The worst two teams in the National League duked it out at Crosley Field and saw a game befitting both teams as the Reds went through four pitchers, but held on for a 6-5 win over the Dodgers. The Dodgers fell to 36-47 and were 13 ½ games behind the Giants and in seventh place.
Brooklyn scored twice in the first and knocked out Reds starter Silas Johnson after just 1/3 of an inning. Ray Kolp relieved and pitched 6 2/3 innings and gave up just one run during that time.
Meanwhile, the Reds went to work on Dodgers starter Walter "Boom Boom" Beck. The Reds scored a run in the second on a ground out. In the second, Kolp singled and came around to score on a home run by Chick Hafey.
In the seventh, the Reds broke a 3-3 tie when third baseman Sparky Adams squeezed home Jo-Jo Morrissey. In the eighth, Beck gave up a run and was sent to the showers in favor of Rosy Ryan who gave up another run to make it 6-3 Cincinnati.
Cincinnati manager Donie Bush brought in reliever Bobby Smith to start the 8th and he faltered in the 9th. He walked two, made an error and then a single by Dodger third baseman Joe Stripp made it 6-5. Bush pulled Smith and brought in Paul Derringer, who was going to suffer through a 7-27 season. But Derringer was able to strike out Hack Wilson to end the game.
The Dodgers finished 1933 with a terrible 65-88 record and 26 ½ games behind the Giants in sixth place. It was quite a disappointment after the Dodgers third place finish the previous year and the second division finish cost manager Max Carey his job after the season.
1933 was the first year of the All-Star Game. The Dodgers representative that year was second baseman Tony Cuccinello, who batted .252 with 9 home runs. Outfielder Johnny Frederick batted .308 and catcher Al Lopez batted .301.
The pitching staff was nothing special. Beck went 12-20. Ownie Carroll was 13-15. Van Lingle Mungo had a respectable 16-15 record with a 2.72 ERA.
There was going to be a new manager coming to Brooklyn in 1934. He would be a famous name, but he wouldn't be a famous manager until long after he left the Dodgers.
Thanks to the New York Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet
Minor League Update
Statistical summary format is AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA/IP/K/BB for pitchers.
Las Vegas 51s (AAA):
The 51s beat Colorado Springs 6 - 1.
Milton Bradley came on as a pinch-hitter in the top of the 4th and stayed on in center field for his third rehab appearance. Bradley went 2 for 3 with a run scored, an RBI, and a caught stealing (.375/.375/.375). Bradley's two singles came facing right-handed pitching, the first two left-handed at-bats of his rehab stint. Jose Valentin started at third base, going 2 for 3 with a double, a homerun, a run scored, and 2 RBIs (.600/.600/1.400). Valentin was pulled for a defensive replacement to start the bottom of the 5th. Second baseman Willy Aybar went 2 for 4 with a walk, a double, and a run scored (.298/.366/.441). First baseman Norihiro Nakamura went 0 for 5 (.271/.337/.538). Nakamura moved to third base to fill in for Valentin. Center fielder Todd Donovan went 2 for 4 with a walk and a run scored (.351/.419/.378). Backup catcher Mike Nixon went 2 for 3 with a walk and 2 runs scored (.195/.236/.232).
Starting pitcher Harold Eckert pitched a magnificent game, allowing just 1 run over 7 innings of high altitude baseball in Colorado Springs. Eckert gave up just 2 hits (1 homerun) and a walk while striking out 10 (5.12/91.1/87/41). Relievers Beau Dannemiller (6.35/11.1/12/8) and Pat Mahomes (5.22/70/51) eached pitched an inning of scoreless relief to complete the game.
Jacksonville Suns (AA):
The Suns lost 3 - 2 to Birmingham.
The Suns weren't able to get much going against Birmingham pitching, managing just 7 hits and 2 walks. First baseman James Loney had 3 of the Suns hits, going 3 for 4 with a double and a run scored (.279/.360/.396). Second baseman Delwyn Young went 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored (.292/.344/.477). Young has been playing well enough for a promotion and at 23 years old, the challenge would likely be good for him. Young is already on the 40-man roster so he could see some major league action once rosters expand. Catcher Russell Martin, third baseman Andy LaRoche, shorstop Joel Guzman, and right fielder Justin Ruggiano went a combined 0 for 16 with 9 strikeouts. Martin (.313/.435/.415), LaRoche (.297/.373/.527), and Ruggiano (.273/.333/.364) each struck out twice, dropping LaRoche's average below .300 for the first time since joining Jacksonville. Guzman struck out three times and committed his 23rd error in the field (.282/.346/.489).
Starting pitcher Eric Hull pitched 6 quality innings, allowing 2 runs (both earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts (3.66/91.0/94/37). Jason Olson pitched 2.2 innings, allowing 1 run (earned) on 2 hits (1 homerun) and a walk with 1 strikeout (5.34/59.0/54/35). Olson, a 27 year old right-hander, is one of the few non-prospects on the Suns team. Left-hander Carlos Alvarez came on as a LOOGy to get the last out in the 9th with a man on second (4.32/8.1/12/1). Alvarez allowed a hit to the only batter he faced, but left fielder Nick Alvarez nailed the baserunner at home to end the inning.
Vero Beach Dodgers (High-A):
The Dodgers won 11 - 5 over Dunedin.
Every starter except third baseman Jimmy Rohan reached base in the game, as the Dodgers combined for 17 hits and 2 walks. Second baseman Tony Abreu went 5 for 6 with a double, a homerun, 3 runs scored, and 5 RBIs (.327/.354/.452). Shortstop Chin-lung Hu went 4 for 5 with a double, 2 runs scored, and 2 RBIs (.294/.334/.418). Hu is likely the Dodgers shorstop of the future if Guzman is defensively unable to play the position. Hu's defensive skills are well regarded and he has a little pop in his bat (.124 ISOp). Right fielder Matt Kemp went 2 for 5 with a double and 2 RBIs (.293/.329/.598). Designated hitter Cory Dunlap went 0 for 3 with a walk, a sacrifice fly, a run scored, and a strikeout (.277/.371/.367).
Starting pitcher Danny Muegge received a no-decision allowing 3 runs (earned) in 6 innings pitched. Muegge did not pitch particularly well, allowing 9 hits (1 homerun) and a walk while only striking out 1 (3.48/75.0/48/24). Justin Simmons relieved, allowing a hit-by-pitch and a double and only registering one out (4.03/48.0/33/19). Casey Hoorelbeke allowed the inherited runner to score on a wild pitch, but then proceeding to shut Dunedin down for 1.2 perfect innings with 2 strikeouts (1.80/60.0/43/24). Hoorelbeke, a 25 year old right-hander, attributes his success this season to dropping down and throwing sidearm. Jonathan Figueroa pitched a scoreless 9th, allowing just 2 hits with no strikeouts (4.88/59.0/40/40). The appearance was only Figueroa's second relief appearance of the year, with 12 of his previous appearances coming as a starter. Figueroa, a 21 year old right-hander, was signed by the Dodgers as an amateur free agent in 2002. So far, he has taken a slow path through the minors, spending 2 years in the Sally League before being promoted to Ver Beach late last year.
Columbus Catfish (Low-A):
Columbus lost both games of a double-header against Kannapolis.
In the first game, shortened to 7 innings, Columbus lost 7 - 2.
Travis Denker started at designated hitter and went 2 for 3 with a walk and a double (.291/.407/.526). Third baseman Blake Dewitt went 0 for 4 (.267/.316/.415). Right fielder Sergio Pedroza had the most frustrating game, going 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts (.263/.300/.316). After dominating the Pioneer League, Pedroza now has 7 strikeouts in 19 at-bats with Columbus.
Starter Chad Bailey did not make it out of the third inning, allowing 5 runs (2 earned) on 8 hits an no walks with 1 strikeout (7.64/22.2/14/8). Liam O'Flaherty pitched the last 4.2 innings in relief. O'Flaherty allowed 2 runs (both earned) on 3 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts (3.75/12.0/12/8).
In the second game, shortened to 7 innings, Columbus lost 2 - 1 in the first inning of bonus baseball.
The Catfish managed just 1 run while stranding 11 baserunners on 4 hits, 7 walks, 1 hit-by-pitch, and a Kannapolis error. Second baseman Travis Denker went 0 for 2 with 2 walks, a strikeout and a caught stealing (.291/.407/.526). Third basemann Blake Dewitt had 2 of the Catfish's 4 hits and scored the Catfish's only run. Overall, Dewitt was 2 for 3 with a walk (.267/.316/.415). Sergio Pedroza did not play in the second game of the double-header.
Starter Christopher Malone pitched a great game, but was left with nothing to show for it. Malone allowed just 1 run (earned) over 6 innings on 5 hits (1 homerun) and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts (3.95/98.0/89/30). Albenis Castillo was tagged with the loss allowing 1 run (earned) on 2 hits and 2 walks with 1 strikeout (2.56/38.2/32/16).
Ogden Raptors (Rookie):
The Raptors got crushed 12 - 3 by Helena.
The best offensive performance came from second baseman Jesus Soto. Soto went 2 for 4 with a double and 2 runs scored (.300/.339/.473). Shortstop Juan Rivera went 0 for 3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts (.261/.350/.330). Designated hitter David Sutherland went 2 for 4 with a walk and a run scored (.429/.508/.495). Third baseman Russell Mitchell went 1 for 4 with 2 RBIs and a strikeout (.330/.362/.642). Catcher Juan Apodaca went 1 for 4 with a strikeout (.313/.337/.625).
Three Ogden pitchers combined for terrible pitching performance from start to finish. Starter Marlon Arias took the loss, allowing 7 runs (4 earned) over 4.1 innings on 9 hits (2 homeruns) with 2 strikeouts (4.32/25.0/28/9). Cody White came on in relief to allow 3 runs (all earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks with 1 strikeout (7.71/23.1/19/16). Nathan Hochgesang finished the game, allowing another 2 runs (unearned) on 5 hits with 1 strikeout (4.00/18.0/12/7).
