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Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000

Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000

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$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000

Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000

Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000

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$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725

Working total: *$113,268,725

*Rough salary estimate

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Cardinals-Mets, NLCS Game 4 Chat
2006-10-15 15:27
by Jon Weisman

Mets at Cardinals, 5:05 p.m.

This is the Game 4 I wanted the Dodgers to get - facing Oliver Perez.

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Comments (267)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-10-15 15:31:41
1.   Greg Brock
Except that Oliver Perez will probably give up one run in seven innings, with six K's tonight.

Okay, probably not.

2006-10-15 16:01:48
2.   xaphor
So I was watching game one of the 1968 World Series on mlb.tv late last night and it took only until the third inning before it put me to sleep (good on you mate). Unbeknownst to me, McCarver was the catcher for the Cardinals during that series and I was wondering how often it occurs where a professional broadcaster gets an opportunity to cover a repeat World Series match up he took part in as a professional ball player.
2006-10-15 16:21:37
3.   Bluebleeder87
2
i'm guessing the odds are slim right
2006-10-15 16:36:37
4.   Bluebleeder87
i really hope Steve Lyons gets his job back.
2006-10-15 16:43:53
5.   xaphor
3. I would assume so, although McCarver also played in a Cardinal v. Red Sox series in '67 and (I'm pretty sure) called the same series in '04. The Cardinals won in '67 and lost in '04, where as they lost in '68. Is a victory in the cards (bad pun) for '06? Will Saint Louis continue to balance their record books with McCarver looking on?
2006-10-15 16:54:31
6.   xaphor
4. But Steve Lyons was never in a World Series game. He was traded from the Red Sox to the White Sox before Boston went on to lose to the Mets in '86. And again in 1992, he was released by the Atlanta Braves before they went on to lose to the Blue Jays. So Lyons has no value as a broadcaster to me. :)
2006-10-15 16:56:07
7.   Gagne55
Oliver Perez sucks mightily. Wouldn't it be ironic that after two 100+ win Cardinals teams failed, that an 83 win version could get Pujols his ring?
2006-10-15 16:58:58
8.   xaphor
7. It would give Beane something to be smug about in the off season. :)
2006-10-15 17:00:15
9.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Following Jon's comment, the recent struggles of the Mets make our own exit sting a bit more, especially the Game 1 loss. I don't really "blame" anyone for all the missed opportunities--I just still have a lingering sense of disappointment with this postseason, although I'm pretty optimistic about the franchise in the long view. It probably doesn't help matters that I was at Shea for NLDS game 1, and got to see "The Play" live.

WWSH

2006-10-15 17:08:21
10.   Bluebleeder87
can somebody find Oliver Perez fastball he lost it about 2 years ago.
2006-10-15 17:11:47
11.   xaphor
9. I'm cheering for a Cardinal victory for the sole reason it would make "The Play" (or the play for Berkley alum) moot. I have no interest in seeing it replayed on all those highlight reels that would unavoidably follow.

I don't feel much of a sting from our exit as it was fully deserved. To beat the Mets we had to play to our capabilities and we didn't hence the Mets were able to get by relatively cheaply. If anything the tables are now turned and the Mets must realize that the level of play that got them past us is not going to bare fruit against the Cardinals.

2006-10-15 17:17:24
12.   Linkmeister
Reporting in from Hawai'i. The quake was about 10 miles off the west coast of the Big Island, 160 miles or so southeast of Oahu; no damage at my place. I wrote it up here:

http://tinyurl.com/yn7rt9

2006-10-15 17:19:46
13.   Linkmeister
Oh, and thanks for the good thoughts in the previous thread.
2006-10-15 17:21:43
14.   D4P
Encuhnarcion batting cleanup for the Cards...
2006-10-15 17:34:09
15.   Bluebleeder87
14

gringos i tell ya! ;o)

