Torii Hunter's deal allowing Boras to claim the richest contract for that offseason.

If I were Ned, you start low because that is simply the best negotiating tactic for a player with a limited market. If he were doing something similar for CC, that would be foolish because there are 6-8 possible destinations whereas with Manny there are probably only 3-4 teams even remotely in the mix.

2008-11-05 20:07:28
215.   68elcamino427
211
Orlando Cabrera ranks 1st "in play" with 4,218 and 1st in "actual outs" with 527 and has a ratio of 101.14 -
the dude's a machine - sign him up!
2008-11-05 20:10:19
216.   Jon Weisman
T.J. Simers dotes on Garret Anderson in his latest column:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-simers6-2008nov06,0,3109002,full.column

The next day he returned a Page 2 call but said he'd like time to separate emotion from business, the pro's pro stepping back once again to do the right thing.

The phone rang Wednesday and it was Garret Anderson following through on his promise to chat when ready.

"The first few days were very tough, the anxiety and just not knowing," he said, "but I'm not bitter at all. If I was bitter, I'd retire rather than be sour the rest of my days in baseball."

The California Angels drafted Anderson in the fourth round in 1990, and 7,989 at-bats later at the major league level, he has compiled a .296 batting average, the model of consistency until being knocked off course last week.

"I was surprised when it happened and wasn't surprised. I had a good season, so picking up the option -- I thought I had earned it. On the flip side, I had been reading the papers, and writers are sometimes right."

2008-11-05 20:12:15
217.   CajunDodger
I am including the link instead of the tinyurl because of the amusing Freudian slip in address.

Anyway, Boras is comparing Oliver Perez to Randy Johnson and (blasphemy) Sandy Koufax in his binder that he is giving out at the GM meetings.

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/the-book-on-borass-clients/

2008-11-05 20:14:53
218.   neuroboy002
In a recent ESPN chat with Jim Caple, a reader asked who was better:

Nick (Long Island, NY): Jon Niese or James McDonald?

SportsNation Jim Callis: Niese.

Don't know who Niese is but I, like everyone else, liked what I saw of McDonald in the playoffs.

2008-11-05 20:16:36
219.   scareduck
217 - sure, in the "there's no way he's in the same class as Randy Johnson or Sandy Koufax" category.
2008-11-05 20:17:12
220.   LogikReader
Good game on at Staples so far: Lakers vs Clippers.

"And now we'll interview Cole Hamels on the Lakers... basketball network!"

Cole Hamels?!?!?! Haven't we Dodger fans been through enough? :)

2008-11-05 20:32:13
221.   trainwreck
220
He was on Rome earlier. Hitting up all the LA spots I guess.
2008-11-05 21:05:39
222.   ToyCannon
217
Randy had a very late start to his career because of his control problems. They are both left handed, both with mid 20 control problems, both with wicked stuff. I used Johnson as a comp and at this age I don't think it is a stretch. At 30 when Oliver still has control problems it will be but there are enough similarities at their comparative age that I don't think Boras is out of bounds to use Randy Johnson in his binder.
2008-11-05 21:06:18
223.   ToyCannon
This is right about when the Clippers forget to score for 10 minutes.
2008-11-05 21:07:55
224.   68elcamino427
So if Furcal is now out of the picture - what is Cabrera asking for - and what is his perceived value as a 34 year old SS next season?
2008-11-05 21:11:58
225.   ToyCannon
Camby
2008-11-05 21:35:48
226.   Eric Stephen
224
Cabrera is coming off a 4/$32m contract, and I would imagine this is his last big splash in the market, so let's look at what we have:

Offense
OPS+ the last 3 years: 91, 95, 84 (overall 90 OPS+, pretty average -- 15th among MLB SS last 3 years)
Relatively high average guy, lots of doubles. Will take a walk

Defense
Pretty average, per +/-.
2006: -12 (31st among SS in MLB)
2007: +2 (16th)
2008: +1 (17th)
Is below average on plays to his right, but makes up for it everywhere else, including a propensity for turning the DP.

Baserunning
Per Bill James Online, Cabrera went from a net gain of 30 bases (baserunning plus steals) in 2006 & 38 in 2007, to only +2 in 2008. Part of this I'm sure can be attributed to being away from those peskily aggressive Angels, but that's a big drop. I'd say he's good for 15-20 steals at an excellent percentage (80.3% career).

