Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Help
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Dodger Thoughts
Archives

2009
02  01 

2008
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Reality vs. Expectations
2004-07-12 13:17
by Jon Weisman

According to ESPN's RPI rankings, which take into account strength of schedule, the Dodgers are 10th in baseball, the Giants are 12th and the Padres are 21st.

According to the Pythagorean Standings (scroll down on Rob Neyer's ESPN.com home page), which calculate expected performance based on runs scored and allowed, the Dodgers should have a two-game lead on the Padres and a 2 1/2-game lead on the Giants. In real life, the Dodgers and Padres have one victory more than expected by the Pythagorean Standings; the Giants have three.

The difference is even more pronounced in the Adjusted Standings on Baseball Prospectus. Using more advanced calculations, the NL West leaders are:

Dodgers (47-39 expected, 48-38 actual)
Giants (45-44 expected, 49-40 actual)
Padres (42-46 expected, 47-41 actual)

What this implies is that the Giants and Padres are playing more over their heads than the Dodgers are. However, the Giants outperformed their expected win total throughout 2003.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.