The transplanted Los Angeles Dodgers were not much to look at it in their inaugural season on the West Coast, but on this day in Philadelphia, the Dodgers found a team that was playing worse than them and picked up an easy win over the Phillies, 10-4, before 18,117 at Connie Mack Stadium. First baseman Gil Hodges homered and drove in five runs.
All the win did was keep the Dodgers from falling into last place. They were 43-50 and 8 ½ games behind first place Milwaukee and San Francisco. Los Angeles was just .001 ahead of Philadelphia for last place.
Hodges had an RBI single in the first off of Philadelphia starter Jack Sanford. He would then hit a two-run home run off of reliever Jim Hearn in the sixth and then cap off his night, with a 2-run RBI double off of Seth Morehead. Sandy Koufax went the distance to pick up his 8th win. Koufax struck out seven.
The Dodgers had 13 hits on this day. Besides the four by Hodges, Gino Cimoli, Charlie Neal, Jim Gilliam and John Roseboro all had two. Bob Bowman had the only home run for the Phillies.
The first season for the Dodgers in L.A. was a disappointment. Coming off a 3rd place finish in 1957, the Dodgers slid all the way to 7th place with a 71-83 record and finished 21 games behind the Braves.
The Dodgers big problem in 1958 was that the team was old and some of the Brooklyn transplants weren't much help. Pee Wee Reese and Don Newcombe were near the end of their careers. Reese was allowed to retire at the end of the year, but Newcombe was traded to Cincinnati early in the year after piling up a 7.86 ERA. Duke Snider hit .312 but injuries limited him to 106 games. And the deep right field at the Coliseum held him to 15 homers. Hodges and second baseman Charlie Neal led the team with 22 homers.
The pitching staff had a lot of trouble adjusting to the Coliseum. The staff ERA was 4.47. Johnny Podres had the lowest ERA among starters at 3.72. Don Drysdale was 12-13 with a 4.17 ERA and Koufax was 11-11 with a 4.48 ERA. The Dodgers gave up 761 runs, one fewer than last place Philadelphia.
But help was on the way for the Dodgers. Frank Howard and Ron Fairly made their debuts. Roseboro took over fulltime at catcher after Roy Campanella's career was ended by a car accident that paralyzed him.
When the 1958 season ended the Dodgers traded minor leaguer Maury Wills to Detroit for players to be named later. But during spring training of 1959, the Tigers sent him back to L.A.
Outfielder Elmer Valo played his last year for the Dodgers. The Dodgers would not have another Elmer on the roster again until 2004.
The Los Angeles Dodgers drew over 1.8 million fans to the Memorial Coliseum in 1958. This was an increase of over 800,000 from their last year in Brooklyn. Attendance would increase more in 1959. But sports writers in L.A. wondered why local fans were spending their money to follow such a bad team. And was Walter Alston's job in peril?
Thanks to Los Angeles Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet
Gil Hodges isn't in the Hall of Fame for the same reason that some other people aren't. He was just pretty good, but he wasn't great. The batters most comparable to him are Norm Cash, George Foster, and Jack Clark.
Hodges would have to make it as sort of a combo player/manager, but I think he died too young to leave enough of an impression as a manager.
hodges is listed on the rfk stadium "tarp of honor" for his service as a manager, and i believe his number has been retired by the new york mets.
as we know, the only dodger number retired by a non hof'er is gilliam's, which explains why scioscia and others got to wear number 14. and why grabowski got to wear number 6, for that matter.
11
i am sure you are correct that 14 would be retired if he made the hof. mitch webster, i believe, was the last to wear 20 before sutton was inducted and had the number subsequently retired.
iirc, jolbert was the first to wear 6 after garvey left, and popeye wasn't too pleased about it.
maybe someday 6 will be retired for garvey and grabowski, just like the yankees' 8 for yogi and bill dickey.
The Veterans committee used to be pretty easy, if arbitrary. Every former teammate and old friend of the members seemed to be getting in - most of the bad selections over the past 20 years or so came from the VC. So they changed the rules, and now it's almost impossible for the VC to choose anyone. I don't remember the specifics (Bob T will), but they probably leaned too far the other way. Which means that Bert Blyleven is doomed if he doesn't get more love from the writers.
I'd put Garvey and Hodges and Kirby Puckett, and Dale Murphy and Jim Rice and Dave Parker in the Hall of Pretty Darn Good, which should be built down-wind of the HoF.
Hey! Maybe they could build that "Hall of Pretty Darn Good" next to the "Field of Dreams" ballfield in Iowa! 'Course, for regional purposes it might need to be called "Hall of 'Purt Near Great."
There are a lot of people in the Hall of Fame who wouldn't get into Hall of Pretty Darn Good. At least not before Hodges and some of the other names Bob mentioned. And he is right, the VC is a joke now.
As far as Jesus in the HOF, I think he pissed off a lot of people because he kept saying that HE was the real Commissioner. Plus he kept turning other players' sunflower seeds and gatorade into fish and wine. Very controversial!!
Thanks for the article link. It makes a much more compelling argument for Hodges in the HOF than I ever could. I did not realize that he was the leading right-handed NL homerun hitter at the time of his retirement. That has to mean something.
Adam Dunn would be a tremendous pickup. He's someone who would help the Dodgers make it to the post-season this year, and next year, and the year after that.
Urgeth Urbina has a personal problem (alcohol) and wouldn't be a good long-term addition, in my opinion.
In my mind, you can't be a huge buyer at the deadline if you aren't competitive in 2 races (division and wild card). If you're only competitive in one of those two races, I say be a buyer but not a BIG buyer, throwing money at 6-monthers.
I have been advocating trading for Dunn forever. Baseball Primer has a link to an article that says Dun would accept 3 years at 22 mill to stay in Cincinatti. I would be happy if he came to the Dodgers for even 5 years at 45 mill. That would be such a bargain.
Ugie Urbina is not worth what we'd have to give up for him. I'd rather get Billy Wagner for a little bit more.
#26, #31,
Dozens of people here have been advocating the trade for Dunn. The Adam Dunn Scouting Exhibition or whatever it's called is happening tomorrow or something.
The Veterans Committee isn't a Committee anymore. It's a group of every living member of the Hall of Fame plus the winners of the broadcasting and sportswriting awards. They vote every two years for players and every four years for off-field people (umpires, executives).
In their first two tries, nobody made it and I don't think anyone was particularly close.
The ex-Dodger, in my opinion, who truly does deserve a spot, and will likely never get one unless hell freezes over (continuing on with our messianic/apocalyptic theme) is Walter O'Malley. If there are two executives who should be in the Hall of Fame who aren't, it should be O'Malley and Marvin Miller. Both men changed the game of baseball immensely. However, both men also succeeded in ticking off about half of the baseball world. And the halves they ticked off are disjoint sets so their HOF support cancels each other out. I also don't think any New York-based sportswriter would vote for O'Malley, although I don't know how many of them are still alive to vote. The NY Times doesn't allow Murray Chass to vote. The LA Times also no longer allows its writers to vote for such things, but I think Ross Newhan may still get to vote because he's just an outside contractor now.
I should mention that when I heard Marvin Miller speak at the SABR convention last year in Cincinnati, he spoke well of O'Malley. He seemed to think O'Malley was one of the few owners who realized what the players' union was trying to accomplish with getting free agency and was trying to prepare his finances and his team for it.
Although Miller didn't name names, he did mention that O'Malley found out which Dodgers didn't vote to go on strike at the beginning of the 1972 season and had those players traded the following season. I believe that was Robinson, Valentine, Singer and Strahler who got sent to the Angels.
Of course, O'Malley got back Messersmith and that player turned out to be the one who caused even more problems for the owners.
Remember, there is an Adam Dunn trade contest. Just guess what four players (assuming 4 for 1 trade) the Dodgers would trade to get Dunn. Your guess can include both major and minor league Dodger players. Just post your guess on this board. I have saved four guesses so far.
vr, Xei
34- That would be the second best lineup in the National League.
I'm sure you're kidding, right? This wouldn't be the second (or third?) best lineup in the NL East alone. Choi and Phillips, notably, were traded out of that division. And that doesn't even address our woeful 3B (defense) or SS (offense).
47 - If you're really Joe Morgan and you're right about Erickson I'll never doubt you again even if you continue to blame the Giants woes on not having Bonds.
Even though I won't venture a specific guess, I will say if we can get away with only losing 1 pitching prospect and the Devil-in-the-BP then that would be good indeed (especially since I believe E. Jackson to be a bust).
46 - I believe I have dibs already on that 4-some. I'll give you 20% of Xei's Fame and Glory that he bestows on the winner.
Also, what about Everyday Eddie Guardado as a reliever? I think he'd be a solid pickup for the bullpen, and would probably come even cheaper than Urbina.
48 - The problem with trading Choi then is who's on first (no pun intended). Saenz cannot play there everyday... how about an "experiment" with A. Perez at 1st? Or is 5'11" too short...
