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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
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11) commenting under the obvious influence
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June 3 Open Chat: Twoothless
2005-06-03 16:59
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Tonight's Game

Did you notice the Brewers lost by two runs again? They are now 0-9 in two-run games.

Comments (326)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-06-03 17:21:02
1.   Bob Timmermann
Random Dodger game callback

June 3, 1886

Behind a strong pitching performance from Henry Taylor, Brooklyn battered around Louisville at Washington Park, 11-2. Brooklyn improved to 18-14, 3 games behind first place St. Louis.

Manager Charlie Byrne had to juggle his lineup this day with regular shortstop Germany Smith out for the day. So pitcher Adonis Terry filled in at shortstop and played an errorless game while also getting one of Brooklyn's 13 hits on the day.

The star for the Louisville team was Pete Browning, for whom the famous Louisville Slugger is named. Louisville also had an outfielder named Chicken Wolf. And a pitcher named Toad Ramsey. And a rookie pitcher named Elton "Icebox" Chamberlain.

Brooklyn had a fairly good offense for the season, scoring 832 runs, but the pitching staff gave up 830. The team finished 76-61 and in third place 16 games behind St. Louis, the dominant team in the American Association. Brooklyn did have serious problems catching the ball even by 19th century standards, making 610 errors and fielding .900 as a team.

Things were going to have to get worse in Brooklyn though before it got better.

With not much going in the baseball world on this day (that I can come up with), I can tell you that the front page of the New York Times had a story about the reaction in Britain to Senator James Blaine's speech about Irish home rule (which he favored). The general consensus in the press seemed to be "ignorant rant". The man who beat Blaine in the 1884 presidential election, Grover Cleveland, was having a better time as he was off on his honeymoon. The president's marriage was big news as the 49-year old bachelor (who had admitted to fathering a child out of wedlock during the 1884 campaign) married a 21-year old named Frances Folsom. The Clevelands would be the first presidential couple to have a baby born in the White House. The Clevelands' first child, Ruth, was born in 1891. That child is apparently NOT for whom the Baby Ruth candy bar is named. (http://www.snopes.com/business/names/babyruth.asp)

Thanks to the NY Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet

2005-06-03 17:23:57
2.   Bob Timmermann
The 1886 Louisville team also had the AA's leading hitter, Guy Hecker, who batted .341 (1 point better than Pete Browning.)

Hecker was primarily a pitcher too.

2005-06-03 17:29:51
3.   Jon Weisman
When I lived in Washington, D.C., there was a museum exhibit about first ladies. Frances Cleveland, if I recall correctly, is by far the most attractive first lady in U.S. history.
2005-06-03 17:38:13
4.   Bob Timmermann
(Wolf whistle)

http://library.thinkquest.org/TQ0312172/frances%20cleveland.jpg

2005-06-03 17:48:35
5.   Linkmeister
Mrs. Cleveland remarried after President Cleveland's death. Huh. So Jackie O wasn't the first to do that.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/history/firstladies/fc2224.html

I just read McCullough's bio of John Adams, so I'm kinda fond of Abigail, although as a liberal Democrat I think highly of Eleanor Roosevelt too.

2005-06-03 17:56:00
6.   Vishal
"Frances Cleveland, if I recall correctly, is by far the most attractive first lady in U.S. history."

eh, i saw the picture. you can keep her and give me jackie kennedy any day.

2005-06-03 17:56:19
7.   Suffering Bruin
Hey there!

Stealing time on another friends computer and wondering why "Fact of Choi" would even be missed with the superb RDGC provided by BT.

So... what can I contribute? I think this is very, very funny.

www.ilovederekjeter.com

Check it out. I don't mean to oversell but you won't be sorry.

Fact of Choi returns when I get the internet which is June 6th.

2005-06-03 18:08:43
8.   Dodgerkid
Once you look past her smallpox scars, I'd say Frances is a hottie.
2005-06-03 18:19:31
9.   Jim Tracy
"I do believe in fairies, I do, I do". Brilliant!!!
2005-06-03 18:22:19
10.   Linkmeister
Please tell me that's satire.
2005-06-03 18:40:23
11.   LAT
"In my dreams he is furiously pumping his fist, again and again. Pumping and pumping like a steam engine.

And this guy says his love of Jeter is not a gay love. Dude you are gayer than Rip Taylor at a Tupperware party.

2005-06-03 18:46:00
12.   Dodgerkid
LAT look up above your head. WHOOSH!!
2005-06-03 18:49:27
13.   Woody
Eleanor Roosevelt wouldn't have won a beauty contest, nor is she as funny as the Derek Jeter site, but she was a wonderful human being, and pushed (though somewhat unsuccessfully) FDR toward desegretation of the armed services (tried for desegration in society in general, but failed), fought against the internment of Japanese Americans, and basically performed unselfish acts for the all humankind during her husband's administrations. "Beauty isn't skin deep, yeah, yeah, yeah"...The Temptations (1965?)
2005-06-03 18:49:43
14.   KAYVMON
I would like to thank Jon for posting about Gagne yesterday, the day I moved into his hometown. It makes me feel like Jon cares about his posters non-Dodger related lives. By the way, it is an unbelievable city from what I've seen so far, especially if you are single. Think as eclectic as Venice Beach with girls that look like they belong in Beverly Hills. Or not.
2005-06-03 18:54:22
15.   Woody
Excuse please: The Temps lyrics were "Beauty's only skin deep...yeah, yeah, yeah".
2005-06-03 18:56:30
16.   LAT
Kid, I just linked from Suffering Bruin's post and didn't read any further. In retrospect it must be satire. But why? Is Jeter an icon amung the West Hollywood set.
2005-06-03 18:58:24
17.   Dodgerkid
I think it stems from Red Sox T-shirts I've seen in Boston that simply say "Jeter's Gay!"
2005-06-03 19:03:22
18.   LAT
I'm guessing Jeter gets more ass than Bill Clinton, the Maloof Brothers and Tom Cruise combined. (Well the jury may still be out about Cruise) But I guess the "Jeter's Gay" shirts are like when Giant fans chant "beat LA" when they are playing the Padres. It just makes no sense.
2005-06-03 19:03:55
19.   Woody
Last June when I was in Boston for the Dodger series, I saw T's that said "Jeter sucks A-Rod". Nice, eh?
2005-06-03 19:04:15
20.   Brian Y
Repko back batting 2nd, Milton heads to the D.L.
2005-06-03 19:12:54
21.   LAT
Top 9 in Boston: Red sox 7-4, bases loaded, Finly up. . .strike three swinging. Game over.
2005-06-03 19:14:59
22.   LAT
Oh man, I just turned on the TV all ready to go. . .forgot its a 7:40 start.
2005-06-03 19:20:21
23.   LAT
D. Lee grounds out in the first in SD. That guy isn't any good.
2005-06-03 19:29:53
24.   LAT
Cubs 2-0. Lee strikes out on three pitches with runners on 1b and 2b to end the inning. He couldn't do that earlier this week?
2005-06-03 19:32:11
25.   Albert in Hong Kong
A hit for the cycle.

MB on the DL is not good.

2005-06-03 19:39:22
26.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Anyone have a decent idea of how long Milton will be out? Is a slight ligament tear something that can heal in 15 days or earlier (I think the DLing will be retroactive, no?). Or is this something we just won't know until later.

WWSH

2005-06-03 19:41:26
27.   Marty
Let's get a LOT of runs tonight!
2005-06-03 19:41:35
28.   Linkmeister
So is the Brewers' shortstop (JJ Hardy) named Joe, and has he sold his soul to the devil?
2005-06-03 19:42:26
29.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
I actually Weaver will pitch well tonight. 7 IP, 3 ER. I hope this isn't just wishful thinking.

WWSH

2005-06-03 19:45:38
30.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Oh, great, I spoke too soon it seems. Anyone know what Weaver's velocity looks like? I'm listening via Gameday Audio.

