Ahhhh... Chadingsley finally called up. Can we go with a three man rotation? :)
vr, Xei

Thank goodness we have those brilliant baseball minds running the Dodgers.

If he doesnt do so hot, you guys have to promise me you wont turn on him.

Can we continue the line drive percentage conversation here? That Hardball Times article referenced in the last thread was interesting, but it stilled didn't explain what i was looking for. How do they calculate line-drive percentage?

Does someone watch the game and count the amount of line drives the players hit?

4- Ugh, stilled, sorry.

really man, we need somebody ANYBODY!! :o)

I just am hoping he shows good control. If he does that I think he will be fine.

What is it about SD?? that we can't win??

4 - Per the linked article in the linked article (also from HT):

"Baseball Info Solutions track every single batted ball in every game. If a batted ball results in an official plate appearance (that is, a hit or an out), they place the batted ball in one of three buckets: groundballs, flyballs and line drives..."

www.baseballinfosolutions.com

3. Let's try to think positive. My prediction for his first outing.

IP: 6
ER: 2
K: 6
BB: 2
H: 5
W: 1-0

3- I promise not to turn on him any more than you've turned on JtD.

11

you've mistaken me with someone else, I have not turned on JtD!

If Josh Johnson is any comparison, Billingsley should be pretty good.

3 Wasn't around during the game but when I was driving home and heard Odalis was pitching after Seo (did not know about the injury), I thought something like this must be up, also Vegas started one of their relievers during tonight's win (LaRoche, now homered in 4 straight games).

Don't worry Nate, we won't turn but let's hope Chad and Broxton shutting down the Friars.

If Chad gives us at least 5 innings and keeps us in the game (losing by no more than 3 runs), I'll be very satisfied. We have hard time getting even 4 innings from Tomko, Perez, or Seo.

I predict 5 innings, 5 Hits, 2 Runs.

YESSSSSS!

And Nate, I won't turn on him if he struggles, but I don't think he will, SD is not a great offense, and they've never seen him before. And he proved against the angels, he can shut down mediocre offenses.

Poor Brad Penny. Suddenly, no one is excited to his start.

9-

Doesn't this seem dangerously similar to the same sort of thinking that goes on in traditional baseball, though?

I mean, the guy who decides whether something is a line drive has to differentiate using only his eyes. So, isn't it based on a subjective interpretation rather than objective one?

What constitutes a line drive and what doesn't?

16-

Your exuberance broke the thread.

*excited to see

I'm a little nervous bringing up Bills, but this is natural for an old fan who has seen so many #1 type pitchers fail the D's. But actually, none of them has made it in good shape through triple AAA. And most pitchers ERA is better in the Majors than the PCL.
So its just my own neurosis.
And Lord. Penny and Lowe should pitch every 5th day without fail. I had to argue with my Grandfather, who said a starter should start every fourth day or he would lose his edge and give up a run in the early innings.
Expansion shows up nowhere as much as in good Starters. Latin America and Asia have expanded the pool of position players far more than pitchers.

The only turning there will be is against the Dodgers if they start yanking him around. He's up, he's in, Perez sucks. It's over. The rubicon is crossed.

But I have a strange feeling that Perez is going to pitch four Erickson-like scoreless innings, there will be a mad rush to get him back into the rotation, a declaration far-and-wide that The Real OP is "back," that he worked really hard at the "mental part of the game," and all the other self-delusions that come with having already burnt the money to the crisp years ago but still trying to salvage what's left on one's investment, as if finishing 84-78 was worth it.

It's probably too much to ask Grittle to skip Sele's turn in the rotation and have Billingsley pitch on Tuesday. Just asking.

I'd still rather have OP start than Brett Tomko.

Selfishly, I wish they'd called him up to pitch Friday so I could go to Oakland to see him. But this makes sense of course, to give Tomko an extra day.

Have to assume he'll be here to stay for awhile - this isn't a one-fer. I'd read the Inside the Dodgers story but we seem to be overloading its server at the moment.

Less important: do the 51s call up someone from Jax to replace him?

And I'd rather have Sele pitch than OP. But these are difficult, painful choices.

Alright, everybody's on Plaschke duty, till we get to comment 61.

Short, one sentence paragraphs.

The other parts that make Plaschke Plaschke are optional.

I agree.

Penny, Lowe, Sele, Billingsley, OP is the order I'd have. Sele deserves two more starts to prove if his time is done.

Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Broxton, then who cares.

Yes I know Broxton likes pitching in the bullpen. I don't care.

penny, lowe, billingsley, elbert, kershaw.

I know Elbert hasnt pitched above A ball and Kershaw hasnt pitched professionaly yet, but who cares.

laroche in his last 153ABs

366/478/608 9hr 29bb 17k

thoughts?

I've contacted Ken to try to get the site width fixed. But it's late, so I don't know when he'll respond.

If its the anything goes rotation:

Penny, Lowe, Broxton, Billz, Orenduff

32 - As D4P would say ... never mind.

33

I think Orenduff is still hurt.

And the A's dodge another young stud pitcher. Yippee!

Three cheers for Ken! Plaschke Duty is suspended.

Penny Lowe Billingsley (Miller/Broxton combo!) Hochevar

I know Elbert hasnt pitched above A ball and Kershaw hasnt pitched professionaly yet, but who cares.

You think you're kidding, but you're not.

Back on the topic of Riley- I'm just not a fan of his. I wouldn't call him one of the elite coaches in basketball. I guess he is a good coach, but he has a huge ego. Phil Jackson, is not a coach. He's paid to wear a nice suit and meditate on the bench, while he completely ignores that a game of basketball is being played on the court. Stick Larry Brown in the same situations and he'd have 9 rings too, maybe 10.

I hate Dodger Talk. One guy wants to trade Werth (can't be done) and Matt Kemp for Dontrelle Willis. He's comparing Kemp to Jason Romano. "Pitchers will figure him out, get good value for him now, etc."

Apparently Izturis is now the heart and soul of the Dodgers too. The guy thought that we traded Romano for Werth.

22. Perez was quoted on dodgers.com last year saying he might be the best pitcher in baseball when healthy.....(fill in punch line of choice here)...