49 - I wouldn't go so far as calling Edwin a bust, I just don't think he's the second coming of Doc Gooden (the original, good version). I think he could end up being a Pedro Astacio-type.
We'll look back at this deal fondly come 2007, when Adam Dunn is clubbing 50 homers, and Edwin Jackson is 10 and 14 for the Reds.
49 - Of course I am!! You don't know what a great move getting rid of Erickson would be a move that would be great for team chemistry.
Edwin Jackson MAY be a bust, but I think there's a decent chance that people will be saying "Just imagine how good the dodgers rotation would be if they'd kept Jackson to go along with Billingsley, Hochevar, and Miller."
It would be better if the Dodgers kept Loney and instead offered Werth and Jim Tracy, but that would add up to 5 players and the rule seemed to be 4 for 1.
54. Choi a laughing stock of the league? I doubt teams are salivating over him, but he's definitely not a laughing stock, and we've got plenty of them rostered, but he's not one of them. Perhaps you've been listening to a little too much Jim Rome or ESPN radio and you need to stop reading the LA Times as your bible. Those people/publications love to bash Moneyball/DePodesta and his poster boy Choi.
vr, Xei
59 - Laughing stock may be overstating it a bit, but I don't think we'll get any Derrek Lee's for him now. I'd say his stock has significantly dropped over the last 12-15 months.
I just don't see DePo giving up Ghame Over if he's trying to make a run at the division; unless he thinks Schmoll can step up. The BP is just too fragile to mess with if the NL West is the goal.
Not worth paying for, but Steve Phillips has an ESPN insider article where he gives his description about how each GM in the NL is like when discussing a deal.
Phillips, surprisingly, speaks well of DePodesta saying that he is smarter than the other GMs and tends to look at deals in a different way because he doesn't have the same baseball background as others. He says DePodesta listens more than he talks and claims that you can picture DePodesta's mind going through everything said to him to see if there is anything behind what was told him.
Phillips had the most praise for John Schuerholz. Or at least respect. Says how Schuerholz plays everything close to the vest and never volunteers anything that he doesn't need to reveal.
While Phillips doesn't badmouth anyone, he doesn't seem to like Jim Bowden much.
He also likes Kevin Towers because he's "a man's man."
Lo Duca played at first base at times and he's about 5'9".
I always thought it weird that people thought that Lo Duca slumped at the end of the year because he was too small. Wouldn't a big guy get tired too if he had to squat behind the plate all summer?
54: Choi is not the laughing stock of the league, I am. I finally read Moneyball, and I can't believe that Harry slept with Hermione and that Ron is jealous!! oh wait, that's harry potter....
I had to throw in Tracy because it doesn't seem like Tracy and Choi can exist on the same team, and I'd rather not trade Choi. His value has never been lower than it is now. Choi is an unlucky line drive hitter in a power hitter's body with the Dodger's best batting eye that hardly walks anymore and strikes out a ton.
I didn't realize this was a serious competition. There is no team that would want Erickson. I revise my guess:
Dunn + Rule 5 ineligible throw in minor leaguer
for
Jackson, A. Perez, Loney, Sanchez
two spots open up, Kuo and Broxton get called up, and Erickson, somehow, magically, incredibly, incredulously, survives the cut again.
Dan O'Brien, Cincinnati Reds
As is often the case, O'Brien's style is much the opposite from his predecessor, Jim Bowden. O'Brien has more of an organizer style as he will always dot his I's and cross his T's in everything he does. He is a thorough, quiet and conservative guy.
He tends to be more introspective, keeping his thoughts close to the vest. He is a hard worker, and often sees things as black and white rather than gray.
Billy Beane, Oakland A's
Beane has a dynamic personality. He will tell you exactly who he likes and what he is going after. He believes that if you know what he is doing, maybe there is a creative way for you to help him get it. It is not a surprise, therefore, that Beane finds himself in the middle of many three- and four-way deals.
He doesn't care what people's opinions are about him. He is also aggressive and goes for what he wants. He has the ability to visualize what his plan is and how it works in conjunction with everyone else. He then tries to find a way to benefit from others' plans. Not many GMs can be a GM for his own team as well as someone else's team, but Beane has that ability.
He is one of the few GMs who doesn't say no to every initial proposal. If it works for him, he doesn't play games.
3 Team Trade:
Dodgers Get: OF Adam Dunn, P David Weathers
D'Rays Get: IF Antonio Perez, C Jason LaRue, 1B Hee Seop Choi
Reds Get: 1B Aubrey Huff, P Edwin Jackson,
C Russell Martin
Although I'll stick with my original prediction for the four players (A. Perez, Navarro, Jackson, and Brazoban) in a Dunn deal, I have a very, very uneasy feeling that DePo may very well give up Guzman for Dunn, who will then be signed to an extension. That would be a deal I wouldn't do, but I think DePo would be willing to toss the dice and see what happens.
If Oakland does need a 1B/DH, I think Beane would be willing to take Choi off our hands for a decent prospect. I haven't quite given up on Werth yet, and if we get Drew back, a lineup of:
1B - Dunn
2B - Kent
SS - Izzy
3B - Robles
LF - Werth
CF - Milton
RF - Drew
C - Phillips
would be okay I think. Or DePo could use the prospects gotten from Oakland for Choi to flip for another OF. If the starters hold up, Brazoban figures it out, and we get some help from either Kuo or Broxton, we might have a fighting chance with some luck in the postseason, assuming we make it with Dunn.
If Werth doesn't pan out, DePo can go get a good corner OF via trade or free agency in the off-season.
Beane is similar to DePodesta in that they don't take into consideration what public opinion will say about any trade they make.
A very important trait, considering all the knuckleheads in our local radio and print media. But a good GM should always take into consideration the opinions of DT members. :) vr, Xei
#86 LOL, no I am NOT a Reds fan but they hold the most leverage in this situation and I see them getting the upper hand in any deal for Dunn. Therefore any wishful dreaming of Perez and Jackson for Dunn are just that...DREAMS!
So yeah, I think they will get more than adequate value for Dunn while trying to save face and we all know LaMar is a B*tch to deal with on the TB end.
Actually, giving up Martin instead of Navarro might be an interesting option in a Dunn trade, especially if Fearing is right that we aren't taking into account Navarro's age when judging his somewhat disappointing performance at AAA.
The fact remains, though, that O'Brien will want one of our true blue-chip prospects (IMO LaRoche, Guzman, Billingsley, and Broxton), and DePo may not be able to work out a deal without dealing one of them. Jackson is no longer a blue-chipper with all his recent struggles. In my scenario, I was hoping that quantity might outweight quality to some extent, and that would play to our advantage in farm depth, but in this thin trade market, who knows what offers the Reds are getting from other teams.
Oakland has a prospect named Dan Johnson who is a typical moneyball player and also Nick Swisher can and has played 1B. They are ok and don't need Choi.
#88, 90
Valentin can platoon with Werth if need be (in theory) as well as play 3rd base. He can also start 3rd and Robles can be a defensive replacement (maybe their defensive skills are similar but I'm sure Tracy thinks Robles the better defender). That should help with flexibility.
In all due honesty, I forgot about Valentin's return. If he really can man LF, he might be a better option there than Werth, or better yet, we could platoon the two.
Despite his recent slump, I actually can live with Robles at 3B. Unlike Izzy, he seems to have the eye to be a true leadoff hitter, which we could use.
#93, I think we can get away from including one of our top top prospects if we try a 3-way with another young inexpensive all-star quality (Huff) player going to the Reds since Casey seems to be a goner and their OF is pretty much set. And what is this Baloney I hear about Aurilia coming to the Dodgers possibly??
93. Good point about having to give up one of our true blue-chip prospects. I think many on DT are doing a little wishful thinking in thinking that the Reds will take our useless crap off of our hands (Sanchez, APerez, Werth)... ok crap was a little strong, I will stick with useless.
94. Yes, both Johnson and Swisher are doing very well. A's have very little need for Choi. I don't see Choi going anywhere this year, except maybe riding some more pine.
I don't think it's worth giving up one of our top top prospects to get Dunn now if we can get him after the season is over. I don't know the situation so that may not be the case though. I just don't think it's worth it to trade a top top prospect for a better 2005.
Just looked at Johnson's profile in the BA handbook. Yep, looks like they don't need Choi. I know DePo couldn't get Riccardi (sp?) to take Choi in a three-way for Hudson last winter, so I assume Toronto still isn't interested in him. I briefly thought of sending him to the Sox for Millar, but I'm not sure what we would do with Millar of all people. And I doubt the Mets will give up much for Choi, since Minaya's no stathead.
If we really can't get anything for Choi, then I'd rather just live with Dunn in LF and hope Tracy comes to his senses.
Anyone think the Mets might take Olmedo off our hands for a good prospect or two?