2006-10-15 17:35:11
16.   das411
Have they given us any stats of the Pujols vs Oliver Perez matchup career yet?
2006-10-15 17:39:15
17.   Marty
Hey Link, glad to hear you were not affected too terribly by the quake. It reminds me that we are probably due for at least a reasonable-sized shaker here in L.A. It's been 12 years plus since the Northridge quake.
2006-10-15 17:39:43
18.   Bluebleeder87
Something tells me Anthony Reyes parents are from Jalisco.
2006-10-15 17:43:01
19.   dzzrtRatt
As I watch the Mets now, I feel a little more disappointed that the Dodgers didn't do better in Round 1. Our pitching was clearly superior, but it didn't show up in Game 1 or Game 3, and in Game 2 it didn't matter because the Mets' one remaining superior pitcher came through with a great game. Given their rotation's injuries, the Mets now don't seem like anything near a playoff team. The Dodgers match up much better against Detroit than either of these NLCS teams.
2006-10-15 17:44:13
20.   Linkmeister
Thanks, Marty. This is the first one I've ever felt on Oahu; we hear about 'em over on the Big Island, but they rarely radiate out this far from the source over there where the volcano is erupting.
2006-10-15 17:45:57
21.   Bluebleeder87
DzzrtRatt's writting reminds me of Manhattan from Dodgers.com
2006-10-15 17:47:19
22.   trainwreck
I guess the news that all of Hawaii was going through power outs was wrong.
2006-10-15 18:01:17
23.   Greg Brock
Glad to hear you are safe, Linkmeister. We were all thinking aboutcha.
2006-10-15 18:14:17
24.   Bluebleeder87
there all tide up 2-2

anybody but NY!!

2006-10-15 18:15:56
25.   D4P
Anybody but St. Louis
2006-10-15 18:16:47
26.   Gen3Blue
Ahhh. Encarnation cuckolds Green! Two D's I am glad to be without.
2006-10-15 18:19:06
27.   Linkmeister
22 No, it was accurate. You've heard of rolling blackouts? This is the reverse; they're bringing up parts of the grid in increments. Everything island-wide shut down automatically at 0720 or so this morning. We got our power back at 1320 this afternoon, but there are still a couple of hundred thousand customers without juice.
2006-10-15 18:23:59
28.   Gen3Blue
19 It was mostly a matter of luck. The D's and Mets were about equal, at least w/o Pedro and El Duque. Two of the games could have gone either way. But with that play in the second inning of the first game, the D's lost the moral advantage, and couldn't have won the series in any event.

I have thought about several orgs. I have worked for, and in every case several people on the D's would have been fired immediately. I will think about this.

2006-10-15 18:24:07
29.   trainwreck
27
Oh ok. Well thankfully you are safe and everything is fine.

Will the Mets and Cards both outscore the Raiders?

2006-10-15 18:32:52
30.   KG16
29 - I totally forgot that the Raiders were playing. To answer your question, yes. But give the way the Raiders are playing, the Dodgers will outscore them today.
2006-10-15 18:34:00
31.   Bluebleeder87
29

what's a Raiders?

2006-10-15 18:34:59
32.   KG16
31 - they are part of the legend that there use to be pro football in LA. Or so I've heard
2006-10-15 18:35:13
33.   Bluebleeder87
LaRussa is wearing sunglasses at night because he's cool like that.
2006-10-15 18:38:49
34.   trainwreck
We are only down 13 at half. Sadly, that is a moral victory for us.
2006-10-15 18:54:58
35.   Bluebleeder87
34

it's that bad, wow.

2006-10-15 19:00:57
36.   Bluebleeder87
the little eck that could! DINGER!
2006-10-15 19:03:41
37.   trainwreck
Yeah! We got 3 points.
2006-10-15 19:09:37
38.   Bluebleeder87
Reyes looks over matched at times
2006-10-15 19:13:56
39.   twerp
9 11 19 Over a season many things affect game outcomes.

Just ONE thing resulting in ONE more Dodger win would have meant playing St. Louis in the first round.

Who knows what might have happened then? Yeah, the Dodgers were 0for the season vs. the Cards. So we probably were due....

