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SI.com
NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
Colletti and Depo
World Baseball Classic
Minor League Broadcasters
Slow Starts
Eric Gagne
Groundball Pitchers
Dodger Prospects
Albert Pujols
Humbled Angels
You Be the Manager
Eric Gagne II
Unreliable Relievers
Revived Angels
It's Okay To Sell
Dodger Turnaround
Andre Ethier
Padres-Dodgers Showdown
NL Final Weekend
Mets-Dodgers NLDS
Postseason ratings
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2004-05 Rookie Dramas
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Writing on Improv Shows
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Guest Actors
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Donald Trump and Golf
2006 Emmys Nominees*
*Comedy Series
*Comedy Director
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*Comedy Actor
*Comedy Supporting Actor
Blue's Clues
Lizzy Caplan
Ann Donahue
CMT: Giants
CMA Awards
Little Miss Sunshine
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Showrunners vs. Censors
Little Children
Breaking and Entering
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Knights of Prosperity
Office Online
2007 Screenplay Noms
Friday Night Lights
Robert Benton
ABC Fridays
Rookie Actors
Global Casting
2007 Pilot Casting
Sublime Slime
Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
A case for having the option ... my latest at SI.com.
Out here in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have infamously won only one playoff game since 1988. But they've been in contention for a playoff berth nearly every season, especially before the non-waiver trading deadline. Not surprisingly, the team has consistently been what you would call a "buyer" that entire time. And it has pretty much gotten them nowhere except a steady jog on the also-ran's treadmill.* * *This year's team was considered by many the favorite to win the National League West but has now lost 13 of its past 14 games, its worst two weeks since a franchise-record 16-game losing streak in 1944. That's right -- 62 years! And yet with their deficit a barely surmountable 7 1/2 games, the question remains, are fans willing to let the front office start waiting 'til next year, now?
News flash to the executives: On message boards Wednesday throughout Los Angeles, a popular answer was yes.
Buy or sell. That's the traditional trading deadline dilemma. It's an intellectual discussion that disguises a battle of machismo. If you're a seller, you're a loser. You're walking away from the fight.
But even if you're walking away from a fight that you can win, maybe you can still walk tall. ...
Also today, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus looks at how acquiring Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Lee would affect the Dodgers' playoff chances (among other teams).
"We can quantify the impact of picking up a player like Soriano by comparing his projected MLVr to that of the players whom he'd be replacing," Silver writes.
For example, here's the effect of Carlos Lee replacing Kenny Lofton, according to Silver:
Carlos Lee (+.159 runs/game) + Kenny Lofton (-.047 runs/game) = +.206 runs/game, x 58 games remaining = 11.9 runs added, = 1.19 wins added
(I don't do the math; I just report it.)
Silver then goes on to examine the impact of a player producing one additional win for the remainder of the season on a team's playoff probability. The Dodgers had a 9.6 percent chance of making the playoffs at the time Silver wrote the article, according to BP - a player like Lee would up that probability to approximately 15 percent.
"Even for a team like the White Sox that could desperately use another star player," Silver concludes, "the market price for one of these outfielders should be a second- or third-tier prospect, and not much more."
* * *
Finally, you might enjoy participating in this rate-your-ballpark survey.
Just curious, but it seems that a lot of your SI columns that I've read (if not all) take things from a Dodgers point-of-view. Is this a natural function of your bias, or does SI want it that way, as a de facto Dodgers column?
Pay no attention to this Nate Silver character. Kenny Lofton's veteran leadership, basestealing, and slick centerfield play will put you over the top.
And that argument with Brad Penny was all Penny's fault. Just ask Bill Plaschke.
I looked at the ballpark survey and I discoverd that I would be giving Dodger Stadium some pretty low scores due to the traffic, food choice questions and surrounding entertainment and food choices. That would not give an accurate reflection of what I think but I do see how those surveys often can make something look worse than it really is to the respondent of the survey.