WWSH

2005-06-03 19:47:33
31.   kngoworld
JINX!
2005-06-03 19:48:18
32.   LAT
Top 1: We are in trouble. Weaver looks horrible. Is Bob T at this game?
2005-06-03 19:49:37
33.   Marty
Jeez. I feel bad for Bob. Weaver needs to be disappeared.
2005-06-03 19:49:49
34.   LAT
That was Vinny's fault. Talking about how the Brewers had not hit a GS.
2005-06-03 19:49:51
35.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Arggghhhhhh---no more posts from me. I should've known not to post what just came into my head--it wasn't totally crazy, since Weaver did look much better his last start. Those first two hits sounded pretty cheap.
2005-06-03 19:50:55
36.   Vic
Glass-half-full type that I am, I choose to look at Weaver's first-inning futility with optimism -- at least I can go out and enjoy my Friday night without having to worry about whether the Dodgers will win tonight.
2005-06-03 19:51:52
37.   Steve
The Magnificent Seven is on in eight minutes on Turner Classic. That is where I'll be.

Have hope for Thompson, have hope for Houlton. Give up on Weaver. He's done. Fork. Stick. Done.

2005-06-03 19:51:54
38.   LAT
Note to Weaver: MB ain't gonna bail you out this time.
2005-06-03 19:53:03
39.   Marty
The Magnificent Seven is one of my all time favorites. I may need to switch
2005-06-03 19:53:34
40.   LAT
Looks like Drew is going to be very busy tonight running hither and yon.
2005-06-03 19:57:44
41.   Langhorne
Just to annoy us further I expect Weaver to go the next five or six innings without giving up another run. And the Dodgers will lose 4-2 while getting four hits.
2005-06-03 19:58:33
42.   kngoworld
Lets go Repko!
2005-06-03 19:58:43
43.   Vishal
the good news: weaver's velocity is back; he's hitting 90 with his fastball. also, the first two brewer hits were really lucky garbage hits. the first was a bloop/flare that barely carried into right field, and the second was a double play chopper to second that kent wasn't there to field because he was covering second on the hit-and-run.

the bad news: weaver REALLY shouldn't have walked jenkins, who's hitting .258. no reason to nibble with that guy at all. i'd say that's almost a grabowski principle violation there, even with the mitigating circumstances of runners on first and third. and then he continued to nibble against carlos lee and ran up the count to 3-1, after which, naturally, he left a fastball right over the plate which carlos lee had no trouble jumping all over.

anyway, all hope is not lost for weaver, i think. just most of the hope for tonight's game.

2005-06-03 20:00:10
44.   Albert in Hong Kong
#40 come true
2005-06-03 20:00:15
45.   Fearing Blue
Here's hoping that Bob T got caught in traffic and doesn't make it to the game until the 2nd.
2005-06-03 20:00:45
46.   Jim Hitchcock
TCM aired `On Any Sunday' last night. Followed by `Endless Summer'.

Sigh.

2005-06-03 20:08:44
47.   kngoworld
Frustrations
2005-06-03 20:17:35
48.   Fearing Blue
Sweet pitch by Weaver to K Clark.
2005-06-03 20:22:38
49.   Jim Hitchcock
Hah! That's the explanation regarding Gagne's change discussed in the previous thread.

"As you know, when Gagne throws a change, he turns it over a little bit".

2005-06-03 20:23:47
50.   LAT
When it rains it pours. Cubs about to get out of trouble with inning ending DP when Walker throws the ball into the Padre dugout. now 2-2
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-06-03 20:24:49
51.   LAT
Sorry it was Nefi not Walker
2005-06-03 20:26:03
52.   LAT
Now CUbs walk bases loaded w/ 2 outs
2005-06-03 20:27:44
53.   LAT
Nevin hits 2 out single 4-2. CUBS SUCK!!
2005-06-03 20:30:36
54.   LAT
Is it too late to join Magnificant Seven already in progress?
2005-06-03 20:32:24
55.   LAT
Now 5-3 SD
2005-06-03 20:34:46
56.   Marty
Man, I sound like a Derek Jeter lover, but it's the musical score that that brings me back to the Magnificent Seven always. That and the fact that McQueen is so cool.
2005-06-03 20:40:10
57.   kngoworld
OK boys, what inning are we going to tie this game?
2005-06-03 20:40:28
58.   LAT
You know its a boring game when Vin starts talking about how hard it is to read the papers these days with all the bad news.
2005-06-03 20:42:14
59.   Dodgers Fan in NorCal
58: Yeah, especially the Sports page.

57: One bad pitch, nothing major. I would say 6th or 7th?

2005-06-03 20:44:20
60.   LAT
Its the nesting dolls fault. Nesting dolls are not a respectable stadium giveaway, unless of course, you love Derek Jeter. They are giving us the voodoo hex. Break the nesting dolls and set the Dodgers free.
2005-06-03 20:45:35
61.   Fearing Blue
Good Weaver took over for his evil twin after the grand slam.
2005-06-03 20:47:45
62.   Albert in Hong Kong
Something had BETTER be going here..
2005-06-03 20:47:48
63.   kngoworld
As expected.
2005-06-03 20:48:42
64.   kngoworld
Thanks for the gift Cap.
2005-06-03 20:48:50
65.   LAT
Please Olmedo Please!
2005-06-03 20:50:20
66.   kngoworld
OK Werth, its your turn.
2005-06-03 20:51:29
67.   LAT
Vin stop sying stuff like Mil is 28th in DPs. You did it with the GS in the 1st
2005-06-03 20:51:31
68.   Albert in Hong Kong
Scully might be jinxing it again by giving us stats before they happen.
2005-06-03 20:52:02
69.   kngoworld
We need to score atleast two runs this inning. Although I would prefer many more.
2005-06-03 20:53:02
70.   LAT
What a suck AB. He was fooled on all three pitches.
2005-06-03 20:53:44
71.   kngoworld
OK, time to be a hero Antonio!
2005-06-03 20:54:40
72.   Dodgers Fan in NorCal
Keeps taking 'em for the team; I was just about to say Cap doesn't look fazed.
2005-06-03 20:54:48
73.   Albert in Hong Kong
Plugged!
2005-06-03 20:54:57
74.   kngoworld
That works for me, way to take one for a the team!
2005-06-03 20:55:04
75.   LAT
We'll take it. Now Vin STOP talking about the DP
2005-06-03 20:55:24
76.   Albert in Hong Kong
Do what you did in Cincy, Phillips.
2005-06-03 20:57:24
77.   Xeifrank
Please hit for Weaver Mr Tracy.

I doubt you will. It's not Roger Clemens pitching remember!
vr, Xei

2005-06-03 20:57:52
78.   LAT
Frank where ya been
2005-06-03 20:58:11
79.   Xeifrank
2 outs bases loaded down by 3, you HAVE to hit for Weaver.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 20:58:33
80.   Xeifrank
78. Taken care of the baby! :)
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 20:58:55
81.   kngoworld
How hard is it to get a sacrafice fly, CMON GUYS!
2005-06-03 20:58:56
82.   Albert in Hong Kong
Pretty tough decision for Tracy, and people will say FJT if it fails both ways. But I say pinch-hit for Weaver instaed.
2005-06-03 20:59:11
83.   Xeifrank
Come on Tracy, it's not like Weaver is going to pitch 7 innings tonight. He will be lucky to pitch 6 1/3 (over/under)
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 20:59:51
84.   Xeifrank
I would only say FJT if Weaver gets out and we lose by 3 runs or less.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:01:35
85.   Jim Hitchcock
Well, back to the movie.
2005-06-03 21:01:36
86.   Dodgers Fan in NorCal
ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGH.
2005-06-03 21:01:42
87.   Xeifrank
Weaver leaves the bases loaded, half way there to a FJT game.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:01:54
88.   LAT
This is why we suck and will always suck. How can you have sacks full, no outs and only get one run (which you didn't earn). 2 strikeouts UNBELIEVABLE. At least Weaver had better AB than Werth or Phillips
2005-06-03 21:01:59
89.   adamclyde
heck... weaver has a better average in not many less at bats than Werth...
2005-06-03 21:02:12
90.   adamclyde
scratch that
2005-06-03 21:02:20
91.   Albert in Hong Kong
"Dodgers are fortunate to get 1."

