Only 2 hours left (either to the deadline or the game, take your pick). I'm getting a little impatient to see what happens with the Dodgers, but I think I can wait...
I think it can out within an hour of the deadline, give or take. I think last years excitement spoiled us all, and we're all expected another mind-blowing last minute trade.
I still think that Depo is going to get in on at least one trade, albeit a minor one. There are enough teams looking to "buy" that I wouldn't be surprised if one of the numerous AAAA players we've been using gets traded for a decent prospect or two.
when did starting your backup catcher at 1st become so popular. Is their something in the LA water? Scoiscia is playing Jose Molina at first, against the yankees. Oh ya, this is his first career game at first. And i thought erstad at first was stupid
Will Carroll just posted his latest "Will's Mill." Only Dodgers mention was about taking on Mike Sweeney's contract. Cinci still claims to be holding on to their outfielders.
On the other hand, I might be wrong...BP is stating that both we and the Angels are interested in Mike Sweeney, and that "Instead of prospects, the Royals are more interested in someone taking on the entirety of Sweeney's contract."
Sweeney's contract goes through 2007 and averages $11 million per year, but that number rises to $12.5 million if traded. He's been having a nice year at the plate, with an OPS of .911, but he has a history of back problems, and his defense is bad enough that JT might keep Phillips in the lineup instead of Sweeney.
To me, this deal looks both bad and very unlikely for us, unless McCourt would be willing to significantly raise the payroll - but only for the purpose of pulling off a splashy trade and not for offseason improvements.
I just don't see it happening unless KC agrees to take some second-tier prospects in exchange for around half of his salary.
I can't see a Sweeney deal. I think that Depo would force Tracy to play Choi before going and buying a $12M/year 1B just to keep Tracy from being an idiot.
Just listened to DePodesta on BP radio (the link Jon gave us). WHat I gleaned was (1) he's not nearly as annoyed with Tracy as we wish he were, and (2) no big deals coming - he thinks (and I can't say he's wrong) that the team is better off finding help in the minors and off the DL. That the Dodgers are trying to rebuild and win at the same time.
Oh, and someone asked yesterday whether anything was a moot point on DT. The answer is that everything is, since, contrary to popular belief and usage, "moot" does not mean "irrelevant." It means "debatable." So everything is moot around here. Well, except that Jim Tracy should be fired. That's no longer up for debate.
Since we are an hour and fifteen minutes from the 'deadline' and still nothing to get excited about, I'll throw this out there. Somebody on the Pirates board claimed Lawton for Hanrahan, C. Ross and Figueroa.
Again, this has zero validity, just wanted something to talk about.
i would like that lawton deal. It replaces most of jd drew's obp, maybe he even replaces izturis in the leadoff spot. The prospects are very expendable
Well I hope the McCourts surprise us and put up some money to be competitive. Right now according to the site Hardball Dollars, there are, count 'em, 10 teams with higher payrolls. Talk about disgusting. I remember when the Dodgers were routinely the big spenders, competent or incompetent. We don't even have the highest payroll in our division. Pathetic.
21:
You should just become a Yankees fan if you consider spending money being competitive. We have the highest payroll in the NL West, just not 'active payroll.'
There is nothing disgusting about being smart with your payroll. Disgusting is spending a quarter of a billion dollars.
Why would we spend $12 million dollars on Mike Sweeney, when we can put an .830 OPS guy (without a bad back) in the lineup just by moving Jeff Kent to first. This is, obviously, not my preferred solution to the problem. But Mike Sweeney makes absolutely no sense -- who cares who you give up for him.
Our payroll is second to the Giants according to the site Hardball Dollars. Please cite a source which defines "active" and "inactive". Money is money. If you look at the 10 teams that have a higher payroll ALL of them except the Mariners are better than we are. I await the DePodologists and McCourtites to pop out of the woodwork and defend moves that are basically incompetent.
I don't think we need to add players, we have enough players coming off the DL in the next weeks that should make us competitive.
The situation does not to me warrant taking on salaries.
Besides, if we can't win this division with this team, then we don't deserve to be in the postseason.
re: #13 That the Dodgers are trying to rebuild and win at the same time.
Who does that remind you of? Why, Fred Claire, of course!
But DePo gets a pass from me if he doesn't do any deals, even though the Dodgers need help. We might be overly enamored of our prospects, but there is nothing but mediocrity for sale out there. Like so much else in this crazy world, excessive hype has made the July 31 trading deadline too important, and no GM wants to look like he got ripped off. No team is going to alter its fortunes very much. The most active team, the Padres, look weaker than when they started, plus desperate. DePo will be glad to have his scouts back to help the team win games rather than scout trade possibilities.
Who do we have coming off the DL who can help us offensively? Valentin? By the time Drew comes off his rehab the season will be almost over, and we will have to play through his power outage, which is a common occurrence after a wrist injury. Valentin has not been good in a couple of years, and is probably nearing the end of his career. DePodesta being wholly unable to confront other people is allowing Mad Dog Tracy to play Jason Phillips over Choi, an experiment that worked oh so well with the Mets last year, and not play Antonio Perez at third because of defense fears. The patients are running the asylum.
I can't for the life of me figure out why so many on the internet give a pass to a GM who has shown very little skill, and a great ability to be lucky until this year. If Beltre had played as he was supposed to last year, we would not have won the division. Now with almost all the Fox contracts gone and a much freer hand, DePodesta goes out and spends 44 million on Derek "Melanoma" Lowe, and 55 million on J.D. "Bum Knee" Drew. Why are we apologizing for a GM making mistakes that none of us would make on our own fantasy teams?
I can't believe anything would make me feel good about having JT as manager anymore, but the Times' "Dusty wants to manage the Dodgers" rumor/article did...
we could have used valentin and his 30 HRs this season. The only way this team could score a couple of weeks ago was with four consecutive base hits. Now with bradley, Ledee, and valentin back in the lineup we should be better off. Now, if tracy keeps Ledee, Perez, and Choi on the bench that's one thing. But it isn't Mccourt's lack of spending that is holding this team back.
So you think we should have had a higher payroll this season. Fine. What moves would you have done or not done which would have increased the payroll while improving the opening day roster?
Sorry, I'm just not a proponent of the "We don't need to make a trade, because we have tons of guys coming off the DL" school of thought.
With the exception of Ledee, the other guys coming off the DL (Bradley, Werth, Perez, etc) are still not playing that well. To expect Valentin, who was 0-40 shortly before he got hurt to have an immediate impact is too hopeful for me. Who knows when Drew will be able to play?
This team has been playing poorly since the end of April, and IMO it's too much to expect it to right itself without a little help from the outside. It's not too much to ask to at least find someone better than Carrara for your roster.
Rick- if you recall our 2004 Opening Day lineup would have featured and OF of Encarnacion, Roberts and Grabowski. Bradley and Werth didn't fall off a tree.
Just because I say DePodesta isn't a good GM doesn't mean I think Dan Evans is a good GM. It's the old argument that DePodologists love to use, that the only alternative to DePodesta is Dan Evans. There is a third choice believe it or not.
#29 - very nice. I can't imagine an entire show devoted to Randy Winn and Chan Ho Park. Although, we all know that 75% of it will be devoted to (1) why didn't Boston trade Manny, and (2) did the Yankees make a mistake by not taking on even more terrible pitchers.
I'm not from Dodgers.com, and have been on this site for over two years now posting on another name. I don't hate sabermetrics, in fact I think it's the way to go. All the smart GMs know who the good players are, it's the good GMs who have the ability to make the deals that get those players and don't overpay for crap like Derek Lowe and J.D. Drew.
39-
I don't think Depo thinks the guys we have coming off the DL are enough to win the division either. But that explanation sounds a lot better to fans than "any trade we make in this market will result in an overall loss value."
You might want to consider focusing your considerable intellect on cricket now. You're being completely inconsistent. On the one hand, the Dodgers should be ashamed because we don't have one of the highest payrolls in the league. On the other hand, DePo shouldn't have made two deals that only a high payroll team can and should make. The price of the Lowe deal strikes everyone as absurd, but let's not forget, this was a result of the Kris Benson-inflated market for starters. If we wanted a proven major league starter, that was the going price. Are you suggesting we should have kept the money, or spent it elsewhere? Who else was available? Think hard.
As for your comments on Drew, you might want to do a little more homework on this. Drew is on the DL because a pitcher threw a ball that hit him on the wrist! His knee wasn't involved! His knee has recovered! Are you suggesting that any player who has recovered from an injury should be avoided? How are you going to keep your payroll high if you set a dumb rule like that? By your logic, we were right to pass on Vlad Guerrero, because he had a bad back.
