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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
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Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 40-30 (.571)
When Jon attended: 6-3 (.667)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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The Dodgers scheduled their press conference to announce the signing of Nomar Carciaparra for 2 p.m.
If the Dodgers send Hee Seop Choi off to a new home, does that eliminate the last hot-button issue from 2005? Jim Tracy, Milton Bradley, the shrinking Dodger payroll and Choi probably make up the top four.
The most that would be left from this year would be the debate over the value of some long-term contracts for J.D. Drew, Derek Lowe and others.
Update: Five scouts talk to Scott Miller of CBSSportsline.com about where they would play Garciaparra in the field.
Update 2: "You go out and play (the position) asked of you," Garciaparra says at the press conference. So what position(s) will that be? Unbelievably, it appears no one has asked for on-the-record clarification. So we'll have to wait for the post-press conference stories to find anything out.
But we do learn that Garciaparra ate French dips from Phillipe's before going to Dodger games as a kid.
Actually IIRC, there was an interview with Jamie McCourt (T.J. Simers maybe?) in which this subject was brought up. She basically said she thought it was a mistake, but that because of MLB rules they wouldn't be able to change the unis back until season after next, so 2007.
(Take that with a grain of salt because I don't have a link to the story, but I'm pretty sure I remember it correctly.)
In 2007, they'll be anonymous too, but they'll just have names on their uniforms.
Does Robles have options left?
http://tinyurl.com/d8xv9
His argument is that Colletti overpaid for Furcal but that such a bold move helped convince other free agents (Mueller, Garciaparra, Lofton) that the Dodgers were going in the right direction. He also says:
"But what's interesting about what Colletti has done, in changing the direction of the organization, is that the Furcal signing, in the big picture, has helped the Dodgers into a better financial position. The commitments to Mueller and Garciaparra and Lofton are all modest, one year or two years.
This buys the necessary time for the forthcoming wave of highly regarded prospects from L.A.'s strong farm system to develop. Mueller, Garciaparra and Lofton are part of the bridge to the future. By 2008, the team will probably belong to players like Chad Billingsley, Andy LaRoche and Joel Guzman. This is smart business."
Brian Anderson 33
Tony Armas 27
Pedro Astacio 36
Kevin Brown 40
Roger Clemens 43
Shawn Estes 32
Gary Glover 29
Kazuhisa Ishii 32
Jason Johnson 32
Byung-Hyun Kim 26
Al Leiter 40
Jose Lima 33
Joe Mays 30
Kevin Millwood 30
Ramon Ortiz 32
Brett Tomko 32
Ismael Valdez 32
Jarrod Washburn 31
Jeff Weaver 29
Jamey Wright 30
The name "PacBell Park" is available too.
9 - Washburn signed with the Mariners.
If Al Leiter joined the Dodgers, someone better make sure the 5-day waiting period for gun purchases in California is enforced rigorously.
Yet when DePodesta was doing the same thing, Olney couldn't figure out what on earth he was doing. Since Colletti's doing it with recognizable names, it must be a genius master plan.
old lineup: izturis, werth, drew, kent, bradley, choi, valentin, navarro
Seems to me we're upgrading with proven guys and signing them to short term deals while the prospects are developing. I like the strategy, especially in this division.
120-thousand people have voted on Nomah's potential if he stays healthy on the ESPN poll.
So new lineup: Furcal, Lofton, Drew, Kent, Garciaparra, Mueller, Cruz/Werth platoon, Navarro ... that'll work.
Until we add at least one decent pitcher, though, these moves makes us look like we're trying to compete without actually making us any more competitive.
Jon's usual warning about not jumping to conclusions obviously applies. Its only December 19, but right now, we're the Mets.
6 - I agreed with Olney. An outbreak of hives ensued.
I think Buster's right, and I think 13 is right with the critical difference in the eyes of the media being, Colletti has not let any division-winning heroes leave.
11 - The team isn't so much old as brittle. Outside of Kent and Mueller (and I guess Lofton), guys are basically in their 20s or early 30s. But yeah, along the lines of 13, it certainly isn't a more physically sound team than what DePodesta was constructing.
June 1, 1988: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the 17th round of the 1988 amateur draft.
December 10, 1991: Traded by the Houston Astros with Dave Rohde to the Cleveland Indians for Willie Blair and Eddie Taubensee.
March 25, 1997: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Alan Embree to the Atlanta Braves for Marquis Grissom and David Justice.
October 28, 1997: Granted Free Agency.
December 8, 1997: Signed as a Free Agent with the Cleveland Indians.
November 5, 2001: Granted Free Agency.
February 1, 2002: Signed as a Free Agent with the Chicago White Sox.
July 28, 2002: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the San Francisco Giants for Felix Diaz and Ryan Meaux (minors).
November 4, 2002: Granted Free Agency.
March 14, 2003: Signed as a Free Agent with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
July 23, 2003: Traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Aramis Ramirez and cash to the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named later, Jose Hernandez, and Matt Bruback (minors). The Chicago Cubs sent Bobby Hill (August 15, 2003) to the Pittsburgh Pirates to complete the trade.