GCL Dodgers (Rookie):
The Dodgers lost 4 - 3 to the GCL Nationals.
Left fielder Scott Van Slyke started his first game with the GCL Dodgers. Van Slyke went 1 for 4 with a strikeout (.200/.200/.200). Third baseman Carlos Santana went 1 for 4 with a double, an RBI, and a strikeout (.333/.378/.513). Catcher Kenley Janson went 0 for 2 with a walk, a run scored, and a strikeout (.324/.342/.514). Eduardo Perez came on as a pinch-hitter, going 0 for 1 (.309/.397/.436). Designated hitter Matt Paul went 1 for 3 with 2 RBIs (.188/.188/.188).
Charles Dani pitched three scoreless innings, allowing just 1 walk while striking out 2 (5.95/19.2/15/8). Juan Flores pitched 1.2 innings of relief, allowing 3 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits, 2 walks, and 2 HBPs, with 1 strikeout (10.80/6.2/6/5). Wilfredo Diaz pitched 2.1 perfect innings of relief, striking out 2 (2.38/11.1/10/4). Gary Paris pitched 1.2 innings, giving up the winning run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th. The run was unearned on a strikeout wild-pitch followed by an errant pickoff attempt followed by a sacrifice fly. Frank Robinson would be proud of his little Nationals. Overall, Paris gave up 2 hits and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts (5.84/12.1/14/12).
#3: I believe that the arbitration salary has a floor of 80% of the current salary. If that's the case, I don't see any way the Dodgers would offer Dreifort arbitration. Additionally, Dreifort's performance will likely not make him worthy of any draft picks, so offering arbitration would have no benefit for the Dodgers. The Dodgers may consider signing him to a minor league deal if he was interested in coming back, but I don't expect much more than that.
Isn't Dreifort through? I heard he's had so many body parts replaced and/or operated on that he's basically bionic... of course, he's no $6M Man, let alone a $55M one.
I guess the point of the joke was lost on those who don't instantly see a comparison between a pitcher whose signing was an epic joke and a pitcher who has actually been pretty good for the Dodgers, at a decent price.
Dodger fans used to be like Yankee fans. They assumed that because a player put on the Dodger uniform, it meant they were good. Otherwise, why would Campanis get him? Now we're more like long-time Cubs or Red Sox fans. We see a player in a Dodger uniform, and the first thought is, "what's wrong with this guy? How'd we get stuck with him"
My impression is also that Dreifort will finally retire after this season. In addition to all the knee problems that sidelined him, I think he also has the degenerative hip condition that ended Paul Shuey's career.
507 IP inn 2003, 2004, & 2005
Has not been on the DL in 2004 or 2005.
Pitcher B:
112 IP in 2003, 2004, & 2005
Spent all of 2005 recovering from multiple knee surgeries. Believed to have a degenerative tissue condition leading to general structural instability.
16- Not personal at all. I just think that a $10MM pitcher should be an ace, regardless of market fluctuations, percieved value, or whatever. I am genuinely surprised at the level of support that Weaver gets around here, when having him hang on for another year would be one of the biggest mistakes the Dodgers could make.
#14: I have a tough time figuring out how those numbers are a better option than Weaver.
There are two reasons the Dodgers will offer Weaver arbitration if he finishes the season with us.
1) Signing him for 1 year, even at $10 million is more valuable to the team than signing a multi-year deal with a similar caliber pitcher for less money per year. This is because we have a number of pitching prospects who will not be ready for 2006, but will be knocking on the door in 2007.
2) If Weaver does not sign with us, he'll likely be a Type A free agent, meaning we'll get a 1st round pick plus a 1st round supplemental pick from the team who signs him.
Comparing Weaver to other pitchers does nothing to counter either of these two points. If the Dodgers were considering signing Weaver to a multi-year, $10 million / year deal I would agree with you, but that's not what we're currently discussing.
#17: I agree that the market is ridiculous, but either we decide to go with a 4-man rotation next year, or we're going to have to deal with it. If the Dodgers don't get Burnett, there's practically no difference between Weaver and the other remaining pitching options. All I'm saying is that a 1 year / $10 million deal is much more valuable than a 3 year / $25 million deal (pretty much the market rate) because of the flexibility it provides. Add on top of that the opportunity to get draft picks if Weaver signs with someone else and it's a no-brainer to offer Weaver arbitration.
19 - There's nothing wrong with offering him arbitration. However, I think it's likely that we could get a greater value for him in trade than a first-round pick would net us, i.e., a player that can contribute in 2006 and 2007.
This assumes the team has a plan to fill out the rotation next year without him. I'd rather have a good young pitcher (even a bullpen arm) or quality LF than a draft pick, assuming a Weaver trade could net one or the other.
FB, kindly explain to me what the issue is with this rotation:
- Penny
- Lowe
- Perez
- Houlton
- Thompson, or Carlyle, or Mahomes, or Venafro, or Jackson, or Alvarez/Dessens, or a cardboard cutout of Darren Dreifort.
We clear up some budget room, we arguably don't have much worse of a rotation, we give the Vegas crew some valuable experience while at the tail end of the rotation, and we have the ability to go out and improve the offense. I certainly see that as better than Penny, Lowe, Perez, Weaver, and Houlton, with a smaller amount of flexibility in terms of upgrading the team.
22 - a problem with that is Carlyle, Mahomes, Venafro, Jackson, Alvarez, and a cutout of Dreifort can't start at the ML level for a lack of skill or health. It also leaves us no passable options as fill-ins if (when) pitchers get hurt, because the fill-in types have been pressed into regular service.
A team with that rotation would need to score a ton of runs to be above-average.
Offering arbitration is a no-brainer here. Weaver is pitching just well enough that a one year contract (which I don't think would be at 10 million in arbitration) would not kill us (not like Lowe is going to), while his turning it down (which he will almost certainly do, given that he will certainly get at least a Perez/Milton multi-year) will get us the draft picks. That's the easy part.
The good news is that Weaver has pitched well enough to help us out in the sense of making that decision easy. He has also made the decision easy as far as a multi-year from us. What I'm hearing about Weaver right now is the same as how Malone defended the Dreifort contract. I can't believe after Dreifort and Park and Brown and Lowe, we would repeat the process for...Jeff Weaver?
#22: As a starter, Houlton has a 5.21 ERA. I'm fine with that for a 5th starter on a rebuilding team, but it's pretty terrible for a 4th starter on a team that hopes to contend. Houlton has shown flashes of potential and I expect him to improve next year but not by much since he's turning 26 in August.
Thompson could likely perform similarly to Houlton as a 5th starter, but not any better seeing as he's allowed way to many baserunners both with Las Vegas and with Los Angeles (over 1.5 / IP). Buddy Carlyle has already proven he can't handle major league batters. Pat Mahomes was moved to the bullpen in Las Vegas because he's not any good. Mike Venafro is a situational lefty, who's also not very good. Edwin Jackson can't even strike out AA batters consistently at this point. Wilson Alvarez can't start due to injury concerns that have popped up multiple times and are likely to require offseason surgery. Elmer Dessens has consistently been better out of the bullpen, and isn't very good. Additionally, I don't even think the Dodgers will pick up his 2006 option. Darren Dreifort I won't even get into.
The following rotation is not only better in every way, it's also deeper:
Penny
Lowe
Perez
Weaver
Houlton / Thompson
If we had a rotation of Penny, Lowe, Perez, Houlton, Thompson as you suggested, we would have very little pitching depth to deal with adversity, which as we've seen this year is a must.
And it's depressing to think that the starting rotation might be the same as this year's. Blah. Yuck. Ptooey. We're not going anywhere until Broxingsley gets up here.
Crunched some more numbers today, filling out a complete lineup with the same player netted these average runs per game (simulation size: 30,000 games, using 2005 stats as data).
Conclusions: Unless Izturis turns it around Robles is a much better option. At the very least Izturis should be dropped in the lineup and he and Phillips should hit 7th and 8th. With Drew, Bradley and Valentin all out the Dodgers lose quite a bit of firepower. Two of the top 6 are first basemen, would be nice to move the older of the two for whatever we could get. With Grabowski being sent to the minors, Phillips becomes the new worst hitter that gets playing time.
Conclusions: NL West can't hit a lick.
Note: This is from computer sims, and I'm not claiming it to be incredibly accurate or even have any scientific significance. :)
vr, Xei
30. haha! Grabowski does have the strange line this year of only hitting either a single or a home run. Kind of odd that his hits were distributed like that this year (small sample size).
vr, Xei
#28: It is somewhat depressing, but the bullpen should be a lot better and we should be able to add an impact bat to the offense. I'd say this year's team was expected to win about .540 and next year's team could easily kick that up to .565.
32. we should be able to add an impact bat to the offense
Which position would you try to add that impact bat at? LF? make Werth your 4th OFer? 3B? How many years is Valentin signed for? C? relegate Phillips to backup, do you want to block Navarro? Thoughts.
vr, Xei
30 - Well, yeah, some games he hits 2 homeruns, some he hits 3... he strikes-out looking the rest of the time. Could we get an animated version of Xei's program? I'd love to see a simulated "Grabowski Stare of Disbelief".
Col Blue, you are a little more optimistic than me about Penny's Over/Under line tonight. I am going with 6 1/3 due to the Philly offense more than anything else. Good luck with your 7 1/3 pick.
vr, Xei
33 - Werth is cheap enough that we can relegate him to a 4th/5th OF spot and pursue a top-25 outfielder in LF. I still am a Werth optimist, but he looked TERRIBLE in recent games, especially in the Friday Giants game, when I was sitting close to home plate. His bat never came within 6 inches of the ball.
