i read that this morning but didn't mention it because i didn't want to steal your thunder. the milton bradley soap opera wasn't the low point of the season for you?

1 I covered that, didn't I?

What did Derek Lowe do this time? Is he repsonsible for Michele Tafoya leaving MNF early to go on maternity leave?

3 - No, he pitched eight more brilliant innings. I guess that wasn't clear, which is too bad.

That should make Michele Tafoya's husband happy.

I think Depo has shown plenty of humility this year. He needs more backbone.

Will Willie Aybar be a fixture at 3rd base next year?

I have been impressed with his ab's and his defense.

The line where the Cubs MVP is Neifi Perez is very funny.

The Cubs have their Neifi. The Dodgers have their Phillips (can't use a first name for him). The Mets have their Cairo.
The Angels have their Finley.

I'm trying to think of other team's offensive millstones who keep showing up in the lineup for reasons that elude most others.

Tony La Russa, what a buzzkill:

But manager Tony La Russa wants none of it. And the Cardinals did not uncork the champagne following Thursday's win.

"As a team, we're traditional to think that we're not going to get into Wild Card formulas," said La Russa. "The magic number has got to be zero to celebrate. And it's one, right? Trust me, it's one. But because of our record against Houston and all that, technically... But we went through this last year. When it gets to zero, that's when we celebrate."

2 yeah, but i guess for me it wasn't as much just one more piece of the tragic puzzle; it was emblematic of the wasted potential of a lost season. it had kind of a senselessness to it that for me, encapsulated everything that was wrong in one complicated emotion. it was definitely THE absolute lowpoint, rather than just one of the many.

After last night's win the Dodgers playoff chances, according to BP, went up from 1.96% to 2.07%

The Reds have a .0001% chance of winning the wild card. Line up for tickets now.

Jon, liked the writeup at BA. I agree with your LVP comment about Erickson. vr, Xei

9 Well, I think I may be missing the point, but the Nationals have their Cristian Guzman.

The Orioles have their Sammy Sosa, but I'm not sure he still plays.

Nice piece Jon. If the 12-2 start is the Daisy Hill Puppy Farm, is the rest of the season an asphalt parking lot?

12 - I think that's safe to say.

14
Sam, that's what I was thinking of. I think Sosa is out for the rest of the year.

Sosa has to be the biggest bust of the year in the majors doesn't he?

LA Times says Buntermaker considering going to a four man rotation the rest of the season. I would assume it would be, Penny, Lowe, Weaver and Dessens.
vr, Xei

8 i totally read that as "i have been impressed with his abs..."

and then i started wondering if you were looking at pictures of him with his shirt off or something.

The Mariners have their Adrian Beltre (shhh, don't tell Plaschke). He's even started booting routine groundballs. Psychologically, the guy seems totally vershtunkene.

12 - If you refer back to the BP charts for the AL West right about the All-Star break. The A's literally went from like 0.96% to the ~70s.

16 - He's got competition from Beltre. And Beltran's VORP this year is Randy Winn-esque.

Nice summary Jon- I imagine many outsiders are surprised to hear "it's the pitching stupid."

Re: Lowe. Here's the updated FA Starter ERA toteboard. Did I miss anyone?

Pedro 2.93
Millwood 3.02
Lowe 3.57
Loaiza 3.79
Radke 3.91
Benson 4.16
Clement 4.33
Wells 4.35
Lieber 4.42
Odalis Perez 4.73
Pavano 4.77
Wright 5.37
Milton 6.55
Lima 6.66
Russ Ortiz 6.88

15 Nah, the rest of the season is Cruella DeVille's coat closet.

Turns out the Blue Jays have the smallest nonzero chance of making the playoffs.

They are at .00007%

They better beat Boston tonight to keep their hopes up!

16 I sort of hate to say it, but the Mariners have their Adrian Beltre. Not sure it it quite works, though. He hasn't been ADRIAN BELTRE 2004 by any stretch, but hasn't completely and totally befouled the dugout. (He has 80 RBI, though an OBP of .302, tied with Deivi Cruz and .001 behind Neifi!). Or has he?

It is really something to pull his page up and compare the stats from last year to this. What a bummer.

sorry -- was writing 24 while others were already posting the same thing.

21 Add Paul Byrd 3.70. He of the 89 k's in 187 IP.

[21] clemens? doesn't he count as a FA?

12. Bob, what factors do they take into account when calculating this? Do they take into consideration strength of schedule? Do they list their method? Just using my Texas Instruments TI-36X calculator I get a percentage of 2.2097087% for us tying for first place. I don't think my way of calculating it is the best way, so I was wondering how they did it. vr, Xei

Tom Hoffarth updates on the whereabouts of everybody's "favorite" FSN reporter:
http://www2.dailynews.com/sports/ci_3033345

It's toward the bottom of the column.

28

This is what they say at the bottom of the page:
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

Can you list the FA pitchers with VORP instead of ERA? ERA can be a bit of a misleading stat. Where does one find the current VORP of all MLB players? vr, Xei

30. wow! Don't try this at home folks, you might pull a brain muscle. My method had similiar results and only took about 4 calculator key punches. Interesting nonetheless that someone developed such a complex method for this. vr, Xei

31
http://tinyurl.com/99eoz

30

I can best explain the postseason odds report by saying that I cut and pasted the information. I have very little idea what it means.

We need Fearing Blue around to explain it. He's the math guy.

18- You are the only one thinking of Aybar's abs.

35 haha, good to know. but hey, at least i'm not thinking about jockstraps or anything :)

24 -- Somebody has to drive in those runners at third with the routine groundout.

Beltre's RBI numbers are a function of playing every day and his position in the lineup.

36- A Steve Sax sweaty one at that.

33. TinyUrl is firewalled on the computer I'm currently using. Could you give me the regular URL, or perhaps just the host site and I can click and find the VORP page.
Thanks, vr, Xei

According to Dodger Notes, Cesar Izturis is having his Tommy John Surgery today.

2005 VORP:
Pedro     59.6
Millwood 46.4
Loaiza      37.8
Byrd      37.7
Radke      34.1
Clement    25.1
Wells      23.9
Lowe      23.8
Lieber    20.3
Benson    18.8
Odalis Perez 6.0
Wright    5.7
Pavano    -1.0
Russ Ortiz -18.9
Lima      -23.1
Milton    -25.0

39
For future refrence:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=3

39 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=3

Interesting article on Hardball Times about why David Ortiz should NOT be the AL MVP. I wonder if the author is from NY. :)
vr, Xei

Thanks for the VORP list and url. I will bookmark it on this computer. This list does put into better perspective the rankings of the FA pitchers. Lowe goes from top echelon to middle of the pack.
vr, Xei

I was trying to make an analogy, "If the Dodgers season happened to another team," like, say, the Red Sox, seems it would be somewhat like this:

*Bill Mueller blows out his knee 2 weeks into the season and doesn't come back until August
*Keith Foulke goes down with an arm injury 1 month into the season
*David Ortiz gets hit by a pitch and is out for the season
*Manny Ramirez goes down for 2 months, come back for 2 weeks, then has a season-ending injury
*Significant numbers of at-bats are given to Kapler, Youkilis and other unworthies
*For significant stretches of the season, Terry Francona decides to replaces Kevin Millar at 1B with Doug Mirabelli
*Epstein gets blamed for all of it

Obviously no analogy is perfect, but would we say this is a somewhat apt analogy?

