I hope Lowe can match Liriano tonight, and/or match his performance in his previous start. The Twins are really hot - why do the Dodgers keeping the hottest AL teams when they've done interleague this month. Oh well, we shall see.

Is Hendrickson starting tomorrow or is it still Perez?

1 Presumably Perez, as Hendrickson pitched on Sunday

The Dodgers are facing "hot" interleague teams because the AL teams are beating the tar out of the NL. Everybody in the AL is getting well now. Even the Royals!

Hendrickson pitched Sunday, we probably won't see him until Friday at the earliest (if they want to have him go on 4 days rest). So, most likely it will be Saturday.

Dodger players who attended Washington State:
Ron Cey
Mark Hendrickson
Mike Kinkade
Tom Niedenfuer
Aaron Sele

3 Well, maybe, it is true the AL's kicking the pants off the NL - but the Twins are the hottest team in baseball and didn't the A's win 10 straight when we played them? Also: I'd be fine if LA played the Royals instead of the Twins.

Oh and thanks, I stupidly had forgotten Hendrickson had pitched Sunday so my question should be retracted (if I could retract stupid questions).

I think Liriano K's atleast 11.

Is Gammons out of surgery and in ICU now?

I am going to a Baseball Prospectus event at Petco this Friday and I will ask Joe Sheehan about any slight he feels from the old guard of the Baseball Writers Association.

An aside, I heard Tony Jackson on the pregame show the other day and he gave a very SABR friendly response on one of his pet peeves, the sacrifice bunt and why NL teams use it with the top part of their lineup.

I looked at the stats and found that the Dodgers are tied for second fewest sacrifices (by non-pitchers) with 11 in the NL.

Liriano was traded away by the Giants when Ned Colletti was assistant general manager.

While I'm on the fence regarding Mr. Ned, I don't know if that's entirely fair to him. I don't see anybody making reference to Kim Ng's role in today's trade.

The creator of the Dodger Dog has died...

http://tinyurl.com/fkwyd

10 - Noted earlier today in one of my posts.

9 - I apologize - I put that in because of the coincidental timing, not because I was pinning that on Colletti.

A little different topic, but I haven't seen any comments on this. Wasn't anybody as disturbed as I was when Grady apparently let Tomko stay in in order to qualify for a win when he was running the risk of aggravating a serious injury. An injury that did indeed land him on the disabled list. And yet he pulled Penny in similar circumstances when it was just a question of whether he was losing his stuff.

11 Dang it.. That's what I get for working outside all day.

Nate, come home. You're speaking a strange language over there that none of them understand.

12 - I noticed, but I harp on that kind of thing so much, I didn't have the energy to talk about it.

I hate to see what other deals are in store, after the Dodgers get done playing the Cards 7 times next month.

I consider this deal a panic deal and the team is in 1st at 40-36.
What will happen when things really go bad?

14
Is Nate at the dodgers.com board trying to argue haha?

What's the big deal about facing the Cardinals?

The Cardinals have lost seven straight and with the exception of one game have been lit up.

Are there some great pitchers on the Cardinals that I have been missing this year?

14

I am at a point of no return: argument to the death!

15 Jon was wise enough not to crash into the wall making the catch and lives to fight another day. Is Gagne paying attention? Or Jason Repko? We can all learn something from Amos Otis.

Not happy. Seo for Hendrickson - not much of improvement if any. Navarro for whoever, a potential trade bait of some value for another David Ross-Brent Mayne.

Maybe Odalis will come around tonight?

BTW Ned's comment about a number one starter came in the context of being asked about Willis which he could not comment on, so I think he has an idea of what a number one starter looks like, though I don't really see that many or any being available.

For those who missed it, he said that if he could get a number one, he would deal some prospects, not a boatload but one or two top prospects.

The Cardinals have lost seven straight and with the exception of one game have been lit up.

They were facing the White Sox and Tigers, probably the two best teams in baseball.
I'd rather not face them with Pujols/Edmonds/Rolen in the middle of their lineup.

Their pitching isnt great, but it'll improve with Marquis/Mulder out of the rotation, and some kids in it.

I think the Cards will probably win 5 of 7 against the Dodgers, maybe more.

11 Sorry to misunderstand the intent. Thanks for clearing that up!

Colletti on 710 AM hinted he was looking for a top of the rotation pitcher, and was willing to part with one or two prospects to do it. He wouldn't cop to it being Dontrelle Willis, but that's what Steve Mason threw him.

Re: Statistics. Well, to be fair, Colletti justified the trade on somewhat of a statistical basis. Tropicana Field has a fast fake turf, so they were judging Hendrickson primarily on how he pitched on the road, in conditions more like Dodger Stadium. Colletti said his road numbers were much better than home numbers.

Toronto, his old team, also plays on vinyl, right?

As I predicted, Colletti also suggested Hall was "power off the bench." I wonder if he's going to be such a sweetheart as a backup, since he's started his whole career so far.

Sorry, meant Odalis coming around on Wed. nite.

Nate, do we have to kill it to save it?

Colletti also suggested Hall was "power off the bench."

A Grabowski that catches?
Nice.

21
Maybe Odalis will come around tonight?

That would be typical of Perez to come around tonight...since he's not pitching til tomorrow night.

27

that might be the only way they can be saved.

18 When your second leading HR hitter is Juan Encarnación, you should not be feared.

The Cardinals have been outscored 65-27 in their losing streak.