October 30, 2003: Granted Free Agency.
January 6, 2004: Signed as a Free Agent with the New York Yankees.
December 3, 2004: Traded by the New York Yankees to the Philadelphia Phillies for Felix Rodriguez.
The Dodgers would be team number 10. Lofton has been to the postseason with 5 different teams.
Derek Lowe (33 in June)
Sandy Alomar (40 in June)
Jeff Kent (38 in March)
Bill Mueller (35 in March)
Nomar Garciaparra (33 in July)
?Kenny Lofton (39 in May)
Five to six guys on the 40-man roster. I wouldn't call that an old team yet.
Johnson has had the same ballpark benefit of playing in Comerica, has given up about the same number of HR's as Tomko, but at least keeps the ball on the ground for the most part (~1.7 G/F last 2 years).
Is Lofton not an upgrade over Repko?
Is Furcal not an upgrade over Izturis and Robles?
About the only point I can argue is what everone else argues, whether Garciaparra > Choi + Saenz.
Whether Depo was not allowed to increase the payroll last year, or he chose not to, it certainly seems that Ned is being given the financial freedom to bring in some names.
I don't see much downside in offering Choi arb and taking a month to sort out the lineup. I'd prefer we trade Saenz but the list of DH-types seeking work is getting long- Thomas, Piazza, Lecroy, Sanders, Durazo, maybe Craig Wilson.
1) Is it possible to overhaul a shredded nucleus?
2) Why would you want to reacquire Steve Finley?
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/sports/columns/article_903305.php
Then again, perhaps Ned didn't want to get in a situation where he signed guys under false pretenses. "Nomar, we brought you in to play third... Never mind, we just signed Mueller."
The reports of the Lofton signing, if true, started giving me a Bill Stoneman vibe about Colletti. He's wiling to nuture the minors, but not enough to let them play.
We three talented young players in Werth, Aybar, and Choi, and two of them are guaranteed to lose their jobs, possibly all three. See the stories of Jeff DaVanon, and the developing saga of Casey Kotchman. When DaVanon was called up, he had a 1.030 OPS in AAA. He was given 30 at bats in 2001, then banished from the team to return as a bench player in 2003 and 2004. By the time he was given a starting job, he was 31.
Young players with an upside don't stay that way forever, if Werth and Choi are left to languish this year, it could have a very bad effect on the rest of their careers.
"Nomar Garciaparra's decision to sign with the Dodgers leaves the Yankees for now with unproven players in two positions in the lineup. In addition to Bubba Crosby, who will be in center field unless the Yankees can find an upgrade, Andy Phillips is currently set to share first base and designated hitter with Jason Giambi. The Yankees have expressed interest in free agent Eduardo Perez, late of Tampa Bay, for a similar role. Cleveland, San Diego, Florida, Tampa Bay and the Cubs are also believed to have contacted Perez."
-- Newark Star-Ledger
Doing so seems like a sure-fire way to anger your new players.
I think so, since Cruz Jr. can play RF (assuming Drew is insistant on playing CF), whereas Lofton cannot. Werth could play RF when he comes back.
Saenz is a strange one since he, along with Choi, loses a lot of value if not starting. He's strictly a RH bat off the bench now, with minimal defensive capabilities. At least Choi is left-handed (something LA lacks off the bench).
Shredding a nucleus tends to lead to things that make mushroom clouds.
Did McCourt authorize a higher amount last year, but Depo just didn't see the added value that increasing payroll would give (diminishing returns?)? Or was Depo held under stricter financial limits than Ned now has?
i figure if we're still going to get an outfielder and a pitcher, it'll bump us up to almost $100M.
Seems that Ned would rather find playing time for Lofton than Choi/Saenz.
That could certainly be correct.
And if you wanted Steve Karsay or Danny Graves, they are no longer available
33 - Choi in the New York media - that would lead to more shredded nuclei.
As much as I like the guy, you can't expect Werth to stay healthy - and that can be said for much of the roster. Keeping that in mind, what appears to be a roster surplus now may come in quite handy.
Lofton is a downgrade from Bradley and compareable to Werth/Cruz.
Furcal is an upgrade to Izzy/Perez/Robles, but at the cost of $13 mils per year. His fielding is as good as Izzy and his bat as good as Perez. Their respective WARP numbers will come in around 6 for Furcal, 4 for Izzy (if healthy), 2 for Perez. That's a marginal cost per win of $3 to $5 mils -- very expensive.
Garciaparra is a wash to a downgrade at 1B from Choi/Sanez. All Nomar's big numbers come from Fenway and occurred many injuries ago. He hasn't played 1B before, so he likely won't be an improvement on D. And he costs many mils more (depending on what incentives kick in).
Until baseball adopts football's two-platoon system, it's misleading to compare any player with the best half of another.
Nomar is .517, but only 3 games.
Mueller's OPS+, which is park-adjusted, in the last three seasons: 140, 106 and 112.
Maybe he was on to something.
Mueller is definitely an upgrade defensively over those 2. Aybar, in limited time, was a poor defender at 3B. Perez was slightly better than Aybar at 3B (still below average based on rate2), but rumor has it that he was not thrilled with playing there (he preferred 2B, where he put up Soriano-like numbers in the field).