Valentin is on a 1-year deal. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back at $1.5-2.5M if we don't land a top-10 3B.
I hope Phillips get hot and we can trade him during the offseason, or even before the August 31 waiver deadline. I was excited to have Phillips this season as our 8 hitter - he's a league-average catcher for a league-minimum salary. He'll be arbitration eligible after the season, and I think it's likely that Navarro could match his production next year. Factor in the presence of Martin, and we should probably get Navarro enough playing time to pump up his trade value. If for some reason Martin doesn't pan out or stalls in the minors, we can keep Navarro.
Most significantly, we need a lineup where our SS or catcher can be the #8 hitter. We were in that position at the start of the season, and the deep lineup scored a lot of runs.
Yeah Xei, I hemmed-and-hawed alot over this one. Penny's been going between 6 and 7 frequently enough and I decided that since he only pitched 2 innings on his last start he may have more arm. That and I generally think he's p* off. I actually debated 8, but like you pointed out, Philly's O is strong.
#39: I agree. Left field has been our biggest hole, especially in terms of production relative to average. If we could get a top outfielder it would have the largest impact on our offensive output. Werth could then move into a 4th OF role or perhaps platoon with Choi at 1B. Even last year when Werth was "good", the primary thing he did well was crush LHP. Additionally, outfield currently has the least depth in the minors, though that may change if some middle-infielders to remain nameless move there. I would try to sign Giles to a 3-year deal in the offseason, but if we can't get him for whatever reason, I think a 2-year deal for Matt Lawton would be a decent plan B. Lawton would be a great top-of-the-lineup type hitter to complement our already potent middle-of-the-order (Bradley, Drew, & Kent). I would be reasonably happy with the following lineup for next year:
#42: I should have added that the only difference is that I would keep Phillips. He'll likely get $1.25 - $1.75 million in arbitration, but he'll provide good protection in case our rookie catchers struggle. I'm not confident that either of them will be able to exceed Phillip's offensive production next year. Even if they do, Phillips would still be useful as a backup catcher.
#44,
That should crack the top 100 reasons we can still passionately watch the Dodgers. We should tell Scott Long.
By the way, this is off topic, but is there a website that calculates the expected win outcome for you (freely available to all)? I know I saw something like that referenced at the Hardball Times but I couldn't find it.
I think Kent could make the switch to 1st and Perez's glove will improve at 2nd. I'm assuming LF is filled by a trade of either or both of Weaver and Izturis; LF could move up in the order depending upon who said LF turns out to be. Plus you have an infield that can be rottated around pretty easily to give Choi and Saenz playing time. Also, Ledee and Werth as 4/5 outfielders is not bad insurance.
#47,
Exactly what I was looking for! Thanks, Xeifrank. By the way, how did you come up with your "speed" data for your program? Did you just make it up according to how fast people looked? ie, Bradley faster than Philips?
Off topic, but does anybody have any idea what Paul DePodesta's email address could be? What do you think the suffix could be? I've already tried paul.depodesta@dodgers.com and paul.depodesta@losangelesdodgers.com
What a find it would be to send him some of our ideas.
vr, Xei
48. Yeah, I just eye balled it from watching them run the bases. The higher speed rating you have the higher the percentages you have of taking an extra base. Not an exact science, but a quick and simple solution.
vr, Xei
50. I don't want to make his "Ignore" list. In the past I have actually corresponded two times with Mark Cuban. He stopped returning my emails. I guess I should've stopped calling him names! :)
vr, Xei
46 - Moving Kent to 1st hurts the team in the aggregate. His "awesome" bat becomes "average" relative to the position, and he can still play 2B just fine. I also think we should count on Perez remaining as a backup. A very capable backup, at that. Choi/platoonmate plus Kent should outperform Kent plus Perez significantly over the course of a season.
#52
Yeah I know what you mean. It would be pretty cool if he'd return emails from us. I get the feeling it could be a little rude though. Relaying him ideas he probably already has considered and all. Still, it'd be nice if he could "leak" things that continue to be unexplained...
53 - I'm not convinced that Kent/1B Platoon is better than Perez/Kent. Sure, the numbers might currently support it, but I don't think the there is enough data yet. If it weren't for Saenz's at 1B it wouldn't even be an issue and we know Saenz is not cut out to play more than 30 - 40% of the time. Plus, I think you can Kent for another year or 2 at 1B.
First, I like reading the posts here and respect the rationales behind everyone's opinions.
That written, TJ Simers is right: Dodgers fans (me included) are getting hopelessly out of touch with the reality of what a good Major League product looks like. To be content with a lineup that includes Robles, Valentin, Perez and Choi when there are better players -- considerably better ones -- available through trade or FA is ... well, settling.
Let's open the checkbooks. Spend some money. Trade some prospects and suspects for players that can make a difference. "This is L.A. Baseball," for heaven's sake.
Or is what we're seeing today "L.A. Baseball"? I hope not.
#55: Actually, more data is likely to show a Choi platoon at 1B with Kent at 2B to be even better than it currently appears. Choi has had a lot of bad luck offensively (see just about every study Hardball Times publishes) and Perez has had an even larger amount of good luck. Choi has put up very respectable numbers in his half of the 1B platoon, an .831 OPS. Even without Saenz we should be able to find someone to take over the other side (Jayson Werth, perhaps?) assuming Choi is never given a chance against LHP.
Your argument about Kent finishing his career at 1B is fine, but Kent is only signed for one more year, so why move him?
#57: Actually, what I think we're seeing is "Centinella Hospital Baseball". This season is already a bust, so there's no reason to sink a bunch of prospects in the process.
#62,
The average 1B hits better than the average 2B. Kent is a way above average 2B (offensively), but not so much at 1B.
Maybe his offensive numbers as a 1B won't be a downgrade from current production, but Perez's numbers will be a downgrade from his. That's the big thing about having Kent as a 2B. It's easier to find a decent bat at 1B than it is at 2B.
57 - I had a discussion with a friend last night who had a somewhat similar sentiment as yours. He argued that the Dodgers should be spending more money on better players. Specifically, he wanted a better 1B, LF, and 3B (although he agreed that Beltre at $74M wasn't The Answer).
The point I disagreed on was that 'better' players aren't as readily available as we like to think. Name the Top 10 3B in baseball: off the top of my head, I get ARod, Rolen, Chavez, Ramirez, Glaus, Mora, perhaps adding Ensberg. That's not even 10 guys. How many of them were available last offseason? Just Glaus, who's making $40M over 4 seasons in AZ. How many of these players do you think would be easy to pry from their current teams for a fair price?
How many Top 1B were available last offseason? I can think of Delgado and Sexson. They're both playing pretty well, but are 33 and 31 years old, respectively, and will be in their late 30s by the end of their multi-year deals paying $10M+ per season. Should the Dodgers have overpaid (and that's what would have been required) to sign one of them, when our 1B platoon has been quite good this season for clsoe to free?
The point is, it's easy to identify players that are somehow better than what we've got. They're just not always available. As a GM, why would you trade away a good player with a good contract?
National League first basemen not named Derek Lee or Albert Pujols have been a rather indistinguished lot this year.
Phil Nevin
Chad Tracy
JT Snow
Todd Helton
Lance Berkman
Whoever plays first for Pittsburgh
Lyle Overbay (who's not bad)
Sean Casey
Whomever Frank Robinson picks that day
Julio Franco
Phillies first baseman of the day
Carlos Delgado
The less said about the Mets first basemen, the better
Are we sure Perez is doomed to regress to '03 numbers? I would say we can't make that determination yet. Yes, his numbers are a downgrades from Kent's, but they may remain an upgrade vs. Izturis. So might Roble's... with all of JT's musical chair playing we'll never know anyway because Kent's the only infielder who will ever play every day... and I hate that!
Three of those four are the only players on the Dodgers who should give us hope. Valentin, not so much. I would love to hear Simers's defense of Cesar Newman, um, I mean, Izturis.
69 - Between Perez and Izturis and Robles is definitely a different question.
True, but what I'm hoping for is an end to platooning as we know it... if Kent's at 2B then the rest of the infield is awfully crowded. I would like to see Robles/Perez get consistent playing time (and no, not by JT's standards). But alas, you are correct about the offensive numbers being better with Kent at 2B...
#66: I think that Perez's numbers will likely end up closer to his 2003 numbers then his 2005 numbers. His 2003 numbers match up with what you would expect based on his peripherals (K/AB, BB/AB, HR/AB). None of those peripherals have changed, so I think he's playing a fair bit over his head right now.
#75: San Diego may have to choose between Ramon Hernandez and Brian Giles. Considering they actually have some depth in the outfield, they could very well choose Hernandez.
DePo should have a fair amount to play with for his 2006 roster. If McCourt is serious about $100 million payroll, then we have 12 million available to get to that point. We will not be paying Green $10 MM next year and will save $5 MM more on Dreifort. Valentine is $3.5 MM and Weaver is $8 MM. We would have to fill 3B, 1B, LF, SP and hopefully a catcher who can throw from home to second faster than Saenz can run the ball there. We have our own prospects along with trades or FA's to fill those spots and $38 million available. If the talent is out there, $38 million per year should be able to fill 3 or 4 of those spots with excellent talent.
Luck and a successful first baseman - First thing that came to mind, is that my boss doesn't care about my bad luck, he just wants results. Choi probably gives as much bad luck on defense, as he is given on offense.
Catcher is the last place we want to sign free agents, unless they are one year fill-ins, and we already have a one year fill-in level catcher with Phillips. Between Martin and Navarro, catching will be fine.
The only 1B available who would be better than Choi for the price is Adam Dunn, who would probably go on Tracy's "non-professional hitters" list.
We need pitching, pitching, a left fielder, a shortstop, pitching, and pitching, not in any particular order
After Burnett, what other starting pitcher is there to go for?
