oh no. let's not be giving the "professional hitter" tag to robles already.

maybe Robles can lead the Dodgers back to the promised land? could happen, couldn't it?

1-yes, that was the kiss of death to Saenz

Vishal, would you prefer Situational Hitter, or is that reserved for Repko?

He better be a professional hitter. They all better hit in a professional manner. Last I checked they're all getting a professional salary.

no, Repko is the situational defender

4. i thought repko was Scrappy(TM)

5 - picky picky

Random Dodger game callback

July 5, 1987

Two teams going nowhere faced off at Three Rivers Stadium on a Sunday afternoon, and it was the Dodgers who were the better team, besting the Pirates 6-1 behind five strong innings from Orel Hershiser and then using some good fielding to preserve the lead. The Dodgers were now 37-43 and in fifth place, 8 ½ games behind Cincinnati.

Hershiser held the Pirates to just one hit over five innings, before departing with a sore back. By that time, the Dodgers were already up 6-0 against Pittsburgh starter Brian Fisher.

The Dodgers scored in the top of the first. Dave Anderson led off with a single and went to second when Barry Bonds booted the ball in left. Danny Heep doubled in Anderson. The Dodgers scored again in the second when Mickey Hatcher singled and Mike Scioscia doubled him home.

Franklin Stubbs tripled to lead off the fourth and scored on a sacrifice fly by Scioscia. And in the fifth, Anderson reached second on an error by second baseman Johnny Ray and then scored on Heep's second double of the day. In the sixth, Stubbs singled, scored on a triple by Hatcher, who in turn scored on a Steve Sax sacrifice fly.

In the bottom of the sixth, Alejandro Pena relieved (Hershiser was suffering back spasms) and walked Mike LaValliere and Rafael Belliard to start off the inning. After a strikeout, Pena walked Bonds to load the bases and then Andy Van Slyke to force in a run. Out came Pena and in came lefty reliever Matt Young.

Johnny Ray hit a sharp grounder through the middle, which Anderson dove for and gloved and was able to shovel it to Sax who turned it into an inning-ending double play. Young finished up the game for his seventh save.

The 1987 Dodgers had lots of changes and numerous injuries. The Dodgers waived Jerry Ruess and Bill Madlock early in the season. Tom Niedenfuer was traded to Baltimore. The team also had trouble filling the shortstop position as both Mariano Duncan and Anderson went down with injuries. The Dodgers had to acquire Glenn Hoffman on August 21 to fill the position. Phil Garner even had to fill in at the position once.

Garner earned some respect from his teammates in 1987 for the unusual reason of getting into a fight with injury-plagued outfielder Mike Marshall. Although he didn't say so on the record, it was believed that Garner felt that Marshall was a malingerer. Nevertheless, Garner was granted free agency and Marshall would return in 1988.

Pedro Guerrero was the only steady player on offense. He batted .338 with a .416 OBP and slugged 27 homers. The Dodgers tried a rookie named Mike Ramsey in center field, who would have an obscure, yet memorable career. John Shelby eventually took over the position.

Hershiser went 16-16 with a 3.06 ERA and led the NL with 264 2/3 innings pitched. Local hero Fernando Valenzuela showed signs of wearing down. He led the league in hits allowed and walks and went 14-14 with a 3.98 ERA.

But overall it was a dismal year. The Dodgers finished 73-89 and 17 games behind division-winning San Francisco in fourth place. There would be help in the off-season, but most of it came from an arbitrator who ruled that baseball's owners had colluded earlier to keep some free agents from signing. Some players were made free agents again, including Detroit outfielder Kirk Gibson.

The Dodgers new general manager, Fred Claire, who had replaced longtime GM Al Campanis after a disastrous interview on "Nightline" in April where he set a record for most inappropriate comments made in a 10-minute period, would be investigating the "second look" free agents.

Thanks to the Los Angeles Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet

actually, Saenz is a thoroughly professional hitter as opposed to a professional hitter

Bob's back with some juicy stuff. Franklin Stubbs, Glenn Hoffmann, a Garner-Marshall fight, omens of Kirk Gibson, an error by Bonds. And of course, Mike Ramsey! Welcome home.

The way I feel now, I'm glad I wrote this up a long time ago.

