Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Help
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Dodger Thoughts
Archives

2009
02  01 

2008
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Is Guzman Truly an 'A' Prospect?
2005-03-02 12:00
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Over at his new, free-to-be-off-ESPN location, minor leagues expert John Sickels has his report on the Dodgers' top 20 minor league prospects. (Thanks to Dodger Thoughts reader Nolan for the fast reaction.)

After everyone's favorite, Joel Guzman (who draws rave reviews everywhere despite walk totals that give me pause), Sickels likes pitcher Chad Billingsley at No. 2 and interestingly, pitcher Jonathan Broxton at No. 3.

It's not so much that I have a problem with Guzman at No. 1 for the Dodgers as I do with the idea that he would be an A. Maybe it's all about the curve, but I feel that in this day and age, points should be deducted for the plate discipline issue. Not saying Guzman won't be a regular, or even a star someday, but I feel that he could still be years away at best.

Just as an example - not that it proves anything - Adrian Beltre had significantly better walk totals in the minor leagues. In 306 games, Guzman has walked 77 times. In 385 minor league games, Beltre walked 218 times.

On the other hand, Miguel Cabrera, to whom Sickels compares Guzman, walked 129 times in 360 minor league games - and Cabrera is already a star player at age 21. So, maybe ...

Like I said, it depends on the curve. I don't know how many other players were given A grades. Ultimately, we can have high hopes for Guzman, but though he may make the majors this year or next, he's not likely to excel before 2007. Plan accordingly.

At the same time, for all the praise the Dodger system has gotten, there really isn't a single other position player who looks likely to become an above-average major-league hitter. Certainly, some like Dioner Navarro could become starters and, thanks to the position they play, above-average players despite their average hitting, and James Loney could rebound. But if the Dodger farm system is one of the best in the game, I think it's a) because of pitching and b) reflective of greater uncertainty in the position player market than we normally feel.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.