Financially set for life, no incentive, no hunger, apparently pathetic mental game, doesn't even seem to care much...his few strong starts might argue he hasn't lost his physical ability. But seems to have lost everything else

I think Kershaw could take down teams like the Royals and Mariners right now.

Financially set for life, no incentive, no hunger, apparently pathetic mental game, doesn't even seem to care much
Hate the guy for stinking up the joint, but there's no way of knowing whether he cares or not. You don't know the guy. Your argument is the same one that people use to call JD Drew a wimp and David Eckstein a scrapper. Drew is a bum because he doesn't play when he's injured and he tries to get hit by pitches on the wrist, yet Gagne's a gamer when he goes out there and pitches in pain, even though it makes things worse in the longrun.

Now that Ortiz has been DFA, is Perez the most expensive mop up pitcher.

No pitches, hangs everything, throws 75, 7+ ERA, WHIP of almost 2, 5 K/9 rate, fat tub of goo, shredded arm.

Maybe we should call up Mark Alexander and see how he does.

his numbers this year:

30IP 18H 3ER 2HR 9bb 44K .90ERA

What about my favorite Sun, Casey Hoorelbeke? Not just because he's doing well down there (pitcher of the month for the org.) but just because I like saying his name. And I want to hear Rick Monday try to say it correctly twice in a row. This would be worth a thousand Odalises.

Odalisi?

So nobody else saw Geoff Geary live the dream in the top of the 9th tonight?

Also it's official, Dave Wright is the new Scott Rolen.

AND Steve's favorite shortstop (non-NL West) hit two homers in this one! What a fun ballgame to watch!!

http://tinyurl.com/ehuaq

And good luck with this Billingsley kid. Funny how he's getting the call as Soriano is closing in on the league lead in HRs...

47 Since 2005 Hoorelbeke has thrown 120.2 innings and not given up a homer. He has a pretty poor K/BB ration although this year he is much better.

44. Yes. He's holding the spot open for Matt Clement though. Has Odalis Perez been on the DL yet this year? Usually when a guy is struggling as much as him, they'll just put him on the DL. Making OP a mop up guy instead of just DL'ing him seems to be the ultimate disrespect.

Despite Gio and Kelly's Las Vegas vacation, I think it is more likely that Miller comes up only because the Dodgers only have so many players they can put on the 60 day DL.

Navarro should look into some short-term Vegas housing, according to the LA Times, he's going to be optioned after his rehab assignment.

47 If it were in Greek, as it could easily be from the form, the plural would be "Odaleis". Of course it's not Greek (so far as I know), but it was fun.

Drove down to San Diego to catch Chan Ho against the Dodgers... he looked pretty sharp. The Dodgers should at least consider a one-year deal with Park next year if he'll accept Tomko money and we can rid ourselves of Tomko.

Padres fans must love Koreans - Chan Ho for doing so well, and Jae Seo for being so generous....

Billingsley -- a not-tall RHP who throws in the mid-90's and has been hailed as one of the top pitching prospects in the game -- getting the call to the majors after pitching a half season at age 21 in the Pacific Coast League evokes a sense of deja vu. In 2003, Rich Harden -- a not-tall RHP who threw in the mid-90's and was hailed as one of the top pitching prospects in the game -- got the call to the majors after pitching a half season at age 21 in the Pacific Coast League.

Before going to the the majors to pitch for the A's, these were Harden's 2003 numbers in the PCL:

16 G's, 88.2 IP, 72 H's, 35 BB's, 91 K's, 3.15 ERA

These are Billingsley's numbers in the PCL so far this year:

13 G's, 70.2 IP, 57 H's, 32 BB's, 78 K's, 3.95 ERA

In comparing Harden and Billingsley's numbers in the PCL, it should be kept in mind that there is a pretty big difference between what was Harden's home park and Billingsley's home park. Harden pitched his home games in Sacramento, which is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the PCL and had a park factor of 974 in 2003. Billingsley has of course been pitching his home games in Las Vegas, which last year had a park factor of 1089.

Perhaps Harden's major league numbers in 2003 can give us a rough idea of what we might see from Billingsley if he remains the rest of the season with the Dodgers:

15 G's, 74.2 IP, 72 H's, 40 BB's, 67 K's, 4.46 ERA

Don't get discouraged if Billingsley has problems. Not so tall right handers at the age of 21 sometimes pitch poorly. Greg Maddux went 6-14 with a 5.61 ERA and the almighty Walter Johnson had a 12-25 record at the age of 21 in 1909.

55

I don't suppose we could disinter Mr. Johnson and send him to Cleveland to save the Indians season?

55 Johnson's ERA was 2.22 that year. The league ERA was 2.42 so it wasn't like Johnson was getting pounded.

The 1909 Senators won a grand total of 42 in 1909. To put that in perspective, the Dodgers are near that win total at the halfway point. If Bills pitches like Johnson did in 1909 (slightly better than league average), I think he will be just fine.

If Billingsley pitches like Johnson did in 1909, he'll be Rookie of the Year, as long as he takes the precaution of pulling a Tonya Harding on Kemp's legs.

So no pressure, kid. All you've gotta do is pitch like Walter Johnson.

I don't ever remember so many useless starting pitchers on the Dodgers staff, who cannot even get out of the first inning w/o getting bombed.

Usually we have an Ashby here and an Erickson there. But this year we have the combo of Seo/Tomko/Perez/and now Sele, who seems to be just an Erickson in disguise. I don't think a fresh and green Billingsley is the answer, hope I'm wrong. Colletti needs to get a proven veteran to supplement Penny and Lowe.

So, who's gonna be at the game taking pictures?

Reason #629975 why the world was cooler when I was a kid than it is now. Evel Knievel was a way cooler huckster than David Blaine.

Fun RGC up at the Griddle.

53

agreed, he pitches well in Dodger Stadium from what I remember

61

dumb question SamDC but what time is it out there?

10 am Eastern.

59

Let's not give up on Sele that quick, if it wasn't for errors we woulda been in that game

61
Thanks, Sam. Can't go wrong with Joe DiMaggio, Bob Feller, and Babe Ruth.

And don't forget Jeff Heath!

I was going to admit in my post that I'd never heard of Jeff Heath, but I've been getting ragged on all morning at work and I didn't really have the heat. But that's a great factoid.

Can't imagine why they'd dump on me. It's not like I sit around reading the internet all day.

grrr . . . have the heart.