The good old days when Bonds was out of our division.

is there a link to the josh wall signing i can go too?

I like when the RDGCs are from time periods I was alive for.

Bonds was the leadoff hitter for the Pirates in 1987.

Johnny Ray batted third and "old friend" Sid Bream was the cleanup hitter.

Icaros won't like tomorrow's RDGC then. I doubt anyone will using that standard.

He will have to wait until July 16.

It's not that I don't like the other ones, it's just that I can better envision the ones with players I actually remember watching.

Any news on Drew or the player to be sent down, or will Vin tell us?

I think Icaros needs to channel the spirit of Zack Wheat to help him out.

14 - There's no information online other than what I wrote that I've seen. But I'd expect something from the beat writers later today.

Re: the link to the article about Scully...

I think the "This is L.A. Baseball" TV spots are somewhat stupid and more than a little creepy, but the one thing that I love about them is the fact that Vin Scully's voice can be heard through the whole thing. When he's telling me that this is L.A. baseball, I don't mind so much.

Vin Scully is L.A. baseball.

howd you hear about it jon? (the wall signing)

Re 22: Are the "This is LA Baseball" spots even playing anymore? Lately I've only seen the "Fun for the Whole Family" (or whatever it is) spots. Whatever you thought of "LA Baseball", and I thought the campaign was highly problematic, the new one is truly pathetic.

But, we keep losing and the turnstiles keep turning. We are the Cubs.

I guess that Robles player we saw in spring training was not a mirage. Good to know that he will be an adequate utility player. Like Vinny I was very impressed with his at bats last night.
I guess Jason Choi will be on the bench for the rest of the series since were facing Francis/Kennedy.

I'm going to take another tact to try to explain why I'm concerned about the Dodgers trading significant prospects for Adam Dunn.

First, based on the top 2004 - 2005 offseason signings, teams have paid on average $1.87 million / offensive WARP.

Prior to the season, Adam Dunn was projected by Baseball Prospectus at 6.5 WARP for 2005, 6.5 WARP for 2006, and 5.9 WARP for 2007. So far this season, Dunn has accumulated a 4.0 WARP in half a season, thus he's on pace to beat the 6.5 WARP estimate by 21.5%. Increasing the 2006 and 2007 WARP estimates correspondingly by 21.5% leads to 7.9 WARP and 7.2 WARP projections respectively. These are likely optimistic seeing as I've implicitly weighted his 2005 half season performance much higher than his previous seasons, which were accounted for in the original estimates.

My conservative assumptions are that Dunn will make $10 million in 2006 and $11 million in 2007 based on arbitration. Thus, beyond 2005, we'd be paying $22 million for 15.1 WARP, which is $1.46 million / WARP. Thus, Dunn saves the team $6.1 million for his 15.1 WARP ($0.41 million / WARP) vs. going rate on the free agent market.

Second, based on the top 2004 - 2005 offseason signings, teams have paid on average $2.16 million / pitching WARP.

Assuming that the reported Astros offer is accurate, the Dodgers would have to part with three top pitching prospects to obtain Dunn. For instance, Derek Thompson, Chad Billingsley, and Chuck Tiffany. Also, let's assume that just one of those pitchers would contribute significantly to the Dodgers pitching staff as a 4th / 5th starter. For the purpose of simplicity, we'll just take into account pre-arbitration years of 2006, 2007, and 2007. I think a fair projection for WARP contribution is 2.5 in 2006, 3.0 in 2007, and 3.5 in 2008 for approximately $0.35 million / year (pre-arbitration). That's 9.0 WARP for $1.05 million, which is $0.12 million / WARP. That saves the team $18.4 million for the 9.0 WARP ($2.04 million / WARP) vs. the going rate on the free agent market.

Looking just at 2006 and 2007, the Dodgers would pay $22 milion for 15.1 WARP for Dunn or $0.70 million for 5.5 WARP from their pitching prospects. If the Dodgers stick with the prospects, they'll have $21.3 million available in 2006 and 2007, which would obtain ~11.4 WARP on the free agent market. Thus, with the pitching prospects, the Dodgers would get about 16.9 WARP from their $22 million, whereas with Adam Dunn, the Dodgers would get about 15.1 WARP from their $22 million. Adam Dunn is obviously more of a sure thing, but the upside from the pitching prospects is much higher and the impact goes beyond 2006 and 2007.

