Last night, one of the Seinfelds had the classic question, What do you think mansiere or bro?

On to the subject at hand, I think it can be discussed, I think we now have sufficient data to examine the issue of defining bullpen roles for pitchers from the time they sign with the team.

I don't think Broxton's numbers are similar to Pedro's when he was a middle reliever, Broxton would have the reverse question, can he get in shape and either remain dominant with his fastball for 6+ innings or can he develop some other pitches to compliment the fast ball for the batter's 2nd and 3rd time up to see him.

I think a lot will depend on what other starters they look at, certainly if Kuo remains in the mix, then they probably need to look for one other starter, I would not be surprised to see Ned look for a Bobby Howry type because while you can mix and match your bullpen, you would like to not have to replace everyone during the season.

Follwup from the last thread...Tommorrow, David Wells will have one of those rare occurences over the last 4-5 seasons when he faces someone who has more wins than himself. Only Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina have more career wins. This is the first time he has gone heads up against Maddux. I did check for that, he never faced Glavine when he was with the Braves, don't know if he has since Glavine became a Met.

I would guess that he probably has gone up against his AL foes, Clemens, RJ, and Mussina.

I am really torn about going to the game tomorrow, I have a 5 game winning streak (it helps when they go 16-3 during that time and two of the games were in the daytime, which I try to avoid) but sometimes I just think by being there, I avoid the anxiety of watching it on TV, plus it will keep me away from a card game.

Longtime reader...rare poster

I am trying to forget about today's game, so in regards to the rotation next year.

With Penny, Lowe and Billingley, there are 2 open spots. Should Maddux be re-signed? And does Kuo's emergence preclude us from going after Schmidt and/or Zito?

Ned should not sign any reliever to a salary of more than $600,000 for 2007 without written permission, if you know what I'm saying.

But again, we return to muse upon Takashi Saito. His role has become so defined that he is barred from pitching to a single batter on the road if it isn't part a one-inning save opportunity.

I agree with that statement in that I don't like formula baseball. Just like I don't like formulas to choose what players to to get on your team...

What Little is doing is making a formula a rule, making decisions easier.

What's the point if you have a manager that automatically pulls starters at 100 pitches or 6 innings? Relief pitchers always have been, always will be, unreliable scum. They should be brought in only when the starter is completely gone and asks for relief. How would Drysdale have reacted?

3 I don't think so, the Dodgers will be getting Gagne's contract off the books, they don't have any players with significant bumps due to arbitration, its possible though unlikely since none of the rookies will qualify for arbitration until after the 2008 season, that Ned will offer extensions to avoid their arbitration years, he could do that but I think that is something for next year.

6 first of all, tell us what you really think...

and secondly, although I could be wrong, I am betting that none of our starters could easily be confused with Drysdale...

6 - What makes you think Little's starters aren't completely gone and not asking for relief? Hall of Famer-to-be Greg Maddux took himself out of his last start - not Grady - at 72 pitches or so.

Like it or not, most pitchers today do start to get more vulnerable after 100-120 pitches. How Drysdale would react to the situation is not relevant.

It's worth noting that Little gets criticized both for taking pitchers out too soon and leaving them in too long.

6 Oh my friend, if only those days could come back. But to be fair, for the most part, Grady does what every manager does, Torre does it but it gets masked due to all the other things that go on, the Angels certainly do it with the roles of Shields and Frankie though since they are must win mode, Mike uses them whether they are ahead, tied or down by a run.

If anything, what Kuo proved in his two starts, is that he can pitch twice this homestand against the Pirates and the D-Backs. The only thing for sure I think is that Maddux will pitch against the Rockies to start the final road trip, after that, it will depend on what is going on with the races.

3 - Maddux gets ~$8M next year if he resigns with LA (unless for some odd reason he voluntarily accepts less money from LA than he is rightfully due). That's too much money for someone who could turn into Jeff Weaver in a hurry.

Based on Tomko's previous comments, it seems that he, though respectful, feels slighted over not being the closer. Initially, it seems that Tomoko's conversion to the pen was a positive one, but I think that was deceptive, and now we are seeing the same Tomko who thrived and then faltered as a starter. As Tomko throws more innings we see him in his true light- an inconsistent thrower who'll get outs sometimes and then blasted others. He's not clutch enough to stem the tide or to be trusted to hold a lead. In my judgement, Tomko is no better than Baez was.
As for Broxton, moving him out the pen is intriguing. He reminds me a great deal of Penny. I think he has the potential of being a solid six inning guy.

