That piece was most ethie.

Buyback days. Teachers know what buyback days are. They mean... school is starting soon. Summer is fast becoming my favorite time of the year, ever.

Grittle is a blast, IMHO. I don't know if he's been getting criticized in the threads--I've got some catching up to do on this site--but I like having him as Dodger manager. My friend will say it's only because I'm comparing him to the previous manager and he may have a point.

The Ethiest line in the piece was the one about the "robust brew of...stats".

Mmm, brew...Mmm, stats...

2 - As someone said in the comments recently, the fact that Little has escaped any kind of consistent criticism on this site speaks volumes for him.

When I make cursory glances at other message boards, I have seen him criticized harshly, though.

3 - Are stats an ale or a lager?

Oh, there's loads to love about Grittle. As has been noted here before, he's flexible in ways that uh, other Dodger managers of recent vintage were not. Plus he's hiliarious. The recent remarks about Maddux--"Well, you've got to give credit to Rick Honeycut for turning him around"--are my current fave. Plus he doesn't throw his own players under the bus. Really, I'm happy with him and I don't think I'm alone.

4 - Criticized on what grounds?

Grady is HI-larious. What's not to like?

I can only think of five or six truly boneheaded things Grady has done this year.

This immediately vaults him to managerial excellence.

9-I'd say that's fair. Really when you consider the sheer number of opportunities managers have to be boneheaded, a handful per season is amply permissible.

Just so long as, uh, they don't happen in the late innings of the league championship series or anything like that...

7 - Usual things - lineups, pitching changes, pinch-hitting decisions.

5 Traditional counting stats like RBI and Batting Average are light and refreshing, like a lager. More formulaic rate stats like OBP, SLG, and OPS are richer, ranging from amber to brown ale.

VORP is a stout.

Update above on Kershaw and Elbert.

From afar, the things I like about Grittle include: he doesn't take himself too seriously, he doesn't take credit for success, he's not afraid to put players in position to fail (i.e. he gave the youngsters a chance), and most importantly, he does not ask and answer his own questions.

Every manager can be criticized for something, and some managers can be criticized for a lot of things [glances towards Pittsburgh], but I'm not sure any non-hypothetical manager could've done a better job with this team than Grady has.

and Russell Martin as a backup catcher to Seattle's Kenji Johjima.

I'm sure most DT'ers agree that Kenji Johjima in not a rookie.

12 - LOL

16. Ttrue, but neither was Nomo and neither is Saito. We can't have it both ways.

16 Nor Saito, either.

12 Very nicely done. Cheers.

16 But he is a stud.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking for a left-handed-hitting reserve such as Gload to replace Ricky Ledee, whom the New York Mets claimed on waivers Aug. 9.

That was in the Chicago Tribune today. I have no idea if it's true or if the front office has really soured on Loney as Ledee's replacement, so interpret it as you want.

Dodger farmhands Scott Elbert and Clayton Kershaw are Nos. 1 and 2 on Kevin Goldstein's list of left-handed pitching prospects in the minors

Combine that with the 8th-best lefthander in the American League, and, well, wow...just wow...

16 - I'm fine calling him a rookie. Hard to complain when Saito's on there.

12 - Mmmm.

22 - I give it a big "whatever." The Dodgers are short on left-handed bats, so they could still be looking for another one even assuming they still like Loney. But I'll not hold my breath.

Speaking of Donovan's article, who wants to join my crusade to rid the world of catcher ERA?

22 I can't believe that the front office has soured on Loney. It may just be a Trib reporter who doesn't get why the Dodgers would keep Loney over Ledee speculating.

28 I can't believe Ned would want Gload and not Ledee.

I think to mix things up, we should spell the player's names as Saitoh and Jojima.

16 But he is a stud.

haven't seen much of him but agreed.

Reprint from previous thread:
Just curious: If DT posters got to vote for one free agent pitcher to acquire in the off-season, Who would it be? Zito? Schmidt? Matsuzaka? Somebody else?

29 There's that, too.

Loney's OPS for August is 1.049. Nobody could get sour about that.

27 - I'll be a footsoldier.

93,94,95 from the last thread.
Reg, as an avid reader of the former Dodgermath, I pretty much have respect for whatever you have to say. And I agree with your order of the pitchers to be wanted.
Zito has had some great BABIP numbers, never abover .300 etc, but other thank knuckleballers this is supposed to be due to luck right? Do you think that because of the severe break of his curve and its slow speed, he induces more weak contact leading to that low BABIP. I know peripheral numbers aren't as important when a players career BABIP numbers are low, but the utter weakness of his fastball/change scares me--the second his curve starts to decline, his time as a productive starter will be over. And I wouldn't mine signing him either, but only for 8-9 mil a year. IMO he's not even as good as Penny, just living off the CY reputation.
Also I think his lack of injury can be attributed to his low stress delivery with low stress(read slow) pitches. If you're throwing 84-85, it's not surprising that you may not be as sore.

27.
And I will join that battle anyday, I was reading an article linked from Buster Olney's blog about how Johjima has been terrible defensively this year because all the Mariners pitchers ERA are higher with thim than with his backup. When will people start believing in sample size. Otherwise, Johjima is rated as an average defensive catcher by most advanced metrics.

Speaking of Donovan's article, who wants to join my crusade to rid the world of catcher ERA?

Is there no systematic variation in catcher ERA that cannot be explained by non-catcher-related factors...?

I'm pretty sure Matsuzaka needs one more year to be a free agent. I think it will take a posting to get him. Either way, I would go after him. He has proved himself to be extremely durable in Japan. Plus, if he was on the Dodgers, I could at least watch every fifth game live on NHK.

Fantasy baseball question:

In my league, I'm allowed to keep four rookies. Without getting into too much detail about the keeper rules, if I keep a guy, I have the opportunity to hold onto him forever. There are six players I have that are worth keeping: Johjima, Billingsley, Broxton, Andy Marte, Jeremy Sowers, and Shin Soo Choo. Since the trade deadline is approaching, I want to deal at least one of the guys I can't keep.

Johjima is the only one I'm really sure about not trading since I can't lose his bat this year. The other five are up for grabs. Which three would you hold on to?

I can't say I haven't wondered how Hendrickson would do with Martin catching him instead of Hall. But I also can't say I've expected the results to be much different.