Heat ...
Heart ...

They could both work!

You gotta have heart...

65. There seems to be considerable negative sentiment on Sele. Why? History says he may implode. He hasn't yet.

Could be if he hadn't been rested or whatever so long he'd have been sharper. Walked 5 but only 1 earned run. And 0 balls left the yard.

Sele ERA now 2.32. Likely to go up? Yeah. But Sele less likely to have problems with his mental game than some. Mental game often underrated in sports, but you rarely find champions without a strong one.

Jeff Heath also played an ugly little role in baseball's integration drama. He was a teammate of Willard Brown, who in 1947 hit the first ever AL home run by an African American player. Brown hit the homer using Heath's bat because his own bats had not yet arrived from the Negro Leagues.

When Brown got back to the dugout, instead of giving him a pat on the back, the indignant Heath grabbed his bat back and smashed it to smithereens.

Just another example of a player finally admitting he is not feeling right, note that this is a similar problem as Gagne:

The Braves put the much-maligned reliever on the disabled list because of a nerve problem that has caused numbness in the two outside fingers of his right hand.

The diagnosis Tuesday was ulnar neuritis, and Reitsma will return to Atlanta for more tests today.

"Maybe I waited a little too long to say something," Reitsma said. "I've had it off and on for a while now. I can't really tough it out anymore. I finally convinced myself that enough is enough.

"The velocity has been there, but I can't really tell where the ball is going. You can't pitch like that."

"Absolutely [it has affected him]," Braves manager Bobby Cox. "If you have no feeling, how can you know where the ball will end up?"

http://tinyurl.com/m5l98

I'm pretty new here and don't know how to make number of post being responded to linkable? How-to appreciated.

74 Just put the post number in brackets. []

Good Morning Gents' - Is the Aybar Fan Club here this morning? Or do they actually have jobs and contribute to society?

74

your name is kind of offensive to me for some reason :o)

it will be interesting to see Billingsley pitch thursday.

78 That is the understatement of the year.

Since Billingsley is coming up, lets see some predictions for his performance.

Mine..

6IP, 7 Hits, 4 Ks, 2 BBs, 1 HR, 5 ER, and a Loss.

billingsley will do well (if he is able to locate his pitches).

the rookie-dodger magic is still in effect for 2006

79

fair enough

6IP, 7 Hits, 4 Ks, 2 BBs, 1 HR, 5 ER, and a Loss.

Mine are

6IP, 4 HITS, 8 ks, 4 BBs 0 HR, 2 ER & a Win

what do you think?

5 IP, 7 Hits, 3 runs (2 earned if Furcal is playing), 5 K's, 1 BB, no decision. That's it, that's the list, er, line.

81 A Good line, after all, we are just speculating. I do not think he will strike out eight batters though.

If you got to Baseball Prospectus and study his minor league numbers and then look at his MLB conversion numbers, I do not see him being a 9.0 K per 9 innings pitched type guy. BP converted his current performance at Las Vegas as 7.3 MLB strike-outs per 9. Either way, BP is not perfect either, they just take HIGHLY educated guesses.

As stated in earlier discussions, he NEEDS to cut down on his number of pitches thrown and especially the number of walks he dishes out.

[77.] Did you go to the University of Maryland?

[76.] Who says you can't be here and be a productive member of society?

it'll be interesting to watch who comes close to the prediction.

83 If I had time, I would collect the predictions and see who hits closest.

83

the only reason I lean on 8 K's is because the ball players don't know his style of pitch, but I see your point.

86

I already did

87 I would agree that his first few starts should exceed expectations, the more I think about the situation.

I just do not expect a Jered Weaver, Zack Duke, or Felix Hernandez type jump out off the minor leagues.

Pitching at PETCO, he might be able to pull off a gem. Then again, if the Dodger defense plays the way they played last night, he could be in for a long night.

Hey Greg Brock. It's Greg Brock's birthday. Click over to 6-4-2 (link at right) for more.

90 Greg Brock, my original prospect flame out. Maybe that is why I am so suspicious with prospects. I still remember my 8 year old psyche being ruined when he did not pan out.

Not that I want this to happen to Kershaw, but wasn't there at least one pitcher who pitched in the majors the same season he was drafted?

{59} And yet LA team ERA 5th in majors. Likely top 2-3 without all the woofer starts.

Sele may deserve to join your list later. Right now no.

I hope Billz does good bc if he doesnt, I think Ned may decide to start trading prospects for any 4.50 (Quality Start) hurler he can find, which would be a bad move.

Maybe y'all could ask Baseball America's Jim Callis for his opinion on Billingsley - live chat today at 11.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=12010

I'll also think if there's ever a place for a rookie to break in, its at Petco and against the Padres. Easy park to pitch in against a lineup that no one fears.

6IP, 4 HITS, 8 ks, 4 BBs 0 HR, 2 ER & a Win

I'm not sure if Billingsley will be allowed to throw that many pitches that would allow him to K8 and BB4.

I'll predict 5IP 4H 5Ks 3BBs 3ER & a Loss (Chris Young's been great lately). 95 pitches in 5ip.

93 still in bracket school...going by preview may have it right....FWIW,cap brackets don't get it. {}, no [], yes

79, 82

I want to play.

Billingsly:
6IP 4H 6K 2B 0HR 1ER and a Win on 88 pitches. Little pulls him a tad early to give him a great start under his belt.

This line is based on the fact that I failed to land Billingsley on my fantasy team, although I have a trade offer outstanding.

90- Thanks, Sam. I saw that this morning, and had a hearty chuckle. Go me, it's my birthday, I stunk, it's my birthday. And to think, I almost picked Franklin Stubbs as my handle instead, and I got a mention of both over at 6-4-2.

And Mighty Carthage goes up on the House of Saud, 1-nil.

92 - Can't think of any high-schoolers who have done so, but I believe David Aardsma and Ryan Wagner are two who have done so recently out of college.

CBillz goes 5 IP, 7 hits, 3 BB's, 4K's, 3 ER.

Upon further review, it looks like Aardsma had to wait a year. Wagner made it though.

99

I like yours the most (I already added it to my list of prodictions)

103. Thanks. I'm thinking maybe Clyde Wright from years ago? I will research...

Didn't reliever Craig Hansen (drafted from St Johns in first round) do it for the Red Sox last year too? He did pitch in the minors a bit during the year but then got the call-up.

