If you're not interested in the thread below ...

An Experiment

Continue reading...

Tonight's Game

* * *

Schoolteacher Ken Aven invites you to check out his first novel, Chavez Ravine Echoes. Here's the description:

Hidden beneath the vast acreage of Dodger Stadium's parking lot is an almost forgotten Mexican/American community that once thrived in the area known as Chavez Ravine. A journey to uncover the culture and vibrancy of the displaced community is embarked upon after a late night serendipitous meeting between Dodger third baseman, Joe Shapiro, and Dodger marketing assistant, Liz Reyes. Using diary pages from a young 1950s Chavez Ravine inhabitant to guide them, Shapiro and Reyes's fictionalized voyage of discovery will bring to life the fascinating truths of Chavez Ravine and the forces that conspired to destroy the community.

Former Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta has joined the Padres as Special Assistant for Baseball Operations, reporting to CEO Sandy Alderson. Thanks to reader DaveP for the link.

I can only imagine the reactions coursing through the veins of different Dodger fans. Yikes. Hope everyone stays cool. It's a new horse, so let's not beat the dead one.

I will note that the hiring reunites DePodesta with Dave Roberts!

Power-hitting 2006 Dodger draft pick Andy D'Alessio will not be signing with the team, he told Derek Redd of the Anderson Independent-Mail:

D'Alessio, Clemson University's junior ABCA second-team All-American first baseman and a 10th-round pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers, has decided not to sign with Los Angeles and return to Clemson for his senior year.

The way the sentence is constructed, it sounds like he's giving up the Dodgers and college. But the bottom line is, he's not going to L.A.

More:

The money Los Angeles offered was not enough to entice him to sign, D'Alessio said. He had hoped for a $100,000 signing bonus, but the Dodgers offered $60,000, a number much lower than what was offered by the Cincinnati Reds when they chose D'Alessio in the 10th round after D'Alessio's senior year at Barron Collier.

D'Alessio knows his bargaining power will take a hit as a senior signee, but he said the money he'll be offered as a senior won't be much less that what he was offered this year. And the prospect of finishing his degree in business management tantalized him.

I can respect that.

* * *

Longtime sportswriter Lewis Leader presents a 25-man roster of those who have played for both the Dodgers and Angels in this freelance piece for the Times.

They've shared or competed for the affections of Southern Californians since 1961, coexisted in the same stadium — one calling it Dodger Stadium and the other Chavez Ravine — from 1962 through 1965, and, again, jointly use the prefix Los Angeles.

Included are numerous pitchers and outfielders who had solid careers with each club, but few middle infielders. In forming a squad of 25 who performed with both teams, the first criterion was that each member had some significant role with each team. That wasn't always possible, however, and personal favorites soon came into play. ...

Jeff Weaver did not make the team.

A pitcher having about as bad a season as Odalis Perez is about to be made available. You might have heard of him. From Mark Saxon of the Register:

The team plans to bring up rookie pitcher Jered Weaver from Triple-A Salt Lake after a two-week demotion and to designate his brother, Jeff, for assignment - a move likely to take place today.

Jered Weaver likely will pitch Monday or Tuesday in Seattle. The Angels tried to trade his older brother for weeks but found no teams willing to pay a pitcher with a 3-10 record and 6.29 ERA that much money. The story will be different if the Angels pay his salary. They might at least get a prospect in the deal.

(I should caution that the report has no on-the-record source.)

Thoughts:

1) Doesn't this have sort of an East of Eden quality to it? Or am I stretching? Which actor plays Jeff Weaver in the remake?

2) Weaver had two problems pitching for the Dodgers last year that no longer exist. The first was Jim Tracy, who would leave Weaver in too long and not back him up soon enough with the bullpen. (Little, for all his Pedro reputation and all the struggles of the Dodger bullpen, is mostly aggressive with pulling a starter.) The second was Weaver and agent Scott Boras' expectation that Weaver deserved a rich, multiyear contract.

3) An Aaron Sele-like no-harm flyer on Weaver would be a good experiment. It would be worth a shot to see if Weaver can return to the level he showed with the Dodgers at his best, at the risk of finding out he will pitch as poorly as Perez has.

4) A Mark Hendrickson-like lose-a-prospect flyer on Weaver is not worth the trouble. I'd rather take the risk of Weaver pitching well elsewhere than the risk of a Dodger farmhand playing well elsewhere. (Obviously, Jason Romano-caliber prospects don't figure into this.)

Here are Dodger general manager Ned Colletti's latest remarks on the future, filtered through Bill Plunkett of the Register:

The performance of players such as (Russell) Martin, (Matt) Kemp, (Andre) Ethier and (Chad) Billingsley in the big leagues this year only has confirmed their value to the Dodgers, Colletti said. Parting with them is something he has become increasingly reluctant to do.

"I'm still walking that balancing act. It's not easy, and a lot of teams don't even try. I'm inclined to give it a try and stay with the young kids."

* * *

"Wow! A fresh cup of coffee in 60 seconds. Not bad. Not bad at all."

- Kemp's reaction upon receiving a coffee machine as a gift (quote from Allison Ann Otto of the Press-Enterprise).

Ah, the childlike wonder of potential ad spokesmen.

Wednesday was the first day in my memory that I read all the comments on Dodger Thoughts as they passed but didn't participate once. The primary reason was that I was a bit burned out from the previous day's discussion on the Mark Hendrickson trade, which many of us found worth examining to a degree beyond its importance to the Dodgers' immediate fortunes. Sort of the way we examine the Dodgers to a degree beyond their importance to our living and breathing. We just do.

As the day went on, there were a couple of places where I felt I could jump in and say something without it sending me to bed with a cold compress on my forehead, but each time I was on the verge, I found myself in love with the idea of continuing my fast. Many times, comments are like Lay's potato chips and you can't stop at one.

So instead, I silently digested another Dodger wipeout at the hands of an American League team, digested Odalis Perez's latest outing, digested Cesar Izturis' OPS finding its home below .700. I rooted for the Dodgers to make a game of it - just make a game of it - and Olmedo Saenz heard me with his three-run double.

My father-in-law, a Mets fan, made a joke about which one of us will be unhappier reading the papers following Wednesday's games. I courtesy laughed. Clearly, I would be unhappier, given that his team is in first place by a lot.

I watched the bottom of the first inning of the morning's game on TiVo after the kids were in bed and decided that Perez probably couldn't reach the infield grounder that set up Minnesota's grand slam, no matter how much effort he might have made. All along, I thought about writing something, but I never did.

For my first three decades as a Dodger fan, that's pretty much how it went. I would have mostly an interior dialogue. Dodger Thoughts came about when I saw an opportunity to stop talking to myself all the time. While there hasn't been a day that has gone by when I haven't been grateful that outlet, Wednesday was nicely nostalgic, nicely peaceful. It was nice to have some alone time.

And today, the Dodgers are still the Dodgers.

Rich Lederer, Baseball Analysts:

I couldn't play baseball. I couldn't ride my bike. I couldn't even run. Well, now that I think about it, I really never could run all that well anyway. To wit, my high school coach used to time me running from home to first with a calendar. I can hear him now, "January, February, March, April..." I wasn't all that bad. I mean, I don't think I ever made it into May. Mickey Mantle could run to first base in 3.1 seconds. I could run to first base in 3.1 months. But the Mick could only do that hitting from the left side. I had the disadvantage of being a right-handed hitter.

What's a 13-year-old boy, who has no clue about girls, to do in his summer between seventh and eighth grades when he can't play his favorite sport and is mostly confined to home? ...

* * *

Today's 10 a.m. Game

Odalis Perez pitching in the Central time zone on a weekday morning. Brings back memories ...

Dodger manager Grady Little told Bill Shaikin of the Times that he doesn't anticipate leaving Perez in the rotation after today.

"We've been down that road enough," Manager Grady Little said. "I think he's valuable for us in the bullpen."

But, you know, things change. Except with Russell Martin. Martin is the designated hitter today - but batting last, of course. It's not a big deal, but keeping Martin at the bottom of the order seems to represent the often flexible Little at his most rigid.

Sandy Alomar Jr. is starting at catcher, probably for the last time in a long while. Hmm, and J.D. Drew and Nomar Garciaparra are on the bench against Twins duplicate ace Johan Santana.

In Wednesday's papers, there will be stories about the Mark Hendrickson-Toby Hall acquisition. Reporters will have quotes in the story analyzing the deal.

Though it deviates from common practice, they should talk to at least one statistical expert for analysis of the trade. Not me, but someone from Baseball Prospectus or The Hardball Times or the like. Not in place of talking to players, managers, general managers or scouts. Not at all. But just to have that voice in the discussion. Even if it's a minority voice, they should help let the information out.

(To be fair, since I haven't done so in my reports on the trade, I'll get a quote from a baseball insider if I'm able.)

Statistics, whether they are simple as ERA or more complex, are going to appear in all the articles. Let someone who really knows their stuff talk about them, just as those who really know the game between the lines talk about that. There are insights to be had. Really, that's a good thing! Analysts may be raving, but they're not necessarily mad.