Extra Innings and Gameday Audio are working again!

Moral: Don't let crazy drunk girls into your apartment because one of them will kick your cable splitter in such a way that every channel you own comes in fine except for the baseball games you paid $160 for.

Now back to my hermitage.

35 Correct. The theory on Zito is that his curve ball is so good, it has the same effect on balls in play as a knuckleball.

I'm no expert on how things like breaking pitches decline as a pitcher gets older, so I can't comment on that either way.

Right now, the Dodgers stacked farm system and large budget gives them the ability to overpay free agents, since the budget is pretty clear after 2007 and the departing players can be replaced on the cheap. Because of this, I have no problem giving Zito more than he deserves, though if it starts getting in to the 14-15 million per year range, I'd back out.

Something like five years, sixty million is overpaying, but I'd be okay with it.

32

i'd bet on the younger, but I've heard Matsuzaka has thrown a ton of pithes in Japan, I'd be happy with either Matsuzaka or Zito.

ps can you imagine next year (pitching staff) wow.

Speaking of Hendrickson, he would be the one I would send down when Elmer comes back. As the 5th starter, stretch will not get a sniff in the post season. 12 pitchers are not needed when you are down to a 4-man rotation. In fact, a case could be made for 10 pitchers.

39 Easy. Hold Broxton, Billingsley, Johjima. You need the catcher for now, and Broxton has too much closer potential in the next few years. Assuming you have to bid/"pay" for players, in a world where the JJ Putzes of the world go for $8 and up, the Ox is a keeper for sure. Billingsley has a lot of long-term value as a cheap, potentially very effective starter; I wouldn't give that up.

38
I would be shocked if Seibu didn't post Matsuzaka. They would want the money.

Despite being in first place and despite being owned by one of Japan's largest corporations, Seibu still sold the naming rights to its stadium, so it's now the Invoice Seibu Dome, and they almost never sell out.

A lot of that is because although they are nominally a Tokyo area team, they play in an area that's about as easy to get to as Colton on a Friday night on a holiday weekend. (Flashbacking to a really bad traffic experience here.) There are direct trains from Tokyo to the Seibu Dome, but I was never able to get one and ended up having to change trains twice. Of course, it's the Seibu train that takes you to the Seibu Dome.

Oh, and the Dome isn't closed on the sides either.

http://home.earthlink.net/~japanbbtrip2003/id25.html

37.
Pitcher's are so hard to predict and sample sizes between different catchers would be so small that it would be nearly impossible to differentiate, I think.
Also, from a non-numbers point of view, very few catchers actually select pitches. Other than that, how can a catcher affect pitcher's ERA? The only thing I can think of is certain catchers block balls better in the dirt, giving pitchers more confidence to aim low in the zone.

What helps Grady is that Los Angeles is not Boston and Dodger fans don't come close to Red Sox Nation in its obsession about every little move.

I am sure a comment like that in the Boston Globe would have caused a meltdown in the Tri-state area while to me, its just something that makes me smile.

After years of the Mechanical Man and prior to that, a burned out Davey Johnson, Grady is really refreshing like an ice cold glass of lemonade.

And I knew this year was going to be different once I heard Grady doing Jiffy Lube commercials.

41 I appreciate you support of the team but are having crazy drunk girls in your apartment ever a bad idea? Maybe age makes me forget the downside of that scenario.

39,45.
I say Billingsley, Johjima, and Broxton or Marte. Sowers is playing out of his mind right now, beware the finesse lefty(Zach Duke) and remember that it's fantasy, so k's matter just as much as ERA. Broxton's value is all in how soon you think he will be a "closer."

With regards to the fantasy question, I meant three players in addition to Johjima.

Choo is the one I'm the most torn about. I don't think he's going to be a superstar big leaguer, but his speed means he could be a fantasy stud.

With this in mind, I'll probably look to deal Sowers.

49 I was just going to ask the same question. Crazy drunk girls in an apartment are like the exact opposite of snakes on a plane.

41 I'm curious
a) how you were able to find out the problem was with the splitter,
b) how you were able to pinpoint that a crazy, drunk girl had kicked the splitter, and
c)when is your next party?

52 - Snakes on a Plane II: Crazy Drunk Snakes!

49 While on the surface this would seem to be a grand idea, the truth of the matter is that crazy drunk people (no matter what gender) eventually sober up, but they don't "sane up," if you know what I mean. And then you're stuck with crazy sober people and no baseball games you paid $160 for. ;)

47 I fully agree with that. Things like calling the game and framing pitches probably do have some effect, they just get lost in the natural flucations that pitchers make every year.

Would the movie snakes on a plane be better if it was snakes on a plane full of drunk crazy girls?

MLB Extra Innings Package: $160
New Cable Splitter: $3.99
Crazy Drunk Girls in Your Apartment: Priceless

32 I'd definitely make a run at Matsuzaka. The only question for me is, how much $$$ is he worth? The Yankees and Mariners will probably pull out all the stops for him. I'm thinking $25m just for the rights. And then you still have to sign the guy. Who knows what that will take, especially considering Boras is his agent.

54 Nobody ever gets tired of all these [insert profanity] crazy, drunk girls in this [insert profanity] apartment.

52 I would guess that if you listed things people were scard of, flying and snakes would make the top ten if not the top 5.

60 Hey, no discussing politics.

Regarding snakes on planes, you can go to some website and a recording of Sam Jackson will call your friends' phones and, um, strongly encourage them to go watch "Snakes on a Plane" with you.

I got one of these calls from my buddy Jeff. It was quite amusing. One giant leap for viral marketing!

And I knew this year was going to be different once I heard Grady doing Jiffy Lube commercials.

combine Jiffy Lube & Grady's voice in Los Angeles! (priceless)

62 I was wondering if that would get me in trouble.

I guess I'll find out when my account gets deleted.

Jon, just curious--when did you interview Ethier, Little, et al? Does si.com give you a press pass to certain games?

No, I mean crazy.

One in particular, banging her head on the hardwood floor, embracing a stereo speaker as if it was one of those full body pillows (legs wrapped around it and everything), forcing me to play "November Rain" repeatedly at full volume, smoking cigarettes (what a waste!) in my apartment.

The next morning I found a half empty can of Coors Light in the freezer, which is a scenario wrong on more levels that I care to get into.