Should have scored at least 3, with 3 on and 0 outs. What is the run expectancy, like 2.5?

2005-06-03 21:02:58
92.   kngoworld
Frustrations!
2005-06-03 21:03:36
93.   adamclyde
and watch... all we need is weaver to come out and throw a few home run balls to make the irony sweet
2005-06-03 21:04:17
94.   LAT
The other reason to hit for Weaver is the failure to score takes what little wind there was out of the Dodger sails. If Edwards or Ledee gets a base hit and we get 2 we have the momentum
2005-06-03 21:04:39
95.   Albert in Hong Kong
Brewers 1 left on base as opposed to Dodgers 5 left on base.
2005-06-03 21:04:56
96.   heato
It seems like the Dodgers never score when they have a chance for a big inning, but whoever we are playing will invariably put the game away if given the same opportunity.
2005-06-03 21:05:41
97.   Steve
Memo to Mr. Jim Tracy:

Dear Sir,

I know you are a big fan of allowing very bad pitchers to bat for themselves with the bases loaded. Previous times you have done so this season, I have only suffered the misfortune of having to watch. However, now you are ruining my enjoyment of The Magnificent Seven, which is an unacceptable managerial strategy. Please note that next time I am watching a great movie, you should pull your head out of your ass and bat for the guy who gave up a grand slam before ever getting an out.

Sincerely,

Steve

P.S. I would love to meet the person who would criticize taking Weaver out at any time for any reason.

2005-06-03 21:06:36
98.   kngoworld
Weaver better strike out the side in the next 2 innings.
2005-06-03 21:07:53
99.   adamclyde
"P.S. I would love to meet the person who would criticize taking Weaver out at any time for any reason."

"Hi Steve, my name is Jim Tracy. I understand you want to meet me..."

2005-06-03 21:08:26
100.   Albert in Hong Kong
1/3 of the way there, #98
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-06-03 21:09:22
101.   Fearing Blue
#83/97: I disagree. Good Weaver is pitching tonight. Look at his stats since the grand slam.
2005-06-03 21:09:53
102.   LAT
My 11 yr daughter walked into the room when the Dodgers had the bases loaded. She saw Perez get plunked and went back to Princess Diaries II. She just came back in and said "Dad the Dodgers only got 1 run on a guy who got hit. That is pathetic!" As Vin would say, "Out of the mouths of babes. . ."
2005-06-03 21:10:07
103.   Fearing Blue
#101: Additionally, Houlton is pitching tomorrow with a pitch count. It's not like we can blow through our bullpen early tonight.
2005-06-03 21:11:44
104.   Fearing Blue
Good Weaver = 1 K / IP. Bad Weaver = 0 K / IP.
2005-06-03 21:12:57
105.   Albert in Hong Kong
The presence of a Bad Weaver and a Good Weaver in the same game means it is a bad game.
2005-06-03 21:13:32
106.   Eric L
Thanks Fearing.. that was gonna be my point..

Last night, Thompson went 5 innings. Chances are, Houlton isn't going to go much further than that. Lowe went 5 2/3 on Wednesday night. Wilson went 5 on Monday.

The bullpen has been pretty taxed lately.

2005-06-03 21:13:55
107.   kngoworld
I agree with 105
2005-06-03 21:14:32
108.   LAT
#103 Additionally, Weaver is a pretty good hitter. Having said all of that Blue, you can't win the game if you don't get back into it. Tie the score if you can and then if you lose it becasue you made one of your mops (read Erikson) go to long so be it. But you have to get back into it first
2005-06-03 21:15:09
109.   Steve
Look at his stats since the grand slam? You're kidding, right?

1) I would love to discount his grand slam, but there's only so long you can be the unluckiest SOB in the entire world and then you just have to give up and realize that he's Hideo Nomo.

2) That grand slam put us four runs behind, making it necessary to score runs, regardless of how "well" he pitches for however long he pitches.

3) I don't care what Jeff Weaver's fluky batting average is, he still can't hit.

4) Let tomorrow take care of tomorrow.

5) Erickson, et. al are no better or worse than Weaver -- sub-replacement level pitcher for sub-replacement level pitcher.

The only advantage to having really bad pitchers, it seems to me, is precisely that you can bat for them in that situation. If you don't do it, then why don't you just get a pitcher like Josh Beckett and make him hit three times a game?

2005-06-03 21:16:23
110.   kngoworld
Is Izzy in a little slump?
2005-06-03 21:17:35
111.   Steve
OK, Repko's bunting. You're killing The Magnificent Seven guys. You're strangling it in its crib.
2005-06-03 21:18:05
112.   LAT
#110 hard to tell if we have just gotten too used to him getting a hit most of the time
2005-06-03 21:19:17
113.   heato
Does the "C" in C. Capuno stand for Cy? Or is he just pitching against the Dodgers?
2005-06-03 21:19:23
114.   kngoworld
Getting hit is our most potent offense tonight. Hope he is OK.
2005-06-03 21:19:57
115.   LAT
Cubs have sacks full, 2 outs, in SD, Dubis strikes out on three pitches
2005-06-03 21:22:36
116.   Albert in Hong Kong
101 pitches and 1 ER in 5 innings for Capuano.
2005-06-03 21:24:07
117.   Xeifrank
109. Ditto! Let's just hope we don't have a repeat of the two sac-bunt attempt fiascos of the other night. That was worse... but heck, the night is still young.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:24:44
118.   Steve
How quickly we forget that this would have been a carbon copy of his last start against the D-Backs, for the want of about three feet on a bases-loaded drive off the bat of Alex Cintron.
2005-06-03 21:25:15
119.   Xeifrank
Vin is going nuts on the Padres/Cubs updates. You'd think it was September 26th and we were down by two games.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:26:03
120.   dzzrtRatt
I'm stunned to realize this is going to turn out to be a crap year. Didn't seem that way at first. But if this team can't "get well" against a crap team like Milwaukee, it certainly won't win a division or Wild Card race.
2005-06-03 21:26:39
121.   kngoworld
LAT is going nuts on the updates also.
2005-06-03 21:26:40
122.   LAT
Yeah that's crazy becasue we all know that by September 26 wwe'll be down by 18 games
2005-06-03 21:26:49
123.   Xeifrank
What's the deal with the NL East!? Five teams, all within 2 games of each other. Pretty exciting stuff.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:27:55
124.   Fearing Blue
#109: Ok. So, let's say Weaver's true ability is .200 and Ledee's is .300 though I don't think the difference is that large. Thus, if two runs score on a single, it's about a .2 expected run difference between the two. Weaver was at 64 pitches through 4, so you can expect at least two more innings from him. So, you're looking at two innings from Weaver or two innings from Erickson. If you don't think the difference between the two is 1.80 in ERA (even on a bad day for Weaver), then you're smoking crack. This analysis completely ignores the fact that we already have a better chance to win tomorrow (50% starting 0-0) then we do tonight. Even with the bases loaded, down by 3 with two outs in the 4th, our win expectancy sat at 14%.
2005-06-03 21:28:40
125.   Vishal
i don't think hitting for weaver with 2 out in only the fourth inning there is a no-brainer necessarily. weaver had pitched badly to a total of two batters in the whole game, and had allowed zero hits since the first out of the game. and capuano's throwing a lot of pitches, so we're going to see the brewer middle relief corps soon enough. the game is hardly out of reach.
2005-06-03 21:29:39
126.   Xeifrank
Does Weaver pitch the 7th if he doesn't bat in the bottom of the 6th? I'd say the 7th is his imposion inning.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:31:21
127.   kngoworld
If weaver does not bat in the 6th, he will surely be out there in the 7th. Thank you JT for being so predictable.
2005-06-03 21:31:23
128.   Fearing Blue
#124: It also ignores the fact that it's obviously good Weaver tonight for anyone who's watching the game. His fastball has great late break back over the outside edge of the plate, his curveball is nasty, and he's striking people out.
2005-06-03 21:32:10
129.   heato
No way Weaver pitches next inning after throwing 99 through six. I bet that we see Duaner.
2005-06-03 21:32:13
130.   Steve
Who put our win expectancy at 14%? It appears that Weaver is going to get through the fifth and the sixth, but one would not assume that he was going to at the time. Maximize your run-scoring possibilities and throw the bad pitchers out to the wolves. Weaver, Erickson, Carrara...any of them can get lucky and throw a scoreless inning or two. Or blow up and give up five runs. Whatever. I'm not really concerned at this point which arsonist is on the mound any more, if it's not Penny or Gagne.
2005-06-03 21:32:21
131.   Albert in Hong Kong
I'm not sure anyone has discussed this yet, but does anyone think that we'd be even worse if we had the same exact roster as last season, considering Beltre is continuing where he left off from 2003?
2005-06-03 21:32:36
132.   kngoworld
One AB too late, but I will take it.
2005-06-03 21:32:39
133.   Xeifrank
Old Maid Signs goes deep... dumb luck for the Dodgers that nobody was on base.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:33:10
134.   Fearing Blue
#126/127: Agreed. I hope his spot comes up this inning and he gets hit for. He's sitting at 99 pitches through the night and based on the fact that he hasn't allowed a hit since the 1st, it would be hard to pull him otherwise.
2005-06-03 21:34:04
135.   Xeifrank
Yep, Sanchez is up in the pen.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:34:10
136.   kngoworld
I wouldnt be surprised if he hits for himself in this inning given the opportunity.
2005-06-03 21:34:41
137.   Xeifrank
Werth looks as bad as Nakamura did... well, not that bad, but almost as bad.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:35:13
138.   Xeifrank
Hold the phone, Vin is giving another long winded Padres/Cubs update. My god!
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:35:39
139.   kngoworld
Who wants to bet that Repko stays and Werth gets sent down with Bradley comes back from DL?
2005-06-03 21:36:02
140.   Fearing Blue
#130: The website that Frank always quotes from put our win expectancy at 14%.