100. Jackson #5? I would put Broxton, Tiffanee, Kuo and Hochevar plus a few others that I'm probably forgetting ahead of Jackson. The first four I completely agree with.
vr, Xei
#102 Do we need more prospects? And who besides Lastings Milledge is a prospect in their entire system? There's no Kazmir anymore and everyone else in their system seems to have regressed.
Did anyone watch the Futures Game and the weak at bats Martin had? He is a few years away and in that time I would rather see Navarro and Dunn rather than Martin/Navarro splitting time at one position.
I wouldn't rate Martin that high yet. Too little power, even for a catcher. Don't get me wrong--he looks like another Kendall, but I don't see him in the same class as the other prospects on the list.
And it's not what we think Dunn to be worth, it's what the Reds GM thinks he can get. We also have to factor in what offers he's getting from other teams.
RE: 99
I agree with everything regarding 2005, but we would get Dunn for 2006 for a not unreasonable price, even after an arbitration raise. And he seems open to a very reasonable extension. If we can get assurances on an extension, I think that changes everything.
101: Yup. I think Depodesta would give up Jackson and Orenduff or Jackson and a sub top 5 legitimate prospect for Dunn though. Dunn is not perfect, but he is a guy you can build around. I think the Reds GM knows exactly how good Dunn is, btw.
#108. Martin has power as he slugged 20+ for VB Last year but in a pitchers park in Jax he is hitting for less power plus it's his first year there. Delwyn Young's power has surprised me though and he may see time with us this September.
#110 his 2nd at bat was a weak pop up to 1B but that's besides the point. He didn't swing with any authority and looked overmatched by that level of competition. That doesn't bode well considering his age and level of play.
108 - I think Depo values catcher defense greatly. I have no idea why, but evidence seems to suggest that he values it quite heavily. He never wanted phillips as anything more than a stop gap, he really wanted damian miller.
I suspect that Depodesta envisions a Navarro/Martin Tandem. Both guys would give solid defense and great on base ability and doubling them up would keep them fresh.
I know it's crazy to say that Martin is the second best prospect in the organization, but he plays a premium position and only has one flaw - a lack of power. Compared to a lack of plate discipline in both Guzman and LaRoche. I think all three are really roughly equivalent. Guzman has the biggest upside but the biggest bustability as well.
#110 his 2nd at bat was a weak pop up to 1B but that's besides the point. He didn't swing with any authority and looked overmatched by that level of competition. That doesn't bode well considering his age and level of play.
Wow. We give old-timey scouts a hard time for relying too much on impressions and not enough on stats, and now we're supposed to extrapolate and project from 2 ABs? Martin may not be a star after all, but 2 ABs don't mean a thing.
How bad would Dunn's power numbers suffer going from Cincy to Dodger Stadium? We may have to take into account that his stats are a bit inflated. Then is he just a 1+ year stop gap? Can he play LF up to snuff, or would he eventually have to be moved to 1B? I'm sure if he did well enough room could be made at either position. It's not like we have great players at 1B/LF or would be blocking top prospects. And as far as trading away a top prospect to get Dunn, you have to be realistic the Reds won't trade Dunn for a boat full of crap. We have alot of good prospects, and common sense tells you that not all of them are going to be top notch at the big league level. Dunn is a proven top notch player. Grooming prospects serves two purposes. A) To replinish your major league roster cost effectively, B) To use in trades for already established big league players. I think you have a good balance between the two. You can't go and trade all your best prospects for short term gain, but on the otherhand if a good opportunity presents itself you have to be willing to make some trades. Either way, there is risk involved. That's why it's a good feeling to know we have a responsible and knowledgeable GM.
vr, Xei
I would venture to guess that DePo has some method of predicting which prospects will be better major league players than others, so hopefully that can help us when it comes time to deal.
116 - Most (both scouts and statheads, I believe) seem to rate Martin as higher and having more upside than Navarro. For some reason though, Depo seemed to covet Navarro. I think Navarro will come up first while Martin works with the Young Guns in Jacksonville, then they all come up together. IIRC, Martin was converted to catcher, so he might take a little longer.
#117, I wasn't judging him as a bust because of those two AB's. I was just saying he looked overmatched in those two AB's and he is 22 at AA. His power swing hasn't come back and his defense is not as good as Navarro's.
Wow, you guys take criticism tough. I like Martin and think he will be a good player but by that time I would rather see Dunn in Dodger Blue. I wasn't calling him a bust at all.
I was watching around the horn,I'm really bored, and Plaschke is an idiot. He rambled on about how moneyball is a nice offseason trick but it doesn't measure heart, chemistry, scrappyness and all that other junk and that's why moneyball hasn't won a playoff series yet. They seem to have conveniently forgotten the red sox. a couple of morons argued that moneyball is all about Zito, Mulder, Haren, Hudson, Etc. But the Angels seem to do it with clutch hitting and chemistry somehow. Stat boy made a good point that Beane should get credit for replenishing the system with good arms and trading for other young Pitchers when Their Aces get too expensive to keep. It was nice to see some people coming along like mariotti and stat boy but plaschke's head is too shiny and I think it hurts.
124. Obviously, Plaschke (just like Morgan) hasn't read the Moneyball book, or has very poor reading comprehension. In the book itself Beane states that the goal is to make the playoffs and once you are there it's pretty much a crapshoot. I think this is evidenced by all the wildcard teams we have seen make or win the world series in the recent past. The regular season is a 162 game sample size, which means the better teams are more likely to make the playoffs. The playoffs are a set of 7 games, and in so few games, anything can happen. One bad outing from your best pitcher and he may not pitch again in the series. It's hard to teach an old Plaschke a new trick.
vr, Xei
Right now, it's sellers market and the Reds pretty much can wait it out and see who bids the highest. Hope Depo doesn't get desperate at the last minute and overpay for Dunn.
This data seems weird (it changes arbitrarily) but surprisingly enough, Dodger Stadium and the GAB both play very similarly in regards to homers. Depending on which numbers happen to come through, both stadiiums are either neutral, or ~25% inflated.
I really would rather not include a top top prospect at all. The most valuable prospects I'd be willing to give up are Jackson and Navarro. But I don't know much about prospects so I don't know.
I just don't believe there is much of a market for Dunn. There could be some surprise team that comes in at the last minute, but if it truly is between Houston and LA, I like our chances.
Of course, if Casey does go to the Mets, Dunn could stay in Cincy. I get the feeling Reds management doesn't likes Dunn that much though.
Well, as I recall, they're only similar in that Dodger Stadium is neutral on homers, but depresses everything else. My impression is that Cincy is a straight hitter's park all the way around, although I could be wrong.
As a TTO (is that what they call it, "Three True Outcomes?) player, Dunn would seem to be a perfect fit, since so much of his offensive production comes from those two parts of offense that aren't reduced by Dodger Stadium, homeruns and walks.
This is also part of the reason why I think Beltre has struggled so much in Safeco, which does depress homers. That, and the fact that Beltre looks right now like a one-year wonder.
Of course, I should point out that this was also probably part of the rationale for signing Lowe. Since Lowe in his career gave up so few homers, the assumption would be that he would benefit from DS more than most pitchers. And then Lowe comes and proceeds to give up homers at rates far in excessive of his track record. Of course, if he continues to continue this recent streak of his, he'll end up as a successful signing and will vindicate the original article Tom Meagher had on this back in the off-season.
I agree on Guzman's potential for flame-out, though, which is why I at least would entertain the idea of giving him up for Dunn. That doesn't mean I'd be enthusiastic about it, though. Being a good GM is obviously about knowing when to take a risk, and when to not take them. Let's hope DePo decides correctly!
Hey Nate, did you see I got a question answered on baseballanalysts.com? Bryan Smith did not have kind words for your boys Kemp and Denker (he ignored Kemp and said Denker's season was flukey). He did however have very kind words for Broxton.
I'm confused--is there really data that suggests that GAB suppresses homers. Joe, are you using BPro factors? And you didn't actually mean to say that GAB suppresses "triples and walks" in 140, right? (if you made a mistake, don't worry, I'm notorious for making mistakes in posts designed to be corrections)
My BPro annual has Cincy's factor at 980, which is really surprising, but my annual doesn't break down the numbers into component hits. I always thought BAB was a bandbox.
I hope you're right about that. But surely Dunn is one of the premiere hitters on the market. A 25 year old who hit 46 HR last year. Come on! There must be a raft-load of GMs who want him for offensive help.
In regards to all of the talked about deals that include Dioner or Martin in a deal for Dunn:
I think that everyone might be undervaluing Dioner and Martin. A few posts ago, someone posted about RotoWorld's top 150 prospects. 9 of the 150 are catchers. We have two. Here're the RotoWorld catcher ranks:
32 Mathis Angels 22 Years
52 Martin Dodgers 22
102 Kottaras Padres 22
109 Saltalamaccia Braves 20
115 Montero Diamondbacks 22
119 Quiroz Blue Jays 23
122 Shappach Red Sox 25
129 Walker Pirates 19
132 Navarro Dodgers 21
Assume that RotoWorld might be correct that Martin is the second best catching prospect in baseball. Now think of the current catching talent in baseball.