The Cardinals are pretty much like any other above average team in the NL.

I don't see why it is incessantly drummed into our heads that the Cardinals will beat the Dodgers so much. It's like Cato the Elder talking about Carthage.

28 Acutally, Grabowski did catch. That was one of the justifications for keeping him around, presumably like Sandy Alomar.

The Cardinals are pretty much like any other above average team in the NL

There's only like two above average teams in the Nl. The Mets and Cardinals.

32 - C'mon, quit comparing everything to Cato the Elder.

The Cardinals are 1 1/2 games ahead of the Reds.

So there you go.

I'm having this sense Elbert will not be a Dodger prospect past this season.

Hall has a career slugging percentage of .382 (.120 ISO), how is that "power off the bench?"

I feel a victory today

37

that makes me sad :(

37 If that were true, I hope that means he's rushed to the majors, so that he's a Dodger as opposed to a Dodger prospect.

40
Me too. And I am sure when he is dealt, we get to hear that he was past by Kershaw as the best lefty pitcher in our system. Because for some reason, we only want one left-handed starter.

42

stop. I can't take it anymore.

Does anyone think Jim Tracy gets a chance to coach David Price? Or is he gone by the time Price is in the majors?

(Yes, I am assuming Pirates finish last)

38 As I mentioned in the last thread, Hall is now in second place on the team with 8 home runs, trailing only Drew, who has 9.

Woo hoo! We're gonna run away with this division! I love this team!

(apologies to bluetahoe)

37 I don't see any teams dealing for a High A pitcher as a major cog in a deal, more than likely it will be for some of the guys that have already showed they could play in the majors.

Now that will make more people here sad than someone who is still on the Vero Beach/Jacksonville shuttle.

30 -- But we just purged! How many putsches can we go through? I mean sure, there are as many GM candidates as there are gullible morons in the world, but won't we just do this in perpetuity until Mr. Don't Just Do Something, Stand There! sells the team to Dave Checketts?

46
I think Ethier is the only rookie that could be dealt. Martin is not going anywhere. A riot would break out if Kemp was traded. They can't afford to get rid of Broxton. And for some reason no one seems to think much of Willy Aybar.

Well I am playing dodgers GM on the minorleagueball.com trade deadline game thing.

Hopefully I can do better then Colletti.

What about dealing Saito?

49
Nice. I was wondering who was going to take the Dodgers.

49 Do you have any untouchables?

52

Nah, I'm open to anything.

Nate, if this makes you feel better, as I stated in another thread, I think this trade leads to Alomar, Hall, DeWitt, and Hendrickson for Sal Fasano.

54
Take DeWitt out and that trade is cool with me.

54

Well, prying Sal Fasano away from the Phillies is going to be one of my priorities. So dont you worry, Sal's Pal's will be coming to the Ravine.

Can anyone tell me how long we have hendrickson and hall under control?
And at what price or how many years of arbitration?

57

Hendrickson has two more years of arbitration after this year. Hall is a free agent after this year.

48 Don't forget Guzman.

Hendrickson looks like an elongated Ben Roethlisberger.

Grady what is your opinion of Hendrickson?
"Well, he's tall..."

I posted this at the end of the other thread in response to Jon's argument regarding why Hendrickson is likely to regress to the angry. I'm reposting it here because I'm curious about what input others have on this issue.

"As Hendrickson's line-drive percentage regresses to the angry (the term I'm using because I'm tired of saying "regresses to the mean"), the number of hits he allows will rise, because line drives tend to be converted into hits more often than any other type of ball in play."
I'm wondering how fine-grained this analaysis is. Is it the case that the stat is determined based on something as fine-grained as the Fielding+ statistic that was mentioned several days ago? Or, rather, is the stat based on line drives in general?
I ask because it seems like this would make a difference. If a pitcher gives up a high percentage of line drives, but usually directed at position players, then a poor defense will obviously allow more hits to fall in. If the defense is lucky and/or good, then the pitcher's statistics will reflect this.
If, on the other hand, a pitcher generally gives up lots of line drives in the gap, but hasn't recently, then this would appear to be a bigger problem.

59
Oh yeah good point, I forgot about Guzman. Yeah, he will probably be dealt.

I would have no problem adding Guzman to any deal, so long as it nets a legitimate, and I mean legitimate 1 or 2 starter.

61 As I said in the other post, there is zero correllation year to year for line drive percentage, ergo, it's pretty much entirely luck based.

I don't feel either way about this trade--no big deal. The only good thing is that it unloads a lot of our tradable goods and decreases the probability that we will make a stupid blockbuster, including Isturiz and some good prospects.

64 - But if the stat only measures luck, then how useful is it? That is to say, what sorts of predictions can be made on that basis?
This is why I was thinking that it might make sense to make the stat more fine-grained -- i.e., combine with something like Fielding+ in order to determine how hard opposing batters tend to hit the ball against a pitcher, and where the ball tends to be hit. Perhaps making the stat more precise could tell you how much the defense tends to play a role in the pitcher's luck, or lack thereof.

63
I agree. I am willing to part with Guzman over any of our other top prospects.

Though, after seeing Troy Glaus play SS, I am starting to dream about Joel up the middle again haha.

Wow, we had navarro for 4 or 5 more years and he would have been arguably the best backup catcher in baseball, but now we have a guy who as far as career stats go, is absolutely nothing with the bat and under control only for this year.

The hendrickson for seo thing doesn't bother me, its the navarro for hall thing that bothers me, we gave up arguably the best backup catcher in the game for no improvement.

