I think Jon forgot to mention that Best of Dodger Thoughts would make the ideal last minute holiday gift.

Before I forget everyone, whatever particular holiday you celebrate, I hope it's a very good one!

And a special Happy Holidays to the ringleader of this amazing circus.

Happy Holidays, Jon, to you and your family. Also a Happy Holidays to all the regulars here.

And though it's been said many times, many ways...thanks for providing this great online sanctuary.

Jon may not know these things, but I understand the NSA does. Now 100% warrant-free!

"A few days" of no new subjects? I predict 1000 pages.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, and be careful if you're planning on surfing through the holidays:

http://tinyurl.com/7kyje

Thank you Jon and all the rest of the commenters. This is one of the best communities on the Web by far, and that's because the people are not only smart, they're good-spirited. It's an amazing achievement, to build a club that anyone can join that seems so special. Your next book should be all about how you did that.

Happy Holidays Jon and everyone. I've become a DT addict in a short time.

Merry festivus to my online friends. A wonderful 2006 to you all.

Festivus!

Happy holdidays to all. Jon, thank you for all the work that you invest in this site. You have become something of an internet icon since I first started reading your work in late '03.

My resolution for '06 is to get to LA and see my first game at Dodger Stadium. I've been a Dodger fan since '57, but have never seen them play at home except during spring training at Vero.

There is only one present I know for sure is under the tree: The Best of Dodger Thoughts.

Of course, I get that every day. I'm a spoiled, spoiled man.

Happy Holidays, Jon. If you feel fortunate to keep this blog, we are doubly fortunate to have you running it.

Happy Holidays to all....

Happy Holidays to all. With every position taken care of before the new year I expect the rest of this winter to be quite boring and to take much to long to get to spring. I'd like to thank Ned for the short term contracts and for not signing Snow/Jones/Burnett/Damon and not trading for Soriano/Pierre.
I'm as pleased by what he's not done as to what he has done.

Happy Holidays everyone.

Have yourself a scrappy little ballclub
That's the way to play
From now on our batters all will swing away

Here we are as in olden days
With hit and run plays galore
Faithful friends who are dear to us [Mueller, Nomar, Lofton, et al]
Gather near to us once more...

Happy Holidays, everybody (take that, O'Reilly!). Mele Kalikimaka and Hauoli Makahiki Hou.

And dzzrtRat, I'll raise your surf report:

http://tinyurl.com/9seoz

careful rowing too . . . http://tinyurl.com/9xbjm

Jon, one of my 2005 highlights has been the discovery and participation in Dodger Thoughts. Thanks so much for all your TLC. It should be an even more fun place with the obviously better Dodger club in 2006. Now for the tough part, one of my new year resolutions is to get my DT compulsion under control!

Happy holidays everyone (yes, even you Frank, Jamie, Plaschke and Simmers)

After a rough season and a rougher off-season, its nice to have hope for the coming season.

Jon, as always, thank you and happy holidays to your family.

Thank you Jon. Your book arrived on my doorstep today and in print it is as delightful to read as the version that magically appears on my computer screeon on a daily basis. The magic is not really magic I am sure; lots of work and skill go in to what you place on this site day in and day out.

Thanks also to the people who comment here as well. I am amazed at the quality of the comments on this site. This is by far my favorite spot on the internet.

Happy Holidays everyone and I wish a Happy New Year to all.

Stan from Tacoma

Uh oh.. the Red Sox lost their "heart & soul" yesterday (so says Plaschke).

Damon is a fine player, don't get me wrong. Did losing Damon erase all the good things the Red Sox did this offseason?

And Plaschke just talked about OPS on "Around the Horn". Should we prepare for the rapture?

Jon - Happy Holidays and best wishes for a great New Year to you and all the DT gang!

Reading and posting here is almost as much fun as going to a game at Dodger Stadium.

Happy holidays--yes, indeed, Bill O'Reilly--to everyone. May Jon enjoy a break from his computer and calculator, and I will stay away from my abacus.

i'll take my turn at the podium as well. season's greetings to everyone, and thanks to all(and especially jon) for such an enlightening and enjoyable year talking dodgers, baseball, and everything else.

I sure do love reading Jon's posts and everyone's comments on this site. Have a Safe and Happy Holidays everyone!

I'd like to add my holiday greetings to all of you. Can't really say anything that hasn't already been said. My first stop in the morning and my last stop at night is DT (and far too many stops in between). Thanks for everything Jon.