Billingsley, Tiffany, Hochevar, Jackson, et. al. Major League starting pitchers are crap on a stick anyway. I think we have to get through at least 2006 before our staff is in any shape to truly compete for the championship, and not just the lame NL West.
57. Who do you suggest you pickup to replace Valentin, Perez, Robles and Choi... and make sure you compare the cost to your four FA/Trade replacements to the four you mentioned.
vr, Xei
Eric Byrnes to either St. Louis, Cleveland, Atlanta, Houston, or the Yankees
Danys Baez to either Washington, Florida, Boston, Atlanta, or the White Sox
AJ Burnett to (take a deep breath) Baltimore, Boston, San Diego, Toronto, LA (both of 'em!), White Sox
Billy Wagner to Boston
Mike Lowell to Baltimore or Pittsburgh
Shawn Chacon to Texas, San Diego, or the Yankees
Barry Larkin to Washington (coming out of retirement)
Juan Encarnacion to St. Louis or the Yankees
Juan Pierre to the Cubs
JC Romero to Boston Adam Dunn to the Mets, Astros, or Dodgers
Ken Griffey to the Yankees or White Sox
Jason Schmidt to Washington, Texas, Yankees, White Sox, or Boston
Shingo Takatsu to Minnesota, San Diego, or the White Sox
Randy Winn to the Yankees
According to my sim, a lineup of 9 Adam Dunn's (given his 2005 stats, not ballpark adjusted) would net an average of 8.458 runs per game. From earlier calculations the only Dodger who outdid those numbers was JD Drew at 8.855
Conclusion: Dunn would be a nice fit, but at what cost? I think his contract is fine, I think his defense in LF is liveable considering the damage he does at the plate. I just worry about giving up too many of our pitching prospects as that is what we are really counting on for 2007 and beyond...
vr, Xei
Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn
#119: TINSTAAPP is why you have to stock up on many pitching prospects instead of attaching your carriage to one. Last year there was one top-of-the-rotation pitcher available (Martinez). This year it's likely to be the same (Burnett). So, unless we want to start paying $13 million a year for an Ace, I'd say we better hold onto as many potential top-of-the-rotation starters as we can.
130. Let's throw in Phillips, Edwards and Repko too. Why take out half the garbage when you can take out the whole can. Which brings up the famous proverb... is your garbage can half empty or half full?
vr, Xei
well, we don't get rid of ALL of 'em. just a couple. and we can toss in izturis and weaver. they don't all project to be #1s anyway. we should keep billingsley and miller and hochevar if he signs. that's a pretty good crop. and whatever is left can fill out the rest of the rotation, plus whatever we've got through free agents. our infield is gonna be stacked already, and we'll have drew and probably bradley too for a while, and guzman. we don't need to keep every single prospect we have. we're not starting a collection of hot minor leaguers; the point is to have the best major league team we have, both now AND in the future. i want to win the world series in 2006.
136 - I looked. It's tough to find. My understanding is that a lineup of replacement-level players and pitchers would win ~ 50 games per year. Perhaps Xei can reverse-engineer that figure into some kind of stat line using the Xeifrank LineupMaster Pro 2005 software program?
You can also look up players that have a 0.00 VORP. Their stat line should be indicative of what replacement-level looks like at their position. There are many ways a player can stoop (or rise) to replacement-level, such as low OBP or low SLG, so the exact lines can vary somewhat while still yielding net zero marginal offensive contribution.
I believe the stats of the replacement level player depends on the stats of all the players in the pool of players, and it's usually broken down by position. The replacement level for 1B is different than that of SS or OF. I am more use to calculating replacment level values as it pertains to evaluation fantasy baseball players. If you have 16 teams, the replacement level would that of the value of the 16th most valuable player. Each player's replacement value is determined by his or her value minus the value of the replacement level player at his or her position. I have a program that calculates it for fantasy baseball and the download is available along with a description at http://tinyurl.com/77ne
Curiously, in the above column, Rino doesn't mention the Dodgers at all--not as buyers, not as sellers. Teams needing starting pitching: Yankees, Orioles, Rangers, Padres, White Sox. Implicitly, the Phillies and A's, though he doesn't dwell on it (the column is not for deep thinkers.) Teams needing bullpen help: D-backs, Red Sox, Cubs.
No one seems to need a shortstop. Power from a third baseman and/or corner outfielder will be sought by several teams, including the Cardinals, Twins and Nats.
Jeff Weaver, Derek Lowe, Odalis Perez, Yhency Brazoban, Olmedo Saenz, Gio Carrara, Duaner Sanchez, Ricky Ledee, Jayson Werth. If we don't find a way to fix things for 2006 by trading at least four of the above nine players, then someone's asleep at the switch.
For the Nationals, Guzman benched, Carroll at short leading off. AND Castilla benched (hurt? embarrassed?) and Baerga starts at third. Wow. Quick, Olmedo, pass the Cheerios.
(I know, I know, it's not Nationals Thoughts, but Steve and Bob both seem to like to play.)
168. The program is rather long but pretty straightforward to how it works. Enter lineups and stats into text ascii file, program then simulates 9 innings of at bats for that linuep and does this 30,000 times and comes up with an average runs scored per game.
1. Computer generates random number between 1 and 1,000, if number is less than or equal to the players OBP (whole number of) then he gets on base.
2. If the number was between the batting average and the OBP it is a walk, otherwise it is a hit. Then if a hit, determine what kind of hit based on the players ratio of 1b/h, 2b/h, 3b/h, hr/h (use another random number to determine what kind of hit). Then move runners accordingly, with players with higher speed ratings having a higher percent chance of taking an extra base.
3. If it was an out. All outs are currently programmed as a strike out / or no runner advancing and no double plays.
4. When 3 outs are made begin a new inning and repeat step #1.
that's the basics.
vr, Xei
172. I agree. If Perez can play LF then start him over Repko and move Werth to CF. If Perez can play 2B, then move Robles to SS and put Izturis on the trade block.
vr, Xei
174. I don't compute that. I am writing a sim to nominate supreme court justices though. I forwarded my nominees to Bush an hour ago. I have Gonzalez, Pujols and some guy named Steve, but not necessarily in that order.
vr, Xei
I hope everyone remembers how much Drew- and Kent-bashing was going on six months ago here and elsewhere.
I keep going back and forth on Dunn, but Xei's numbers pretty much make the case for him. But how do we get him without giving up your 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers? Don't see Weaver, Izzy or anyone else on our current roster as desirable to a team like the Reds except as a throw-in.
173 - Your step 2 has all sorts of flaws that basically invalidate your final number-- but you already knew that. Here are a couple of suggestions.
First, you can't select a random number to determine the kind of hit; what you really need to do is to simulate plays on a pitch-by-pitch basis rather than a play-by-play basis. An 0-2 count is less likely to produce a home run than a 3-1 count, for example.
Second, if you aren't simulating the location of your hits, then your extra base algorithm is fairly useless. Nobody will go first-to-third on a hit that drops in front of the left fielder, but a faster player will try to go first-to-third on a hit just out of the right fielder's reach.
If you run the sim on a pitch-by-pitch basis, including likelihood of pitch locations and likelihood of where the ball is hit (and here's where defensive range of your opposing team comes into play) then I think you'll find the LA Grabowskis won't be getting 2 runs per game.
I've been a longtime lurker on this site, and I'm finally going to have my first post. Firstly, I want to thank Jon for this site, I find it as an excelent relief outlet from the uninformed media coverage of this team, and really appreciate all the info. It might be my favorite website on the internet.
I'm a huge Depo supporter, and have always been a fan of Choi, but I am begining to think he may not be the answer at 1st. However, I still hope he can turn it around.
I've lost all faith in Werth and never really understood the love affair with this guy. I would take Repko over him anyday and am really starting to like this kid with his recent offensive and defensive fireworks.
I really think this team needs a natural leadoff hitter. I love Izturis and would start him on my team anyday of the week, I just don't love him hitting 1st.
I think the Kent signing was brilliant.
I like the pitching. I think Lowe can be great at times, but also has trouble going deep into games. Weaver has been great lately, but I don't think it makes sense to keep him around long-term with our prospects due to arrive in a year or two. I was really hoping Odalis could pull it together this year and in the future, but that may have been a poor, but necessary signing, given the market circumstances. Penny has been money and worth trading away LoDuca. Houlton has been one lucky SOB thus far, in my opinion, but I think a combo of him and Thompson as a 5th starter in the future is not bad at all.
The bullpen has its issues, but it's hard to judge without Gagne, one of my all-time favorite Dodgers. I liked Wunsch and hope we sign him in the offseason, I really don't care for the inconsistency of everyone else, even though they are young and show flashes of brilliance at times.
I love Drew and Milton in the outfield. Would be great if we could fill the hole in LF somehow.
And Phillips will do for this year, but I hope we give someone else a chance next year. It is really frustrating the way other teams are able to run all over us. I'm hoping for Navarro next year.
I think we could have easily won the west this year, but due to one of the worst injury-plagued seasons I have ever heard of, it is now going to be pretty difficult. It's been frustrating to be losing game after game with jason phillips as a cleanup hitter. We might just be a deal or two too late this year. But the future is very very bright and I hope we don't sell off part of the future in a stupid deal for this year. Sorry, had to get a few things off my chest, it's been a frustrating season thus far. Go Dodgers!
185. You would need a super computer and hundreds of and hundreds of lines of input data to do what you are suggesting. I already made public the flaws that my sim have and that it is not yet complete. But I think those are rather minor things. There is really no way to run an accurate sim on a pitch by pitch basis, there are just way too many data inputs. My sim doesn't take into consideration who the pitcher is, and it was never meant to do that as it adds a Big O(N2) of complexity to the program. You would have results back to you in weeks instead of seconds. I will leave that excercise to you!!