2006-10-15 19:28:58
40.   Andrew Shimmin
Sarcastic applause from the best fans in baseball?! Impossible!
2006-10-15 19:32:24
41.   Andrew Shimmin
12- Reading your post, I'm very surprised that anything in Hawaii is 160 miles from anything else. It always looks so small on the map inserts. Glad it wasn't too bad for you.
2006-10-15 19:32:51
42.   D4P
40
And no one's leaving the stadium early, of course...
2006-10-15 19:34:38
43.   Bluebleeder87
41

still not smoking Andrew?

2006-10-15 19:40:48
44.   Greg Brock
42 At least most Cardinals fans watch The Office.

Which is more than I can say for some people.

2006-10-15 19:46:44
45.   Andrew Shimmin
43- Hmm. I had a minor setback, about a month ago, but I re-quit, I guess.
2006-10-15 19:50:40
46.   D4P
At least most Cardinals fans watch The Office

By "The Office" I assume you mean "Becker"

2006-10-15 19:53:55
47.   Bluebleeder87
that's cool if anything you *re*quit wich is the bottome line right.
2006-10-15 19:54:24
48.   bigcpa
The 10th best secondary avg guy in the majors is available.
http://tinyurl.com/ybalot

"I don't like strikeouts," he said. "I'd give up home runs for (fewer) strikeouts."

We had the 4th fewest K's in the league- 15th in HR- need an OF. I smell a trading partner. Ethier + ____ = Dunn?

2006-10-15 20:03:26
49.   KG16
48 - that's a bad idea. Dunn's strikeout rate is way too high. Seriously, strikeouts are incredibly unproductive outs - at least when you put the ball in play you have the chance to move runs and score runs. A strike out accomplishes nothing.

Trading 30 HRs for 125 Ks (plus more since you're proposing a package) is just not a good idea. Especially when Ethier and Dunn had an identical OBP and were only .013 apart on SLG. Not to mention a .074 difference in batting average.

2006-10-15 20:04:51
50.   trainwreck
Dunn can't play a lick of defense and I doubt he will age very well. He should go to a team in the AL.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-10-15 20:05:07
51.   Bob Timmermann
Greetings from the Northwest Airport Lounge at Narita Airport! My flight doesn't leave for another three hours. Meanwhile I will enjoy the unlimited free Diet Pepsis and copious amounts of crackers.

If I were so inclined, I would just pour the free liquor and get ready for the flight home.

2006-10-15 20:08:41
52.   Bluebleeder87
51

do you say free liquor!

2006-10-15 20:09:58
53.   adraymond
49
Yes! Ethier > Dunn
2006-10-15 20:11:22
54.   Bob Timmermann
52
There is free liquor, free beer, free pretzels, and on the TV you can watch "Free Willy".
2006-10-15 20:12:40
55.   Bluebleeder87
how long would it take me to get there?
2006-10-15 20:14:13
56.   D4P
A strike out accomplishes nothing

I disagree. Striking out requires a minimum of 3 pitches from the pitcher, often more. Guys like Dunn who strike out a lot and walk a lot force the pitcher to throw a lot of pitches, which helps tire the pitcher out faster and helps Dunn's teammates see the pitcher's repertoire. Dunn is routinely among the league leaders in P/PA, and has a career average of 4.24

Seeing a lot of pitches (even if you strike out) may not get a fancy productive out name like "Olney," but it can make a positive contribution nonetheless.

2006-10-15 20:15:06
57.   Greg Brock
Get over the K's. Dunn is an absolute monster, even if you count his below average second half this year.

40 Hr's, 100 walks, right around 100 rbi's, every year.

2006-10-15 20:16:04
58.   Bob Timmermann
You need to be flying Business Class to get in here.

I think I'm the only guy here in a UCLA sweatshirt that's done yeoman duty on this trip and a Team South Africa Cap.

2006-10-15 20:17:35
59.   Bluebleeder87
i'd respectfully pass on Dunn 57
2006-10-15 20:18:31
60.   Greg Brock
59 Respectfully, you're dead wrong, my friend ;)
2006-10-15 20:19:39
61.   Bluebleeder87
you were working out there right Bob.

