It sounds like you had a peaceful Thanksgiving. One might say the Lord works in mysterious ways.

I spent my Thanksgiving surrounded by Giants' fans, including two teenage nieces and a nephew whose entire wardrobes apparently consist of Giants' gear. Usually we have the white-persons' equivalent of the dozens about our teams (there are a couple other Dodger fans in the family besides me), but this year, I felt so disarmed, I barely said anything other than wearing an old Dodger cap.

Between that and almost completely avoiding political topics, everyone managed to get along. I was secretly hoping I'd come home and find out Colletti had made a bang-up choice for manager, someone who'd restore a little pride. The name Grady Little then appeared on my screen. Not quite what I had in mind.

Yeah, one thing I share with my family is our love of the Dodgers. Everyone is confused over the firing of DePodesta. At least the Dodgers didn't go after Thome!

Same for me and my brother. We're now equally disgusted by the "direction" of the Dodgers. He did, however, at the time of the firing think that that might fix things. Funny thing is, my brother's quite a bit younger than me so his version of the good old days is basically the Karros era.

On Thanksiving, I got a new newphew, a 6-year old from Guatemala, who likely doesn't know what baseball is. I'm sure his older brother will fill him in. He probably doesn't know what American football is either.

However, he has been sledding already in the U.S. (They live in Michigan.)

Meanwhile, I made a CD of baseball related songs and stuff for the son of a friend (actually my girlfriend's friend). He's a high school senior and a big baseball fan (albeit of the Cubs). His favorite part of the CD was a recording of Abbott and Costello doing "Who's on First?"

He had never heard it before and he loved it.

Sometimes in this world, if you realize you can reach just one kid and make a difference, there is a great sense of satisfaction.

Jon, I was in the same situation with my dad until we sat down one time and went over all of DePodesta's moves one by one, and he realized there was scarcely a transaction he could say turned out badly. (Dave Roberts and that's about it.) Of course, DePo got fired a month or so later, so...

Besides me, my brother and mother were the only baseball fans in my family. They are both gone, and I suspect that neither would have been Depo fans. My two remaining sisters don't follow the Dodgers much even though they both love going to games. Both of them have mentioned though that since the team was so bad this year, it must be the GM's fault and they are glad Depo is gone.

I feel I did a great job of re-directing my Mom's anger from DePo to the McCourts. As G-Dub said, Mission Accomplished.

My mom is a die hard fan. Always has been. She never lets me forget that she was at Sandy's perfect game and that she had a huge crush on him.

So the rumor mill makes it sound like Ned is looking for a leadoff hitter..

I assume this would be a "leadoff hitter" of the 1960s or 1970s model. Or in modern day terms, Jose Reyes.

Not a leadoff hitter who does stuff like get on base a lot like Brian Downing or Derek Jeter.

4 Bob Timmermann said: Sometimes in this world, if you realize you can reach just one kid and make a difference, there is a great sense of satisfaction.

As a professor, I can aver that truer words were never spoken (typed). And I'd agree that baseball is at least as worthy a subject of such enlightenment as whatever one is supposed to be teaching, and "Who's on First" a terrific entering wedge. Bravo, Bob T!

On baseball caps:

My brother-in-law, in all other ways a great guy, changed planes in San Francisco once on his way back from Vegas. He realized he needed a souvenir for me, so he stopped in an airport shop and bought me a Giants cap.

My CD also included DeWolfe Hopper's classic rendering of "Casey at the Bat" full of Edwardian era histrionics (or were they Victorian era) and Garrison Keillor's version of the poem, told from the perspective of the opponents, the Dustburg Nine.