Anyone who believes we should've kept Beltre cannot complain about getting Drew, a better player with a longer history of being a good player, for $2 million/year less than Seattle payed Beltre. Current stats completely back up DePo's choice here. All the evidence so far points to Beltre being a one-season wonder. Time will tell, but if it was your $11-$13 million that DePo was spending, I think you'd agree that Drew was a more prudent choice, and the results this year have born that out. You can't control for HBP-related injuries, unless you're talking about Don Baylor.
52-
OK, let me apologize for making assumptions. I'm glad you think that sabermetrics is the "way to go".
Now...can you give me a persuasive sabermetric argument for why another outfielder available last offseason would have been a better aquisition than JD Drew?
No offense, but this isn't a site that you are going to win over many people with your anti-depo/mccourt opinions. You would fit in well on the dodgers mlb.com forum, but this isn't the best place for it.
Everyone here is open to all opinions, but for the most part, the owner of this site and it's faithful are believers in Depo and his philosophy. I am not saying that we are right and you are wrong, but you should probably show a little respect coming to a new website.
Mark what you're asking is impossible. I'm not on the phone with rival GMs. With enough money or ability to deal almost any outfielder is available. Our GM has neither.
Dusty has denied the rumors he wants to manage here? HALLELUJAH! I didn't think I'd be glad Tracy was here until I read that one.
The one thing Tracy does do decently is prevent his pitchers from overpitching to the point of injuring themselves (only to the point of hurting our chances of winning).
If DeStupida does not make a deal in the next twenty minutes, how much more is it going to take for some of you to realize that this team is a dead horse?
This season was over before it started--nice 14 game start and all.
I was at a card show yesterday, saw images of Dodger Stadium in the days when it was a wide open pitchers park and just wanted to cry, thinking of all of that Hollywood fun zone that has been built down below. Even the field is a wreck now!
It's funny no one is really talking about the affects of the park and the play.....I'm sure there is a syber stat that will prove me wrong.
The McCourts--all of them, De Stupida all the way to the office staff that sits and worries about their jos everyday should be tar & feathered and run out of town on a rail.
Gotta run, I want to see Peter Gammons (The Rona Barrett of baseball, get his inductance. (For what reason, I don't know)
I'm glad you speak for everyone else on this site but me. I'm sure they would agree to have you as their mouthpiece on each and every issue. So I guess the point of posting on this site is for all of us to agree with each other no matter how ludicrous we sound. I'm just injecting a little thinking debate into the equation. If that annoys you I'm sorry, there are other websites for you to peruse.
Drew is the best hitter on our team, his .932 OPS is be top 20 in the league. His best months have been july and august, he missed most of july. If that's what you call crap, I would love this team to be full of crap.
Somewhere in your rant I became crosseyed and stopped reading. Drew's knee is not an issue? I guess that fight with Bradley over positions was nothing. Talk about a short term memory problem. Does desert air cause senility?
In lieu of a trade, I say we clone a right-handed version of Choi. Then the left-handed version will have some company on the bench when Tracy starts Phillips ahead of both.
73--Drew is still playing? Oh cool, and here I thought he had this reputation for being injury prone. Kent's VORP will easily beat his because of playing time.
Ugh shades of last year when the ESPN.com Dodger message board exploded into hundreds of hate filled rants.
68 - As Jon is proud to point out, the thinking on this site is not monolithic, however, many people here do agree. That said, most here try to keep things a bit more respectful (though you have been here for two years, commenting that whole time?) than today. I hope that in a week everyone's blood will settle a bit. The point isn't that Drew has had knee problems, it is that he didn't suffer a knee injury so past knee problems are inconsequential. What I don't understand is why you are pissed that the Dodgers haven't spent more money, but also pissed that they spent so much on Lowe and Drew.
I'm an avid DT reader and occasional lame poster. I'm starting to see why 'Sons of Sam Horn' went the membership approval route when their community grew.
Folks let's have an objective analysis of DePodesta moves. Believe it or not, you can think DePodesta is not talented and still be a fan of sabermetrics. Just because you disagree with his moves doesn't mean you are a Plashkeite, Dodgers.com message board member, and think math is for nerds. There is another incompetent sabermetric GM and his name is Riccardi. So heavy statistical use doesn't guarantee wins.
Not this year, it isn't. If your "thinking debate" position is that players with past history of injury shouldn't be acquired, say that. But be prepared for more ridicule.
Lively debate is one thing (a good thing). But the points you're making are ill-conceived and unreasonable and have been discussed a thousand times already.
This team IS a dead horse. We just happen to be playing in a division full of other dead horses. There's not much of a point to overpay for a bat or arm right now because that's not going to suddenly make us a thoroughbred.
Drew may be out right now but it's a freak injury. All players run about the same risk of getting hit by pitch in the wrist (which according to your logic, is somehow connected to the knee bone), regardless of how "injury-prone" they are.
Theorize all you want about a great GM with charm and money, but we give some examples of players DePo could have gotten this off-season that are better than the players he did get. The list of 2004 free agents is available somewhere. Who could we have gotten?
If you're gonna illogically rant, I'm all for that. There was a rant last night that didn't make complete sense, but everybody loved it. But this isn't "thinking debate."
I can't believe you are this blind. If I gave you that many millions and you didn't do a comprehensive health analysis on this player I think any CEO would fire you. That is why deals are contingent on players passing physicals. So from your standpoint the contract extension to Dreifort and Griffey were good?
First time poster been reading this website for awhile. After listening to DePo at BP...who do you think DePo was talking about when he mentioned bringing up young guys?
re 85. Don't worry; today is a rare example, and I'm sure it'll die down soon. I think there's a good Benny Hill rerun on the Beeb in about half an hour that should distract at least one combative poster.
65 - I always liked Gammons. Long after he could've mailed it in, he still pounded the phones, developed relationships... a reporter's reporter.
Second hand gossip alert: I remember a friend of mine telling me a story about how he was working at Wrigley Field and Scottie Pippen was in a private box or suite or something. Jim Gray wanted to talk to him and my guy wouldn't let him in; it was the house rule. Gray became belligerent; my guy held firm. After Gray stormed off, Gammons came by and talked to my guy for five minutes. He wasn't there to talk about what just happened but he came by to introduce himself and chat. My guy swears to this day that Gammons was in some way offering solace without talking crap behind Jim Gray's back.
Where are the debates on this site that DePodesta is anything but a genius? Yes we can have a "lively debate" as long as at the end of it I agree with you completely. I'm sorry that I don't believe that this team's current ownership is a good one. And when we lose the division to the lowly Padres and our budget for next year drops to 80 million, I'm sure you'll find another way to cleverly prop up DePodesta.
Fine be objective. Use analysis and statistics. You have not and that is why everyone is so cranky. Your claims are based on this magical fantasy world where Depo gets anybody he wants with his creativity and money. Then you argue that you can't suggest what he should have done cause you weren't on the phone with other GM's etc. Exactly. You weren't, he was, and he made decisions accordingly. I don't think Depo has neccesarily done a great job but I understand what his intentions are and where he's going. Knee-jerk impatience because there is a timer ticking down on ESPN's Deadline Special is what loads teams up with mediocre over paid players.
I can't believe you are this blind. If I gave you that many millions and you didn't do a comprehensive health analysis on this player I think any CEO would fire you. That is why deals are contingent on players passing physicals. So from your standpoint the contract extension to Dreifort and Griffey were good?*
What are you talking about, it isn't like Drew is out with a knee injury right now. In case you were too busy watching cricket or rugby, the man got hit by a pitch in the arm. No injury repot can predict the future ("I see a break in your wrist in 5-6 months, I am going have to reccomend the team doesn't sign you.")
99 If depodesta and mccourt wanted an 80 mil roster they could have had it, they didnt have to sign lowe and drew. Like i said everyone if for some debate, but you keep coming with really invalid points to back your argument up, should everyone just be quiet and say your right?
79-Tough to go at alone in this forum, but u have made a nice effort. Just a warning, this is a message board where you can post:
Our Gm spent 105 million on Lowe, Drew and Odalis Perez, what gives? and get lambasted.
Fact is that our team is horrible this year. Our starting pitching staff, to whom we've given out contracts worth a combined 100 million is average. Imagine how bad we would be if Penny hadn't returned from the bicep tear. The silly arguments about Choi,trading Izturis and Perez's defense etc just fill up the time and mask the fact that our team is below average. The fact we stood pat today is just an omission by our GM that he put together a team that incapable of of winning, so why make a move?
79-Tough to go at alone in this forum, but u have made a nice effort. Just a warning, this is a message board where you can post:
Our Gm spent 105 million on Lowe, Drew and Odalis Perez, what gives? and get lambasted. Fact is that our team is horrible this year. Our startig pitching staff, to whom we've given out contracts worth a combined 100 million is average. Imagine how bad we would be if Penny hadn't returned from the bicep tear. The silly arguments about Choi,trading Izturis and Perez's defense etc just fill up the time and mask the fact that our team is below average. The fact we stood pat today is just an omission by our GM that he put together a team that incapable of of winning, so why make a move?
