
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
Dodger Thoughts T-Shirts
On sale through February 16, 2008


Click here to order.
* * *
The Best of Dodger Thoughts
A 325-page book featuring the top selections from this website from 2002-2005.
Click here for more information.
* * *
Or, just make a donation to support the site. Many thanks.
"Dodger Thoughts, like TiVo, is one of those things you can completely do without until you start using it."
- Fanerman
SI.com
NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
Colletti and Depo
World Baseball Classic
Minor League Broadcasters
Slow Starts
Eric Gagne
Groundball Pitchers
Dodger Prospects
Albert Pujols
Humbled Angels
You Be the Manager
Eric Gagne II
Unreliable Relievers
Revived Angels
It's Okay To Sell
Dodger Turnaround
Andre Ethier
Padres-Dodgers Showdown
NL Final Weekend
Mets-Dodgers NLDS
Postseason ratings
NL Wish Lists
Manny vs. J.D.
McGwire Controversy
Dodger Offense
Trainers Matter
Variety
Will Arnett
John C. McGinley
Laura Dern
Imelda Staunton
SAG Awards
Ellen Pompeo
Grey's Anatomy
2004-05 Rookie Dramas
Anthony Hopkins
NATPE
Scrubs
Award Shows
Topher Grace
Ashton Kutcher
Writing on Improv Shows
Rainn Wilson
T.R. Knight
Guest Actors
Animation Guests
Joey Carson and Tennis
Donald Trump and Golf
2006 Emmys Nominees*
*Comedy Series
*Comedy Director
*Comedy Writer
*Comedy Actor
*Comedy Supporting Actor
Blue's Clues
Lizzy Caplan
Ann Donahue
CMT: Giants
CMA Awards
Little Miss Sunshine
Actor-Directors
Freshman Series
Clint Eastwood
Showrunners vs. Censors
Little Children
Breaking and Entering
Tartikoff Legacy Awards
Jackie Earle Haley
Knights of Prosperity
Office Online
2007 Screenplay Noms
Friday Night Lights
Robert Benton
ABC Fridays
Rookie Actors
Global Casting
2007 Pilot Casting
Sublime Slime
Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 35-27 (.565)
When Jon attended: 4-3 (.571)
When Jon didn't: 31-24 (.564)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
ESPN BR
BP
Cube Alvarez
ESPN BR
BP
Cube Abreu
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Beimel
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Bennett
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Billingsley
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Brazoban
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Broxton
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube DeWitt
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Ethier
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Furcal
ESPN BR BP Cube Garciaparra
ESPN BR BP Cube Hu
ESPN BR BP Cube Jones
ESPN BR BP Cube Kemp
ESPN BR BP Cube Kent
ESPN BR BP Cube Kuo
ESPN BR BP Cube Kuroda
ESPN BR BP Cube LaRoche
ESPN BR BP Cube Loaiza
ESPN BR BP Cube Loney
ESPN BR BP Cube Lowe
ESPN BR BP Cube Martin
ESPN BR BP Cube May
ESPN BR BP Cube McDonald
ESPN BR BP Cube Meloan
ESPN BR BP Cube Miller
ESPN BR BP Cube Orenduff
ESPN BR BP Cube Park
ESPN BR BP Cube Paul
ESPN BR BP Cube Penny
ESPN BR BP Cube Pierre
ESPN BR BP Cube Proctor
ESPN BR BP Cube Repko
ESPN BR BP Cube Saito
ESPN BR BP Cube Schmidt
ESPN BR BP Cube Stults
ESPN BR BP Cube Sweeney
ESPN BR BP Cube Troncoso
ESPN BR BP Cube Wade
ESPN BR BP Cube Young
ESPN BR BP Cube Alomar
ESPN BR BP Cube Alvarez
ESPN BR BP Cube Aybar
ESPN BR BP Cube Baez
ESPN BR BP Cube Bako