Guys the Dodgers are interested in (according to various rumors)
Matt Morris- would be ok because he has an awesome beard.
Jeff Weaver- no thanks, he's average at best and Boras is his agent (he's going to be overpaid)
Kevin Millwood- no, Boras factor
Shawn Estes- NO! We don't need the left handed Russ Ortiz
Giovanni Carrara- no, and he probably won't come back now that Tracy's gone
Toby Hall- hopefully not
Paul Bako- would be a fine backup for Navarro
Paul Konerko- no is going to be overpaid
Rafael Furcal- ok, but not for more than 4 years, probably won't come here
Nomar Garciaparra- yes, probably won't command more than a 2 year contract
Royce Clayton- YES! Steve's favorite player.
Bill Mueller- would be ok, but I'd rather go with Aybar
Joe Randa- no
Brian Giles- YES! Would be the best pickup for the Dodgers on the FA market.
Jacque Jones- I'd rather see him go to the Giants
Reggie Sanders- too old for a 2 year deal
Joey Gathright- fine if we don't have to give up a top prospect
Juan Pierre- absolutely not

9
GoBears - Where and what do you teach?

Where would Jacque Jones play on the Giants? They have an outfield of Bonds-Winn-Alou. And you can write those three names in the lineup EVERY DAY.

Bob, what a great CD. The Garrison Keillor clip is great, as are the other two. I would highly recommend a commercial CD if you can find it, Play Ball by Erich Kunzel and the Cincinnati Pops. Great music from baseball movies along with Abbott and Costello and a great rendition of Casey at the Bat by James Earl Jones plus the long version of Take Me Out to the Ballgame. It was released on CD quite a few years ago by Telarc, not sure if it is still available.

By the way, all my best to the new member of your family.

Stan from Tacoma

As sign loiaza
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/11/28/SPG00FV99A3.DTL

zito possibly will be traded...

Matt Morris- would be ok because he has an awesome beard.

damn right. beards are awesome. everyone needs one.

We could trade Billingsly for Zito, then in 6 years, trade _____ for Billingsly just before his contract year. Yes!

Raul Mondesi says he wants to make a comeback. I think he could replace Bradley.

id probably give a good amount for zito if we could get a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension.

oh, and trade odalis to the highest bidder.

Since when did Mondesi become so hard working? Gaining political power in his hometown (no doubt to attempt to decriminalize driving under the influence) while writing the final chapters of his baseball career.

20 - Agreed. A rental doesn't make sense, but if you could lock up an injury free pitcher like that for 4 years, that would be solid. Wonder if it could be done w/o giving up Billingsly or Guzman.

5
That sure is an optimistic recount of the Depo Dodger era.

My dad is an anomaly to me. He's a graduate of West Point and MIT and could do cartwheels with a slide ruler but he's never embraced sabermetrics no matter how many books I've pushed his way.

Just passing this along . . .

Will Carroll has posted a new article today on Baseball Prospectus regarding hot stove rumors ...
- Mike Piazza has very few choices on where to play in 2006, with Oakland as a possibility to catch & DH. Carroll says there is a chance Piazza will wind up with -- the Dodgers!
- Carroll expects the Orioles to extend an offer to Garciaparra.
- And, finally, Brian Giles has turned down St. Louis' initial offer, with the Blue Jays going after him, but he may eventually wind up back in Cleveland.

Jon - I look forward to you updating your "The Netherworld (Nate Silver)" analysis at the end of this off-season.
It should be interesting to see which direction the Dodgers have taken for 2006 based on Colletti's moves (or non-moves).

now the A's need a big bat, my 3 way trade for zito and huff going to the A's should be in the works!

Piazza as backup C/platoon 1B wouldn't be such a bad thing, I suppose, as long as he is willing to be paid like a backup C/platoon 1B. Which he probably isn't.

On the baseball songs front, I'd recommend seeking out a copy of Tom Russell's "The Kid From Spavinaw," on the album Modern Art. Possibly the best baseball song ever, IMO.

Gaining political power in his hometown (no doubt to attempt to decriminalize driving under the influence)
LOL! Expect Guillermo Mota to be very supportive of Mondi.

nate- I don't even have a beard, but Morris' is awesome. Roy Halladay has a cool one too.

Since Billy Beane saw fit to give Loaiza 21/3 what would the board consensus have been if Colletti had done the same? I'm asking this because when Colletti signs Morris and everyone cries about it I just want to make sure he gets the same treatment as Beane gets for the Loaiza signing.

I'm an A's fan too and I don't like the Loaiza signing. He's 34 years old and has only had 2 above average seasons. He is durable, but he's not with $7 million per year. Morris on the other hand, has a cool beard, so I'd applaud Ned if he landed Morris.

i dont like the loaiza deal. Hes been terribly inconsistent from year to year and will be 37 by the end of the deal.