Mueller has been consistently above average at 3B for a number of years now.
Agree or not, but it is apparent that defense is a priority for the new regime. Mueller, Lofton, and Furcal are all above-average to excellent defenders, in addition to being offensive contributors.
You need about 1900 abs from the outfield, so lets see where we're at:
Werth 337
Lofton 367
Drew 252
Cruz Jr 370
Ledee 237
Total 1563
Well if the outfield matches their 05 abs all the dodgers need is some contributions from a 6th outfielder and toss in a sept. call up or two and that outfield is solid!
Nobody reads my Lo Duca posts.
http://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/305602.html
There were was supposed to be sarcasm around my comment.
---
He also thinks we need a catcher and predicts we will get Molina http://tinyurl.com/98psn (Insider Only):
Updated: Dec. 15, 2005
Los Angeles Dodgers Need: Catcher
The Dodgers have talked about going with Dioner Navarro and Russ Martin behind the plate. Both players are young and inexperienced, which is a risky proposition for the Dodgers, as they still might be able to compete in baseball's worst division.
The catchers' free-agent market just disappeared on Bengie Molina. He had visions of signing a contract in the area of four years and $8 million per season, but when the Mets traded for Paul Lo Duca and the Diamondbacks traded for Johnny Estrada, two clubs that were thought to be big players in the catching market were eliminated. Ramon Hernandez signed with the Orioles, and then Brad Ausmus re-signed with the Astros. The Mariners also took themselves out of the catching hunt when they signed Kenji Johjima. The Padres also further reduced the market by trading for Doug Mirabelli. To add insult to injury, the Angels did not offer arbitration to Molina. Thus, the simple law of supply and demand has caught up with Molina.
He likely will take a one-year deal and try to score bigger in next year's free-agent market. He is a perfect fit in Los Angeles, but this time with the Dodgers.
IMO:
Lofton = good
Ledee = above average
Werth = good, but prone to injury
I don't think of those three as mediocre, not at all.
Should be an interesting year. I will go on record as saying I would not construct the team the way Colletti has, but if Kent's wrist injury is not serious and he can get one more solid season out of his 38 year old body (neither of those are a given) and if Drew can play in the outfield for 140 games with his usual career production and if Nomar can play 140 games and return to his historical production, the 2006 Dodgers will score some runs. I don't like the starting pitching past Penny and Lowe, but the bullpen looks very good. I am sure I will be criticized for saying this, but it may be that the worst thing for the long term success of this franchise will be for all of Ned's moves to work. If the Dodgers go into 2007 with a World Series ring on their fingers, there is no way McCourt and Colletti will turn the roster over to the kids.
Stan from Tacoma
I'd be careful about taking defensive statistics as gospel truth of true defensive abilities. It's still an inexact science that people are working hard on improving. Also, FWIW, the defensive "gurus" on Baseball Primer put very little stock in the Prospectus rate 2 numbers.
The most-respected measure is probably UZR, but the guy behind that system (Mitchell Lichtman) got hired by the Cardinals a few years back and his numbers are no longer publicized, although he does occasionally disclose some numbers here and there on Primer threads. UZR had Mueller as a slighly below-average fielder from 2000-20003. Now take that with a grain of salt, as fielding stats are not like hitting stats, but I think our defense at 3B is an open question. At the very least, we'll have a 3B who is comfortable at the position, and is not trying to learn a new position on the job (like Perez or Valentin).
Lofton: not good. A .350 OBP isn't "good" for a corner OF, and a .350 slugging is terrible for a corner OF. Not good. Not good at all.
Ledee: above average production + inability to play everyday = mediocre
Werth: (see Ledee)
Cruz: (see Ledee)
Personally, I don't think there's much danger of that happening, but I could be wrong.
59 Muller's career Rate2 at 3B is 99. That is the definition of average -- not above average to excellent like Furcal and Lofton.
Right?
Home 258 at bats .283/.358/.450/.808
Away 261 at bats .307/.380/.410 .790
He batted mostly 8th in Boston's lineup, with the Lofton signing, I see him batting 7th, when he played for Grady in 2003, he split between 2nd, 7th, and 8th.
It does appear that with these signings, nationally, the perception about the Dodgers has improved. In terms of the impact to Werth, Aybar and Choi, Werth probably has the best perceived value but with his off-season surgery, there was no certainity about his availability when spring training started. My hunch about Aybar is that the view from White, Ng, etc. is that he is projected as a utility player at best, and with Choi, well who knows, maybe only DePo supported him (like Antonio Perez), I still don't think he will be non-tendered but we'll know more today.
1. Lofton is playing CF, no??
2. Lofton's has never slugged lower than .365 in a full season. And that was in 1992.
3. Lofton's OBP last season was .392.
4. He's a great, not good, fielder.
5. In the last three years, Lofton stole 59 bases at an 80 percent clip. That's good.
Bob, I read your post at the Griddle. Keep up the good work. I'll continue to monitor the situation at the Griddle.
The beuaty of baseball