so far so good Mr. Ned. I thought the worse but I'm starting to like this guy.

So, did Dan Patrick ever spill his whopper?

Furcal and Mueller at the top of the lineup would look good. what do others think the projected line up look right now?

3 for 3. Grady could Tracy this one up in '07, but as of now, it's not bad.

Our infield and top of the order is looking pretty solid.

Who can be had to fill out the outfield?

3 As of now ...

Furcal, SS
Choi, 1B
Drew, CF
Kent, 2B
Mueller, 3B
Cruz, RF
Ledee, LF
Navarro, C

Or something like that. I'm not hung up on the batting order here, but that isn't an Opening Day outfield.

6 - So Werth, for sure, is not well by opening day?

Love the signing. And Joe, you're right, need another outfielder. And a starter.

But so far, I like what the Dodgers are doing.

With the Mueller signing, our 40 man roster is at 39 players. How much longer can Myrow and Edwards stay on the roster?

8 - er Jon

6 - ...but that isn't an Opening Day outfield.

Indeed. Drew may still not be ready and you just know one of Ledee/Cruz is going down. Uh, that's in addition to JD's inevitable visits to the DL.

6 - ...but that isn't an Opening Day outfield.

Indeed. Drew may still not be ready and you just know one of Ledee/Cruz is going down. Uh, that's in addition to JD's inevitable visits to the DL.

I felt I need to state the obvious twice for effect.

8
I just thought you were referring to yourself in the third person.

As a novice sabremetrician, may I ask you all if there is a statistical tool for evaluating performance in the clutch?

There are players that are able to rise to the occasion when a game (or better, a championship) is on the line. Magic Johnson, Joe Montana, Kirk Gibson, etc. - pressure brings out the best in players like this. Mueller strikes me as having some of this quality, though that is purely observational and anecdotal (and mainly from a Boston friend who loves the guy).

What would be good statistical indicators of this kind of talent? Average with runners in scoring position? Average with 2 strikes? 2 strikes and 2 outs and RISP?

Thanks!

uh oh (ducks)

a corner outfielder to put cruz or ledee back on the bench as a 4th outfielder or to cover for injuries is all we need now. starting pitching an entirely different matter.

does anyone think Weaver accepts arbitration. with the way things are shaping up one more year from (i'm sorry Steve) might by time for the minor league guys and edwin.

Penny, Lowe, Odalis, Weaver is not that bad. Everyone is healthy right now coming into the season

"Clutchness" is a term that divides baseball fans into two camps with such fervor that it can get nasty.

It's like debating religion vs. science, transubstantiation vs. consubstantiation, pro-life vs. pro-choice, USC vs. Texas, Dick York vs. Dick Sargent.

I hope Weaver accepts arbitration for the same reason I like the Meuller signing - it keeps us from having to bring up our young guys too soon. If Weaver doesn't come back and we don't replace him with a veteran, I fear the temptation to start Billingsley will be too great.

Also, Jon, I seriously doubt Choi will be hitting second on Opening Day or any other day. Even if he is the right choi(ce) because of his OBP, no manager looks at a big hulking first baseman who doesn't hit for average and thinks, "Yes, I've found my two-hole guy!"

19 And recognizing that Jon said his roster wasn't batting-order-fixed, the espn.com article on Mueller has him batting second. I'm sure they consulted Grady Little before writing that, of course.

http://tinyurl.com/8gfdp

15 - Greetings, Tyro. You may wish to read this:

http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.pdf

19 - You're right. He's too big to only have two holes.

i have a friend who was asking me about clutch hitting. i told him i didn't really know, but i gave him some links to check out:

a good and accessible intro, from bill james himself:

http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.PDF

a good discussion of bill james' article on baseball think factory here, including
a further elaboration from james and some dissenting view from some other guy:

http://tinyurl.com/7haoj

that one has to be accessed through the google cached page because BTF moved it
or something, but it's worthwhile.

some more views

pro:
http://www.tangotiger.net/clutch.html (tangotiger is a very reputable sabermetrician)
http://www.dolphinsim.com/ratings/notes/clutch.html (i think this is pro-clutch,
i only skimmed it myself)

con:
http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/clutch_art.htm
http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/10/23/234743/73#readmore

a brief article from the very enjoyable Hardball Times site which includes the following
gem:
"Clutch hitters may not exist, but Jose Valentin is definitely one of them."

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/clutch-masters/

Gimme NoMah in Left and Washburn in the rotation, and how about Alvarez as swingman on the cheap. Looking forward to Opening Day.