But, oakland stadium is a pitchers park and going from RFK to oakland isnt going to be that big of a difference.

i would rather give morris 3yrs 21 mil than loaiza 3yrs 21 mil.

id rather trade for zito than pay morris though.

but if loaiza shows up to ST with a beast of a beard, i might have to change my stance.

agree, but he's still not worth $7 million per year

mors signings to report!

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5117698

The Mets have landed coveted closer Billy Wagner in a four-year deal worth $43 million.

The deal could be worth as much as $50 million as it includes a fifth-year option for the Mets worth $10 million. But if the team declines the option, Wagner gets a $3 million buyout which is considered part of the original $43 million deal.

30 - If Colletti had made this deal, I would commend the decision to address the major weakness of the ballclub with a decent option at a decent contract. I wouldn't be crazy about it, but $7M/year buys you league average innings these days.

32
Nate - Are you old enough to remember Jeff Beardon, er, Reardon?

question... isnt wagner like 35?

34 - There goes our LOOGY option.

Can we trade owners with the Mets? It must be awfully hard for Minaya to operate under such strenuous working conditions.

Nate- I found the perfect FA for the Dodgers
http://tinyurl.com/782tn

elarton deserves a one yr deal just for his facial hair.

when wagner blows his arm out in the middle of the season, we will be able to trade gagne to the mets for milledge and heilman.

I changed my mind. Elarton gave up 32 home runs in about 180 innings. I guess we can hire him as the pitching coach.

Interesting topic: family and opinions about your team...

Initially, my brother threw stones at McCourt for him being 'cheap', while I was reserved in judgment since I felt that hiring DePodesta was a terrific move and that money saved (or earned) here and there could assure the payroll that DePodesta would need to create a winner, perpetually.

I haven't discussed the DePodesta firing with him.

My father, on the other hand, heard my opinion right away and seemed willing to listen to my viewpoint. I don't think he ever held high opinions of McCourt.

7- My dad was at Koufax's perfect game, too... on his birthday, no less. He gets to celebrate his birthday and Sandy's milestone the same day every year. What a great memory that must be: 'one year, my birthday was spent at the ballpark, and I saw Sandy Koufax pitch his fourth and final no hitter, a perfect game.'

Buyer beware on Matt Morris.

Surgeries on his elbow and shoulder turned him into a 70-pitch guy whose talents were embellished by the great supporting cast in STL.

Buyer beware on Furcal. He has OBP problems. He has drinking problems. The market will grossly inflate his value.

The better route is to shop Gagne and Brazo on the hyper-inflated closer market. Try to get bona fide young starting pitchers, even if they're in Double-A or Triple-A (here's where scouting/evaluating is so crucial and difficult). Milledge is worth a gander, too. Properly leveraged in this market, a Gagne or a Brazo could give big returns, even if means packaging a prospect with them.

35 On the surface the contract does seem pretty pricey, but I think the market for pitching is going to be even crazier this year.

Aside from his age, Loaiza doesn't look much different than the other guys on the market. Morris hasn't been a front line type of starter in a few years. Weaver never really has been, etc.

Loaiza's deal will likely become the minimum signing salary for recognizable starting pitchers, much like Benson last year.

At this point I'd rather sign 2 swingman type players (Kim, Johnson, Moyer, Astacio, Moehler, Ponson? Brown?). Maybe Byrd or Tomko, but they might want a little more money (especially with the market being what it is). Sign them, but warn them they must compete with the young guys if they want a rotation spot.

For whatever reason, I'd also be interested in giving Brian Anderson a minor league contract (he doesn't walk many, has a great pickoff move, and would likely be better in Dodger Stadium than Kauffman, health issues though)

#27, Thanks for the tip Eric. The song is available as well on a Diamond Cuts CD, Top of the Sixth, available through Hungry for Music. Hungry for Music is a non profit that distributes musical instruments to disadvantaged kids. Money raised throught the sale of CDs goes to the charity.