Where are the statistics you have used? The burden of proof is not only on the person you disagree with, but on yourself as well. I guess my linking to the hardball times and referring to Kent's superior VORP to Drew are not enough for you. Truly we have reached the nexus of insanity when the DePodologists refuse to use statistics to defend their master and accuse their opponents of not using them enough.
This is ripped off from Tom Meagherk, posted on Fourth Outfielder, 4/1/2005:
Los Angeles Dodgers traded catchers Paul Lo Duca and Dave Ross, RF-1B Shawn Green, OF Juan Encarnacion, RHP Guillermo Mota, and LHP Kazuhisa Ishii to the Pimarletbacks for catchers Jason Phillips and Dioner Navarro, 1B Hee Seop Choi, and RHP Brad Penny, William Juarez, Danny Muegge, and Beltran Perez.
We can start there, right? Feel free to add names (particularly Drew). But we have to go back that far, I think, before we can assess the job Depo has done.
114 - We have Kent and Drew, and VORP is not a rate stat, so the fact that Kent has played more games plays into his higher VORP. What is your point in comparing the two of them anyway?
Now going to have to hear all the bad publicity DePo will get for not making a move. Clearly this market was terrible because NO ONE made a significant move at this deadline. DePo did the smart thing and decided to not overpay for just a little help. Be interesting to see the roster moves we make in the next week.
114
I was simply responding to your post which said "Folks let's have an objective analysis of DePodesta moves." What does comparing Drew to Kent do? They're on the same dang team.
I'm going to go enjoy the game in peace. Enjoy spinning your wheels, everybody.
Because someone said that Drew was the best hitter on the team. Yes he is in limited playing time. Using your logic, if I have one at bat all season and it is a homerun, I am a better hitter than Drew. That is why VORP is a superior stat to OPS, because it measures the true value to a team. The more you play the more valuable you are. The more you sit on the DL, the less.
So I haven't been around the site for a few months, and I am very confused and disappointed with the state of the commenting.
It might be worth mentioning to the folks that are caught up in being miserable that no team could be better than .500 with the injuries the Dodgers have suffered.
I am honestly curious as to why some of you people, after rejoicing that DePodesta broke up a team in first place in the division last year, are happy that he hasn't made any moves with a team that is playing below .500.
Our starting lineup today is Saenz at 1B, Robles at 3B, Valentin in LF, and Crapko in RF. Someone please tell me that we couldn't have done any better at those positions.
Well if that's the case that DePodesta failed in making any deals, I eagerly await what his minions have in store for the rest of us in terms of apologies and excuses. I guess because DePodesta was SMARTER than the other GMs, he decided it was a waste of time to talk to them over the phone because their puny minds can't comprehend his grand Ayn Rand absolutist strategem.
it should also be noted that there figures to be a market for overpaid players by the Aug 31st deadline, but that doesnt seem to be something that is in Depo's wheel house. I
125 - Clearly Kent has been more valuable all year, but he managed to avoid a freakish injury with was unforeseen and totally unavoidable (Maybe he could have gotten out of the way, but are we supposed to lob tennis balls at FA and see how good they are at dodging them?) and so his VORP is higher. However, Drew's higher OPS probably means that if he had dodged that pitch he would no doubt have a higher VORP today.
132- Well if you want this team to compete for the division we are going to need Weaver. Who would we have replaced him with? Obviously no team is trading starting pitching in return.
if the dodgers win today and the padres lose, tomorrow's LA times should be a wonderful collection of anti-dodger articles. at least monday morning at work will be entertaining.
No but but but it must be all part of his masterpiece where Drew comes off the DL on September 15th and hits 20 homeruns in a two week period and we rocket to first and and and Bowden is such a dumb GM for not using math all the time and giving interviews to Baseball Prospectus and and and...
So i was just wondering what amazing inside info you have of deals depo could have made today, and didnt. For all we know the best deal he couldve made was jeff kent for a minor league scrub
Doug, I too am very disappointed with the state of the discussions. Used to be some really good content here, and if you had something to say, you said it and it was welcomed.
Rob Malone never seems to post, or at least doesn't post nearly as much here anymore, and that's also a loss.
136- Understood, but either sell off some of the chaff, or procure a bit more wheat. Don't languish firmly cemented at mediocre. I'm guessing that after last year, Depodesta is a bit trigger shy. But this holding onto Weaver business is absolute insanity.
Maybe because the trade market was terrible this year?
How often (outside of maybe Finley last year) do deadline deals really help a team? Injuries, odd decisions by Tracy, and a below average bullpen have left the Dodgers and DePo with several holes to fill.
I have a feeling that if one hole was plugged, one of the other holes would have become harder to fill.
Or to simplify: The Dodgers are a seriously flawed team at the moment. One or two moves may have let them overtake a crappy division, but they would have still been flawed. No need to sacrifice the future for a bleak chance in the present day.
130. Who's happy? This is one of the worst trade deadline's ever. Teams were asking for the farm for mediocre/expensive players. No ones claiming that depodesta is smarter than everyone else for not making a move. Cashman, Beane, Epstien; non of these guys made moves either despite having more competitive teams. I would much rather have broxton relieving rather than baez or farnsworth
What do you mean it was unforseeable? You mean Drew had never been on the DL before for freak injuries. Why I guess we should give Dreifort a contract extension because it is totally unknown whether he will injure himself in the future. I mean we really have no idea. It's very rare for players to get hit by pitches when batting as well. It's totally bizarre. DePo ROCKS!!
re: #133 I was thinking about the same thing. At least being in the NL West this year makes waiver deals a whole lot easier.
Now we just have to trade (if we're gonna) before we pass the Padres. I am comforted that no one else in the NL West improved, and no one else got Dunn.
DePo=God comment: I'm little jealous the Twins got The Greek God of Walks (but they paid for it).
That's it, we'll blame the market! Cuz I read in Ayn Rand's book about capitalism that the market is some kinda big power and DePo loves that writer, so obviously she knew what she was talking about. I mean it's not like Beane made some deals...oh wait he did...well I guess it's our budget's fault, no wait it's the LA Times' is fault, and the Dodgers.com message board. They got DePo flustered and and and he made some mistakes...Go Team DePO...DePo ROCKS!!
Yes we can have a "lively debate" as long as at the end of it I agree with you completely.
Demonstrably untrue, Rick. Kind of pathetic actually. This is a smart bunch, diverse in their opinions, and clever in expressing them. Not your cup of tea, unfortunately.
No better yet we'll blame the players! Cuz DePo used math and players are dumb jocks who are too stupid to draw walks, and a lot of them didn't even go to college let alone Harvard. They probably think Yale is a lock company or something. Stupid players, can't keep themselves healthy. They do dumb stuff like eat meet, DePo is a vegetarian so he has like a higher regard for life than the players do, so obviously they are inferior beings. Go Team DePo!! DEPO ROCKS!!
Yes Steve that was in response to Ratt's objective post telling me to go watch a rerun of Benny Hill. In law school I'm pretty sure they taught us to analyze both sides of an issue.
154 - You seem to respond to everything with sarcasm, but you fail to understand anything that is said. The point is, Drew had an injury history, however, getting hit on the wrist with a pitch in no way validates that he is in fact prone to injury. You assume that simply because you thought he was injury prone and now he is injured you are correct, but this injury is unrelated to your analysis. It is like deciding not to buy a stock after looking at the P/E ratio and then deciding you are a genius after the stock crashes on the basis of the CEO embezzling a billion dollars. Drew hasn't been as valuable as he should have been due to injury, but it has nothing to do with your "analysis" of his history.
Rick in the UK. I LOVE this site. And hardly ever post. But your tone is so shrill, and your writing so sarcastic, that you are hijacking this entire message board. And for what? We get your kneejerk little points, which you just keep on making to hear yourself type. Now give it a rest. I'm sure others on here would second that. Sheesh.
First berate any commenter who dares to point out the obvious failings in the master.
Second, deem said commenter as a member of Dodgers.com, Joe Morgan in disguise, Bill Plashke in disguise, or troll.
Commence making inane witticisms and having conversations that have nothing to do with statistics lest it be revealed that the master's grand strategy may in some way be flawed.
The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position."
I love this site as well. My shrill tone is only a reflection of those who shrilly defend DePodesta at every turn. I ONLY respond, I never initiate, except for my first post which was completely benign and criticized no one on this board. I must be an interesting troll who seeks to use statistics to show flaws, and logic in my arguments. How dare I inject a common sense debate into this board.