64 I thought you said it was a negative correlation.

69 Very slightly negative. R=-.03

This Izturis at 3rd base thing will last exactly how long?

71 The man has 21 at bats and is hitting .381. What more do you want?

I was more/less looking at his 2,000+ career at bats.

From BA Hot Prospect List:
James Loney, 1b, Dodgers (Triple-A Las Vegas): Seemingly the lone example of a Dodger prospect stuck in the minors, Loney has not slowed since Los Angeles sent him to Triple-A Las Vegas on April 24. In June, the first baseman is hitting .388, and proving there is power in his bat with a .573 slugging percentage for the month.

Career sub .700 OPS shouldnt be starting at 3rd base.

71 Until someone makes an offer for Izzy and they have a better idea about LaRoche's injury.

Note: Just because the ball is inside, doesn't mean you can't hit it.

Given the Dodgers current options, who would you rather start at third?

we gave up arguably the best backup catcher in the game for no improvement

At AAA?

Nomar at 3rd with Saenz at 1st.
Aybar at 3rd
Saenz at 3rd

3 options that are better than Izturis at 3rd.

DodgerSims predicts a 5-3 victory for the Blue Crew this evening. After nailing three sims in a row the last two have been way off. Hopefully tonight's coin toss will be right on.
WP-Lowe, LP-Liriano, H-Broxton, SV:Saito.
vr, Xei

Career sub .700 OPS shouldnt be starting at 3rd base.

Exactly.
Saenz should be playing 3b, cruz should be DHing allowing ethier to start in the outfield and be in the lineup instead of izturis.

Ethier > izturis.
Maximize your assets especially with this pitching staff.

I smell a shutout today.

79. Yeah pretty dumb trade. I can see using Navarro as trade bait as we have a very good young catcher in Martin. If Colleti felt compelled to trade him, instead of getting junk for him, why not atleast trade him for a decent minor league pitcher to help bolster the pitching pipeline??
vr, Xei

Another hit.

80 Okay, given the things the Dodgers will actually do (Saenz is not a full time player, and Aybar, well, I don't know what's wrong with him, but Grady sure doesn't like him), who would you play at third.

I'm not saying Izturis is the best option, but given the choice between him and Ramon Martinez, I'll take Izturis.

Kent has no range.

You have more faith in lefties against Liriano?

Aybar at 3rd is not a better option than Izturis, imho. Certainly not defensively, and it's not even Izturis' natural position (he's looked fine so far though). Saenz is a nice option but can't play 3rd all that often - his delicate body doesn't hold up to starting every day, especially not at the hot corner. The first option wouldn't be too bad, but again, Saenz doesn't start every day and I think defensively Izturis might be better than Nomar at 3rd. Just my two cents.

And Xei - I'm rooting for the Sim. Go Sim!

79

At AAA?

What?
Navarro should be our backup catcher for years to come.
Too late now, and at no improvement.

Izturis shouldn't be playing third everyday.

That would not be a hit in dodger stadium. No wonder Mauer is batting .380.

82
Willy Aybar should be starting a third base. I am not a fan of Saenz at all.

90.

WHO CARES WHO OUR BACK UP IS? You could pick those off the street for all I care. The point is we got rid of Seo, and got a decent pitcher in return.

Okay, given the things the Dodgers will actually do

Thats usually the heart of the problem.

79-

not only did we give away what could have been a great back up catcher for no improvement, we're also paying Hall a heck of a lot more than Navarro would have made.

TB, didnt you think Seo was a decent pitcher when the Dodgers got him, and alot of other people were saying he wasnt good bc of the peripherals?

This is the same situation. Hendrickson isnt a decent pitcher. Navarro is better than Toby Hall.

Thats basically the crux.

93

Willy Aybar should be starting a third base. I am not a fan of Saenz at all.

Well yes of course, its just he's not on the team right now.
The dodgers should bring back aybar and platoon him with saenz at 3b.
Saenz vs lefties, he kills lefties.

94
Because that "backup" was a vlauble trading asset and we dumped him for a pitcher who has not proven he is better than Seo.

Aybar should be traded for Scott Baker. And in my world, he is going to be.

82 Well David Bell and Nick Punto certainly fall in that range.

Sounds like D. Lowe is on his game, low counts and ground balls.

This is going to be ridiculous. Liriano is going to carve us up.

Who's going to play third base in your world Nate?

94 Should the Phillies have traded Ryan Howard or Jim Thome for nothing then?

92-

what evidence is there that that's not a hit at DS? Mauer is hitting .380 because he's one of the best hitters in the league.

Did you see the movement on that second pitch to kemp? WOW

94

WHO CARES WHO OUR BACK UP IS? You could pick those off the street for all I care.

Catchers need more days off than anyone else, so i wouldn't want anyone off the streets let alone hall.

The point is we got rid of Seo, and got a decent pitcher in return.

Decent pitcher?, no we didn't.

I consider Aaron Rowand just slightly more than nothing, but your point still stands.

100
If only we lived in your world Nate.

103

well Laroche in the near future.

94-

WHO CARES WHO OUR BACK UP IS?

I do. Especially when the catcher we're getting in return isn't as good, is owed more money, and is only under control for this year instead of numerous years of Navarro.

Hendrickson isnt a decent pitcher.<<

A 3.81 ERA in the American League is pretty good.

And his road ERA is 2.20, and 2.09 on grass. I'd say that's decent.

