Jon's of course right, but if we were as judicious as him with our evidence, we'd have a lot less to talk about, eh? =)

Anyhow, though, I do think blaming Beltre for not being focused enough ignores the fact that he could be TOO focused. That's the implication of the term "pressing," no, that a player can sometimes be trying too hard? It may actually be that he just needs to relax.

Regardless, it's clear that none of us really know. What is clear IMO is that Beltre's production is so consistently erratic that I thank the stars we didn't hold on to him.

WWSH

The problem I have with not being judicious about how we discuss it is that when it comes time for Beltre's story to be summed up, I'd hate for it to rest on ill-serving myth. I'm not trying to keep people from having fun, of course, but I don't see what's fun about dubious assertions.

Feel free to prove me wrong, of course.

Of course, part of the enjoyment of baseball is we attach subjective, even ethical, factors to it. That's certainly partly true for me. I take a genuine glee in the defeat of the Giants. I have a real feeling of contempt for the smugness of the Yankee franchise. After all, we all probably spend too much time on baseball, when measured by any rational cost-benefit analysis.

How that goes with the first paragraph of my comment--I have absolutely no idea...

WWSH

Pop-psych is hard to avoid, but combining what I know about Beltre with what Hargrove said, I think Beltre has always been sort of the ingenue, the young guy who blew away more experienced players, and got approval from that. When he reached the major league level, where a lot of players were at his level, he think that to win approval, he has to be way better than the best. When, in fact, all Seattle's paying for is for him to be a little better than the best. Ergo, he's been pressing, nonstop, and we know that doesn't work.

I'll further speculate that returning to Dodger Stadium gave him a sense-memory of when the game was fun, like in 2004, and his neural pathways allowed the good vibes to flow again.

If this is true, Seattle might see a big turnaround and date it to this series. I have to admit I'm rooting for Adrian.

They take their cues from the media, which has a deal with the players they cover not to criticize their talent. This leads to the code words we are all familiar with. People then appear to take this dance seriously.

if furcal, lofton AND izzy all play we're in trouble.

This oversimplicification of analysis has been shoved down our throats by the ESPNs of the world, who realize their audience doesn't want an intricate explanation for things, but a canned 10 second notion from an ex-ballplayer who we can point at and say, "Hey, he reminds me of me!"

Watching most of his plate appearances, I think that is the best theory. When he relaxes and just hits, he does well. Thankfully he seems to be reaching that point.

My totally unsubstantiated and unresearched feeling is that he either has an injury or he went off steroids. Beltre was never the type to hit no doubters, so either malady could hurt his bat speed and take 15-20 feet off of balls that went over the fence for him in 04.

Not that Kuo's any great shakes, but dropping him to place Izzy would've weakened an already enfeebled pitching staff. They don't have much quality, so they're pretty much forced to go with extra quantity. Probably better to go with 12 pithers, because the starters check out so early night after night.
A position player was the best choice to free the spot for Izzy.

Fair enough, but do you remember what sports coverage was like before ESPN? Local junk and a few national hagiographers. ESPN has now been surpassed by the internet, but it was a quantum leap forward in sophisticated sports coverage 25 years ago.

As for Beltre, Amen to Jon's post. But I always liked the bone spurs theory. I remember coming up with it (probably at the same time as 1,000 other observers) early in that 2004 season. I saw him lunge, as usual, for a slider low and away, fall to the ground in pain, and then lay off that pitch thereafter. Lo and behold, good hitter's counts and better results followed. He'd forget after a while, lunge, crumple, and re-learn the lesson.

Of course, that might explain the start of his great season, but it can't explain why he'd keep forgetting the lesson, and eventually fail to re-learn in once his ankle was again healthy. That speaks to the power of ingrained bad habits, lack of focus, pressing, whatever.

"Not motivated." Yeah, I agree, that's often thrown around when it's not warranted. It's cynical and often a product of envy.

"Pressing." Actually I've heard many players themselves provide that explanation, so my using it doesn't constitute "oversimplification."

I agree, on his worst day, Adrian Beltre performs at a level that most of us will never reach in any endeavor. But he is a human being, not a robot, and I think it's fair to say we're all passingly familiar with the complex psychology of human beings. Often the explanations for mysterious changes in behavior or performance are just that simple.

Even if I'm right, I refuse to infer anything about the next 15 years of his career from this odd turn of events. I wonder if he really was tipping his pitches.

he struck out sexson on a swing and miss curveball.

Incidentally, I dropped tonight's starter, Felix Hernandez, because he doesn't quite have it all down yet. He strikes people out, but gives up the long ball a lot, including 3 to the Giants on June 16. The crazy thing, though, is that he's just a couple months over 20.

Makeup? His remarkable durability suggests toughness and desire. You simply cannot play that much baseball Beltre had from age 16 onward unless you have those qualities.

I buy that PEDs can increase batspeed, or at least prevent it from waning by fostering quicker recovery. In turn, that could better allow a hitter to wait on pitches. But I don't think he was a PED guy, and if the LA media didn't indulge that speculation, whereas others do, bully for the LA media.

Tony Gwynn even said in the 2004 season that it was evident that Beltre was staying back on pitches better and attributed it to the foot/ankle spurs. Said his body was in a more balanced hitting position at the right time.
As for the subsequent reversion, that seems fairly logical, given the amount of muscle memory that preceded 2004. My hope is Beltre can tune into his '04 mechanics on a more consistent basis.

I can buy Beltre's suggestion that he would've fared better for the Dodgers in '05 than he did for Seattle. But I doubt he would'be approached his '04 numbers. I also believe he pushed through a leg injury last year and that it reduced his overall performance.

Exactly. Pap. A complete abdication of any responsibility to truth. It's merely corruption masquerading as analysis.

If you (hypothetically) had Aybar in instead of Kent and Kemp instead of Lofton, the average age of the lineup would drop to 26.7, leaving Izturis still in the younger half.

Is that why Grady keeps referring to Cesar as a "kid"?

Pure journalistic gold in the context of that article.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0553436/

Beltre's going to hit in to 2 DP's, strike out ounce & hit a scramer to old friend Izzy but Izzy will make an easy play on it.

The most notable exception would have been Pedro Martinez.

That's kind of sad. Going into the season, I could have sworn pitching would be one of our strengths.

Given what was in the rotation, I would have said that was a mistake.

BTW, Jon, just for my own curiosity, today's column isn't aimed at moi, is it?

"Awesome! FLA/BAL, Top 10, runner on second with Miguel Cabrera at the plate. They tried IBBing him, but the pitche was just into the opposite hitter's box, so Cabrera stepped forward, lunged at the high 'fastball' and smacked it into centerfield for the go-ahead RBI!

— Chris, 19 minutes ago"

Wow

Wow. I didn't know you could have a walk off home run in the third inning.

Think harder.

For example, I think it is highly unlikely that Kenny Lofton will turn an unassisted triple play.

I find it unlikely that Kenjie Johjima will hit four triples.

Lowe was having a good at-bat fouling off pitches & so forth, to top it off he hita bullet that almost took Hernandez head off, it was sweet

Not a bad idea consedering our pitching situation

I've looked into this already. Almost possible. They have secret service with him 24/7