Most of us know that baseball doesn't have to choose sides between scouts and stats - and that, in fact, some form of statistics is part of baseball tradition. Let's take the opportunity to make the reviews of today's trade a place where we can have a more complete picture. The readers can dismiss what they don't value, but at least give them a chance to see the stuff.

Having a quote from a baseball stats expert does not mean the end of humanity.

* * *

Tonight's Game

Tough opposing pitcher tonight in Francisco Liriano (2.17 ERA) - Dodger fans will have to hope that stats don't tell the story for one night. Coincidentally, Liriano was traded away by the Giants when Ned Colletti was assistant general manager. I'm not pinning Colletti with the crime - I just thought the timing was funny, coming on the day that a Dodger prospect was traded.

My very best thoughts go to ESPN's Peter Gammons, who has been stricken with a brain aneurysm, his colleague Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe reports.

You can comment at The Griddle, but I just wanted to send my best wishes here.

The Dodgers have officially used struggling pitcher Jae Seo to trade for an older pitcher whose credentials are worse than Seo's.

The fear about acquiring Seo was that his 2005 performance was a fluke. As my previous post (below) illustrates, there should be an even greater fear that Mark Hendrickson's 2006 performance is the same.

In the meantime, trading catcher Dioner Navarro for catcher Toby Hall is a clear damning of Navarro's future by the Dodgers. Though he perhaps will give Dodger manager Grady Little the confidence to rest Russell Martin an extra day each week, Toby Hall isn't a win-now or win-for-the-future player. No backup catcher is. Maybe Navarro deserves that evaluation, but I think there's considerable doubt, considering how much time he has to develop.

On top of it all, the Dodgers have taken on additional salary (although they are getting some cash from Tampa Bay) and are throwing in a player to be named later. The transaction just doesn't make sense to me.

Dodger general manager Ned Colletti's best work on the pitching staff have been the acquisitions of players who didn't look that hot - Aaron Sele and Takashi Saito. The favorable return was unlikely, but investment was appropriate. He seems to do better when staying away from the flavor of the month, which is all Hendrickson appears to be.

* * *

The Dodgers also announced that Brett Tomko is going onto the disabled list. For now, Hall will join the Dodgers and give them three catchers - meaning that Sandy Alomar, Jr. becomes a de facto pinch-hitting specialist.

* * *

Update: Hendrickson currently has the lowest percentage of line drives allowed in baseball, according to the Hardball Times. According to Dodger Thoughts commenter Regfairfield, who writes the blog Dodger Math, line-drive percentage tends to fluctuate due to luck. As Hendrickson's line-drive percentage regresses to the angry (the term I'm using because I'm tired of saying "regresses to the mean"), the number of hits he allows will rise, because line drives tend to be converted into hits more often than any other type of ball in play.

Tom Meagher, who used to write the sharp baseball blog, The Fourth Outfielder, elaborates:

"No, it's not something he will keep up," Meagher said. "In fact, it's kind of a sign of a stronger collapse to come. Pitchers do not wake up one morning with the ability to keep batters from hitting line drives. In terms of persistence of skill, LD% is at the bottom with HR/Fly, behind K, BB, and G/F. While the fluctuation Hendrickson is seeing is at the extreme, it is just fluctuation. ...

"Now, I don't mean to imply that it is impossible that Hendrickson has made some major change and that his pitching has improved considerably this year because of a change in his skills. It's not just his LD% that's down, he's also getting more Ks and BBs this season, so one could look at his line and decide that he's changed. However, to do so requires a great deal of naivete and wishful thinking. If he truly had made a significant change - had added velocity, came up with a new pitch - then we might assume there was a reason for the change in his line. But I've heard nothing about that being the case, and the team who would know best whether it was true is the one that just sent him packing. ...

"Performance fluctuates greatly all the time, and the fact that a perfect storm of fluctuations away from his career norms has only yielded Hendrickson a 3.81 ERA should be disquieting enough."

Many folks this morning are talking about a rumored trade for Tampa Bay pitcher Mark Hendrickson. I'll break my rule about talking about rumors to just say this much.

As a pitcher, Hendrickson is soaring ... like a man in a barrel at the top of Niagra Falls.

The 6-foot-9 former basketball player is 32 and coming off three seasons where his ERA was below average. His career ERA over 646 1/3 innings is 5.01. Last season, he had a year worthy of the current starting pitchers the Dodgers would have him replace: a 5.90 ERA (73 ERA+), with 14 baserunners per nine innings against 4.5 strikeouts.

In 2006, Hendrickson's ERA is down to 3.81. This career-defying performance through 90 innings is predicated on a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) allowed of .258 - the 12th-lowest of any pitcher in baseball with more than 70 innings. He's had just about as many balls in play, striking out 5.1 batters per nine innings, but thanks to more balls finding gloves, Hendrickson has reduced his baserunners per nine innings to 12.

Now, you can all that luck or skill if you want, but this is the very best Hendrickson can do - and it isn't that spectacular. And it's tenuous. Last year, Hendrickson's BABIP allowed was .329. The year before, it was .300. Unless Hendrickson has truly mastered the game during the past offseason, somewhere in between last year and this year is the real Hendrickson.

One thing Hendrickson might have going for him is that it would be an easier road in the National League West than the American League East. But Hendrickson's former Devil Ray teammates, Danys Baez and Lance Carter, don't provide much support for that argument.

You never really know who's going to work out and who's not. I've almost been as wrong about the starting pitching this year as Ned Colletti. I didn't predict Jae Seo and Odalis Perez would struggle so much. I think I was right about Brett Tomko being mediocre, but I've been wrong about Aaron Sele (so far).

If there's a lesson here, though, it is not to trust the most recent 13 starts of a veteran pitcher. I understand the frustration with the Dodger starting pitching and the imperative to do better, but essentially you've got Perez and Seo at their worst and Hendrickson at his best. Should we assume they will stay that way - given that Perez, Seo and Hendrickson are all perfect illustrations of how much mediocre pitchers fluctuate in performance, of how unreliable recent history is? (Odalis Perez has gone from 4.56 ERA/.292 BABIP in 2005 to 6.33 ERA/.388 BABIP in 2006. He's done a reverse 2006 Hendrickson, or, if you prefer, he's approximated what Hendrickson did from 2004 to 2005.)

A reasonable hope for Hendrickson is that he would come here and give you a 4.00 ERA over six or seven innings. Think about that. That's the hope.

There's no actual trade for Hendrickson for me to write about, but he was worth discussing. There is a price that he'd be worth, but beware of fool's gold.

* * *

Tom Hoffarth of the Daily News blogs a nice obituary for the inventor of the Dodger Dog, Tom Arthur, complete with recollections from former Dodger owner Peter O'Malley.

"The Dodger Dog was definitely his idea; he deserves all the credit," said O'Malley. "It worked out all the details about the extra long casings with the Clougherty family at Farmer John, and they brought it to us one day and asked if they could try an extra-long hot dog.

"We said, sure, try it out. Everyone respected his judgment, and we respected him since the late '50s, when he was doing the concessions for us at the Coliseum. There was no harm in trying it out. And it was a hit from the start."

There seems to be some question about what year the Dodger Dog was introduced. Hoping to get an update.

Update: Hoffarth passes along the news that Dodger team historian Mark Langill pegs the debut of the Dodger Dog to the 1970s:

... the first references to Dodger Dogs in the game programs were in 1970 - the first year Peter O'Malley took over as team president. A hot dog at the stadium could have been unofficially called a "Dodger Dog" without it necessarily being the longer version. A program ad for Farmer John has the tagline: "Try the Dodger Dogs at the Stadium."

* * *

A letter:

Jon -

-Nick C., 16, Sherman Oaks

Sometimes I pitch column ideas to SI.com; sometimes my editor pitched ideas to me. The first time I did an Eric Gagne story for SI.com was my idea, but I found it interesting that only two months later, I was asked to revisit Gagne and look ahead at the Dodgers' future with or without him ...

The memory of Eric Gagne entering a ballgame is one of the most profound that fans of the Los Angeles Dodgers have.

Right now, that's what Gagne is -- a memory, threateningly fleeting.

The entrance from the Dodger Stadium bullpen that made men rise and women dance. The whip of his first pitch that made them all swoon. Bigger than the Oscars, big like a California earthquake, Gagne was a rapid heartbeat for the masses.

But fan favorites have no small history of meeting a banal end with the Dodgers. The franchise allowed Steve Garvey to leave as a free agent, let Kirk Gibson go two Octobers after his World Series glory and released Fernando Valenzuela in Spring Training. Mike Piazza? Don't ask.

Today, 20 months removed from winning the 2004 National League Cy Young Award, Gagne might prove no exception. He's going to try -- as soon as this week if, as he hopes, the nerve pain in his throwing arm is completely gone -- to begin a workout program that will have him back on the mound in July. Neither Gagne's talent nor determination guarantees he will be able to pitch for any significant duration this season. And nothing guarantees Gagne will wear a Dodger uniform in 2007. ...