I wouldn't mind signing Cabrera to a short-term deal (under $10m per) but he's a Type A, and I wouldn't want to give up a 1st (or 2nd) round pick to acquire his services.

2008-11-05 21:36:44
227.   Eric Stephen
Lamar Odom is not the sharpest tool in the shed.
2008-11-05 21:48:09
228.   fanerman
Farmar has some game.
2008-11-05 22:05:54
229.   Eric Stephen
223
This is right about when the Clippers forget to score for 10 minutes

Well, they waited a while, but went 7 minutes without scoring (starting after taking an 81-79 lead with 8:15 left). A 22-0 Laker run sealed the deal. Wow.

2008-11-05 22:06:28
230.   fanerman
229 Seal deal?
2008-11-05 22:07:52
231.   Eric Stephen
230
Seal got the best deal around with his nuptials.
2008-11-05 22:11:27
232.   trainwreck
231
I suggest going to youtube and checking out the Guitar Hero commercial with Heidi Klum, the director's cut.
2008-11-05 22:20:02
233.   LAT
165. I know we will miss Manny's offense but we saw the best he will ever be.

Perfectly said (as usual).

2008-11-05 22:38:05
234.   LAT
What is the point of trying to posion the well against Penny on the way out the door. Besides the fact that its low class, it doesn't help to drive down the value of one of Genske's clients if you are interested in signing another.
2008-11-06 00:18:45
235.   Louis in SF
Just as many are here I have often been skeptical of Ned and some of his moves. However his initial offer to Manny is pretty much right for the moment. I would have actually liked to see him make a tad higher dollar value but keep the same years.

I hope Ned is able to work out the real comprise which I think will be a four year deal at about 110million, I hope Manny and Boras are smart enough to take it.

2008-11-06 01:00:34
236.   LoneStar7
just read through some of the estimates at the manny offer, interesting stuff, I wish I knew how much manny really liked LA, because i really wonder if he would take a shorter deal to avoid playing long term in a place like baltimore..

anyway listening to cole hamels during the laker game was quite aggravating

2008-11-06 06:22:49
237.   D4P
Stadium construction in New York that was intended to have only a small cost to taxpayers has turned out to be a major investment and allocation of tax breaks, causing many to question whether the economic benefits of rebuilding will ever be seen.

In other news, researchers have discovered that heat is hot.

2008-11-06 07:03:03
238.   Ken Noe
I wonder if McCourt is just tired of paying injured players lots of money. Just as generals fight the last war, he may be dealing as he is with an aging Manny, an aching Furcal, and a sore armed Penny simply because of Nomar, Schmidt, and Jones. Now, CC is young and healthy.
2008-11-06 07:11:56
239.   Gen3Blue
237 Exactly right.

Now I remember why free agent time makes me so nervous. We've been burned a lot lately.
It would be wonderful if we develop some home-grown starters, although I'm pretty good with going after CC.

2008-11-06 07:31:11
240.   Dodger Dawg
I wonder what it would take for the Dodgers to get Edwin Jackson back from Tampa, that and would Ned have any interest in doing that?
2008-11-06 07:31:28
241.   ToyCannon
227
Having watched Odom from his debut I'd say his lack of mental acumen is what may have kept him from being one of the best. His physical tools are amazing when he knows how to use them.

229
From Clip Nation:
"In each of the Clippers 5 games, they have gone through a brutal stretch of total incompetence. 17-0, 18-0, no field goals for 8 minutes... that sort of thing. In 4 of 5 cases, the run has broken open a previously close game - in the other one, it erased a substantial Clipper lead to send the game into OT on the way to defeat."

The common thread in each of these offensive lulls as been Eric Gordon sitting on the bench. Lauded as the best shooter on the team during pre-season, the number 7 pick in the draft can't even get 5 minutes a game for the 0-5 Clippers while Ricky Davis shoots 22%. Just gotta love Dunleavy.

2008-11-06 07:33:15
242.   D4P
I wonder what it would take for the Dodgers to get Edwin Jackson back from Tampa

More than it took for Tampa to get him from the Dodgers.

2008-11-06 07:48:38
243.   JoeyP
It seems like the Dodgers disclosing what they offered Manny is just to show the public they "tried" to resign him.

If they really believed they'd sign him, they wouldnt leak the info ahead of time. They'd just announce the signing.