Has anyone been spreading Rickey to the Dodgers rumours besides me?

I'm sure the pursuit of Nomar (for left? first?) heats up here. It wouldn't be bad.

I won't mind losing the Chopper, if it forces us to stop debating his de/merits. I won't mind keeping him either, if we can hit him 7th and consider his likely sporadic contributions to be gravy. I always thought DePo was right on this point, counting on him last year for something like 20/80 and no more. He wouldn't be a huge loss, though the chant was always a kick in the head and he was a likeable presence. (A moment of silence here for Milton Bradley's charming remark last year--perhaps his only one. "I like Chop. Chop's good people.")

It'll be interesting, for sure.

One gets the impression that Colletti must have sat McCourt down and explained to him slowly and clearly that if he wasn't going to have a $100 million payroll next year he was going to lose another 90 games.

Rickey was born on December 25. Just like his pal Jesus. I think they had a birthday party together with some of their nursery school friends. Mary made a really nice cake.

28 Pay Jesus!

Incidentally, I just installed Linkification for Firefox. Makes following links around here much easier.

How did you arrive at the conclusion Jesus was born on December 25th?

How offical is this? MLB.com has nothing on the matter, while both Yahoo and ESPN are sourcing the Pittsburgh Post Gazzette.

28-- Bob, you may be confused; Rickey actually was a classmate of Moses.

21 & 23 - Thanks Scareduck and Vishal. I'll bone up.

The guys that paint the player murals around Dodger Stadium better get started early this year.

25- Lofton is Rickey part 2. Kenny's only 38, so perhaps he has a 2 year incentive laden contract coming. NoMah, Lofton, Drew in outfield. That could work. Lots of pinch-hitters, pinch-runners and depth in case of injuries.

24- forgot about Alvarez's wing being injured. This Homer really liked him on the Dodgers.

Does Armas Jr. still have anything left at 27 years of age? I like him on the cheap...at about less than 2 mil per.

32 - http://tinyurl.com/dudj2

MLB.com on Mueller.

The Dodgers site now has this, again citing the Pittsburgh Post Gazzette.

[26] milton had another good quote about being rendered defenseless. for a guy with a "thug" reputation, he sure is articulate.

In my mind Milton will say just about anything to shift blame. And I'm sure he believes it at the time he says it. He reminds me of the Humphrey Bogart character in Treasure of the Sierra Madre. "Fred C. Dobbs never says nothin he don't mean"

26--I really do like Milton, though. I'm not crushed we had to lose him (I don't think he'll quite fulfill his potential in the same way Raul Mondesi didn't,) but he was sort of a delight to have around. The spot of him that ran endlessly last year ("Dodger stadium..there's no better etc.) with that image of him tugging his jersey and barking. I'll miss that. I wish him well on the A's and thank God we didn't trade him to an NL team.

39 There was an ESPN article about Milton a while ago. He's a smart man. Graduated high school with like a 3.9 GPA.

I'm happy about Mueller. He was the one Giant I liked during the period he played here in SF (did I say that? I liked a Giant? Gack!) Well, I always respected JT Snow's style of play, too, but I'm hoping we don't sign him. Anyway, Mueller's a good call. Now we don't have to rush LaRoche.

I heard a funny anecdote about him on the Razor and Mr. T (Tolbert) show up here on KNBR, when a caller said he could never respect Mueller until he learns to spell his name "Miller," the way it's pronounced. Razor said Mueller had once told him the reason it's pronounced that way is because his family was nervous about having a German sounding name right after WWII so they changed the pronunciation way back then, and it stuck. Makes sense to me.
(But hey, that was awhile ago, it's probably safe to change it back now.)

Ug. I'm not happy with Mr. Ned's recent moves. Don't see how Mueller is an improvement over A. Perez. His defense in mediocre (in other words, about the same as Perez), his power comes in the form of doubles and triples which will be suppressed at Dodger Stadium, he is a huge injury risk, plus he will cost millions rather than league minimum. As for trading two decent big leaguers for one B+ prospect, double ug. I can't wait for the JT signing.

43
I think it would have been around WWI not WWII.

There was a lot more anti-German hysteria during that war.
However, the story doesn't make a lot of sense since Bill Mueller's family is from a part of the country where nearly everybody has a German name.

(See name attached to this post.)

Also check Red Schoendienst's birthplace.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schoere01.shtml

I guess I should have said 3 for 4. He did hire Grady.