The highlight was when she had to be forcibly restrained from taking a fully-clothed bath in the tub I hadn't cleaned in about two months (I cleaned it yesterday, just in case.)

If any of you think that sounds like fun we can trade anytime, and I'll spend a nice quiet evening with your wife (and even your kids, if they're not demonspawn).

61 The sequel will be "Public Speaking on a Plane". Or maybe "Relationship Commitment on a Submarine".

68

LOL + Danny Thomas coffee spit take!

66 - I interviewed them Friday before the game. I got a press pass this year.

68 - DePodesta, Sasha Cohen and Plaschke on a Plane

70. Can there only be 2 parachutes?(Guess who doesn't get one...)

71

wild guess...(plaschke)

68 Vinyl siding salemen on a plane.

70 So Jon, what's it like to be in the same room with Bill Plaschke?

As a disclaimer, I went to an event at the UCLA Book Festival last year and saw Plaschke interview Frank Deford, who had just written a book about Christy Mathewson and John McGraw. Plaschke took time to blast Bonds, steroids, Depodesta (Moneyball), etc.

So I have actually basked in the presence of Plaschke, I also saw and heard T.C. Boyle, Carrie Fisher and Eric Idle, all of them were much more entertaining than Bill.

74.
I have had the "pleasure" of meeting Mr Bill 4-5 years ago after winning some LA Times sports writing award in high school. He was REALLY nice, suprisingly enough, and could even remember my piece, but god I hate him as a columnist. I'm sure Simers is actually a terrible person in real life, though.

67 In other words wrapping themselves seductively around inanimate objects, volunteering for wet t-shirt duty, enjoying getting dirty -- one man's trash is another man's treasure.

75 I think he probably he is a nice guy and I believe it was really hard for him not to jab Depodesta in yesterday's column (and I agree with Rob @ 6-4-2 that Ethier, just being named Texas League Player of the Year, was not exactly a sleeper prospect) that those types of columns is where he excels.

71 The punchline to that joke is always "well, the smartest man on the plane just jumped out with my lunch sack"

75 TJ is a very nice person.

74 - I've never had a bad moment with Plaschke. I've actually never heard of anyone not finding him pleasant in person.

So what would be a good road trip after this latest run.

I am expecting 5-4, 6-3 would certainly validate the last 3 weeks and anything better might make me start projecting the playoff rotation.

The good news is that our number 5 starter, whoever it is, is only scheduled to pitch once.

So get your predictions early.

76

I can definitely see that side of it, and I'm not regularly opposed to any of the concepts you've listed. Believe me.

This time things just felt really un-good.

Jon, thanks for all those links and info.

Over 48 hours without Dodger game is going to be rough but we're glad to have DT to keep us going.

It would be great to see another winning streak but it would be nicer to see more consistency from our team rest of the year.

Old Friend Odalis Perez taking on the White Sox in Chicago. 2-2 after two. Both pitchers (Buehrle going for the White Sox) have given up a solo home run in each of the first two innings.

I somewhat expected.

Odalis is the star of today's RGC!

There's still plenty of time for Perez to Odalisize the game.

84 - Yes, though the definition of that word involves his team getting a big lead first.

80 Winning all three series.

This must be old friend day, with Jeff Weaver pitching against the Reds and OP pitching against the Pale Hosers. Also, Sandy Alomar is in the lineup against Odalis (wasn't he supposed to be OP's caddy?) And there is hope that Baez will get in the game against the Nationals. And who knows maybe Ricky Ledee will get a pinch hit assignment later in the Mets game.

And you thought the Dodgers were off today.

Kevin Goldstein: That Jon Weisman is a cool guy too. I don't say that about a lot of bloggers.

Who cares what he says about the prospects, now everyone in BP land is going, who is Jon Weisman?

The Alomar as Odalis's personal catcher experiment lasted one game. It didn't go well. I was there.

I think Lt. Bookman tells all his friends that Bob is a cool guy.

And Baez joins in the fun in DC.

90 - Bob Timmermann's nickname is Joyboy.

88.
Heh I asked that question, I never get questions answered.

I'm examing a new book on how to operate a casino.

I have news for anyone planning to visit a casino soon:

The House will win.

There are lots of charts and tables showing how that will happen.

78 Thank you, Marty. ;^)

94.
Damnit, I'm going to vegas tomorrow.

93 Since he has ranked Loney, Dewitt, Abreu, Hu (lowest), LaRoche, Kemp and now Elbert and Kershaw among the best in their positions during his postional rankings, while Arizona and Tampa Bay have some higher ceiling position players, the Dodgers should be in the top 5-6 teams depending on if Kemp does not get anymore at bats (doubtful) so he will still qualify as a rookie and none of the other guys suffer any set backs.

96 If you mail me all the money you have, you can save a bundle on carfare.

97.
Yeah I know we have a great system etc, but right now it's producing hitters, with one starter to show. While I'm excited as hell for Elbert and Kershaw, given the lessons of EJ I'm going to wait on their somewhat distant callups to get super excited. I was 3 in 88, there haven't been a lot of highlights in my dodger-life, and I can't put in words how excited I would be if we have 3 quality starters make the majors.

96
Do you want to see the table that shows how much of a plane ticket you should be comped depending on how much baccarat you play?

For example, if your average baccarat bet is going to be $1000 and you go through 15 shoes, you should be comped for up to $2,980 in air fare.

This table was computed by someone at Cornell.

Kyle Lohse vs. Jeff Weaver - scoreless through four!

101 Some would say that Danny Baez pitching a scoreless innning would require even more !!!

100.
I go to Columbia, apparently we look down on cornell.
(just kidding, I swear)
But you can beat the odds on blackjack if you get an 8 deck shoe, and my little math nerd mind is going to have a lot of fun.

One out away from Weaver and Baez throwing 8 combined scoreless innings.

From p. 223 of the book

"Blackjack is the only casino game that can be beaten by the player. A player skilled in card counting can actually play with an advantage ..."

The house is aiming for a 0.73% edge and they will adjust accordingly.

A-Rod made an error (nunber 22) on a pop-up today, while in a 12-2 game, it should not matter, there is no doubt what the callers will be hot about after the game.