So some people wanted DePodesta to be a seller, some wanted him to be a buyer, some wanted him to pick up salary for the sake of it. Clearly, there are different views which is to be expected, but it would be nice if we get the discourse back to its typical high level of quality. Here is my opinion:
1) DePodesta was not willing to be a seller only 4 games back. Thus, the majority of our major league roster was off the table.
2) DePodesta wanted to be a buyer as he has said many times, but there wasn't anything worth buying. When Matt Lawton and Kyle Farnsworth are the prizes of the trade deadline, it's not like we missed out on much. All we have to do is look two hours to the south to see an example of trading for the sake of trading. The prices that were being asked for impact players such as Dunn and Huff were obviously too high since Epstein, Minaya, etc. were also unwilling to pay them.
As far as an overall evaluation of DePodesta, I think it's very difficult to argue that DePodesta is a below-average GM. There are likely a few better GMs (Beane?, Epstein?, ???). But, the majority of GMs are much worse (Towers, Sabean, Minaya, LaMar, etc.). DePodesta's strengths are his abilities to evaluate players and trades. Overall, his pickups have had much more success than failure, and he's made smart decisions about who to let go. DePodesta's weaknesses are slightly overpaying for free agent talent (Derek Lowe) and sticking with replacement players for too long (Scott Erickson and Jason Grabowski). As far as overpaying for free agents, J.D. Drew, Odalis Perez, and Jeff Kent were not overpaid relative to their market values, including age, injury history, and all. Derek Lowe was overpaid, but DePodesta got caught in a case of musical chairs with just one seat left when the music stopped. In those situations, sometimes you have to just bite the bullet and pay an extra $1 - $2 million / year.
Rick, I have never seen anyone so successful at bringing out nastiness in the other commenters on this site. I don't think it is so much what you say but the angry and accusing way in which you it.
I was afraid this would happen. DT got a lot of recent publicity and the kids from the dodger board found somewhere else to post. Increased readerhsip/activity on the board is not necessarily a good thing. I'll take quality over quantity any day.
If you look back up I would say the nastiness started when Steve called my statement that DePodesta was somehow less than perfect "crap". If that is what qualifies for rational debate here, then you should expect nothing less from anyone else.
Steve,
So I'm not allowed to voice my opinion because it doesn't agree with yours?
If you go back in the archives, you'll see that I'm a Dodger fan/Long time Dodger Thoughts contributor that tried to give the benefit of the doubt to the new ownership at the very beginning. They were new and deserved the chance.
I set up opposite to most on this board who didn't like the new owners.
Before the beginning of this season, I predicted this team to be one FILLED with injuries and I also predicted the team would finish in 4th place. Well, they're only one spot away from that. They've lost what? 5 out of the last eight games with the division title still in reach. (or so some think)
And we have no action at the trade deadline.
But if you do read some of the interesting blogs out there, this all starts back to last year when we dealt some solid players for the crap we now have. And come to think of it, you didn't like the word Team Chemistry either!
This team is fast on to its way to becoming the KC Royals.
190 - I agree with your point. There are a variety of ways to make points and Rick has decided to be heavy-handed, sarcastic and nasty. Like others, I don't appreciate your tone. Some other regulars are unfortunately being baited into responsing in the same manner and it is really leaving a sour taste today. Everyone, please lighten up or scram.
189- "1) DePodesta was not willing to be a seller only 4 games back. Thus, the majority of our major league roster was off the table"
I tend not to think of the team as "only 4 games back". I tend to think of the team as "47-57". In the NL East, that's dead last, and "only 13 games back". In the NL Central, that's fifth place and "only 18 games back".
The point of the season is not to get to the playoffs. The point of the season is to field a quality team that can win in the playoffs. Even if by some extraordinary occurrence, the Dodgers beat out the Dbacks and the Padres for first place in the NL West, we're going to be crushed by either the Braves, the Cardinals, or the (Nats/Phillies/Marlins/Astros/Cubs). This team can't win 3 out of 5 against hardly anybody.
Also: "As far as an overall evaluation of DePodesta, I think it's very difficult to argue that DePodesta is a below-average GM."
I think it's very difficult to argue that he's above average, either. We have had two seasons with him-- well, one and a half, let's say. His first season, the Dodgers got crushed in the playoffs. This season it's very likely that we won't even make the playoffs. Now, granted, this is a very small sample size, but there are plenty of other teams out there who have significantly improved over the past couple of seasons, and we aren't one of them.
There is real chance the dodgers may be chasing the dbacks for the division lead. How are they doing this. Glaus and gonzalez havent been anything special after considering their ballpark. Green is putting up slightly better numbers than he did last year, but again, thats all because of the ballpark. Currently their backup 1st baseman/pinch hitter Tony Clark is leading the team in VORP. Vaszquez and Webb are solid pitchers, everyone else stinks. The bullpen has been ok, i guess, if you consider they pitch in the BOB. Theyre outperforming their runs differencial, but you have to respect a team that could be in 1st by tonight. Are they for real (and by real i mean could they actually win the division) or are they set for a collapse like the one Washington is currently going through?
Point taken. But you have to consider as well the level of vociferousness displayed by the defenders of DePodesta no matter what he does. I will be happy to tone it down and engage anyone in statistical debate concerning DePodesta's moves. The problem with doing an analysis using only the free agents on the market is that is not the full market in an off-season. There are trade possibilities as well, and we will never know the full extent to what is out there because many GMs do not comment to the media concerning who they are willing to keep and trade. All I know is that DePodesta has made it a habit to overpay for bad talent. And I also will be happy to debate anyone using statistics on the fact that J.D. Drew is not as good a player as people think he is.
197 - I think we are significantly better than the end of 2003. We have suffered through a bitter and unfortunate year, but the future looks bright and we are finally out of the Malone legacy of bad contracts. Our offense isn't totally worthless and while our pitching is no where near as good as in 2003, if we would have kept that staff we would be much worse off (Brown, Nomo, Ishii, Quantrill, Shuey, Martin). I am not given Depodesta an A+++, but he isn't failing either. I think that he has put us in a position to win in the future and maybe we will even go to the playoffs this year (albeit with the worst record of any postseason team ever).
204-- That does not show his true ability. You need to mate his hitting with playing time. That is why VORP is a more accurate analysis of his value. There's no denying Drew can hit, he just can't stay healthy long enough to hit in that many games.
#197: Once you get in the playoffs it really is a crapshoot. Based on some of the papers I've read discussing winning percentages in a 7 game series, the worst team in the playoffs still has about a 30% chance of beating the best team. Everyone would be happier if we made the playoffs, even if we made it as a 78 - 84 team.
Even if you think that DePodesta is only average, that's really not a bad position considering the group of people he's being compared to. My personal opinion is that he's in the top third of GMs, somewhat objectively and somewhat subjectively. I've analyzed all of his trades and all of his 2005 free agent pickups and so far he has done better than average in both categories.
Is VORP is a position relative stat (e.g. Drew is X points better than a replacement level RF)? The biggest problem I have with using VORP is that I don't know what it means. The formula is proprietary.
215. Scully was talking about groom getting traded from the yankees, wich he found perplexing considering their lack of pitchers, "...and the Yankees really need pitchers, I mean they just signed Hideo Nomo"
Man, I just got to work. Couldn't get the Bums game on XM. Anyone else having this problem? Not even en espanol. This is what I pay $12.95 for a month? To miss Vin say "... and a very pleasant good afternoon" to me? What the heck.
222 - That is close to an insult, that said Nomo is D-U-N, stick a fork in him, burnt. Nomo was a trooper and I wouldn't mind him even getting a HoF vote or two (first Asian and all that), but he should sit out a year or three and see if he can find some life for his fastball. He made a great comeback once already, though I imagine it gets harder everytime.
I'm still waiting for someone to explain how having a knee injury in the past makes it more likely to suffer a broken wrist. I have yet to see anything remotely based on science or logic that supports this argument. What I have seen is a lot of "of course Drew got hurt, he's injury prone, DePo is an idiot."
If it were Drew's KNEE that had been hurt, this might be a passable argument.
#200: I did this analysis about a month ago and DePodesta at that point had gotten better than average value from his 2005 free agent pickups vs. the rest of the 2005 free agent class. Jon posted the results on this board. This type of analysis does not evaluate DePodesta for trades he did not make, but it does compare his abilities on the free agent market to other GMs. Additionally, I've tried to place some structure around trade value and so far adding up all of DePodesta's trades, I'd estimate he's received about 55% of the value vs. the 45% the other side has received. Again, better than average but it does not take into account deals left undone.
Of course, the problem is that none of us can evaluate deals left undone. You want to argue that he's worse because of deals he did not do. I can just as easily argue that DePodesta is better because of deals he did not do. Since there's no data on either side, perhaps we should just call it a wash?