http://walkoffbalk.com/tools/winexp/index.php

If you're going to say that all pitchers not Gagne or Penny are equivalent, than it's worthless arguing. To make a logical decision, you have to take your expected scoring advantage from pulling Weaver and compare it to your expected runs allowed differential with the expected substitute. If the math is in your favor, you make the move. If not, you don't.

2005-06-03 21:36:38
141.   Xeifrank
When is Bradley eligible to come back off the DL?
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:36:45
142.   Steve
131 -- yes, we would be the same or worse, and not only that, but we would have zero roster flexibility, zero payroll flexibility, and we would be clogging the road for LaRoche and Guzman.
2005-06-03 21:37:23
143.   Steve
It's worthless arguing.
2005-06-03 21:37:26
144.   Fearing Blue
#131: We would absolutely be worse and more expensive.
2005-06-03 21:37:42
145.   LAT
#121 I'm just going nuts with the updates becasue this game has nothing to offer. Gotta get me yayas somewhere. I was just looking to the Cubs tonight.
2005-06-03 21:38:36
146.   Langhorne
Olmedo again!

Now let's see if Werth can touch the ball. Three pitches = third strike out. But he did foul one off.

The thing that makes me hate Weaver is that he makes me feel empathy for Yankees fans of a couple of years ago. Inexcusable.

2005-06-03 21:39:06
147.   Xeifrank
140. Somehow I don't see JT capable of doing any complicated math like this. Somehow I see JT as technologically advanced as Jerry Seinfelds dad, ala the episode that Jerry buys him an advanced calculator and he is so excited because now he can figure out how much of a tip to leave.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:39:23
148.   kngoworld
I didn't mean my #121 in a bad way or anything, just pointing out a similarity with vinny.
2005-06-03 21:40:44
149.   Steve
Weaver not batting + Phillips making the last out = Weaver staying in?
2005-06-03 21:41:34
150.   Xeifrank
If Weaver stays in, I boldly predict that he won't finish the inning and will hit his over/under on the head at 6 1/3... yep, Weaver is still in. Let's see...
vr, Xei
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-06-03 21:42:20
151.   Fearing Blue
#140: Agreed. Tracy closes his eyes, reaches into his back pocket, and then goes with whatever he happens to pull out. I'm just saying that in this case the analysis says he pulled out something that doesn't smell bad.
2005-06-03 21:42:57
152.   Fearing Blue
#149: Unfortunately.. Sanchez better be toasty warm out their in the bullpen.
2005-06-03 21:43:02
153.   Xeifrank
6 1/3. Weaver has hit the over/under. Looks like the Overs may win tonight. Pigs are flying tonight.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:43:07
154.   kngoworld
What would be a better usage of an over/under for pitchers, # of pitches thrown or # of innings pitched?
2005-06-03 21:44:06
155.   Fearing Blue
#150: Uh oh. Looks like your stating the obvious may have jinxed him, Frank.
2005-06-03 21:45:12
156.   LAT
#143 Watch out Utah bar here he comes !!!
2005-06-03 21:45:13
157.   Fearing Blue
#154: Innings pitched is a better measure of quality. 100 pitches in 4 innings is quite a bit different from 100 pitches in 8 innings.
2005-06-03 21:46:15
158.   Fearing Blue
Vin just said this guy doesn't have any power. Be looking for one to clear the bleachers any minute now.
2005-06-03 21:46:47
159.   Steve
California Bar!

Oh, to get the chance to write the closing argument prosecuting Jeff Weaver for the intentional tort of bad pitching.

2005-06-03 21:46:54
160.   Fearing Blue
Weaver was just pantsed by the umpire on what should have been strike three.
2005-06-03 21:47:07
161.   Xeifrank
Weaver looks pissed that he didn't get that 0-2 backdoor curve called a strike. Can't blame him, it looked like a strike.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:48:06
162.   Albert in Hong Kong
It was just a little off to the right on Gameday.
2005-06-03 21:48:09
163.   Xeifrank
Weaver should be out of the inning.

Error (2nd out), bad call by ump (3rd out).
vr, Xei

2005-06-03 21:48:29
164.   LAT
Kngoworld, no offense taken. I'll take being compared to Vin any day--except our hair. I just don't know where you can buy that shade of yellow/gold.
2005-06-03 21:49:08
165.   Xeifrank
162. Can they put a ball in the strike zone on GameDay. Looked good on TV.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:49:42
166.   Xeifrank
Overs win.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:50:12
167.   Xeifrank
Am I posting too much again. Please let me know. :) I just happen to be a super fast typer.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:50:38
168.   Albert in Hong Kong
#165 I've seen it before.
2005-06-03 21:51:04
169.   Steve
Glad he's past that dead arm. 115 pitches to date.
2005-06-03 21:51:05
170.   Albert in Hong Kong
Well I saw it on mlbtv too, I also thought it was a strike, but it might have just missed.
2005-06-03 21:51:08
171.   kngoworld
Does not bother me, Frank.
2005-06-03 21:51:28
172.   Langhorne
Somebody get that bat out of Robles' hand!
2005-06-03 21:51:50
173.   Fearing Blue
That backdoor curve is filthy. Weaver's pitches look better tonight than any other in recent memory.
2005-06-03 21:53:44
174.   LAT
Frank if were talking about abusing the privilage I have you beat by a longshot tonight. I've been blathering tonight. But what the hell some nights are just that way. After all this is a site for dealing psychologically with the Dodgers
2005-06-03 21:53:46
175.   Xeifrank
Wonder if Weaver hits for himself in the bottom of the 7th? I mean, he is pitching great since that first inning fiasco and obviously Jim Tracy thinks he's one heck of a hitter (reference leaving him in to hit with bases loaded).
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:54:34
176.   Nagman
Any lip readers out there? Weaver had something to say to the ump as he walked off... I caught one word, or the second half of a word, rhymes with coal.
2005-06-03 21:55:28
177.   Fearing Blue
#169: Yeah.. that's dumb.