Molokai, you mentioned in #12 above that things would be very boring between now and ST. We still need to find a pitcher or two. Ned may yet give us another gift under the Christmas tree (or Chanukah bush, as the case may be).

A fine year of Dodger Thoughts it has been (even if I only started my tenure back in June).

Jon, it's been a pleasure reading your wonderful prose, Bob Timmerman's pearls of wisdom, and the thoughtful insights of the most knowledgeable baseball fans in the universe.

Dodger Stadium, the edifice, may lie in Chavez Ravine. But the Dodger spirit resides here with us, one and all.

Merry Christmas everyone -- and especially you, little Ned. We have much to celebrate.

Happy Holidays all. I really enjoy reading everyone's thoughts about the Dodgers, even though I find myself often in the minority on this site.

Also I just read on Espn2 that the Angels traded Steve Finley to the Giants for Edgardo Alfonzo.

Finley to SF. Ha ha ha. This must make Rob very happy.

27 -

Here's a quote from the story on the Giant's site:

"Steve Finley is a player that can win games in many ways -- with his bat, his glove and his knowledge," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said in a statement.

Imagine how poorly Finley would have played last season (.222, 12 HRs) if he DIDN'T have such great game-winning knowledge.

"I think somebody would be wise to take this beautiful oven mitt."

Re: 29

Man, I wonder SBC will do to Finley's numbers. And that's a big OF he has to patrol.

WWSH

Finley's Rate2 last season was 99. I thought that stats showed him to be a poor fielder? He always looked overrated to me.

WWSH

Bonds, Moises, Winn, and Finley.

Sabean is also building an OF full of 100-gamers?

lol I thought this was all a joke till I actually saw it was real. Why do the Giants need another outfielder? They hated Alfonso that much.

"with his bat, his glove and his KNOWLEDGE" Maybe the Giants think Finley can replace Colletti.

His knowledge from last season on how to sit on the bench.

Happy Holidays Jon and thank you for this wonderful baseball site.

For the holidays, I decided to make a contribution to this website and it's nice to see that others are doing the same through purchases of The Best of Dodgers Thoughts. Jon doesn't do much self-promoting, but he definitely deserves more than just our gratitude for all of his high-quality work.

Does this mean Feliz will be the full-time 3B?

WWSH

Zero Mostel is running the Cubs. Mystery solved.

This might be old news to some - but I enjoyed this WSJ perspective on free agents and hot stove activities.
http://tinyurl.com/9el5c

I'm jetting out of Ontario tomorrow morning for 10 days in frigid New Hampshire so this might be the last time I get to check in here this year. I'd like to wish a safe and joyous holiday season to one and all, and thank Jon as well as each and every one of you commenters for all the terrific reading you've provided me with since spring. In 2006 I will be a fixture here from day one.

Once again, Happy Holidays and Choi to the world.

I just got done driving 15 hours from Denver to near San Antonio with the family for the holidays and my first thought when I got on-line was to check here of course. Anyway, I went 1-for-2: pulled over twice, one ticket. I righteously deserved the ticket on the one I got the ticket for, so all-in-all wasn't too bad...

In the spirit of the season, to all of my fellow D-T'ers have a wonderful holiday and enjoy the time with your family and friends. Jon, thank you for such a great place to hang out.

Merry Christmas!

39- That could could cut both ways. I can imagine McCourt singing: If I were a rich man,/Ya ha deedle deedle, bubba bubba deedle deedle dum./All day long I'd biddy biddy bum./If I were a wealthy man.

I'd like to wish every one the happy holiday of their choice (one is enough; don't get greedy). I'd also like to apologize to any Jehovah's Witnesses who were offended by my wishing them a happy holiday at all, which is so obviously insensitive.

43 -- It also makes Dusty Baker Mr. Belvedere.

I wish Feliz Navidad y Prospero Ano to one all.Wishing you a white Christmas and a blue 2006 Baseball season with the first championship in 18 years.Thanks ,Jon for this great seat in the bleachers.

Mary Lou Retton: "And God bless us, everyone."

I add my wishes for Happy Holidays for you all to the wishes of those who have preceeded me.

That Giant-Angels trade reminds me of two circuses firing clowns out of cannons at each other.

15 Linkmeister, that Hawaiian surf/swell/wind animated graphic made my day! Thank you!

48 If it didn't sound too "Wind in the Willows"-ish, I'd say "Ratty, glad you enjoyed it." ;)

This is the time of year when the really big swells start coming in. We've had several weeks of 12-20 foot waves, with multiple contests going on up there at Pipeline/Sunset.