Evaluating GMs based on trades they did not make sounds awfully unsabre to me. It sounds a lot like evaluating a 3B unfavorable because he has man-boobs.
214 - I'm sorry, I don't buy that 30% chance at all. That number is undoubtably skewed by the past couple years of the wild cards making it deep into the playoffs, something that has for the most part been statistic aberrations.
"Everyone would be happier if we made the playoffs, even if we made it as a 78 - 84 team."
We would be "happier" for about five days, or roughly the time it would take to lose the first three games in a five-game series. Honestly, I think I would be happier if DePodesta was a seller at the deadline, admits that the team he's fielding is mediocre, and tries to seriously beef up the team in 2006. I don't get that vibe from his transactions (or lack thereof) at all.
"I've analyzed all of his trades and all of his 2005 free agent pickups and so far he has done better than average in both categories."
You're commenting from a position that can't be argued, because most of the players that DePodesta has picked up have gone on the DL for extended periods. If I say you're wrong, you merely point to the injuries as a cop out. "Well, if Drew hadn't been hurt, and if Bradley hadn't been hurt, we'd be in first place easy!" You just don't know that for certain.
The reality is that the Dodgers are a sub-.500 team. An above-average GM would be able to compensate for injuries to his squad, instead of keeping Jason Grabowski on the payroll. An above-average GM wouldn't have signed Scott Erickson in the first place. An above-average GM would have gotten rid of the impending contractual disaster that is Jeff Weaver.
#211: A better analysis is based on WARP because it takes into account defensive contributions. Besides his offensive contributions, Drew is a tremendous defensive player. The free agent cost for 1 point of WARP is about $2 million. So, to justify an $11 million contract, Drew would have to put up roughly 5.5 WARP. So far, even with his injuries, he has put up 4.9 WARP. Assuming he comes back early September, it will likely be a break-even investment this year. But, estimating that Drew would only play 100 games would have been extremely pessimistic. Based on his playing time history, assuming 135 games / year from Drew is much more reasonable. Projecting out his current WARP-rate to 135 games gives a total of 9.1 WARP which is a very good value for $11 million.
241 - Why is Weaver a contractural disaster? Remeber that Evans got him for Kevin Brown. He'll be a free agent, the Dodgers will recieve a draft pick, and they'll see about a replacement in the off season.
241- An above-average GM would be able to compensate for injuries to his squad, instead of keeping Jason Grabowski on the payroll.
Not an above-average GM in his second year. In two or three more years, if he doesn't have a farm system with some balance, it will be his fault. But you can't blame him for all the Dodger prospects' being in AA.
241 - We are definately a sub-.500 team, but in the playoffs we still might have a shot. We have decent pitching, and Drew will be back. It is not inconceivable that we would be playing the Phillies or the Mets, both of whom would be beatable.
241 -- Since you know I agree with you about Weaver, I'll feel safe asking why you think he is an "impending contractual disaster." Is that because you believe DePodesta will resign him at Milton-like rates? Because offering him arbitration does not seem like the worst case scenario here. If he accepts, he gets a one year deal which is probably comparable to the pitchers who signed last winter (Ortiz money?) Not that that's cheap, but it is one year. More likely, since he has commensurate numbers, he turns down arbitration, gets 3/24 or whatever, and becomes some other team's headcase.
That said, I would have liked to have seen HIM in Washington for Brad Wilkerson.
if the dodgers couldve gotten an harang-type pitcher in a separate deal, i wouldve really liked to see weaver traded for some one to help out next year. Of course he could still be traded in the next month
If Perez pitches this bad against STL with only 2 starters in their lineup, how will he ever pitch against STL if we meet them in the playoffs (wishful thinking)?
#241: Unfortunately, I don't have my academic papers with me, because I'm visitting family, but I do believe it was around 30%, not based on historicals, but based on a statistical analysis of team qualities. For instance, let's say the Dodgers true talent level is a .450 winning percentage and the Braves true talent leve is a .575 winning percentage. That difference is conservative, but still not that large. In baseball the difference between the worst team and the best team is a lot closer than any other professional sport.
241 - erickson pitched very well during spring training and deserved a roster spot at the time if you can't remember just a few months ago. And what about the fact that depo has kept the mlb's best farm system in tact and not traded them all away for over-priced quick-fixes.
Injuries are not a copout if they are based on unforeseeable injuries.
If Drew had missed significant periods of time because of a knee injury, those saying "I told you so" would have a valid point.
Valentin and Drew have missed significant time because of broken bones after being hit by pitches. Unless someone can point to a reputable source that shoes that medical science has advanced to the point where MRIs or some other diagnostic equipment can predict the likelihood that a player will suffer a broken wrist, and the likelihood that he will hit on the wrist with sufficient force to break a bone, this is not a valid argument.
#241: At the time I did the analysis, I used raw WARP data, which is a cumulative statistic, thus it takes injuries into account. I will admit that it was it right around the time that Drew went on the DL, so the numbers have certainly changed. Even now, I'm pretty comfortable estimating that J.D. Drew and Derek Lowe are roughly average free agent pickups. Jeff Kent has been tremendous and Odalis Perez has been below average due to injuries, with the two likely balancing out.
248 - We can only hope that Boras encourages Weaver to go the route of Chan Ho Park. Er, sans Padres, of course. Seriously, if Weaver accepts arbitration, how can you not tear your hair out? We will once again have an overpaid rotation, something that everyone has railed against since the Fox years. I mean come on, if the Padres gave up Nevin for Chan Ho Park, certainly they would have given him up for Weaver. Let's put one more guy in front of Choi.
" gotten rid of the impending contractual disaster that is Jeff Weaver. "
Why is he an impending contractual disaster? Are you assuming that we'll give him a bad extension, or is there some other reason? If he walks, then we should get an extra draft pick, so it's not like we would be getting nothing because we didn't trade him at the deadline.
Now, considering that it's a seller's market we probably could have gotten something of higher value at the deadline that via a draft pick, but keeping him is essential for staying in the race this year.
So it's a calculated risk: do you not move Weaver, take your draft pick at the end of the season, and at worst keep the race interesting for fans into September and at best get lucky and take this silly division?
Or do you say that the value in prospects we would get for dumping Weaver now is greater enough and closer to the major leagues enough than a draft pick would be that it's worth it to throw up the white flag on 2005?
I have to put myself in the later for shrill sarcasm camp.There is obviously merit to arguments supporting or demeaning Depodesta or Tracy.It's been the ongoing argument on the Dodger radar screen ever since the regime change.It will probably remain so until success is achieved.
I have been married 23 years and have found domestic harmony is maintained by knowing how to have a good fight without digging the shiv in.
The ESPN Dodger board degenerated into so much sarcasm,mockery and general nastiness that I fled here for the general tone of civility.This is a pleasant place to muse on things blue.I don't like some of the tone today.
Rick there was a guy on the ESPN board named JMG.If you aren't him you're his rhetorical twin.Lighten up son.Pull up a bleacher seat and lets talk baseball.
For those who are strong with the "rebuilding" concept: what moves, do you think, would dramatically improve this team for next year? Is it addition by subtracting (trading away Weaver, for example)? I don't think we have that many pieces to trade that other teams would be interested in, unless we're
I still think that Depo is going to get in on at least one trade, albeit a minor one. There are enough teams looking to "buy" that I wouldn't be surprised if one of the numerous AAAA players we've been using gets traded for a decent prospect or two.
Is this guy MLB's version of Ricky Williams or what.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4274
Sweeney's contract goes through 2007 and averages $11 million per year, but that number rises to $12.5 million if traded. He's been having a nice year at the plate, with an OPS of .911, but he has a history of back problems, and his defense is bad enough that JT might keep Phillips in the lineup instead of Sweeney.
To me, this deal looks both bad and very unlikely for us, unless McCourt would be willing to significantly raise the payroll - but only for the purpose of pulling off a splashy trade and not for offseason improvements.
I just don't see it happening unless KC agrees to take some second-tier prospects in exchange for around half of his salary.
Oh, and someone asked yesterday whether anything was a moot point on DT. The answer is that everything is, since, contrary to popular belief and usage, "moot" does not mean "irrelevant." It means "debatable." So everything is moot around here. Well, except that Jim Tracy should be fired. That's no longer up for debate.
Again, this has zero validity, just wanted something to talk about.
I agree that Depo does nothing and I can't say that I disagree. There just isn't anything out there worht their asking price.
This is a huge game of chicken, and there will be a flurry of deals at 12:55pm PDT.
I also like the Lawton deal, but short of Dunn I would love to rip-off Bowden for Wilkerson.