12 - I'd put it the opposite way. I don't think he feels slighted, because he's aware of how well Saito is doing, but I don't know how respectful he was to the current situation.

If Maddux can only pitch 5 or 6 innings a start, why even re-sign him? Especially of those 5 or 6 innings are at best average innings.

The Dodgers just have too many useless bullpen relievers. Tomko, Hendrickson, Hamulack, Carrara cant be trusted. Beimel's a loogy. Stults/Dessens are "here hit it" type of pitchers.

Broxton/Saito just need to be able to throw 3innings every nite.

I'd also bring up Alexander and try him in the 7th. The league hasnt seen him and he was lights out at AA. He's worth a shot.

If we can sign Maddux and Guo keeps this up then I'd keep Broxton in the bullpen. I like the one-two punch of Broxton and Saito. Sure, you pitch less innings in the bullpen, but you pitch in more important innings, or in innings that have a higher leverage on win expectancy. Yeah, I know the Old School managers (which every manager seems to be a graduate of) don't always use their best relief pitcher in the most important situations. But still, in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings of a close game it's nice to be able to trot an effective pitcher out there. I would prefer freeing up some cash by not resigning Nomar, playing Loney/Saenz at first base then using that cash to sign a FA starting pitcher (Schmidt or Maddux??) and perhaps a 4th outfielder than to convert Broxton to a starter and then spend our freed up cash where? If for some reason we can't sign a respectful starting pitcher or Guo can't cut it in the starting rotation then I am open to the idea of atleast giving Broxton a shot at starting during next years spring training.
vr, Xei
Guo-Guo-Guo-Guo-Guo-Guo-Guo-Guo-Guo-Guo-Guo

I see your point. I guess I think of the Odalis Perez tirades after his demotion.

Maddux has pitched 8 (with the Cubs), 6, 8 and 7 innings in his starts at Dodger Stadium, so hopefully a combination of those will be good, he has allowed 21 baserunners in 29 IP, has a .BAA of .200 with a 15/1 K/BB walk ratio, his teams have won all 4 games. Wells has a pretty horrid lifetime record against the Dodgers in a very small sample.

When you examine Maddux's 2006 record against the Padres, he pitched into the 8th inning in Chicago giving up one run while getting shelled at Petco. Lifetime is probably irrevelant since Maddux's teams have been better than the Padres but he generally has done well.

I don't expect a 40 yr old to throw as many pitches as a 30 yr old. Look at Clemens. I'm sure he threw a lot more pitches per game in his prime game than he does now.
So, as far as signing Maddux, you have to realize that you are getting is a 6 inning starter on a good day.

My hunch is that Alexander is back home somewhere maybe wondering if he will be put on the 40-man, get Rule 5'd or continue to be in the Dodger system another year.

Pedro is and has been a 6-7 inning pitcher for the last few seasons, there are few that to that deep anymore. But I do think that to have a staff that generally guarantees you to really pay attention from the 6th inning on, really taxes your pen after a while.

I wouldnt resign Nomar either.

I'd be happy spending money on any of the following:

Acceptable 3rd basemen:
--Aramis Ramirez (he's probably opting out)

Acceptable Pitchers:
--Barry Zito
--Jason Schdmidt

Acceptable OF/CF'ers:
--Carlos Lee
--Eric Byrnes
--Jim Edmonds

I'd be alot more comfortable if the Dodgers moved Drew to CF for 2007, and signed Lee. However, for whatever reason it doesnt appear that they'll allow Drew to play CF. So that means bringing in a veteran CF'er, and the best ones are Edmonds/Byrnes. Please no Juan Pierre!

2 "Tommorrow, David Wells will have one of those rare occurences over the last 4-5 seasons when he faces someone who has more wins than himself... This is the first time he has gone heads up against Maddux. I did check for that, he never faced Glavine when he was with the Braves."

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B10130ATL1995.htm
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B10170ATL1992.htm

14 A month ago, Gio would have been in the game to sew up the 7th. The Cubs may have played badly against most teams but they won 3 games after trailing through 6, two here and one at Dodger Stadium. The only time they led a game throughout was the game Maddux won. Given some better pitching, we could have gone 5-1 against the Cubs.

If you could have one team's current roster and a $100 million budget for 2007 (i.e., for most teams you'd have money to spend, for a few you'd have to cut back), whose roster would you want?

Would the Marlins be a candidate?

If we see Hendrickson, Hamulack or Carrara next year I'll be horrified. If we see Tomko I'll be equally so but I'm fairly certain we will.