Happy holidays everyone!!

Found this over on McCovey Chronicles:

"Here's another little thing that doesn't show up in the box score: Every time a Dodger scores a run, an angel has its wings ripped off by a demon, and is forced to tearfully beg the demon to cauterize the wounds. The demon will refuse, and the sobbing angel will lie in a puddle of angel blood and feathers for eternity, wondering why the Dodgers are allowed to score runs. That's not me talking; that's science. I hope Mueller is happy to be a part of that."

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2005/12/15/15137/236

apparently, we signed brett tomko.

2 yrs.....$7.7 million with a mutual option for the 3rd year.....$1 million buyout.....Basically, 2 yrs.....$8.7 million.....minus the $20,000 a year he donated to Dodger charities.

and that is from his brother on the espn giant board. they all seem to believe him. no reason why not considering its pretty precise info.

Re: 51

Well, that doesn't seem like much of a "steal," but at least the years are reasonable. I can live with it.

To compare some numbers:

Weaver

2004 - 220 IP 103 ERA+
2005 - 224 IP 96 ERA+

Tomko

2004 - 194 IP 110 ERA+
2005 - 190 IP 92 ERA+

Both pitchers look about the same for me, but Tomko's contract looks to be much less expensive than what Weaver will probably command.

WWSH

Decent pickup. Weaver is hardly gives the Dodgers "quality innings" and will likely get a contract for around $9 million a year.

we must ride the tomko wave to a World series championship. it has been written. tomko will win cy young/mvp/comeback player of the year/WS MVP.

simers says we got tomko too. i'm relatively satisfied with the offseason. could have been worse. a lot worse.

Braden Looper - 3 years, $13 million.

Brett Tomko - 2 years, $9ish million.

I can deal.

Free-agent pitcher Brett Tomko has agreed to terms on a two-year, $8.7 million contract that includes a club option for a third year and a $1 million buyout, two sources with knowledge of the negotiations said Wednesday.

Latest Steve Henson article. Coincides quite well with Tomko's brother's report on the ESPN Giant board, I must say.

6. (dzzrtRat) said: "It's an amazing achievement, to build a club that anyone can join that seems so special."

I'm reminded of Groucho Marx's line about not wanting to belong to any club that would have [me] as a member. But a member I am and happily so.

Sorry to see Finley go to the G'ints. Having been at the stadium to see his division clinching grand slam, that will be my lasting memory of him as a Dodger. While he didn't do much for the Angels, at least I could root for him to do well. Not now.

Safe travels and a Merry Christmas to all, and thank you Jon.

Based on the projected opening day lineup, Navarro will be sharing the field with players making an average of 16 times what he's making. If I were in his cleats, I don't know if I'd be intimidated, jealous or looking forward to my own big payday. I'd like to think I'd just be thrilled to be playing major league ball with the Dodgers. Of course, in real life, I'd consider Navarro's $325k a huge payday.

I'm not very excited about Tomko. I guess it's a realatively cheap contract though. Too bad it's two years instead of one.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5189112

prior for tejeda!?!? if that goes down, that would be the definition of a blockbuster.

61- then at the trading deadline...
Izturis, Joel Guzman, Odalis Perez and cash for Prior

So, we have the following roster so far:

SP:

Penny
Lowe
OP
Tomko
Houlton/Bills/EJ

Relievers:

Gagne - Closer
Sanchez - RHP
Broxton - RHP
Brazoban - RHP
Kuo - LHP
Wunsch - LHP

Starters:

LF - Cruz
CF - Lofton
RF - Drew
1B - Nomar
2B - Kent
SS - Furcal
3B - Mueller
C - Navarro

Bench

Ledee - OF
Werth/Repko/Ethier - OF
Saenz - 1B/3B
Choi - 1B
Aybar/Robles - Utility
Alomar - C

WWSH

Tomko struggled at the end for the Giants last year, so I wonder what Mr. Ned knows that we don't. He and Felipe had problems.

As far as other pitchers go I hope the 5th spot can be left for the youngsters to compete for....I wonder if this season marks the most former Giants playing for their arch rival? I count Kent, Tomko, Lofton, Mueller, Sandy Jr.

63

I think that roster can get her done in the NL West. Now if the dodgers can get some luck health wise and have a break out from EJack or even Cbilling, it can do some damage.

tomko had 3.78 era in the second half last yr.