105
Do they no longer offer Tic-Tac-Toe in casinos...?

105.
The way they adjust is they make you move to a higher minimum bet table so that your ability to vary your bet relative to your total playable money is significantly reduced, significantly reducing the advantage of card counting. You can also only really do it with a good 8 deck shoe.

108

They can also move you to a busier or slower table to change the number of hands you get per hour.

There isn't much that casinos haven't figured out. It's like a license to print money!

109.
Hence the popularity of poker, the math guys can grind away there with a significant statistical advantage and the house won't care, because all they do is take their rake.

Jon, does Plaschke or anyone in the Dodgers organization know of and or read your site? If so, could you share with us who?? :)
vr, Xei

I hate seeing Sports tv channels being wasted on poker tournaments. Next thing you know they will be televising keno or mah jong(sp?). vr, Xei

Is nobody else outraged that John Donovan picked Kenji Johjima over Russ Martin on his all-rookie team on SI.com? That's an outrageous claim that can't even be backed up by the numbers. Please send that guy a comment so he knows how stupid he looked by doing that.

111 - I think that most people involved with the Dodgers are aware of it at this point. How often they read it, I couldn't tell you.

114 I only hope they can get the concessions lines to move faster.

Here's a quick breakdown of the Russ Martin/Kenji Johjima numbers, by the way.

Martin (83 games): 43 runs, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs, 47 RBI, 8 stolen bases, .303 avg, .370 obp, .830 ops.

Johjima (108 games): 48 runs, 18 doubles, 1 triple, 13 home runs, 53 rbi, 1 stolen base, .298 avg, .339 obp, .797 ops. Please defend your selection.

1-1 Cincinnati vs. St. Louis - Top 8 - Reds have a runner on 3rd with one out

Canseco as a pitcher. Is there a more laughable story in sports this year?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2552112

PS: I'd hate to be the guy that stuck out to him. How embarrassing!

It's hard to beat someone with a name like Kenji Johjima.

The Reds couldn't score. Going to the bottom of the 8th in the Mound City.

Odalis is probably done for the day. Not a terrible outing: seven innings, four runs, six strike outs, five hits, one walk.

Only problem was two runs.

Ahh, the Reds. What other NL playoff contender can relieve Kyle Lohse with the likes of Ryan Franklin?

Odalis actually did out pitch Buerhle despite allowing more runs. Not that that's much of an accomplishment nowadays.

122
Of course, the Dodgers can send out Mark Hendrickson and bring in Giovanni Carrara.

124 Then shut the door with Aaron Sele.

The Yankees are headed for a loss and the last two pitchers for the Orioles have been Russ Ortiz and Bruce Chen.

Jon's excellent article raises a related question that I've wanted to ask some of our minor-league gurus:

How much of the Dodgers' success in the draft lately has been the result of finding studs that other teams overlook, and how much has been due to great draft position? This is not a thinly veiled critique - it's a sincere question. I'm sure it's a little of both, but I guess what I'm really wondering is, how often have other teams picked guys ahead of the Dodgers that the Dodgers or Nate or Canuck or Hobos or whoever else pays good attention to these things would have passed on?

For example, with Kershaw, it seems that those in the know were pretty sure he'd fall to the Dodgers, and he did, and that's great. Were the guys picked ahead of him all obviously better? Will Logan White start looking less magical if the team starts getting lousier draft slots?

Baseball isn't like football or basketball, where teams often have to draft for need, allowing someone like, say, Aaron Rodgers to fall halfway down the first round because none of the teams before the Packers needed a QB. In baseball, given the long development time and huge number of trades, my guess is that stockpiling any kind of talent is a good idea, to be sorted out later by the market.

No game today, so I figured I'd throw out a complicated question.

127
I was actually wondering the same thing. Also, how much is the Dodgers drafting success based on their ability to sign their draft choices (a certain Royals farm hand notwithstanding.) Do Dodger draft picks fall into their lap because the teams drafting above them simply don't think they can sign them?

Some things to think about as I cheer for the D-Backs and Padres to lose (I am not cheering for the Giants to win).

116-

I'll absolutely take Martin. Just by the offensive numbers alone it looks like Johjima may have a bit more HR power, but that's about it.

I'll take the guy who gets on base more when it comes to catchers over the few extra HR. Not to mention Martin is actually pretty speedy compared to other catchers.

Not saying I don't like Johjima...but I just think Martin is the better player right now..but not by a ton.

Would like to check out the defensive numbers, but I'm headed out to get Pho! Haven't had that in about two years.

Real pho? Or faux pho?

127 I will take a crack, obviously Ethier was a product of a trade but part of Logan White's philosophy was to take high ceiling high school pitchers (Billingsley, Elbert and Kershaw) while others were taking college players. The Dodgers were fortunate that Hochevar went as the first pick (which no one foresaw until the last week or so before the draft and that Andrew Miller was passed for signability issues which let them get Kershaw at 7.

I don't think anyone knew for sure and the fact that they were going to pick Bryan Morris at 7 and were able to get him at 25/26 should tell you about their philosophy.

Were the guys ahead of Kershaw better, off the top of my head, Hochevar and Miller should see the majors within a year or so, Evan Longoria has gotten raves thus far, the only one I can think of that may be questionable is the Rockies pick of Reynolds, a college pitcher out of Stanford I think. And that has more to deal with his ceiling.

As far as finding players other teams overlook, the first round always gets the most notice but Kemp was a 6th round pick I believe, Russ was in the late teens, LaRoche was taken in the 38th round because no one thought he would sign (Dodgers signed him for a million). On the other hand, Loney, Billingsley, Broxton, Elbert, Kershaw, Morris and Mattingley were all taken in the fist or second round.

No game today, so I figured I'd throw out a complicated question

Complicated questions on game days are "OK" in my book...

I wonder, has Hendrickson ever tried to throw a slider? If not, I wonder why, wouldn't him being so tall increase the effectiveness of a slider?

If anyone cares/missed it, this snippet from LA Times' TJ Simers today, about yesterday's blowout====

"HENDRICKSON WALKED the bases loaded in the first, and with Cody Ross due up, Little went to the mound to presumably remind Hendrickson that the Dodgers had essentially cut Ross, so no sweat. Ross then doubled home three runs.