Xei
#178 - C? You know, a real programmer would do it in Perl. And it would be 5 lines long.
I'm kidding. Actually, I did the same thing about 5 years (in Perl, oddly enough) and was never satisfied with how I should advance the baserunners. If you don't mind giving away the secrets, I'm curious as to what range of probability taking an extra base fits within. And is it solely dependant on the baserunner's speed, disregarding the batter or other runners? Examples:
- Fast guy on first, slow guy on second (let's call him Saenz). On a single, I'm guessing fast guy is less likely to go two bases than he would if he was the only man on base.
or
- Runner on first, any difference between the singles that a Juan Pierre would hit compared to an Adam Dunn? I would think that power hitters put the ball in the OF more often on a single than "singles hitters" would.
Just a couple thoughts, feel free to use them if you want. But I'm at least curious to see how you're currently handling it.
I don't think that 4 or more stat is very telling at all -- I would need to know what all teams do when they score 4 or more, and I would guess that they win most of them.
I want to drown myself in a bathtub for saying this, but it might be time to give Werth a nice long, er, rest, play Perez in left, and leave my other arch-nemesis in center. I'll suffer, but there's no reason the rest of you should have to.
#189 - I'd agree, although probably for a simpler reason. The amount of accuracy gained by what was suggested simply isn't worth it. If you get can within a few percent doing it the simple way, there's no need to reinvent the wheel to try to get only slightly better results.
I guess you COULD do it pitch by pitch if you had the stats of each player on a given count, but by doing that, you would probably decrease the accuracy due to sample size problems. I suppose you could find some sort of league-wide adjustment and do that for each player, but theoretically, those results would average out to be identical to the non pitch-by-pitch sims.
Long story short, there's simply no point in doing it by each pitch, rather than AB.
189 - Actually, you wouldn't need a supercomputer at all. Most semi-decent baseball simulations already do this-- even EA's baseball game for the PS2 does pitch count tendencies, pitch locations, playing-for-the-win strategies, defensive zones, hit locations, etc.
#208 - I'll go on record as officially saying that I think adding all that stuff would decrease accurancy. Like I said, there's NO WAY to accuratly get that info on anything more than a league or stadium basis, so you would be throwing garbage into the algorithm, and getting processed garbage for output.
199. Thanks for the thoughtful post. In your first example with Saenz on 2nd, first off it would be determined if he scored or not. Obviously if he was held at 3b then the fast runner on first would stay at 2nd. If Saenz did score from 2nd, then runner on first would make 3b on his own merit/speed, whatever that may be. As far the type of single Pierre vs Dunn, it is not programmed in to the sim. That is just way too complex to simulate and would involve more data that I don't have, and more lines of code, and no sure way of the correct way of programming it. I don't know who keeps data of how often a single by a player moves a runner from first to third. You could even make the arguement that Dunn hits the ball harder and his singles would travel to the OFer quicker than Pierre's singles... so it's impossible to program, but nice thought. There are tons of other things you could sim, but would be too complex, hard to define or just not worthwhile. The main thing you could argue that was missing would be types of outs, ie - GB vs FB outs, anything else, especially stuff that has to do with bunting and a certain base coach being more aggressive sending runners home are either not worth the complexity the comes with it or just shouldn't be considered. I'm still all ears to any sane suggestions. :) This more fun than a science project... and results should be taken with a grain of salt. But the numbers are fun to throw out there and my algorithm is semi-public.
vr, Xei
#210 - yes, I think GB/FB ratio and linedrive% (is that even available?) would be useful in raising/lowering the probability of taking the extra base. Although, one concern I would have is that my hunch is that pitchers have more control over that result than hitters do (any thoughts??), so you would have to somehow adjust the ratios to reflect a certain day-by-day increase or decrease. Actually, I would probably put pitcher effects in my category of Too Much Work Too Be Worth It.
While I'd love to stay here and discuss algorithms all day long, I've got a bar exam to get back to studying for. If anyone wants to get into this further and perhaps share some info/code/ideas/whatever, you can send me an email at: rageon@gmail.com
Penny should be getting more strikeouts with his stuff (57K in 100 innings). Maybe he's not completely recovered or he's conserving his pitches so that he can go longer into games. But with our defense, he needs to start getting more K's instead of relying so much on defense.
if nothing else, nice to see Penny working in the mid to high 90's today (consistently 97mph). Curveball over the middle of the plate is getting hammered today, though.
This is too painful - I'm certainly not staying at work late today to watch this. I'll go to my favorite pizza restaurant and read the latest Harry Potter, while periodically checking my cell for the Dodgers score and for whom Bush has picked for the Supreme Court, since the latest gossip is that the perfectly acceptable Edith Clement is a red herring. In other words, a good book and meal probably ruined by my cell. Sigh.
Steve is right, though - Oscar Robles's emergence is indeed one of the bright spots of this season.
That's a perfect example of what Penny is able to do that the rest of our starters apparently aren't -- get out of trouble. If Lowe or Perez were pitching, odds are we'd be down 3-1 or worse at this point.
July 19, 1933
The worst two teams in the National League duked it out at Crosley Field and saw a game befitting both teams as the Reds went through four pitchers, but held on for a 6-5 win over the Dodgers. The Dodgers fell to 36-47 and were 13 ½ games behind the Giants and in seventh place.
Brooklyn scored twice in the first and knocked out Reds starter Silas Johnson after just 1/3 of an inning. Ray Kolp relieved and pitched 6 2/3 innings and gave up just one run during that time.
Meanwhile, the Reds went to work on Dodgers starter Walter "Boom Boom" Beck. The Reds scored a run in the second on a ground out. In the second, Kolp singled and came around to score on a home run by Chick Hafey.
In the seventh, the Reds broke a 3-3 tie when third baseman Sparky Adams squeezed home Jo-Jo Morrissey. In the eighth, Beck gave up a run and was sent to the showers in favor of Rosy Ryan who gave up another run to make it 6-3 Cincinnati.
Cincinnati manager Donie Bush brought in reliever Bobby Smith to start the 8th and he faltered in the 9th. He walked two, made an error and then a single by Dodger third baseman Joe Stripp made it 6-5. Bush pulled Smith and brought in Paul Derringer, who was going to suffer through a 7-27 season. But Derringer was able to strike out Hack Wilson to end the game.
The Dodgers finished 1933 with a terrible 65-88 record and 26 ½ games behind the Giants in sixth place. It was quite a disappointment after the Dodgers third place finish the previous year and the second division finish cost manager Max Carey his job after the season.
1933 was the first year of the All-Star Game. The Dodgers representative that year was second baseman Tony Cuccinello, who batted .252 with 9 home runs. Outfielder Johnny Frederick batted .308 and catcher Al Lopez batted .301.
The pitching staff was nothing special. Beck went 12-20. Ownie Carroll was 13-15. Van Lingle Mungo had a respectable 16-15 record with a 2.72 ERA.
There was going to be a new manager coming to Brooklyn in 1934. He would be a famous name, but he wouldn't be a famous manager until long after he left the Dodgers.
Thanks to the New York Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet
Statistical summary format is AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA/IP/K/BB for pitchers.
Las Vegas 51s (AAA):
The 51s beat Colorado Springs 6 - 1.
Milton Bradley came on as a pinch-hitter in the top of the 4th and stayed on in center field for his third rehab appearance. Bradley went 2 for 3 with a run scored, an RBI, and a caught stealing (.375/.375/.375). Bradley's two singles came facing right-handed pitching, the first two left-handed at-bats of his rehab stint. Jose Valentin started at third base, going 2 for 3 with a double, a homerun, a run scored, and 2 RBIs (.600/.600/1.400). Valentin was pulled for a defensive replacement to start the bottom of the 5th. Second baseman Willy Aybar went 2 for 4 with a walk, a double, and a run scored (.298/.366/.441). First baseman Norihiro Nakamura went 0 for 5 (.271/.337/.538). Nakamura moved to third base to fill in for Valentin. Center fielder Todd Donovan went 2 for 4 with a walk and a run scored (.351/.419/.378). Backup catcher Mike Nixon went 2 for 3 with a walk and 2 runs scored (.195/.236/.232).
Starting pitcher Harold Eckert pitched a magnificent game, allowing just 1 run over 7 innings of high altitude baseball in Colorado Springs. Eckert gave up just 2 hits (1 homerun) and a walk while striking out 10 (5.12/91.1/87/41). Relievers Beau Dannemiller (6.35/11.1/12/8) and Pat Mahomes (5.22/70/51) eached pitched an inning of scoreless relief to complete the game.
Jacksonville Suns (AA):
The Suns lost 3 - 2 to Birmingham.
The Suns weren't able to get much going against Birmingham pitching, managing just 7 hits and 2 walks. First baseman James Loney had 3 of the Suns hits, going 3 for 4 with a double and a run scored (.279/.360/.396). Second baseman Delwyn Young went 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored (.292/.344/.477). Young has been playing well enough for a promotion and at 23 years old, the challenge would likely be good for him. Young is already on the 40-man roster so he could see some major league action once rosters expand. Catcher Russell Martin, third baseman Andy LaRoche, shorstop Joel Guzman, and right fielder Justin Ruggiano went a combined 0 for 16 with 9 strikeouts. Martin (.313/.435/.415), LaRoche (.297/.373/.527), and Ruggiano (.273/.333/.364) each struck out twice, dropping LaRoche's average below .300 for the first time since joining Jacksonville. Guzman struck out three times and committed his 23rd error in the field (.282/.346/.489).