Yada, yada, yada grand slam. Still, that's one of Weaver's better starts. Any one of us would have taken our chances with a 7 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HR performance. It's unfortunate that all of those hits were together :).

2005-06-03 21:55:51
178.   Xeifrank
Yay! Choi gets to play tonight. I'd just throw him fastballs up and in all at bat long.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:56:06
179.   Fearing Blue
Dodgers looking for a "happy ending". Vin needs to get his mind out of the gutter.
2005-06-03 21:56:07
180.   LAT
Steve, did you go to law school in Utah and are taking the bar in CA?
2005-06-03 21:57:03
181.   Xeifrank
I bet Scott Erickson gets the happiest ending. :)
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:57:52
182.   Steve
120 pitches. And he's just fine. Don't worry.

There's no doubt that not batting for him worked out, at least on the pitching side of the ledger. But you'll have to forgive me if I keep taking the under on Weaver for awhile -- say, all year.

2005-06-03 21:58:28
183.   Xeifrank
Weaver pissed on the strike call to Choi. Anyone read lips, Choi said something to the ump that rhymes with kapui.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 21:58:29
184.   Fearing Blue
#176: Whatever it was, Weaver just repeated it on Choi's called strike.
2005-06-03 21:59:01
185.   Fearing Blue
#183: Damn. Beat me by a second.
2005-06-03 21:59:19
186.   Steve
180 -- you are correct, sir. It was cheaper with three children to play it that way and still attend a quality school.
2005-06-03 22:00:18
187.   Christina
Arrived late again - and I've given up on Gameday for tonight after it showed a Mariner pitching to a Mariner. Stupid Gameday.

Well, at least this game is still within reach...

2005-06-03 22:00:28
188.   Xeifrank
Weaver pitched fine, made Tracy's choice to let him hit look like a winner to the lay person. Let's see what happens, and what the final score is. If we lose by one run, then his decision looks awful, if we lose by two runs then I'd say it didn't do any harm (not good, not bad)... if we lose by more than two runs, then I say it didn't matter and he ended up doing the right thing. If we win... well, let's not go that far!
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:00:43
189.   Steve
If Repko does something scrappy like bunting...
2005-06-03 22:01:53
190.   Albert in Hong Kong
Or swinging at two pitches in the dirt.
2005-06-03 22:02:35
191.   Xeifrank
I've missed quite a few innings of recent games. I have a question. Since moving to the bullpen, how many innings and appearances has Scott Erickson made? Thanks.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:02:45
192.   Steve
Yeah, I don't like crappy any more than I like scrappy. Repko and Werth and both frontrunning for the Billy Ashley Memorial Prize.
2005-06-03 22:03:03
193.   LAT
#186 Where in Ca you gonna practice? So or No or elsewhere?
2005-06-03 22:03:52
194.   Fearing Blue
#188: If we lose by a run, the decision isn't any worse. It's extremely unlikely we would have gotten three scoreless innings from our bullpen, considering the guys we would have seen (i.e. Erickson, who has allowed 2.25 ERs / 3 innings this year).
2005-06-03 22:04:35
195.   Steve
Los Angeles. I have a job with a firm downtown. My erstwhile partner in crime Jerry is also going down there, and we had planned on sharing season tickets, though I'm still under a pledge not to spend any money on the Dodgers after the bunt game.
2005-06-03 22:05:00
196.   Fearing Blue
#191: He's made 2 mop-up appearances spanning 4 innings. He's allowed 1 ER on a HR.
2005-06-03 22:05:18
197.   Eric L
Werth and Billy Ashley in the same sentence?
2005-06-03 22:05:32
198.   Xeifrank
194. Not much more unlikely than Weaver pitching three scoreless innings. Has Weaver ever pitched a scoreless 5th, 6th, 7th, all in one game this year?
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:05:57
199.   Steve
But it's extremely unlikely that we would have gotten three scoreless innings from Weaver. We just happened to get them.
2005-06-03 22:07:39
200.   Xeifrank
Bottom of the 8th is probably our best chance of scoring, considering who is coming up to the plate. LOOGY time!
vr, Xei
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2005-06-03 22:07:53
201.   Eric L
has Weaver ever pitched a scoreless 5th, 6th, 7th, all in one game this year?

This game says hello:

http://tinyurl.com/ayr99

2005-06-03 22:08:06
202.   Steve
197 -- just a joke. Werth is 0-3, 3 Ks, Repko 0-4, 2 Ks. Werth, like everyone else, is probably just rusty. (knocks on wood) But I sort of like the idea of a Billy Ashley Memorial Award. Though I already know who I would give it to.
2005-06-03 22:09:21
203.   Nagman
Unfortunately, Werth is likely going to have a critical AB sometime in the next two innings. I hope he can draw a walk.
2005-06-03 22:09:28
204.   Fearing Blue
#199: You're correct that you can't know. But, the fact that Weaver hadn't allowed a hit, had walked one and struck out two in the last 13 batters he faced was a pretty good sign.
2005-06-03 22:09:37
205.   Steve
SF -- eight scoreless
SD -- complete game shutout

So long ago...

2005-06-03 22:09:40
206.   Xeifrank
I think the strategy of playing for tomorrow is weak. You should base your managerial decisions on winning the game at hand within reason. Lifting Weaver for a pinch hitter with bases loaded in the 4th was within reason. Have we beat the horse to death yet? Lucky that Bob isn't here, he'd be up the wall by now.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:09:54
207.   Eric L
Have they had anyone worthy of the Billy Ashley award lately? It isn't like the Dodgers have had many hitting prospects lately.

Chin Feng Chen? Joe Thurston?

2005-06-03 22:10:40
208.   LAT
Which firm? I practice in a downtown firm. Got a couple of BYU attorneys.
2005-06-03 22:11:43
209.   Steve
Yeah, but each of his last eight starts was a pretty bad sign. I would prefer to be behind the curve on Jeff Weaver. After all the burnings and the ugliness, I'm willing to take it slow.
2005-06-03 22:11:46
210.   Fearing Blue
#198: This is the fourth time Weaver has pitched a scoreless 5th, 6th, and 7th out of 12 starts (4/7, 4/13, 5/13, and today).
2005-06-03 22:12:28
211.   Xeifrank
Yeah, but has he done it 5 times!!!! :)
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:13:40
212.   Steve
208 -- Kirkland & Ellis.

207 -- Jason Grabowski isn't really a prospect in the Billy Ashley mold, is he?

Carrara? You must be kidding me.

2005-06-03 22:14:41
213.   Fearing Blue
#206: The thing is, even if you're trying to maximize your chances of winning today (even though it was already down to 14%), leaving Weaver in is still the right move. Since you are the analytical type, Xei, I challenge you to show me math stating we would have a better chance of winning with Ledee / Edwards batting for Weaver and Erickson pitching at least the 5th and 6th.
2005-06-03 22:15:44
214.   Fearing Blue
#212: This is where Tracy frustrates me the most. We now have two relief pitchers, Brazoban and Gagne, who can only be brought in when we're tied or winning.
2005-06-03 22:15:59
215.   Xeifrank
Yeah, Carrara sucks, but what are the other options? Gagne can't pitch EVERY game. And Brazo hasn't exactly been lights out of late.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:17:03
216.   Xeifrank
213. Sorry, I have better things to do. Maybe someone else would like to take on your science project. :)
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:17:55
217.   Fearing Blue
#215: Brazoban is still better than Gagne and with the heart of our order up next inning, I'd rather see him in this situation.
2005-06-03 22:18:06
218.   Xeifrank
Game Over!
7 runs on 2 hits.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:18:22
219.   Albert in Hong Kong
By God.
2005-06-03 22:18:22
220.   Steve
FB, you're convincing me. Sort of. My hangup there is that you're looking at the win expectancy wrong. It wasn't "down" to 14%, it was "up" to 14% because we had the bases loaded. Without the bases loaded, it was likely down to 3%. There is no better place to use a pinch hitter. You and I have different beliefs in Weaver's abilities, so we'll just have to chalk that up to a difference in taste.