102 David Clyde was the #1 overall pick in 1973 for the Rangers and pitched in the bigs that year.

His debut was great, not so much the rest of his career if I remember correctly.

104 - Thanks.

The last time I felt this excited about an upcoming game was when Kemp debuted. This season has been great!

I am going to Petco tomorrow afternoon so I am pleased with the developments. The ball has actually been jumping at Petco as of late so I was not looking forward to seeing Tomko pitch there.

109 This year has been exciting, even if the Dodgers do not make the playoffs, the youngsters are making it fun.

Where do the Dodgers go from here? If Bills pans out, great, if not, we really need a starting pitchers. The minor league system has produced some good position players, but pitching seems short.

R.

5 IP
3 Hits
1 ERA
3 Walks
4 K's

100 Back in 1985, there was quite a controversy over whether the Dodgers should keep Brock or Sid Bream, another highly-touted first baseman in their minor league system. A lot of fans were angry when the Dodgers decided to ship Bream off to Pittsburgh.

Now we know the truth: Both Brock and Bream were below average. It didn't matter which one they traded.

It's the memories of Dodger prospect hype in the early 80s that has some people (like me) nervous about the latest round of "can't-miss" prospects.

i'm going to tonight's game. i almost wish i were going to tomorrow's instead, but what can ya do. i've never been to PETCO before.. any recommendations?

113 I agree! Joel Guzman, in my opinion, will be the lemon of the bunch....think Karim Garcia.

Matt Kemp has the chance to be an above average player. Ethier I see as an average or 4th outfielder type.

I have no feel for Bills.

Martin is the new Mike S...

[106] he's still in pawtucket, no? i saw him pitch last month.

In 1978 the A's drafted Mike Morgan who was 18 at the time and he pitched his 1st game in the majors on 6/11, 5 days after he was drafted. I'm not sure if he was drafted out HS or JC but since he was 18 I'm assuming it was HS.

116 Pawtucket now, was up with the Bo' Soxs in late 2005.

It's better to sit along the third base side at PETCO than the first base side as there are funny angles in the park.

Parking is tricky since the park is not in the middle of an enormous parking lot like Qualcomm was.

Off topic: I am giving up all hope for a civilized society after observing that the current CNN.com lead story starts with:

A couple of Massachusetts construction types...

"Construction types"?? Is it really too hard to use the word "customer"?

I guess I have to update my not so catchy litle saying. How about... "Penny, Lowe and Chad, then pray the other two aren't bad!"
vr, Xei

Did you know that the FIFA website was referring to injured Saudi star Mohammed Al Anbar, as "The Matt Kemp of the Desert"?

I can't believe what Colletti has done to our minor league system. At this pace the pipeline is going to be empty and we will no longer be rated one of the top minor league systems in all of MLB. j/k
vr, Xei

113 I understand being weary of the "can't miss" tag based on guys like Brock, Ashley, etc.

What I don't understand is when folks are weary of the player development system. The guys that "helped" produce the busts of the past aren't the same guys running the show now.

Besides, I think we magnify the busts more than we should. The system that produced the busts also produced Fernando, Bulldog, the Martinez bros, Guerrero (the Pedro variety), Scioscia, Piazza, Karros, Konerko, Wetteland, etc (I know I'm leaving some out).

124 Pedro Guerrero was a product of the Cleveland Indians farm system.

[121] "penny, lowe, and billz, and then just pop some pills".

[119] i was thinking of sitting in the right field corner; i think the view of home plate is pretty good from there because of the angle. as far as parking goes, i know there are some private lots on side streets, but those are like $15.

121 "Penny, Lowe, Billz, then run for the hills!"?

120 Glad to know that "Paris Hilton Is Enjoying the Sigle Life." Thank you CNN.

125
Hardly, we traded for him when he was a pup. He spent all of one year at the age of 17 in the Indian organization.

126 - I think you can park at the convention center for $10.

125-
Lasorda: What are you thinking on the field?
Guerrero: Don't hit to me
Lasorda: Okay, what's the second thing?
Guerrero: Don't hit it to Sax

129 I stand corrected

128 Do you not just LOVE the mainstream media?

Pedro is another example of power developing as a player matures. He had all of 38 home runs in 6 Minor league seasons by the age of 22. At the age of 23 he put it all together and the rest is Dodger history.

My daily, "You Know the World is In Trouble", news link for the day...

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060613/D8I7ADB81.html

113 - Actually, neither Bream not Brock was below average.
Career OPS+
Bream - 107
Brock - 105

113 But Bream did keep Bonds out of the world series with that slide.

135 Yeah, they were a bit above average, but neither of them was Steve Garvey and Brock's defense was pretty poor, according to RATE2.

I am going here to give poster "Greg Brock" further props for the current leader in the "Best World Cup Comment" category:

33. Greg Brock
I just want to see Italy vs. Tunisia...Punic War IV...This time it's personal.

[131] lol, and people say pedro wasn't a smart guy.

[130] ah, thanks!

I stood next to Guerrero in a Dodger Stadium elevator once. I couldn't believe how big he looked. All muscle.

124
What, Todd Hollandsworth or Steve Sax aren't worth mentioning:)

Konerko

I think it was because of that one era when we were moving from the Garvey/Lopes/Russel/Cey stage and the kids like Candido Maldonado, Brock, Stubbs, Gonzales, Dave Anderson, even Mike Marshall failed to live upto expectations and then the last 5 years not counting 2006 that have warped peoples opinions.

[134] "hellooooo, nurse!" :)

142 - That's just how Hawking "rolls", yo.

142 That reminds me of the Sunshine Boys. "Oh Nursey!!"

140 I had Pedro give me a ride in his taxi cab when I was in the Dominican Republic two years ago.

131

LOL

Finally figured out what to do with Izturis:
1. Play him at shortstop, hitting eighth.
2. Send Furcal back to Atlanta with a note pinned to his jacket, offering to pay one third of his salary if they'll take him back. If they want to negotiate, we'll throw in Odalis, pay one third of his salary too. If we need a clincher, we throw in Carter, Hamulack, and Seo.
3. The time has come to move Lofton to left field. Trades available.

[145] pedro drives a taxi?