109

too add, I would basically bite the bullet on izzy and olmedo manning 3b for the rest of the season. Izturis plays, shows that he is healthy and I think we can get more from him in the winter then at the trade deadline.

112-

that's one half of one season.

Nate's World - yay

Ned's World - shudder

112

ERA this and ERA that.

STOP looking at ERA, START looking at PERIPHERALS.

112
Brett Tomko had a good ERA for awhile too.

Morneau with the 3-0 green light?
Interesting.

112

Just dont get your hopes too high. Danys Baez is an example of just looking at a pitchers era and going "oh look mommy, a good pitcher! can we take him home?"

Yes it is. But it is a pretty good half.

You know he holds hitters to a .241 average right?

FL,JN,BB4AJP

Worlds Where Mark Hendrickson Is Considered Anything But Garbage -- Fantasyland, Wonderland, Ned Colletti's Cobwebbed Brain

113
Interesting.

Am I reading correctly that Clemens just tried to pick off Ramon Santiago 5 straight times?

THinkingBlue you said Tomko/Seo would be good before the year started bc of those same stats you are signing to prop up Hendrickson.

ERA has a meaning, but the periperhals tell you whats inside those numbers, and whether the ERA is meaingfull. I'm surprised you havent learned your lesson, but then again the guy in charge making the decisions hasnt apparently either.

I was wondering where Rueben was.

We can't give up a run because we are not going to score any. I am hoping for a 0-0 tie.

122 and formerly my AL-only fantasy team

Rueben is still playing!!!!

1.28WHIP .369SLUGG .312OBA still decent MB.

I have both Lowe and Liriano in fantasy, one of them needs to get a W.

130

You are not getting it.

I dislike fantasy baseball, and I am continually reminded why.

Lofton lights a fire under Steiner and Lyons causing them to drool all over Kenny.

Last night aside, this team is on a pace to score more runs than any Los Angeles Dodger team since they moved to LA.

This is despite not having a single player with double digit home runs.

Now, this approach works when you can see a pitcher a few times but in close games where you often need a home run to make the difference, this is where they are lacking.

But as we approach the midway point, it can be no longer considered a fluke that this is a pretty good if unconventional offensive team.

132 -- Perhaps you should try a flashing web-site that says .241 BAA

This is the bottom line of the trade:
Hendrickson = seo
Hall < navarro

We gave away navarro to swap the same pitcher and downgraded at catcher.

130-

not to mention you're still looking at ONE HALF OF A SEASON.

133
Yeah, but it is probably the only chance I will get to root for Liriano on my team.

Welp, there goes the game

GAME OVER!!!!

But Midas says that Hendrickson and Hall are LIGHTS OUT.

That is the cheapeast RBI HBP I may have ever seen. If that guy comes up again with no one on I say plunk him for reals.

I suppose calling up Loney and putting Nomar on third (where we should have signed him to play in the first place) makes too much sense to appeal to retards like Little and Colletti...

This is why the DH sucks. Lowe must have forgotten that the next batter is not the pitcher. I could never love an American League team and the DH is the leading reason why.

Hey, we like Grittle! Usually.

Was it yesterday we had the walk-off homerun in the third? Today we have a walk-off HBP in the second.

Okay well, I might go do something else now.

Nate, who do you think goes no 1 in the NBA draft?

Say Goodnight Gracy!!!

Ummm, I think we can call the sweep now

Guys, it's nothing Mark Hendrickson won't fix.

145 - oh, because watching the pitcher flail weakly at ball four is such a pile of excitement?

The DH is coming to the NL. Maybe not this year, maybe not next, but soon, and for the rest of your life.

Nate, who do you think goes no 1 in the NBA draft?

The crappy Euro.

Well this is the first Derek Lowe blowup since opening day except that was home runs.

There is no one in the bullpen to call in lol.

152 - Steve, you're an evil, evil man.

Meantime, it's humiliation time.

If Gameday were any slower it would acually be moving backwards in time.

Don't go yet, Nate. I haven't told you about the 80 BOMBS Hendrickson has given up in 646.1 career IP.

116 - Well, above I asked a direct question about how one of the peripherals is measured. No one has answered it yet.

Apparently, the strategy in most arguments about the trade here today is to keep repeating the same thing over and over, and hope that makes it true. Then, when that fails, make fun of the people who disagree with you. Sounds like a sound recipe for civil debate to me.

The only sad thing for Minnesota is that they took the first two months off, they will wake up tomorrow and still be double digits out of the division and wild card.

Use cbs.sportsline.com's version, sometimes the pitches update faster than the TV station's ball-strike count does.

When do we play the PIRATES again????

Spot Liriano six runs. There's a different approach.

Yeah, I think they take him.

The chance of Rudy Gay going number 1 is real interesting. Pair him up with Villanueva again. The Raptors won't have a massive front line, but they will have an extremely long one.

There has been an Edwin Jackson sighting in Florida.

So, just tuning in! How's it goin'?

......haw, chees.

Wow, Martin's new mustache is probably the greatest thing ever, too bad it didn't translate into immediate success.

What the heck to Martin do to his face?

Derek Lowe never pitched this bad when Jae Seo was on the club.

Did Colletti undervalue Seo's chem factor?

If Nomar's BA drops at any point from here on out we'll know the reason why.

Can we call Martin Closseau now? lol

Martin is copying Kent with his 'stache.

160 - what was the question?