Is Andre Ethier the best minor league player the Dodgers have acquired in a deal since Pedro Guerrero?
2 I don't think the two goals are mutually exclusive, is maybe what Jon's saying. DePo we could've trusted to understand. Ned I got no confidence whatsoever. (Which implys that, for McCourt, subtlety is something you were supposed to learn in high-school but he missed that day while working as his daddy's foreman.)
Instead it fixates on all non-baseball related stadium aspects. Some of these are important and relevant, but many are not things that I care about.
Until tomorrow that is.
I am guessing that a lot of people will be anxiously checking back forth Monday morning.
With no game that day, should make for an angst filled Monday.
* It takes over an hour just to get out of the parking lot after a game
* It takes over 30 minutes to park before the game
* It takes 30 minutes to get from the lot to my seat
* The lots seem to be numbered in no helpful order
My relevant Futurama quote of the day (I'll try to keep this from a daily habit): Fry: "Is there any way we can do this with you going and me staying?"
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5820522
(Or, he might not.)
Anyone want him as a reclamation project?
Leaving is always an issue since 95% of the time I stay for the whole game.
The other parks, Anaheim is just one huge lot and I have only gone to one game in the past 10-12 years, PetCo, again not many games, and I had to walk around some railroad tracks, not well setup, should try to figure out their public transportation system. San Francisco, took public transportaion, Arizona, lots across the street and Colorado, has the best set up, good public transportation and good restaurants around their ballpark.
http://tinyurl.com/qzu38
Guzman has been playing a lot of 1B and seems to be playing better since the break, stealing some bases too.
ANYONE is an improvement over Izzy.
Trying to deal Nomar is imperative right now. Imagine how good of a player he could bring back. That's not going to happen, so if Lofton, Baez, Saito, Izturis, Cruz, Ledee etc are all here in five days I'm going to vomit. We have absolutely zero chance of winning this division and our GM's obsession with signing and/or trading for garbage veterans with high price tags has gotten us nowhere. Anyone who isn't going to get arbitration needs to be dealt.
As far as next year, the Kent extension looks worse and worse. Without that, and by ditching a couple guys like Izturis and Hendrickson we could conceivably have enough cash to sign Zito, Schmidt, Soriano. Of course, that's letting Nomar walk as well and using Loney. Anyways, I'm looking forward to an offseason filled with Todd Walker-like acqusitions.
Dodgers running into a hot Nationals squad -- they've won six straight.
I was also very impressed by Coors Field. Great neighborhood with lots of restaurants and bars. Excellent public transportation, especially for a smaller city (don't know about parking as I took public transit). Petco and SBC are also nice. I hate admitting SBC is nice, because San Franciscans are so snobby about everything in their town.
I always thought Dodger Stadium could use a Hall of Fame Museum either out in the parking lot or in the stadium. Something like a Heritage Hall.
I thought that survey should have had a question about how comfortable you felt rooting for the visiting team in the ballpark, because that's actually useful information.
Something like, is it ever a good idea to cheer for the away team:
() not if you value your life
() as long as it's not the __GIANTS__
() sure, but avoid __________ section
() sure, they're good sports
() everyone there is a fan of the away team
Couldn't agree more. The team has such a rich history, a museum (no doubt complete with a gift shop) would be a nice addition in the parking lot.
Not to mention that if you're not familiar with the stadium, it would be easier to find your way around the parking lot.
At the moment, the Dodgers face a dilemma. Do they: (1) focus on the future by waving the white flag on 2006 and trading the veterans for youngsters, thereby decreasing the chances of winning this year, and possibly decreasing the number of people who show up to watch the games, but increasing the chances of winning in the future, or do they (2) hold onto those veterans and/or trade youngsters for other veterans, in an effort to maximize the chances of winning this year, and possibly maintaining the number of people who show up to watch the games, but decreasing the chances of winning in the future?