142 I actually think that was his daughter.... OK, so that link was an excuse to showcase the chick.

148 Sadly enough, yes he does. My childhood hero, drives a taxi in the D.R...

Did any of you catch the Nomar radio interview on MLB.Com? (kind of funny check it out)

43 Didn't see this until now. I respect you and your posts. But in response, he said, with a friendly :)==

1) No, I don't know Perez. Do you?

2) I don't hate him, period. I wish he would or could return to the 15-10, 3.00 ERA, 40 less hits than IP form of '02.

3) But he has progressively slipped since. Some of it may be, even probably is injury-related. But in my admittedly limited observation, his attitude and intangible game have gone markedly south. This spring he said he had no physical issues. IMO, Colletti has been trying to move him for more than just salary reasons. As always, there may be things involved that we don't know.

4) Perez does seem to care, about himself or his image. See recent flap about his not doing chartity work any longer since he gets no recognition for it. But some props for at least making an effort for charity. Lots of very fortunate folks in many walks of life don't make one at all.

5) My comments were Perez-specific. I didn't mention Drew, Eckstein, or Gagne and didn't and wouldn't make false arguments like the ones you refer to.

Best, twerp

149

I don't think he can do the nasty, can he?

I like the idea of the posters that mentioned giving Alexander (0.90 WHIP in 30 IP at Jax) and/or Hoorelbeke (0.79 WHIP in 38 IP at Jax) a shot to come up and help out the bullpen if need be, especially when I realized that both of these guys are 26 years old (not exactly young pups).

As far as the starters go.........after reading Jon's post a few days ago, I'm pretty convinced that OP still has the most upside out of the (Sele/Perez/Seo/Tomko) foursome......if Grady/Ned show a little more confidence in him, I think it would serve them well in the long term. I'm really hoping that Billz can come in and help because I'd feel much more comfortable only having to worry about that previously mentioned foursome filling the last 2 spots in the rotation as opposed to the last 3 spots.

BTW, even though it was a controversial signing at the time, I'm really glad Depo signed Lowe to that deal, he's definitely been worth the money so far (although one could argue that he cancelled out that good move with the bad OP signing).

150 That's sad about Pedro. Where did all his money go?

My line for tomorrow:
5IP 5H 6K 2B 0HR 2ER and a No-decision (thanks, Hamulack).

154 Any upside remaining in OP is canceled out by his demeanor. I wish he were driving a cab in D.R.

141 How could I forget about Sax or Hollandsworth?

I understand that the jaded feeling. I think most fans have suffered from it (mostly from the Fox-Malone era). I just think that Logan White, Terry Collins, and the rest of the minor league guys shouldn't get knocked because guys like Brock didn't pan out 20 years ago.

155

I think he was joking.

As far as Izturis......either get rid of Ramon Martinez and have Izzy take his spot as the super util guy, or trade him. There are no other options at this point. They can't bench Kent, Furcal or Aybar in order to give Izturis a full-time job and his bat just wouldn't be valuable in the OF.

From a commenter at a Nationals' chat site:

"Not to re-incite the trade talks, but what about the possibility of a trade for Cesar Izturis? It's not like the Dodgers are using him, with Furcal as their main guy. It's not like we have a decent SS. Granted, it's not like we have prospects, either, but maybe we have something they want? Maybe we can trade them Frank."

157-Please leave me out of this. It's my birthday for goodness sakes.

158 - Probably not, unfortunately.

http://tinyurl.com/9wsq9

"A former major league hitter (Pedro) was acquitted of drug conspiracy charges Tuesday (6/6/2000), after his attorney argued that his low IQ prevented him from understanding that he had agreed to a drug deal."

159 - Ramon may be better than Izturis (lord help us). Izzy has a higher trade value, not to mention salary, as well.

160 - John Patterson? :)

163 - I agree, I think trading Izzy is the more favorable option of the two.

160

gives us armas jr and rauch and izturis is yours.

155 Up his nose?

162

I still don't believe it.

You give me the D-Train...

I give you Navarro, Aybar, and Guzman.

162

he gets a pension no?

FYI... None of the 5 teams in the NL West have a record of under .500 yet none of the teams in the NL West has better than a .500 record in their last 10 games. vr, Xei

According to thebaseballcube.com, Pedro made over $14M in his professional career. That could disappear quickly, especially when a drug habit, pricey legal troubles, and money mismanagement come into play.

168 - Same package, but give me Cabrera instead.

so assuming martin, ethier, broxton, kemp, aybar, kuo and billingsley all use up prospect eligibility, what would your top 10 dodger prospects look like at the end of the season?

The Marlins are not going to trade Miguel Cabrera. He'll be their cornerstone player in two years when they are good again.

You'd have to offer up Billingsley, Kemp, and Navarro before they'd even consider trading Cabrera.

Does anyone have the exact numbers on the baseball pension? I'm just relying on hearsay but I've heard it is incredible and for someone from Pedro's era he should still be able to live like a king in the DR.

173 LaRoche, Guzman, Elbert, Abreu, Hu, Kershaw, Morris, Orenduff, Miller, Loney

Orenduff, LaRoche, Kershaw, DeWitt, and Loney. That's my top five at least.

173
1. Andy LaRoche
2. Joel Guzman
3. Scott Elbert
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Blake DeWitt
6. Greg Miller
7. Chin-Lung Hu
8. Tony Abreu
9. Justin Orenduff
10. James Loney

So can anyone comment as to what extent the Dodgers pitching woes relate to Rick Honeycutt? You figure the talent is there, but there hasnt been any serious improvement with the folks who've been having issues save, uhm, perhaps Kuo.

178

my list would probably look very similar to Eric Enders' list with the notable inclusion of Bryan Morris and kick off Tony Abreu.

174
1. LaRoche
2. Kershaw
3. Elbert
4. Guzman
5. Morris
6. Miller
7. Orenduff
8. Dewitt
9. Abreu
10. Hu/Dejesus/Mattingley

Still pretty good, relative to other teams minor league systems.

174 - Cabrera is up for arbi this year (?). He could be due for maybe an $8M raise. The Marlins entire payroll is about $15M this year.

Not saying they will, but they'd have to consider it, right?

Dang, Nate, she's taken -- from today's chat with the Post's Nationals beat writer, after an earlier comment from this Mets fan that he would be listening to a Nats/Mets game this August during his wedding . . .