Kevin Millar isn't a whole lot better than Jason Phillips.

Red Sox fans have a nickname for him that can't be repeated her but it rhymes with "Duckface".

My cable connection went out for about 45 minutes and I'm afraid now that I will never know how the movie "Timeline" ends.

This will forever remain a mystery.

pitching wins championships, with help from offense.
it would be nice to go into next season with odalis perez as our 5th starter, with penny and lowe (both under contract) ahead of him.
i'm not sold on houlton, and weavers agent boras is gonna want big bucks for weaver.

are there 2 reasonably priced free agent starting pitchers that are better than odalis perez?

i think if we can get those 2 free agent pitchers and pick up free agent giles and obtain bradley,cruz,seanz, we can make some noise next season and noise in the playoffs.

49 If Odalis Perez is healthy, and our 5th starter, the Dodgers will win the World Series.

24 Sam, throw out Beltre's 2004 and you will find that he is hitting his career numbers perfectly.

Which is why Dan Evans traded for Tyler Houston.

51 And Robin Ventura.

And Mike Crudale.

46 yeah and you can add alot more to the list...

THE ROAD GOES EVER ON AND ON

Crudale. Bob I just laughed so hard. I thought the Houston one was bad enough.

49 - Nope. The free agent pitching market looks even more dismal than last year - Burnett and not much else. I read on a Cardinals blog that they might decline their option on Mulder but given the market I don't know why they would do that, even with his health problems. Weaver's price will be high partly because he will be one of the better options on the market.

The only way we get two pitchers who are signifcantly better and cheaper than Perez is if Billingley explodes out of the gate (unlikely) and some clueless GM offers us a young, cheap ace in a trade (given the market, unlikely for any price less than the entire Jacksonville infield).

Sorry this is going to be a long post.
Thanks to
http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagent.html for the list to work with.
I've pruned a lot of names but it is a long list.

Below is a list of possible free agents by position. I'm going to
comment on some that I think we might want to persue.
Possible Free Agents
Catchers:-We have might have a need for a veteran backup so that is what I'll look for.
J.R. House (Rehab)
Greg Myers
Charles Johnson
Gary Bennett
Kelly Stinnett-Okay with me
Alberto Castillo
Todd Pratt-Would be my favorite
Ramon Hernandez
John Flaherty
Brad Ausmus
Eddie Perez
Mike Piazza
Bengie Molina
Ivan Rodriguez (Poss. Team Void Option)
Einar Diaz
Todd Greene (Team Option)
Gregg Zaun (Team Option)
Paul Bako
Mike DiFelice

1st Base-If Choi is not the answer and it
appears that management believes he's not then they might want to upgrade here if Saenz walks to AL to be a fulltime DH.
Frank Thomas (Player + Team option)
J.T. Snow
John Olerud
Roberto Petagine -might be worth a one year shot. In his early years would have been a Depo player.
Tim Salmon
Doug Mientkiewicz (Vesting Option)
Kevin Millar-not a fan
Paul Konerko-will get alot of money but I don't think we will persue him.
Scott Hatteberg (Team Option)
Eduardo Perez-would fit in a platton against LHP
Robert Fick
Greg Colbrunn
Mark Sweeney
Tino Martinez (Team Option)
Daryle Ward-we tried that once didn't we
Travis Lee
Olmedo Saenz
Erubiel Durazo-can only DH
Brian Buchanan

Given the options they should just let Choi accumulate 500 at bats.

Second Base:-No needs, just leaving them for everyone to check out.
Ray Durham (Player Option)
Damion Easley
Frank Menechino (Team Option)(arb.)
Tony Graffanino
Todd Walker (Team + Player options)
Eric Young (Team Option)
Damian Jackson
Ronnie Belliard (Team Option)
Manny Alexander
Marlon Anderson
Mark Grudzielanek
Pokey Reese (Team Option)
Miguel Cairo
Joe McEwing

Third Base:-Is Aybar the answer. Wouldn't hurt to have backup but no one is interesting other then Mueller.
Scott Spiezio
Bill Mueller
Wes Helms
Joe Randa
Jeff Cirillo
Geoff Blum
Brandon Larson

Shortstop:Is Robles the answer until Izzy comes back or do we look for a replacement for the long term.
Royce Clayton
Chris Woodward
Desi Relaford
Alex Gonzalez (FLA)
Nomar Garciaparra-one year deal at 3b would be okay
Deivi Cruz
Jose Hernandez
Jose Valentin-tried that didn't we
Luis Lopez
Ramon Martinez
Alex Gonzalez (TB)
Rafael Furcal-being the only good SS available he's going to get alot of money and I don't think it will be from us even though
he would be huge upgrade.
Rich Aurilia
Rey Sanchez
Neifi Perez

Left Field:-Pickings are slim
Raul Mondesi
Reggie Sanders-aren't we guaranteed a playoff spot if we sign him.
Eli Marrero
John Mabry
B.J. Surhoff
Carlos Lee (Team Option)-Love to have him but can't imagine the Brewers not picking up his option.
Bobby Higginson
Hideki Matsui* (please see his contract for details)-not going to leave the Yankee's.
Rondell White (Rehab)
Randy Winn (Mutual Option)
Jeff Conine
Jeffrey Hammonds (Retired)
Todd Hollandsworth

Center Field:Picking are slim
Marquis Grissom
Roger Cedeno
Jacque Jones-could play LF and platton with Werth but would he come if he was platooned and again he's only an upgrade because our outfielders not name Drew/MB were so bad.
Carl Everett (Team Option)-
Craig Biggio
Preston Wilson
Jay Payton (Team Option)
Bernie Williams
Kenny Lofton
Curtis Pride
Johnny Damon-Were not going to pay him the huge contract he's going to get.

Right Field:
Michael Tucker
Sammy Sosa (Team Option)
Larry Walker (Team Option)-maybe between him and DJ we could get 140 games.
Juan Encarnacion
Gabe Kapler
Orlando Palmeiro
Jose Cruz Jr.-Might have to attempt to sign him given the dearth of options.
Jacob Cruz
Richard Hidalgo-Could take a chance but I wouldn't
Juan Gonzalez
Dustan Mohr (Mutual Option)
Moises Alou (Player Option)
Jeromy Burnitz (Mutual Option)
Brian Jordan
Matt Lawton
Brian Giles-Again he will get a truckload of money because he is the best power/obp option on the whole bloody group.

What a pathetic group of free agents. I don't see any help here for our powerless corner outfielders situation if Drew becomes out CF. We better make nice with Milton and get him back in the fold.