Next year, we should have more than enough middle relief to go around, though I shudder to think what kind of "insurance" Ned will think necessary for Brazoban, Saito and/or the departed Gagne. I doubt they'll convert Broxton, and have a creeping, despondent suspicion they will resign Maddux, whereas a rotation of Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuo and--oh, say--Jason Schmidt with Elbert lurking in the wings would be a little better than adequate, wouldn't it?

22 Nice one, the Glavine game I just plainly missed and the Reds game, I just never saw.

At least it was only one game each. And he beat Wells in that one time out.

I stand humbly corrected.

Marlins or A's.
Its a toss up.

If I were the Marlins and had 100mils, I'd put Willingham back at catcher, sign Carlos Lee, Edmonds, and Zito.

I'd also fire Joe Girardi.

Marlins:
SS- Ramirez
2b- Uggla
3b- Cabrera
LF- Lee
C- Willingham
1b- Jacobs/Helms
CF- Edmonds
RF- Hermida

Starters:
Johnson, Olsen, Sanchez, Zito, Willis

Then I'd give the league office directions to my headquarters so they knew exactly where to send the trophy.

24 The problem with saying the Marlins, you would never have their current roster if you had that much money to spend. You couldn't justify trading Beckett, Delgado and LoDuca if you had the money to keep them.

If you said 50-60M, than I think it is more reasonable to think that you could have the Marlins roster. 100M is hard because that would mean a large market, I like the Angels pitching but some of their contracts, Anderson, Cabrera, come to mind are hard to deal with, the White Sox might be a consideration.

I think if you lowered the amount to around 75-80, it makes the hypothetical more interesting, saying 100M, at least to me, makes it harder because of the outside factors you have to consider.

24. Yes. The Marlins. Then I'd move them to Santa Barbara. Well, yes the Marlins. :) The best team for the $buck$.
vr, Xei

I think it would have to be the Marlins, not sure any other team is close (maybe the Twins).

Florida's weak spot is the bullpen (yawn), CF, and C. Those are easy enough to patch up given ~$85M to spend.

Isn't the question if you had a $100 million budget for 2007 would you choose the Dodger roster or some other team?

What if someone came in and bought the Marlins, and was planning on moving the team? That'd be quite a team, if you took their youngsters they have, and then also gave them a 100mils payroll with it.

If you move the Marlins to Oklahoma City/Raleigh, NC, and invested heavily in the team, I think you'd have a very profitable franchise and won that could be a definite dynasty.

Its ridiculous that the Marlins draw 10,000 people a game. Move them to Oklahoma City. OC looks like they are getting the Seattle Sonics, looks like a good market to invest in if you have a sports franchise.

Mark Cuban's always wanted to buy a baseball team. Imagine if he bought the Marlins and moved them as close to Dallas as possible?

They may need to re-name the team though.

I dont think Oklahoma City has any Marlins. Maybe at their zoo.

32. Mark Cuban wants to buy the Pittsburgh Pirates. His home town (I believe). It would be fun to see Mark Cuban (owner) sitting in the dugout or coaching first base during Pirate games. Or leading whiffle ball drills prior to each game. :) vr, Xei

27 Don't you think that if you had a payroll of 100M, you would have to have revenues over that which means unless you have a lareg TV contract, you actually have fans going to the games, thusly, it would near impossible to do what the Marlins did if you had a market that cared.

A payroll of a 100M means you have a lot of guys making more than 4-5 million a year and not a lot of them making the league minimum, sure its nice to say that now, if someone walked and said we will triple the payroll, you can do these things but in practice that won't happen unless you have a situation like what happened this year in LA, you had some injuries so some guys came up and played, some non-roster guys like Saito did well but your success is still driven by guys who make some dough.

35. Good points. How about narrowing it to a NL West team. If you were an outsider looking in, which roster do you think is in the best shape. Taking payroll, flexibility and prospects etc... into consideration. I think LA would have to be at the top of that list.
vr, Xei

The other thing is that unless a player has a personal connection with the area, Florida even in its years of winning World Series, has not been a place for free agents to go to, both the Marlins and Rays will have lots of young talent but I am guessing that junior college football will outdraw them if they go head to head.

Probably more people go to the Swamp before a Florida Gator home game than attend an entire Marlin's 3 game series.

I think he has the potential of being a solid six inning guy.

i'm with "don't mess with a good thing", he's weight worries me.