Everyone seems totally against trading Billingsly, and he's Roto's 5th best pitching prospect. There are 72 pitching prospects.
The 5th out of 72, or the 2nd of 9?
Compared to other position player talent Navarro and Martin might not be spectacluar, but in the context of production from position, it's possible that they're much more valuble than some of us think. The fact that Jeff Kent plays 2B is what makes him more valuble than an OF'er with his number, right? Apply that here.
I just don't believe there is much of a market for Dunn.
What about the Cardinals? Don't they have injuries to Sanders (serious) and Edmonds (nagging)? I'm not sure what kind of OF depth the Cards have at the moment. If not much, could you imagine plugging Dunn into the middle of that lineup? The Cards have alot at stake which is a golden opportunity to win it all, just like they did last year. And Dunn would be a nice insurance package.
vr, Xei
146 - But he's a sub-.250 hitter that strikes out 150 times per year. Those are Jeromy Burnitz/Rob Deer numbers. Some GMs look at those numbers and would be unwilling (or unable) to match the Dodgers (presumed) offer of Edwin Jackson + others.
Houston would probably try to sign him as a FA. I don't think they have the pitching talent to match LA's, and pitching is obviously what they need.
147. Divide that 72 by 5 due to the population of pitchers on for example a starting rotation outnumber the number of starting catchers. Then it becomes 1 out of 14.4 and 2 out of 9. I think I'd keep Billingsley, especially since we have TWO catchers on that list. vr, Xei
#147,
Excellent point. I'd be willing to trade Navarro but not Martin.
Hmm. Maybe Navarro and Jackson as the key components in a trade will be enough after all...
But surely his age helps him on that front. At 25, you can expect some improvement with regards to Ks and the like. And I don't feel Dunn gets much bad press in the MSM--as far as I can tell, ESPN et al seem to think of him as a premiere young power hitter, which is what he is.
Anyhow, I hope your right. He would be a great fit at DS--the issue is cost in prospects. And I can live with the fielding, which may not be as horrible as I originally thought, since his numbers are a little skewed in LF by a very bad fielding season last year (using BPro stats).
151 - Adam Dunn is 25. Jeromy Burnitz hit 3 HRs when he was 25 and peaked at 38 when he was 29. Adam Dunn has 146 career HRs. Burnitz was 32 when he had 154.
151. Did Burnitz and Deer consistently match the type of OPS numbers that Dunn has been putting up in his early and mid 20s? OPS is a much better measuring stick than looking batting average and Ks only. vr, Xei
130- They didn't actually say scrappiness, I threw that in because it seemed apropiate. ;-) Scrappiness is more of a DT deal but it was in the spirit of what they were saying.
Bradley and Drew should cover up a portion of Dunn's range problems (at least in the aggregate). People have been complaining that we have such a great defensive outfield for a ground ball pitching staff. One way to get them to stop complaining is to have a worse outfield... right?
Well, the issue is to some extent perception, isn't it? I think it's fairly clear that by the numbers, Dunn has great value, considering his age and production. But the real question is whether or not GMs have under-rated that value, which would then give DePo an opening.
Well, at least the trading deadline isn't that far off, We'll find out soon enough.
It's dangerous to make decisions like that based on ordinal rankings. It's unlikely that Russ Martin would make a top prospect list if he WEREN'T a catcher - there's not enough power there, even though the average and patience are above-average. The standard deviation in catcher performance at the MLB level is much less than the StdDev of MLB pitcher, who range from awesome (Clemens, Sheets, Santana) to awful (Nomo, Lima, Milton, Ponson). Catchers are more closely clustered. While a good catcher is a nice commodity, it doesn't benefit nearly as much as a good pitcher.
5/72 = 93% percentile.
2/9 = 77% percentile.
Billingsley is better than 93% of the top pitching prospects. Martin is better than 77% of top catching prospects. I admit that's a skewed way to look at the rankings; I only mention it to provide a different spin on your point.
164 - regarding the last paragraph. There's too few samples to make that generalization.
During the 1st Dodgers draft, DePo said he wasn't going to necessarily stick to the stereotype that he and Beane only take college pitchers. He said it's just that they were undervalued for whatever reason.
I think, considering the state of catching talent, that catching prospects may be hugely undervalued, and to include one of ours in a deal if we don't have to might be foolish.
166. Don't know. We can really only go by the rumors. The most prominent other names out there have been Aubrey Huff and Matt Lawton. Niether one really floats my boat, but of course it would once again depend on who would we have to give up. Obviously for one of those two we surely wouldn't be throwing out the names of our top prospects like we have for Dunn. For a hitter, I say Dunn or bust! We could always use another bullpen arm, but I think that problem can be solved just as well by promoting two minor league pitchers and demoting two major league pitchers. vr, Xei
#164, #168,
There being so few catching prospects is one thing, but us having 2 of them is another. I think the question being asked (or at least the one I'd ask) is, since we have 2 catchers on such a short list, would we we be better off parting with one of them instead of a top pitching or another top hitting prospect, even though, as has been said, the list is top catching prospects is very short?
171 - If you keep both, and one of them turns out to be a top catcher in the league, we'll have a top catcher at a bottom price allowing us to spend on more affordable positions.
Think this way: Say we were paying 10M to Varitek to hit 20HRs and drive in 75 runs. If we had Martin producing similar numbers at 300k, we could be paying someone like Dunn that same 10M to hit 40HRs and drive in 110 runs.
I guess my point is "the fact that there are few Top catching prospects does not make them any more valuable to a team's success. Good catchers contribute what they contribute, which is less than a good SP.
You're half-right about my last paragraph: the sample size of pitchers is valid (>30), but the catcher sample size is terribly small. I was only using it as an illustration, rather than proof of anything. The catching prospects are all clustered in the 100's, where Billisley and other pitchers are (I'm assuming) in the Top 25. Hence, they are far more valuable.
Scarcity may increase market value, but it does little to increase actual in-game value on the field. Martin can only perform to the best of his ability, which should not be measured on a relative scale. Still, your point is well-taken: there are replacement costs to be considered. My point is that the difference, in theory, between Billinsley and his replacement is greater than the difference between Martin and his replacement.
VORP range for catchers and pitchers:
C 34 to -12
SP 61 to -22 (arbitrary 100IP minimum)
172. Luckily, Cincy has two very good hitting catchers. LaRue is a little bit expensive and Encarnacion is 29 years old. I'm sure they'd like to have a catching prospect, but it's probably not near the top of their list. I think Cincy needs arms. Let's say that Depo told Cincy that Billingsley and Guzman for sake of argument were off limits, and the Reds could choose one of our other top 8 prospects (and only one), I very highly doubt the Reds would choose one of our catching prospects. vr, Xei
176 - I agree that Billingsly performing at a top pitching level is more valuble than Martin performing at a top catching level.
I wasn't necessarily advocating trading Billingsly instead of Martin, I was just trying to point out the refusal to part with Billingsly (which I share) and my percieved indifference of everyone for parting with Martin.
Not that Billingsly is overvalued, but Martin may be undervalued. How's that?
180 - I think we agree, basically. I'm only picking Billingsley because you mentioned him, and arguing moreso in abstract than because I sincerely believe you'd keep Martin before Bills.
I still don't think Dunn's worth it this season. If we can get away with D Young, Jackson, and A Perez for Dunn, then great.
Hey Bob (or, really, anyone else), should Sadaharu Oh be in Cooperstown? He's the only Japanese league star I know by name, but are there other Japanese players who ought to be in?
Hey Nate, did you see I got a question answered on baseballanalysts.com? Bryan Smith did not have kind words for your boys Kemp and Denker (he ignored Kemp and said Denker's season was flukey). He did however have very kind words for Broxton.
im not really a fan of bryan smith. he is a blogger, just like me and you and is not in the field of scouting. he looks greatly at numbers to get to most of his anwers. i dont know he can call denkers season flukey, he just wants want to give love to a 21st rounder. And i dont know how people can ignore matt kemp for much longer, his numbers that he posted in the sally and now this year in the FSL is almost idential to jeff francouers numbers in the sally and in A+ at the same age.
one big differnce is that francouer projected his power with doubles but kemp was already showing his power with his homeruns.
its probably has to do with denkers percieved projection, or lake thereof because of his hieght. but i have news for you, marcus giles is the same size as denker, joe morgan wasnt a giant.
whatever. i just think denker is the type of prospect that is just going to have to prove himself at every level because he will always have doubters because he was a 21st round pick.
i actually dont care that much if our lower level prospects dont get the reconigition they deserve. while all the attention can be paid to the guzmans and laroches, the lowe level hidden gems can develop and mature from the eye of scrutiny and be leashed upon the baseball world like ravage wolverines searching for their revenge.
or something like that. All that matter is that WE KNOW what we have down there. and we have damn good players.
