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SI.com
NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
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Unreliable Relievers
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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
Chad Billingsley had 29 strikeouts in his past 29 innings going into Sunday's game, so I'm going to ignore the low strikeout total in his victory over Arizona, focus on his increasing mastery of the pitch count and his out-and-out success in preventing runs of late (1.50 ERA in 36 innings in the past month) and say hey, this guy flat-out helped save the Dodgers' season.
Not that Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux haven't had their runs of success in the starting rotation, but Billingsley and Aaron Sele have secured themselves unlikely spots in the 20th-anniversary folklore of 2026 should the Dodgers take the National League West this year. They'll follow the fond look back at Steve Finley, Alex Cora and Jose Lima in 2024.
* * *
Without Julio Lugo around, Olmedo Saenz probably would have started at first base on Nomar Garciaparra's day off Sunday, and Jeff Kent would have stayed in second. Instead, Lugo started at second base, reached base twice and assisted on three double plays in support of Chad Billingsley, while Saenz popped out as a pinch-hitter. And yet, I'm still fairly confident that Saenz would have been a better choice to start.
Saenz's at-bats by month in 2006: 41, 41, 37, 31, 13. While most feel that Saenz will burn out if he plays too much, another byproduct of the Dodgers' infield overload is that his presence has become about as visible as the Miss America pageant. His at-bats have been productive - he's 4 for 13 with a homer and four walks this month (1.038 OPS), but they've been rare. Saenz has not started since August 6; perhaps we'll see him against a left-hander this week. Lugo's OPS this month remains low (.647).
In case you were wondering, yes, I have noticed Joel Guzman's slow start in the minor leagues with Tampa Bay. I'm not letting the first month of statistics by anyone involved in the deadline deals influence my views of them. I had an initial reaction - my subsequent review will be a while from now.
* * *
Andre Ethier has had some surefire ugly at-bats in the past two weeks, but the rookie actually has hit in seven of his past eight games (12 for 35, .343 batting average, two doubles, two triples, .514 slugging percentage). On the downside, Ethier has struck out 12 times since his last walk - there's your ugliness - and is emerging at least anecdotally as a Nomar Garciaparra-like early in the count swinger.
We'll see if he can continue his success for 10 more games or 10 more years, but for now, even though they know he's swinging, pitchers haven't been able to get him out very often.
Ethier's batting average on balls in play has tapered ever-so-slightly, remaining a high .391. I have to believe that someday, that figure will come down no matter how talented he is, taking a hefty chunk out of his batting average. But I do think he's got the power to remain productive.
Update: Former Dodger holdout Luke Hochevar's debut in the Kansas City organization has gone well - Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has this update:
The number one pick in June made the third start of his pro career on Saturday, and it was business as usual as Hochevar struck out five over 3.1 innings while giving up an unearned run on three hits and a walk. With 9.1 innings in the books, the former Tennessee star has a perfect ERA of 0.00, giving up four singles and two walks while striking out 10. He'll have one more regular season start on Friday, and then it will be off to the desert for some Arizona Fall League action. His command is still a bit rusty from the time off, but he's already pitching at 93-94 mph and touching 96 while also showing a plus breaking ball. Mid-2007 for a big league debut is well within reach.
Goldstein adds this regarding Dodger AAer Jonathan Meloan:
Sleeper alert! A fifth-round pick in 2005 out of Arizona, Meloan missed the first five weeks of the season with a sore elbow, and has been treated with kid's gloves since returning, pitching in short stints every five days or so. The thing is, nearly every time he goes out, he's untouchable. On Friday it was no different as Meloan whiffed five over a pair of hitless innings, giving him 21 strikeouts in 9.2 Double-A innings and 89 punchouts overall in 51 frames across three levels. This is not a nifty, tricky pitcher fooling hitters with marginal stuff. Meloan is sitting at 92-94 mph, touching 97, and his curveball has morphed into a plus-plus spiking monster. 2007 could be a coming out party for him when the Dodgers take the reigns off.
Its pretty hard to get Olmedo playing time but next to PNC Park, he hits really well in Miller Park. Also, Grady probably believes that Olmedo is the best option to keep on the bench since he has the most experience in that spot.
Some other thoughts on the roster, its been mentioned that Jason Repko will get some playing time today and tomorrow due to LHs starting for the Reds. I see these as probably Jason's last shot at starting for a while, if the Dodgers choose to platoon against LH starters on the next road trip, I think Matt Kemp should and will get the nod over Jason.