#43, your Dad is a lucky man to have that memory. I have seen one no hit game in person and it was not by Sandy. I still regret not attending the no hitter he threw in Philadelphia in 1964. I lived about 25 or so miles from Connie Mack Stadium at the time. So what if it was a school night. I didn't miss too many games he pitched in Philadelphia from 62-66, but I did miss that one.

Stan from Tacoma

I think that we will be paying a premium either in $$/Closers/minor leagers, to get any talented players. Right now, we are baseball's version of 52-pickup. There was a time, not too long ago when getting a GM or Manager would have been a cinch.

Seriously, if you were a player right now, would you rather be a Dodger or Angel?

There has to be more to the Loaiza deal. I really can't see why Beane would bring in Loaiza, who is at best a fifth starter on Oakland, when he already has eight starters.

With Wagner going to the Mets, I'd shop Gagne or Brazo to the Phillies, Indians and Braves.

Either is better as a closer than Tom Gordon.

That said, I'd rather barter with Omar than any of those GMs.

I doubt Gagne will have this trade value in July, but wish him well.

McLaren...Little...could the leaking of these names be about conditioning us to accept a higher profile version of the same....Fregosi?

With Wagner going to the Mets, I'd shop Gagne or Brazo to the Phillies, Indians and Braves, Orioles.

Either is better as a closer than Tom Gordon.

That said, I'd rather barter with Omar than most of those GMs.

I doubt Gagne will have this trade value in July.

Brazo's track record as a closer is pretty good, too.

What about Choi?

From Ken Gurnick's mailbag:

The most glaring Dodger need is a first baseman who can hit for average or power. Why haven't the Dodgers obtained one?
-- James B., San Bernardino, Calif.

Like Carlos Delgado (or Jim Thome), for example? The answer is at the crux of the Dodgers' current dilemma. They have immediate needs and a farm system close to satisfying those needs, but probably not by April of 2006. So, with James Loney finally showing power and possibly less than a year away as the answer at first base, and Joel Guzman playing first base in the Dominican Winter League, do you trade for Delgado, pick up the $41 million the Mets were willing to absorb, deal away two of the best prospects in the system and block Loney's or Guzman's path for the three years remaining on Delgado's contract? Or do you find a cheaper short-term band-aid solution, reallocate that $41 million to fill a handful of other holes and keep the prospects? Since Delgado and Thome were just traded -- and not to the Dodgers -- it's pretty apparent which way the Dodgers are leaning. Nonetheless, free agent Paul Konerko is still available.

Sounds like it's Fregosi's job but they want to be thorough. It pays to interview several candidates. One, you can glean valuable information on the marketplace. Two, maybe you squeeze Fregosi, get him a bit cheaper.

Gurnick's analysis is as astute as Plaschke's is not. Rather than invest heavily at 1B, the LAD could better allocate resources toward starting pitching, a durable OF bat and SS.

Guzman's best spot will be 1B or RF. You kill Loney's value if you get a Delgado/Thome/Konero.

Loney has a great glove and his bat is improving, but his trade value is slight.

Better to put Loney in Vegas with the perception that he's in your long-term plans. His trade value could go up quite a bit if he hits well at Vegas, where his suspect power should increase. And there's the outside chance that he becomes the LAD starter in 2007.

55
Again I say: what about Choi?

50, 52:

So what happened between 2:45 and 2:46 that caused you, on second thought, to withdraw your well-wishes for Eric Gagne? A sudden spasm of fervent anti-Canada feelings?

56 It does seem as if Choi's become a non-person.

Maybe this is Gurnick trying to do Choi a favor. Talk down the idea of trying to trade for a high-priced first baseman, without actually talking up Choi. That way, those who are out to get Choi don't have anything to latch onto. The decision is seen as helping Loney, who the baseballklatura likes, rather than Choi, who is seen as DePodesta's evil spawn.

58
I like that strategy. Maybe Hee can sneak his way into the lineup this year and prove his doubters wrong.

55 - have you seen Guzman playing 1B this winter? I watched the last game on ESPN Deportes and was surprised how horrible he looked trying to dig throws out of the dirt. Maybe he'll learn the position, but he sure looks awkward right now.