...and EJax promptly gives up a 2-run homer

Wow, Martin's new mustache is probably the greatest thing ever, too bad it didn't translate into immediate success. ....

unlike beards. If you didn't notice, Martin's beard growth coincided with his recent hot streak.

Yep, its true. Believe in the power of the beard.

173 - See 61 and 66.

...and EJax promptly gives up a 2-run homer

He's lost without David Ross.

*Clouseau

160 - I understand you're upset, but it's starting to bother me that you're making these generalizations about the conduct in here based on the behavior of just a few people.

There has been plenty of civil and evolving discussion in here, but again, you just don't seem to want to see it.

That being said - for the people in here who are taunting other commenters or making incendiary remarks, please stop.

I did not respond to 116 because I did not know how to. That might be the case for others as well.

160

Well, above I asked a direct question about how one of the peripherals is measured. No one has answered it yet.

I don't know what you are asking, but i'll take a shot.

Hendrickson's career peripherals are:
10.83 h/9
1.13 hr/9
2.38 w/9
4.41 k/9

That says to me that he allowes a high number of hits a slightly high amount of homers doesn't walk many and doesn't strikeout many.

179 - Sorry, I meant 61 and 66, not 116.

175 - rally beards?

I can't even begin to think about knowing how to answer that question.

He's lost without David Ross.

Aren't we all.

Steiner just mentioned Clouseau.

I am psychic.

If we start struggling to score runs, don't be shocked if a "ProvenRBIGuy4Kemp" exchange rears its homely head.

Yeah, wasn't 3rd base supposedly bad for Izturis arm? I thought the doctor wanted him to play 2nd.

Is an error by the thirdstop scored "E 5.5"?

I thought the doctor wanted him to play 2nd.

How about you just stop giving them any other bright ideas, m-kay?

If we are going to start both Furcal and Izturis, then make Izturis the SS.

NICE CATCH Cruz!!

160

Line-drive percentage is determined by subjective observation. Stringers differentiate ground balls from flyballs from line drives.

Some analysis of line drive percentages over a broad population of players indicates that the amount of line drives a pitcher allows is not within his control. This is a very controversial proposition, and should in no way be considered as fact, despite the prevailing dogma here.

Before I get flamed, I will allow that there is validity to the hypothesis that line drive percentage is largely attributable to luck. However, these studies have looked at a broad swath of the league, and some people declaring here that the Hendrickson trade is crap because he's nothing but a lucky SOB ignore that luck is not the only factor.

Just because, in general, pitchers who have a drop-off in line drive percentage (like Hendrickson) or an increase in line drive percentage (like Odalis Perez), doesn't necessarily mean that the rule applies to each and every pitcher. It could actually mean that Hendrickson is enjoying a resurgence and that Perez's career is over.

I think Jon wrote about this in relation to Perez a couple weeks back.

189
Believe me, I do not want Izturis at second.

184 -- We once were lost, but now we're found.

How about an infield of Robles (3B), Furcal (SS), Izturis (2B), Martinez (1B)?

193

Thank you.

Nomar with a little extra credit.

What a waste. Nomar's out of homeruns.

Better luck next year, A.

Who is going to be the All-Star for the Royals?

179 - Fair enough. I've been a long-time reader, and decided to start posting today, since I often enjoy the discussions that go on here. Perhaps I picked the wrong day to start. When someone tries to give arguments and information, and is met with a stream of jokes and one-liners, then it makes one reconsider why they signed up for the site in the first place.
As for 116, the line drive statistic I thought was the strongest argument that Hendrickson would have trouble in L.A. That said, the stat seems to have a few potential problems, which makes it less clear how Hendrickson's performance will translate to the Dodgers. I was simply trying to offer a suggestion on how to make the stat more refined, is all.

That's not possible...he used up all of his homerun. I guess that means he's going to drive in more than 100 this year.

180 Well, you could opt to try and look on the bright side by using this year's numbers:

8.13 h/9
1.00 hr/9
3.43 w/9
5.12 k/9

looks like he's walking more people this year but giving up considerably less hits with improving K and HR rates. Hard to say if it's true improvement or not, maybe the whole "better on grass" thing will improve his numbers even more.

192 I'd be more inclined to believe that if his line drive percentage wasn't so obscenly low (1.4% lower than second place).

201 Yeah, the problem with the line drive stat is that I'm not an expert, I'm simply quoting what I read in the Hardball Times Annual. I can't go into more depth than what they give me.

BTW does anyone think that the construction of the Red Sox follows any sort of statiscal analysis, with the guru of modern baseball stat analysis in the front office, does the moves that they make more SABR sense or baseball sense?

When someone tries to give arguments and information, and is met with a stream of jokes and one-liners, then it makes one reconsider why they signed up for the site in the first place.

It's just a bad day/bad timing. Don't judge the comment section by this one bad day. Most of the time, its really good! :)

...and is met with a stream of jokes and one-liners...

We're sorry.

We've read too much Plaschke over the years.

Dangit Nomar, get a rally started. We're down 6 runs! The last thing we need is a solo HR...

It could actually mean that Hendrickson is enjoying a resurgence

If Hendrickson was enjoying a resurgence, then his other rates should noticeably improve. They havent much.

So we're not doing jokes and one liners anymore? If you'll excuse me, Bob, Steve, SamDC and I will be over at The Griddle. But not the Gammons thread. That would be horrible.