Aside from Kemp, Loney and Kuo, its probable that Diaz or another catcher will be added to the roster, LaRoche could come up as an experience move but I don't think he would play much or at all, if Gio cleared waivers, he'll be added, now Houlton and Robles are still on the 40 man roster but as we all remember, Houlton cannot relieve and Robles just doesn't have anywhere to play. Delwyn Young is probably another guy because he has some pop and outfield depth, he also has only one more option year.
They have reigns on when someone has throne badly.
Penny is a better pitcher than Hendrickson. It makes more sense for the Dodgers to keep Penny on schedule than Hendrickson.
If Penny's problems were with the umpires, then why would he need to be held back?
Queen Elizabeth II, Queen Beatrix, and King Juan Carlos all would like to know when their reigns are coming off, too. Or, when did Meloan become a monarch?
"I tell you what, that little kid has a live ball. He's just like Matt Cain -- throws hard, got a good curveball. ... He's got a bright future ahead of him."
D-Backs 2B Orlando Hudson on Dodgers RHP Chad Billingsley, who pitched seven strong innings to beat Arizona and improve to 4-0 in his last six starts
19 - I agree! I just wish I had known on Friday as I would have picked tonight to go instead of Tuesday with my firm's tickets. With the West Coast D-Rays in charge, I might as well chalk tomorrow night up as lost and hope the Blue can win tonight and Wednesday. Maybe I'll get lucky and the Dodgers will just outscore the Reds in a slugfest.
http://www.forums.mlb.com/ml-dodgers
under the fantasy baseball section, there's a post in your name.
Sounds like a great Bugs Bunny episode, also starring Marvin the Martian.
I hope.
there are also some posts there by "joeyp" which I doubt are really by Joey.
what's going on?
The Ruth Gehrig Yankees of the 1920's, The Gashouse Cardinals of the 30's and 40's, The Yankees of Mantle, Whitey & Berra from the late 40's to the early 60's, the Dodgers of 55 or 1963 or 65? Oriole teams from 1966-71, The A's of 72-74, The Big Red Machine 75-76?
Many dynasties to choose from including the Yankees 1996-2001 and the 2004 Red Sox.
If our planet's survival hinged on it, The Yankees dynasties in the 20's or 50's would be a good bet along with the 70's A's. For 1 game, the Big Red Machine of 1975 or the Boys of Summer in 1955 or the 1998 Yankees or 04 Red Sox would be good choices. Discuss...
The '50s Dodgers never won the big one. The '50s Yankees played in a vastly inferior league. The '70s A's weren't really that good, they just got lucky in the playoffs. The '04 Sox were not a historically great team by any stretch of the imagination.
Which leaves us with the Frank Robinson Orioles, the Big Red Machine, and the 1998 Yankees. Since I do think the talent level in baseball has gradually increased over time, I'd pick the '98 Yankees.
yeah you can't go wrong with Koufax.
Oh and Jon, I would probably just ignore what people say on the forums of dodgers.com, everyone else does. Plus, mimicry is the sincerest form of flattery.
Ok, I'm off for the rest of the morning.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1955_World_Series
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_World_Series
It may also be the last. I fear for the future of our team with fans like those.
The 1953 Dodgers were easily the best team in franchise history, followed probably by '52 or '41 or '42, but those teams will always bear the black mark of October failure.
I'd go for the Twins, and make them play in the Metrodome.
Although I think they are a few days old. Especially with the Twins ranked above the White Sox, although that's never stopped the guy who puts those together from coming up with odd ideas.
It sometimes happens that guys stop switching. JT Snow comes to mind, but there've been others. It's confounded of course, with managerial decisions to platoon two players - so that a guy stops hitting from one side of the plate, but also never faces same-hand pitchers.
It seems to me that it's not obvious that having someone like, say, Betemit hit strictly lefty would help him. If he's always switched, then he's never seen a LHP while batting left-handed. In that case, there's no reason to expect that he'd be better off hitting lefty. It depends on what they think the problem is. Is it just too few ABs? Is there something mechanically wrong with his RH swing? My guess is that it'd be the former for Betemit, but probably the latter for Jose Cruz Jr. (who got many more ABs lefty, but was better righty).
Did any of that make sense?
150 ABs tells you nothin' about nothin.'
Also, do we assume the aliens (or whoever are trying to destroy Earth) are playing? If not, what about making their lineup from the best-of-fictional (literature or movie) baseball players come to life?