Go Fighters!!

2006-10-15 20:21:06
62.   Bluebleeder87
60

if we did get Dunn & his K's i'd be banned from Dodger thoughts for cursing to much.

2006-10-15 20:22:37
63.   Andrew Shimmin
Dunn's 27, right? He ought to have a few more good years in him before the over-fast decline his type of player is prone to. His defense is bad, but his bat still makes him better than Ethier. And, given Krivsky's middle relief fetish, he might not cost that much.
2006-10-15 20:23:13
64.   Greg Brock
62 Yes, but I enjoy getting three runs on two hits and a walk (in an inning), instead of one run on three hits. You know, like every single Dodger inning this year.

The only downside is that Bob might not get to see another run at the LOB record.

2006-10-15 20:26:00
65.   D4P
63
Two problems. First, Ned has a middle relief fetish of his own. Second, Dunn is the kind of player Ned would probably trade rather than trade for.
2006-10-15 20:27:35
66.   KG16
56 - all plate appearances result in the pitcher throwing more pitches. But the object of the game is to score runs and you don't score runs on a strike out.

57 - the home runs are impressive, sure, but the Dodgers proved this year that you don't need them to win. And while he goes for 40 HRs, 100 BB, and 100 RBIs (a number that is inflated because of his 40 HRs), he's a career .245 hitter and has had more strikeouts than hits every season of his career.

2006-10-15 20:29:14
67.   Greg Brock
66 Nobody cares about batting average. The only thing that matters is how often you get on base. A walk is just as good as a hit, and a home run is much better than a bloop single, which is what the Dodgers lived on this year.
2006-10-15 20:30:22
68.   D4P
you don't score runs on a strike out

Not directly, but long ABs likely have a positive impact on scoring runs later in the game. If you only compare strikeouts to other kinds of outs (e.g. groundouts and flyouts) and conclude that the latter are unambiguously better than the former, without also looking at P/PA, you are likely missing an important aspect of the whole picture.

Taking 10 pitches to strikeout may very well be more "productive" than grounding out on the first pitch.

2006-10-15 20:30:46
69.   Andrew Shimmin
Jeff Kent strikes out plenty and he's definitely declining. Colletti re-signed him. I don't think we know, yet, what a Colletti archetypical hitter looks like. We know what a Colletti pitcher looks like, and it's not too good. But he hasn't gone looking for any big bats, yet.
2006-10-15 20:33:07
70.   Andrew Shimmin
66- You're right that homeruns aren't necessary to win. But it's not like they don't help. Why be anti-homerun, especially when Dodger Stadium suppresses everything but homeruns?

I don't think we should give up too much for him, but if Colletti can use his dumpster diving predilection for good, instead of evil, why not?

2006-10-15 20:33:34
71.   D4P
Cardinal fans: the nadir of "hip" and "edgy"
2006-10-15 20:34:06
72.   bigcpa
Sorry for the drive-by post- I didn't get to defend my point. Here are the top 10 leaders in Secondary Avg:

Hafner
Ortiz
Giambi
Beltran
Howard
Thome
Pujols
Man Ram
Berkman
Dunn

Most of these characters make $15-19M and/or are 30+. And this is Dunn in an off year. Last year he was 2nd in the majors.

For the strikeout haters- here are the top 10 this year in K's:

Dunn
Howard
Granderson
Hall
Soriano
Bay
Sexson
Sizemore
Peralta
Swisher

Again hardly an unproductive bunch. Howard is only a week younger than Dunn. Did anyone complain about his 181 K's this year?