Pitchers:
RHSP:
Miguel Asencio
Pedro Astacio
Matt Morris
Scott Elarton-Could be interesting. Pitching in Dodger stadium might be worth a shot. He is one of those pitchers who was a big prospect, then arm surgery, then Coors. Now he's two years removed and while his overall season has been average, he has had some moments.
Elmer Dessens (Mutual Option)-I'd sign him.
A.J. Burnett-Best talent, injury prone and inconsistent. I'd let someone else spend the big money on him.
Jeff Weaver- I like Weaver. I'd offer him arbitration in case he doesn't get the big deal he's looking for. One year at 10 mill I could live with.
Jason Schmidt (Team Option)-Giant will take the option
Jeff Suppan (Team Option)-I'd be interested at a decent price. Could pitch well in Dodger stadium.
John Thomson (Team Option)-I'd be interested at a decent price
Steve Trachsel (Team Option)
Brett Tomko
Kevin Brown
Brian Moehler
Jason Johnson
Paul Byrd-Had a good year with the Angels.
Joe Mays (Team Option)
Jamey Wright
Jose Lima
Ismael Valdez
Kevin Millwood-One of the top 5 free agent pitchers. Do we bite? His win/loss
record is not indicative of his season. He was very good.
Esteban Loaiza (Mutual Option)
Roger Clemens
Scott Erickson-He's a must have. Where would we be if he hadn't been on the team. Only one per year get to be LVP
Tony Armas Jr.

LHSP:
Kirk Rueter
Tom Glavine (Mutual Option)
Al Leiter
Brian Anderson
Mark Redman (Mutual Option + Player Option)
Jamie Moyer
Kenny Rogers-I think he'd flourish here. He's pitched in the Metrodome and Texas without embarrassing himself and if were lucky he'll push Simers into Plaschke and put them both in the hospital. Plus he's old and wouldn't be looking for long deal and block our youngsters.
Ted Lilly-I'd bite
John Halama
Shawn Estes
Jarrod Washburn
Glendon Rusch (Player Option)-Could be usefull here if Dessens leaves. Can
start and relief but unlike Dessens he does better as a starter then in relief.

more about 49.
?
?
penny
lowe
perez

gagne
sanchez
dessens
3 of houlton/broxton/brazoban/osoria/schmoll

drew*
kent*
giles*
choi/seanz*
aybar*
perez*
bradley*
martin/navarro*
werth
ledee
robles
cruz

* is starters

We're not going to get Giles. His price will be too high, and, more importantly, the Padres will probably quite happily pay him a solid 4-year contract -- because they're happy with him, he's a home-town guy, and also because it keeps him away from the Giants, Dodgers, and D-Backs.

Will the Dodgers offer Bradley arbitration? And, if so, would he take it?

Those are the interesting questions. If Bradley returns, I suspect Depo will flesh out the OF depth by resigning Werth and Jose Cruz Jr. If Bradley isn't around, then we'd start shopping.

With the lack of pitching FA talent, and our need to improve our starting depth, the other interesting question will be whether Depo will try working a trade to get us another solid starter.

I like Weaver. I'd offer him arbitration in case he doesn't get the big deal he's looking for.

What is the deadline for players accepting or declining arbitration? I was under the impression that it was before most all free agent signings.

JW - The Daisy Hill Puppy Farm reference was particularly inspired.

29 Apparently she's now my favorite former FSN reporter.

see this is why i don't like a 90 million payroll.
if we had money i'd go after burnett and millwood and giles and obtain any of the current dodger players in post 58 that are unsigned and arbitration eligible.

world series material.

My cable connection went out for about 45 minutes and I'm afraid now that I will never know how the movie "Timeline" ends.

I could tell you, but I won't :)

BTW, IMO `Timeline' was Crichton most enjoyable book by far, but I'm a sucker for a good `oh no, we're stuck in the middle ages, and we have to fit in' plotline...

burnett, millwood, giles would cost 30-32 million combined i believe.

Fearless Stupid Prediction: The Dodgers will trade Edwin Jackson, Milhouse Bradley and Free Seop Choi to the Tigers for Carlos Pena and one of their young starting pitchers.

Choi or APerez might've been candidates for LVP, but only because of the way they've been (mis)used.

The Cardinals are up on the Cubs 3-1 in the fourth. If they hold on, Tony La Russa will let his team celebrate making the playoffs.

Few things will make Cubs fans angrier than watching the Cardinals celebrate on the field at Wrigley.

65 It's a nice fantasy.

It's the same in Chicago as here.

In the Cubs-Cardinals game chatter on BTF, the Cubs fans are getting more excited over watching the Southern League playoffs than anything else.

64 I wouldn't touch Burnett with a 10 foot pole. Boston or the Yankees are going to shell out a 5 year, 65 million dollar contract, and then get burned when he gets hurt. Injury prone pitchers scare me way more than injury prone hitters.

The Cubs announcers also read a question from a fan who asked why the Cubs didn't play more "smallball".

Bob Brenly, much to my surprise, said that smallball is overrated.

The Chicago Sun-Times also has a piece today by a columnist pretty much stating that the White Sox are wearing the emperor's new clothes.

AJ Burnett...

BOOO!

Now Brenly is talking about how important bunting is in the playoffs. Brenly should know since the DBacks won the World Series in 2001 despite his team's inept bunting in the ninth inning of Game 7.

57 - Why are you so sure Matsui won't leave the Yankees? I mean, if he were so intent on staying and they were so intent on keeping him, he'd be signed for the future. I don't think anyone who's going to be a free agent has no intention of leaving their team.

If we can get Matsui this offseason, I will be a very happy man. Far happier than if we get Giles thanks to the age factor.

66. haha! The ole Cubs/Cardinals rivalry alive and well. I may have posted this many moons ago, I don't remember. But when I was in St Louis this summer we went on a river boat ride on the Tom Sawyer on the Mississippi river along the St Louis waterfront. The captain while giving his tour made a joke. He said the Cubs just announced that they were going to change the surface of their playing field from grass to cardboard, since they are a much better team on paper. ba-doom-boom!
vr, Xei

i don't see why mccourt can't bite the bullet 1 year (2006) in payroll, when in 2007 your gonna have martin navarro choi aybar guzman laroche werth billingsley brazoban boxton schmoll osoria ect. all playing with an allmost non existent contracts and kent and dessens and god forbid gagne contracts come off the books.

i wouldn't be surprised if our payroll in 2007 is a little under 80 million.

so increase the payroll 20-30 million for 2006.

I think whether or not Matsui remains on the Yankees is going to be decided by business reasons, not baseball reasons. The Yankees get a lot of revenue just by having him on the team because I assume they get a sizeable chunk of TV money from Japan. And a lot of advertising in Japan.

Matsui might be the kind of player who, if he were playing in the U.S., will play for the Yankees or nobody because he perceives his stature as being too high to play for anyone else.

Matsui's former team, the Yomiuri Giants, is having a horrible year (.445), so they would be likely to give Matsui an obscenely large contract to return.

73
When he came over he only wanted to play for the Yankee's. He never considered another team and he could have signed with anyone. It is just my opinion but I'd be shocked if he even considered leaving the Yankee's. Who was the last great free agent to leave the Yankee's?
Tino Martinez does count as he was coming off of two subpar years.

Yeah, Giles at 4 years sends up a red flag. But if we don't get Giles, and we don't get Matsui and Bradley is let go then we are in for another year of Stupidesta bashing.
vr, Xei

how is lowe's VORP so low??? it doesn't make sense that lowe's VORP, in 206+ innings, is about the same as the royals' andy sisco in about 70+ innings.

78
That should be "does not".

I tend to agree with Bob. For whatever reason he only wants to be a Yankee and that might be the reason.

80 Because Lowe's run average is about 4.60.

Hideki Matsui's chances of wearing Dodger Blue next year are about as high as the DBacks making the playoffs.