In my opinion, if this administration were truly committed to winning, they would give up on 2006 and try to trade the vets for some youngsters who will help in the future. If they fail to at least make such an effort, I will conclude that they are more concerned with profits than with winning.
First, Nomar got hurt at exactly the wrong time, who is going to trade for a player with his history and also in the midst of his first slump. It sounds like he won't play at all during the weekend which further limits his trade value.
Lofton, who has more value than Cruz or Ledee, would not get you much but I could see him being moved because they could very well bring Kemp back up to play CF.
Ledee did not fare well in his last trade deadline deal and again since he is coming back from injury, only a team that does not need an everyday player would make a deal and what kind of deal would that be.
Cruz had no value and playing him in games where he bats lefthanded does not help.
Not sure why Saito gets mentioned but he probably could get you something but the downside is that he is cheap and you have control of his contract for a while.
Izzy remains as the one real player that could be valuable to a team like Boston or Toronto, so I will be interested to see what happens with that.
If the Dodgers dealt Nomar, Izzy or Saito, they would be given the label of "Seller" but anyone else could be seen as addition (prospects) by substraction.
However, the odds or dealing Nomar or Saito would be pretty long, Izzy on the otherhand, I will have to be seeing what's coming out of Boston and Toronto (interestingly Toronto is out in Oakland this weekend, so at least they will be in the same timezone).
I'm not sure beating NL West teams right now qualifies you as being a hot team.
Also, since my season tickets are in the Top Deck, I paid a total of $6 a game for two seats. Just out of principle I absolutely refuse to pay $10 a game for parking.
Anyone ever read the Ray Bradbury story "The Pedestrian?" Walking in LA always reminds me of that story.
Final thought on Dodger Stadium, I am no fan of the McCourts, but I think they have improved the stadium a bit with the new seats, the picnic area outside, and overall refurbishment (I like the idea of putting seats where we had all that extra foul territory). I even like that we have a real dirt warning track now instead of that rubber junk that just caused injuries and ground rule doubles. Not crazy about all the new advertising, but it isn't too bad. Still nice that we have a real stadium name and not a corporate name that changes every couple of years. It is still truly the people's stadium.
Kent's extension was by far the worst decision out of Colletti in his tenure here.
It means three things - one, we're stuck with Kent long past his expiration date; two, he's virtually untradeable now; and three, Ned wasn't going to trade him anyway.
Agree for the most part, although I do hope Kent can bounce back from these nagging injuries. However, with age being a factor, I think we could see a sharp downside from now on. I doubt we could get much for him at this point, but you never know. Some teams may really be better off with a power hitting second baseman vs. what they have now at that position. It is all for naught though as I doubt Ned would consider trading him.
I think that deal is more viable as just Kent for the prospects.
Not saying it's likely, but a guy can hope...
Has anyone else forfeited a (substantial) contract by retiring?
If you believe he's just having a down year (and Carlos Beltran had a much worse season last year than Drew is having this season), then you keep him. Some players just have bad years. Paul Konerko has had a bad season in his prime also. Mark Teixiera is having an awful season compared to his career averages.
11mils for Drew's career averages of .280/.390/.500 is a good price. Declaring a guy done when he's only 30yrs old, is very risky.
http://tinyurl.com/zo7vt
Even in this washout of a season by Drew's standards, he's still waaay better than Shawn Green, who's been "reborn" this year.
Shoot, the top 5 runner-ups to Lance last year were all DQ'd right before this year's race. It seems to be an arms race where everyone is afraid to stay clean because they know everyone else is doping.
Some of us think the same way about baseball.
"Viva Pol Pot!"
I think Hendrickson for Navarro, Tomko as a starter, and signing Lofton to play CF, has brought Ned's grade down so low, that at least for this year it'd be near impossible for him to get a passing grade.
I mean, the guy considered Martin an untouchable, and traded Navarro for Mark Hendrickson...! Thats insanity on many levels.
Gonzo is close to 40.
And defensively, its not even close.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
As for the rest of the talk, most of you are right we couldn't get anything for Nomar now.