If I felt like the Dodgers were one piece away from seriously competing this season, I would definitely go for Adam Dunn. Players are typically more expensive to trade for mid-season because there is a premium placed on that "one last piece". But, this isn't the position the Dodgers are in. Instead, I believe they should be looking primarily to 2006 and 2007. If this is the case, they would be better off either a) making a trade in the offseason when the premium on established players is not so high, or b) signing a free agent such as Brian Giles at the market rate.

25

I think Choi will be riding the pine the remainder of the season except for giving occasional rests to the others.

Of course it seems his greatest role now, as revealed last night, is "announced pinch hitter to make them change their reliever"

Xlnt analysis FB. I just posted this far more simplistic note on the prior thread...

Adam Dunn fun fact:

.246/.390/.560 - 87 k's
.950 OPS - 15th in MLB

Turn 10 k's into singles:
.284/.420/.597
1.017 OPS - 4th in MLB

10 k's in 333 PA's and you've got Albert Pujols. 10 k's to turn all the batting average witches into fairies.

So signability aside, I hereby request that all Dunn-naysayers also explain why they would prefer X prospect over Albert Pujols.

vr,
bigcpa

26-Other than Adrian Beltre and Eric Gagne, who is the last Dodger prospect to actually produce something of significance for us....way to many busts to not trade for the sure thing.

27-I think Grabowski's future lies in that role.

dunn doesnt hit singles though lol.

28

yes, but what makes Dunn so good...

RE 25, 27

This peeing match (I don't know where the profanity line is here) has gone on long enough. If Choi doesn't get a chance to play, and DePo won't fire the manager that won't give him a chance to play, why not trade him now? I like Choi as much as anybody, but how much deadweight do we need on this roster? Also one would figure he'd have pretty good value, for all the reasons that we like him (homers, walks, contract status).

Again, not advocating a trade, just saying that something's gotta give here.

23 - It's in the Dodger press notes for today, which you can gain access if you are registered at Dodgers.com. But I can't link to it.

And WARP aside- Dunn is one BIG BAD M.F. that would make watching 500 hours of baseball a year far more enjoyable. I challenge anyone here to not get chills picturing Dunn in his #44 road grays bombing balls completely beyond the hippie kayaks in McCovey Cove.

#28: If only wishes actually were singles :). If you changed 10 of Choi's Ks into singles, here's his line:

.282/.361/.510 (.871 OPS)

I doubt he'd be sitting on the bench.

Unfortunately, Adam Dunn isn't Albert Pujols and Hee Seop Choi isn't Mark Texeira.

35 -- I'm sold. Of course, I was sold already. But outdriving the hippie kayaks puts the capper on it.

#33: Yeah. I feel the same way. Especially since this season looks like it will take a miracle, let's see what we have in Choi. His upside is tremendous. Unfortunately, I'm not sure he would get decent value without some playing time. There aren't too many "new school" GMs out there.

"In a year that has been so improbable, the impossible has happened."

Vin, can I get one for 2005?

What if we changed 10 of Erickson's HRs allowed into strikeouts?

#37: That is a nice mental image, but the image of him missing a bunch of flyballs in left field is the one that haunts me.

What's wrong with Adam Dunn as just Adam Dunn? I mean I know Harold Reynolds wants the Reds to clear him out so that "All-Star" Ryan Freel can get some playing time, but for the rest of us who don't live on "Planet Second Base," I just don't see the Adam Dunn downside.

That does NOT mean we trade our ALL-FUTURE franchise-making SHORTSTOP for him.

Tiffany, Braz, and Werth. Throw in Izturis. Pisses off Plaschke, gets us Adam Dunn. It's all good.

Who needs a left fielder when we have all these alleged "ground ball" pitchers around?

28 - I'd take Dunn over any prospect in the system if they had the same salary. The complication comes when you factor in length of dodgerdom and salary.

I'm not sure how many years prospects have of minimums + arbitration years (little help?), but as far as I understand it, if we had Dunn, we'd have him at our disposal for next year and that's it. Is a year and a half of Dunn wise when your best years are ahead of you?

The players used to aquire Dunn in 2005 might be more wisely spent or USED in game in 2006 or 2007, depending on the prospects.