No need to hide it from my wife...: She's right here with me! We're both dismayed that our big night begins 7:30, while our Mets play your Nationals 7:10 (we chose the day before the schedule came out).

We also have a complete chart, in the shape of Shea Stadium, of the Mets major and minor league system in our kitchen, on post-its, so we can chart player movement and put the day's starting pitcher on the mound.

I'm pretty sure this alone would be enough for me to marry her.

Barry Svrluga: Congratulations. May you play with refrigerator magnets together for many, many moons.

172 Miguel is a bit of a space case, kind of like Manny in Boston.

I would like to have Miguel, only I could sign him up for 5 years, right away.

Even with that, it does not solve our pitching woes.

R.

#1. Guzman
#2. Orenduff
#3. LaRoche
#4. Elbert
#5. Ruggiano
#6. Miller
#7. Alexander
#8. Apodaca
#9. Pedroza
#10.Ketchner (if he comes back healthy)

Dewitt's not on the list unless he turns his year around. Loney, Young I dont consider to be prospects anymore.

Dug up some Suns articles and yea unfortunately, Justin Orenduff is still out with a sore elbow. That cant be good.

185

your list doesnt sit well with me but thats okay, to each their own!

182. He wont get that big of raise. He should, but arbitration cases are really strange. Look at Eric Gagne. He was the best closer ever, went to arbitration, and lost. He only got 5mils and that was coming off the best year ever for a closer.

I think Cabrera might get a raise but it wont be up to 8mils the 1st time. If the Marlins trade him they might as well just move the team. If they keep him, they will be good again in two years. They've accumulated some great prospects.

Is Miller's shoulder concerns, or his apparent relegation to the bullpen that has him so low on everyone's lists?

Both.

189

For me it is a combination of the two, if he remains healthy and can start, he moves up to either #1 or #2, but all of the guys ahead of him are potential stars as well.

175

"Does anyone have the exact numbers on the baseball pension?"

smart posters please reply.

188 - It's not like they're just going to cut him. That trade will net them better prospects than any of the trades to date. And I get the feeling that they see him as a bit of loafer.

He's not exactly David Wright - "Mr. Knight in Shining Armor".

189

on my list (that i havent shown yet) he is lower on it because he is currently in the bullpen. If the Dodgers show this year that they plan on making him a starter again, he goes up higher on the list. But I need to see some 3 inning outings by the end of the year.

I just dont think Navarro, Aybar, Guzman is enough of a package to get Miggy Cabrera. If Colletti pulled off that deal, then we should all call him Midas.

I think Navarro, Aybar, Guzman is package more along the lines of Tony Armas Jr. However, I'd probably only offer two of those guys for Armas.

Did you know that Scot Shields is unselfish because he set up Percival and now Rodriguez? He could be a closer you know!

The Angels announcers are a piece of work I tell ya...

I think Navarro, Aybar, Guzman is package more along the lines of Tony Armas Jr. However, I'd probably only offer two of those guys for Armas.

you are selling that package wayyy short.

196

why don't they make him a starter is what I'm wondering.

185 - I forgot about Ketchner. Does anyone have any news on him (or Derek Thompson for that matter)? Too bad Thompson isn't healthy, he would've really helped out the rotation this season. He was a decent 5th starter during his call up, a lot of people forget about him.

I think Pedroza can break into the top 10 list next season too, I wouldn't put Alexander on the list though, he's too old.

173
I also think LaRoche will use his up. With Kemp showing what he can do after his AA stint they must be looking at using LaRoche since his defense is supposedly also stellar.

Safe to say we won't have the top farm system if everyone you mentioned loses rookie status but it should still be top 10.

JtD
Elbert
Loney
Kershaw
G Miller
Orenduff
Hu
Abreu
Dewitt
Morris

Ruggiano bubbling beneath the surface as my sleeper.

I'm bummed that D Young is not showing more. In the past June/July were his hot months so he could still get it going and be worth a trade chip.

Am I the only one who thinks they could move Kuo to the rotation and bring up G Miller. His arm is proving to be strong again and he looks like he could give us 5/6 innings if he stretches out. He has enough pitches that he should be able to handle the rotation. He was a starter before his surgeries and now that they are two years old I think it is time they get him back into the rotation considering how bad the back end has been.

198 I think alot of folks have wondered that.

I just found it funny because Shields hasn't had a chance to show whether or not he actually wants to leave to be a closer elsewhere.

Calling a guy who isn't FA eligible unselfish because he can't leave it sort of silly to me.

Note: For all I know, Shields is really is unselfish and has no desire to leave.

I've heard interviews of him, seems like a really cool guy

195
Why would you give up so much for a FA pitcher who has been unable to make 20 starts since 2002 due to his many ailments?

if Ruggiano can get that BA up to 285+ and cut down the K's to 20% or less, then I could see justification for sticking him in the back end of the top 10. Same with Pedroza. Both suffer the same faults except Ruggiano is actually a decent defensive outfielder whereas ISOpedroza isnt really.

186 Richard (Los Angeles): Going back to Justin Orenduff...he has not piched in 3 weeks. You know what is wrong with him?

Jim Callis: (2:44 PM ET ) Sore elbow, but last I heard it wasn't a serious concern.

Also Nate I know you have a personal connection but based on this season's performance and Kim Ng singing his praise (along with Hu), I think Abreu has to be there. If Dewitt rebounds and gets that system best swing back, we can discuss who to move down but until then, I think Abreu (who did end up leading the FSL last year in hitting) should rate higher than Dewitt.

202 Yeah, he seems like a cool guy from his interviews.

I just think that if someone offered him a boatload of money to be a closer elsewhere, he would be gone.

Nate would place Wily Aybar at #1, regardless of Major League service time.

Dsfan is Aybar's number one fan not Nate.

207

I am really the president of the Aybar fan club. I don't even think I have mailed in my last 5 months of membership fees.

that said, Aybar would stay the top prospect in baseball even when he wins the MLB triple crown.

I am not really

BTW, whoever said Tony Abreu is an excellent defender, or read a scouting report that he was, the reports are mixed. He had one good defensive season, last year, or atleast before he came up to Jax. In 2004, and in Jax last year, he was below average.