Starting pitcher Eric Hull pitched 6 quality innings, allowing 2 runs (both earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts (3.66/91.0/94/37). Jason Olson pitched 2.2 innings, allowing 1 run (earned) on 2 hits (1 homerun) and a walk with 1 strikeout (5.34/59.0/54/35). Olson, a 27 year old right-hander, is one of the few non-prospects on the Suns team. Left-hander Carlos Alvarez came on as a LOOGy to get the last out in the 9th with a man on second (4.32/8.1/12/1). Alvarez allowed a hit to the only batter he faced, but left fielder Nick Alvarez nailed the baserunner at home to end the inning.
Vero Beach Dodgers (High-A):
The Dodgers won 11 - 5 over Dunedin.
Every starter except third baseman Jimmy Rohan reached base in the game, as the Dodgers combined for 17 hits and 2 walks. Second baseman Tony Abreu went 5 for 6 with a double, a homerun, 3 runs scored, and 5 RBIs (.327/.354/.452). Shortstop Chin-lung Hu went 4 for 5 with a double, 2 runs scored, and 2 RBIs (.294/.334/.418). Hu is likely the Dodgers shorstop of the future if Guzman is defensively unable to play the position. Hu's defensive skills are well regarded and he has a little pop in his bat (.124 ISOp). Right fielder Matt Kemp went 2 for 5 with a double and 2 RBIs (.293/.329/.598). Designated hitter Cory Dunlap went 0 for 3 with a walk, a sacrifice fly, a run scored, and a strikeout (.277/.371/.367).
Starting pitcher Danny Muegge received a no-decision allowing 3 runs (earned) in 6 innings pitched. Muegge did not pitch particularly well, allowing 9 hits (1 homerun) and a walk while only striking out 1 (3.48/75.0/48/24). Justin Simmons relieved, allowing a hit-by-pitch and a double and only registering one out (4.03/48.0/33/19). Casey Hoorelbeke allowed the inherited runner to score on a wild pitch, but then proceeding to shut Dunedin down for 1.2 perfect innings with 2 strikeouts (1.80/60.0/43/24). Hoorelbeke, a 25 year old right-hander, attributes his success this season to dropping down and throwing sidearm. Jonathan Figueroa pitched a scoreless 9th, allowing just 2 hits with no strikeouts (4.88/59.0/40/40). The appearance was only Figueroa's second relief appearance of the year, with 12 of his previous appearances coming as a starter. Figueroa, a 21 year old right-hander, was signed by the Dodgers as an amateur free agent in 2002. So far, he has taken a slow path through the minors, spending 2 years in the Sally League before being promoted to Ver Beach late last year.
Columbus Catfish (Low-A):
Columbus lost both games of a double-header against Kannapolis.
In the first game, shortened to 7 innings, Columbus lost 7 - 2.
Travis Denker started at designated hitter and went 2 for 3 with a walk and a double (.291/.407/.526). Third baseman Blake Dewitt went 0 for 4 (.267/.316/.415). Right fielder Sergio Pedroza had the most frustrating game, going 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts (.263/.300/.316). After dominating the Pioneer League, Pedroza now has 7 strikeouts in 19 at-bats with Columbus.
Starter Chad Bailey did not make it out of the third inning, allowing 5 runs (2 earned) on 8 hits an no walks with 1 strikeout (7.64/22.2/14/8). Liam O'Flaherty pitched the last 4.2 innings in relief. O'Flaherty allowed 2 runs (both earned) on 3 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts (3.75/12.0/12/8).
In the second game, shortened to 7 innings, Columbus lost 2 - 1 in the first inning of bonus baseball.
The Catfish managed just 1 run while stranding 11 baserunners on 4 hits, 7 walks, 1 hit-by-pitch, and a Kannapolis error. Second baseman Travis Denker went 0 for 2 with 2 walks, a strikeout and a caught stealing (.291/.407/.526). Third basemann Blake Dewitt had 2 of the Catfish's 4 hits and scored the Catfish's only run. Overall, Dewitt was 2 for 3 with a walk (.267/.316/.415). Sergio Pedroza did not play in the second game of the double-header.
Starter Christopher Malone pitched a great game, but was left with nothing to show for it. Malone allowed just 1 run (earned) over 6 innings on 5 hits (1 homerun) and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts (3.95/98.0/89/30). Albenis Castillo was tagged with the loss allowing 1 run (earned) on 2 hits and 2 walks with 1 strikeout (2.56/38.2/32/16).
Ogden Raptors (Rookie):
The Raptors got crushed 12 - 3 by Helena.
The best offensive performance came from second baseman Jesus Soto. Soto went 2 for 4 with a double and 2 runs scored (.300/.339/.473). Shortstop Juan Rivera went 0 for 3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts (.261/.350/.330). Designated hitter David Sutherland went 2 for 4 with a walk and a run scored (.429/.508/.495). Third baseman Russell Mitchell went 1 for 4 with 2 RBIs and a strikeout (.330/.362/.642). Catcher Juan Apodaca went 1 for 4 with a strikeout (.313/.337/.625).
Three Ogden pitchers combined for terrible pitching performance from start to finish. Starter Marlon Arias took the loss, allowing 7 runs (4 earned) over 4.1 innings on 9 hits (2 homeruns) with 2 strikeouts (4.32/25.0/28/9). Cody White came on in relief to allow 3 runs (all earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks with 1 strikeout (7.71/23.1/19/16). Nathan Hochgesang finished the game, allowing another 2 runs (unearned) on 5 hits with 1 strikeout (4.00/18.0/12/7).
GCL Dodgers (Rookie):
The Dodgers lost 4 - 3 to the GCL Nationals.
Left fielder Scott Van Slyke started his first game with the GCL Dodgers. Van Slyke went 1 for 4 with a strikeout (.200/.200/.200). Third baseman Carlos Santana went 1 for 4 with a double, an RBI, and a strikeout (.333/.378/.513). Catcher Kenley Janson went 0 for 2 with a walk, a run scored, and a strikeout (.324/.342/.514). Eduardo Perez came on as a pinch-hitter, going 0 for 1 (.309/.397/.436). Designated hitter Matt Paul went 1 for 3 with 2 RBIs (.188/.188/.188).
Charles Dani pitched three scoreless innings, allowing just 1 walk while striking out 2 (5.95/19.2/15/8). Juan Flores pitched 1.2 innings of relief, allowing 3 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits, 2 walks, and 2 HBPs, with 1 strikeout (10.80/6.2/6/5). Wilfredo Diaz pitched 2.1 perfect innings of relief, striking out 2 (2.38/11.1/10/4). Gary Paris pitched 1.2 innings, giving up the winning run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th. The run was unearned on a strikeout wild-pitch followed by an errant pickoff attempt followed by a sacrifice fly. Frank Robinson would be proud of his little Nationals. Overall, Paris gave up 2 hits and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts (5.84/12.1/14/12).
#3 was just a reference to the last (or one of the last) posts from yesterday's open chat.
Dodger fans used to be like Yankee fans. They assumed that because a player put on the Dodger uniform, it meant they were good. Otherwise, why would Campanis get him? Now we're more like long-time Cubs or Red Sox fans. We see a player in a Dodger uniform, and the first thought is, "what's wrong with this guy? How'd we get stuck with him"
My impression is also that Dreifort will finally retire after this season. In addition to all the knee problems that sidelined him, I think he also has the degenerative hip condition that ended Paul Shuey's career.
WWSH
212 G, 5.99 K/9, .270 BAA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.46 ERA
Pitcher B:
274 G, 8.27 K/9, .251 BAA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.36 ERA
(Sung to the tune of Sesame Street's "Which one of these is not like the other...")
Pitcher A:
507 IP inn 2003, 2004, & 2005
Has not been on the DL in 2004 or 2005.
Pitcher B:
112 IP in 2003, 2004, & 2005
Spent all of 2005 recovering from multiple knee surgeries. Believed to have a degenerative tissue condition leading to general structural instability.
379 G, 4.79 K/9, .282 BAA, 1.46 WHIP, 4.56 ERA
We have better options than Weaver, folks.
Dreifort, what a sad, sad story. So much potential.
There are two reasons the Dodgers will offer Weaver arbitration if he finishes the season with us.
1) Signing him for 1 year, even at $10 million is more valuable to the team than signing a multi-year deal with a similar caliber pitcher for less money per year. This is because we have a number of pitching prospects who will not be ready for 2006, but will be knocking on the door in 2007.
2) If Weaver does not sign with us, he'll likely be a Type A free agent, meaning we'll get a 1st round pick plus a 1st round supplemental pick from the team who signs him.
Comparing Weaver to other pitchers does nothing to counter either of these two points. If the Dodgers were considering signing Weaver to a multi-year, $10 million / year deal I would agree with you, but that's not what we're currently discussing.
This assumes the team has a plan to fill out the rotation next year without him. I'd rather have a good young pitcher (even a bullpen arm) or quality LF than a draft pick, assuming a Weaver trade could net one or the other.
Pitcher A (2002 - 2005):
98 G, 5.88 K/9, .274 BAA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.38 ERA
Pitcher C (2002 - 2005):
35 G, 4.00 K/9, .308 BAA, 1.69 WHIP, 5.71 ERA
- Penny
- Lowe
- Perez
- Houlton
- Thompson, or Carlyle, or Mahomes, or Venafro, or Jackson, or Alvarez/Dessens, or a cardboard cutout of Darren Dreifort.
We clear up some budget room, we arguably don't have much worse of a rotation, we give the Vegas crew some valuable experience while at the tail end of the rotation, and we have the ability to go out and improve the offense. I certainly see that as better than Penny, Lowe, Perez, Weaver, and Houlton, with a smaller amount of flexibility in terms of upgrading the team.
A team with that rotation would need to score a ton of runs to be above-average.
The good news is that Weaver has pitched well enough to help us out in the sense of making that decision easy. He has also made the decision easy as far as a multi-year from us. What I'm hearing about Weaver right now is the same as how Malone defended the Dreifort contract. I can't believe after Dreifort and Park and Brown and Lowe, we would repeat the process for...Jeff Weaver?