In other news, surgery is not scheduled for Dodger prospect Andy La Roche, according to Baseball America. LaRoche had been diagnosed with a slight labrum tear earlier this month, but BA writes that he's back on a throwing program.

"He threw Saturday and he threw today and feels OK," Dodgers scouting director Logan White said on Sunday. "It's just now where he's throwing with no pain, though he hasn't really aired it out yet. So we'll see, but we're pleased with the way he's responded."

LaRoche has been hitting off a tee and took some live batting practice over the weekend while the team was in Tucson.

Thanks to Dodger Thoughts reader ToyCannon for passing along the report.

* * *

Today's Game

Today's Game

The nerve pain in Dodger reliever Eric Gagne's throwing arm has diminished over the past four days thanks to the use of neurontin, a drug designed to work on the nervous system, according to Dodger head athletic trainer Stan Johnston.

"He's improving," Johnston said during a pre-Dodger Thoughts Night Out interview Friday. "We're waiting for him to have no pain."

Gagne seconded Johnston on both counts, saying that he is feeling better but that he knows he has to take his time.

"(I) want to make sure everything's fine, and everything's clean in there," Gagne said.

Johnston suggested that Gagne could begin an exercise program as soon as Monday if the pain is gone. The Dodgers say that Gagne's arm is structurally sound, and the nerve issue is the only thing preventing Gagne from returning to the mound. In April, Gagne had a nerve in his right arm removed after complaining of pain during the first week of the 2006 season - his second surgery on the arm inside of 12 months.

Gagne said that he felt a little stiffness warming up in the bullpen before his last game June 6, but that it was nothing that he hadn't felt in the past when he was healthy. But he thinks that when he entered the game, he overthrew a changeup - "rolled it over too much" - and tweaked the nerve. Subsequent treatment with anti-inflammatories did not help.

"It got better and we started some exercises, then it got sore again," Johnston said.

The switch to neurontin seems to have brought renewed optimism, however cautious. If the progress continues, Gagne can resume exercises before moving forward, according to Johnston.

Gagne added that he isn't sure that a rehabilitation assignment in AAA Las Vegas will be necessary, and that he could be on the Dodger Stadium mound in July.

"It's not a bad injury," Gagne said. "It's just a nagging injury."

Still, it has been a long, impatient road for Gagne, whose injury spiral began in March 2005 when he injured his knee during a Spring Training pepper drill. When asked how Gagne has handled his time on the sidelines, Johnston said sympathetically, "not very well."

"He's very frustrated," Johnston said. "He's such a competitor. He lives to be a big part of the team."

Interviewing Gagne, it was easy to be swayed by the feeling that he knows his body, that he will be as patient during this rehabilitation as he says, that he will warm up as carefully in the future as he promises and ultimately, that he's right to believe he will help the Dodgers this season. Walking away, it was hard not to feel paranoid that preventing further injury was beyond his control.

Can he really be on the mend? Why couldn't he be on the mend? Fool me once and all that.

The implication was that further rest after Gagne's pain disappeared was unneccessary, but the question I didn't ask is whether that is a certainty.

Overall, Gagne and Johnston seemed quite humbled by the struggle.

* * *

Tonight's Game

For our first offline get-together, could we have asked for much more than an easy victory, an opposing pitcher that was ineffective long past the point of reason, a visit to our cheap seats from Dodger public relations director Josh Rawitch, continued excellence from Cesar Izturis at third base to humble the host, and an all-around good time had by friends of Dodger Thoughts and friends of friends of Dodger Thoughts?

Update: Photo Album 1 (ToyCannon)

Photo Album 2 (Scareduck)

Give or take 970 ...

We'll be somewhere in the vicinity of Aisle 12, row FF in the Reserved Level if you happen to be there ... and be sure to look for us on TV! We'll be the people indistinguishable from the other people.

Tonight's Game

... and then it aches.

Jayson Werth's sister, UCLA freshman heptathlete Hillary Werth, missed the indoor track season with leg problems and had surgery Wednesday, according to Robert Burns of the State Journal-Register of Springfield, Illinois.

Werth was able to compete in the javelin and shot put in the outdoor season before having her operation. Burns wrote that she has struggled with injuries for more than a year now.

Werth suffered multiple stress fractures in her foot that ended her high school career in April of 2005 after winning both hurdles races at the Spartan Invitational.

"My body is a little beat up right now," she said. "But when I first got out there, they told me that I would be running around."

Werth said she usually spent every weekend with her brother, the Dodger outfielder whose return date from wrist problems is still to be determined.

The notion that Adrian Beltre only performs well when he is motivated is absurd.

The idea that he wasn't motivated during the times in his career that he has slumped is absurd.

The idea that he can turn it on and suddenly excel at the theoretical moment he becomes motivated is absurd.

Beltre struggles to maintain his best level of performance, for whatever reason. He falls into bad habits. For all the theories about Tyler Houston, bone spurs, drugs, Dodger Stadium and ennui, we don't really know why this is.

It's more than plausible - it's realistic - that Beltre has moments of high focus and motivation when he can't hit a lick, and moments when without even thinking about it, the game comes easy like Sunday morning.

If you care to, show me how you know that Beltre didn't care about his performance in 2005 with Seattle. Because everyone with the Mariners that I know of says the guy was working his butt off.

Too many times, we assign pop psychology or knee-jerk explanations without merit. We should aspire to do better than that - whether or not we're motivated to.

* * *

Tonight's Game

Get a high-resolution snapshot of baseball's top rookies via Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts. Several Dodgers are part of the ensemble cast.

In the meantime, I'm voting for a cooling-off period on discussion of the Dodger pitching. You don't have to comply, but that's where I'm at.

And ... exhale.

* * *

While you're exhaling, you can mull over this contest at Monster.com in which you can win a trip for two to the All-Star Game with on-field press credentials, $2,000 and most extravagantly, your own blog!

* * *

Update: Admittedly, he's writing from inside the organization, but Josh Rawitch expresses on Inside the Dodgers some of what I'm feeling today.

I know I haven't posted very often after games, but before I leave the stadium, I think it's important to let the fans know that we all share your frustration and continue to work towards improving the team. The biggest thing that I try to remember during losing streaks is that they are bound to happen during the course of a long season. That doesn't make them any easier to take, but as most of you will remember, we had lost five in a row heading into that Cinco de Mayo game and then became the hottest team in baseball. It's happened before and it can happen again. ...

I know my job is to stay positive, but hopefully it will rub off some of the readers. The key really is to not get too down when we're losing and not get too far ahead of ourselves when we're winning.

I will break my silence on the pitching just long enough to say that I wondered this morning why eight innings of shutout relief by the Dodgers had to be wasted in a single loss Saturday, when just a fraction of them would have come in so handy Wednesday. But overall, while many of us worry about what mistakes the team might make in its efforts to improve itself, I'm just in the mood to relax about it.

Earlier this year, in my SI.com article on different systems for evaluating defense, I included John Dewan's Plus/Minus system, which is the centerpiece of his book, The Fielding Bible. Today, Dewan offered me a midseason update on some Dodger fielders.

To refresh or initiate your memory, the Plus/Minus system charts the distance, speed and type of every major league batted ball, computes how often each type of ball is converted into an out, then calculates how many plays that each individual player makes relative to the average glover.

"The most interesting Dodgers' angle that has come out of our early season look at the Plus/Minus system is that Nomar Garciaparra has gotten off to a good start defensively," Dewan said. "In his short time at first base, he's already a +6 thus far this season. This is not entirely surprising given that he's spent his career as an infielder, and primarily as a shortstop, the most important defensive position on the field."

Last year's major league leader at first base, Mark Teixeira, was +17 for the season. Carlos Delgado brought up the rear at -23.

"Nothing else on the team looks out of the norm (Kent -3, Lofton -1, for example)," Dewan added. "The No. 3 right fielder over the last three years in the plus/minus system is J.D. Drew (+25 from 2003-2005). He is off to a good start again at +9."

Drew achieved his +25 in 1,966 innings. By comparison, Ichiro Suzuki leads right fielders from 2003-2005 with a +48, but in 4,160 innings.

Dewan's information is proprietary, so I couldn't get numbers for the entire team. But since Willy Aybar has been in the news recently, I batted my little eyelashes to see if I could persuade Dewan to give me Aybar's fielding numbers for the year. Dewan took the bait.

"Aybar is +2 at third base in limited exposure," Dewan said. "Frankly, it's too small a sample size to make anything from this. But it's nice to know it's not -15 or something really bad."

Dewan said that in his short time with the Dodgers this year, Bill Mueller was -2 at third base.

Finally, many people are wondering about whether Rafael Furcal is a better defensive shortstop than Cesar Izturis. From 2003-2005, Furcal is +38 (3,790 innings) and Izturis is +33 (3,669 innings), thanks largely to Furcal picking up a +26 (1,306 innings) compared to Izturis' +4 (918 innings) in 2005. Basically, both are considered to be among the top fielding shortstops in baseball, which makes Furcal's run of errors this year either misleading or perplexing.