It's not a matter of player for player, so what's the point of explaining "why they would prefer X prospect over Albert Pujols."

Quick update to my post above. Bill Plunkett of the Register got some quotes indicating that DePodesta hasn't ruled out trying to save 2005, but that strongly imply he's not going to torch the future of the team to do so. In other words, sort of the compromise most of us have arrived at.

It also might mean that DePodesta is finding that the Reds are asking for too much for Adam Dunn.

HBP update
The Dodgers are second in the NL in HBPs now with 40, 1 behind Washington. Toronto has 44.

The LA Dodgers record is 72, set in 2003. The Dodgers are on pace for 79. The Brooklyn team record is 125 set in 1899.

However breaking the 2003 record could be iffy since two of the most "hittable" batters are JD Drew and Hee-Seop Choi. They both have five, the same number as Scrappy Repko.

I don't know if this is luck or design, but Jayson Werth has no HBPs in the regular season.

DePo just needs to make Cincy an offer they can't refuse.

Sorry, I watched The Godfather last night for the first time since I was about six-years-old.

Made a lot more sense this time around.

I feel somewhat like Michael Corleone's wife in Sicily
Except my week has gone Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Tuesday.

Just don't start the car, Bob.

Wonder what the over/under for Perez is for tonight? Hope Tracy won't have to make any BUNT decisions tonight.

#42: I think everyone falls on the side of wanting Adam Dunn on our team vs. another team. But, the question is how much is he worth and can we get him for that much. Steve, your trade makes me a little bit uncomfortable, but Izturis, Thompson, and Tiffany I would definitely do. Honestly, I just get uncomfortable seeing LaRoche, Guzman, Martin, or Billingsley in the list of candidates. I'd bet that at least one of those four becomes a perennial All-Star, and I'd rather not take a chance it's for another team.

The Nationals are now 2 ahead of the Dodgers in HBPs. Pedro Martinez just hit Jose Guillen.

The first place Nationals are batting Carlos Baerga cleanup.

Izturis could be a perrenial All-Star, and LoDuca already is.

Doesn't hurt so much.

As long as Robles keeps hitting, we won't be missing Izzy too much.

I think A. Perez or Valentin would replace Izzy...

#44: Players are under team control for their first 6 full years of service time. A player with less than 3 full years of service time can be renewed at whatever salary the team chooses. They might have to give at least a token raise (10%), but I'm not sure. The exception to this rule is Super-twos, players who have are in the top 17% of service time for players with more than 2 years of service time and less than three. Super-twos are made arbitration eligible to stop GMs from trying to get 3.99 years of pre-arbitration service time from players. After 3 years of service time, players remain arbitration eligible until they are no longer under team control.

A Perez is tailing off, predictably...Valentin isn't back yet...Robles works the pitchers the way DePo was taught should be done when he was in Oakland...

Who knows...

#53: Indeed. I meant statistical All-Stars, as opposed to overrated Joe Morgan All-Stars.

51 -- Well, FB, I would do that too, but that's precisely why the Reds won't do it. You've got to give to get.

That said, I draw the line at Guzman. When he's 42, has broken Rose's hits record, won 17 Gold Gloves at shortstop, and is closing in on A-Rod's record of 822 home runs, I'm not going to be the guy who advocated trading him for Adam Dunn.

That's why I like trades where Braz is involved. When your upside is Guillermo Mota, that's limited.

Let's just say DePo made a call to Dunn's agent under a pseudonym, say "The Sheriff." And let's just say Dunn's agent indicated #44 would sign an extension for 5 yrs/$50M upon setting foot at LAX. How would that change the debate?

This stuff must go on everyday. The Tim Hudson trade & sign being the prime suspect.

some news from the lower minors.

travis denker leads the sally league in walks. impressive for a 19 yr old.

57 - A. Perez is one of the best on the team at working pitch counts. Valentin has long been one of the best in baseball at seeing a lot of pitches per at-bat as well.

We'll see how long Robles keeps it up.

62 - they will each have their streaks

61-the type of performance a GM such as DePo would value highly

travis denker, a 21st round pick in 2003 draft at 19 yrs old as a 2b
279/404/471

blake dewitt, a 28th overall pick in the 2004 draft at 19 yrs old as a 3b
265/313/417

60 - Dunn Deal.