Thompson could likely perform similarly to Houlton as a 5th starter, but not any better seeing as he's allowed way to many baserunners both with Las Vegas and with Los Angeles (over 1.5 / IP). Buddy Carlyle has already proven he can't handle major league batters. Pat Mahomes was moved to the bullpen in Las Vegas because he's not any good. Mike Venafro is a situational lefty, who's also not very good. Edwin Jackson can't even strike out AA batters consistently at this point. Wilson Alvarez can't start due to injury concerns that have popped up multiple times and are likely to require offseason surgery. Elmer Dessens has consistently been better out of the bullpen, and isn't very good. Additionally, I don't even think the Dodgers will pick up his 2006 option. Darren Dreifort I won't even get into.
The following rotation is not only better in every way, it's also deeper:
Penny
Lowe
Perez
Weaver
Houlton / Thompson
If we had a rotation of Penny, Lowe, Perez, Houlton, Thompson as you suggested, we would have very little pitching depth to deal with adversity, which as we've seen this year is a must.
And it's depressing to think that the starting rotation might be the same as this year's. Blah. Yuck. Ptooey. We're not going anywhere until Broxingsley gets up here.
1. Drew 8.855
2. Kent 7.233
3. Bradley 6.314
4. Saenz 5.718
5. Valentin 5.489
6. Choi 5.395
7. Perez 5.316
8. Ledee 5.314
9. Robles 4.774
10. Werth 4.277
11. Repko 4.027
12. Edwards 3.719
13. Izturis 3.523
14. Phillips 3.307
15. Grabowski 2.376
Conclusions: Unless Izturis turns it around Robles is a much better option. At the very least Izturis should be dropped in the lineup and he and Phillips should hit 7th and 8th. With Drew, Bradley and Valentin all out the Dodgers lose quite a bit of firepower. Two of the top 6 are first basemen, would be nice to move the older of the two for whatever we could get. With Grabowski being sent to the minors, Phillips becomes the new worst hitter that gets playing time.
Teams:
1. DBacks 4.979
2. Padres 4.898
3. Rockies 4.824
4. Giants 4.708
5. Dodgers 4.660
Conclusions: NL West can't hit a lick.
Note: This is from computer sims, and I'm not claiming it to be incredibly accurate or even have any scientific significance. :)
vr, Xei
I think you need to go back to work on that program, Xei :)
vr, Xei
Which position would you try to add that impact bat at? LF? make Werth your 4th OFer? 3B? How many years is Valentin signed for? C? relegate Phillips to backup, do you want to block Navarro? Thoughts.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
Valentin is on a 1-year deal. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back at $1.5-2.5M if we don't land a top-10 3B.
I hope Phillips get hot and we can trade him during the offseason, or even before the August 31 waiver deadline. I was excited to have Phillips this season as our 8 hitter - he's a league-average catcher for a league-minimum salary. He'll be arbitration eligible after the season, and I think it's likely that Navarro could match his production next year. Factor in the presence of Martin, and we should probably get Navarro enough playing time to pump up his trade value. If for some reason Martin doesn't pan out or stalls in the minors, we can keep Navarro.
Most significantly, we need a lineup where our SS or catcher can be the #8 hitter. We were in that position at the start of the season, and the deep lineup scored a lot of runs.
vr, Xei
Lawton (LF)
Bradley (CF)
Drew (RF)
Kent (2B)
Choi (1B)
Perez / Robles / Valentin (3B)
Phillips / Navarro (C)
Izturis (SS)
That should crack the top 100 reasons we can still passionately watch the Dodgers. We should tell Scott Long.
By the way, this is off topic, but is there a website that calculates the expected win outcome for you (freely available to all)? I know I saw something like that referenced at the Hardball Times but I couldn't find it.
Anyway, my point is that in regards to FB's proposed lineup I'm thinking something a bit more radical:
Robles (SS)
Perez (2B)
Drew (RF)
Kent (1B)
Bradley (CF)
?????? (LF)
Valentin (3B)
Phillips / Navarro (C)
I think Kent could make the switch to 1st and Perez's glove will improve at 2nd. I'm assuming LF is filled by a trade of either or both of Weaver and Izturis; LF could move up in the order depending upon who said LF turns out to be. Plus you have an infield that can be rottated around pretty easily to give Choi and Saenz playing time. Also, Ledee and Werth as 4/5 outfielders is not bad insurance.
http://walkoffbalk.com/tools/winexp/index.php
vr, Xie
Exactly what I was looking for! Thanks, Xeifrank. By the way, how did you come up with your "speed" data for your program? Did you just make it up according to how fast people looked? ie, Bradley faster than Philips?
What a find it would be to send him some of our ideas.
vr, Xei
Or spam him with "DFA SCOTT ERICKSON" emails...
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
Yeah I know what you mean. It would be pretty cool if he'd return emails from us. I get the feeling it could be a little rude though. Relaying him ideas he probably already has considered and all. Still, it'd be nice if he could "leak" things that continue to be unexplained...
That written, TJ Simers is right: Dodgers fans (me included) are getting hopelessly out of touch with the reality of what a good Major League product looks like. To be content with a lineup that includes Robles, Valentin, Perez and Choi when there are better players -- considerably better ones -- available through trade or FA is ... well, settling.
Let's open the checkbooks. Spend some money. Trade some prospects and suspects for players that can make a difference. "This is L.A. Baseball," for heaven's sake.
Or is what we're seeing today "L.A. Baseball"? I hope not.
Your argument about Kent finishing his career at 1B is fine, but Kent is only signed for one more year, so why move him?
58 - Just my humble opinion... and are Ken'ts offensive numbers as a 1B a downgrade?
The average 1B hits better than the average 2B. Kent is a way above average 2B (offensively), but not so much at 1B.
Maybe his offensive numbers as a 1B won't be a downgrade from current production, but Perez's numbers will be a downgrade from his. That's the big thing about having Kent as a 2B. It's easier to find a decent bat at 1B than it is at 2B.
The point I disagreed on was that 'better' players aren't as readily available as we like to think. Name the Top 10 3B in baseball: off the top of my head, I get ARod, Rolen, Chavez, Ramirez, Glaus, Mora, perhaps adding Ensberg. That's not even 10 guys. How many of them were available last offseason? Just Glaus, who's making $40M over 4 seasons in AZ. How many of these players do you think would be easy to pry from their current teams for a fair price?
How many Top 1B were available last offseason? I can think of Delgado and Sexson. They're both playing pretty well, but are 33 and 31 years old, respectively, and will be in their late 30s by the end of their multi-year deals paying $10M+ per season. Should the Dodgers have overpaid (and that's what would have been required) to sign one of them, when our 1B platoon has been quite good this season for clsoe to free?
The point is, it's easy to identify players that are somehow better than what we've got. They're just not always available. As a GM, why would you trade away a good player with a good contract?
Phil Nevin
Chad Tracy
JT Snow
Todd Helton
Lance Berkman
Whoever plays first for Pittsburgh
Lyle Overbay (who's not bad)
Sean Casey
Whomever Frank Robinson picks that day
Julio Franco
Phillies first baseman of the day
Carlos Delgado
The less said about the Mets first basemen, the better
Between Perez and Izturis and Robles is definitely a different question.
Three of those four are the only players on the Dodgers who should give us hope. Valentin, not so much. I would love to hear Simers's defense of Cesar Newman, um, I mean, Izturis.
Do you really think Brian Giles may sign with is this offseason? He seems to be the best bat I can think of available.
True, but what I'm hoping for is an end to platooning as we know it... if Kent's at 2B then the rest of the infield is awfully crowded. I would like to see Robles/Perez get consistent playing time (and no, not by JT's standards). But alas, you are correct about the offensive numbers being better with Kent at 2B...
We need another bat, if just for a year, unless more mediocrity is desired.
http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagent.html
We don't need to choosed between Perez and Choi, if Perez stays at 3rd.
(Now THAT was a threat, Steve)
Where am I wrong?
We don't have to fill 1B =).
The only 1B available who would be better than Choi for the price is Adam Dunn, who would probably go on Tracy's "non-professional hitters" list.
We need pitching, pitching, a left fielder, a shortstop, pitching, and pitching, not in any particular order
Do you mean starting pitching or bullpen help or both?
After Burnett, what other starting pitcher is there to go for?
Cincinnati Reds
OF Jason Romano has refused an outright assignment to Louisville and elected free agency.
Billingsley, Tiffany, Hochevar, Jackson, et. al. Major League starting pitchers are crap on a stick anyway. I think we have to get through at least 2006 before our staff is in any shape to truly compete for the championship, and not just the lame NL West.
vr, Xei
So let's just get some 1-year deals... hitting and pitching.
Eric Byrnes to either St. Louis, Cleveland, Atlanta, Houston, or the Yankees
Danys Baez to either Washington, Florida, Boston, Atlanta, or the White Sox
AJ Burnett to (take a deep breath) Baltimore, Boston, San Diego, Toronto, LA (both of 'em!), White Sox
Billy Wagner to Boston
Mike Lowell to Baltimore or Pittsburgh
Shawn Chacon to Texas, San Diego, or the Yankees
Barry Larkin to Washington (coming out of retirement)
Juan Encarnacion to St. Louis or the Yankees
Juan Pierre to the Cubs
JC Romero to Boston
Adam Dunn to the Mets, Astros, or Dodgers
Ken Griffey to the Yankees or White Sox
Jason Schmidt to Washington, Texas, Yankees, White Sox, or Boston
Shingo Takatsu to Minnesota, San Diego, or the White Sox
Randy Winn to the Yankees
It was a huge mistake by each of their respective teams to sign such brittle players.
vr, Xei
I'm not sure about Walt Jocketty, but it's a computer geek name don't you think?