208 - Too much Plaschke is definitely not a good thing. :)

200 DeJesus? German? Dessens? Maybe Lance Carter can be the Royals' honorary all star.

To have a resurgence wouldn't Hendrickson need to have had a surge?

Farce begets farce.

you could opt to try and look on the bright side by using this year's numbers

Thats part of the problem.
His peripherals this season, in an obvious career year for Hendrickson, are still below average. He's a 4.50-5.00 ERA level pitcher, not a difference maker. His ERA this season doesnt jive with what his peripherals say it should be. So Hendrickson is basically fluff. An illusion. The distressing thing is Dodger management bought it.

To have a resurgence wouldn't Hendrickson need to have had a surge?

Well, he did have a hell of a growth spurt in high school.

I'm unable to watch the game. Does Liriano look as fantastic as advertised?

I now see why Mauer is leading the league (or majors) in hitting.

Well that's $2MM down the drain for the Astros.

The Dodgers will be happy to get out of Minnesota, the Dome, the Baggie and the Turf.

OCDodgerfan=Los Angeles Dodgers fan of Anaheim?

214 I'm not a stats guru, but I'm pretty sure peripherals don't always have to correlate with success. Some guys just get opposing batters to make weak contact. I'm not saying it's gonna happen, but there is a chance for Hendrickson to continue pitching well and maybe even improve. All this talk about peripherals makes it seem like there's no chance of Hendrickson being good at all for the rest of the year.

209 - A solo homer is a good way to start a rally actually. Just ask Odalis Perez . . .

Just to throw this out there, I think it should be said that the Oakland A's are not the real moneyball team, the Florida Marlins are. They're going to keep D-Train, and they're going to be really good in a few years.

221

I'm an OC Dodger fan as well.

I also like how after the error Izturis' fielding percentage is still higher than Furcal's.

Can someone please forward a different scouting report on Mauer to the Dodger dugout? Anytime before his next at bat would be nice.

Here are seo and hendrickson career peripherals, as you can see seo has better and neither are anything to brag about (which says alot about ned and pitching)
seo 9.29 h/9 1.00 hr/9 2.54 w/9 5.07 k/9
Hend. 10.83 h/9 1.13 hr/9 2.38 w/9 4.41 k/9

Seo's career has slightly been better than hendrickson.
I haven't looked at seo's peripherals so far this season, but i'm hearing hendrickson is having a better year.
But is hendrickson vs seo this season the difference between winning the world series and not?
If the answer to the above is no, then why did we give away navarro?

And its obvious navarro is better than hall.

So:
Hendrickson = seo (maybe hendrickson slightly better this season)
Hall < navarro

I just don't see anything else.

I'm done.

224

I know, but aren't you a Los Angeles Dodgers fan of El Toro, or something?

221 - of Irvine, actually.

Just to throw this out there, I think it should be said that the Oakland A's are not the real moneyball team, the Florida Marlins are. They're going to keep D-Train

If the Marlins are a moneyball team, wouldnt they trade D-Train in a similar way that Beane traded Mulder/Hudson?

wouldnt they trade D-Train in a similar way that Beane traded Mulder/Hudson?

Marlins have a 4 more years until Dtrain is a free agent. So they still might... in 3 years.

228

Rancho Santa Margarita. But EL Toro is close enough.

The Marlins are going to continue to proclaim that the D-Train is not available, and watch the price skyrocket up. If they're bowled over at the deadline, I believe they deal him. If not, he's gone in the offseason.

Liriano is filthy.
The Dodgers best lineup is against LHP, and he's working them all tonite.

232

Did I tell you about the time I waited in line for four hours at Tower Records in El Toro to get Slayer's autographs?

234 Thanks for the report. I've only seen him once before, and that was the general outcome.

I will be in Irvine on Thursday, before I head to Vegas. Sadly, none of my friends are willing to go to a 51's game :(

235
Nice.

Man, rough night for Izzy. Heck, for anyone not named Mauer or Liriano.

238

Very cool at the time. Not something I'd do today.

Gaffy's defense hasn't been nearly as good as I was led to believe it would be.

I think tonite's thread is the product of today's trade and the probability and realization of a tough night against the Twins and Liriano.

On the one hand, when a pitcher is on like Liriano, there isn't much you can do except hope that the AL trend continues and Zito beats up on the Padres. (BTW the A's are throwing out Zito, Blanton and Haren so they are not exactly facing an easy task either)

Can someone help me decide whether that play by Furcal was scrappy?

Gaffy's defense hasn't been nearly as good as I was led to believe it would be.

You'll love Gigantor II then.

The mustache lasted a logn time...

Now Martin name is Mach3 or Mach4.

Man, I didn't get a chance to see Martin's stache.

Sounded like that Furcal had no chance on that play, its one of those plays he could have just eaten ball.

Martin shaved the 'stache and got a hit. I feel a rally coming on.

Monday just said that Martin is now clean-shaven.

208 ...and is met with a stream of jokes and one-liners...

Yes. Magical, isn't it?

I've been looking around other sites on this trade, and feel a little better about it. It seems more than likely that Hendrickson will

a) outperform our low expectations and

b) outperform Jae Seo.

The D-Rays definitely come out ahead on the Navarro for Hall part of it, but the Dodgers did need someone fitting the Toby Hall profile. Navarro's not a backup and Alomar's barely alive.

It's not a great trade, but it's not worth all the agita. SO let's sit back, and enjoy tonight's game... d'oh!

250
Oh, never mind.

Way to take a pitch Furcal.