The Yankees lately haven't let any free agents get away unless they were guys they just didn't want anymore. It's not like the Yankees are going to get outbid by anyone.

It does if you factor in that Lowe was horrible for four months.

57 wow, that's a lousy crop of free agents.

83Nice to see you and I agree on something Bob even if Frank Robinson was one of my favorite ballplayers.

84 it was 3 months, but who's counting :)

85
Ain't that the truth. Not a good year to have 44 million to play with. To bad we don't already have Tejada locked up. We got so screwed by the impending sale. We should have Tejada and Vlady. I believe in my heart that Depo would have signed Tejada if he had been the GM at the time he was in play.

I like Eduardo Perez, but only if Tracy is gone. Perez kills LHP, but if Tracy was the manager, he'd become the starting 1B. Bring in Perez to platoon with Choi. Torii Hunter thinks he's going to be traded. Anyone interested?

86

I don't disagree with everybody do I? :-)

Ok, so who are the good free agents in 2007! :) vr, Xei

so VORP doesn't take into account lousy defense? i looked over at the hardball times for some other pitching stats and i'm not exactly sure what to make of all of this...

lowe:
RA - 4.57
ERA - 3.57
FIP - 4.12 (so lowe has actually been HELPED by his defense, it seems. but what about all those unearned runs??)
xFIP - 3.42(not sure what to make of that, it's supposed to be a predictive stat)
ERA+ - 124

stats are from:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=30&sortBy=diffFipEra&thenBy=fip&leagueAbbr=NL&qualified=Yes
glossary:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

92 - Just because a team might make an error that causes a boatload of unearned runs doesn't mean they aren't also making a number of good plays to prevent you from allowing a boatload of earned runs.

Something like that.

I haven't seen the evidence yet that says the defense behind Lowe has been lousy. The high number of unearned runs might just mean he pitches worse after an error than other pitchers do.

His xERA is 3.15. From a roto perspective I target pitchers whose xERA is lower then the current ERA because over time I expect the two numbers to converge. Thus you can find bargains from pitchers whose xERA is much lower then the current ERA.

Expected Earned Run Average (xERA)

Purpose & Meaning
xERA represents the expected ERA of the pitcher based on a normal distribution of his statistics. It is not influenced by situation-dependent factors. xERA erases the inequity between starters' and relievers' ERAs, eliminating the effect that a pitcher's success or failure has on another pitcher's ERA. Similar to other gauges, the accuracy of this formula changes with the level of competition from one season to the next. The normalizing factor allows us to better approximate a pitcher's actual ERA. This value is usually somewhere around 2.77 and varies by league and year.

Benchmarks
In general, XERAs should approximate a pitcher's ERA fairly closely. However, those pitchers who have large variances between the two gauges are candidates for further analysis. (See ERA Variance.)

Formula
by Gill and Reeve: (.575 H/9 ) + (.94 HR/9 ) + (.28 BB/9 ) - (.01 K/9 ) - Normalizing Factor

Notes
There is some confusion about how to interpret a pitcher's projected XERA as compared to his projected ERA. The projected XERA is probably the more accurate gauge for looking ahead, as it is constructed solely from skills-related variables and situationally independent events. The projected ERA is constructed from a trend analysis of historical ERAs, with some adjustments for leading indicators. The reason we include this at all is that pitching performance is also impacted by situationally dependent events — bullpen support, park factors, etc. — which are reflected better by ERA. The optimal approach, however, is to use both gauges as a range of the expectation for the coming year.

I'll be heading out early today and will miss tonight's game so I can leave you with this cheery post.

Random Dodger Game Callback

September 16, 1962

Rookie Nelson Matthews hit a grand slam in the first inning and Bob Buhl threw a 5-0 shutout as the Chicago Cubs snapped the Dodgers' seven-game winning streak before a crowd of 19,251 at Wrigley Field. The Dodgers were still 98-52 and four games ahead of the second place Giants with a magic number of nine.

Stan Williams, who had won his last six starts at Wrigley Field, did not last long this day. He gave up a leadoff single to Bill Landrum and Ken Hubbs and Billy Williams followed with infield singles to load the bases. Ernie Banks popped out to left, but Matthews hit his first major league home run by lining a pitch into the left field seats. After Ron Santo followed with a single, manager Walter Alston pulled Williams in favor of rookie reliever Jack Smith.

Smith would give up a sacrifice fly to Billy Williams in the second, but that would be it for the Cubs on the game. Phil Ortega and Larry Sherry shut down the Cubs the rest of the way.

But it was too late for the Dodgers. Buhl beat the Dodgers for the 25th time in his career. Only one Dodger reached second base. Buhl gave up only four hits. Those four hits Buhl allowed were four more than he picked up at bat that season. Buhl had the alltime worst batting season in big league history in 1962, going 0 for 70 at the plate. In his 15-year career, Buhl won 166 games and batted .089.

The Dodgers lost one of their biggest offensive threats in the fourth inning. Shortstop Maury Wills was caught stealing in the first inning and later fouled a ball off his shin and left in the seventh. Wills would have an MVP season in 1962, setting a major league record with 104 stolen bases (and he was caught just 13 times). He batted .299 and led the NL in triples with 10. He also played in a major league record 165 games.

Wills got to play in 165 games because the Dodgers ended up the regular season tied with the Giants at 101-61 and had to play a best of three playoff. Which the Giants won in three games (more on that later) and the Dodgers finished with a record of 102-63.

Wills' stolen bases were the big story in 1962 and somehow managed to eclipse the impressive season by left fielder Tommy Davis. He led the league in batting at .346 and drove in an incredible 153 runs with 27 home runs. No National League player would have as many RBI until Sammy Sosa drove in 158 in 1998.

Right fielder Frank Howard slugged 31 home runs and drove in 119 and center fielder Willie Davis tied Wills for the lead in triples with 10. Despite playing in brand new Dodger Stadium with spacious dimensions, the Dodgers scored 842 runs, second most in the NL. No Los Angeles Dodgers team has scored as many runs.

Cy Young Award winner Don Drysdale, who was 25-9 with a 2.83 ERA and a league-leading 232 strikeouts, anchored the pitching staff. Sandy Koufax led the league in ERA at 2.54, but was limited to just 28 games because of a circulatory problem. Ed Roebuck was 10-2 in relief and Ron Perranoski was 6-6 with a 2.85 ERA in relief and led the NL with 70 appearances.

The loss this day sent the Dodgers into a slump at the worst possible time. The team would lose 10 of its last 13 regular season games, including being shut out in the last two games of the year at home against St. Louis. The Giants didn't exactly go on a tear as they went 7-6 over the same stretch.

The teams faced off in a tiebreaker that started at Candlestick Park. The Giants won easily, 8-0, as Koufax was knocked out of the game in the second and Billy Pierce pitched a shutout.

Returning to Los Angeles, just 25,321 people showed up to watch the Dodgers win a long, ugly 8-7 game over the Giants. Drysdale slogged through 5 1/3 innings and left the game down 5-0. The Dodgers scored seven times in the sixth. The Giants tied the game in the eighth, but the Dodgers got a sacrifice fly from Ron Fairly to score Wills with the winning run in the ninth. The game took 4:18 to play.