44- Yeh, it was a lame signing considering we could have played face fractured Antonio Perez and would have waited a while on hurt knee emotionaly unstable Bradley. Instead of starting those two players he signs a proven winner. Man Ned should change his name to dumbo with moves like that.

I have had a facial fracture before and it affects your depth perception for about 18 months, so if AP's defense was horrible before it wont be getting any better anytime soon.

Asssuming this is true, it goes into the same category as Ned's other moves, not the worst possible thing, but not great either.

Had the Dodgers not gotten Furcal, I'd be much happier with this move, but as it stands, Until the 2008 season begins, the Dodgers have Izturis, Furcal, and Mueller under contract. This basically ends Guzman's career at shortstop, and forces him into the outfield. LaRoche is stuck in AAA until then. Right now, the Dodgers have several players that can play on the left side of the infield that have no where to go for two seasons.

By next year, Aybar, LaRoche, Guzman, Delwyn Young and possibly even DeWitt could be ready. None of them have any real spots on the team now.

I simply have to wonder how much better than Aybar and Perez Mueller is.

You guys are living in a fantasyland. Colleti has made 3 moves so far and each one has been HORRIBLE.
1) The Furcal signing was atrocious. $13 million for an above-average shortstop? You're kidding me! Furcal's OPS is .150 points higher than Izzie, and Furcal is making $11 million more.
2) Beane just raped Colleti on the trade. There's no other word for it. An all-star caliber outfielder and a throw-in for a prospect? A PROSPECT???? I don't care if the guy was player of the year in all of AA ball -- that's like being the tallest ant.
3) Mueller and Perez look pretty similar to me on paper, and Mueller is going to make a lot more money.
4) This hasn't happened yet, but what about Johnny Damon? He's demanding 5+ years, but he's already 33. And how much is he going to cost? There's no way he accepts less than Furcal got per year. If you can somehow get him to bend on one of those two things he'll be a great pick-up. But I doubt a new GM on a losing team can do that when there are other bidders.

45 Hmm, you mean something I heard on AM radio could prove to be false?? ;-) But seriously, this was what Mueller himself apparently used as the reason. Maybe it was WWI, but as one who's been working on a WWII script for the past couple of years, I can tell you (not from firsthand experience) there were some people who were scared of anti-German resentment during that time, too. But you're right, it was worse during WWI. Maybe Mueller's grandmother made that story up so he'd have something to use to explain to confused teachers and mocking schoolchildren, and later, to confused press and mocking baseball fans.

I don't recall Mueller's defense being that bad nor him being a huge injury risk - certainly not over AP (whom I liked), who, as Curtis mentions above, has a fractured jaw. Btw, if it doesn't work out, bring up LaRoche.

the mueller move is a good move. Although we now only have 1 pick in the first 3 rounds of the 2006 draft. we lose 2nd rounder for furcal and 3rd rounder for mueller. :(

if our prospects are ready and mueller and izzy both play like they are capable of, there will be a market for them and they can always be traded.

now, we need to add an OF bat. Reggie sanders wouldnt be bad as he was not offered arbitration as well. Nomar would be a good choice too if he is willing to play LF.

mr. ned, please stick with the choi/saenz platoon. it works! trust me.

48 "This basically ends Guzman's career at shortstop, and forces him into the outfield."

Why? Mueller is signed for 2 years, Furcal for 3. Is JtD ready to move up this year? Is he ready to move up next year?

Does anyone have an idea of what our draft will look like next year with the recent free agent signings? We have the #7 pick which cannot be touched and I assume we will lose our second and third rounds for the Mueller and Furcal signings given they were both offered arbitration? If Weaver ends up signing with another team, are Braves entitled to the pick we recieve as compensation for losing Weaver ?

Honestly, I think some of you enjoy deriding everything that anyone associated with the Dodgers does. The Dodgers will be better next year (not saying much, I know), they will compete for the division title (again, not saying much), and could even be halfway good. All this, by the way, without sacrificing any of our top prospects (so far) and getting another team's best prospect.

I'm still worried about our outfield, but I already think our lineup looks a lot better than last year's, and better than most of the other team's in our division.

But I guess I'm just living in dreamland.

44 A Martinez, on KSPN yesterday, said that Perez didn't work hard, didn't try to improve himself at third base, and finally forced Tracy to sit him. We'll have to believe what we will.

49 Different point of view: Beane saved the Dodgers from non-tendering Bradley altogether; Mueller and Perez look very different in the clubhouse.