The LA Giant-Red-Sock Dodgers construction proceeds apace. ;)

The sentence I've come to associate most with Tomko is "all right, we're facing Tomko today, easy win." The man is not a good pitcher. He's had an ERA+ over 100 two years, 1997, and 2004. If it weren't for his breakout 2004, he'd be on a steady downhill slope since he was 24. He doesn't strike anyone out, read about 5 - 5.5 per nine, and doesn't have any great walk or home run rates to make up for it.

Tomko's upside is as a fourth starter. 2004 was an extreme fluke, Tomko is a slightly better than replacement level pitcher, and little more.

As all previous posters have said Happy Holidays to all and heres to a great 2006. Does anyone think that Ned will try to move Odalis if he signs another pitcher?

Brett Tomko as a 3rd/4th guy, not bad considering all the money that is being dealt out there. The Padres after Peavy have Woody Williams, Chan Ho Park and Chris Young. And the Giants have after Schmidt, Cain, Matt Morris, and some other guys.

L.A. Times article states that Ned prefers to have Houlton as the "swing/long man" although he really did not do well in that role last year. But he could never get past 5 and he would always have that one bad inning.

But based on that article, here is my current 25 man roster:

SP Penny
SP Lowe
SP Perez
SP Tomko
SP FA/trade
BP Houlton
BP Sanchez
BP Brazoban
BP Broxton
BP Gagne
BP LH Wunsch?

SS Furcal
CF Lofton
RF Drew
2B Kent
1B Nomar
LF Cruz, Jr.
3B Mueller
C Navarro

C Alomar, Jr.
IF Choi
IF Saenz
IF Robles
OF Ledee
OF Werth

If Werth isn't ready at the end of Spring training, then maybe Repko has a shot. Unless Aybar can play short, I don't see him making the club. I suppose Nomar could play there in an emergency but I think Ned would want to have Robles glove there.

Only 9 players have contracts for 2007 or later and that counts Drew who has a player option at the end of 2006 and Izzy who is not on the active roster but is signed through 2007 too.

68 -- Since Tomko's lifetime ERA at Dodger Stadium is 2.93, if you were counting on an "easy win" every time we faced Tomko, you were no don't constantly disappointed. For the last two years, Tomko has been only marginally worse than Jeff Weaver, and considering the terms of the deal we just made for Tomko, and what some dumb team is going to give Weaver in way of a contract, we have done very well getting Tomko.

70 Fair enough. The first thing that actually came to my head was "I can't believe we lost to Brett (very bad word) Tomko," but it didn't really help to orchestrate my point. Besides, before we get too excited about these career numbers at Dodger Stadium, let's keep in mind that this is in 86 innings. I doubt Tomko's fly ball tendenices (career 1.08 G/F ratio, .95 last year) will play well here for an extended period of time.

Just because some team is dumb enough to pay Jeff Weaver that amount of money doesn't make this a good deal. Weaver, at least, has shown upside at some point in the last eight years, unlike Tomko.

Be honest, do you really think you'll be happy with Tomko come July? Hey, he's got a 4.5 ERA, that's pretty average. Will there ever be a time when you look forward to seeing Tomko on the mound? I doubt it. We just spent even more money (which is becoming less of an issue thanks to McCourt's bottomless pocketbook) on a pitcher who is mediocre at best. Isn't that what non-roster invities are for?

Well, can't say Tomko would be my first choice, but he's better than nothin' and comes semi-cheap and for a short contract. For the same amount of money I would have rather had Jason Johnson, but oh well.

Isn't Tomko a stubborn jerk who angers teammates and does not listen to coaching? I am sure him, Kent, and ODP will not have any problems. I do not like Tomko, but at least we are not paying much.

Anyone hear the Colletti interview on Tuesday with Gary Miller (and DeMarco Farr)?

They asked him about pitching and he said that he was "in contact with three or four pitchers, some he knew, some he didn't..." When he said that, the first name that popped into my head was Tomko.

Now I'm sorry it did.

Just read the Henson article...Do not sign Millwood, do not sign anymore pitchers, and pleaaaaaaase do not send Jackson and Billingsley to Vegas. What are these people thinking? I hope this is just wrong information.

Look on the bright side...at least you have a replacement for Mrs. Lima.

*NSFW*
http://www.mycenterfolds.net/playmates/julia-schultz/

Here's my two cents... a lot of repeating of stuff for people on this site, but a little summary for the holidays and a hypothetical roster that I constructed for your DT pleasure.... :)

1) We have a perfectly serviceable platoon duo of Choi/Saenz at first base. Signing Nomar to a deal effectively negates this duo that combined for 30 HR/104 RBIs. I doubt that Nomar will be able to match this production. As a LF, he's a good sign but there is no upgrade at 1B. In fact, I'd even argue that Nomar has less upside than the Hee Seop. Of course, I'm biased, but Hee Seop's a 3rd year big leaguer who's 26 with no injury history whereas Nomar's 32 coming off of 2 injury-plagued seasons and makes Drew look like a healthy player.