That was the most obvious homerun ever to be hit. Should I say it or should I leave it to XF?

2005-06-03 22:18:44
221.   Fearing Blue
#216: See.. this is what we would have seen in the 5th, 6th, and 7th. I hate our pitching staff.
2005-06-03 22:18:51
222.   Nagman
Umm, scratch that, there won't be any more critical at bats tonight.

Repko and Werth stay, Gio goes.

2005-06-03 22:18:55
223.   Xeifrank
Ok, now you can start thinking about tomorrows game.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:19:07
224.   LAT
New winning % = snowball's chance
2005-06-03 22:21:04
225.   Xeifrank
Game on the line, most important at bat of the game and opportunity knocks at Carrara's door. Knock! Knock! Nobody's home. But the lights are on.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:21:12
226.   Steve
But Weaver can do that just as easy as Carrara! They're the same lame pitcher! That's why you maximize offensive opportunities.
2005-06-03 22:21:38
227.   Fearing Blue
#220: Understood. A hit in that situation does change the win probability dramatically. I checked the expectancy finder and it's higher with the bases empty at 15.5% :). It's kind of silly since it's based on historicals. It really shouldn't be quoted in any reasonable sense, unless it supports your point in a silly argument.
2005-06-03 22:24:37
228.   Fearing Blue
#226: I agree if we were separating all of our pitchers into two buckets (good & crappy), Weaver and Carrara would both be in the second bucket. Unfortunately, with our staff, there's about 10 people in that second bucket, so we have to separate them even further (slightly crappy, moderately crappy, really crappy, and Erickson).
2005-06-03 22:24:57
229.   Christina
Didn't even take one inning for FB to be proven horribly right.
2005-06-03 22:25:15
230.   Xeifrank
A pinch hit single (hitting for Weaver in the 4th inning), would've raised our win expectancy by 27.7%. Not bad for one single at bat. I'd say it was worth pinch hitting for him, not knowing how he'd pitch in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:25:15
231.   Fearing Blue
Now we'll score 3 runs this inning.
2005-06-03 22:25:22
232.   JeffinTokyo
Remember in Bull Durham, when the manager asked Crash Davis what he could do to turn around the team's fortunes? Crash's answer was, "Scare 'em." The manager proceeded to barge into the shower area, throwing bats, and calling out the players for being "lollygaggers."

Right now, the Dodgers seem to have a lot of mental lolly-gaggers (fastballs down the middle) that could benefit from similar shock treatment.

2005-06-03 22:25:43
233.   Steve
227 -- Strange. I have no idea what any of that means. Bad pitcher + Bases Loaded = Bat for Pitcher. I'm a future lawyer, and we're scared of math.

Only one run charged to Carrara, so his ERA remains at a manageable 4.84. Likely no hope of shoving him overboard.

2005-06-03 22:26:35
234.   Xeifrank
Old Maid Signs can get us back to a two run deficit with a miracle home run.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:27:16
235.   Fearing Blue
#230: That's not a complete analysis since you're assuming that the pinch-hitter gets a hit and Weaver doesn't. In reality, Weaver gets a hit about 20% of the time and Ledee gets a hit about 30% of the time. Thus the expected increase in win expectancy by pinch-hitting is only 10% of 27.7% or 2.8%.
2005-06-03 22:27:36
236.   Nagman
Maybe with Gio's sparkling W-L record and his manageable ERA, we can find a taker.
2005-06-03 22:28:17
237.   LAT
If history is any lesson here we should get about one run max out of this situation.
2005-06-03 22:28:45
238.   Fearing Blue
Thanks for watching that one go down the pipe, Saenz.
2005-06-03 22:28:54
239.   Xeifrank
What was Old Maid thinking on that 3rd strike... "right down the pipe" - VS
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:30:08
240.   Steve
But doesn't the distinction actually get less important if you're down by three runs? I mean, at that point, you can't win anyway unless you score four more runs at some point during the game. If you give up a run or two more at the margins (and a pitcher with a 6 ERA and one with a 7 ERA are only marginally different -- sort of an offshoot of Jon's earlier point that bringing up a bunch of 5 ERA pitchers to replace a bunch of 7 ERA pitchers is not going to help), that's not going to make much difference (in most cases) - unless you can get your own runs across. Plus, of course, there's the fact that JT won't use Braz or Gagne in losing games unless he feels like it, and it turns out that tonight is one of those special everybody plays Little League nights.

Here comes the dive at the slider in the dirt.

2005-06-03 22:31:17
241.   LAT
Werth had an accident.
2005-06-03 22:32:25
242.   Xeifrank
#235. It's still too much of a gain in win expectancy either way, to be letting Weaver hit.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:32:37
243.   Fearing Blue
#233: My wife would agree that I should try to make sense occassionally. Let me try again.

The probabilities on the website I pointed to are not especially accurate since they're based on historicals. Thus, it was slightly disingenuous for me to quote figures from it to support my point.

2005-06-03 22:32:50
244.   Steve
235 -- but the marginal import of that 2.8% is more important to us, because we're down. In an economic sense, we're giving up more down the road to pick up the present value presented by the bases loaded situation. They weigh differently, do they not?
2005-06-03 22:35:28
245.   LAT
Tie game if Gio doesn't suck
2005-06-03 22:35:56
246.   Christina
Honestly, I find the expectancy finder to be so reactive it's worse than useless. Which is not to say that it's inaccurate per se, but it points up the very nature of baseball being a game where things can turn on a dime.

To wit, if baseball were the sort of game where you can reasonably well predict the outcome based on the first inning, an expectancy finder would be much more useful in a truly practical way. But instead, with every play, every situation, all the way to the end of the game, the expectancy finder changes all the damn time. One minute it's an 88% chance of winning, the next minute it's down to 12%. It works well enough for the ninth inning, I guess, but baseball is eight more innings.

And then there's the human factor. I believe in statistics, but they aren't the whole story, either. In this particular situation, the things the expectancy finder could not take into account were that after the first inning, Weaver had great stuff, while our middle relievers are sucky.

2005-06-03 22:35:58
247.   Fearing Blue
What would be really interesting (but very time consuming) would be to look at Weaver's pitch-by-pitch results to see how quickly it can be determined if it's good Weaver or bad Weaver. At the end of the game the discrepancy is stark based on the Ks, but if you could tell after 40 or 50 pitches, it could save us a lot of pain.
2005-06-03 22:36:02
248.   Xeifrank
Should we bring Lowe in to pinch hit? I mean it's only about a 10% difference in getting a hit between him and Phillips. :)
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:37:04
249.   JeffinTokyo
Gotta give the Dodgers credit for not quitting after the Gio-thermal meltdown.
2005-06-03 22:38:12
250.   Albert in Hong Kong
Ouch, fortunately, Phillips didnt take off his helmet.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2005-06-03 22:38:26
251.   Xeifrank
246. It's just telling you the probability based on past history. It's just a tool.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:38:54
252.   Steve
I'm not harping on this to be annoying, I'm genuinely trying to figure this out. I mean, if we don't score any more runs, then the marginal cost of any additional runs given up by Erickson/Carrara/Whoever over Weaver is actually zero, because you lose a game 2-1 or 12-1, you still lose the game. Does any of this 1) make sense and 2) if so, does the math exist?