2006-10-15 20:34:40
73.   Greg Brock
70 I'd be willing to give up quite a bit for a guy that hits 40 home runs, 100 RBI's and 100 BB's. In fact, I'd give up Ethier, Kuo, and another arm (obviously not Kershaw/Billingsley/Morris et. al).
2006-10-15 20:35:23
74.   adraymond
67
Not so sure about that first part. Say you have two players, both with a .400 OBP, one hits .330 and the other hits .280. While the second walks more, the first gets more hits. And we all know walks are great, but singles are better. Of course, this theory is complicated when the .280 hitter hits a lot of homers.
2006-10-15 20:37:45
75.   Bluebleeder87
i doubt Colletti would make a move like that.
2006-10-15 20:38:09
76.   Andrew Shimmin
73- Yeah, that's not too much. During the A-rod hot stoving we were sending Billingsly, Elbert, and whoever else. That's more than I'd want to give up, even for Dunn. But Ethier, Kuo, and, what, Orenduff, I think I could bite that bullet.
2006-10-15 20:38:45
77.   Greg Brock
74 Yes, but you presuppose that OBP and Avg exist in a vacuum. The fact is that batting average doesn't matter when you hit the ball to the moon and walk a ton.

Unless, you're playing devil's advocate, in which case, you're still wrong, because Dunn mashes.

2006-10-15 20:40:09
78.   KG16
67 - ok, since you don't like BA, how about this, for his career Dunn has struck out 927 times in 2832 ABs (that .327 average), he has a career OBP of .380?
2006-10-15 20:40:58
79.   Greg Brock
74 It's also very tough prove that a guy slapping a single into right field has more value than a guy who takes an eight pitch at bat, walks, and works the starting pitcher out of the game by the sixth inning.
2006-10-15 20:42:41
80.   bigcpa
Dunn 6.5 RC/27
Ethier 6.0 RC/27

Ethier hit .360 on balls in play this year. Dunn hit .278. So this discrepancy would only get wider. In 2005 Dunn put up 7.5 RC/27 sandwiched between Cabrera and Berkman at 16th in the majors. The guy is instant offense. Bat him 5th behind Drew/Kent and let him mash.

2006-10-15 20:43:31
81.   Andrew Shimmin
78- I don't understand your point. Most of what batters do is make outs. You have to prove that strikeouts are so much worse than other sorts of outs, that they negate Dunn's power and patience.
2006-10-15 20:43:59
82.   D4P
I just calculated a simple pearson's r correlation involving Runs Scored and Ks for the 2006 season, and there is no relationship between the two.

In other words, increasing Ks has no effect on runs scored, and decreasing Ks has no effect on runs scored. They appear to be independent of one another.

2006-10-15 20:45:10
83.   adraymond
79
If the question is, what's better, a single or a walk, a would be surprised to find anyone who answer that it's the latter.
2006-10-15 20:45:29
84.   KG16
70 - I'm not being anti-home run. I'd like to see a Dodger team that could hit more homeruns. I'm just not willing to give up 125 outs (41 innings over the course of the season) for 30 homeruns which might get us 75 runs in the process.
2006-10-15 20:46:53
85.   Bluebleeder87
i always thought he didn't walk all that much so that's a plus.
2006-10-15 20:48:30
86.   bigcpa
For those who love their contact hitters, here is your bottom 10 in K's (RC/27):

Nomar (6.5) - fewest k's
Pierre (4.8)
LoDuca (5.4)
T Walker (5.3)
Eckstein (4.5)
Hatteberg (6.2)
Lofton (5.3)
Johjima (5.2)
Vidro (4.8)
Pujols! (9.9)

2006-10-15 20:48:57
87.   Bluebleeder87
84 I'm just not willing to give up 125 outs

i wouldn't give up some top notch rook pitchers for him.

2006-10-15 20:50:58
88.   Xeifrank
It was nice to see the Mets offense clicking behind former Dodger Paul LoDuca. What would they have done without his 1 for 6 at the top of the order. vr, Xei
2006-10-15 20:53:00
89.   Greg Brock
83 There is no fundamental difference between a walk and a single, unless you factor in the runs scored on hits (which is fine).

You also have to factor in the one swing, three runs that a masher like Dunn provides. I really don't care if somebody thinks a bases empty single is better than a walk. It's not.

2006-10-15 20:53:27
90.   Bluebleeder87
88

productive outs don't exist to you Xeifank?