2) We replaced Milton Bradley with Kenny Lofton. This is not an upgrade at all. While Lofton won't have the same off-the-field antics, we actually lost talent at the CF spot.

3) We had a perfectly good 3B situation with Willy Aybar and perhaps could have signed Nomar to play there instead. While Mueller isn't a bad choice, there's no reason to have done given him the deal if we're dealing with scarce money.

4) Why sign Furcal for $13 mill a year when you could plug Antonio Perez at SS? Signing Furcal effectively blocks Joel Guzman or forces the Dodgers to start playing him in the OF.
5) Sandy Alomar??? What is he, 49 years old?

Basically, my gripe with all these signings... Alomar, Furcal, Mueller, Lofton, Nomar.... is that these guys are supposedly "proven" commodities. In essence we are paying a big premium for past success. The commonalities in these signings are that they are short-term deals, so we don't lose our current prospects, but the opportunity cost of signing these Type A and B free agents is that we lose future draft picks.

What would GM Park have done? Here's what I'd have done to construct the 2006 Dodger roster...

C - Navarro/Martin platoon - I'd give both youngsters a start at the big league level and see which one, or both excel. Absolutely no need to sign a "veteran" catcher to handle the pitching staff- Cost: (~$750,000)

1B - Choi/Saenz platoon - 30 HR/104 RBI... that's certainly more than adequate. Leave as is - Cost (~$1.725 million)

2B - Jeff Kent - I'd leave him there, but I'd be more than willing to package him in a deal if a front-line starter was involved. (~$9 million)

SS - Rich Aurilia - (~$2.5-3 million) 1 year deal $3 million, or 2 year, $5 million

3B - Nomar Garciaparra - Put Nomar where he is better positioned to help the Dodgers (~$6 million)

RF - JD Drew ($11 million) can't do anything there... if he's healthy, he's the Dodgers best player

CF - Kenny Lofton ($3.85 million) not a bad deal actually.... good filler... I'd have him leadoff over Furcal in the current lineup... higher OBP

LF - Brian Giles -- ($12.5-13.33 million) Coletti reportedly offered Giles a 3 year deal $34.5 million -- especially with the lack of quality OFs on the FA, I would have made a 3 year, $40 or 4 year, $50 million deal... Giles would have been my NUMBER 1 PRIORITY! I think Coletti blew it by not getting Giles... my goal would have been to get the wheels rolling to make a play to get his little bro, Marcus in '07/'08....

SP
1) Brad Penny ($5.5 million)
2) Derek Lowe ($9 million)
3) Kevin Millwood ($11-12 million) -- I'd ink Millwood to a 3 year ($12 mill) or 4 year ($11 mill) contract
4) Odalis Perez ($7.25 million)
5) D.J. Houlton/Chad Billingsley (~$325,000) Give the young Double-AA stud a shot, and if he falters in spring training and Houlton does decently, start Billingsley in AAA and put Houlton in long-relief/spot start role

Bullpen
1) Eric Gagne ($10 mill)
2) Duaner Sanchez ($375,000)
3) Yhency Brazoban ($340,000)
*4) Franquelis Osoria ($325,000)... if Billingsley gets sent to AAA
5) Jonathan Broxton ($320,000)
6) Hong-Chih Kuo ($320,000)

Bench
1) Olmedo Saenz -- already factored in as Choi's platoon partner
2) Jose Cruz, 4th OF ($2.9 million)
3) Ricky Ledee, LF PH ($1.5 million)
4) Willy Aybar, SS ($325,000) - split time at SS between him and Perez
5) Martin/Navarro, catching platoon
6) Antonio Perez, IF (~$325,000)

Any comments about this purely hypothetical lineup? What'd my budget come out to compared to Colleti's?