If Pedro Guerrero is driving a taxi, then I like to think he is the equivalent of Tony Banta, and that he is getting nurturing advice from the Dominican Alex Reeger.

211

is that based on minor league defensive metrics?

You guys may think I am being crazy, or joking around, but the man drives a taxi in the D.R.

Maybe he does it for fun.

If Pedro is driving a taxi, I bet it pulls hard to the left.

213 Si, Senor.

www.baseballprospectus.com/minors

Have fun...

do you really trust minor league defensive metrics?

211
The scouting report I got on Abreu from the AFL was "Can be Gold Glove caliber 2nd and play adequate SS"

When I saw him play in the AFL he played both SS and 2nd and the arm he showed at SS was excellent. Hard to use minor league fielding metrics given the unequal conditions of minor league fields. Until they hit the majors I like to listen to the scouts.

215
LOL

From the Jim Callis chat:
Joe (Syracuse): Jim- Do the Dodgers have another young starter in the minors, other than Billingsly, who might be ready to nail down the backend of the rotation? Do you think there is another team desperate enough to take Odalis Perez off their hands? Any team?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:18 PM ET ) Yes they do, in Justin Orenduff. But I'm not sure the Dodgers could even give Odalis Perez away at this point. They may just have to DFA him like the Diamondbacks just did with Russ Ortiz.

When I read my first Baseball Abstract, 1984 I think, I was really surprised that Bill James was touting Pedro as the best hitter in baseball at that time.

Unfortunately his spring training injury in 1986 really curtailed a great career, he along with Piazza remain the two players who hit balls that jumped into the stands.

Now the ball Kemp hit for his second home run was similar but he is certainly a lot more athletic than either Pedro or Piazza.

I loved a line Bill James once had about Pedro when the Dodgers were moving him from RF to 3B, Pedro just went "oh, you mean over there" and then kept hitting.

I trust minor league metrics, for the most part.

I am just trying to figure this out, since I have heard very little about Abreu, aside from what I see on paper. (I play in a VERY deep simulation league, where you NEED to select guys in A or AA to win in the future).

How was the bat Toy?

220 Do you have Abreu in your top ten then?

221 I am not sure if any of you guys have made the comparison, but Kemp reminds me of Raul Mondesi. Maybe Mondy had more range and a better arm, but body wise, the are very similar.

222

simulation league?

Mondi's arm was better IMO

225 Not roto baseball or fantasy, you build a team and you play other drafted teams. The games are run on Diamond Mind Baseball, a simulator which runs on season stats, ball park factors, etc...

Yes, my geek like addiction, sim. baseball. Right now I am in a league that is just starting, with salaries, a draft, etc...If anyone is interested.

Defensive Metrics are hard to measure for minor league ball. Do they honestly see all the games, do they account for lack of field quality and other numerous factors. Too many variables for me to trust defensive metrics for minor leaguers. That said, defensive metrics for major league players arent exactly the end of all either. Although I do like to use them. MGL's UZR was pretty good but he's stopped making those public ever since he was emplyed by the Cardinals.

They have the same tools but Mondesi had huge thighs and a more stocky body. Mondesi had a nice Dodger career but didn't pay attention to his career, I hope Kemp does and that he surpasses Mondesi in production.

Kemp reminds me of Dave Winfield

229 Mondesi was one of the great disappointments in my history as a Dodger fan.

John (LA): Better major leaguer, Kershaw or Elbert?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (3:21 PM ET ) Elbert.

These are all great players to be compared to. Wasn't Winfield also a great HS basketball player?

Elbert is another guy who walks too many batters. Can the Dodgers please find a guy who strikes out batters at a crazy rate and walks next to nobody, please?

Kemp reminds me of Joe DiMaggio..... oh sorry I thought i was Grittle there for a second.

Mondy defined "ten cent head" though. I hope Kemp is more mature.

234

sure, lets go to the HOF pitchers garden over in riverside and harvest them. I heard they are pretty ripe this time of year.

233 Dave Winfield was drafted out of college by four teams in three pro sports: the San Diego Padres (MLB), Atlanta Hawks (NBA), Utah Stars (ABA), and Minnesota Vikings (NFL)

233 Yes, Winfield was a starter on a good University of Minnesota basketball team. They got into a huge brawl with another team that made the cover of SI as I recall. It was a big deal at the time, violence in sports and all that.

232

Im surprised Callis said Elbert. I suspect that is because of the lack of professional data on Kershaw. Kershaw has better stuff then when Elbert was drafted. Kershaw is also more polished then when Elbert was drafted due to playing very good compeition in the Dallas area whereas Elbert was beating up on Missouri competition.

235 Buster Olney has called Kemp a righthanded Travis Hafner at the plate.

A lot of NL West players in Seventies lost a lot of home runs due to the extreme favorable pitching parks in L.A. and Houston (Astrodome) and the very high walls at Jack Murphy Stadium before they added the shorter fences some years later.

231
Yeah, mine to. I thought he was gonna be the best LA Dodger RF in history. At least we were able to trade him for the best Dodger RF in a single season.
Before the ho ha's begin, Sheffield played LF for the Dodgers and Reggie Smith was great but he doesn't match what Green did in 2001.

240. As someone who played high school baseball in Missouri, I resent that comment.

I liked Jim Callis' response (sarcastically responding in all caps) to some guy who can barely operate a computer:

SCOTT ((DALLAS,TX)): WHY DO YOU THINK THE RANGERS ARE STUGGLE?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:25 PM ET ) PITCHING.

I wonder why Odalis Perez is stuggle.

185 -- That list is pretty silly. Not because I disagree with it (I don't agree with the prospect lists other people posted, but there is nothing insane about them). Three of the players on your list (Alexander, Apodaca, and Ketchner) have no chance of making even Baseball America's Top 30 Prospects list for the Dodgers, one player (Ruggiano) has only a slight chance of making the Top 30 at all, and one player (Pedroza) won't make the Top 20, but will probably fit in the 21 to 30 range. Pedroza is two and a half months older than Loney and playing three full levels below Loney, and is striking out an absurdly high percentage of the time against pitchers he should be slaughtering every at bat if he were a quality prospect. The fact that you don't consider Loney, currently hitting .358/.413/.503 and a challenger for the PCL's batting championship, any kind of prospect at all, destroys any possible credibilty you might have in venturing an opinion on Dodger prospects. I apologize to anyone who thinks this post is mean-spirited, but really, it had to be said. Ryan-Freaking-Ketchner? Who hasn't pitched in two year and back then topped out at 85 miles per hour? For God's sake!

well at least I'm not as mean as Canuckdodger :)

243 Mondy is a bitter sweet tale. EVery game I went to in the mid 1990s seem to have an amazing play or moment from Mondesi. Man, he would make some beautiful plays in RF. The Roberto Clemente hype was starting to make sense, until he became a complete idiot.