Stood on the spot in Milwaukee where someone shot Teddy Roosevelt, but a thick copy of his speech stopped the bullet. Hanguns apparently were not then what they are now. Or maybe the speeches have changed. I learned what a cow magnet is. And a cow trainer too. Other than the Brewers game I mentioned before -- where Tomo Okha decided to try batting lefty and went two for two w/four RBIs plus a bases loaded catcher's interference -- had no baseball awareness the entire time. We did have a Dr. Seuss tape with us, with the stories read by one Marvin Miller.
I know you've missed your Nats notes, so let me catch you up: The Nationals remain a bad, bad team that lost most of its games over the past 10 days.
Hope spirits have been high around here. Dodgers still in first place, after all.
The weakest link in the lineup was a Gold Glove third baseman with a .291 average.
No one's seen LAT either. We think maybe he's gone to New York to steal another Shawn Green jersey for his daughter.
Nice to see a couple wins in a row...but, is anyone else just a wee bit nervous looking at those NYM games on the schedule?
For example, this one should be pretty easy:
Gay Slur
Obscene Finger Gesture
Baseball
Summer
Alcoholism
Female Athlete
Los Angeles California
Underdog
Ethnic Slur
Racial Slur
Kids And Family
Child
Coach
Farce
Little League
Pool Cleaner
Beer
California
That's obviously "The Natural"
http://tinyurl.com/le8p7
MESA SOLAR SOX
TOP PROSPECT: SCOTT ELBERT, lhp, Dodgers
The first high school lefthander drafted in 2004--going 17th overall--Elbert certainly doesn't lack athleticism. As a running back at Seneca (Mo.) High, Elbert put up 2,449 rushing yards and scored 36 touchdowns as a junior before focusing solely on baseball during his senior season. After allowing 47 hits in 50 innings in his debut at Rookie-level Ogden, Elbert bounced back to rank as the No. 1 prospect in the low Class A South Atlantic League in 2005--putting up 8-5, 2.66 numbers in 115 innings at Columbus. The 21-year-old lefty has lively stuff, including an 88-93 fastball, slurvy breaking ball and average changeup. This season, Elbert jumped from high Class A Vero Beach to Double-A Jacksonville, where he was 10-9, 2.87 with 167 strikeouts in 135 innings. Dodgers officials believe Elbert will have an impact on the big league club as early as next season.
Here's a possible lineup:
2B Samantha Mulder
SS Michael Jackson
CF Tupac Shakur
1B Elvis Presley
3B Han Solo
RF Princess Leia
C Eric Cartman
LF Jodie Foster
P Odalis Perez (who clearly was abducted by aliens at some point and replaced with an inferior model)
Chased By Dog
Campout
Steak
Fence
Homerun
Candle
Junkyard
Doghouse
Chewing Tobacco
Vomit Scene
Carnival
Diving
Chase Scene
Black Eye
Baseball Glove
Blind Man
Cake
Twins
Baseball Fan
Treehouse
Babe Ruth
1960s
Narrative
Summer
Childhood
Baseball
Coming Of Age
Dog
Family
Friendship
Boy
Kids And Family
Vacuum Cleaner
Swimming Pool
Utah
Good Times
Title Spoken By Character
Children
Thanks to someone here who recommended Alan Furst's books during an earlier discussion. I really enjoyed Night Soldiers (actually only 3/4 of the way through) on my trip.
"Some of these guys are dead..."
His batting line: .334/.375/.535 looks good now. But let's say you knock his BA down to .284, which might be generous considering how much he whiffs (65 times in 329 AB). Then you have a 284/325/485 left fielder who runs okay but not great. That makes Ethier look more like Jayson Werth circa 2004 than a budding star.
The Dodgers have enjoyed the Ethier ride, but I think that his average is a major fluke. He only hit .30? last year in AA, I believe. Of course he is still a very useful guy to have around, but I am fearful that he is about to use up a lot of outs in September.
Also and not to make this board into a discussion of criminal actions, my hunch is Colorado is still smarting from the Kobe Bryant matter which some, not all, believe was a hastily filed case that certainly had some problems, in this type of case, you want to make sure the easily understood evidence is foolproof to overcome the heavy scrutiny that the media will give this potential trial, so when the DNA didn't match plus an alibi by someone who perhaps may not be so inclined to provide one probably made it less appealing to the local DA's office.