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NL West Preview
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Unreliable Relievers
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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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Five games to go, and every one of them may count for the Dodgers. While we wait to see whether the right side of the Dodger infield will tear every muscle in its collective body, there's some debate about how the Dodgers should be handling their starting rotation for these final days.
Dodger manager Grady Little has chosen to go with Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Hong-Chih Kuo over the next three games, with Greg Maddux and Lowe coming back on three days' rest Saturday and Sunday if necessary. Some are questioning whether Chad Billingsley's turn in the rotation should be preserved instead of rushing Maddux and Lowe back, and others are wondering whether it shouldn't be Penny, if anyone, who gets bypassed.
Billingsley had a fairly magnificent August, with a 1.50 ERA and 25 strikeouts against 12 walks in 30 innings. He then missed most of September with an oblique injury. That injury allowed him to rest his arm - he's at 157 innings for the year including his minor league totals - and after a rocky return, Billingsley threw five passable innings last Thursday, allowing nine baserunners but only two runs - basically, a July outing for him.
Meanwhile, Penny has struggled mightily in four of his past five starts and six of his past eight. Lowe, currently the ace of the staff, had a terrible July, so the idea that Penny can turn it around isn't far-fetched. But it isn't near-fetched, either.
In the end, I don't know how much confidence I have in either Penny or Billingsley to pitch in Colorado on Thursday afternoon, and I don't see a decided advantage in either one. My hunch is that something's physically wrong with Penny, and that might be enough to make me go with Billingsley. Basically, I would put Penny up against the wall and threaten him with a winter without hunting if he is concealing any physical ailment. If he passed that test, however, I think I'd let him take the hill.
As for the larger question of whether it's prudent for Lowe and Maddux can go on three days' rest, I find myself surprisingly at ease with it. Though I'm normally against sending anything less than full-rested pitcher out there, there has been a decent amount of evidence that Lowe and Maddux aren't bothered by the occasional quick return. Lowe seems particularly resilient. Maddux seems more bothered by how many pitches he throws in a game than how much time he has between starts.
"I don't get as sore as I used to (after starts) so it should be easy," Maddux told Bill Plunkett of the Register. "I don't throw hard enough to get sore anymore."
Certainly, Maddux may be good for no more than five innings Sunday - and in fact, after Lowe's start tonight (if not including it), I would expect the Dodger bullpen might throw as many as four innings a game. So the mission for Dodger pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, above all else, is to figure out how to get Billingsley in the mental state to come out of the bullpen ready to throw strikes. Though he won't start another game in 2006 with the playoffs on the line, Billingsley could still be critical to the Dodgers' postseason dreams.
Besides that, given that it's the end of the season, short rest doesn't bother me - if things go badly, they have a few months to rest.
I like Maddux and Lowe going on three days' rest.
The tougher question will be a one game playoff and the playoff rotation, depending on how the rest of this week pans out.
I much prefer a rested Bills to Penny on three days' rest for a one game playoff.
And in a five game series, I would argue that our best rotation would be Lowe, Maddux, and Kuo, with no Bills or Penny at all.
In the second half, Penny is actually striking more people out, his home run/outfield fly rate has regressed to the mean, and he's walking people along the lines of his career rate. Alsom his BABIP has shot up greatly, he's allowed almost as much hits in 79 innings post all star break than he did in 103 innings before hand.
What's interesting is that Penny's ground ball to fly ball ratio is actually much better in the second half. Penny was living a slightly charmed life in the beginning of the season, and while he's been slightly worse in the second half, it shouldn't have been nearly this bad.
The question is, is the expectation for what Penny will do Thursday higher than what Billingsley will do? The answer may be yes, if the peripherals indicate that Billingsley has been living a bit of a charmed life.
What I do know is that Lowe's delivery looks pretty unique to me, in that he releases the ball when his arm is pretty far forward compared to most pitchers. That would seem to account for his heavy sinker, and I wonder if its a also a style that puts less strain on his body. You certainly can't argue with his durability.