* * *

Vinny really tsks: Do you really want to be the guy that Vin Scully decides to sue? From CBS.

Los Angeles Dodgers announcer Vin Scully and his wife, Sandra, are suing a contractor, alleging their Thousand Oaks home was damaged because of shoddy work during construction of a second-story deck.

The Scullys are seeking unspecified compensatory and punitive damages. ...

The story goes on to describe the involvement of one Joe Kent. Not Jeff Kent, Joe Kent. That could have been really interesting.

* * *

Bob Smizik of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has caught on to former Dodger manager Jim Tracy's humility deficit.

For almost 40 years, dating to Danny Murtaugh, Pirates managers have been low-key men who were long on humility. The last thing they wanted was credit for success. That goes for Murtaugh, Bill Virdon, Chuck Tanner, Jim Leyland, Gene Lamont and Lloyd McClendon.

That might be true, but did Tracy have to spell it out in such a self-promotional manner? Besides, it's not as if he has a history of injury-free rotations. In his five seasons as manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, he averaged 10 starters per season. ...

There's more - including Smizik's description of a Tracy "brain cramp" the same night Tracy sold out Pittsburgh shortstop Jack Wilson for not making a tough play.

* * *

Tonight's Game

Vin Scully expressed some exasperation - which is so rare that it's always news - at the Dodgers swinging too often at the first pitch lately. As usual, he's justified. Scully obviously doesn't think there's no occasion for jumping on the first pitch, but you can tell he thinks the Dodgers have become too impatient.

"It's amazing - absolutely amazing," Scully said after when Matt Kemp grounded out on the first pitch with the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the fifth inning Tuesday.

I get a little impatient when people automatically criticize hitters for swinging at the first pitch, but yeah, the team seems a little skittish right now.

Cesar Izturis is to start at third base for the Dodgers on Thursday - a punchless return to the days of 2005 when the left side of the infield was manned by Izturis and Oscar Robles - but try not to freak out.

Things change, and Dodger manager Grady Little acknowledges it. From The Associated Press:

When asked if Izturis was the everyday third baseman, Little replied: "For now. Two weeks from now, I'll let you know."

Izturis is a preposterous choice to play third base - only at his hottest, as he was in early 2005, does he generate enough offense to be an above-average shortstop. Unlike Rafael Furcal, he can't make up for a hitting slump with stolen bases or walks. At third base, he'll have to save a truckload of runs with his glove to make a difference.

But Little has not come across this season as someone who sticks stubbornly to an idea beyond its expiration date. His experiments may seem like longshots at times, but they do end.

In a turn of events I think no one could have predicted, Ramon Martinez has essentially won the third-base job for the time being.

This year, Martinez has a .400 on-base percentage and .448 slugging percentage, while Willy Aybar has slumped to .364/.443. As a result, Aybar has been optioned to AAA Las Vegas to make room for the activation of Cesar Izturis.

While I wouldn't expect Martinez to hold at his current numbers, you can see Dodger manager Grady Little thinking that Martinez should be given the chance to see how long his hot streak can last, especially with Aybar's inconsistent defense.

Unfortunately for Aybar, he does not have the track record to get the deference that Rafael Furcal (.329/.335) has received. Furcal made an absolutely spectacular catch of a line drive in Oakland on Friday, but overall he has continued to struggle. But unlike the veteran with the $39 million contract, Aybar can be stashed in Las Vegas while the Dodgers assess the future of Izturis.

In announcing Aybar's demotion, Inside the Dodgers said that Izturis will see a little time at third base. So the position could continue to be a revolving door for a while.

Ultimately, the lesson is that veterans with guaranteed contracts may slump, but rookies with options may not. It takes a special talent to know when you should cut a veteran with superior numbers to retain a rookie with inferior numbers but the potential to get better. I'd take Aybar over Martinez in any one-on-one face-off, but even though it might not be the smartest thing to do, the safest thing is to keep them both in the organization.

* * *

Tonight's Game

The chart below isn't meant to draw any firm conclusions, but to add some information to the discussion of the Dodger starting pitching problems. It does nothing more than answer the question, "Of the total innings thrown by a team's starting pitchers, how many of those pitchers currently have ERAs below 4.75?"

For example, for the Dodgers, Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Aaron Sele and Chad Billingsley have ERAs as starting pitchers below 4.75. Their innings as starters add up to 231 2/3, which is 59 percent of the 392 2/3 innings thrown by Dodger starting pitching.

The 4.75 cutoff was chosen arbitrarily, to represent a figure below mediocrity but above incompetence (though these ERAs are not adjusted for park-effects). Basically, I wanted to know how many starting pitcher innings have been thrown by pitchers that, overall, have been bad.

Team	Starter Innings	Starter Innings Below 4.75	Pct.
San Diego	417 1/3	325	77.9
Cincinnati	431 2/3	314 2/3	72.9
Atlanta	413	275 2/3	66.7
New York	407 1/3	279 1/3	68.6
San Francisco	440	273	62.0
Colorado	425	272	64.0
Houston	419 2/3	259	59.6
Pittsburgh	404 2/3	255	63.0
Arizona	401 2/3	253 2/3	63.2
Florida	382	250 1/3	65.5
St. Louis	408 2/3	238 2/3	58.4
Milwaukee	412 1/3	235	57.0
Los Angeles	392 2/3	231 2/3	59.0
Washington	417	220 1/3	52.8
Chicago	373	130 2/3	35.0
Philadelphia	393 2/3	93	23.6

The chart reveals that the Dodgers are 14th in the National League in total starter innings (meaning they're going to the bullpen more than most teams), 13th in starter innings thrown by sub-4.75 starters, and 11th in percentage of starter innings thrown.

Not surprisingly, pitcher-friendly San Diego ranks at the top of the charts - even with Jake Peavy clocking in off the charts at 4.81 - but check out such teams in hitter-friendly cities as Cincinnati and Colorado near the top. Considering that the Dodgers (along with Washington) play at a fairly friendly pitchers park, you can see how badly they compare to their rivals.

Basically, while every team could do better with its starting rotation, you're not wrong if you thought the Dodgers were suffering more than most.

But, woe is Philadelphia. Woe.

Ken Arneson and Catfish Stew have things covered today - in pictures.

In case you missed it/don't forget: Dodger Thoughts Night at Dodger Stadium is Friday.

Vin Scully talks about his stepfather, Allan Reeve - the man he called "Dad" - to Steve Henson of the Times:

Dad was working late as usual, finishing up a 14-hour shift at the Brooklyn Navy Yard. Vin Scully had finished his homework and was getting sleepy. Although something was on his mind, he couldn't wait up, so he wrote a note and put it on his dad's breakfast plate before going to bed.

Vin had only a hazy memory of his biological father dying of pneumonia 11 years earlier, but he knew the toll it had taken on his mother, Bridget. The thought of losing Reeve, a reserved, pipe-smoking Englishman who had brought stability and love to the household, terrified him. ...

I hope the time I spend following the Dodgers has some value, because there are so many other things I could be doing with it. I guess I have to console myself with the fact that Scully does the same thing - and has some of the same misgivings, as we see later in the story - though at least he fed his family with it.

The Times also has stories from Sam Farmer on the fathers of John Wooden, Arte Moreno and Anita DeFrantz. You won't be shocked about the kind of man Joshua Wooden was.

Happy Father's Day.

* * *

Today's Game

When Oakland reserve designated hitter Antonio Perez was called out on strikes in the 17th, Dodger relievers had completed an improbable nine shutout innings, lowering the bullpen ERA this season from 4.60 to 4.41.

Unfortunately, they needed 9 1/3.

Russell Martin caught 258 pitches tonight. Jason Kendall caught 256.

Unless a roster move is made, at least two Dodgers who played the entire game tonight will have to start Sunday. Here's the lineup I proposed:

Starters:
Aybar, 2B (played half-game)
Martinez, SS (played half-game)
Garciaparra, DH (played whole game, but would only bat)
Drew, RF (DHed half-game)
Saenz, 3B (DHed half-game)
Kemp/Ethier, LF (played whole game)
Alomar, C (sat)
Cruz, CF (sat)
Penny, 1B (great bat off the bench)
Sele, P (sat)

Bench:
(All five below played in the field the entire game.)
Martin
Kent
Furcal
Lofton
Ethier/Kemp

If you don't like Penny at first base, then probably Kent or Furcal starts.

Update: Got to be careful about deadpanning on the Internet. Yes, I was joking about Penny.

Third base prospect Andy LaRoche, 22, has a slight labrum tear in his throwing shoulder, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

The second paragraph below is meant to be soothing, but it's making me queasy:

LaRoche, playing for Triple-A Las Vegas, heard a pop and felt a sharp pain. He had an MRI and was examined on Saturday by Dr. Frank Jobe, who believes the injury was caused by the dive and not the throw.