This leak is complete PR.

I doubt Boras appreciates it either.

2008-11-06 07:53:04
244.   Gen3Blue
Good-bye M.C. So Next was last
2008-11-06 08:00:59
245.   Gen3Blue
It would be awful if we mess up Boras "Theatre". I think his rep is hitting a low point, as some chickens come home to roost
(or should I sat turkeys).
2008-11-06 08:10:38
246.   CajunDodger
243
I actually think that this goes both ways. Boras will use this offer publicly to generate buzz around Ramirez, and he will also leak details of negotiations to the press so as to pressure home markets to rally around certain signings.

I like Colletti doing this because it does not allow Boras to misrepresent the Dodgers offer to other teams and drive the price up.

And I am not sure that it really matters what Boras appreciates. I want Colletti getting Ramirez/CC/Perez/whomever to the Dodgers as cheaply as possible for as few years as possible.

2008-11-06 08:14:37
247.   Tripon
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8762816/Payroll-flexibility-gives-A%27s-option-to-look-at-Furcal

Rosenthal says the A's can have a payroll up to $80 million and is in the Furcal sweepstakes.

2008-11-06 08:20:34
248.   Tripon
"We have some players that would take a major offer to trade. I'd include a lot of our young players in that." - Ned Colletti

In other words, the Dodgers would have to be wowed to deal any of their core.

Meanwhile, Colletti did say that trading Andruw Jones to free up some money was "something to contemplate." - Via Diamond.

So what, do you trade Andruw Jones with $17 million paid on his contract just to free $1 million dollars?

2008-11-06 08:25:35
249.   D4P
Trading Jones isn't likely to free up much money, just a couple seats on the bench.
2008-11-06 08:26:47
250.   CajunDodger
248
Reasonably, I think that trading Jones (if the rumors about him turning on his treadmill are true) could free up anywhere between $4-6 million if his stint in the winter leagues goes well. If not, then getting someone to agree to the league minimum would be challenging.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2008-11-06 08:26:49
251.   Jon Weisman
243 - I was definitely surprised to see Colletti announce the offer like that - usually you wouldn't see negotiations in public - so I'm sort of inclined to agree with you, although I wouldn't say there's no chance he'll sign.
2008-11-06 08:29:30
252.   Tripon
The Dodgers declined right-hander Brad Penny's $9.25 million option because they were turned off by his attitude and did not trust him to be healthy enough to trade in spring training. Penny, however, has hired a full-time trainer from the Athletes' Performance Institute, and he is certain to draw attention in a thin market for starting pitching, especially as a Type B free agent. One thing to remember: Penny has spent his entire career in the National League . . .

From Rosenthal.

2008-11-06 08:35:56
253.   Tripon
More Penny talk from Coletti's own mouth.

"Also Wednesday, the Dodgers declined Brad Penny's $9.25 million option, making the 30-year-old right-hander eligible to become a free agent.

Penny, who receives a $2 million buyout, was 6-9 with a 6.27 ERA in 17 starts and two relief appearances last season. He was bothered by shoulder problems for much of the year and went on the disabled list three times: from June 17 to Aug. 8, Aug. 14 to Sept. 10 and Sept. 24 through the end of the season.

He was acquired by the Dodgers from Florida in July 2004 and won 16 games in both 2006 and 2007.

"This past year, between getting hurt and not being able to come back, we just didn't see enough scope of work, really," Colletti said. "

http://weei.stats.com//mlb/story.asp?i=20081106083307960000101

2008-11-06 08:40:48
254.   Eric Stephen
243
I agree with you that the offer announcement was complete PR. But this part:

I doubt Boras appreciates it either

is something I don't think matters all that much. Boras postulates through the press all the time. Remember the A-Rod opt-out announcement during last year's World Series? That was certainly not appreciated by anyone, yet A-Rod still signed a record contract.

2008-11-06 08:41:59
255.   Jon Weisman
NPUT
2008-11-06 10:22:21
256.   I Am Ziggy Palffy
in the scenario that we have Manny with the expected contract (2 years 55 mil), and C.C. was still with the Brewers with his expected contract (6 yrs/120), would you trade one for the other?

i ask this kinda strange question because when i thought of the scenario, i felt i absolutely would give up an aged Manny for the long-term Ace in C.C....which of course makes me want to bypass the whole process and sign C.C. now rather than Manny

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