The Riverside Press Enterprise seems to think all the Dodgers would have to give up would be Jackson and Perez. Assuming they have some factual reason for reporting this, isn't that a no-brainer? Perez, due to his lack of defense and more promising infielders in the minor leegue system, has become the odd man out, and Jackson has seemingly fallen out of grace. If this rumour has any validity, shouldn't the Dodgers do this without a second thought?
I couldn't understand half of what he said. The interview was really choppy. I heard him mention yesterday's game and how it was his longest outing. I also heard him talk about the trade deadline and how anybody could be traded. I heard him saying something about an injury from last year and something about life threatening but then it started chopping up again.
Billingsley is done. He was talking about getting hurt playing football in high school. Then my phone rang and I had to talk business for a few minutes, so I messed the rest.
213. Ok, so he's young for his level. That's what I expected. Didn't the Braves (fairly) recently have a bunch of players rocket to the majors by around that same age? (A.Jones, Furcal, Betemit). I wonder what it takes to make the majors by the age of 20 or 21. Incredible performances coupled with need at the major league level? vr, Xei
#210 - Xeifrank,
-#2
From what I heard (from somebody here), he used to be a starter but was then thrown in the bullpen because the AA managing people want the pitchers to be comfortable coming out of the bullpen because that's how many of them start off in their first year or so in the majors.
I don't know much, but I'd guess he's more valuable as a starter, but then again, what do I know?
#222 - Xeifrank,
Oh.. Hmm. The problem is probably on my end.
I was asking about your line-up program. Specifically, how you came up with the percentages for players actually taking the extra base. How do you know that player x takes the extra base y% of the time? And fiddling with numbers, did you notice that the numbers of runs scored per game varied greatly depending on the % of extra bases taken?
Awesome. I'm a big Thrice fan as well. I've seen them about 5 times and Dustin once solo. They're playing at UCI on October 7 if you were thinking of checking them out anytime soon. Of course...I'm assuming you live in So Cal =).
I have a small video (about a minute long) of a new song if you want it (release date of the new album is like October 18).
That's funny about Thrice. My buddy is close to those guys and their manager from growing up with them in Orange County. We actually booked Thrice to play a show at UC San Diego when I was there.
225. It's very non scientifical. It would take tons of research to have an exact sim of what % chance to give each runner for advancing more than one base on a single or two on a double. I didn't want to turn my program into a "science project", so I just came up with something simple and made the numbers up. First off, I rate each players speed on a scale of 1 to 100, 100 being fastest. Then if there is a runner on first base and there is a single, I plug the speed rating of the player on first base into a simple formula that gives me the % chance he has of going to third base. Then I create a random number and if the number is less than or equal to the percent chance, then the player goes to third, otherwise he stays at second base. Your question probably is more formula related, I assume. At the moment the formula is
1stTo3rd% = SpeedRating - 10
if Choi has a speed rating of 25, then he has a 15% chance of going from first to third on a single in my sim (given that 3rd base is open). I know it's not totally accurate, but it's good enough for now. I'd be open to other formula ideas that were simple like mine (uses a speed rating). vr, Xei
228. I've had the chance to speak with them on a few occasions...real cool guys. Last year I got to run (ok...we actually walked) in the Susan G. Komen (Cancer foundation) race with Thrice. Thrice and the SSE put together a group of fans that ran in the race...then later that night they destroyed at the Chain =) They retired T&C that night.
LaRoche's defense has really picked up (only 4 errors in 30 games, 3 on first game) even though he was in a slump recently. Is LaRoche's defense ready for major leagues?
237 - Last time I saw them (HOB, Sunset), I don't remember them playing anything from IC, but they might've. All I seem to remember is them screwing up Artist in the Ambulance, and having to start over.
The Cardinals recently called up a minor league outfielder they call J-Rod due to all the OF injuries they have. The guy isn't much of a prospect given his age of 27, but he's done great since he's been called up. And check out the following paragraph about his last month in the minors................ vr, Xei Rodriguez earned his shot with an unreal month in the minors, piling up 17 homers -- including four grand slams -- and 47 RBIs in only 34 games for Triple-A Memphis.
I'm not sure why they retired it...I've see a lot of bands end up hating their early stuff. I do not know if this is the case with thrice though.
Occasionally they play Phoenix Ignition. I think they played it at the warped tour in Pomona....I don't think they have played anything from the first impressions in years.
Dustin played about 3 songs from IC when he did his solo acoustic shows. I have that stuff too if anybody wants it.
#247,
I'll take credit for the bananas by the way ;) (Whenever somebody suggested that JtD wasn't really an SS, Steve would say something like "I can't hear you! I have bananas stuck in my ears!").
July 26, 1958
The transplanted Los Angeles Dodgers were not much to look at it in their inaugural season on the West Coast, but on this day in Philadelphia, the Dodgers found a team that was playing worse than them and picked up an easy win over the Phillies, 10-4, before 18,117 at Connie Mack Stadium. First baseman Gil Hodges homered and drove in five runs.
All the win did was keep the Dodgers from falling into last place. They were 43-50 and 8 ½ games behind first place Milwaukee and San Francisco. Los Angeles was just .001 ahead of Philadelphia for last place.
Hodges had an RBI single in the first off of Philadelphia starter Jack Sanford. He would then hit a two-run home run off of reliever Jim Hearn in the sixth and then cap off his night, with a 2-run RBI double off of Seth Morehead. Sandy Koufax went the distance to pick up his 8th win. Koufax struck out seven.
The Dodgers had 13 hits on this day. Besides the four by Hodges, Gino Cimoli, Charlie Neal, Jim Gilliam and John Roseboro all had two. Bob Bowman had the only home run for the Phillies.
The first season for the Dodgers in L.A. was a disappointment. Coming off a 3rd place finish in 1957, the Dodgers slid all the way to 7th place with a 71-83 record and finished 21 games behind the Braves.
The Dodgers big problem in 1958 was that the team was old and some of the Brooklyn transplants weren't much help. Pee Wee Reese and Don Newcombe were near the end of their careers. Reese was allowed to retire at the end of the year, but Newcombe was traded to Cincinnati early in the year after piling up a 7.86 ERA. Duke Snider hit .312 but injuries limited him to 106 games. And the deep right field at the Coliseum held him to 15 homers. Hodges and second baseman Charlie Neal led the team with 22 homers.
The pitching staff had a lot of trouble adjusting to the Coliseum. The staff ERA was 4.47. Johnny Podres had the lowest ERA among starters at 3.72. Don Drysdale was 12-13 with a 4.17 ERA and Koufax was 11-11 with a 4.48 ERA. The Dodgers gave up 761 runs, one fewer than last place Philadelphia.
But help was on the way for the Dodgers. Frank Howard and Ron Fairly made their debuts. Roseboro took over fulltime at catcher after Roy Campanella's career was ended by a car accident that paralyzed him.
When the 1958 season ended the Dodgers traded minor leaguer Maury Wills to Detroit for players to be named later. But during spring training of 1959, the Tigers sent him back to L.A.
Outfielder Elmer Valo played his last year for the Dodgers. The Dodgers would not have another Elmer on the roster again until 2004.
The Los Angeles Dodgers drew over 1.8 million fans to the Memorial Coliseum in 1958. This was an increase of over 800,000 from their last year in Brooklyn. Attendance would increase more in 1959. But sports writers in L.A. wondered why local fans were spending their money to follow such a bad team. And was Walter Alston's job in peril?
Thanks to Los Angeles Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet
Bob, thanks for the wonderful daily callbacks.
Bob's callback reminds me of the great History of Dodger Stadium photo book my stepson got me for father's day. A fun read.
Hodges would have to make it as sort of a combo player/manager, but I think he died too young to leave enough of an impression as a manager.
http://www.hbo.com/realsports/index.html
as we know, the only dodger number retired by a non hof'er is gilliam's, which explains why scioscia and others got to wear number 14. and why grabowski got to wear number 6, for that matter.
I think if Hodges ever made the HOF, his number would be retired.
He got a lot of votes for the HOF from the writers, but that was likely because he was very popular with the press. Sympathy played a part too.
But now he's in Veterans Committee hell. The way that's set up now, Jesus couldn't make it to the Hall of Fame.
I haven't heard this. Could you provide more details about the VC?
JC never really got the chance to show what he can do.
I had hoped Garvey could get in through thw VC. I thought they were much easier than the writer. Has that changed?
And then replace Erickson, Sanchez, and Carrara with Broxton/Urbina/Kuo.
Any takers?
i am sure you are correct that 14 would be retired if he made the hof. mitch webster, i believe, was the last to wear 20 before sutton was inducted and had the number subsequently retired.
iirc, jolbert was the first to wear 6 after garvey left, and popeye wasn't too pleased about it.
maybe someday 6 will be retired for garvey and grabowski, just like the yankees' 8 for yogi and bill dickey.