Jobe prescribed 10 days of rest before deciding whether surgery would be necessary. Trainer Stan Johnston said that surgery was not necessarily a given, because many players function despite such tears.

"Function" is a pretty loose word choice, and that's what bothers me. "Function" does not mean "perform at maximum capability." Eric Gagne, at this point, is trying to get back to functioning.

Furthermore, surgery doesn't always solve the problem, as we witnessed with Shawn Green, whose doctors removed damaged cartilage and didn't repair his labrum at all. Green has remained in the game, but his power has never been the same. He's functioning.

Hopefully, LaRoche's condition isn't so serious, but this isn't exactly the same as stubbing your toe.

LaRoche was 4 for 12 with two homers and three walks in four games with Las Vegas. He had OPSed .902 in 62 games with Jacksonville this year before his promotion.

Update: Here's a two-year old article by Will Carroll for Slate on labrum injuries.

Update 2: Dodger Thoughts commenter Vishal points out that Troy Glaus has regained his power despite a previous labrum injury.

* * *

Gurnick goes on to add these rehabilitation updates:

From the Dodger Thoughts 2006 Spring Training Primer, February 8:

Takashi Saito, P: This year's Norihiro Nakamura, pitching side. A 36-year-old (on Valentine's Day) pitcher with a 3.82 ERA in Japan last season doesn't excite.

Ramon Martinez, IF: Do we really need to force the Dodgers' original Ramon Martinez to compete in the team encyclopedia with a 33-year-old infielder who OPSed .639 last year?

Aaron Sele, P: The Ghost of Scott Erickson. The 35-year-old hasn't had a major-league ERA below 5.00 since 2002, and he barely strikes out a batter every three innings.

Some that I got less wrong:

Lance Carter, P: There's nothing particularly distinguished about Carter, but the quotes from Colletti upon his acquisition last month indicate the GM's strong belief in him. It's hard to believe Jonathan Broxton isn't better, but ...

Jonathan Broxton, P: Odds are that with so many veteran relievers on the team now, Broxton will have to go to AAA, where he can work on his control. But he shouldn't be down long - if at all.

Hong-Chih Kuo, P: His strikeout potential is phenomenal. Ideally, he'll be healthy and ready to go after major league hitters. The last thing the Dodgers should probably do is waste his healthy innings in Las Vegas. But he'll have to prove to manager Grady Little that he's ready to get out major leaguers on a daily basis.

Andre Ethier, OF: A left-handed hitter, he could challenge Repko for the temporary last outfield slot, but more likely would be first in line if another outfielder stumbles after April 1.

Cody Ross, OF: Ross had a terrible cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2005, wasn't really a knockout in Las Vegas, and is perhaps tainted by association with Paul DePodesta (as one of his earliest scavenger prizes). But Ross has some power, so he could represent a more interesting threat off the bench than Repko.

Russell Martin, C: There's every reason to assume that Martin will tear it up in Vegas, positioning himself for a callup the moment Navarro falters or Alomar is proved unnecessary.

Chad Billingsley, P: Still 21, he'll collect more seasoning at the outset, but he should get his first taste of the bigs this year unless he implodes.

Joel Guzman, IF-OF: The exciting prospect will also eye the major league injury report while discovering his new position, whatever that is. For our part, we'll be watching his plate discipline.

James Loney, 1B: There isn't any reason to think Loney will have a major-league impact in 2006, but there isn't any rush for him to. He's on track for 2007.

Matt Kemp, OF: A true outfield prospect, it's not impossible that the 21-year-old Kemp could be the first of the 2005 Vero Beach Dodgers to make the bigs.

* * *

Dodger Thoughts Night at Dodger Stadium, Friday, June 23

* * *

Tonight's Game

Again, Inside the Dodgers provides the early news. Really has been nice of Josh Rawitch and friends to pass along lineups and notes so early this year.

J.D. Drew is sitting again - though lefty Barry Zito is on the Oakland mound, we'll await more news on Drew's health. Willy Aybar and Andre Ethier will be on the bench as well.

* * *

Tonight's Game

When: Friday, June 23, 7:40 p.m. I'll arrive as early as possible after work - ideally by 6:40 p.m.

Where: Dodger Stadium, Reserved Level, Section 12. The Dodgers are hosting Pittsburgh on Fernando Valenzuela Bobblehead Night.

Tickets: Thirty tickets have been reserved at a cost of $12 each by Dodger Thoughts commenter ToyCannon. (Many thanks!) E-mail him at molokai@yahoo.com with "DodgerThoughtsGame" in the subject header to reserve your seat(s) and arrange payment. If more people are interested, we'll try to scrounge up more tickets - but because of the bobblehead giveaway, the game may sell out, so act as quickly as possible.

Update: For a $2 Ticketmaster service charge, your ticket can be e-mailed to you. See Comment 11 below for more details.

Also: If you would like to purchase a copy of The Best of Dodger Thoughts, this is a great time to do it.

... Paul DePodesta.

... Milton Bradley.

My niece's elementary school has adopted the motto, "We have two gifts to give our children. One is roots, the other, wings." I have to say, those are fine choices. Roots made a tremendous impression on me when I watched it night after night as a nine-year-old, and one of my first spec scripts to try to get screenwriting work was a Wings episode entitled "Nuts & Burials," in which all the characters became preoccupied with how they would spend eternity. In humorous fashion, of course.

I'm just sorry I missed it when the Roots and Wings DVD boxed sets were being handed out to all the kids. I suppose they do that on the first day of kindergarten.

Anyway, I was at the school Wednesday for my niece's sixth-grade graduation, which seems an appropiate enough setup for the major league debut today of Chad Billingsley, born a mere 10 years and 10 days before my niece.

I was taken back to my own sixth-grade graduation in 1979 from Saticoy Elementary School, located proudly in North Hollywood on Ethel Avenue, a street that never fails to bring Vivian Vance to mind. (For another story about school days, check out Bob Timmermann's piece today on nearby Kennedy High School at Baseball Analysts.) Sixth grade had a weird start for me because it was my first year at the school after six years at Collier Street Elementary in Woodland Hills. I was the newest kid in the class and just about the shortest. But I bonded with friends over Mork and Mindy and Steve Martin's A Wild and Crazy Guy, and before I knew it, I was comfortable. And then, before I knew it, I was being pushed up to the majors.

At our graduation, we listened to a speech, sang "We've Only Just Begun" and most importantly, I danced with Susan Stein, one of two girls there whom I liked and who was as short as me. (Nothing came of it, because back then I only kissed other girls in sanctioned forums such as "Truth or Dare.")

On the program for my niece's graduation, there were echoes: a speech by the school principal and a scheduled song, "Time of Your Life." What's funny is that I immediately assumed that this would be the theme song from Dirty Dancing, before realizing that I had the title mixed up and that kids today are hip enough for Green Day.

It's a melancholy song, a song that even Seinfeld used in its series-ending clip show to bring a touch of poignancy to its finale. Instead of looking ahead like the Carpenters did, the song looks back.

Another turning point;
a fork stuck in the road.

It's something unpredictable
but in the end it's right.
I hope you had the time of your life.

When a player reaches the big leagues, are his eyes completely forward? Or is there any amount of lament for when less was demanded of him, for when he was less openly on trial?

I hope when Billingsley arrived in San Diego, with all the preparation he needed to make for today's start, that he allowed himself some time to just sit back and savor what he's accomplished. I trust that he did.

In closing, students of Dodger Thoughts, I pass along this utilitarian piece of advice from my niece's principal: "Remember your strengths and your competencies." I'm a little puzzled by the distinction, but it seems like it will come in handy at some point.

(And confidential to my niece ... I loved your speech.)

* * *

Today's 12:35 p.m. game

Rookies in the lineup from No. 5 through No. 9: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Willy Aybar, Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley. Is this a Dodger record for a pre-September game? (Other than the franchise's first season, of course.)

                1985               2006

June 1      Guerrero HR          Kemp HR
June 2                           Kemp HR
June 3                           Kemp HR
June 4      Guerrero HR
June 5      
June 6                           Kemp HR
June 7      Guerrero HR
June 8      Guerrero HR
June 9      
June 10     Guerrero HR
June 11                          Kemp HR
                                 Kemp HR
June 12     
June 13     
June 14     Guerrero HR          Kemp HR
            Guerrero HR  

Not that baseball isn't a team game, as we're sadly being reminded ...

Although I know better than most to take postgame quotes with a healthy amount of skepticism, it pleases me to hear people say the right thing or offer some semblance of introspection or honesty. Honestly, I think I really do get a warm feeling inside. Like puddin'.

Dodger pitcher Aaron Sele, for example, could have shirked responsibility for Tuesday's loss, in which he was victimized by two Rafael Furcal errors and some America's Funniest Center Field Videos submitted by Kenny Lofton. Instead, as Tony Jackson of the Daily News reports, Sele took the brunt.