"Ross singled in his next at bat, driving home another run, and this time it was pitching coach Rick Honeycutt who went to the mound to talk to Hendrickson, presumably to tell him that the Dodgers had cut the wrong guy"

134 That was cute but of course Hendrickson was not on the team at that time.

I think that most people involved with the Dodgers are aware of it at this point. How often they read it, I couldn't tell you.

I consider our site underground the less people know about it the better (loyal Dodger fans aside) this is how I like it.just my 4 cents.

115 - When they start hiring folks under the age of 80, the lines will move faster.
:)
126 - So the Yanks will be 1.5 games ahead of the Sox headed into their huge 5 game series this weekend at the Fens. So we have the two greatest rivalries in baseball this weekend, Yanks-Sox and Dodgers-Giants. You got to love it!!
By the way-The Angels seem to aspiring to appear on a growing list of teams to feud with: Lackey v.Kendall with the A's, the Rangers, Escobar v. White Sox cather A.J. earlier this year from last year's ill fated strike 3 with Eddings forgetting how to umpire. Who's next??

Wasn't last year the only one in which they've had great draft positions? Before last year, they hadn't finished under .500 since 1999. Between that, and their free agent habit (the reason we didn't have picks, this year, in rounds two through, what, five?), it doesn't seem likely that they've had great draft positions (though, I should actually look it up, instead of just guessing).

127 I've actually looked at this a little bit lately. Supposedly, White's strength has been his ability to identify talent after the obvious top picks are taken. In other words, among the pool of players that most teams agree could be good players but not sure things, White is able to identify the best of the bunch.

Billingsley, Elbert, and Loney were all taken in the second half of the first round. Greg Miller was a sandwich pick, #31 overall. Russ Martin was a late-round pick.

Here's a link to draft results. You can navigate around for yourself. I sometimes find it interesting to play a game of "who could the Dodgers have picked in this round instead of the selection they made?".

http://thebaseballcube.com/draft/index.shtml

127
The reason Logan White is on a pedestal is because he did build the number one minor league system without a top 10 pick. Arizona got a no brainer with Steve Drew and Upton since they were top 5 talent but until this year Logan has never drafted higher then 17th.
Martin - 17th round 2002, ROY candidate, incredible pick.
Loney - 1st round pick, 19th pick
LaRoche - 39th round pick, signability issue
Kemp - 6th round pick - considered a stretch
Broxton - 2nd round pick, 60th overall
Billingsly -1st round pick, 24th overall
Elbert - 1st round, 17th pick
DeWitt - 1st round, 28th pick

Saw this at BTF:

http://www.macon.com/mld/macon/15290920.htm

Dear (insert deity of choice here), please watch over Clay Kershaw's left shoulder, elbow, wrist and finger nails. And if you could keep an eye on his knee's, hamstrings, and groin muscles for the next 20 years, a great dodger nation will be forever indebted.

Amen!!!

Not his knee's hamstrings, his knees and hamstrings. Apologies from a spell check dependent blogger.

142.
And watch over Chad Billinglsey and Scott Elbert too, please.

Snakes! In the woods!

Is a pistol the right tool for snake huntin'?

Cue the "Snakes on a Farm" jokes...

Elbert has struggled at AA.
8Hrs in 40IP.
K's are good- 55
BB's not so good-26

Most everyone has said Jacksonville is a tough park to hit HRs in, so Elbert's been getting hit hard.

Dewitt is 7/42- .167/.255/.167
Chin Hu is OPS'ing .652 on the season.

The farm's actually somewhat lean right now. It'll be interesting what BA ranks the Dodgers next year.

147 Isn't Elbert only 20 years old (or just turned 21) and playing at AA?

I'm not sweating it.

137
In addition to the Dodgers-Giants and Red Sox-Yankees series this weekend, the Cubs are playing the Cardinals and the White Sox are playing the Twins.

A little help? I have a friend who's a New Yorker. I'm taking nothing for granted here, but in the event that the Dodgers and Mets meet in the playoffs we would like to make a friendly wager on the series. Nothing serious, just the sort of stuff mayors do when their respective teams meet in a World Series or Super Bowl. Something with a local cultural flavor. He has already agreed to put up a dozen genuine NY bagels but I am at a loss as to what I could offer in return. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated, but please bear in mind that there will be shipping involved here and I am poor.

Thanks!

Elbert was born May 13th, 1985.
He's 21yrs old.

150
Send him something that represents California's leading cash crop: grapes!

Or you can go for #2: almonds.

Dairy products are way ahead of the other two though. Maybe he'd like a quart of milk?

147 I would imagine the Dodgers will be high again with BA, even with the promotions/trades of several 2006 top prospects. Gone from the top 20 are:

1) Billingsley (LA)
3) Guzman (traded to TB)
4) Martin (LA)
4) Ethier (LA; not included in top 20 in book since he was an Athletic (#4), but he was rated slightly ahead of Matt Kemp, who was #6 for LA)
5) Broxton (LA)
6) Kemp (LA; BA's cutoff is 130 "at-bats"...I'm not sure if they mean AB or PA, but Kemp is at 122 AB & 133 PA, almost certain to get 8 more AB anyway)
15) Pimentel (traded to KC)
16) Blake Johnson (traded to KC)

I don't have the BA 2006 book in front of me, so I can't confirm those prospect numbers are accurate.

They still have top level talent. The top 2007 prospects will probably be:

LaRoche
Elbert
Kershaw
Orenduff
Loney (currently at 80 PA, might still be a "prospect")
DeWitt

Those alone, along with Young, Hu, Morris, etc should keep the Dodgers in Baseball America's top 10

Kevin Correia looks like he will be trying to get the rare 14-out save for the Giants in San Diego.

The Padres will slip below .500 if they don't rally.

150.
Ask him for bagels from Ess-A-Bagel. Trust me.

152 I suspect Bob means "California's leading legal cash crop."

If you go with the actual leading cash crop this bet may be way more interesting than you anticipate.

154 Do you mean 11-out save?

Actually, it's going to be an 11-out save for Correia.

156 Yeah, that was my first thought too. Maybe I could combine two suggestions and send him a quart of milk from a cow that grazed on the #1 cash crop.

75...I've met TJ Simers and had dinner with him, through my brother. He's a nice guy and is very knwledgable.

He says that his articles are nonsense and are used to get people's goads.

I still don't read them, but talking to him gave me another persepctive.

Thanks for all the draft thoughts. Interesting stuff.