I'd put Garvey and Hodges and Kirby Puckett, and Dale Murphy and Jim Rice and Dave Parker in the Hall of Pretty Darn Good, which should be built down-wind of the HoF.
i think it was after maz made it in that they revamped the process.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/tom_verducci/07/26/hall.best/index.html?cnn=yes
http://alienlovespredator.com/index.php?id=4
As far as Jesus in the HOF, I think he pissed off a lot of people because he kept saying that HE was the real Commissioner. Plus he kept turning other players' sunflower seeds and gatorade into fish and wine. Very controversial!!
Thanks for the article link. It makes a much more compelling argument for Hodges in the HOF than I ever could. I did not realize that he was the leading right-handed NL homerun hitter at the time of his retirement. That has to mean something.
Urgeth Urbina has a personal problem (alcohol) and wouldn't be a good long-term addition, in my opinion.
In my mind, you can't be a huge buyer at the deadline if you aren't competitive in 2 races (division and wild card). If you're only competitive in one of those two races, I say be a buyer but not a BIG buyer, throwing money at 6-monthers.
If we add Dunn to our lineup, and solidify the bullpen. We have a good shot in the post season because Penny/Lowe are proven post season performers.
Also, considering McCourt's promises and the salary structure, we should be able to take on money.
Ugie Urbina is not worth what we'd have to give up for him. I'd rather get Billy Wagner for a little bit more.
Are you really advocating spending a prospect and a pro-rated share of $4M on a 7th-inning pitcher?
Kuo is better. Cheaper. Easier to acquire. And adding a 7th-inning pitcher won't make us into a .600 team.
Dozens of people here have been advocating the trade for Dunn. The Adam Dunn Scouting Exhibition or whatever it's called is happening tomorrow or something.
C Phillips
1B Choi/Saenz
2B Kent
SS Izzy
3B Valentin/Perez/Robles
LF Dunn
CF Bradley
RF Drew
Bench - Werth, Repko, Rose, Edwards
That would be the second best lineup in the National League.
SP Lowe
SP Penny
SP Perez
SP Weaver
Bullpen - Houlton, Schmoll, Brazoban, Alvarez, Dessens, Sanchez
In their first two tries, nobody made it and I don't think anyone was particularly close.
The ex-Dodger, in my opinion, who truly does deserve a spot, and will likely never get one unless hell freezes over (continuing on with our messianic/apocalyptic theme) is Walter O'Malley. If there are two executives who should be in the Hall of Fame who aren't, it should be O'Malley and Marvin Miller. Both men changed the game of baseball immensely. However, both men also succeeded in ticking off about half of the baseball world. And the halves they ticked off are disjoint sets so their HOF support cancels each other out. I also don't think any New York-based sportswriter would vote for O'Malley, although I don't know how many of them are still alive to vote. The NY Times doesn't allow Murray Chass to vote. The LA Times also no longer allows its writers to vote for such things, but I think Ross Newhan may still get to vote because he's just an outside contractor now.
Although Miller didn't name names, he did mention that O'Malley found out which Dodgers didn't vote to go on strike at the beginning of the 1972 season and had those players traded the following season. I believe that was Robinson, Valentine, Singer and Strahler who got sent to the Angels.
Of course, O'Malley got back Messersmith and that player turned out to be the one who caused even more problems for the owners.
agreed. That Walter is not in the HOF is a joke.
The Veterans Committee procedures can be found here:
http://tinyurl.com/cepa5
vr, Xei
I'm sure you're kidding, right? This wouldn't be the second (or third?) best lineup in the NL East alone. Choi and Phillips, notably, were traded out of that division. And that doesn't even address our woeful 3B (defense) or SS (offense).
It would be a killer outfield though.
Choi and Phillips, notably, were traded out of that division.
What's that supposed to mean?
My guess would be...
Edwin Jackson, A.Perez, D.Navarro, D.Sanchez
Yes, Loney is a touted prospect, but the only way Erickson is getting off this team is by being traded or being run over by a bus.
E. Jackson, H. Choi, Dirty Sanchez, Jayson Werth
Even though I won't venture a specific guess, I will say if we can get away with only losing 1 pitching prospect and the Devil-in-the-BP then that would be good indeed (especially since I believe E. Jackson to be a bust).
Also, what about Everyday Eddie Guardado as a reliever? I think he'd be a solid pickup for the bullpen, and would probably come even cheaper than Urbina.
I might go Odalis for Urbina/Padilla though.
We'll look back at this deal fondly come 2007, when Adam Dunn is clubbing 50 homers, and Edwin Jackson is 10 and 14 for the Reds.
Actually, didn't Durazo have season-ending surgery recently? Maybe Billy would take him on as a lefty DH/1B.
Edwin Jackson MAY be a bust, but I think there's a decent chance that people will be saying "Just imagine how good the dodgers rotation would be if they'd kept Jackson to go along with Billingsley, Hochevar, and Miller."
It would be better if the Dodgers kept Loney and instead offered Werth and Jim Tracy, but that would add up to 5 players and the rule seemed to be 4 for 1.
Dunn for A. Perez, E. Jackson, and R. Ledee. I'm not sure it will take four players, but if it does it will be a low minor leaguer.
vr, Xei
I think he'll be a league average starter for awhile.
vr, Xei
i think garvey was 5' 10"
vr, Xei
Jackson, Brazo, Werth, Navarro?
Phillips, surprisingly, speaks well of DePodesta saying that he is smarter than the other GMs and tends to look at deals in a different way because he doesn't have the same baseball background as others. He says DePodesta listens more than he talks and claims that you can picture DePodesta's mind going through everything said to him to see if there is anything behind what was told him.
Phillips had the most praise for John Schuerholz. Or at least respect. Says how Schuerholz plays everything close to the vest and never volunteers anything that he doesn't need to reveal.
While Phillips doesn't badmouth anyone, he doesn't seem to like Jim Bowden much.
He also likes Kevin Towers because he's "a man's man."
I always thought it weird that people thought that Lo Duca slumped at the end of the year because he was too small. Wouldn't a big guy get tired too if he had to squat behind the plate all summer?
I had to throw in Tracy because it doesn't seem like Tracy and Choi can exist on the same team, and I'd rather not trade Choi. His value has never been lower than it is now. Choi is an unlucky line drive hitter in a power hitter's body with the Dodger's best batting eye that hardly walks anymore and strikes out a ton.
I didn't realize this was a serious competition. There is no team that would want Erickson. I revise my guess:
Dunn + Rule 5 ineligible throw in minor leaguer
for
Jackson, A. Perez, Loney, Sanchez
two spots open up, Kuo and Broxton get called up, and Erickson, somehow, magically, incredibly, incredulously, survives the cut again.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
As is often the case, O'Brien's style is much the opposite from his predecessor, Jim Bowden. O'Brien has more of an organizer style as he will always dot his I's and cross his T's in everything he does. He is a thorough, quiet and conservative guy.
He tends to be more introspective, keeping his thoughts close to the vest. He is a hard worker, and often sees things as black and white rather than gray.
Jim Hendry (Cubs) - idiot who gets ripped off
The next 3 years will be spent debating who is the better GM - Beane or John Sch___ulz (Braves GM)?
Beane has a dynamic personality. He will tell you exactly who he likes and what he is going after. He believes that if you know what he is doing, maybe there is a creative way for you to help him get it. It is not a surprise, therefore, that Beane finds himself in the middle of many three- and four-way deals.
He doesn't care what people's opinions are about him. He is also aggressive and goes for what he wants. He has the ability to visualize what his plan is and how it works in conjunction with everyone else. He then tries to find a way to benefit from others' plans. Not many GMs can be a GM for his own team as well as someone else's team, but Beane has that ability.
He is one of the few GMs who doesn't say no to every initial proposal. If it works for him, he doesn't play games.
3 Team Trade:
Dodgers Get: OF Adam Dunn, P David Weathers
D'Rays Get: IF Antonio Perez, C Jason LaRue, 1B Hee Seop Choi
Reds Get: 1B Aubrey Huff, P Edwin Jackson,
C Russell Martin
Beane is similar to DePodesta in that they don't take into consideration what public opinion will say about any trade they make.
http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/history/2005/050726.htm
If Oakland does need a 1B/DH, I think Beane would be willing to take Choi off our hands for a decent prospect. I haven't quite given up on Werth yet, and if we get Drew back, a lineup of:
1B - Dunn
2B - Kent
SS - Izzy
3B - Robles
LF - Werth
CF - Milton
RF - Drew
C - Phillips
would be okay I think. Or DePo could use the prospects gotten from Oakland for Choi to flip for another OF. If the starters hold up, Brazoban figures it out, and we get some help from either Kuo or Broxton, we might have a fighting chance with some luck in the postseason, assuming we make it with Dunn.
If Werth doesn't pan out, DePo can go get a good corner OF via trade or free agency in the off-season.
WWSH
A very important trait, considering all the knuckleheads in our local radio and print media. But a good GM should always take into consideration the opinions of DT members. :) vr, Xei
So yeah, I think they will get more than adequate value for Dunn while trying to save face and we all know LaMar is a B*tch to deal with on the TB end.