#57: I would estimate that Robles could keep up the following batting line, based on his current strikeout rate and a .320 BABIP:

.280/.340/.335 (.675 OPS)

Assuming Izturis' true OPS is in the range of .675 - .715, the main difference would be defense. Izturis is an above average shortstop, whereas Robles is right around average or slightly below (his Rate2 is 100 in 9 games). Overall, the difference between the two of them probably amounts to about 1 - 1.5 WARP over the course of a season.

And the three Astros prospects rumored earlier were graded by Sickels as "B" prospects. He's not the end-all of scouting, I know, but it shows the Reds shouldn't ask for our top 3 pitching prospects if there was any truth to the Astros' rumored deal.

Tiffany, Brazoban, and Orenduff would probabaly be the equivalent of the Astros offer.

Maybe Aubrey Huff makes more sense financially and prospect-wise.

And I still don't see why some people think 2007/8 is the "target" year for a run at the world series instead of next season. I know some of those prospects should be up by then, but some of our current pitchers might not look as solid three years from now. Drew might not be around. Kent will likely not be around. Bradley may or may not still be here. Who's to say that future team will have a better shot than next year's? At least we KNOW we have a solid nucleus for next season.

Ugh. Robles, Izturis. Blah. Who cares?

#65: I have been extremely impressed with Denker as well. Assuming he can handle second base defensively longterm, he should easily our make our top 30 in next year's update. Second base is turning into a pretty deep position with Delwyn Young (AA), Travis Denker (High-A), and Tony Abreu (Low-A) all playing well.

i think denker has the highest upside out of all of them, due his age vs performance in the sally league and his awesome walk rate and improving power.

70. It looks like we are well stocked with infield prospects and pretty bare with outfielders. Maybe we should start converting some of our infielders to outfielders.

I remember when we had Russell and Lopes converted to infielders. I would think that it might be easier to convert to outfielder.

Steve,

Should we convert Guzman to OF?

in two at bats today, denkers seen 14 pitches and drawn 2BBs. niceee

it was just announced Drew will not undergo surgery

And the guy leaving the roster to make room for Odalis Perez is ....

Cesar Izturis, who is on the DL.

Drew's wrist will not need surgery and he should return in two months.

Which means he's gone until May 2006 I assume.

when will we release scott erickson. this is getting to the point where i am starting to question depos sanity.

76. aw, izturis went on the DL? man, so anti-climactic.

Erickson has more lives than a three-headed cat.

By my count that would be 27.

#71: Nate, thanks for being subtle in pointing out my mistake :). Tony Abreu is in High-A and Travis Denker is in Low-A. I would say Delwyn Young has a higher offensive upside, assuming he can stick at second base, which is a huge assumption. They're somewhat difficult to compare, because Young was a year older when he was in the Sally League, but he posted a .323/.381/.542 batting line.

I think if Kent and Phillips can find their way to the DL every starting position player will have been there--before the all-star break. Absent a bus crash with the whole team on board, I wonder if that has ever happened before.

If were going to talk deals can we deal in reality. If were going to trade with the Reds the last thing they want is our SS. I know most of you only pay attention to the Dodgers and feel everyone else is inferior but in case you didn't notice the Reds do have an All-Star SS. Felipe Lopez may come down to earth but in the meantime he has been and is currently the best SS in the NL and no one else is even close. They aren't going to be trading for our SS this summer. What they don't have is pitching, pitching, catching, 2nd base, pitching, pitching. Get the drift.
I've got no problem trading some pitching for hitting as prospect pitching is a crap shoot. A choice between Broxton/Billingsly, add in D Thompson, and Navarro or Martin might do the trick.

Cesar's last game was Wednesday, June 29. Fifteen days on the DL takes him out of the All-Star game.

# 72 - D Young will be converted to OF very shortly I expect.

#76/78: I'm glad they put Izturis on the DL. Hamstring injuries are really tricky and it's much better to be conservative. It's also easier to be conservative when Izturis has gotten 3 hits in his past 4,006 ABs.

We still have W Alveraz to save the day and make Scotty a moot point.

They're somewhat difficult to compare, because Young was a year older when he was in the Sally League, but he posted