I'd be interested to hear from other commenters that might actually know what they're talking about.
Has anyone ever noticed how straight Penny's fastball is? Apologies if this has been pointed out before, but I couldn't help but compare Penny to Jake Peavy when they started the other night. Peavy's ball was dipping and swerving all over the place, for better or worse, and Penny's had no movement. Perhaps this is why Penny gives up so many foul balls.
Are people picking up on this? Penny throws very hard, but it's straight. I hadn't really focused on that until recently. Derek Lowe, to give another contrast, always has his sinker moving, and only gets hurt when he hangs one.
Penny, to my untrained eye, also seems to have very violent mechanics, and it seems to take a lot of effort for him to make pitches.
So what can you say? Maybe something is wrong with his mechanics, but I have never heard the announcers mention why his pitches lack movement.
Simply clutch to do that when you are fighting for a playoff spot
Youll understand when you watch the next two Dodgers pitchers perform in Colorado just how vital this win was and how good Maddux is.
Heres to a Dodgers/Padres NLCS.
As for the Penny/Billingsly conundrum, I say go with Penny. Both can be good or bad, but at least Penny doesn't have a chance to walk six guys.
I will be stuck in a training session that will last nearly all day.
That said, I still think Penny is the right pick to start since he appears to be Colorado's version of Harry Coveleski. (Gratuitious joke that only Bob will get...) Also, I think Billingsley has been quite lucky thus far in that so few of his baserunners have scored, and Coors is a poor place to pray for that luck to continue, humidor or no.
Anyway, it's an interesting statement about our pitching staff that the starter we trust the least is a toss-up between
1) The guy who started the All-Star Game
2) The guy who has lowest ERA in the league after the all-star break.
Another interesting scenario: what if the Dodgers have the Wild Card wrapped up on Friday but still have shot at winning the NL West (which does seem to be quite a long shot at this point). Do we still go with starters on short rest to try to win the west, or do we take the wild card and go into the playoffs well rested?
Johan Santana is fifth.
No one necessarily needs to know those events involve baseball, not schul.
Thanks, that's been arranged already. I would think that any tiebreaker between the Dodgers and Phillies probably wouldn't start until 4 pm PT. I can't imagine that MLB would expect the Dodgers to fly cross country for a day game. The last two tiebreakers (SF at Chicago, Mets at Cincinnati) were night games. I would assume TBS would want a night game anyway.
I read in some newspaper that Penny has a stiff back. I really feel that both Bills and Penny, or both Penny and somebody else, should prepare for Thursday, and Penny comes out as soon as there's trouble. We have a few ( iffy ) starters to spare, which may be better than Penny throwing away leads and gifting runs to the opposition.
However so, though, tonight's game is what matters. Blink and all is lost.
LOL, "ramrod straight fastball"
But I have nothing to atone for. And I'll be hungry!
And I didn't reserve seats at the synagogue for the service.
I don't think people really realize the extent to which the Mets are helpless against left-handers. It's so extreme that we ought to give serious consideration to starting Stults against them too.
The Mets' team OPS against lefties is .739, 26th out of the 30 teams, ahead of only Baltimore, St Louis, Seattle and the Cubs. (Their OPS against righties is 7th best out of 30.) Almost all of the Mets' players, even the switch hitters, fare much worse against lefties. And the problem has gotten worse as the season has gone on -- witness their recent domination by Pittsburgh's lefty pitching staff.
Kuo seemed unfazed by what we ordinary mortals know as pressure.
Though I'd prefer to run the table, we probably will lose one of the five remaining games. Might as well be at Penny's hands. He's a serviceable villain for our scorn.
After another poor Penny start, we learn little more than, "Well, that was another poor Penny start" - punctuated by Bill Plaschke of the Times going off on Penny's character deficiencies. Is that all we get? Penny was due to slide a little from his outstanding first half, but now he's in Odalis Perez territory. It's excessive. What's the story?