150. Tamales!

150 Send him a dozen handmade tamales.

159
I know a guy in Idaho who can tell you if a dairy cow was grazing on marijuana by just tasting the milk.

159 It's worth a shot. At your own risk you could query Google and see what the research shows on that.

Ess-A-Bagels are great, though H&H are more famous and also wonderful. Or check out Zabar's online and see what you like.

Padres' will have the 2nd worst home record in MLB baseball after their loss today.

Royals are 26-33 at home.
Padres are 28-35 at home.
Braves/Cubs are 25-31 at home.

Always late to the party 161

163 Is his name Pedro Sanchez?

He says that his articles are nonsense and are used to get people's goads.

Goats -- right? You goad somebody, but you could also get their goat.

Out #11 proved too tough for Correia.

147 On the one hand, 8 home runs is not great, but teams are batting .176 against him in AA, he has only allowed 16 other hits besides those home runs, with men on base, teams are batting .188 and with RISP, .156

Interestingly, he has pitched better on the road at both A and AA this year.

He probably has 3-4 starts left in the regular season and one start in the playoffs. With a little over 125 IPs combined, maybe he gets to 145 or so IPs, he probably gets shut down for the year and starts next year back in AA.

Padres should have at least 36 losses.

147 Must you always bring up the gloomy side of everything? Elbert's giving up about 1/2 a hit per inning, I wouldn't call that being "hit hard". Even with the high walks, his WHIP is a very good 1.14 and his ERA a solid 3.34 (all according to Rotoworld).

Dewitt's is a very small sample size and discounts the strides he made in the last few months at hi-A.

Hu you have a point about.

172 Again, if the Dodger pitching prospects don't have great control, strike out a ton of guys and don't give up homers, JoeyP is going to be disappointed.

BTW, he would have written off Koufax well before 1962.

Rally killer by Josh Barfield.

8-4 Giants in the 9th.

But the bases are empty....

Rally killer by Josh Barfield.

8-4 Giants in the 9th.

But the bases are empty....

BBs and HR/9 at the minor league level are pretty important.

Its what kept Tiffany from amounting to anything.

DeWitt's been a disappointment considering his amount of hype. His power was nice to see at Vero, but everything else didnt really suggest top prospect status, especially given his new position.

I knew that would happen.

169 Darn, no 11-out save today.

However, if Giles and Gonzalez can get on, Benetiz could get a save.

178
Or even 14 outs!

Has it not been pointed out yet that Jon snuck the phrase "You do the math" into his piece on Ethier...?

153, 147 I forgot about #13 prospect Chuck Tiffany, who was sent with E-Jax to Tampa.

176 The only thing is that Elbert has been pretty dominating otherwise, it does appear that Kershaw has a little better upside right now.

I agree about DeWitt though I think he is somewhere in between what we saw in Columbus and Vero Beach. But with Abreu, Hu, LaRoche, and Betemit, they have a lot of time to give him. And he still has some support in places like Baseball America.

181 - Thank you.

Its what kept Tiffany from amounting to anything.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Tiffany's career isn't over. He's not a top prospect (was he ever considered a top prospect?), but he's far from valueless.

Even borderline prospects that make the big leagues and produce at replacement level add value to their clubs while their contracts are under club control.

With HR #16 yesterday LaRoche has a .313/.413/.493 line. Next year he can be our Kevin Youkilis.

Is the game you all are talking about the game that, when I checked in on the score, was a 3-0 one-hitter after seven?

187

Indeed.

Both teams pens were burnt out after last night's marathon.

When Williamson came in last night, Kuiper couldn't ID him, so he said, "When we return, 'That Guy' is coming in to pitch for the Padres."

I almost expected someone in San Diego to be flying a kite with Scott Williamson's cariacature on it.

Huh. Just figured out that JoeyP and oldbear are one and the same.

This knowledge doesn't change my evaluation of the content of any of his (their) posts, but it does bring a little more order to my world.

I'm generally the last person to know anything, so this probably comes as non-news to most of you. I just like to share my epiphanies.

My last one was about the blue LA team playing in Los Angeles and the red team playing in Orange County. That's been true for quite a while, of course, but the blue-state red-state thing is only a few years old.

Group challenge:

Without looking, name five San Diego Padre relievers from the 1970s.

Go.

I'd probably put LaRoche into that Martin/Broxton/Billingsley/Kemp group that should be counted on to be starting level players.

I'll be surprised if Loney/DeWitt/Hu/Abreu/Miller/Young ever develop into starting MLB'ers. I have probably written them off.

Orenduff/Elbert/Kershaw--too early to tell I think. Orenduff needs to come back from injuries. Elbert needs improvement. Kershaw's too early to really think about.

Elbert's AA numbers are too screwy to take seriously. Unless there really is such a beast as a 3TO pitcher.

190
I decline to participate

161 162 166 Excellent suggestion but they would require refrigerated shipping. I may have to fall back on that, but I'm hoping to avoid it if at all possible. IF this even happens.

190 Rollie Fingers?

187 Yep, the Giants scored 2 runs in the 8th and 3 runs in the 9th, Correia came in the game in the bottom 6th and once they scored all the runs, he stayed in the game (plus the fact that they had played extra innings last night). Then Correia loaded the bases in the bottom of the 9th and was taken out with 2 outs, Barfield hit the slammy and then the Giants got the last out.

Billingsley and Elbert in the their age 20 seasons:

B(A+): 2.35 ERA, 92 IP, 68 H, 49 BB, 111 K, 6 HR
E(A+): 2.37 ERA, 83.2 IP, 57 H, 41 BB, 97 K, 4 HR

B(AA): 2.98 ERA, 42 IP, 32 H, 22 BB, 47 K, 1 HR
E(AA): 3.35 ERA, 40.1 IP, 24 H, 26 BB, 55 K, 8 HR

That's about as identical as two different players can be, save for the Jacksonville HR rate.

188 I think the pen will be locked tomorrow night, Schmidt will have to go 9.

Dave Freiselben.

194 For less than $25.00 bucks with shipping, 1 pound box of See's Nut and Chews.

191 Again, I don't think the players you have 'written off' in your second paragraph NEED to develop into starting MLB players to be useful.