36 The D-Backs have to be given some thought but that market is sketchy at best. They have a lot of young position talent, they are finally seeing the light under some contracts, though technically they are paying Russ Ortiz's contract for another year or so, he is just gone. But it remains a viable free agent market, their competition in the division is probably limited in terms of payroll to the Dodgers, the Marlins will have to deal with the Mets, who I think especially with their new stadium, will try to become like the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of pricing their competition out. It will be interesting to see if Florida tries to give Cabrera a similar deal like Wright got otherwise they will get hammered in arbitration. If Willis could ever put to great years together, that could be a problem too.

Its ridiculous that the Marlins draw 10,000 people a game
You're right. Those 10,000 people are fools to show up after what ownership has done to them. If they made the playoffs, owenership would probably sell the spot to the hightest bidder.

If you wanted to buy a baseball team, wouldnt the Marlins be the 1st team you'd want to buy?

Their city doesnt want them.
No one will care if they move.
They have a great foundation.

I'm surprised Loria isnt bombarded with calls asking about the availability. Maybe he his tho?

28 - You're overthinking. I'm telling you you get their roster today. Don't worry about how you got it. The fact is, the roster exists.

The Cubs have lots of problems but I don't why they can't dominate their division, they have the revenue streams, Chicago is not a bad place for free agents, and even though the Cards are in their division, they could certainly outspend them.

37 bhsportsguy
Florida even in its years of winning World Series, has not been a place for free agents to go to,...

The Dodgers had the same problem after two years of McCourt's ownership. Colletti broke that problem by signing Furcal to an inflated contract to get creditability.

31 - Yeah. Was that not clear? I just didn't ask it in a Dodger-centric way.

27 - Marlins or A's. Its a toss up.

Hmm...I'm not sure about that. The A's had a $75M payroll this year, and don't get a lot of relief in the offseason (including Zito, but I assume you'd bring him back in this scenario). They're still paying Kendall, Chavez, Kotsay, and Loaiza to waste roster space.

The Marlins seem too easy, when you think of the $80M you'd have to spend to patch every conceivable hole.

But the Twins, with Santana, Liriano, Nathan, Mauer, and Morneau already under contract with a low payroll, would be my #2.

The Dodgers had the same problem after two years of McCourt's ownership.

They've never had problems landing free agents.

The McCourts have signed Drew, Kent, Lowe, Furcal, Nomar.

That 'credibility" thing is just wrong.
Free agents follow the money.

Loaiza isnt a wasted roster space.
At least, not in the past month and a half.

37 I think the reason Florida has not been a big free agent destination is that for the most part, they have chosen not to be.

You cite home attendance, but I doubt that's one of the top 50 factors influencing where a free agent signs. The first is money, and as we have seen in the cases of Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, and Bobby Bonilla, if there is enough of it even the biggest stars will sign in Florida.

The second most important factor is probably distance from home, and more ballplayers live in Florida during the offseason than any other state. (Well, either that or it gives California a run for its money.)

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the problems Florida has had with attendance, payroll, etc., are largely of the franchise's own making and not really endemic to the location itself. Sure, Miami is not the prototypical baseball city of longstanding tradition, but neither were Phoenix or Orange County and those seem to have worked out OK.

42 Okay, I think for overall mix, the Marlins (especially pitching, while their regular players have done well, their pedigree doesn't suggest long term success), position players, D-Backs, though they should move some of them to pick up some pitching and a solid veteran bat.

The Dodgers really aren't far away, now you would have to put some faith in some youth, Kemp in the outfield, Loney at 1B, Betemit or LaRoche at 3B (but is that much different than what the Marlins have), if Kuo and Bills fill up 2 spots in the rotation, you can add another starter and mix and match your bullpen plus I think you have some more talent in the system, while the Marlins due to their circumstances have brought theirs up, the big difference is that the Marlins know what theirs can do at least for one year.

49 - Carlos Delgado had no problem going to Florida in 2004, but maybe the 4/$52M contract had something to do with it.

49 - "You cite home attendance, but I doubt that's one of the top 50 factors influencing where a free agent signs."

Actually, it's 49th. Sorry to have to correct you :)

49 Actually, Arizona might host as many offseason players as California or Florida. And don't forget that Florida is tax free which when you're making 10M year, is worth a LOT. Florida's ownership simply vacillated between compete and get ready to sell. When they are in compete mode, they can probably sign guys as well as anybody else or better due to the reasons you and I have named.

47 JoeyP

I think you need to reconsider your reply. You listed Furcal who was the object of my statement. His signing made other free agents realize that the Dodgers were serious about winning. Nomar came after Furcal. Kent wanted to see what direction the team was headed before he made any decisions...even about staying.

49

agreed

51 Pudge is another all-star free agent who signed there.

The notion that Florida is an undesirable destination for free agents is pure [tries to think of an appropriate word that conforms with rule #1.... fails].