(Dodger manager Grady) Little called the errors "the difference in the game." Sele disagreed, at least outwardly.

"That happens," said Sele, who gave up five runs (one earned) and walked a season-high five batters over four innings. "A starting pitcher has to keep the game close, and I wasn't able to do that. (Errors) are part of the game. I just have to make some better pitches."

I'm never going to be Sele's biggest fan, but he won me over some with those comments. Contrast them with the words of Scott Erickson last year.

Commenters have pointed out this Ericksonerpt in Steve Henson's Times article today:

Erickson gave up 10 hits and left after 4 2/3 innings with the Dodgers trailing, 7-3, and pointed a finger at the defense. Two pitches before Sanders hit a home run in the fourth, he lifted a foul popup near the stands that fell behind third baseman Oscar Robles — playing in his first game after having his contract purchased from the Mexican League.

"With a lineup like theirs, it's tough to give extra outs," Erickson said. "I seriously felt I threw much better than the results."

Two years ago, Odalis Perez, a considerably better-performing pitcher, nearly got run out of town on a rail for making the obvious point that the Dodger offense wasn't hitting. Lovable Paul LoDuca was leading the metaphorical lynch mob at the time.

Up to the moment where the foul ball fell between Robles, Cesar Izturis and Ricky Ledee - catchable, but after a long run for each - Erickson had faced 23 batters and allowed four singles, two doubles, two home runs and a walk while striking out none. Opponent's OPS: 1.118. Dodger errors: 0.

Prideth goeth before the falleth.

"How many bullets he's got left in his arm, we're not sure," Little said of Saito. "But we like what we see."

It was a nice balance of appreciation and realism.

Joel Guzman, I fear, is going to get a negative reputation. He reportedly pouted and didn't run out a ball in Las Vegas when the Dodgers called up Matt Kemp ahead of him, and Tuesday night, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com desrcibed Guzman as "sour" after Guzman was demoted to Las Vegas.

"I have nothing to say," Guzman told Gurnick.

The expectation for any player meeting the press, if he can't be truly engaging, is to go into Crash Davis mode and say all the right things. While it's possible that Guzman is a pouter in the worst way, as the Las Vegas incident would suggest, it is fair for Guzman to feel sincere disappointment that he hasn't had the kind of year that Kemp has had.

Guzman's reason for being sour could ultimately be harmless. Nobody likes a demotion, and just because you can't muster immediate equanimity doesn't make you a bad person. The guy is only 21, and being sour when he doesn't find success might not indicate anything more than his passion. Let's get to know him a little better before we judge.

As for the bete noir of 2006, Perez offered a similarly bitter no comment in reaction to his demotion to the bullpen Tuesday (though Gurnick called Perez stunned). Perez has become this year's pinata in more ways than one, and the widely circulated story about how he canceled his charitable ticket giveaway program because he wasn't getting enough appreciation indicates how self-inflicted some of his wounds are.

Yet for some reason, Perez hasn't gotten to me the way Eric Karros and Jim Tracy did when their performances declined and their comments to the press showed they were in complete denial about it. In part, this is because Karros and Tracy had so many defenders that it bothered me that they could be so easily forgiven, while Perez - dating back to his conflict with LoDuca and continuing with the grief he took for not wanting to hurt the team or himself by pitching with a finger injury - has never seemed to have many people in his corner.

In part, it's because I can't get the feeling out of my head that Perez's mother's illness is affecting him. Not that this entitles him to be a jerk, but I can understand how he might have difficulty mustering his best behavior.

I don't really like being in the position of defending a pitcher with a 7-plus ERA and dubious social skills, but I guess I'm not convinced that the unraveling we're witnessing this season is permanent. I feel someone needs to speak up for that possibility, and because few others will, I will. I can take the beating if (when) it turns out I was wrong.

* * *

Tonight's Game

It's not as homespun as giving orders to the manager by holding up signs at the ballpark, but today at SI.com, I put together an interactive column that invites you to fire everyone and hire yourself:

Hot dogs, Cracker Jack and second-guessing the manager. If you're a baseball fan, at least one of these is whetting your appetite right now.

We'll look for a vendor to bring us some grub, but in the meantime, here are some second-guessing snacks for you. I've created six hypothetical situations that set up some of the toughest decisions a manager has to make. (At least, managers seem to find them tough, though sometimes the answers seem painfully obvious.) After I offer my opinion, you'll get your chance to second-guess ... me.

OK, ready to manage? Good. Here we go ...

Inside the Dodgers has the news on Chad Billingsley, who will start Thursday. Odalis Perez returns to the bullpen and Joel Guzman to Las Vegas.

Jae Seo has a doctor's appointment for tomorrow. He left tonight's game after one inning of relief.

This afternoon, the Dodgers announced that they had activated Jeff Kent but held off revealing who would leave the active roster. It's mystifying why it wouldn't be Eric Gagne, or if it is, why it would take so long to announce.

Even if Gagne has convinced the Dodgers that he is ready to pitch, why would they believe him? Why would they rush him back into action? Here you have them giving Jeff Kent, who has a good record of health, more time than he needed to recover from his injury. Why would Gagne be treated less gingerly?

If they haven't already, someone should hide Gagne's uniform.

(And then, if everyone wants him to pitch so badly, he can pitch in his skivvies. That should take our minds off his arm troubles.)

Update: For those just tuning in, Gagne went on the disabled list again - and will be there more than 15 days.

"Although Gagne's placement on the DL is retroactive to last Wednesday, he won't be ready when he's eligible to return next week," Ken Gurnick of MLB.com wrote. "He will need to play catch, then throw off a mound, then probably face hitters. And none of that will happen until the nerve is completely sensation free. In (Brad) Penny's case, while there was constant therapy, the keys were time and patience."

Regarding the starting rotation, Gurnick wrote in his notebook that "manager Grady Little said the next five games tentatively line up with Brad Penny, (Brett) Tomko, (Odalis) Perez, Derek Lowe and Aaron Sele."

"But you know the way it is around here," Little told Gurnick. "It's subject to change at a moment's notice."

* * *

Tonight's Game

Since the year 2000, Scott Erickson has pitched for five major league teams and compiled the following record: 79 games (58 starts), 347 innings, 247 earned runs, 620 baserunners, 51 home runs, 141 strikeouts, 6.41 ERA.

In his best season of the century, Erickson had a 5.55 ERA compared to a league average of 4.38, for a park-adjusted ERA+ of 79.

Talk about the guest who wouldn't leave. You may know me as something of a bleeding heart, but it's hard to feel too bad for someone who has had such a long, sloppy goodbye.

The New York Yankees designated Erickson for assignment Sunday. Maybe, just maybe, this is it.

* * *

Members of the Big Blue Wrecking Crew, another place to chat about the Dodgers, have kindly invited Dodger Thoughts readers to join them for a get-together at the Dodgers-Nationals game July 28. Click here for details. Since I've proven incapable of planning such an activity - though someday, I hope to do it - it might be a nice place for all of you to meet up.

Dodger prospect Andy LaRoche was promoted to Las Vegas today and hit a two-run home run on the first AAA pitch he saw.

After a slow start, LaRoche was OPSing an impressive .901 in the tough hitting environment of AA Jacksonville, with nine home runs, 41 walks and 32 strikeouts.

You would have figured Jacksonville would have suffered this year with most of last year's crew now playing in Las Vegas or Los Angeles, but leading up to LaRoche's promotion today, the Suns had won 12 straight and 22 of their past 25.

Unnoticed in the celebration of Sandy Alomar, Jr.'s game-winning pinch-single at Colorado for the Dodgers on Sunday was how surprising it was to see him pinch-hit at that particular moment, replacing center fielder Kenny Lofton with one out and the go-ahead run on second base in the ninth inning.

To be honest, it was Little's second daring move of the inning. The first was to have Joel Guzman pinch-hit for Danys Baez followed by Olmedo Saenz for Ramon Martinez, instead of going with Saenz and Martinez and saving Guzman for later.

After Guzman flied out, Saenz doubled and Russell Martin doubled, tying the game with Lofton due up. I had no problem with the boldness of using the Dodgers' final catcher and position player to try to win the game right there, instead of worrying about extra innings. No slam against Lofton, but I'm glad that Little doesn't find him sacred and is willing to consider alternatives. And I'm not big on saving players for innings that might not come. At the same time, I wondered if the move made sense on any level.

Looking up the numbers today, I find that Lofton had a .375 on-base percentage vs. lefties in limited opportunities from 2003-2005 and .361 this season. Alomar was 6 for 13 (.462) against lefties this season, but had an on-base percentage of .270 against them the previous three seasons. Overall this season, the only other significant edge Alomar has over Lofton is in slugging percentage, an edge that's both slim and recent.

The decision to use Alomar seems to have weakened the Dodgers' chances of winning in nine innings as well as 10 or more. Best as I can tell, Little either read a lot into Alomar's 6 for 13, wanted more than just a single or was simply playing a hunch. I haven't heard any reports that Lofton was hurt, which would mootify the need for an explanation.