In the final game of the year, the Dodgers took a 4-2 lead in the ninth, thanks to a 2-run home run by Tommy Davis off of Juan Marichal. Then a nightmare inning that few who saw it have ever been able to erase from their minds transpired.

Reliever Ed Roebuck gave up a single to Matty Alou. Harvey Kuenn hit into a force play. Willie McCovey pinch hit for Chuck Hiller and drew a walk and Ernie Bowman ran for him. Felipe Alou then walked to load the bases. Willie Mays followed with a single off of Roebuck's glove to make it 4-3. With the crowd, and the rest of the Dodgers, clamoring for Drysdale to relieve, Alston put Stan Williams into relieve. Orlando Cepeda greeted Williams with a scoring fly ball to right to score Bowman with the tying run. Williams threw a wild pitch that moved Mays up to second, although Felipe Alou held at third. With a base open, Williams intentionally walked Ed Bailey. But Williams walked Jim Davenport to force in the go-ahead run. Ron Perranoski came in and looked to be out of the inning when Jose Pagan hit a grounder to second baseman Larry Burright. But Burright couldn't make the play and Mays scored to make it 6-4. Bob Nieman struck out to end the inning.

In the bottom of the ninth, Giants manager Alvin Dark brought in his ace starter, Pierce, to relieve. And Pierce set the Dodgers down in order to send the Giants to the World Series.

The playoff was an excruciating end for one of the best Dodger teams. 2,755,184 came to brand new Dodger Stadium to take in a game (The Dodgers went 54-29 at home, fourth best ever at home, behind the 1980, 1978, and 1991 teams). And 1,144, 063 people came to watch the Angels play their second season in Los Angeles. 1962 was the first season that the National League played a 162-game schedule. If the season had ended at 154 games, the Dodgers would have prevailed over the Giants by three games.

Thanks to the New York Times, Baseball-reference, and Retrosheet.

67 Yes. It is also fearless and stupid. :)

But I figured Tracy would be more likely to play Pena, who's supposed to be pretty good defensively IIRC, than he would Choi. I haven't checked the back of Pena's baseball card for his stats on baseball savvy or moxie, but we all know Choi is lacking in those.

FYI-Jose Cruz has been extremley lucky as a Dodger. His h% as a Dodger is 43% while his historical number is 29%.

96
The Tigers need those good young arms so I don't seem them moving Verlander or Zumaya. Now if you can figure out a way for us to get Granderson for MB I'd be all for it.

93 well, i don't know how the nuts-and-bolts of these statistics function, but lowe's extreme groundball ratio, low linedrive%, and not-very-high strikeout ratio means he puts a lot of groundballs in play, which we know by watching anyway. but that's gotta affect these stats somehow. if lowe has a lot of weak grounders that are easy to play, doesn't that artificially inflate his DER? and by virtue of the fact that his pitching IS so fielding-dependent, and that so many of his pitches are put in play, doesn't that usually mean that he will almost by necessity have a relatively high FIP compared to his ERA? i don't know the answers to these questions, i'm just putting them out there. and i still have no idea how pitcher VORP is calculated.

Long post: Considering 57 is forgetting relievers (probably on purpose), I'll post them. Not to decide whether or not to pick up Wagner, but more to find a diamond in the rough (like maybe signing Tavarez to start, character aside, just an example, a bad one)

Scott Eyre
Valerio de Los Santos
Mike Stanton
Dennys Reyes (Temp. Retired till the off-season)
Armando Almanza
Felix Heredia (Team Option)
Alan Embree
Joey Eischen
Ricardo Rincon
Scott Sauerbeck
Terry Mulholland
Mike Myers
Jason Christiansen (Team Option)
Chris Hammond
John Franco
Mike Matthews
Buddy Groom
B.J. Ryan
C.J. Nitkowski
Dan Miceli
Danny Graves (Team Option)
Byung-Hyun Kim
Grant Roberts
Mike DeJean
Ricky Bottalico
Rick White
Kyle Farnsworth
Cal Eldred
Steve Karsay
Russ Springer
Darren Dreifort (Expected to Retire)
Ryan Dempster
Julian Tavarez
Tim Worrell
Felix Rodriguez
Paul Quantrill
Tom Gordon
Mike Timlin
Scott Sullivan (Team or Player Option)
Doug Brocail
Shigetoshi Hasegawa (Vesting Option)
LaTroy Hawkins (Player Option)
Rudy Seanez
Jason Grimsley
Todd Jones
Al Reyes
Antonio Alfonseca (Vesting Option)
Brian Meadows
Chad Fox
Roberto Hernandez
Scott Williamson (Team Option)
Jay Witasick
Antonio Osuna
Jeff Nelson
Jim Mecir
Kerry Ligtenberg
Trevor Hoffman
Octavio Dotel (Rehab)
Braden Looper (Team Option)
Billy Wagner
Jose Mesa (Team Option)
Bob Wickman
Eddie Guardado (Mutual Option + Player Option)
Ugeuth Urbina
Matt Mantei

Anything look good in this group?

91
2007 Impact Free Agents:
Derrek Lee - yippee
Nick Johnson-he and JD can exchange injury stories
Aubrey Huff-versatile
Jeff Kent-I heard he's pretty good
Soriano-not at 2nd base I don't.
Melvin Mora
Julio Lugo-not impact but has become a decent SS
Bonds-
Floyd
Delucci-would our season have been different if Depo had been able to sign him. I heard we tried very hard.
Trot Nixon
Mulder
Zito
Pettite
Wolf-pitched at ECR in Woodland Hills

Julio Lugo fails the character test.

Oh, thanks, Bob. I really wanted to read a re-hash of that awful playoff game. This after Vinnie and his producers showed Bobby Thomson's home run while reminiscing about the Dodgers-Giants rivalry last night.

Bleah. Must go get lunch.

2006 FAs

http://www.mlb4u.com/0607FA.html

104
Yes, but last year's win over the Giants served as karmic payback.

Cody Ransom = Larry Burright

100
Yeah I think were already loaded in the bullpen so I didn't list them.
Gagne / Sanchez / Brazoban/ Kuo/ Dessens/ Broxton/ Wunsch/ Schmoll/ Osario

I'd rather spend the money on hitting but no one is availble to spend money on so then concentrate on trading for players with expensive contracts who are in their last year.

102
Charges were dropped.

After reading the bit in the LA Times a few days ago about what actually happened with MB and his wife I have no problem with MB coming back to the Dodgers.

Yes, the charges were dropped against Lugo, but the "character test" is not something that is adjudicated by the rule of law. It follows the rule of public opinion. Which tends to be not the most forgiving.

Well off to beautiful Westlake Vilage, where the home prices are probably at a level where if I won the lottery, I could buy a fixer-upper.

I think Oaks Christian will win by at least 40 tonight.

San Antonio is affordable and people actually go to high school football games in Texas.

107 I'm surprised by the lack of discussion on the subject. But, am I vindicated on my original devil's advocate position that there was enough uncertainty about what happened between Bradley and his wife to keep us from convicting him? Not to say, "I told you so." ;-)

111 There is a big difference between "we want Milton Bradley around" and "Frank McCourt wants Milton Bradley around"

I just figured I missed the day it was discussed. After reading the story I felt sorry for him. I am thankfull that a shrieking wife is not something I've ever had to deal with.