From a roster construction perspective, would you rather have Dioner Navarro or Toby Hall as a backup playing catcher once a week? One of them costs nearly ten times the other. Having backup players that produce at above replacement-level for league minimum AND having control over those players' contracts has a great deal of value and allows resources to be allocated to other, more relevant areas of need.

194- Since you're taking the Dodgers, and he gets the Mets, you should be allowed to put up a California State quarter against his bagels.

199 Wow, good answer. I can't believe how tough this question is.

202 LOL! Point well taken.

190/199/203 - I'm not cheating, either.

Eric Show?

Even borderline prospects that make the big leagues and produce at replacement level add value to their clubs while their contracts are under club control.

True, but those parameters should not be in effect with a large market club. For a large market club, every single roster spot should be a player above replacement value if the budgeting has been properly aligned.

Tiffany might have value to a small market club that cant afford someone better, but for the Dodgers I dont think he'd be of very much use.

I fully understand that a league minimum (lets say Tiffany) #5 with a 5.00 ERA is more valuable than a 5mils 4.80 ERA pitcher. However, the goal should be to have a pitcher better than either of those scenarios. Tiffany is the lesser of two evils, but ideally you'd want neither.

Therefore, I dont think just being replacement level is enough to make the Dodgers, if you are a prospect.

197 Billingsley was actually a year younger, I just managed to confuse myself with dates. The stats are still nearly identical, even if Elbert was a year older.

190, 199, 203 This is a very hard question. I was born in 1976, but for some reason my mind keeps drifting to the old baseball cards I had, specifically the 1974 Topps set which referred to the Padres as "Washington, Nat'l League" because they were this close to leaving SD.

But, I can't seem to come up with any more names!

Did Randy Jones relieve once? :)

Did Al Hrbosky ever make it to San Diego?

Eric Show didn't debut until 1981.

205 I thought I knew someone, I checked and was wrong, I had the wrong name so I will abide to the rules and not enter.

But a hint would be one ringy dingy, two ringy dingy, etc.

I see your point Oz. If the goal was to make the best team with the least amount of money possible, then all those value adding scenarios would work.

But I'd rather have the best team, not the most efficient team.

Therefore, for a prospect to make my team, he needs to be a difference making player. Sure I'd rather have Navarro than Toby Hall, but its more bc Navarro is just a better player, not bc of the salary difference.

You are likely confusing Al Hrabosky with Al Santorini.

I thought Gossage was an obvious answer until I realized he didn't get there until the 80s.

Show was around in the 1970's? I, too, am thinking of baseball cards. Those 1976 Topps Padres are some ugly dudes.

206 How many above replacement players would be willing to play the bench? I think it's virtually impossible that a team can have above replacement value at all 25 spots. That said, replacement level isn't very high. Loney is batting .271/.346/.457 this season, which is higher than replacement level for an NL 1B (.236/.317/.438). I also believe Dewitt, Hu, and Abreu could surpass their positional replacement levels (.234/.283/.348 for SS, .244/.306/.382 for 2B).

Pulling this from a deep recess of my memory... Juan Eichelberger?

I remember this memorable 1973 baseball card of a Padres reliever.

Look at the background:

http://tinyurl.com/fsju7

Evan Longoria is a Dodger prospect?
Do all Longorias have first names that start with E-V-A?

216 Those are 2005 replacement levels, but the 2006 levels shouldn't be too different. Those numbers are from Baseball Between the Numbers, and 2006 may be somewhere on BP, but I lack the membership to find them.

213 - If you are likely can be translated as "there's a snowball's chance ..."

Here's a question: Einar Diaz's name has been added to the 40-man roster:

http://tinyurl.com/7x28d

Without anybody being removed, thus producing (unless I've miscounted) a 41-man roster. Any ideas as to the rules in cases like this? Do they have a certain amount of time to resolve the situation?

219- Sort of. He's one in the sense that JtD, Jackson, and Tiffany are ones.

He's in Tampa's system.

222 The Dodgers had 40 men on the 40 man, but 3 were on the 60-day DL, and thus don't count. We could add 2 more players to it for call ups if Ned wants, and a 3rd if Gagne is 60-day DL'd

224 Ah, okay. I had been assuming the 60-day guys were taking up space, since the number of slots still added up to 40. Thanks.

218 So what's the deal? Is that the State Pen?

Longoria's already in AA? That was quick. And his batting average is twenty points higher than his OBP? That's quite a trick.

212 Making the "best team for the least money" isn't my argument. It seems that you're arguing that the Dodgers, as a "big payroll club", should not need cheap players to fill out the back of their roster (#5 starters, bench players, etc) since they should be spending a ton of money on good players at every position, including #5 starters and utility infielders.

An issue you're not addressing is scarcity. Hypothetically, let's assuming that there's a free-agent pitcher named Ricky Vaughn that everyone knows will pitch well, with certainty, over the duration of a 4-year contract and whose talents are worth exactly $12M per year. Assume that exactly one pitcher of Mr. Vaughn's credentials becomes a free agent each offseason. You can't sign all of them because other teams are competing for their services. Therefore, you need to fill out the rest of your rotation with (1) homegrown players (2) trades, which carry a high degree of uncertainty regarding player availability and cost (3) other, lesser free agents.

I don't argue that signing all the best possible players isn't desirable, I argue that it's IMPOSSIBLE. Shoot, the Yankees have a $180M payroll and only two good starting pitchers, and they're both nearly 40 years old.

My point is that even great, expensive teams need roster filler and DL-replacements that are of at least average quality over which they can exert control WITH CERTAINTY. The only path to this is a minor league system where players are not cast aside just because they don't look like everyday players.

I think we've both made our points. I'm done now.

Ricky Vaughn would probably not have good chemistry with the older players, and he is a bit of a hothead.

Rich Folkers

226

It's not the State Pen, but wouldn't you think the photographer could have moved the trash can from the background?

Or found any background that was better?

I doubt many casting agents get head shots of actors posed next to a beatup metal trash can.

Maybe it amused me more 33 years ago.

160 - "TJ Simers... says that his articles are nonsense and are used to get people's goads."

That's exactly why I can't stand Simers. It's an easy, cheap, nasty schtick he's chosen for his life's work.

From Jim Murray to TJ Simers... tells you all you need to know about the LA Times these days.

Hope that's not overly negative, Jon, but it's Simers' negativity that I'm railing against, if that helps.