Anyway, the topic on FJT tonight is going to be bringing in Carrara instead of Brazoban, which was ridiculous, because Carrara sucks.

Now that is taking one for the team.

2005-06-03 22:39:02
253.   LAT
This game keeps getting stranger and stranger. How does the expectency finder predict that run? Ouch right in the mellon.
2005-06-03 22:39:12
254.   JeffinTokyo
Wha happened? I'm lost based on the radio explanation.
2005-06-03 22:39:27
255.   Jim Hitchcock
This is just cruel.
2005-06-03 22:40:32
256.   Albert in Hong Kong
Phillips fouled out to the right, and Hall tried to throw Werth out who was tagging up, but it hit Phillips on the head. Weird play. Werth scored because of Jason's big head.
2005-06-03 22:41:02
257.   Xeifrank
252. That could be the topic almost every night.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:41:03
258.   Steve
Nobody to bat for Repko. Blah. You can swing 2-0. And you did.
2005-06-03 22:41:29
259.   Eric L
Steve - agree with you on the Carrara thing. Tracy seems to stick his head in the sand and stick with defined roles in the BP far too often.
2005-06-03 22:42:24
260.   JeffinTokyo
Thanks Albert. Figures as soon as JD starts hitting, Cesar goes cold.
2005-06-03 22:42:53
261.   Xeifrank
Kind of ironic that FSN was showing poker tonight and then TBDTS has Pete Rose on as it's guest immediately afterwards.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:43:17
262.   Steve
Now Brazoban is in. That is just ridiculous. He's done it again.
2005-06-03 22:43:27
263.   LAT
Vin: "The way this inning is going the Dodgers are far from out of it"

Next pitch ground out.

Thanks Vin

2005-06-03 22:43:56
264.   Steve
Anybody know Bob's cell phone number? I have some text messages to send him. :)
2005-06-03 22:44:20
265.   Xeifrank
Brazoban in in the 9th to put out the fire.
Oh wait, the fire was last inning.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:47:13
266.   LAT
Does Edward ph for repko?
2005-06-03 22:47:20
267.   Xeifrank
We need a manager who's philosophy is that "he doesn't believe in the save stat". Unfortunately, I know of no managers that use this philosophy. How hard could it be to find one. I'm sure some minor league manager somewhere is chomping at the bit. In the interview you tell him this is the way we want our games managed take it or leave it.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:47:56
268.   JeffinTokyo
I am with Xei and Steve. How can you possibly defend Tracy for not putting Yhency in the game 1/3 of an inning earlier? And this is not the first time he has made this mistake (this week)!
2005-06-03 22:47:57
269.   Fearing Blue
#244: Interesting question about the economics. I'm not sure how that would work. Perhaps if you could show that a team plays better when it's "in the game", then the 2.8% now could be more valuable. Otherwise, my belief is that two innings of Weaver vs. two innings of Erickson easily makes up for the 2.8%. I'd have to pull out my wife's statistics book to be sure.

To tie this thing up, it's probably not a bad decision either way (within the margin of error). Therefore, it shouldn't get categorized with some of Tracy's other gaffes. On the other hand, bringing in Carrara instead of Brazoban was likely a bad decision (in foresight and especially with 20/20 hindsight). It seems even stranger considering the intent was to bring in Brazoban in the 9th.

2005-06-03 22:48:27
270.   Steve
But Braz doesn't even get saves. Is he saving him for the hold?
2005-06-03 22:49:07
271.   Xeifrank
Knowing JT's tendancies, Edwards only bats if a lefty is pitching. I just hope it doesn't get to the point that Robles has to pinch hit for anybody. Man our bench is weak. I think Robles needs to go back to Mexico City.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:49:10
272.   Langhorne
But if Yhency had pitched in the 8th he wouldn't be in now because they pinched hit for Gio. I still think Yhency is who you go to with two on and two out. Let Gagne pitch the 9th. But that would be against Tracy's religion.
2005-06-03 22:49:50
273.   Jim Hitchcock
Bob's cell phone # is 562-NOT HOME.
2005-06-03 22:50:52
274.   LAT
Frank, Gagne is a phenom, in part because Tracy believes in the save. Now Gagne puts people in seats. Indeed, I can't think of any palyer that the network does not go to break for. They are going to protect Gagne. Not for baseball/single game reasons but as a commodity.
2005-06-03 22:51:38
275.   Xeifrank
Your 2.8% number is based solely on a single. What's Weaver's lifetime batting average and slugging percentage vs Pinch Hitter?
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:51:49
276.   Jim Hitchcock
Wow. Turnbow looks like a Bad News Bears graduate.
2005-06-03 22:52:14
277.   JeffinTokyo
.267 The problem goes beyond managers. Sadly, in this day and age, the egos of closers and their agents need to be addressed.

I would like to think that if Tracy's replacement came up to Gagne and said, "You are my #1 relief pitcher. That said, I may not always use you at the end of the game. I will use you when we need you the most. That could be anytime in the final 3 innings. Are you OK with that?"

What do you think would be Gag's (or any other closer's) reply?

2005-06-03 22:52:38
278.   Xeifrank
272. Double switch is always a possibility.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:53:10
279.   LAT
#276 Tanner
2005-06-03 22:53:39
280.   bigcpa
Isn't it possible that Tracy truly believes Carrara is a better option than Brazoban? Given his use of Ventura over Choi last September etc, clearly he puts a lot of value on experience over raw talent.
2005-06-03 22:53:53
281.   Xeifrank
277. You're the manager he's the player. He can take it or leave it. If Gagne didn't want to be a team player, then trade him.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:53:59
282.   Steve
269 -- it's the same pattern from the Angel game. Bring in Carrara to blow up the game, then use the better pitcher in the more irrelevant situation. We just happened to score 3 in the 8th to make Braz showing up a little bit better.

But I don't think you are saying what I'm saying. It doesn't really have anything to do with a team playing "in it." I'm just saying that a 2.8% (for sake of argument) increase in probability is more valuable for a team three runs down than three runs up, and particularly so in a world of imperfect information where the situation may not present itself again. It seemst that those situations, just like in the economic world, would have inherent value.

That was a terrible 0-2 pitch. Yikes. Thank you, Steroid Boy.

2005-06-03 22:54:42
283.   LAT
Frank, you owe Oscar an apology
2005-06-03 22:55:03
284.   Xeifrank
14.7% win expectancy with Drew up.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:55:05
285.   Xeifrank
14.7% win expectancy with Drew up.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:55:17
286.   Jim Hitchcock
Kelly always reminded me of a friend in little league who drilled a hole in his bat to put a cigarette in it.
2005-06-03 22:56:15
287.   Fearing Blue
#252: If it's later in the game, the analysis is easier. Since it's only the bottom of the 4th, you have to assume there's going to be additional scoring on both sides and somehow take that into account. The easiest method (which is what I did) is just to look at the ERAs of the two possible pitchers, but it's not a very complete. A more accurate method would take into account not only the average (ERA), but also the probabilistic distribution of runs allowed (e.g. Weaver may allow 0 runs 45% of the time, 1 run 15% of the time, etc.). It would also be good to take into account the quality of hitters coming to the plate. Once I learn how to do all that (probably sometime early next season), I'll follow up :).
2005-06-03 22:56:27
288.   LAT
Nice swing at ball 4
2005-06-03 22:56:52
289.   Linkmeister
I thought this game would be over by now, but I saw the Phillips beaning. Weird.
2005-06-03 22:57:34
290.   Xeifrank
Sorry Oscar. Perhaps he read my post while in the on deck circle. Se habla espanol.
vr,Xei
2005-06-03 22:58:05
291.   Steve
arrgghhhhhh...

Just.

Missed.