My mother is Jewish but the only time I ever went to temple was on Rosh Hashanah in 1978, which happended to fall on the same day of the Yankees-BoSox Bucky Dent play-off game. I really wanted to watch the game so I told my mother that I should stay home from school that day to celebrate Rosh Hashanah and she agreed! I was forced to go to temple later that day, but it was worth it.
Bob, you have from now until Monday to convince your co-workers that you are Jewish.
... perhaps a note from "Epstein's mother" would do the trick
(no ... not Theo Epstein's mom)
At this point, I'm thinking the rotation against the Mets would look like this...game 1: Lowe, game 2: Kuo, game 3: Maddux, game 4: Lowe, game 5: Kuo. Send Penny and Bills to the bullpen and see if they can be effective from there.
That's going to take a lot of doing. At least one very important thing was taken care of back in 1965. There's only so much I would give to the cause.
a lot will be said after pennys start tomorrow, so we'll see.
But trial by fire in the playoffs? YOu think Grady would pitch him in the 7th with a 3-2 lead?
its at least better then tomko.
My Michigander brother said he would not go to Midland unless he were guaranteed a large sum of cash. I checked on a a map. Midland is not near anything. Unless you think Saginaw is something. And I'm no Lefty Frizelle.
This then brings up the question: Which Midland would you rather live in: the one in Michigan or the one in Texas?
I believe I mentioned on how long it took me to hitchhike from Saginaw in one of the stories. I think it was four days.
The Midland in Michigan is the one you want. I've never been there, know nothing about it, but having been to Midland, Texas, trust me -- the Michigan Midland is far preferable.
I might choose Midland TX over some cities, though. Fallujah and Sarajevo come to mind.
Tom Boswell: No.
"First reactions" to serious things like this are a sign of ingrained (journalistic) irresponsibility. Our culture is full of this tendency. Have an opinion first, then get the facts later __if ever. I bet talk radio is FULL of people right now who are loaded with flashy opinions, have never met Owens and are bereft of any shred of insight.
Anyone who has watched Keith's "Countdown" program on MSNBC can probably understand why some folks would be upset with him.
Maybe the sender just thought he smelled bad?
Meanwhile, I'm upset because my landlord had two tickets to Saturday's game here in SF and I can't go because it's both a friend's 40th bday and my mom and stepdad are in town so I have double plans. Sigh... but actually it's probably just as well because I think I'm an in-person jinx so I'm probably better off just watching it later on TV.
Yes, that too...
"Chad Billingsley is a 1.2 IP, six-run disaster waiting to happen, but apart from that this group is solid. Not that the Dodgers have too many alternatives to Billingsley, unless they want to do something creative like a tandem start involving Jonathan Broxton. A three-man rotation is probably out of the question, with an aging Greg Maddux and fragile Brad Penny in the group."
A very poorly researched piece, to say the least, considering he's apparently not even aware of the existence of the guy who's got a decent shot at being our #1 starter against the Mets.
Jon can decide if any of my brothers look like me. He's met one of them.
JD Drew strikes me as a guy who lives near the Rose Bowl.
The west side of the Rose Bowl.
And even though Lidge is down, the Astro's pen is much better than the Cards.
I think he should be very cautious with his elbow. Very cautious.
Jason Schmidt's last start is up in the air too because of his back problems.
The houses along Linda Vista are the really nice ones.
Their purchase prices contain a couple of commas.
Los Angeles Magazine puts out the best neighborholds in L.A. article every year, I remember one year their chart showed for each neighborhood how many Starbucks are within a certain distance. There were some on the westside that had 3.
My brother's middle name does not start with an N.
The middle initials of my four brothers are: G, J, J, and V.
Being three hours from Detroit is not far enough away.
Which reminds me I should call him and let him exult over the Tigers' resurgence this year.
My biggest complaint about MI is the cuisine, such as the insistence on putting gross imitation cheese on just about everything.