111 - Speaking for myself, I didn't convict Bradley, I pointed out that the domestic abuse allegations, if true, added a whole new dimension to a troubling player that went beyond what I was interested in dealing with.

But beyond that, I'm not sure why people thinks this week's news exonerates Bradley. One of the call accounts specifically indicates that he choked his wife for some duration. That goes beyond a man defending himself against a woman.

Again, I'm not saying he's guilty - it's just one piece of testimony - but this is still an open issue.

Plaschke is big on sob stories and 2nd chances. You'd think he'd be in MB's corner on this.

He was reaching with his story this morning. I don't think he got the normal numbers of tears he strives for.

114 "if true". but there is almost no way of determining that.

For some reason, the title of today's thread reminds me of the old Spanish saying:

"With patience and saliva, an elephant can an ant."

:)

116 - Sure there is. But it might not get that far.

114
It did not exonerate MB but it showed what he was dealing with and how he was trying to deal with it. He did not succeed but it shed some light on the situation. I dont' think it is any coincidence that he blew up this summer considering what was transpiring at home. A man trying to curb his anger having to deal with his inury, his wife, and Jeff Kent nudging him just couldn't handle it. Should that end his Dodger career? Maybe for some but not for me.

Totally unrelated good news:

Youppi is back in professional sports!

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=2163734

For some reason, this cheers me way up.

109. Have fun at the Oaks Christian game Bob. Yes, house prices are pretty insane there. But you could be neighbors with Mike Scoscia if you lived there and exchange recipies and smallball talk. vr, Xei

100- Scott Eyre, Mike DeJean, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Williamson

122 Have the Yankees and Red Sox taught you nothing?

Especially, why Mike DeJean?

120 - Well, yippee for Youppi, I guess.

I'd really be excited to see Ted Gianoulas back.

111 - the elbow to the throat and her puking as a result isn't a problem? He's exonerated from that? not in my book.

- Giannoulas. Note to self: Google for Greek names...

122
Yikes- I understand Eyre but Dejean is no upgrade unless he was to pitch for the Royals. Willamson has had how many arm injuries? Farnsworth is enjoying his time as a closer and will expect a closer job and money. As a setup man he would have been usefull.

111
We have different books. I understand your point and would normally agree I think this case had shades of grey.JMO

125. It's he said / she said. He wasn't arrested. She wasn't arrested. It sounds like both of them have some serious issues, and just from a People's Court point of view they both deserve to be arrested. Keep in mind that women can be husband beaters too.
vr, Xei

On one of the calls the police said he would have been arrested if he were present.

128 and 129 - I can see both of your points of view and can even understand people saying let's bring him back. Sounds from the report like they both have issues. I just have no respect for anyone who would get physical with their wife for any reason and wouldn't shed a tear if he were gone next year.

Mike DeWhat?

132 Mike DeDenim

129 - I'm really not in the mood to have this discussion, I guess.

Sorry if this has already been covered, but I've been away. From Rotoworld:

The Pirates are reportedly interested in hiring Jim Tracy to manage the team next year.

He almost got the job in 2000 and an ''out'' in his contract is going to give him some leverage with the Dodgers this winter.

134. Seen any good movies lately? :) vr, Xei

Does JD Drew still have leverage?

:)

135. They can have him. I also heard that Jim Leyland is interested in the job too. MGF is that Depo put the "out clause" in the contract for a reason, and it wasn't to give Tracy leverage, it was to give him a "way out". vr, Xei

Why does everyone want the Pittsburgh job? Macha allegedly wants it too.

Answer: Rotoworld is making stuff up.

127- I'd only want those guys if we could get them cheap. Farnsworth- if Depo wants to spend a lot of money on one reliever (which I'm not in favor of). Why do I want Dejean? Extreme ground ball pitcher, pretty decent K/9, does not give up HRs. Scott Williamson, when healthy, is one of the best relievers in baseball. He has great stuff, but I haven't seen him since his last arm injury. I would give him a contract with a low base salary with a lot incentives.

I forgot to add Rudy Seanez. If we could get him for $1 million he'd be a great pickup. He's very good when healthy.

Extreme ground ball pitcher, pretty decent K/9, does not give up HRs.

The Lowe Formula. Gack.

140-
Macha is from Pittsburg, which is the biggest reason he would leave the A's, plus Beane would have no problem replacing him. I think there has been rumblings for awhile about making Washington manager. Leyland wants a job anywhere and he has coached the Pirates before. Who knows if Tracy wants to go there but his relationship with DePo is strained I bet and hopefully they decide to part ways.

140 Rotoworld isn't making it up

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05259/572674.stm

If Macha leaves, then the Dodgers probably have no chance at Washington. Guess we have to go after Orel, or something...

Ah, so Richard Scaife is making it up. The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy continues unabated.

But if Tracy gets the job in Pittsburgh that means Macha stays with Oakland and we'd have a shot at Washington if we wanted him. If Depo really wanted him wouldn't he have just not signed Tracy and signed Washington last winter?

Anyone know what's up with the Suns game? MiLB.com won't give me audio or video for West Tenn or the Suns, and there is still no lineup/boxscore, despite the scheduled start of 10 minutes ago

I really think DePo kept Tracy because he just came off a playoff season and he knew that he was going to change the team so much that he had to keep the manager around. He knew Tracy's views on baseball, which is why negotiations were so tough. DePo wanted to make sure he could get rid of him and plus he probably does not believe in paying managers a lot of money.

147 DePo couldn't fire a manager who had just taken the team to the division title. Now that Tracy has botched the job, the landscape has changed.

This actually raises my hopes that Tracy will opt out. Just as DePo must hate having a manager who fights his philosophy, Tracy must feel the same about his GM. And signing on with Pittsburgh would put him in charge of a team solidly in his flat-earth camp.

Hard to type with my fingers crossed like this.

150 - I really think this is the likely scenario, especially if what Plaschke wrote this week is true - that Tracy's out clause must be exercised within a week of the season's end.

One year of job security isn't going to be worth much to Tracy when other places will probably offer him more years, dollars and power.

I can think of only two things that would keep Tracy in Los Angeles under DePodesta: 1) he values the cocoon of warmth and support provided him by the local media, or 2) Steve's dark theory is right, and DePodesta really does love Tracy's work and will bend to his wishes.

I think the Dodgers will have a new manager next year, that the press will go nuts about it, and that six months later, Tracy will, like Alex Cora, not hardly be missed.

MiLB.com has finally given the line up, as well as the first inning in the boxscore. It's the generic DAWLLMGR line up, with Juarez pitching. Abreu had a hit, as did 2 Diamond Jaxx players, but no scoring

151 From your keyboard to McCourt's eyes....

I don't think a potential baseball manager walks this Earth who can or will satisfy the saber-minded fan. That part of the baseball hierarchy is the last place to feel the effects of this change in perspective. If there are 25 prospective replacements for Jim Tracy, my guess is 25 of them cheer for Joe Morgan when he says he doesn't believe a computer can tell him anything more than what he sees with his own two eyes. The managers' fraternity are the last of the breed, the last of the cowboys in an SUV world.

We won't miss Jim Tracy, like Jon says; but we also won't be thrilled with his replacement.