2005-06-03 22:58:11
292.   Jim Hitchcock
That hurt too much.
2005-06-03 22:58:27
293.   Xeifrank
Park factor kept the game from being tied on the Kent drive to CF.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 22:58:31
294.   LAT
Now that was cruel
2005-06-03 22:58:41
295.   Albert in Hong Kong
GEEEEZ.
2005-06-03 22:58:45
296.   Langhorne
278. A double switch would have been tough. Repko made the last out in the 7th and I don't think we have any outfielders left.
2005-06-03 22:59:52
297.   Linkmeister
Brewers now 1-9 in two-run games.

What a frustrating game.

2005-06-03 22:59:59
298.   Dodgers Fan in NorCal
Some hope when Kent touched that...
2005-06-03 23:00:03
299.   JeffinTokyo
2 swings = 7 runs = ballgame
2005-06-03 23:00:11
300.   Jim Hitchcock
That was a crusher. Off to watch Hotel Rwanda.
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2005-06-03 23:00:31
301.   Christina
287 - you nicely nailed my problem with the expectancy finder. It fails to take into account the innings yet to be played. As XF said to me earlier, it's just a tool...but one that I find to be completely inefficient in the early/middle innings for this reason.
2005-06-03 23:00:52
302.   Xeifrank
Double switches don't have to be for the last player who batted. 2nd to last, 3rd to last etc...
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 23:00:57
303.   LAT
frankly, I'm glad its over. I couldn't take much more. Back to 6 1/2. Steve and Blue, good luck I hope you get that math issue figured out. Good night, Irene
2005-06-03 23:00:57
304.   LAT
frankly, I'm glad its over. I couldn't take much more. Back to 6 1/2. Steve and Blue, good luck I hope you get that math issue figured out. Good night, Irene
2005-06-03 23:01:28
305.   Xeifrank
That was a fun game, lost by two. Can't wait to read the FJT blog.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 23:01:52
306.   Fearing Blue
#275: That's correct, because I didn't want to get too complex. Therefore, instead I underestimated for Weaver and overestimated for Ledee. A complete analysis would take into account every possible transition, though my guess is the result wouldn't be far off the original 2.8%. Weaver's lifetime stats are .224/.231/.284. Ledee's lifetime stats are .244/.329/.413. So, the likelihoods of a single are about the same, but Ledee has a higher chance of getting an extra-base hit.
2005-06-03 23:02:40
307.   Xeifrank
300+ posts. I hope we made Jon proud. Hope Jon is feeling better.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 23:03:54
308.   Jim Hitchcock
Any contributions to send Bob to some games in San Diego?
2005-06-03 23:04:12
309.   Xeifrank
306. I may have missed something, but why are we assuming the pinch hitter would've been Ledee? when Choi was also available.
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 23:07:12
310.   Fearing Blue
#282: Sorry, I misunderstood. You are correct that a run down three is worth more than a run up three. The two most valuable runs from a win probability perspective during any inning are the one that ties the score and the one that gives you a one run lead. Those two runs are equally valuable (if you're the home team), and each step you move further away (i.e. up by one or down by two) decreases the value of an incremental run.
2005-06-03 23:09:10
311.   Fearing Blue
#309: Not sure, but it probably has something to do with Tracy hating Choi :).
2005-06-03 23:11:15
312.   Steve
287 -- but you're still not really there, because you're still not taking into account (and maybe you shouldn't, but you seem to be suggesting that you're agreeing with me, so I'll just go with it a bit farther) that while the difference in ERA (or run distribution or whatever) between Weaver and Erickson is 1.80 over 9 innings, the marginal difference, as far as the Dodgers is concerned, is not as important as the difference between Weaver and Ledee (or Edwards or Choi or whoever -- not like we had a lot of RHP to choose from), because that difference between Weaver and Erickson makes no difference to the Dodgers unless and until the Dodgers score four more runs and take the lead (or at least three to prolong the game indefinitely and avoid losing). It seems like that sort of consideration does in fact exist, and is "valuable" -- like money is more valuable now than it will be in the future.
2005-06-03 23:12:07
313.   Xeifrank
What's the pitch count for Houlton tomorrow?
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 23:13:20
314.   Steve
310 -- yes, I think that's part of what I'm getting at.
2005-06-03 23:20:04
315.   Fearing Blue
#310: I reread your question and I still don't think I answered it. Somehow you need to balance optimizing for a lead now vs. a lead at the end of the game. I think that's why a complete analysis needs to look at variance instead of just averages. For example, if there was a 99% chance of scoring one run or less the rest of the game, you'd obviously choose to pinch hit in that situation. Essentially, the variances provide you the probability that you'll get a future opportunity.
2005-06-03 23:22:56
316.   Fearing Blue
#315: My assumption is that at the beginning of the game averages should dominate the decision-making and towards the end of the game variance or run distribution should dominate the decision-making. In the bottom of the 4th, it's probably a good mix of both.
2005-06-03 23:24:58
317.   Steve
Well, something to chew over the numbers crunchers out there. I don't think much of Mahomes or Rupe (well, relatively speaking, I think a lot of them, but you know what I mean), but I wonder if either of them might solve the Carrara Problem in the short term. But he has to go. Maybe even before Erickson -- at least Tracy is bright enough not to use Erickson in situations like that.
2005-06-03 23:25:39
318.   Fearing Blue
#313: I've read that he's going to be allowed to throw between 70 and 85 pitches.
2005-06-03 23:33:07
319.   Fearing Blue
#317: Carrara is a better pitcher than either of those two (based on career major league performance), but I agree that Tracy wields him like a baby with a butcher knife.
2005-06-03 23:34:34
320.   Xeifrank
313. Thanks.

317. I think both Erickson and Carrara need to go, and Houlton if he doesn't pitch well as a starter. I would bring up Jackson and put him in the pen, atleast he has the stuff to strike people out. I'd probably bring up another prospect to take Erickson/Houlton's spot in the rotation. I would lean towards Billingsley, but would also settle for rotating some other minor leaguers thru that spot. I'm not saying it would work, but if it's broke you gotta atleast try something. I think the first step is to try to fix this thing from within the organization, and if that's impossible then you make a trade or two. If you wait too long and find yourself 10-15 games out of both the division and wild-card then it's probably too late to improve via trade, and more likely to become a seller.
vr, Xei

2005-06-03 23:39:59
321.   Bob Timmermann
Aren't you folks glad that friends invited me to dinner tomorrow so I can't go to the game?

I'm 1-4 this year. Weaver is 0-2 with a no decision.

The only win was the home opener. I think I have been touched by the Curse of Jason Ellison.

I have seen Kelly Wunsch pitch three times.
Once against Luis Gonzalez, which was a 2-run RBI.
Once against Steve Finley, which was a 2-run RBI.
Once against Lyle Overbay, which was a single that led to a 3-run home run.

Jeff Weaver has given up 9 runs in the first inning of three games I've seen.

On the other hand, DJ Houlton has tossed three scoreless in games I've been to.

Next up for me is a week from Saturday against Minnesota. I'll probably get to see something like DJ Houlton or Scott Erickson against Johan Santana. That will be Hollywood Stars Night. They are advertising Carson Daly's presence.

That's a sign of the Apocalypse.

2005-06-03 23:45:59
322.   Xeifrank
Welcome back Bob. Did you receive any text messages from Steve tonight? :)
vr, Xei
2005-06-03 23:48:29
323.   Bob Timmermann
My phone was pretty quiet.

I bought a nice seat. Section 146 in the Loge, under the overhang so I was out of beer spilling and peanut shell tossing range.

I can now add to the list of things I've never seen until this year: a player throwing his glove at a ball, and the second baseman hitting the batter in the head with a throw after a foul out.

2005-06-03 23:57:32
324.   Jim Hitchcock
Not to rub it in...but you were 1-4 the other night. You're now 1-5 :)
2005-06-04 00:17:13
325.   Bob Timmermann
That's right, I am 1-5! And at Anaheim I'm 0-1.
2005-06-04 10:30:15
326.   Bob Timmermann
Meanwhile the Brewers are now 1-9 in 2-run games thanks to Bill Hall.

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