Martin's mom must've called the clubhouse and told him grandma was watching the game.

Whether his play was good or not, he gets no points for making an out on the first pitch.

The best thing we can say about this game is that at least the Giants don't have Liriano.

251
Navarro's not a backup

Do you mean

1. he's too good to be a backup, and that we should do him a favor by giving him a chance to start somewhere else, or
2. he's not even good enough to be a backup?

For the record, I've been dropping the "The jury's out on Mauer/Prior" since the draft, only to be mocked by, well, everyone.

Vindication, thy name is arm trouble.

227
And its obvious navarro is better than hall.

Where it is the obvious part?

258

Where it is the obvious part?

Stats.

Mauer is absolutely ridiculous.

Maurer's on an unbelieable hot streak. He's hitting .442 over his last 86 ABs.

258
Navarro for his career is hitting .279/.361/.380 and this year is hitting .280/.372/.387. He is 22 years old.

Toby Hall for his career is hitting .262/.298/.382 and this year is hitting .231/.261/.398. He is 30 years old.

I don't know about Toby Hall's defense. Navarro hasn't been very good at throwing baserunners out (my memory, can't find exact numbers). If Hall can do that, that's something. But at the plate, Navarro is clearly better.

I told my friend to draft Mauer last year. This year I told him to do it again and he did not trust me because of what happened last year. Oops.

The joke is that this like an exact replay of the baez trade. The punchline finally comes when somebody actually tries to explain how "this time" its going to be different, and puts away the tired wheezes about Tampa bay being in the AL East.

260 He had 4 hits total last week.

Okay, Navarro is 0 for 16 on catching runners this year. Hall is 11 for 33 this year. So Hall has that going for him.

Catchers don't hit like this. Not even Bench hit like this.

Yo, Martin. You need a hitting role model? Look across the field to the other dugout.

Man.. those D-Rays are doing okay with the trades.

Tim Kurkjian has an article on ESPN about players with intangibles. Our Sandy Alomar topped his list.

264
Yep. If nothing else, this trade suggests that Ned learned nothing from the Carter trade.

Lowe gets to 100 pitches, comes out (not to say he's pitched a whale of a game tonight).

Somebody refresh my memory: when did pitch counts become such a big measuring stick?

264 - I wish I could see the bottom line as clearly as you always seem to. I wiggle around it but I can never hit it dead on.

Tampa's GM knows how to sell high.
And ned falls for it.

271
I think Lowe got hit in the foot by a ground ball.

Is Varitek still the leader in all-star balloting for AL cathcer?

http://tinyurl.com/olkpn
by Beimel

The Best left handed reliever in baseball is in. Our troubles are over.

271 Wasn't he removed because he was hit by the ball? I'll admit I've stopped paying full attention, so I could have missed what actually happened.

Bad nite for Derek Lowe fantasy baseball owners.

275 Updated Today:

1. Jason Varitek, Red Sox 1,090,102
2. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers 1,047,987
3. Joe Mauer, Twins 769,284

279
Yeah, I am pretty sure this start alone will cause me to lose this week.

274, 278 Ah. Gameday didn't mention that. "XXX grounded out sharply to Lowe", but no mention of it hitting him.

Thanks.

THe Buccos will be going for lucky #13 tomorrow. Congrats to Jim Tracy.

I really hate fan voting in all sports.

284
Democracy sucks.

Tampa bay's pitching staff is bad. Other than kazmir. Kazmir will always best random distribution. No one else on that staff will. Ergo, someone will always be at the top of the bell curve. Hendrickson wins this month's lottery. Peripherals, schmeriferals. Same as baez.

Braden Webb getting the webbing kicked out of him. Even Beltre got in on the action.

Who the heck is Braden. Let's try Brandon

288 Don't sweat it. You just got him confused with Brandon Looper is all.

Kent giving his best Shawn Green impersonation.

The second I click on Gamecast, Kent hits one out. If you'll excuse me, I'm going to close and reopen Gamecast seven or eight more times.

Kent with a home run of the Shawn Green variety.

His trade value may be going up, but if Colletti is orchestrating the deal I wouldn't expect more than a guy like Craig Biggio or Adam Kennedy. Or maybe a scrappy veteran like Tony Womack.

290- barely beat me!

18 yr old Steven Johnson pitching a good game down in Odgen. I really like him. The Odgen staff has a ton of potential this year.

I'm just gonna go ahead and assume Kemp was completely baffled in that AB.

I just realized that Colletti is helping to increase the probability that Jeff Kent never wins a WS ring.

Well done, sir.

296- like nate said, Kent is here until he dies. I can see Kent playing 3+ years (if he can stay healthy). I really don't want to have to wait that long until I see the Dodgers win a WS.

273 I guess he should be happy with Edwin's lackluster performance, Tiffany's poor pitching before he got hurt, a catcher who hit less than .200 in a hitter's AAA league and now apparently the greatest thing since sliced bread or did he fail to Seo's stock had dropped to mop-up status.

I know this is a dying argument here and I raise only to be heard again, there was nothing based on what those guys were doing at the time of the deals were made that they were going to be good major league players. Sure Jackson, Tiffany, and Navarro are all young and maybe one of them will make it but the odds are that they won't.

Who are Ricardo Rodriquez, Ben Diggens, Franklin Gutierrez and now Edwin Jackson, they are now former No. 1 prospects of the Dodgers since 2000. Only James Loney, Guzman and Chad Billingsley remain in the system.