Is it really "leverage" to say "Sign me to a million-dollar contract or I'll go to Pittsburgh?"

I just got an idea, probably crazy, and I doubt it will happen, but I want to know what others think. Would we be able to get Boof Bonser from the Twins? He "destroyed" the PCL, is MLB ready, moreso than our pitchers anyways, it would piss off the Giants, the Twins have Baker, Liriano, Santana, Radke, and Silva, and he just has one heck of a nickname. And we have excess 2Bs, the Twins' biggest need for the most part. We don't need Young, Aybar, AND Perez next year, giving one up for something we do need isn't much of a loss, especially with Kent. He's 24 in October, his buggest drawback (although Perez is 2 years older, and Young is about 8 months younger). He'd also serve as insurance if TINSTAAPP hits some of our prospects (although it wouldn't be very good if he gets it)

"Destroyed" means 168 Ks (to lead the PCL) and a 3.99 ERA. Obviously not the best of numbers, but this is the PCL. He had 9.43 K/9 and a 3/1 K/BB ratio

Am I crazy? Does this make any sense? Would we rather haord our 2B? The 2B market is literally Grudzielanek, Graffanino, and...not much else. We may be able to get more for a member of the aforementioned trio

The Suns have taken a lead on a Ruggiano single, Juarez bunt, and Donavon single. 1-0 Suns in the 3rd inning

154 As much as I'd like to think otherwise, I'm afraid you're right on the money.

151 Words cannot express how much I want you to be right on that prediction.

156 it would be ironic since the original name of the Giants' blog "The McCovey Chronicles" was "Waiting for Boof."

Is it possible, though, that the managers of the world are just responding to what the marketplace wants? Until recently, that meant JT's old-school approach, but now there's a market for a different way, and there must be managers somewhere who have noticed. (I confess, I can't think of ONE.)

154, 158 - Why can't we just find the laziest manager of all time, a guy who will gladly let DePo make his lineups and call in his substitutions (or provide an index card which outlines exactly what to do in any situation) while he drinks from a flask for nine innings?

Come on, this is America, are people like this really that hard to find?

162 From Buntermaker to Buttermaker?

162 -- Well, I don't know, Icaros. Are you willing to live in the locker room too? :)

162 I think you are totally dismissing the interpersonal aspect of managing...and I know you are not totally serious. I think a manager needs to have the respect of the players and maintain harmony in the dugout, as much as humanly possible. Heck, if those things weren't important, a vast majority of the members here can be a successful manager, as long as he is heeding Depo's commmands.

165 I think you're totally dismissing the power of alcohol in maintaining dugout harmony :-)

Nolasco is no match for the Suns. Martin singles, followed by a Guzman round tripper.
3-1 Suns

164 I've got work for you this offseason as well, Steve. On the back wall of the home dugout at Dodger Stadium, you will be comissioned to paint a mural which reads:

"No Bunting. Ever."

I know this name has come up before, but it's possible to find "Larry Dierker" and "sabermetrics" in the same sentence. And he has actually managed teams to victory. On the other hand, he quit the Astros because modern day players are hard to manage, if I'm remembering right. So Plaschke, after the first losing streak, would blame the incendiary move of putting Dierker in the same clubhouse as Kent and Bradley...

(Although I doubt MB will be back.)

161-
Larry Dierker has said he accepts some sabremetric beliefs according to Rob Neyer and mentioned here before. I think we just need a manager that understands what approach works best for this team. Torre is a good example. His early teams bunted and manufactured runs. But with the mashers he has now they are patient and wait for their pitch and do not waste outs. Simply need a manager that understands what kind of team he has. Tracy does not adjust his philsophies to his players.

Orel Hershiser can be manager in charge of carrying out DePodesta's theorems, and Kirk Gibson can be manager in charge of beating the snot out of clubhouse troublemakers.

LA Times happy.
So Cal radio happy.
Tommy Lasorda happy.
Dodger Thoughts happy.
Eric Karros probably still unhappy.

171 What the hell does Eric Karros want, anyway? Does he want to manage the team? Does he want to be on the Dodger broadcast team? Here he is, floating around, making these obnoxious noises like a flatulent male model. What's he after?

P.S. I like the Orel/Kirk tandem idea.

William Juarez is doing his best Lowe impression hoping to be taken in the Rule V. He's now pitched 13 scoreless innings in the playoffs, and hasn't really showed any signs of slowing

168 -- I will include cherubs that look like Earl Weaver.

I think Karros really wants to still be a Major League first baseman, and he can't deal with reality.

174 Perfect.

Um, here's a probably embarrasing question: Does "sabremetrics" mean anything more than trying to apply the most reliable statistcal measures available to predicting baseball performance? I know the word is built off an acronym, but does it mean a particular take on what statistics are best, or just the idea that statistics are valid and matter, and figuring out the most reliable statistics is important? (Thus, is OBP inherently a "sabremetric" statistic, or is it just one that gets used a lot by, er, sabremetricians, because it is useful but would junked if/when something better comes along?)

Now he hits "submit" and wonders if this makes sense.

Classic Jim Tracy talking about DJ Houlton on Dodgers.com:

"Is he a stone-cold lock to make the starting rotation in 2006? No. Is he a candidate? Sure he is."

No Myrow surprisingly, but Tracy now thinks Edwards is as good as yesterday

Aybar 3B
Choi 1B
Robles SS
Kent 2B
Cruz RF
Edwards LF
Navarro C
Werth CF
Penny P

Winn CF
Vizquel SS
Feliz 3B
Bonds LF
Durham 2B
Niekro 1B
Ellison RF
Matheny C
Tomko P

Icaros, I busted out laughing last night when I watched the first few minutes of `Bullworth' (rated: two thumbs in your eyes) and saw the score was done by...Ennio Morricone.

As much as we would wish to see Tracy working full time next year on the banks of the Allegheny River,you really can't discount how the McCourts seem to be running scared of the Times, and Plaschke.

Why else would McCourt give him a one on one "mea culpa" interview a few weeks ago, and an exclusive on that manufactured "heart tugging" story of the old timer who gets to run around the bases at Dodger Stadium sixty years after not signing with Brooklyn?

IMO, the worst collateral damage from this season has been to DePo, due to the public perception of the poor performances of players who failed to deliver (Valentin,Erickson),and the unfulfilled promise of those he retained(Werth,O.Perez,Choi).

Another year like this one, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Frank and Jaime throw DePo overboard.

BTW, did any of the Suns fans here catch Plaschke's shot at their favorite prospects ("The Dodgers will be fortunate if two of the five make an impact")?

Juarez finally allowed a run. 3-1 Suns.

181 Haven't seen it. Is there a sunset duel in Bullworth?

Donovan hits a triple to give the Suns a 4-1 lead in the 7th inning.

Juarez is gone (PH), thus finishing the playoffs allowing 1 run in 15 IP, assuming he doesn't pitch in relief. Without knowing who will be on the 40 man in November, I still think Juarez probably has the best shot to be taken in the Rule V, despite somewhat mediocre stats. I can't see the people better than him who are young (under 25), not making the 40 man roster.

184 - No, but if I remember right, the hero does get shot in the end. It was such a relief...

Can someone explain to me why it is that Hiram Bocachica is starting in RF for Oakland tonight?