Gurnick's telling like it is.

Choi's ragged times are tough to endure. For long stretches, he shows zero ability to make adjustments at the plate.

Defensively, he's a liability.

Has Choi been given a meaningful opportunity to endure growing pains, mature and acclimate at the major league level?

Very debatable. Ideally, he'd get 500 abs with a last-place club.

Still, he showed little improvement in 2006. If anything, he's regressed since his Marlin days.

That Depo got him is irrelevant. Of some relevance is how he performed in 2005.

His poor footwork at 1B was surprise. No one expected Wes Parker, but he was brutal.

He'll be 27 in March. He still has a chance to pan out, but the odds appear slim. James Loney, who is 20, has the brighter future, although he's far from a hot prospect.

61 When was the last time you saw Choi get a long stretch of playing time?

Choi has a career 99 rate2.

Choi does well when he gets playing time, when he gets thrown on the bench for long periods of time, his power disappears.

Choi is a player who will make under a million dollars and can hit 30 home runs. That player is very valuable.

It'd be a pleasant surprise if Choi entered ST as the incumbent, but I just don't see that happening.

How about JT Snow? The Giant connection is there with Colletti, and he's shown solid plate discipline and is obviously terrific with the glove.

Off-topic, but I just discoved MLB.com's free-agent tracker. I remember people asking about a page where they could track FA movement, so I'm pasting the link here.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/hot_stove/y2005/free_agent_tracker.jsp

The thing you have to remember from a public relations standpoint is that if Choi is the presumed first baseman at the start of the season the press, talk radio and a large chunk of the fan base will simply consider it a failure. The story will be that the team didn't fulfill its need at first base. It will top the litany of things that are wrong with the Dodgers that the L.A. Times will be printing at least once a week throughout the season. If Choi doesn't succeed -- by which I mean, put up good scoreboard statistics -- absolutely no one will call it a risk worth taking. If you start talking about 99 rate2s or VORPs or anything like that people are just going to roll their eyes. If you are the GM and you're sensitive to public opinion -- and sensitive to public opinion is the direction they're going in now -- your job would be far safer if you overpaid for a mediocre power hitter who was good five years ago than if you went with Choi.

snow hasnt played anything close to a full season since 2002. Snow had a 708 OPS last season, Choi had a 789 OPS. If LA wants an all-glove no-slug% 1b, they can just promote Loney.

65. this is why i really hope the sox or anaheim signs Konerko. After him, who's left for the dodgers to get? I would like little more than to see the Angels spend $65 million on Konerko, then watch Choi post a better OPS.

67 - Same here.

If Choi just had a chance to play he'd put up good numbers. Any kind of numbers.

67
And put up better "scoreboard" statistics as well.

So, the White Sox have traded the starting center fielder from their championship team, are poised to let their 1B walk away in free agency, declined an option on their DH, and let clutch hitter Geoff Blum sign with the Padres.

Is Plaschke's Chicago equivalent biterly whining about how the Sox are tearing apart a World Series Champion?

61 seems to have become the settled wisdom about Choi, and no one who holds this position cares to be confused with the facts. Choi's become the eternal symbol of the stupidity of sabremetrics--the big dumb guy who draws a lot of walks, hits the occasional dinger, can't field his position and is mostly valued because he came cheap. For that reason, 65 is not just settled wisdom, it is the sad truth, and points to the main difference between DePodesta and most other GMs. Maybe because he was such an introvert, he didn't much care that a lot of people didn't see in Choi what he did. Colletti doesn't even need to go through even a rudimentary evaluation process for Choi. Ned knows that if Choi is not replaced as the presumed starter at 1B, he will get Plaschke'd all year, and will be fired. It's not even debatable. Even if Choi ended up having a good season, Ned's offseason would be seen as a failure.

65 and 71 - Yeah you're right. Man, I hate Bill Plaschke.

70 Jay Mariotti seems happy

http://tinyurl.com/75czr

Of course, all of baseball thinks Kenny Williams stole Thome.