245

the college lingo is "struggs"

"I'm having a bad day today"

translation: "Today was pretty struggs"

and that is today's lesson in the evolution of the English languague.

How about this one:

greg: biggest impact callup this year?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (3:11 PM ET ) Thinking . . . thinking . . . I believe Chad Billingsley could be the difference in the NL West for the Dodgers.

250 toooo much hype around Billingsley, I am not sure he is ready to be the deciding factor in a pennant race. Dodgers fan might be setting themselves up for a disappointment with all this hype.

I seem to be stuggle today.

I dont like the hype either. Thats why I don't have any expectations right now.

241-

Buster Olney also believes in productive outs.

Oh, and by the way, Willy Aybar fans in the house!

James Loney and Chad Billingsley represent the first number one draft picks to play for the Dodgers since Paul Konerko's cup of coffees in 1997 and 1998 (before being traded) and Darren Dreifort coming up without playing in the minors in 1994.

After Dreifort, you have to go to the 1976 -1979 drafts where the Dodgers first round picks of Mike Scioscia, Rick Sutcliffe and Steve Howe as being productive players for the Dodgers.

So if you just hopped on the Dodger prospect wagon recently, welcome aboard but it has been a real long time when this many have made their way to Chavez Ravine.

how much is Jason Schmidt going to ask for this winter?

255 Once again another plug for raising the scouting budget and signing Logan to a long term deal.

Anything can happen with Billingsley in the short run. Anything. He could dominate, he could be just okay, he could be get his ass kicked. Really, it is that open. You look at what an inferior prospect like Josh Johnson is doing in Florida and you think, "well, if he's doing what he is doing Billingsley has to be even better right away." But it doesn't work like that. Luck plays a big role, and a lot depends on how Billingsley is able to cope with the butterflies in his stomach. I know Broxton said this year that when he pitched his major league innings last year anxiety was eating away at him the whole time.

I just found out that Smooth Sal Fasano wont be a free agent this offseason :(

Ned's gunna have to trade for him.

Yeah, I'm not predicting much from Billingsley because I don't want to jinx him, don't want expectations too high, and know that on occasion he's bound to... stuggle.

Still, I predict he'll be better than OP or Seo. Is that relatively safe?

So Canuck give us your top ten given Nate's criteria.

One thing going in Billingsley's favor is that he has a ridiculously easy schedule if he pitches every fifth day starting tomorrow:

6/15 - @SD
6/21 - vs. Sea
6/26 - @Minn
7/2 - @LAA
7/7 - vs. SF

His first challenging opponent (should he stay in the rotation) would be after the all-star break when the first two series are against the Cardinals and D-Backs.

260 -- Oh, no question, Billingsley would be better than Perez or Seo over a few games, but the issue is, if Billingsley gets lit up in his debut, or his first two games go badly, will he even get the chance to even things out, or will he be sent back to Triple A?

My big concern with Chad is the 5.1 average IP so far this year. I'm hoping that is due to the league and how hard he has to work in the offensive friendly PCL and that he can get his pitch counts down in the Majors.

Still we haven't had a prospect like Chad hit the mound since EJ and Chad is much more hyped then EJ was.

It is nice to see the number one picks hitting the bigs but for me it is even more fun when the lower picks like Kemp and Martin make an impact.

New post up top.

261 -- I don't usually make prospect lists this early in the season, but since I raked somebody over the coals for such a list, it is only fair that I put one out there and give people a shot at critiquing my list, if they want to do that.

LaRoche
Guzman
Elbert
Loney
Kershaw
Abreu
Hu
Morris
Orenduff
Miller

When a prospect is called up, his contract is "purchased." What exactly does this mean?

267 This is from the excellent Rob Neyer Transactions Primer on ESPN.com from a few years back (http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/1999/0908/46397.html):

"Called Up" vs. "Contract Purchased"
When a player is summoned from the minors to the majors, you'll see that he was either "called up" or his "contract was purchased." For most practical purposes, this really doesn't make much difference. If he's already on the 40-man roster, he's called up. If he's not on the 40-man roster, then his contract is purchased (for a nominal fee) from the minor-league team.

However, the player must be added to the 40-man roster when his contract is purchased, which often necessitates dropping another player from the 40-man roster, whether by release or trade.

266
Thanks, so you must have concerns about Dewitt at this point. Nice group of players but a far cry from what the list looked like headed into 2006.

246. We have different methods of evaluating players. I remember about 3yrs ago someone asked be who I thought was the best Dodger catching prospect, and I told them Russell Martin, strictly bc of his terrific BB/K ratio. The guy said I was nuts, told me he was a converted 3rd basemen, and that Mike Nixon was the best catching prospect bc he had all the tools.

I value production over all other things.

and Ketchner) have no chance of making even Baseball America's Top 30 Prospects list for the Dodgers,

I could care less what Baseball America says.

Ryan-Freaking-Ketchner? Who hasn't pitched in two year and back then topped out at 85 miles per hour?

I believe Ketchner has been the best pitcher at every level's he's pitched at. I could care less if he throws 85. All that matters is his peripherals. Ever heard of Kenny Roger, Jamie Moyer, or Tom Glavine? And he did have TJ surgery, so there's a chance he could come back throwing harder.

I'll never discount a guy that has actually performed. I will discount guys that dont.

Loney's not a prospect bc he plays 1st base and doenst hit for power.

You look at what an inferior prospect like Josh Johnson is doing in Florida and you think,

Yeah, Johnson is really inferoir. Maybe Hr/9 should be looked at with more relevance as pitchers are evaluated. Johnson's been fantastic in his call up and thats the one stat he dominates in.

Thank you for the response about "purchasing" contracts.

Thank you for the response about "purchasing" contracts.