177 You're absolutely right. It is all about using the most reliable information available to make decisions.

188 Because his name means, "mouth small" in Spanish.

I find it funny that Choi is in the 2 hole again. Sure he has done well in that spot, but I don't think there is anything magical about it. It is just a coincidence. But Tracy seems to think it means something. Of course, he is about two months late in realizing this statistical gem, as flawed as it is.

The Suns manager just let Martin bunt with men on 1st and 2nd. Guzman is being IBB'd...

192 Sounds familiar.

Ruggiano had a 3-0 count but then struck out with the bases loaded.

Guzman is down! Guzman is down!

The SS just took out Guzman at 2nd, he's lying hurt on the ground. Scored a run, but this could be very bad

Seems like Guzman is staying in, so he just got knocked down I guess

Luckily he is alright. 6-1 Suns.

Curses. I'm getting Southern California HS football on FSNW2 instead of Dodgers-Giants.

I think we need a FSNHi channel.

Donavon triples again, 8-1 Suns

3 more runs score on a Todd Donovan triple. 9-1 Suns.

201 Is worng the score is actually 8-1 Suns.

177,189 It's not just reliable statistical information. From what I have seen (and I'm not a statistician by any means), there are ways to process that information to reveal previous unknown tendencies and/or to determine the true contribution of:

1) An individual player
2) A particular strategy
3) A particular tactic

by filtering out the "luck" effects of (among other things):

1) Differences in ballparks
2) Differences in strength of schedule
3) The actions of other players that are beyond the control of the player being analyzed.

Evening girls. I'm hoping for a fun game tonight. You'll have to forgive me tonight if I throw in a few "derns" and "Igods", I'm re-reading Lonesome Dove, a great book.

204 - Lonesome Dove is my favorite work of fiction. Amazingly, the TV miniseries is every bit as good as the book. If you already haven't, I suggest you rent/buy it.

Link, the game doesn't start until 7:40 PDT.

205 I think the mini-series did as good a job as it could, but still not as good as the book. Robert Urich as Jake particularly galled me.

well the game has started and what do you know.. aybar with another hit.

thats 7 straight games with a hit now...

207- But you have to admit that Urich cruising the 70's Las Vegas strip in his T-Bird as Dan Tanna in "Vegas' was pretty cool.

Miller pitches some scoreless innings, Suns win 8-1

Not a good way for Penny to start

204 - 205 Oh, man, LD fans. You have, have to read the other books in the series! Dead Mans Walk, Streets of Laredo, and Comanche Moon (which I'm about to read for the third time). Incredibly, they're as good or better than LD.
Just watched the second half of the miniseries of Dead Man's Walk last night, and it was okay; Last week I watched Streets of Laredo, and it was terrific. James Garner really (to my surprise) pulled of Woodrow Call well.

Seriously, read all the books; you'll never regret it.

Sad to say, I'm not getting the game on DTV although I got last nights. There seems to be no difference in the channels broadcasting each night. Anyone know what gives? Anyway-to game day I go.

Dern. I liked Ellison better when he was flubbing balls in left field.

Robert Urich as Jake particularly galled me.

I did like the scene where he was hung, and the look he gave just before the horse got slapped.

206

It started around 7:10. But it's on UPN Channel 13 in Los Angeles, not FSW2.

Now I know I've been working too much. I'm hallucinating Choi in the line-up as a starter.

(rubs eyes)

He's still there. Did someone push JT in front of a train?

Jim, I've read them all, in fact, I've read almost all of McMurtry's books. Check out "Leaving Cheyenne", his second novel. Makes me cry every time I read it.

Dern that Bonds.

212 - Game starts at 7:40. Link, I forgot, the game is on channel 13, not FSW2.

Ugh, he finally hit one. Wasn't much of a homer though. Penny needs to move to the right side of the rubber, it seems to help with the homers ;)

So who had Penny in the "Give Up A Meatball To Bonds" Contest?

brad penny has terrible stuff today. it seems he cant get loose with the cold.

Oh, shoot, the game didn't start at 7:40. Sorry.

Penny's fastball is 88? I'd warm up Jackson.

I saw the Lonesome Dove miniseries when I was a kid and loved it. Later, I tried the first book and never really got into it. Ended up not finishing, which is extremely rare for me because I read so fast. Maybe I should give it another try sometime. (looks at to-read bookcase) Not anytime soon, though.

217 - Read it, Marty. Haven't read any of his non Western books, though.

Give it a shot Jim. "Loving Molly" and "Terms of Endearment" are good. Plus, The "Last Picture Show" and "Texasville" are worthy too.

Will Penny get back to the way he was 2 years ago?

And wasn't there a fictional character named "Will" Penny somewhere.

why does tracy continue to play werth but not choi?

What's the difference between Correia and Kinney other than one has a chance to be a major league pitcher and the other doesn't?

Also, "Horseman pass by", his first novel, became "Hud" in the movies. One of my favorite movies.

225 - Try Comanche Moon, Christina. Buffalo Hump was one scary dude.

BTW, Marty, Buffalo Hump was based on a real character. Points if you know his real name.

Tomko is either doing a great job pitching on the corners, or the ump is calling a lot of balls strikes. He's hittable, but as long as the corner pitches are strikes, he's going to somehow get more strike outs (he has 5?!)

Wow it's dead in here. I guess people are out and about on Friday night?

Or is it because the Suns Internet video feed wasn't available?

Buffalo Hump was one scary dude.

Buffalo Hump was based on a real character. Points if you know his real name.

I know! Wally George!

I always thought "Buffalo Hump" was the real name.

From Google:

Buffalo Hump was war chief of the Penateka band of the Comanches. After the Council House fight of 1840 (See our Comanche page) he led the Comanches, mostly his band, to get revenge.

234 The Diamond Jaxx feed was though. Man was it terrible. The only camera is behind a net, which gets in the way of anything hit to the OF

okay maybe now that penny is mad, he will pitch better.

There was a Will Penny in a Western novel by Luke Short (itself a psuedonym for Frederick Glidden), but the author was so prolific I can't think of the title.

I thought for a minute it was "Sugarfoot," but IMDB tells me that was Will Hutchins.

Steve is close, inasmuch as Wally came off as resembling the appendage Buffalo Hump was actually named after:

http://tinyurl.com/eyu6j

I hope Xei Frank is not too upset about this thread tonight 8^)

aybar with another seeing eye single...

Willy makes a baserunning mistake. Jason Phillips will replace Aybar at 3B.

243 But Tracy put him in that position to begin with by using the hit n run. OF course, I wouldn't be surprised if you were right

Penny wasn't paying any attention to Vizquel

Please tell me Nick Swisher is either hurt or dead.

Bonds will bat with the bases empty

Why would you try to steal a base with Bonds coming up?

246 Last night the trainer was checking Swisher over. I haven't heard anything beyond that, but my guess is that the A's decided not to take a chance and that he should rest for a night.

Kent gets ahead in the count and then starts swinging at pitchers pitches? Why?

249 So we can assume that he's not dead...

What if his wife was having a child?

That was a worthless inning. I still can't tell if Tomko is just lucky, or is pitching well. I'd guess the former rather than the latter

Nice at bat Edwards...

249 -- So assume Swisher is hurt. Is everyone else in the organization, including Billy Beane, hurt and/or dead?

Gu