Guys, there's trouble lurking. The Dodgers are poised to lose yet another 2004 player

http://www.nikkansports.com/ns/baseball/p-bb-tp0-051128-0007.html

For those of you who don't understand Japanese (like me) that supposedly says the Orix Buffaloes are close to signing Jason Grabowski. Best to give yourselves a moment for that to sink in, I know how devestating it is

Maybe because he was such an introvert, he didn't much care that a lot of people didn't see in Choi what he did.

Depo's (ostensible) inability to communicate his thought processes to his doubters was a large part of his downfall. An old econ professor of mine used to refer to the "fallacy of the mute genius," and how it makes no difference if you're the smartest person in the world if you can't communicate your ideas to other people.

Depo faced a greater burden in this respect than most GMs because of his relatively unorthodox approach.

I am not a Hee Sop fan & still do not see any upside to Choi. he is a defensive liability and he is a streak hitter, regular playing time or not. There is a place for him and it's called the American league, home of the DH.

As for first base, I have to think Gurnick's point is well made. Don't mortgage and/or block the future with a Delgado or Konerko. The answer is Jeff Kent. He said he would play there if asked, "for the good of the team". This opens up 2nd for any of the young Dodgers (Perez, Aybar, Guzman??) to win in the spring. It also buys another year for Loney to mature at 1B.

76 Jeff Kent goes from a phenomonal asset to slightly above average if you move him to first. Moving him there is a very good way to waste eight million dollars.

71 - Good points...

A good starting point to finding what the "holes" of the team are by considering how they ranked by OPS. 1B was their third best position last year ranked 10th in the league. Here're the positions w/ ranks: 2b(2), cf(4), 1b(10), rf(12), c(20), 3b(20), ss(27), lf(30)

I'm sure most people that bother with "stats" (eww) would argue that the Dodgers could've done better at 1B with wiser usage of the platoon with Saenz. The only way I would call 1B a "hole" is if Saenz left. Even then I'd be inclined to give an almost full-time job to Choi.

Too bad Colletti would be crucified if he denied that 1B was a problem location. I think DePodesta's biggest mistake was saying "regression to the mean" to a sports columnist. The poor columnist might've thought that the Dodgers weren't going to be nice anymore.

[Choi] is a defensive liability

As for first base...The answer is Jeff Kent

This must be irony, for I have no other way to explain it.

77 So if you assume a) Choi cannot start, due to baseball politics (or because he sucks, depending on your POV); b) Gurnick's right, and a long contract to a high priced FA is a bad idea because it would block Loney or Guzman's arrival; and c) Kent's value is diminished by moving him to first base; Where does that leave the Dodgers?

Probably Snow is the best bet, with Choi as his "back-up." Snow is not in a position to ask for a lot of money, although he'll still be overpaid. When he plays, he's far from an embarassment. But he'll have to sit a lot, so Choi will have at least some chance to prove the doubters wrong.

Given the soundness of Gurnick's argument, I think Snow provides Colletti a way to please some of the people some of the time, and let him focus his dollars and attention on other positions. Better Snow than Konerko.

Choi's best friend may be a limited budget.

Best case scenario... at spring training, Colletti after being asked why he didn't upgrade 1B, "We felt our biggest holes were in left field, 3rd base, and the starting rotation. So we signed Brian Giles, Nomar Garciaparra, and [insert random starting pitcher here, I really don't care]. At the end of the day, we just didn't have enough money to sign a Paul Konerko or want to give up big prospects for a Carlos Delgado. We're going with Hee Seop Choi, and if he isn't up to the task, we'll move Jeff Kent there as a last resort."

Then Choi gets a chance to play because Kent doesn't want to play 1st, so Choi gets off to a hot start and never looks back, hitting .270/.390/.500 with 30-35 home runs and 80+ RBI's as the Dodgers win the West. The media praises Colletti for keeping Choi, ignoring the fact that he was a DePo pick-up. And everybody lives happily ever after. Or as close to it as a world with Bill Plaschke will allow.

Why is Choi's defense such a huge issue and not Olmedo's? I wonder how many consecutive saves Gagne would've had had Choi started that game.

80 If starting Choi really is not an option (grumble) I'd go get Travis Lee or Eduardo Perez for a year for about 1.5 million.

Loaiza's