This is good news if the intent is to make Tomko a 5th starter, and still pursue a front-liner like Millwood. Maybe even the overpriced Weaver could make sense since the rotation would have 5 experienced, proven starters ranging in ERA from 3.75 - 4.50. Which beats having the 5th SP with a 5.00- 5.50 ERA.
This is bad news if Tomko is being brought in as a 4th starter and the intent is to use Houlton as 5th SP or rush Billingsley or Jackson into that role. Tomko would be a lousy substitute for Jeff Weaver.
Over past 2 yrs. Weaver has pitched 444 innings to Tomko's 384. Even though their ERA's are fairly close (4.10 Weaver, 4.22 Tomko), this is because Weaver was frequently left in too long to absorb runs after
at tail end of strong performances. The peripherals show the quality difference between Weaver and Tomko over past 2yrs to be substantial.
Weaver's WHIP = 1.23 to Tomko's 1.35.
Weaver's K/9 = 6.2 to Tomko's 5.2
Weaver's BB/9 = 2.2 to Tomko's 2.8
Weaver's HR's/9 = 1.1 to Tomko's .9 (but Weaver pitched in a more HR-friendly home park)
If this as good as a starting pitching acquisition gets, then this rotation isn't realistically any better than last yr's mediocre one. Whatever improvements Odalis might make would be cancelled in the downgrade from Weaver to Tomko.

71 -- 86 innings is not that small a sample size. It is also well-known that historically, over decades, some visiting pitchers have really LOVED pitching at Dodger Stadium, because the mound is a little higher than most and is sloped a little differently. If Tomko is one of those guys, great. And I realize that a lot of statheads throw around the term "flyball pitcher" like it is dirty, but Dodger Stadium is not the Ballpark at Arlington or Coors Field. Dodger Stadium is pretty forgiving even for flyball pitchers, especially in night games.

Yes, the market value of Weaver is relevent to the issue of whether we got a good deal for Tomko. Market context is always relevent, because deals are not made in a vacuum. Both Weaver and Tomko are far enough in their careers that it is probably not sensible to be talking about "upside" for either man. They are what they are at this point, and both pitchers are inconsistent, sometimes looking dominant, sometimes looking horrible. That is what you expect from a #4 starter, and that is what we were shopping for. The thing about Weaver is that he is not going to be paid like a mere #4 starter.

Will I be happy with Tomko come July? Was anybody happy with Weaver in July, the last two years? Two years in a row Weaver started the season pitching like garbage and continuing like that for months, only to finish strong. We'll see what the pattern is with Tomko. I think what is important is that at the end of September I expect to be about as happy with Tomko as I have been with Weaver at the end of September the last two years. Colletti's task was to replace Weaver, and he did it with a guy who will make substantially less than Weaver, has few guaranteed years than Weaver was demanding, and we get two premium draft picks by letting Weaver go and replacing him with a reasonable facsimile of him. That's win, win, win, on three counts.

This Weaver-Tomko comparison is somewhat bizarre. They've got similar walk rates and are both Fly Ball-ish pitchers. Weaver's 2005 was way, way better, as he took his walk rate down considerably; however, that was masked by a high HR total, which is an aberration (meanwhile, Tomko's benefited from SBC, an extreme anti-HR ballpark). The real difference between these two is that Weaver tosses many more strikeouts.

Weaver's also three years younger with a better injury history, so there's no question that he's the better pitcher. The difference between these two is about .5-.8 runs per 9, with Weaver being on the right side of league average and Tomko on the wrong. So over the course of a season the difference is ~10-18 runs. Going $4.4m on Tomko versus going $8m on Weaver is roughly a tossup. Two Tomkos is better than one Weaver, but one Weaver and one Houlton could be worth it relative to one Tomko and one Houlton, though taking on a four-year contract is certainly risky. The flip side of that, though, is that signing Weaver to a four-year deal can relatively easily be parlayed into a good trade with a little fortuity; he's fairly bound to have an ERA in the low three's early in the contract if he stays at Dodger Stadium. That assumes that Colletti knows how to get good trade value.

Tomko is certainly not "a reasonable facsimile" of Weaver. It is true that getting the Weaver picks would be helpful; then again, don't be too surprised if Colletti signs some arb-offered FA and trades Odalis Perez, just to make your head spin.

Moreover, Tomko at 1 year, $3.5m is about right, and $4.5m is all right given the market. But also shelling out over $4m for the age 34 season of a below-average pitcher is pretty lame with a system as stocked as the Dodgers and with Penny, Perez, and Lowe already under contract with, hopefully, an influx of pitching prospects making their way to the majors. It's not giving $15m to Magglio Ordonez bad, but it's certainly questionable, and you wonder if Colletti will add anyone within five years of their peak age, other than Furcal (and, I suppose, Ethier).

I'd rather give the job to Billz, than spend 4.5 mils on Brett Tomko.

But I cant really fault this deal that much. I'm just wondering if the D