Did Juan Eichelberger ever relieve? Honestly, short of Ozzie Smith and Dave Winfield its hard to name any players from the 70s Pads.

The question in 150 is closely related to the quandry I will have if LA ever hosts the All Star Game again. As I've blathered on about dozens of times, I host an annual All Star party with food representing the host city. This year I made corned beef sandwiches with fries on them, with apparently is popular in Pittsburgh.

Anyway, the candidates for a future LA All Star party:

chili burgers
tacos
sushi
the kosher burrito
french dip

Al Santorini and Al Hrabosky were teammates on the Cardinals for a brief spell.

Darn you, Jon, this is going to be haunting me all evening! I'm an old guy and the 70s were my baseball prime. This shouldn't be so hard to figure out.

I commented in 216 that it's virtually impossible to field a team where all 25 men are above replacement level. I retract that claim. Of the 25 men on the roster at this moment, all 25 of them are above replacement level. Hendrickson and Lugo are not above replacement as a Dodger, but they are for this season including Tampa Bay. Thus it appears that JoeyP's goal in 206 has been accomplished by the current Dodgers 25 man roster.

Sheesh, Jon threw everybody a room service fastball with that question!

At least for those of us who intensely researched great moments in Dodgers-Padres history once.

235/237 - I know not everyone was a fan of "Friends," but it reminds me of the trivia contest they had and that the question that stumped them was, "What is Chandler Bing's job?"

233 - Relieved in three games.

Rich Folkers

I'm jealous!!!! (really I am..for more than>....)

If I may be permitted continue the monologue with myself in 233 - how is it that the NL is hosting 2 consecutive All Star Games, and what shall I serve next year that best represents SF?

Seared sea scallops on a bed of baby greens with a white wine reduction sauce?

230 - Ah yes, Folkers - the subject of a most amusing gaffe from SD announcer Jerry Coleman.

238 He worked with the WENUS. I like the TV Guide answer, Chanandler Bong. Ross is really funny in that episode.

238 It really seems that way for most middle relievers. I have trouble remembering the Dodgers middle relief from five years ago.

241 - Linguine in a white wine clam sauce, a la Little Joe's in North Beach.
(One of the better meals in my life.)

241 Lots of Ghirardelli chocolate.

I hope I spelled that correctly.

[242]

he's my hero just for geting away with it!

I'll be back, I'm getting some color carteges that I've needed for ever...

The All-Star game doesn't alternate any more. It just goes to whomever demonstrates an ability to blackmail its fans in to buying tickets for it.

Izzy, Robles, JtD, and Odalis were right at replacement level when they were shipped out. Carter is the only sub-replacement level player to spend any time with the team this year.

245 Picking a legendary S.F. resturant and then San Franciso chocolate, that should get you banned for a week.

"Seared sea scallops on a bed of baby greens with a white wine reduction sauce?"

How about brine-injected chicken in a cream sauce?

241

White clam chowder in bread bowls.

253

And a side of heroin.

251 If I were to be banned for a week no one would even notice.

255
I'd care!

John "The Count" Montefusco?

256 Yes, but you wouldn't notice that you cared.

250 Thanks for looking that up. Isn't that about a combined $14M worth of replacement-level?

Can $14M get you a VORP of 50 or more, if such a player is available in the market? If so, having three marginal prospects capable of filling their replacement-level output is extremely valuable if those resources are properly reallocated.

238 I just remember that somebody thought he was a "transponster", or "transpinster" something to that effect.

Monica's nickname was "Big Fat Goalie". I'll never forget that.

259- Considering we started the season with eight plus million bucks worth of parttime outfielders, it seems crazy to believe that non-star quality prospects are expendable. But what do I know. Also, at some point you've got to take in to account the sort of garbage you get back when trading non-star quality prospects. It's sort of a case of allowing the perfect to be the enemy of the good, except, really, on what planet is paying some slightly above average guy several million dollars to be the fifth outfielder perfect?

Typical San Francisco menu

Appetizer:
Golden Gate Bridge rivets, deep fried and served with a side of ranch dressing

First course:
Mixed greens from the Federal Reserve Bank. I find that $10 bills taste better than $20 bills.

Main course:
Linguini in a clam sauce prepared with extra provincialism

Dessert:
Garlice sorbet topped with human growth hormone and flaxseed oil

That came out more harshly than I meant it to. Sorry. Should have read back over.

191.

I don't think it's too early to think of Elbert. Besides the HRs, he's been unhittable, only 24 hits in about 40 innings, and he's striking out a lot of hitters.

262
Followed by a romantic drive in a Prius...

265

Except you would have to park the Prius in Daly City.

263 If it's a rebuttal to my comment, I think we're actually in agreement and making the same argument.

basically, what I'm saying in 259 is that Loney, Hendrickson-quality AAAA pitcher, Repko-level OF (all cheap), and a $14M star player are better than $14M worth of Odalis, Robles, et al). Therefore, marginal prospects are good to keep rather than trade for more expensive mediocrities.

Going back to the title of this post, what's an Ethiest? Do Ethiests have faith in Andre, or do they doubt he's for real?

268
And what's an Ethiopian?

what's a nubian?

If you want something of an answer to Jon's question about Padres relievers of the 1970s go to:
http://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/475035.html

269 They exist within the Ethierial Plane.

Loney is batting .271/.346/.457 this season, which is higher than replacement level for an NL 1B (.236/.317/.438). I also believe Dewitt, Hu, and Abreu could surpass their positional replacement levels (.234/.283/.348 for SS, .244/.306/.382 for 2B).

If thats what replacement level is, then I might have to amend my argument to wanting every single player to be significantly above replacement level.

Those numbers for 1b, 2b, and SS are horrible.

TJShere, here's my suggestions for your bet:

Tamales (I can suggest a few great places)
California avocados
Farmer John!
A good California wine
I'm willing to donate my Cesar Isturis bobble-head

i wonder what a replacement level team's record would be.

The obvious Frisco-themed meal is....

Rice-a-Roni

275 A replacement level team would be around 41-121.

273 The 2003 Dodgers starting 2B went .249/.287/.338, their shortstop .251/.282/.315. Their firstbasemen cumutively weren't much better than .236/.317/.438, in fact none of them had a slugging that high.

Of course, that Dodger team had one of the weakest lineups in history.