I think fans and certain GMs often hold on to prospects because they have a sense of ownership and these players are not making the big money.

Colletti did give Kent 11.5 mils though.
Thats not a bad parting gift.

296
lol

Navarro already has 278ABs at the big league level as a 21/22 yr old catcher.

I dont think the odds are "long" that he'll make it.

Anyways, no one is opposed to trading anything. Its never what you trade away, its always what you get back thats important.

So far, Colletti hasnt gotten back anything but the DRays garbage.

Shawn Green pulls the Diamondbacks within one on a home run.

Where would the Twins be if they hadnt earlier in the season wasted time on Rondell White, Juan Castro, and Tony Batista?

I doubt they have enough time to catch the White Sox/Tigers, but they do have a bright future.

Couldn't sanchez, schmoll, tiffany, jackson, navarro gotten us a lowe/penny clone starting pitcher?

303

Twins have a ton of pitching coming up through the ranks but are really short in terms of quality bats. But they probably have the best pitching depth in the minors

Adding to 304:

Didn't loduca, mota, encarnacion get us penny and choi?

The train station here in town -- Union Station -- has a public shopping area with restaurants and stuff. It also has some nice spaces where events/fundraisers are held. We were having dinner there tonight, and my 15 month year old was wandering around close by, and then he zipped over to a table that had a bunch of nametags for some event on it. He grabbed a tag and proudly brought it over to us. I glanced at it as I was walking it back -- "Wendy Selig".

Probably a different Wendy Selig, though. Isn't Bud's daughter named "Probst-Selig."

The Twins version of Lance Carter is in.
I thought they sent him to the minors earlier?

298 -- Gutierrez was never a #1 prospect of the Dodgers. He was rated #3 when he was traded, and #3 is the highest he was ever rated. The book is not closed on him, and he is up with the Indians right now. But I agree with your point that not every young prospect is worth hanging on to. Dan Evans, the GM whose enemies -- like JoeyP (formerly OldBear) -- derided as inflexible about dealing prospects, traded away Ricardo Rodriguez, Ben Diggins, Victor Diaz and many Dodger minor leaguers, without any of those players coming back to haunt us, and I wasn't choked up about losing them to begin with. I think Navarro is going to go in the same category. Jackson I think will put things together, just not this year.

"There was obviously interest, deservedly so," Devil Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. "I tip my hat to Ned. He made a bold move early."

translation: Keep on coming back please!

310

lol.
I agree with your translation.

310
Yeah, really. I have never heard a GM in baseball congratulate another after a trade haha.

310 It's a shame that falling over and laughing doesn't translate on to the written page.

Mauer Power! Mauer Power!

If you think Mark Hendrickson's 2006 performance is bound to regress and you think the same of Sele, don't you have to fairly assume Odalis ver. 2006 will improve?

(. . .and now I duck)

I can imagine how the today's deal came to fruition.

Devil Rays GM(S): Hello Ned. I really wanted to tell you how sorry I am about the last trade we made.
Ned: Huh?
DR: The trade really didn't work out for both sides. I feel really guilty about it.
Ned: That's just part of this business.
DR: Yea, but I want to make it up to you. I see that you need some help in the starting rotation. How about I trade you this lefty I have in my rotation. Even though he's our best pitcher I'm willing to make it up to you...
Ned: You'd really Mark Hendrickson? But he leads your staff in WHIP
DR: Ned, I was talking about....
Ned: Don't say another word, I'm interested.
DR: Well, I supposed [puts phone down and chuckles] I think we can work something out.
Ned: Alright, who are you interested in?
DR: Well, I'm trying to make up for that last trade. How about Jae Seo? You guys have demoted him to the bullpen so it doesn't look like you are very high on him.
Ned: It sounds like we have something here. But I really want a veteran catcher to back up Russell Martin. Would you mind swapping Toby Hall for Dioner Navarro.
DR: silence [covers phone with his hand] He wants to throw in Navarro too!
Ned: Are you still there?
DR: [cough cough] Yes I am...I got something in my throat. So you want really want to trade Navarro and Seo for Hendrickson and Hall.
Ned: Yes. Absolutely.
DR: [trying to contain his excitement] I think we have another deal Ned..
Ned: Nice doing business with you again.

I just realized that you can't spell Hendrickson without Erickson….creepy.

315 Yes (same with Seo)

I'm still trying to figure out how Canuck loves James Loney so much, but doesnt think much of Dionner Navarro.

That doesnt make much sense at all.

So who here lives close to Odgen Utah?

318

What about it doesn't make sense?

318 - In part, doesn't it have to do with defense?

That Navarro is 22, plays catcher, and has a .740 OPS with 258ABs in the big leagues.

James Loney, who doesnt hit for enough power to play his given position, and has done nothing so far either at the MLB level. It just doesnt make any logical sense. You have one guy, that even if you dont like him, has the numbers to back up that he's a reasonable option at his position. You have another guy, that even if you really like, doesnt have the numbers to back up his reasonable position. They both are about the same age.

How one guy can be discarded into the trash heap, while the other is esteemed so higly by Canuck (and he'll admit this), is baffling to me.

It'd just seem to me if you like Loney, that you have to like Navarro too. Its possible to not like either. Its also possible to like Navarro, and not Loney. But to like Loney, but not Navarro seems illogical.

But to like Loney, but not Navarro seems illogical.

Not to someone who values defense its not illogical.