37-
The issue with trading these guys isn't what we'd be getting back since ANY return is good. We're not going to keep these players, so you might as well give them the Sandy Alomar treatment. Get rid of them for a low level prospect and move on. Saito gets mentioned because he actually has a ton of value. I also believe you're wrong on how long we control him...I think he's only signed to a one year deal. Relievers are going for a premium right now...we're not going anywhere, so why not cash in on it while we can?
All I know is that I've got the heebie jeebie's about this offseason. We're going to have a lot of money come off the books and if Colletti had half a brain (which he doesn't) he'd ditch all the worthless parts like Izturis to pile up as much money he can to make a strong run after a combo of Zito/Schmidt/Soriano.
so
Neddie would be crazy NOT to tade Drew for Gonzo straight up if Gonzo would waive the NTC. Drew would be gone, Gonzo would be gone at season send and we'd have an extra 33 mils over 3 seasons to get a run producer, not a player who's greatest arsenal is the walk.
Tomko should never have been signed in the first place. ESEPCIALLY not for two years.
who cares who would have started? Tomko is terrible...just about anyone could do equally as bad. Heck, we could have had Jackson post those numbers for a fraction of the cost...and we wouldn't have gotten Baez in the process.
Face it, the guy you call "Midas" is a terrible GM and outside of the Eithier move, has made awful move after awful move.
Also, does it concern anyone that Loney's Isolated paitence is only like .45 or so? Or is it that he's just getting too many good pitches to hit, so he's not waiting around?
But, if he starts selling guys like Lofton and Izzy to play guys like LaRoche and Kemp, and then starts making better moves, will you please give him another chance?
I mean, Paul didn't get a fair chance yes, but to judge Colleti this quickly is even worse.
Drew: .281 / 11
Gonzo: .279 / 3
Green: .268 / 2
Clearly Drew is the best of the bunch. And remember, this is a BAD YEAR for Drew.
Laroche in september and hopefully Izzy is gone.
As far as Loney goes, I just think he's a big time contact hitter kind of like Nomar. When he was with the team he didn't K much, but he also didn't hit for a good average. The good thing is he was putting the bat on the ball the vast majority of the time. I think he's just one of those hitters who doesn't walk much, but doesn't K much either.
I mean, Paul didn't get a fair chance yes, but to judge Colleti this quickly is even worse.*
The problem is that Flanders' moves have been about fifty steps beyond illogical. I'm not judging Colletti quickly...I've sat through his terrible signings, his terrible trades and STILL waited to see how they've panned out...and look, our team is awful. I've held out judgment until now but there's simply no denying it. Signing Mueller for two years when you have Laroche for '07? How does that make ANY sense? Especially when you could have just put Aybar at third from the get go....I honestly wonder sometimes what this guy is thinking.
The key to your first paragraph is "starts making better moves". That's the thing, he won't make better moves. He's already proven over and over that he's completely incompetent. If he manages to somehow get out from under Kent's extension and deals dead weight like Izturis while bringing in Zito or Schmidt then I may start to look at him another way....
If the Dodgers just want to prove Izturis is healthy, they could have just kept him at Vegas and had him play SS for that team.
I dont understand what they are doing with Izturis. He has no future with the team at 3rd base, so why not play LaRoche,Guzman, or Aybar at 3rd. Like Bobby pointed out, Izzy's one of the worst 3rd basemen in baseball. No other team is going to want him as a 3rd basemen. At the same time, the Dodgers are killing his trade value by showing off his anemic bat and NOT letting him play SS.
Common sense would say Izturis should be at Vegas, playing SS, and putting up good offensive numbers.
Playing 3rd, putting up bad offensive numbers, in LA does him nor the team any good.
Already gotten rid of Perez and Alomar, so you know I'm pretty sure that guys like Cruz, Ledee, Lofton, and Baez are next.
And again, less than 1 year is not enough of a sample size to judge a guy.