ESPN BR BP Cube Beltre
ESPN BR BP Cube Bradley
ESPN BR BP Cube Cabrera
ESPN BR BP Cube Carrara
ESPN BR BP Cube Carter
ESPN BR BP Cube Chen
ESPN BR BP Cube Choi
ESPN BR BP Cube Cora
ESPN BR BP Cube Crosby
ESPN BR BP Cube Cruz
ESPN BR BP Cube Dessens
ESPN BR BP Cube Dreifort
ESPN BR BP Cube Drew
ESPN BR BP Cube Encarnacion
ESPN BR BP Cube Edwards
ESPN BR BP Cube Erickson
ESPN BR BP Cube Falkenborg
ESPN BR BP Cube Finley
ESPN BR BP Cube Flores
ESPN BR BP Cube Gagne
ESPN BR BP Cube Grabowski
ESPN BR BP Cube Green
ESPN BR BP Cube Guzman
ESPN BR BP Cube Hanrahan
ESPN BR BP Cube Hernandez
ESPN BR BP Cube Hundley
ESPN BR BP Cube Ishii
ESPN BR BP Cube Izturis
ESPN BR BP Cube Jackson
ESPN BR BP Cube Karros
ESPN BR BP Cube Ketchner
ESPN BR BP Cube Ledee
ESPN BR BP Cube Lima
ESPN BR BP Cube Lo Duca
ESPN BR BP Cube Lofton
ESPN BR BP Cube T. Martin
ESPN BR BP Cube Mayne
ESPN BR BP Cube G. Mota
ESPN BR BP Cube Mueller
ESPN BR BP Cube Myrow
ESPN BR BP Cube Nakamura
ESPN BR BP Cube Navarro
ESPN BR BP Cube Nomo
ESPN BR BP Cube Osoria
ESPN BR BP Cube A. Perez
ESPN BR BP Cube O. Perez
ESPN BR BP Cube Phillips
ESPN BR BP Cube Proctor
ESPN BR BP Cube Roberts
ESPN BR BP Cube Robles
ESPN BR BP Cube Romano
ESPN BR BP Cube C. Ross
ESPN BR BP Cube D. Ross
ESPN BR BP Cube Sanchez
ESPN BR BP Cube Schmoll
ESPN BR BP Cube Sele
ESPN BR BP Cube Seo
ESPN BR BP Cube Shuey
ESPN BR BP Cube Stanley
ESPN BR BP Cube S. Stewart
ESPN BR BP Cube Thompson
ESPN BR BP Cube Thurston
ESPN BR BP Cube Valentin
ESPN BR BP Cube Venafro
ESPN BR BP Cube Ventura
ESPN BR BP Cube Weaver
ESPN BR BP Cube Werth
ESPN BR BP Cube Wilson
ESPN BR BP Cube Wunsch
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
Of all the ailments to Darren Dreifort's major league reputation, being wild has never been one. But consider the following chart, which lists the all-time Los Angeles Dodger leaders in walks per nine innings in a season, with a minimum of 50 innings pitched:
BB/9 Year Player
7.13 1960 Danny McDevitt
6.50 1962 Phil Ortega
6.35 1999 Onan Masaoka
6.19 2002 Kazuhisa Ishii
6.19 1959 Stan Williams
6.18 2003 Kazuhisa Ishii
6.07 1962 Joe Moeller
5.94 1958 Sandy Koufax
5.88 1996 Chan Ho Park
5.84 1991 Mike Hartley
Source: Lee Sinins' Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia
Including today's performance against the Cubs, Ishii has improved to 5.19 walks per nine innings in 2004. However, Dreifort, who never previously broke the 5 barrier, is at 5.94.
As it happens, opponents are batting only .225 against Dreifort, which is very good. But because of the walks, each hit Dreifort allows has more potential magnitude for damage.
Since the Dodgers traded Guillermo Mota to Florida, the conversation around Dreifort has centered around whether he should retain the role as setup man for Eric Gagne. This obscures the question of whether Gagne should have a setup man at all at this point.
Is a mediocre setup man better than none?
If Gagne has at least one day of rest, what is the motivation to use anyone else in a close game in the eighth inning? The two-fold answer is fear: fear that the Dodgers will need Gagne fresh on the next day, and fear that Gagne will not be effective in the second inning. (With a token fold thrown to the usual people who would reflexively criticize the breaking of convention.)