If anything, it's exactly the opposite -- it's one of the more desirable locations because of the weather, proximity to spring training, and the number of ballplayers who already live there.

56 - Could also be argued that many of the Carribean-born players prefer to play there as well.

57 - You're welcome to soften up this comment and try again. But I'm going to delete it.

Oh I agree, home attendance does not play into where a free agent signs, in fact the only place where fan support is ever mentioned in a positive light is St. Louis, Boston of course gets grief because some (okay one, in Manny) wishes that the fans would not be so intense.

My point with attendance dealt more with the issue of the health of the franchise and its relationship to the payroll. Given Jon's parameters of this discussion, those were not part of the discussion, only the roster itself and then the figure of 100M to improve or maintain it.

For another time perhaps we could discuss what factors need to be present to create such a roster, no doubt this goes back to argument Jon raised prior to the July 31st trade deadline of whether a team is buying or selling. Those are good arguments to have after the season.

53 And just to follow up on the Florida tax issue... they have a real unfair advantage in that they can pay players 10% less and have it be worth the same to the player. Remember when Sheffield came to the Dodgers but it got held up as he had to be compensated for the tax implication? That's a weird situation that I bet the other owners grouse about.

58 Clearly they do. Not only does it have a large Spanish speaking population but it's also the closest team geographically to every Latin American country except Mexico.

57 - More money was spent in the 2004 offseason (coming off the division title) than in the 2005 offseason (when Ned committed himself...to winning). Haven't we gone through this all before?

You guys are all too good - I really mean that. Your responses are so thoughtful.

In my mind, I wasn't locking a team's roster to its city, for what that's worth. You could take your team to the Riviera for all I cared. I wasn't asking about a team's situation, I was asking about their roster/payroll. But your parameters for the debate might be more interesting and useful.

64 That settles it. They're playing in my backyard. I'll need to put up a big Green Monster type fence, though, or the neighbors will get really mad.

Jon, you have been around the Dodgers due to your SI.com assignments, it has been my impression at least from the outside that the whole Raffy Furcal signing showing something to the other free agents and perhaps the media (who always were skeptical of McCourt more than others) is a thought that has certainly been floated around since then.

While I agree with Joey that free agents usually go for the most money and you can also say that outside of Furcal and Nomar, Ned signed players he knew from his past, Mueller (reportedly only other team interested was the Pirates), Tomko and Lofton. Even Ramon Martinez crossed paths with Ned before. But nonetheless like many urban legends, the whole Raffy signing proving something exists and maybe like Bigfoot will never be truly disproven.

I think that no matter how you look at it, the answer is Florida by a landslde. I've said it before but I believe it's one of the stories of the decade that a team with a $15M payroll competed for a playoff spot until mid-September. That you can even field a team for $15M is beyond amazing.

Anyway, if we're answering the question as Jon originally posed it, clearly the answer is Florida with nobody else even close.

After that, a variety of teams could battle it out for second. Dodgers and Arizona have the players but probably too much contractual dead weight. Cleveland and the Twins might also factor in.

The next player who signs with the Cardinals because he thinks St. Louis is a neat place to live with salt of the earth fans who are the kindest, gentlest, most warm-hearted people they've ever met, will be the first.

I agree, I think this has been a interesting discussion, at least in baseball you can have it, with salary caps in other sports, you are really restricted and player movement really doesn't exist. The draft and the unnoticed free agent signings are what make the NFL, the NBA is even worse. Hockey is beyond my comprehension.

62

there's also the babe factor. i heard florida has a ton of beauties.

70 I meant that after they are there you hear that comment, to me the best athlete in St. Louis since 1999 was Marshall Faulk, no one comes close though Albert is getting there.

72 I doubt it can compete with Boston, Denver, or Montreal, but I guess it'll do if you like peroxide and silicone.

Sorry Joey but the idea that players only follow the money is just plain not true. I would agree it is factor #1 but there are just way too many examples of guys not taking the highest bid.
In fact, the very first free agent ever was Catfish Hunter who was actually offered more money by the Padres and the Royals but chose the Yankees because the scout who had signed him was working for the Yanks at the time and was involved in the negotiations.

69 - If you think that pitching is the key to winning, it almost has to be the Twins now that I think about it (let's all think good thoughts about Liriano's elbow). Start with Santana and Liriano, and then have funds to go fill out the rotation. Nathan to close the games. Wow.

JoeyP - strike 2. In the last 15 minutes, as far as the guidelines on the sidebar go, you've hit at least #1, #2, #