Actually, giving up Martin instead of Navarro might be an interesting option in a Dunn trade, especially if Fearing is right that we aren't taking into account Navarro's age when judging his somewhat disappointing performance at AAA.
The fact remains, though, that O'Brien will want one of our true blue-chip prospects (IMO LaRoche, Guzman, Billingsley, and Broxton), and DePo may not be able to work out a deal without dealing one of them. Jackson is no longer a blue-chipper with all his recent struggles. In my scenario, I was hoping that quantity might outweight quality to some extent, and that would play to our advantage in farm depth, but in this thin trade market, who knows what offers the Reds are getting from other teams.
WWSH
Valentin can platoon with Werth if need be (in theory) as well as play 3rd base. He can also start 3rd and Robles can be a defensive replacement (maybe their defensive skills are similar but I'm sure Tracy thinks Robles the better defender). That should help with flexibility.
In all due honesty, I forgot about Valentin's return. If he really can man LF, he might be a better option there than Werth, or better yet, we could platoon the two.
Despite his recent slump, I actually can live with Robles at 3B. Unlike Izzy, he seems to have the eye to be a true leadoff hitter, which we could use.
WWSH
94. Yes, both Johnson and Swisher are doing very well. A's have very little need for Choi. I don't see Choi going anywhere this year, except maybe riding some more pine.
vr, Xei
1. Billingsley
2. Martin
3. LaRoche
4. Guzman
5. Jackson
Adam Dunn is not worth any combination of two of these.
Those are only the top 5 of players we've mentioned right?
Just looked at Johnson's profile in the BA handbook. Yep, looks like they don't need Choi. I know DePo couldn't get Riccardi (sp?) to take Choi in a three-way for Hudson last winter, so I assume Toronto still isn't interested in him. I briefly thought of sending him to the Sox for Millar, but I'm not sure what we would do with Millar of all people. And I doubt the Mets will give up much for Choi, since Minaya's no stathead.
If we really can't get anything for Choi, then I'd rather just live with Dunn in LF and hope Tracy comes to his senses.
Anyone think the Mets might take Olmedo off our hands for a good prospect or two?
WWSH
vr, Xei
You think the Angels would trade with us? ;-)
I wouldn't rate Martin that high yet. Too little power, even for a catcher. Don't get me wrong--he looks like another Kendall, but I don't see him in the same class as the other prospects on the list.
And it's not what we think Dunn to be worth, it's what the Reds GM thinks he can get. We also have to factor in what offers he's getting from other teams.
RE: 99
I agree with everything regarding 2005, but we would get Dunn for 2006 for a not unreasonable price, even after an arbitration raise. And he seems open to a very reasonable extension. If we can get assurances on an extension, I think that changes everything.
WWSH
I'm not sure Martin is the #2 untouchable in the organization though, not with Navarro around too.
I suspect that Depodesta envisions a Navarro/Martin Tandem. Both guys would give solid defense and great on base ability and doubling them up would keep them fresh.
I know it's crazy to say that Martin is the second best prospect in the organization, but he plays a premium position and only has one flaw - a lack of power. Compared to a lack of plate discipline in both Guzman and LaRoche. I think all three are really roughly equivalent. Guzman has the biggest upside but the biggest bustability as well.
Wow. We give old-timey scouts a hard time for relying too much on impressions and not enough on stats, and now we're supposed to extrapolate and project from 2 ABs? Martin may not be a star after all, but 2 ABs don't mean a thing.
It's also a .500 OPS.
vr, Xei
2 AB = small sample size
Wow, you guys take criticism tough. I like Martin and think he will be a good player but by that time I would rather see Dunn in Dodger Blue. I wasn't calling him a bust at all.
So we're calling them the "Young Guns?" After they get up to the majors and start getting old what will we call them? The "Big Guns?"
vr, Xei
Dunn 2005
Home: .267/.407/.674 21 HRs in 187 ABs
Away: .223/.374/.460 7 HRs in 139 ABs
So yeah, big power splits and BA splits (likely the same thing -- HRs that turn into outs).
But over the last 3 yrs, the differences are less dramatic:
Dunn 2003-2005
Home: .256/.400/.529; 54 HRs in 733 ABs
Away: .237/.367/.473; 45 HRs in 751 ABs
vr, Xei
Did he actually say scrappiness? I didn't realize people actually said that one as part of the heart/soul jargon.
This data seems weird (it changes arbitrarily) but surprisingly enough, Dodger Stadium and the GAB both play very similarly in regards to homers. Depending on which numbers happen to come through, both stadiiums are either neutral, or ~25% inflated.
Dodger stadium suppresses everything except homers, Dunn's strength.
citizen's one suppresses triples and homers.
Dunn would be a decent fit for us, parkwise. Can you imagine the top of the order as:
Drew
Choi
Bradley
Kent
Dunn
I salavate at the thought.
Of course, if Casey does go to the Mets, Dunn could stay in Cincy. I get the feeling Reds management doesn't likes Dunn that much though.
I need to proof read and go read moneyball.
Well, as I recall, they're only similar in that Dodger Stadium is neutral on homers, but depresses everything else. My impression is that Cincy is a straight hitter's park all the way around, although I could be wrong.
As a TTO (is that what they call it, "Three True Outcomes?) player, Dunn would seem to be a perfect fit, since so much of his offensive production comes from those two parts of offense that aren't reduced by Dodger Stadium, homeruns and walks.
This is also part of the reason why I think Beltre has struggled so much in Safeco, which does depress homers. That, and the fact that Beltre looks right now like a one-year wonder.
Of course, I should point out that this was also probably part of the rationale for signing Lowe. Since Lowe in his career gave up so few homers, the assumption would be that he would benefit from DS more than most pitchers. And then Lowe comes and proceeds to give up homers at rates far in excessive of his track record. Of course, if he continues to continue this recent streak of his, he'll end up as a successful signing and will vindicate the original article Tom Meagher had on this back in the off-season.
I agree on Guzman's potential for flame-out, though, which is why I at least would entertain the idea of giving him up for Dunn. That doesn't mean I'd be enthusiastic about it, though. Being a good GM is obviously about knowing when to take a risk, and when to not take them. Let's hope DePo decides correctly!
WWSH
Tell that to Eric Milton.
I saw that. What are Denker's minor league stats before this season?
I'm confused--is there really data that suggests that GAB suppresses homers. Joe, are you using BPro factors? And you didn't actually mean to say that GAB suppresses "triples and walks" in 140, right? (if you made a mistake, don't worry, I'm notorious for making mistakes in posts designed to be corrections)
My BPro annual has Cincy's factor at 980, which is really surprising, but my annual doesn't break down the numbers into component hits. I always thought BAB was a bandbox.
WWSH
I hope you're right about that. But surely Dunn is one of the premiere hitters on the market. A 25 year old who hit 46 HR last year. Come on! There must be a raft-load of GMs who want him for offensive help.
WWSH
I think that everyone might be undervaluing Dioner and Martin. A few posts ago, someone posted about RotoWorld's top 150 prospects. 9 of the 150 are catchers. We have two. Here're the RotoWorld catcher ranks:
32 Mathis Angels 22 Years
52 Martin Dodgers 22
102 Kottaras Padres 22
109 Saltalamaccia Braves 20
115 Montero Diamondbacks 22
119 Quiroz Blue Jays 23
122 Shappach Red Sox 25
129 Walker Pirates 19
132 Navarro Dodgers 21
Assume that RotoWorld might be correct that Martin is the second best catching prospect in baseball. Now think of the current catching talent in baseball.
Everyone seems totally against trading Billingsly, and he's Roto's 5th best pitching prospect. There are 72 pitching prospects.
The 5th out of 72, or the 2nd of 9?
Compared to other position player talent Navarro and Martin might not be spectacluar, but in the context of production from position, it's possible that they're much more valuble than some of us think. The fact that Jeff Kent plays 2B is what makes him more valuble than an OF'er with his number, right? Apply that here.
What about the Cardinals? Don't they have injuries to Sanders (serious) and Edmonds (nagging)? I'm not sure what kind of OF depth the Cards have at the moment. If not much, could you imagine plugging Dunn into the middle of that lineup? The Cards have alot at stake which is a golden opportunity to win it all, just like they did last year. And Dunn would be a nice insurance package.
vr, Xei
But would Cincy be willing to trade within their division?
WWSH
Any team that can call Dunn an "insurance package" has one heck of a line-up (which the Cards do, but that seems pretty absurd).
Houston would probably try to sign him as a FA. I don't think they have the pitching talent to match LA's, and pitching is obviously what they need.
That's a good point I hadn't thought of before. Maybe we will be able to avoid giving up Guzman for Dunn...
WWSH
Excellent point. I'd be willing to trade Navarro but not Martin.
Hmm. Maybe Navarro and Jackson as the key components in a trade will be enough after all...