You should just become a Yankees fan if you consider spending money being competitive. We have the highest payroll in the NL West, just not 'active payroll.'
There is nothing disgusting about being smart with your payroll. Disgusting is spending a quarter of a billion dollars.
SS Izzy
3B Robles
CF Bradley
2B Kent
1B Saenz
LF Valentin
C Navarro
RF Repko
P Perez
And the Cards are being nice to Odalis, no Edmonds (or scrappy)
SS Nunez
CF Taguchi
1B Pujols
LF Gall
2B Grudzielanek
RF Rodriguez
3B Luna
C Diaz
P Mulder
The situation does not to me warrant taking on salaries.
Besides, if we can't win this division with this team, then we don't deserve to be in the postseason.
Who does that remind you of? Why, Fred Claire, of course!
But DePo gets a pass from me if he doesn't do any deals, even though the Dodgers need help. We might be overly enamored of our prospects, but there is nothing but mediocrity for sale out there. Like so much else in this crazy world, excessive hype has made the July 31 trading deadline too important, and no GM wants to look like he got ripped off. No team is going to alter its fortunes very much. The most active team, the Padres, look weaker than when they started, plus desperate. DePo will be glad to have his scouts back to help the team win games rather than scout trade possibilities.
Ken Griffey late scratch, Lawton still playing.
So you think we should have had a higher payroll this season. Fine. What moves would you have done or not done which would have increased the payroll while improving the opening day roster?
With the exception of Ledee, the other guys coming off the DL (Bradley, Werth, Perez, etc) are still not playing that well. To expect Valentin, who was 0-40 shortly before he got hurt to have an immediate impact is too hopeful for me. Who knows when Drew will be able to play?
This team has been playing poorly since the end of April, and IMO it's too much to expect it to right itself without a little help from the outside. It's not too much to ask to at least find someone better than Carrara for your roster.
Are you saying that DePodesta is a good GM on the basis of my inability to pick better players than him? You're kidding right?
Just because I say DePodesta isn't a good GM doesn't mean I think Dan Evans is a good GM. It's the old argument that DePodologists love to use, that the only alternative to DePodesta is Dan Evans. There is a third choice believe it or not.
...
"Why are we apologizing for a GM making mistakes that none of us would make on our own fantasy teams? "
...
Good point. Umm, I choose the latter.
The authority on everything has entered the building.
just like
moneyball=OBP
that train of thought=ignorance
I'm not from Dodgers.com, and have been on this site for over two years now posting on another name. I don't hate sabermetrics, in fact I think it's the way to go. All the smart GMs know who the good players are, it's the good GMs who have the ability to make the deals that get those players and don't overpay for crap like Derek Lowe and J.D. Drew.
I don't think Depo thinks the guys we have coming off the DL are enough to win the division either. But that explanation sounds a lot better to fans than "any trade we make in this market will result in an overall loss value."
Actually big payroll does equal success as every team except two with higher payrolls than us has a better record.
You might want to consider focusing your considerable intellect on cricket now. You're being completely inconsistent. On the one hand, the Dodgers should be ashamed because we don't have one of the highest payrolls in the league. On the other hand, DePo shouldn't have made two deals that only a high payroll team can and should make. The price of the Lowe deal strikes everyone as absurd, but let's not forget, this was a result of the Kris Benson-inflated market for starters. If we wanted a proven major league starter, that was the going price. Are you suggesting we should have kept the money, or spent it elsewhere? Who else was available? Think hard.
As for your comments on Drew, you might want to do a little more homework on this. Drew is on the DL because a pitcher threw a ball that hit him on the wrist! His knee wasn't involved! His knee has recovered! Are you suggesting that any player who has recovered from an injury should be avoided? How are you going to keep your payroll high if you set a dumb rule like that? By your logic, we were right to pass on Vlad Guerrero, because he had a bad back.
Anyone who believes we should've kept Beltre cannot complain about getting Drew, a better player with a longer history of being a good player, for $2 million/year less than Seattle payed Beltre. Current stats completely back up DePo's choice here. All the evidence so far points to Beltre being a one-season wonder. Time will tell, but if it was your $11-$13 million that DePo was spending, I think you'd agree that Drew was a more prudent choice, and the results this year have born that out. You can't control for HBP-related injuries, unless you're talking about Don Baylor.
OK, let me apologize for making assumptions. I'm glad you think that sabermetrics is the "way to go".
Now...can you give me a persuasive sabermetric argument for why another outfielder available last offseason would have been a better aquisition than JD Drew?
No offense, but this isn't a site that you are going to win over many people with your anti-depo/mccourt opinions. You would fit in well on the dodgers mlb.com forum, but this isn't the best place for it.
Everyone here is open to all opinions, but for the most part, the owner of this site and it's faithful are believers in Depo and his philosophy. I am not saying that we are right and you are wrong, but you should probably show a little respect coming to a new website.
Or an AVAILABLE pitcher better than Lowe?
Mark what you're asking is impossible. I'm not on the phone with rival GMs. With enough money or ability to deal almost any outfielder is available. Our GM has neither.
Again, any pitcher is available to a savvy enough GM with either the money or the talent to make deals.
The one thing Tracy does do decently is prevent his pitchers from overpitching to the point of injuring themselves (only to the point of hurting our chances of winning).
This season was over before it started--nice 14 game start and all.
I was at a card show yesterday, saw images of Dodger Stadium in the days when it was a wide open pitchers park and just wanted to cry, thinking of all of that Hollywood fun zone that has been built down below. Even the field is a wreck now!
It's funny no one is really talking about the affects of the park and the play.....I'm sure there is a syber stat that will prove me wrong.
The McCourts--all of them, De Stupida all the way to the office staff that sits and worries about their jos everyday should be tar & feathered and run out of town on a rail.
Gotta run, I want to see Peter Gammons (The Rona Barrett of baseball, get his inductance. (For what reason, I don't know)
What part of .286/.412/.520 disagrees with you? And please explain how the wrist bone is connected to the... knee bone.
We need another outfielder no question, maybe two. Depo needs to make a move.
We'll see shorty...
I'm glad you speak for everyone else on this site but me. I'm sure they would agree to have you as their mouthpiece on each and every issue. So I guess the point of posting on this site is for all of us to agree with each other no matter how ludicrous we sound. I'm just injecting a little thinking debate into the equation. If that annoys you I'm sorry, there are other websites for you to peruse.
Drew had a long history of knee problems. Try a google search of his name and "knee".
Raise your hand if you don't think this team is a dead horse.
Finally someone who agrees with me! Landon I guess there are two of us now.
Drew is the best hitter on our team, his .932 OPS is be top 20 in the league. His best months have been july and august, he missed most of july. If that's what you call crap, I would love this team to be full of crap.
Somewhere in your rant I became crosseyed and stopped reading. Drew's knee is not an issue? I guess that fight with Bradley over positions was nothing. Talk about a short term memory problem. Does desert air cause senility?
However, Arizona has a nice 5-1 lead over the Cubs in the 5th
I've been a Dodger Thoughts contributor for the last two years, and I can tell you that I welcome his comments anytime.
68 - As Jon is proud to point out, the thinking on this site is not monolithic, however, many people here do agree. That said, most here try to keep things a bit more respectful (though you have been here for two years, commenting that whole time?) than today. I hope that in a week everyone's blood will settle a bit. The point isn't that Drew has had knee problems, it is that he didn't suffer a knee injury so past knee problems are inconsequential. What I don't understand is why you are pissed that the Dodgers haven't spent more money, but also pissed that they spent so much on Lowe and Drew.
I believe the local ESPN radio host refers to him as "Stu-podesta" not DeStupida.
I'm just injecting a little thinking debate into the equation.
Lord knows, we can always use that. So, Rick, why don't you see if anyone else in the loo where you're sitting could do that for us. Thanks.
Please provide a list of all players for DePo to avoid because of weak ulnar styloid bones. Is there a stat for historical calcium intake?
Not this year, it isn't. If your "thinking debate" position is that players with past history of injury shouldn't be acquired, say that. But be prepared for more ridicule.
Also, the DBacks had a slam, 9-1 lead
Lively debate is one thing (a good thing). But the points you're making are ill-conceived and unreasonable and have been discussed a thousand times already.
This team IS a dead horse. We just happen to be playing in a division full of other dead horses. There's not much of a point to overpay for a bat or arm right now because that's not going to suddenly make us a thoroughbred.
Drew may be out right now but it's a freak injury. All players run about the same risk of getting hit by pitch in the wrist (which according to your logic, is somehow connected to the knee bone), regardless of how "injury-prone" they are.
Theorize all you want about a great GM with charm and money, but we give some examples of players DePo could have gotten this off-season that are better than the players he did get. The list of 2004 free agents is available somewhere. Who could we have gotten?