3 I'm still not convinced that the lineup right now isn't:
Furcal, SS
Robles, 2B
Drew, CF
Kent, 1B
Mueller, 3B
Cruz, RF
one-of-the-rookies-who-wins-a-Spring-job, LF
Navarro, C
Still not a Major League outfield. Even if we do make the Gathright trade.

re: Furcal -- sometimes there's something to at least making a bad thing better.

54 Are the Dodgers better tthan what they had going into 2004? Atre Furcal and Mueller better than what the Dodgers lost in Weaver and Bradley?

The Furcal signing was atrocious. $13 million for an above-average shortstop? You're kidding me! Furcal's OPS is .150 points higher than Izzie, and Furcal is making $11 million more

there are better ways to measure a players impact then OPS. Furcals vorp last year was over 8 and he is a huge improvement over izzy who by the way, we dont even know if he will still have the arm to play shortstop.

Beane just raped Colleti on the trade. There's no other word for it. An all-star caliber outfielder and a throw-in for a prospect? A PROSPECT???? I don't care if the guy was player of the year in all of AA ball -- that's like being the tallest ant.

bradley is an all star caliber player but to be an all star, you need to be on the field and play baseball. Bradley has not shown he can consistently be on the field. I think you are underating ethier here a little. Hes a pretty good player, could have a david justice type cieling.

Mueller and Perez look pretty similar to me on paper, and Mueller is going to make a lot more money.

they look similar except with mueller we know he can produce. with perez, last years season was rather flukish and out of line from his career norms. Also, perez tailed off considerbly in the second half, could be a sign that pitcher have figured him out. I guess im one of the few here that does not see antonio perez as anything special. Hes a decent bench player to have but when you have willy aybar that is mlb ready and delwyn young at AAA, along with oscar robles as the utility/defensive infielder, perez just doesnt seem to have a spot on the team.

How many of our current top prospects were drafted in the first 3 rounds?

49 - I'm fairly certain there was another word for it.

48 - I predict Mueller will move into a backup role by mid-2007 at the latest. In any case, one of the veterans you mention could be traded to make room for a prospect burning up the minors.

1. Furcal
2. Mueller
3. Drew
4. Kent
5. Outfielder Trade/Sign
6. Choi
7. Cruz/Ledee
8. Navarro

On the surface, that actually seems pretty formidable.

The major league team still needs an OF and pitching. Some of you worry toooo much about the minor leaguers and draft picks.

54
"The Dodgers will be better next year (not saying much, I know), they will compete for the division title (again, not saying much), and could even be halfway good." -- I agree, but the same good have been said for a healthy version of the 2005 club.

"I'm still worried about our outfield," -- so am I. Seems like it would have been a much better place to spend millions, than the IF. Starting pitching was a higher priority as well.

If McCourt has turned into moneybags overnight, fine. Otherwise I worry that Ned. isn't spending the limited funds very wisely -- and he is costing valuable draft choices.

re 53

so far, we have lost our second round pick to the braves for furcal, our 3rd rounder to the sox for mueller.

if weaver signs with another team, lets say for example the angels. we would get the #26 overall pick to go along with a first round compensation pick.

so basically, if we dont sign anymore Type A or B free agents and if weaver signs with another team, at the end of the day, we will still have 3 picks in the first 3 rounds.

60 Fair enough, there still lies the big question of how much we would be paying Mueller to sit on the bench in this scenario. Between Mueller, Izturis, and Saenz, the Dodgers could potentially have 8-10 million dollar on the bench, and have no outfield depth with the departure of Cruz and Ledee.

Of course, it's far to soon to worry about things like that.

Some charmingly hysterical posts on this topic already. I love the screaming the Dodgers have been "raped" (lovely word) because they traded an "all-star caliber" (really?) CF, and the hysteria over Furcal's money...a lot more troubling if it were out-of-proportion to the market (it isn't) or for, say, five years with or without an out clause. I think this is all to the good, rendering us competitive and then some in our weak division next year and then...well, we'll see. The assumption the prospects are all gonna arrive simultaneously (unlikely) and pan out at once (more so) to lead us to a dynasty (even more so) is just a wee bit fanciful, isn't it? Other than signing Giles--and Lord knows, he tried--Mr. Ned is doing the best we might expect, and I'd go so far as to wager we'd be a lot less comfortable with the presumably "bolder" moves DePo might be making.

That's an imponderable, of course. And it's not our comfort now that matters either, but that's another topic.