In any event, Alomar was a strike away from having the move backfire when he went the other way and singled in Martin. I'm still not convinced it was the right move, but I can't say I went to sleep unhappy about it.

Update: I didn't look hard enough at the splits of Colorado pitcher Brian Fuentes. His success against lefties further makes the case for using Alomar. Thanks to the guys in the comments below for pointing this out.

Jeff Kent is due back from the disabled list early this week. He can replace Eric Gagne, who is on the active roster in name only.

The rumor train, driven with authority by Steve Henson of the Times, has Chad Billingsley en route to Dodgerland for a Thursday or Friday start - he can replace Joel Guzman, who had an okay, James Loney-like debut in the bigs (not everyone can break out like Matt Kemp at 21) and can now go back to Las Vegas to continue undergraduate study. The Dodgers would still have 11 pitchers. And given the way the season has gone, isn't it time for Billingsley to get his shot? Last year, it was around late May/early June that it became Derek Thompson Time, and Thompson was no Billingsley.

Dioner Navarro will be ready for activation soon, but with Russell Martin usurping the starting job at catcher, the best Navarro can do is be a reserve. And even though, as Henson confirms, Sandy Alomar, Jr. is "as much a coach as a catcher," that .367 batting average (and yes, .367 on-base percentage) will no doubt point Navarro into the same classes as Guzman.

Henson notes that Kelly Wunsch is pitching again, for the 51s. Hong-Chih Kuo has done well since his recall, so Joe Beimel could get short-timed to AAA if Wunsch is recalled. Other transactions between the back of the bullpen and Las Vegas are certainly possible.

That still leaves the question of Cesar Izturis, who is well into his rehab stint. I had Izturis pegged to take Guzman's spot after Kent took Gagne's, but that was before the Billingsley talk became serious. Izturis' rehab can be extended further, giving us a chance to wait and see. But if Billingsley sticks, who goes? Jae Seo or Odalis Perez, leaving the Dodgers with 10 pitchers? Willy Aybar or Andre Ethier, ridding the Dodgers of two key players in their ascendance to first place? Ramon Martinez, who is OPSing .850 and would be much more content than Izturis (if anyone's asking) to be a reserve?

Somehow, I sense that another injury will solve this roster crunch. At least until the almost inevitable Izturis trade.

On-the-money quote from Grady Little passed along by Kevin Pearson of the Press-Enterprise:

If (Eric) Gagne is put on the DL and replaced on the 25-man roster by (Jeff) Kent, that would leave the Dodgers with 11 pitchers on the roster.

"If they are the right people, I wouldn't mind going with nine," Little said.

* * *

Brett Tomko, who was hammered again Saturday, expressed confusion that opponents are taking advantage when his location is off.

"I feel like I'm making good pitches," a shellshocked Tomko told Tony Jackson of the Daily News. "But I feel like when I make a mistake, I'm not getting away with anything."

In other words, Tomko is wanting his mistakes to be forgiven. In the words of Vin Scully, "Aren't we all?"

* * *

The Dodgers announced the following draft picks have signed: "Bryan Morris, the club's second first-round pick (No. 26 overall) is the highest Dodger draft choice to sign so far. Preston Mattingly (No. 31 overall) also signed last night, as did Kyle Smit (fifth round), Justin Fuller (11th round), Michael Rivera (17th round), Matthew Berezay (21st round), John Martin (24th), Esteban Lopez (25th) and Joseph Jones, an 18th-rounder who is the son of Dodger scout Hank Jones."

* * *

Pearson adds that Kenny Lofton is scheduled for a day off today. With J.D. Drew likely to rest his Saturday injury, a Joel Guzman-Matt Kemp-Andre Ethier outfield and five-rookie lineup could happen. But it probably won't.

Guzman himself is questionable after getting hit by a pitch Saturday.

Today's Game

"As long as I can feel anything, I can't throw," (Eric) Gagne said. "When the nerve is irritated, it has to go away completely. It's just time, but we don't know how long that takes."

That was a lesson (Brad) Penny learned at the end of 2004 and into 2005, when he suffered a rare arm nerve injury and aggravated it trying to rush back in September for the stretch run. Penny was more deliberate when he returned in 2005 and missed the first three weeks of the season to be doubly sure that his nerve was fully healed. He has had no further problems with it.

- Ken Gurnick, MLB.com

Keep this in mind, by the way, if you're planning on questioning J.D. Drew's toughness. Drew doesn't play through every injury (though he plays through some) and risk making them worse. Maybe that doesn't mean he's weak. Maybe that means he's, I don't know, sane.

* * *

Chad Billingsley tonight: five innings, four hits, two runs, three walks, one hit batter, six strikeouts, 103 pitches. I only mention this because I figure people might be wondering.

Tonight's Game

I have never seen as many blasts off Colorado bats die at the Coors Field outfield walls as I saw Friday.

Here's a link to the Walteromalley.com obituary for Rollie Seidler, the longtime Dodger executive and husband of Terry O'Malley Seidler. Rollie Seidler passed away Thursday.

At 3.91, this year's Dodger starting rotation has its lowest ERA since the 2003 rotation finished at 3.49. This is somewhat amazing because Jae Seo has been like unwrapping socks on Christmas morning, and Odalis Perez has been downright malodorous.

Perez's ERA is 7.02 overall and 8.02 as a starting pitcher in 2006. Without even trying, Perez has extended the tradition of horrible Dodger starters to a third year, taking the baton from Scott Erickson (7.22 in 2005) and Hideo Nomo (8.25 in 2004).

Perez has alienated many of even his biggest supporters with his body language, his susceptibility to the big inning, his dismissive quotes and above all, his overall performance, and the last thing I came here with today is any kind of predetermined agenda to defend him. Perez is 28 years old, young but not so young that he couldn't be facing the end of his career.

Unlike Erickson and Nomo, however, there are signs that Perez is capable of a turnaround.

On balls hit in play off Perez this season - balls that in theory Perez has little control over - opponents are batting an astonishing .395. So, there is more than a little truth to his recent shrug to the media that he has been unlucky. In previous years, the BABIP against Perez has been .292 (2005), .272 (2004), .299 (2003) and .255 (2002).

The BABIP is more significant this year because Perez's strikeout rate is slowly declining, down to 5.74 per nine innings. Perez can't afford as much bad luck as he could before - and he certainly can't afford as much as he's having this year.

But the thing about luck is that it can change. I've even heard it does change from time to time. It would be extremely unlikely for Perez's BABIP to remain anywhere close to .395 - among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last year, the highest BABIP was .358. Even Jose Lima was only at .320.

At the same time, there are other numbers already in Perez's favor. Perhaps most importantly, teams are giving Perez death by a thousand pinpricks rather than a sledgehammer. Perez has allowed five home runs in 42 1/3 innings as a starter, the equivalent of 19 over 162 innings. That's fairly acceptable - in fact, it's an improvement on his career numbers.

Even though opponents are batting .353 overall against Perez this year - 92 points over his career average allowed of .261 - the increase in slugging percentage allowed by Perez is only slightly higher. It's 109 points - .522 this year vs. .413 over his career. Opponents are not hitting Perez with much extra power compared to previous years.

Although he's keeping the ball in the park, Perez is walking 2.55 batters per nine innings, a better rate than Brad Penny or Derek Lowe. Perez is also striking out batters more often than Lowe, and Perez's groundout/flyout ratio is 1.46: slightly below his career average of 1.62, but an improvement over last year.

Batters are getting plenty of Perez pitches to swing at, and they're hitting them, but they're not hitting them very far.

Perez is not going to make any kind of late run at the Cy Young award this year or ever again. But the stubbornness in Perez that we find so annoying could work to his advantage, because given the opportunity, Perez can perform over the rest of the season at the level people expected of him: at a league-average ERA or better. Producing six innings of three-run ball would make a big difference in the Dodger season - as you can see by looking at the other back ends of the Dodger starting rotation.

It's worth noting that Seo has also been on the unlucky side on BABIP, allowing a .305 batting average. The bigger problem with Seo is that he has also been giving up 1.91 home runs per nine innings - more than doubling his 2005 rate with the Mets. Whereas the increase in Perez's slugging average allowed is in line with the increase in his batting average allowed, the difference between Seo's slugging percentage allowed and batting average allowed this year, 237 points (.290/.527), is well above his career differential of 177 points (.272/.449).

Seo's overall ERA of 5.40 this season is much better than Perez's, but he probably needs to make a more tangible adjustment to gain any improvement in his statistics. Not that it can't be done - Lowe has lowered his nine-inning home run rate from 1.14 last year to 0.54 this year - but the challenge for Seo at this point in the season is greater than that of Perez.

Brett Tomko's situation is somewhere between Perez's and Seo's - his BABIP is .301 and he's allowing a home run every six innings, but his strikeouts are actually on an uptick, and the slugging against him isn't hugely out of line with his career numbers. With an ERA still below five (not that pitching Saturday in Coors Field is likely to help) and some room for better luck, Tomko remains someone who will have his good stretches to go with his bad. It's the way most of his career has gone.