If you're gonna illogically rant, I'm all for that. There was a rant last night that didn't make complete sense, but everybody loved it. But this isn't "thinking debate."
I can't believe you are this blind. If I gave you that many millions and you didn't do a comprehensive health analysis on this player I think any CEO would fire you. That is why deals are contingent on players passing physicals. So from your standpoint the contract extension to Dreifort and Griffey were good?
I'm guessing Kuo is next. I don't know who else can contribute this year. Maybe Billingsley can get a September call-up or something.
Second hand gossip alert: I remember a friend of mine telling me a story about how he was working at Wrigley Field and Scottie Pippen was in a private box or suite or something. Jim Gray wanted to talk to him and my guy wouldn't let him in; it was the house rule. Gray became belligerent; my guy held firm. After Gray stormed off, Gammons came by and talked to my guy for five minutes. He wasn't there to talk about what just happened but he came by to introduce himself and chat. My guy swears to this day that Gammons was in some way offering solace without talking crap behind Jim Gray's back.
I like that story.
Where are the debates on this site that DePodesta is anything but a genius? Yes we can have a "lively debate" as long as at the end of it I agree with you completely. I'm sorry that I don't believe that this team's current ownership is a good one. And when we lose the division to the lowly Padres and our budget for next year drops to 80 million, I'm sure you'll find another way to cleverly prop up DePodesta.
Fine be objective. Use analysis and statistics. You have not and that is why everyone is so cranky. Your claims are based on this magical fantasy world where Depo gets anybody he wants with his creativity and money. Then you argue that you can't suggest what he should have done cause you weren't on the phone with other GM's etc. Exactly. You weren't, he was, and he made decisions accordingly. I don't think Depo has neccesarily done a great job but I understand what his intentions are and where he's going. Knee-jerk impatience because there is a timer ticking down on ESPN's Deadline Special is what loads teams up with mediocre over paid players.
84--
I can't believe you are this blind. If I gave you that many millions and you didn't do a comprehensive health analysis on this player I think any CEO would fire you. That is why deals are contingent on players passing physicals. So from your standpoint the contract extension to Dreifort and Griffey were good?*
What are you talking about, it isn't like Drew is out with a knee injury right now. In case you were too busy watching cricket or rugby, the man got hit by a pitch in the arm. No injury repot can predict the future ("I see a break in your wrist in 5-6 months, I am going have to reccomend the team doesn't sign you.")
Jon did a nice toteboard of the 2002-2005 Dodger roster moves here:
http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/198773.html
Decent company on Rick's Crap List with Lowe:
Radke 3.88
Mulder 3.94
Johnson 3.99
Lowe 3.99
Vazquez 4.29
Maddux 4.32
Clement 4.43
Schmidt 4.56
Our Gm spent 105 million on Lowe, Drew and Odalis Perez, what gives? and get lambasted.
Fact is that our team is horrible this year. Our starting pitching staff, to whom we've given out contracts worth a combined 100 million is average. Imagine how bad we would be if Penny hadn't returned from the bicep tear. The silly arguments about Choi,trading Izturis and Perez's defense etc just fill up the time and mask the fact that our team is below average. The fact we stood pat today is just an omission by our GM that he put together a team that incapable of of winning, so why make a move?
Our Gm spent 105 million on Lowe, Drew and Odalis Perez, what gives? and get lambasted. Fact is that our team is horrible this year. Our startig pitching staff, to whom we've given out contracts worth a combined 100 million is average. Imagine how bad we would be if Penny hadn't returned from the bicep tear. The silly arguments about Choi,trading Izturis and Perez's defense etc just fill up the time and mask the fact that our team is below average. The fact we stood pat today is just an omission by our GM that he put together a team that incapable of of winning, so why make a move?
Where are the statistics you have used? The burden of proof is not only on the person you disagree with, but on yourself as well. I guess my linking to the hardball times and referring to Kent's superior VORP to Drew are not enough for you. Truly we have reached the nexus of insanity when the DePodologists refuse to use statistics to defend their master and accuse their opponents of not using them enough.
Much agreed. People have their opinions and are entitled to them, but it's all in the delivery. Let's keep this site on the positive side.
BC
This is ripped off from Tom Meagherk, posted on Fourth Outfielder, 4/1/2005:
Los Angeles Dodgers traded catchers Paul Lo Duca and Dave Ross, RF-1B Shawn Green, OF Juan Encarnacion, RHP Guillermo Mota, and LHP Kazuhisa Ishii to the Pimarletbacks for catchers Jason Phillips and Dioner Navarro, 1B Hee Seop Choi, and RHP Brad Penny, William Juarez, Danny Muegge, and Beltran Perez.
We can start there, right? Feel free to add names (particularly Drew). But we have to go back that far, I think, before we can assess the job Depo has done.
Thanks for giving some people on this board a dose of reality.
You said perfectly what I wanted to say.
I was simply responding to your post which said "Folks let's have an objective analysis of DePodesta moves." What does comparing Drew to Kent do? They're on the same dang team.
I'm going to go enjoy the game in peace. Enjoy spinning your wheels, everybody.
Because someone said that Drew was the best hitter on the team. Yes he is in limited playing time. Using your logic, if I have one at bat all season and it is a homerun, I am a better hitter than Drew. That is why VORP is a superior stat to OPS, because it measures the true value to a team. The more you play the more valuable you are. The more you sit on the DL, the less.
So I haven't been around the site for a few months, and I am very confused and disappointed with the state of the commenting.
It might be worth mentioning to the folks that are caught up in being miserable that no team could be better than .500 with the injuries the Dodgers have suffered.
Our starting lineup today is Saenz at 1B, Robles at 3B, Valentin in LF, and Crapko in RF. Someone please tell me that we couldn't have done any better at those positions.
Tell that to the Angels who are in first place with more players on the DL.
Huh?
Rob Malone never seems to post, or at least doesn't post nearly as much here anymore, and that's also a loss.
R-E-B-U-I-L-D-I-N-G Y-E-A-R
We might as well get used to those two words.
Maybe because the trade market was terrible this year?
How often (outside of maybe Finley last year) do deadline deals really help a team? Injuries, odd decisions by Tracy, and a below average bullpen have left the Dodgers and DePo with several holes to fill.
I have a feeling that if one hole was plugged, one of the other holes would have become harder to fill.
Or to simplify: The Dodgers are a seriously flawed team at the moment. One or two moves may have let them overtake a crappy division, but they would have still been flawed. No need to sacrifice the future for a bleak chance in the present day.
What do you mean it was unforseeable? You mean Drew had never been on the DL before for freak injuries. Why I guess we should give Dreifort a contract extension because it is totally unknown whether he will injure himself in the future. I mean we really have no idea. It's very rare for players to get hit by pitches when batting as well. It's totally bizarre. DePo ROCKS!!
"We gotta push a leash on that guy so he doesnt get of his cage. Jason Phillips isn't pitching. "
Drew has as good a chance of being hit by pitch in the wrist as any other player.
Now we just have to trade (if we're gonna) before we pass the Padres. I am comforted that no one else in the NL West improved, and no one else got Dunn.
DePo=God comment: I'm little jealous the Twins got The Greek God of Walks (but they paid for it).
Right that was my point.
That's the spirit!
Your on fire! Nice work!
Demonstrably untrue, Rick. Kind of pathetic actually. This is a smart bunch, diverse in their opinions, and clever in expressing them. Not your cup of tea, unfortunately.
Well have an ale on me. I gotta go.
Enjoy living in filth and squalor and don't let the door hit your rump on the way out.
Oh Ratt so funny. Is there a piece of cheese you missed in your fecal matter search of the local alley?
I think that we could stomach your "objective" analysis if it weren't so...um...subjective all the time.
What do you think, Tommy? Impressed by that one, too? He's on a roll now. Hypocrite.
Have any of the injuries suffered by the Dodgers this year been re-occuring?
I guess you can expect Gagne's elbow problem. Odalis has had a tight shoulder before.
Valentin - freak knee injury
Bradley - freak injury
Drew - freak injury
Izturis - hasn't had hammy problems before
Werth - again, hit by pitch, freak injury. He may have had knee problems before (I'm not sure).
I smell a troll.. that is all.
So I guess getting injured at all is a freak injury. Which injuries are "non-freak"? The ones DePo didn't predict?
Don't be ridiculous.
First berate any commenter who dares to point out the obvious failings in the master.
Second, deem said commenter as a member of Dodgers.com, Joe Morgan in disguise, Bill Plashke in disguise, or troll.
Commence making inane witticisms and having conversations that have nothing to do with statistics lest it be revealed that the master's grand strategy may in some way be flawed.
No it really happened. Scroll up if you don't believe me.
Rick in the UK isn't it past your bedtime?