Oh and DePodesta's email is googleboy@ladodgers.com
Paul Lo Duca can be reached at
heartandsoul@flamarlins.com
Shawn Green is at
provenveteran@azdiamondbacks.com
Guillermo Mota is at
ikeptgagnefromgettinghurt@flamarlins.com
Dave Roberts is at
iamreallyfastbutigethurtallthetime@sdpadres.com
Derek Lowe is at
iwishwereinboston@ladodgers.com
Frank McCourt just uses Hotmail I believe.
By any chance would you happen to have Adrian Beltre's address too?
vr, Xei
flashinthepan@seattlemariners.com
needbonechips@seattlemariners.com
Conclusion: Dunn would be a nice fit, but at what cost? I think his contract is fine, I think his defense in LF is liveable considering the damage he does at the plate. I just worry about giving up too many of our pitching prospects as that is what we are really counting on for 2007 and beyond...
vr, Xei
I hear you. Pitching is more important than Dunn..
See you Braz. Nice knowing you.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
Does your program have a name, Xei?
Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous unpublished studies)
http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/vorpdescnew.htm
vr, Xei
1. Robles - 3b
2. Izturis - ss
3. Kent - 2b
4. Ledee - RF
5. Choi - 1b
6. Werth - LF
7. Phillips - C
8. Repko - CF
9. Penny
Over/Under of 6 1/3 for Penny
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
Phillips 5 and Choi 6, eh? Well, Phillips IS batting .003 higher...
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=rs-shoppinglists071905&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Curiously, in the above column, Rino doesn't mention the Dodgers at all--not as buyers, not as sellers. Teams needing starting pitching: Yankees, Orioles, Rangers, Padres, White Sox. Implicitly, the Phillies and A's, though he doesn't dwell on it (the column is not for deep thinkers.) Teams needing bullpen help: D-backs, Red Sox, Cubs.
No one seems to need a shortstop. Power from a third baseman and/or corner outfielder will be sought by several teams, including the Cardinals, Twins and Nats.
Jeff Weaver, Derek Lowe, Odalis Perez, Yhency Brazoban, Olmedo Saenz, Gio Carrara, Duaner Sanchez, Ricky Ledee, Jayson Werth. If we don't find a way to fix things for 2006 by trading at least four of the above nine players, then someone's asleep at the switch.
Refer to Post #437 on 7/15 for the rules on the LINEUP MATCH GAME.
If Tracy keeps coming out consistent lineups then it will mess up the game but until then we can keep playing it.
vr, Xei
For the Nationals, Guzman benched, Carroll at short leading off. AND Castilla benched (hurt? embarrassed?) and Baerga starts at third. Wow. Quick, Olmedo, pass the Cheerios.
(I know, I know, it's not Nationals Thoughts, but Steve and Bob both seem to like to play.)
1. A.Pujols 12.268
2. Drew 8.855
3. Dunn 8.458
4. M.Ramirez 7.471
5. V.Guerrero 7.372
6. Kent 7.233
Your lineup was really close. You guessed all the players and guessed 6 out of 9 correct batting order.
I guess you're starting to read Tracy's mind.
Tonight's lineup ran thru sim:
Dodgers: 4.219
1. Computer generates random number between 1 and 1,000, if number is less than or equal to the players OBP (whole number of) then he gets on base.
2. If the number was between the batting average and the OBP it is a walk, otherwise it is a hit. Then if a hit, determine what kind of hit based on the players ratio of 1b/h, 2b/h, 3b/h, hr/h (use another random number to determine what kind of hit). Then move runners accordingly, with players with higher speed ratings having a higher percent chance of taking an extra base.
3. If it was an out. All outs are currently programmed as a strike out / or no runner advancing and no double plays.
4. When 3 outs are made begin a new inning and repeat step #1.
that's the basics.
vr, Xei
What language did you use for the program?
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
7/19 Brad Penny vs Phillies
Colorado Blue: 7 1/3
CT Bum: 7
Howard: 7 2/3
Xeifrank: 6 1/3
Joekings: 7 1/3
Louis In SF: 7
Standings...
Howard 3-1-0
CT Bum 1-1-2
Xeifrank 1-1-2
Colorado Blue 1-3-0
Louis in SF 0-0-0
Joekings 0-0-0
I hope everyone remembers how much Drew- and Kent-bashing was going on six months ago here and elsewhere.
I keep going back and forth on Dunn, but Xei's numbers pretty much make the case for him. But how do we get him without giving up your 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers? Don't see Weaver, Izzy or anyone else on our current roster as desirable to a team like the Reds except as a throw-in.
First, you can't select a random number to determine the kind of hit; what you really need to do is to simulate plays on a pitch-by-pitch basis rather than a play-by-play basis. An 0-2 count is less likely to produce a home run than a 3-1 count, for example.
Second, if you aren't simulating the location of your hits, then your extra base algorithm is fairly useless. Nobody will go first-to-third on a hit that drops in front of the left fielder, but a faster player will try to go first-to-third on a hit just out of the right fielder's reach.
If you run the sim on a pitch-by-pitch basis, including likelihood of pitch locations and likelihood of where the ball is hit (and here's where defensive range of your opposing team comes into play) then I think you'll find the LA Grabowskis won't be getting 2 runs per game.
I'm a huge Depo supporter, and have always been a fan of Choi, but I am begining to think he may not be the answer at 1st. However, I still hope he can turn it around.
I've lost all faith in Werth and never really understood the love affair with this guy. I would take Repko over him anyday and am really starting to like this kid with his recent offensive and defensive fireworks.
I really think this team needs a natural leadoff hitter. I love Izturis and would start him on my team anyday of the week, I just don't love him hitting 1st.
I think the Kent signing was brilliant.
I like the pitching. I think Lowe can be great at times, but also has trouble going deep into games. Weaver has been great lately, but I don't think it makes sense to keep him around long-term with our prospects due to arrive in a year or two. I was really hoping Odalis could pull it together this year and in the future, but that may have been a poor, but necessary signing, given the market circumstances. Penny has been money and worth trading away LoDuca. Houlton has been one lucky SOB thus far, in my opinion, but I think a combo of him and Thompson as a 5th starter in the future is not bad at all.
The bullpen has its issues, but it's hard to judge without Gagne, one of my all-time favorite Dodgers. I liked Wunsch and hope we sign him in the offseason, I really don't care for the inconsistency of everyone else, even though they are young and show flashes of brilliance at times.
I love Drew and Milton in the outfield. Would be great if we could fill the hole in LF somehow.
And Phillips will do for this year, but I hope we give someone else a chance next year. It is really frustrating the way other teams are able to run all over us. I'm hoping for Navarro next year.
I think we could have easily won the west this year, but due to one of the worst injury-plagued seasons I have ever heard of, it is now going to be pretty difficult. It's been frustrating to be losing game after game with jason phillips as a cleanup hitter. We might just be a deal or two too late this year. But the future is very very bright and I hope we don't sell off part of the future in a stupid deal for this year. Sorry, had to get a few things off my chest, it's been a frustrating season thus far. Go Dodgers!
I'm going to do the unthinkable tonight. I'm going to watch a Dodger game and hope to be entertained, though The Juice mocks me for my efforts.
Xei
(Never would've thought I'd be typing that...)
when dodgers score 4 runs or more, dodgers are 37-10
vr, Xei
I'm kidding. Actually, I did the same thing about 5 years (in Perl, oddly enough) and was never satisfied with how I should advance the baserunners. If you don't mind giving away the secrets, I'm curious as to what range of probability taking an extra base fits within. And is it solely dependant on the baserunner's speed, disregarding the batter or other runners? Examples:
- Fast guy on first, slow guy on second (let's call him Saenz). On a single, I'm guessing fast guy is less likely to go two bases than he would if he was the only man on base.
or
- Runner on first, any difference between the singles that a Juan Pierre would hit compared to an Adam Dunn? I would think that power hitters put the ball in the OF more often on a single than "singles hitters" would.
Just a couple thoughts, feel free to use them if you want. But I'm at least curious to see how you're currently handling it.
Robles starting at 2B next year?
I want to drown myself in a bathtub for saying this, but it might be time to give Werth a nice long, er, rest, play Perez in left, and leave my other arch-nemesis in center. I'll suffer, but there's no reason the rest of you should have to.
I guess you COULD do it pitch by pitch if you had the stats of each player on a given count, but by doing that, you would probably decrease the accuracy due to sample size problems. I suppose you could find some sort of league-wide adjustment and do that for each player, but theoretically, those results would average out to be identical to the non pitch-by-pitch sims.
Long story short, there's simply no point in doing it by each pitch, rather than AB.
The Phillies get a hit, no walks, no HR, and have 1 run to show for it.
I think incorporating line drive percentage and ground ball/flyball ratio would help with advancing runners.
Well, at least we get another at-bat for Kent and raised Myers' pitch count...
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
Then we'll need a new terw to differentiate between "good scrap" and "bad scrap."
While I'd love to stay here and discuss algorithms all day long, I've got a bar exam to get back to studying for. If anyone wants to get into this further and perhaps share some info/code/ideas/whatever, you can send me an email at: rageon@gmail.com
Actually, pitchers have very little control over that kind of stuff. LD% and GB/FB ratio are easily available at www.thehardballtimes.com .
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
Steve is right, though - Oscar Robles's emergence is indeed one of the bright spots of this season.
Win expectancy calculator says we have a 34.4% chance of winning, of course they don't break it down on a pitch by pitch level.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
Izturis (professional fielder),
Robles (professional situational hitter),
Kent (professional deluxe hitter),
Ledee (professional pinch hitter),
Phillips (professional starter),
Choi (professional backup),
Werth (professional starter),
Repko (professional scrappy hitter)
Aren't we lucky that they are all professional something.
Any comments to add?
vr, Xei
http://tinyurl.com/8epjq
vr, Xei