Next to Lowe, Aaron Sele has been the luckiest Dodger starting pitcher, with a BABIP of .246. That figure, along with a strikeout rate that Sele hasn't displayed since 2000 and home run and walk rates that are honestly the best of his career, has allowed Sele to pitch at near-maximum capacity. It goes to show you that anything is possible and if Dodger general manager Ned Colletti or anyone can prove they knew this might happen, we'll all be really impressed, but short of Sele having dabbled in necromancy, these are four very tenuous prongs to stand on.

If I had to rank the Dodger starting pitchers going forward, it would be:

1) Penny
2) Lowe
3) Tomko
4 and falling) Sele
5 and rising) Perez
6) Seo

And yes, by September, if not sooner, AAA Las Vegas pitcher Chad Billingsley should be one of the five-best Dodger starting pitchers available. If he can put up a 3.97 ERA in Jackpot Central, allowing 53 hits (seven home runs) and 29 walks in 65 2/3 innings while striking out 72, he can do well in Los Angeles. If Billingsley maintains or improves his numbers for the next month, and the Dodgers can't get five league-average starting pitchers from the current six (a high standard, no doubt about it, but one completely worth striving for), they should pull the trigger and call Billingsley up. They should do this before they convert Jonathan Broxton or Hong-Chih Kuo into starting pitchers, and they should do this before they let bad starting pitchers undermine the rest of the staff in the second half of the season.

* * *

Tonight's Game

Dodger scouting director Logan White gets a great deal of credit for the success of this year's Dodger rookies, and rightfully so, but director of player development Terry Collins deserves his share as well. Tony Jackson of the Daily News throws some his way this morning.

Collins looked like he was on his way out the Dodger door after his selection to manage the team by Paul DePodesta reportedly became the reason DePodesta was abruptly fired. (Talk about awkward ...) However, Collins has certainly made the best of things since he was relieved of his last managerial post in Anaheim in 1999, and you might argue that he has been more valuable as farm director than he could have ever been as manager.

The laid-back, congenial White is the man generally credited with building the Dodgers' pool of minor-league talent. Collins, who is part drill sergeant and part father figure, is the man who is developing them. Or, as he would prefer to put it, the man who hired the managers and coaches who are developing them. ...

That's because Collins wants his players to struggle. After all, he figures if they learn how to fight their way out of a slump in the minors, they will be better prepared to battle their way out of one in the majors.

I did a quick feature on the man behind Dwight K. Schrute's blog, Schrute-Space - along with another piece on T.R. Knight of Grey's Anatomy - for Friday's Variety.

Rainn Wilson:

Dwight Schrute is cut from many cloths -- many comically shaped, weirdly fabricated, strange-to-the-touch cloths.

The guy who dresses the part, actor Rainn Wilson of "The Office," is a pretty big fan of the big Technicolor Dwightcoat.

"What I love about Dwight is you think you know exactly what Dwight is, but he always surprises you," Wilson says. "You think of him as a dorky fascist, but there's always been that other twist." ...

Although Wilson comes across as Dwight's very rational alter ego, his affection for the one-eighth-Amish survivalist is clear. Since filming began on "The Office," Wilson has been blogging in the character of Dwight. At first it was just for himself, but NBC now publishes "Dwight Schrute's Schrute-Space" on its Web site.

For Valentine's Day, Wilson/Schrute advised readers to treat their mates right: "Why not, as the ancients used to, kill something delicious for them and lay it on their door-step. A stag, a salmon, a sow." ...

If Charlie Brown had ever grown up and pursued a career in medicine, he might have become George O'Malley, the character who always seems to be having one "good grief" moment after another on ABC's "Grey's Anatomy."

But there isn't a humiliation or emasculation that will make "Grey's" actor T.R. Knight tire of being George. ...

During the first interview, Wilson was so level-headed - enthusiastic but thoughtful - that I became all the more impressed with his talents on The Office. If you're a fan of the show, be sure to check out Dwight's blog - as well as that of Jenna Fischer, who plays Pam. Jenna/Pam also has a MySpace page, although I'll admit to being way behind the curve with regards to MySpace.

Dodger Thoughts reader Jibin Park threw out the ceremonial first pitch at Dodger Stadium Monday night - with a little something extra, I might add. Here's his tale (along with some photos):

It was quite a surreal experience. I was on the field about an hour before game time, chatting with none other than Larry King of all people. I see Scott Boras talking on his phone, and sitting behind him is Dumb and Dumber star Jeff Daniels.

Can't wait to get the DVD that the Dodgers said they'd provide so that I can see what actually happened.

* * *

This other story came in through today's comments from DT reader Greg S:

Got to sit in the dugout boxes last night and about an hour before the game, Russell Martin, Sr. was sitting there by himself. So I went up and introduced myself and talked with him for quite a while. He is a really nice guy and of course very excited for his son. After reading the Plaschke story, I thought he might be a bit strange, but he was quite articulate and said all the things a good dad would say. Mostly excited but also concerned about his son being famous (quickly) in a place like L.A. Anyway, it was just a nice story (both in the Times and Vinny talking about it), and I can confirm first hand that he is enjoying every minute of it.

Taking a break from the woes of Eric Gagne for a moment ...

Though Dodger third baseman Bill Mueller got off to a better start in April than last year's free agent signee at the position, Jose Valentin, it looks as if Mueller is going to end up having a similar season. Like Valentin, Mueller was sidelined early on by a knee injury, and his recovery is not going well.

"Mueller's knee is not responding well to May 15 surgery," Ken Gurnick of MLB.com said, "and he will seek a second opinion from Vail orthopedic surgeon Dr. William Steadman. Mueller has had three operations on the right knee."

Valentin, meanwhile, is having a little bit of a rebound at age 36, playing second base for the New York Mets. It's nothing spectacular, but presumably it's what former Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta had in mind when he signed Valentin to be the 2005 stopgap at third.

Valentin, 2005: 184 PA, .598 OPS, .232 EQA, -6.9 VORP, $3,500,000
Mueller, 2006: 126 PA, .759 OPS, .266 EQA, 1.6 VORP, $4,250,000 (2006), $5,250,000 (2007-08)
Valentin, 2006: 103 PA, .838 OPS, .273 EQA, 6.4 VORP, $912,500

I never got comfortable with the Valentin signing, whereas I saw some potential (to go with some health risk) in picking up Mueller when it happened. Furthermore, Mueller still has a chance to pull things together by the end of the year (though I don't think anyone knows when we'll see him next), and Valentin still has plenty of time to let things fall apart.

But in the end, Mueller's principal value to the Dodgers might just be what he did for them just for the season's opening couple of weeks, and maybe, what he might provide on the trade market. Maybe he'll contribute in the stretch run of 2006. Maybe he'll follow Valentin into a resurgence - in Los Angeles even, if for some reason Willy Aybar, Joel Guzman or Andy LaRoche don't prevent it.

Otherwise, on-the-field memories of Mueller in a Dodger uniform might be as few as those of Valentin.

An MRI on Eric Gagne revealed no damage, according to Inside the Dodgers. With an off day Thursday, Gagne will not pitch again at least until the team arrives in Colorado on Friday. The Dodgers plan to reevaluate him that day. I wouldn't call this an entirely clean bill of health.

Andre Ethier and Willy Aybar draw the bench today, as the Dodgers tease but continue to hold back their five-rookie lineup. J.D. Drew is also sitting, with Matt Kemp batting fourth and Joel Guzman fifth. Jose Cruz, Jr., whose platoon differentials favor him against lefties, starts against Tom Glavine.

* * *

Pitches seen by Guzman:

June 1
Three vs. Clay Condrey: strike (swinging), ball, 5-4-3 DP

June 2
One vs. Ryan Madson: groundout to short
Four vs. Ryan Madson: ball, ball, ball, ball
Two vs. Ryan Madson: ball, single to center
Four vs. Rheal Cormier: strike (looking), ball, foul, groundout to second
Two vs. Tom Gordon: ball, 6-4-3 DP

June 3
One vs. Eude Brito: infield single
Two vs. Eude Brito: strike (looking), flyout to right
One vs. Clay Condrey: groundout to second
Four vs. Clay Condrey: ball, ball, ball, ball

June 4
Four vs. Brett Myers: ball, strike (swinging), foul, strike (swinging)
Four vs. Brett Myers: strike (looking), foul, foul, pop-fly single
One vs. Brett Myers: lineout to left
Four vs. Tom Gordon: foul, strike (looking), foul, popout

Guzman hasn't gone deep in any at-bats, but he is taking pitches here and there. In 14 plate appearances, he has taken the first pitch in eight of them. Although he hasn't always had a good swing, he has swung and missed only three of 37 pitches he has seen so far.

One thing I've noticed is that he has tried to go to right field more than I would have expected.

* * *

Tonight's Game

Last week, John Manuel of