But surely his age helps him on that front. At 25, you can expect some improvement with regards to Ks and the like. And I don't feel Dunn gets much bad press in the MSM--as far as I can tell, ESPN et al seem to think of him as a premiere young power hitter, which is what he is.
Anyhow, I hope your right. He would be a great fit at DS--the issue is cost in prospects. And I can live with the fielding, which may not be as horrible as I originally thought, since his numbers are a little skewed in LF by a very bad fielding season last year (using BPro stats).
WWSH
I still doubt it.
Is he fielding better this year?
Bradley and Drew should cover up a portion of Dunn's range problems (at least in the aggregate). People have been complaining that we have such a great defensive outfield for a ground ball pitching staff. One way to get them to stop complaining is to have a worse outfield... right?
Well, the issue is to some extent perception, isn't it? I think it's fairly clear that by the numbers, Dunn has great value, considering his age and production. But the real question is whether or not GMs have under-rated that value, which would then give DePo an opening.
Well, at least the trading deadline isn't that far off, We'll find out soon enough.
WWSH
It's dangerous to make decisions like that based on ordinal rankings. It's unlikely that Russ Martin would make a top prospect list if he WEREN'T a catcher - there's not enough power there, even though the average and patience are above-average. The standard deviation in catcher performance at the MLB level is much less than the StdDev of MLB pitcher, who range from awesome (Clemens, Sheets, Santana) to awful (Nomo, Lima, Milton, Ponson). Catchers are more closely clustered. While a good catcher is a nice commodity, it doesn't benefit nearly as much as a good pitcher.
5/72 = 93% percentile.
2/9 = 77% percentile.
Billingsley is better than 93% of the top pitching prospects. Martin is better than 77% of top catching prospects. I admit that's a skewed way to look at the rankings; I only mention it to provide a different spin on your point.
Seems to be. His BPro Rate2 stat in LF is 95 so far this season (100 is average), as opposed to 89 in 2004 and a career number of 93.
WWSH
During the 1st Dodgers draft, DePo said he wasn't going to necessarily stick to the stereotype that he and Beane only take college pitchers. He said it's just that they were undervalued for whatever reason.
I think, considering the state of catching talent, that catching prospects may be hugely undervalued, and to include one of ours in a deal if we don't have to might be foolish.
There being so few catching prospects is one thing, but us having 2 of them is another. I think the question being asked (or at least the one I'd ask) is, since we have 2 catchers on such a short list, would we we be better off parting with one of them instead of a top pitching or another top hitting prospect, even though, as has been said, the list is top catching prospects is very short?
It should read at the end, "the list of top catching..."
And as I'm sure you've figured, the post is in regard to a trade for an impact player.
If we had to say bye to one of the catchers, I'd definitely rather it be Navarro.
http://www.nysun.com/article/17600
Think this way: Say we were paying 10M to Varitek to hit 20HRs and drive in 75 runs. If we had Martin producing similar numbers at 300k, we could be paying someone like Dunn that same 10M to hit 40HRs and drive in 110 runs.
You're half-right about my last paragraph: the sample size of pitchers is valid (>30), but the catcher sample size is terribly small. I was only using it as an illustration, rather than proof of anything. The catching prospects are all clustered in the 100's, where Billisley and other pitchers are (I'm assuming) in the Top 25. Hence, they are far more valuable.
Scarcity may increase market value, but it does little to increase actual in-game value on the field. Martin can only perform to the best of his ability, which should not be measured on a relative scale. Still, your point is well-taken: there are replacement costs to be considered. My point is that the difference, in theory, between Billinsley and his replacement is greater than the difference between Martin and his replacement.
VORP range for catchers and pitchers:
C 34 to -12
SP 61 to -22 (arbitrary 100IP minimum)
^^^
That's really my point.
I wasn't necessarily advocating trading Billingsly instead of Martin, I was just trying to point out the refusal to part with Billingsly (which I share) and my percieved indifference of everyone for parting with Martin.
Not that Billingsly is overvalued, but Martin may be undervalued. How's that?
There is a 4th MOLINA brother in our Ogden organization.
NO JOKE- He is our destiny.
I still don't think Dunn's worth it this season. If we can get away with D Young, Jackson, and A Perez for Dunn, then great.
im not really a fan of bryan smith. he is a blogger, just like me and you and is not in the field of scouting. he looks greatly at numbers to get to most of his anwers. i dont know he can call denkers season flukey, he just wants want to give love to a 21st rounder. And i dont know how people can ignore matt kemp for much longer, his numbers that he posted in the sally and now this year in the FSL is almost idential to jeff francouers numbers in the sally and in A+ at the same age.
one big differnce is that francouer projected his power with doubles but kemp was already showing his power with his homeruns.
i mean, he just DOESNT want to give love.
its probably has to do with denkers percieved projection, or lake thereof because of his hieght. but i have news for you, marcus giles is the same size as denker, joe morgan wasnt a giant.
whatever. i just think denker is the type of prospect that is just going to have to prove himself at every level because he will always have doubters because he was a 21st round pick.
Yes he was! ;) A real Dodger killer.
oh wow, he put matt kemp into the "no tools" group?
is he kidding himself? hes losing a lot of credibility with me.
as Steve Sax's Sweaty Jockstrap.
or something like that. All that matter is that WE KNOW what we have down there. and we have damn good players.
Donovan
Weber
Young
LaRoche
Loney
Meadows
Guzman
Martin
Hanrahan
http://www.southernguide.tv/channel1.html
Mozilla users should use IE. The video doesn't play in my Firefox browser, but works great in IE.
ive been waiting 2 yrs for him too.
depo needs to make a trade... the suns team could use the extra help to win the second half southern league division title.
I hope so, too.
Billingsley is on the pregame show. He says that a lot of guys on the team know they could be traded at any minute.
dont worry chad, you wont be going anywhere. tell andy, joel, jonathan, russ and james that too.
what is your screename from?
that is awesome.
1) Why does Guzman bat 7th if he is the #2 hitting prospect in all the minors? Is he young for the level of play?
2) Is Broxton a starter or reliever? What are his stats like?
Thanks!
vr, Xei
maybe to not put soo much pressure on him. he tries to do too much at such a young age.
guzman is 20, one of the youngest players in the southern league. the usual age is 22-24
he still isnt up to full velocity. he use to throw in the low 90s, now its in the mid to high 80s or so. hes working out mechanical problems.
-#2
From what I heard (from somebody here), he used to be a starter but was then thrown in the bullpen because the AA managing people want the pitchers to be comfortable coming out of the bullpen because that's how many of them start off in their first year or so in the majors.
I don't know much, but I'd guess he's more valuable as a starter, but then again, what do I know?
BTW, did you get my email?
thats what i thought. i didnt want to say because if i was wrong, i would have been embarassed.
i am a big thrice fan. i remember seeing them in anaheim 5 yrs ago when they were only a local band.
nate, would that have been at Chain Reaction where you would have seen Thrice a few years back?
then they got too popular and too expensive haha.
Oh.. Hmm. The problem is probably on my end.
I was asking about your line-up program. Specifically, how you came up with the percentages for players actually taking the extra base. How do you know that player x takes the extra base y% of the time? And fiddling with numbers, did you notice that the numbers of runs scored per game varied greatly depending on the % of extra bases taken?
I have a small video (about a minute long) of a new song if you want it (release date of the new album is like October 18).
1stTo3rd% = SpeedRating - 10
if Choi has a speed rating of 25, then he has a 15% chance of going from first to third on a single in my sim (given that 3rd base is open). I know it's not totally accurate, but it's good enough for now. I'd be open to other formula ideas that were simple like mine (uses a speed rating). vr, Xei
do they still play any songs from IC? how about anything off first impressions? doubt it huh
vr, Xei
JtD was coined by Steve. It means "Joel The Destroyer."
Rodriguez earned his shot with an unreal month in the minors, piling up 17 homers -- including four grand slams -- and 47 RBIs in only 34 games for Triple-A Memphis.
steve made it up. it stuck.
also when guzman makes an error. its called a banana.
just some FYI.
vr, Xei
Occasionally they play Phoenix Ignition. I think they played it at the warped tour in Pomona....I don't think they have played anything from the first impressions in years.
Dustin played about 3 songs from IC when he did his solo acoustic shows. I have that stuff too if anybody wants it.
how does one follow the AA game live?
I'll take credit for the bananas by the way ;) (Whenever somebody suggested that JtD wasn't really an SS, Steve would say something like "I can't hear you! I have bananas stuck in my ears!").
i thought this site was full of old codgers and i was the only young 20something yr olds.
scanderbeg, whod you see at chain?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-cardinals-rodriguez
Here's his player page:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7605/
1. Perez .823 OPS
2. Loduca .758 OPS
3. Bradley .864 OPS
4. Beltre .713 OPS
5. Green .848 OPS
6. Encarnacion .849 OPS
7. Ledee .763 OPS
8. Izzy .640 OPS
I'm 19, though I've never heard of Thrice before,