How many of our current top prospects were drafted in the first 3 rounds?

a lot of them in fact.

billingsley- first round
tiffany- 2nd round
elbert- first round
dewitt- first round
loney- first round
orenduff- first round
broxton- second round
miller- first round

just off the top of my head.

Question: Does anyone know what happened to or will happen to Nakamura?

I promise, when it's time to get hysterical, I'll let you all know.

67-Ahhhhhh!

67-I wasnt aware that the first rounds were that critical, What is the success rate of draft picks picked up during the first 5 rounds?

Could all these free agent signings we've made in the last 2 yrs have a noticable negative affect on the future of our farm system?

72 - Considering Mr. Ned's hesitancy to deal any of the prospects away so far, I think that the strength of the farm system will be fine. If he can break Boras and sign Hochevar, it will look a little better too.

Could all these free agent signings we've made in the last 2 yrs have a noticable negative affect on the future of our farm system?

it depends. but with logan white i am not too worried. he has a knack for findint he late round gems:
laroche- 39th
martin- 17th
kemp- 6th
denker- 23rd

but im not too worried about the 2006 draft if weaver signs elsewhere. if he signs with the angels, the dodgers will have picks #7, #26, and probably #33.

3 picks in the top 40 will do wonders in helping the farm system.

54 I agree with this. As I just wrote in an email to a friend,

"the remarkable thing is that Colletti has improved the 2006 team marginally, has convinced the media that he's done even better than that, and has done so without sacrificing a single prospect. So far, not so bad. And look at all the bad signings he hasn't made: Soriano, Pierre, Burnett, Beckett, Thome....

I think I agree with nate about Perez. Recall that all the clamor to play him last year (from us) was because the alternatives were Edwards or Robles. Screaming that AP was better than those guys is not inconsistent with admitting that he was not starter-quality when the alternatives improved.

At this point, a decent 4th OFer to at least platoon with Ledee shouldn't be hard to find. The key, for me, is how Colletti deals with 1b (my hope is that he does nothing) and SP. And how much money he has for the pitching part of it.

Thanks Nate.

In terms of the Bradley deal, I think we all have to remember that Colletti was in a horrible negotiating position. The A's, Cubs, and Pirates certainly knew that McCourt was not willing to let Bradley play in 06'. Evidence of McCourts unwillingness to let Bradley play is the fact that Colletti didn't even botherto talk to Bradley or Kent to smooth over situation. Regardless of whether or not he is a great baseball player, he is without a doubt, a PR nightmare which is the last thing McCourt needs right now. I agree Perez was an unfortunate player to give up, but we have several young players that can easily fill his role.

I was incredibly skeptical at first; however, I am really starting to like Colletti. This is a great year to sign free agents given our high pick.

When rumors of that we were getting kirk sarloos or todd walker or corey patterson, getting andre ethier basically made my day.

Lets say weaver signs somewhere else and we end up signing Washburn does that void the pick we were given witht the waever signing? Or what happens to our draft status if Nomah is signed? I'm asking this because I'm a little worried as to what our farm will look like once these super kids begin their dynasty.

Travis Denker went to my high school.

basically, getting ethier solidfies that we will have 9 prospects in BAs top 100 this spring.

washburn and nomar were NOT offered arbitration, so we would not lose any picks.

sanders and lofton were not offered arbitration either. im not sure about millwood though.

Travis Denker went to my high school.

denker has a funny picture on myspace.

One guy I wish Neddy would have, and I think could have, gotten from Beane is Kielty. His overall numbers aren't that great, but his splits against lefties are pretty good (3 year average against .296/.388/.504/.892). He could be platooned with Ledee.

Harry Kingman went to my high school.

See, Bob - I finally remembered!

I knew I had to get off myspace when I got in an argument on the phone about a comment I made on it.

Despite the fact that my high school was very good in baseball (number one in the nation in 2000), the only major leaguer to come out of it is Sean Barry.

From that number one team, only one player got drafted, and he flamed out after hitting .150 in rookie ball for the Tigers.

I was surprised when I found out that Denker was a regarded prospect for the Dodgers. He's pretty short, particularly for a 1B.

with vasquez going to the white sox and garland and contereras being impending FAs after next season, one of them, or maybe both will be on the block since they have brandon mccarthy ready to take a rotatin spot.

so my question, what would you guys give up for garland or conteras?

Does anyone think that Nomar has a chance to sign and play left field?

What are our other viable options in the outfield. Nobody here likes Jones.

denker played 2b last yr for the dodgers SAL team and lead the lea