Regarding the first point, there haven't been enough opportunities to prove that Gagne is ineffective the day after being used for two innings. Even more to the point, it much more rare than you would think that Gagne is ever needed on consecutive days.
Gagne has pitched in 50 games this season - less than half of the 115 the Dodgers have played. Several of those games have been in a mop-up role.
Gagne Pitching on Consecutive Days, 2004
Two days: 7 times in 4 1/2 months
Three days: 1 time in 4 1/2 months
Four days: 2 times in 4 1/2 months
Total: 15 times in 4 1/2 months
To hold Gagne back on the chance that he will be needed in 24 hours is to bet against the odds. It happens less than once a week.
As for a dropoff in Gagne's second inning of work, that's certainly possible, depending especially on how difficult his first inning is. But the uncertainty of the dropoff is no worse than the uncertainty the Dodgers face when they bring in Dreifort. And there remains the possibility that, as happened Friday against the Cubs, the Dodgers could score enough runs in the ninth inning to eliminate the need for Gagne to pitch an extra frame.
Ironically, the Dodgers have already used the Gagne First scenario with success. In an extra-inning game August 1, Gagne pitched before Dreifort. Facing extraordinary pressure, Dreifort got the save. It was a save that came with only a few feet of a warning-track fly ball to spare, and one that was overshadowed by the three innings Gagne pitched in his longest relief outing in years. The lessons, however, were that the Dodgers were less likely to win if they held Gagne back from pitching until after Dreifort - Gagne might not have even gotten into the game before it was lost - and that Dreifort is Dreifort, whether it is the penultimate inning of the game or the final one.
Today in Chicago, down by two runs, the Dodgers loaded the bases with two out in the eighth inning. If you were Dodger manager Jim Tracy and you weren't restricted by batting order - if you had the choice to bat any Dodger in that situation, who would you choose? A mediocre hitter, on the premise that you might want your best player for the ninth inning? Me, I would choose the best possible Dodger. I would choose Adrian Beltre.
Fortunately for the Dodgers, it was Beltre's turn to bat. Regrettably, he was called out (dubiously) on a check-swing strike three. But at least the Dodgers had their best man up. In contrast, at Cincinnati on Thursday, the Dodgers had a lead in the eighth inning, their best pitcher available and rested, with only one inning pitched in the previous four days - and did not use him. Despite little doubt that he could have handled two innings, Gagne never got into the game.
If it were game 162 of the season and the Dodgers were tied for a playoff spot, would they hold back their best pitcher on the premise that they might need him for a tiebreaking 163rd game? Of course not. It doesn't make sense to leave your best weapons in Maybeland. It's too late in the season for the Dodgers to let Gagne watch and wonder in order to nurture Dreifort's confidence. Dreifort can certainly get people out - just not as often as Gagne. Should there really be such mental anguish over acknowledging a fact as obvious as the earth is round?
The thing is, I think Jim Tracy knows that there shouldn't be. I'm not really even second-guessing him. I just think he's temporarily trapped by this need to play to the general public, to massage Dreifort and to withhold from them the ammunition that would help characterize the trade of Mota as a mistake. Eventually, as he has with Ishii, with Eric Karros and with others, Tracy will probably make it a policy, instead of a rarity, to do what needs to be done. Reducing a player's role is not the same as eliminating it.
Sometimes, the best players fail. Sometimes, lesser players succeed. And the fact is, Dreifort has cost the Dodgers only two games this season. It's way too soon to have a heart attack about it, and I'm not having one. I'm just talking about playing the percentages, about being smart.
Perhaps Dreifort should be the Dodgers' alternate setup reliever. Perhaps it should be promising, albeit hittable, Yhency Brazoban. Perhaps it should be Wilson Alvarez, if the Dodgers get healthy in the starting rotation again.
But it should be clear that the Dodgers already have a first-string setup man, and his name is Eric Gagne.
Comment status: comments have been closed.