"Description of Straw Man
The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position."
I love this site as well. My shrill tone is only a reflection of those who shrilly defend DePodesta at every turn. I ONLY respond, I never initiate, except for my first post which was completely benign and criticized no one on this board. I must be an interesting troll who seeks to use statistics to show flaws, and logic in my arguments. How dare I inject a common sense debate into this board.
Where did that originate from?
Both Molinas hit home runs for Anaheim today, and then Macier Izturis just stopped a ninth inning Yankee rally with an amazing play at third.
1) DePodesta was not willing to be a seller only 4 games back. Thus, the majority of our major league roster was off the table.
2) DePodesta wanted to be a buyer as he has said many times, but there wasn't anything worth buying. When Matt Lawton and Kyle Farnsworth are the prizes of the trade deadline, it's not like we missed out on much. All we have to do is look two hours to the south to see an example of trading for the sake of trading. The prices that were being asked for impact players such as Dunn and Huff were obviously too high since Epstein, Minaya, etc. were also unwilling to pay them.
As far as an overall evaluation of DePodesta, I think it's very difficult to argue that DePodesta is a below-average GM. There are likely a few better GMs (Beane?, Epstein?, ???). But, the majority of GMs are much worse (Towers, Sabean, Minaya, LaMar, etc.). DePodesta's strengths are his abilities to evaluate players and trades. Overall, his pickups have had much more success than failure, and he's made smart decisions about who to let go. DePodesta's weaknesses are slightly overpaying for free agent talent (Derek Lowe) and sticking with replacement players for too long (Scott Erickson and Jason Grabowski). As far as overpaying for free agents, J.D. Drew, Odalis Perez, and Jeff Kent were not overpaid relative to their market values, including age, injury history, and all. Derek Lowe was overpaid, but DePodesta got caught in a case of musical chairs with just one seat left when the music stopped. In those situations, sometimes you have to just bite the bullet and pay an extra $1 - $2 million / year.
Ah yes the strawman defense. Clearly there is no one on this board who defends DePodesta's moves. I must be arguing at the wind.
Goodbye.
If you look back up I would say the nastiness started when Steve called my statement that DePodesta was somehow less than perfect "crap". If that is what qualifies for rational debate here, then you should expect nothing less from anyone else.
So I'm not allowed to voice my opinion because it doesn't agree with yours?
If you go back in the archives, you'll see that I'm a Dodger fan/Long time Dodger Thoughts contributor that tried to give the benefit of the doubt to the new ownership at the very beginning. They were new and deserved the chance.
I set up opposite to most on this board who didn't like the new owners.
Before the beginning of this season, I predicted this team to be one FILLED with injuries and I also predicted the team would finish in 4th place. Well, they're only one spot away from that. They've lost what? 5 out of the last eight games with the division title still in reach. (or so some think)
And we have no action at the trade deadline.
But if you do read some of the interesting blogs out there, this all starts back to last year when we dealt some solid players for the crap we now have. And come to think of it, you didn't like the word Team Chemistry either!
This team is fast on to its way to becoming the KC Royals.
I tend not to think of the team as "only 4 games back". I tend to think of the team as "47-57". In the NL East, that's dead last, and "only 13 games back". In the NL Central, that's fifth place and "only 18 games back".
The point of the season is not to get to the playoffs. The point of the season is to field a quality team that can win in the playoffs. Even if by some extraordinary occurrence, the Dodgers beat out the Dbacks and the Padres for first place in the NL West, we're going to be crushed by either the Braves, the Cardinals, or the (Nats/Phillies/Marlins/Astros/Cubs). This team can't win 3 out of 5 against hardly anybody.
Also: "As far as an overall evaluation of DePodesta, I think it's very difficult to argue that DePodesta is a below-average GM."
I think it's very difficult to argue that he's above average, either. We have had two seasons with him-- well, one and a half, let's say. His first season, the Dodgers got crushed in the playoffs. This season it's very likely that we won't even make the playoffs. Now, granted, this is a very small sample size, but there are plenty of other teams out there who have significantly improved over the past couple of seasons, and we aren't one of them.
Point taken. But you have to consider as well the level of vociferousness displayed by the defenders of DePodesta no matter what he does. I will be happy to tone it down and engage anyone in statistical debate concerning DePodesta's moves. The problem with doing an analysis using only the free agents on the market is that is not the full market in an off-season. There are trade possibilities as well, and we will never know the full extent to what is out there because many GMs do not comment to the media concerning who they are willing to keep and trade. All I know is that DePodesta has made it a habit to overpay for bad talent. And I also will be happy to debate anyone using statistics on the fact that J.D. Drew is not as good a player as people think he is.
I agree with that. When James Carville says something like that, it's called "spin."
I prematurely commented on a Youkilis to Minn deal, because if Depo=God than BP=bible ;) It didn't happen.
Nice, going the other way Izzy...but stop at 2nd, please.
Even if you think that DePodesta is only average, that's really not a bad position considering the group of people he's being compared to. My personal opinion is that he's in the top third of GMs, somewhat objectively and somewhat subjectively. I've analyzed all of his trades and all of his 2005 free agent pickups and so far he has done better than average in both categories.
Yeah, but I think the point we were trying to make earlier is that Drew's time missed due to injury this year wasn't anything reoccuring.
Among right fielders, JD Drews VORP this year is 30.5 which is good enough for 6th best among ML right fielders.
What did he say?
Et tu, Nomo?
STL lineup is mostly subs today, maybe that's why Perez is doing well.
If it were Drew's KNEE that had been hurt, this might be a passable argument.
Of course, the problem is that none of us can evaluate deals left undone. You want to argue that he's worse because of deals he did not do. I can just as easily argue that DePodesta is better because of deals he did not do. Since there's no data on either side, perhaps we should just call it a wash?
"Everyone would be happier if we made the playoffs, even if we made it as a 78 - 84 team."
We would be "happier" for about five days, or roughly the time it would take to lose the first three games in a five-game series. Honestly, I think I would be happier if DePodesta was a seller at the deadline, admits that the team he's fielding is mediocre, and tries to seriously beef up the team in 2006. I don't get that vibe from his transactions (or lack thereof) at all.
"I've analyzed all of his trades and all of his 2005 free agent pickups and so far he has done better than average in both categories."
You're commenting from a position that can't be argued, because most of the players that DePodesta has picked up have gone on the DL for extended periods. If I say you're wrong, you merely point to the injuries as a cop out. "Well, if Drew hadn't been hurt, and if Bradley hadn't been hurt, we'd be in first place easy!" You just don't know that for certain.
The reality is that the Dodgers are a sub-.500 team. An above-average GM would be able to compensate for injuries to his squad, instead of keeping Jason Grabowski on the payroll. An above-average GM wouldn't have signed Scott Erickson in the first place. An above-average GM would have gotten rid of the impending contractual disaster that is Jeff Weaver.
"Omnia Gallia in tres partes divisa est."
Not an above-average GM in his second year. In two or three more years, if he doesn't have a farm system with some balance, it will be his fault. But you can't blame him for all the Dodger prospects' being in AA.
That said, I would have liked to have seen HIM in Washington for Brad Wilkerson.
Injuries are not a copout if they are based on unforeseeable injuries.
If Drew had missed significant periods of time because of a knee injury, those saying "I told you so" would have a valid point.
Valentin and Drew have missed significant time because of broken bones after being hit by pitches. Unless someone can point to a reputable source that shoes that medical science has advanced to the point where MRIs or some other diagnostic equipment can predict the likelihood that a player will suffer a broken wrist, and the likelihood that he will hit on the wrist with sufficient force to break a bone, this is not a valid argument.
Why is he an impending contractual disaster? Are you assuming that we'll give him a bad extension, or is there some other reason? If he walks, then we should get an extra draft pick, so it's not like we would be getting nothing because we didn't trade him at the deadline.
Now, considering that it's a seller's market we probably could have gotten something of higher value at the deadline that via a draft pick, but keeping him is essential for staying in the race this year.
So it's a calculated risk: do you not move Weaver, take your draft pick at the end of the season, and at worst keep the race interesting for fans into September and at best get lucky and take this silly division?
Or do you say that the value in prospects we would get for dumping Weaver now is greater enough and closer to the major leagues enough than a draft pick would be that it's worth it to throw up the white flag on 2005?
I have been married 23 years and have found domestic harmony is maintained by knowing how to have a good fight without digging the shiv in.
The ESPN Dodger board degenerated into so much sarcasm,mockery and general nastiness that I fled here for the general tone of civility.This is a pleasant place to muse on things blue.I don't like some of the tone today.
Rick there was a guy on the ESPN board named JMG.If you aren't him you're his rhetorical twin.Lighten up son.Pull up a bleacher seat and lets talk baseball.