2006-10-15 20:54:36
91.   Andrew Shimmin
84- But it's not giving up 125 outs. It's just changing the sort of out. A .380 OBP means he's making fewer outs than most players would, with the same number of ABs.
2006-10-15 20:55:55
92.   Greg Brock
I can't believe that this still needs explaining.
2006-10-15 20:57:11
93.   bigcpa
This year Juan Pierre made 526 outs- the 11th highest single season mark in history. He achieved this with a solid .292 avg. He drew 32 walks in 750 plate appearances. Dunn had 683 pa's, made only 442 outs, walked 112 times while hitting .234. This is why OBP is so underrated. 2 walks and 2 k's is a much better offensive day than 1 single and 3 groundouts.
2006-10-15 20:57:13
94.   adraymond
89
Ok, yeah, a bases empty single and walk are the same. The only thing that a single does that a walk doesn't is produce the chance for an error. Or at least that's the only thing I can think of.
2006-10-15 20:57:50
95.   Robert Daeley
Are any of these Dunn numbers adjusted for the homerun hitter's paradise that is Great American?
2006-10-15 20:59:06
96.   Greg Brock
The point of batting is to not make an out, not to get a hit. Sure, you can score a run with an Olney, but you score INFINITY runs if everybody walks. And you can score multiple runs with one swing with a home run.
2006-10-15 20:59:55
97.   Greg Brock
Batting average doesn't matter. It just doesn't.
2006-10-15 21:00:06
98.   Bluebleeder87
95

IMO he's a legit power bat

2006-10-15 21:03:04
99.   Andrew Shimmin
95- That's a good point. His three year, road split is: 242/.371/.489, 110 OPS points south of his home rate. Close to Kent's numbers, this year.
2006-10-15 21:04:34
100.   KG16
91 - sorry, I meant unproductive outs, you're right that it changes the kind of out.

As far as OBP goes, I must admit, I'm still rather new to understanding a lot of the more "non-traditional" stats (I know what they mean) but I don't know what's poor/average/good. Is a career .380 OBP really that good? More importantly, looking at the trend line, Dunn's OBP has been slipping since he became a full time player (his .400 OBP year he only played 116 games instead of the 160 he's averaged the rest of the way).

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-10-15 21:05:58
101.   Greg Brock
99 Dodger Stadium is still a good place to hit home runs (granted, it's not GAB, but it's good). Dunn would, however, suffer by playing the majority of his road games in SF, SD, and AZ. Coors is pretty impossible to gauge.
2006-10-15 21:07:04
102.   bigcpa
In 2005 the Reds led the NL in scoring while leading the league in K's. The Giants were 15th in runs and had the fewest K's in the league.
2006-10-15 21:07:39
103.   KG16
100 - my bad, misread the years on the chart, his .358 OBP season was the year he only played 116 games. But his OBP has been dropping since he became a full time player.
2006-10-15 21:10:04
104.   Steve
I like Dunn generally, but am now concerned about him for the reason given in 95. There is now a lot of reason to believe that things that happen in Cincinnati are no more real than things that happen in Tampa Bay.

By the way, I heard a rumor that only one of the eight teams in the playoffs this year had a park factor over 1.00. No points for guessing which one.

2006-10-15 21:10:26
105.   regfairfield
According to the linear weights system, a strikeout costs your team .287 runs, while a non strikeout out costs the team .250 runs. If a guy strikes out 150 more times than someone else, all other things being equal 5.55 runs, or half a win.

However, if you strike out, you can't ground into a double play, which is far more costly at .839 runs. So, if a guy strikes out 150 less times, but grounds into 10 more double plays (which seems likely) then they've cancelled each other out. So, overall, I'd say both types of outs are about the same in the end.

2006-10-15 21:10:30
106.   Andrew Shimmin
100- .380 is very good. Derek Jeter's is .388; A-Rod's is .386.

Dunn's batting average fluctuates a lot, but his peripherals are pretty strong. This was an off year for him. Could be the beginning of the end, or it could just be an off year.

2006-10-15 21:14:18
107.   Greg Brock
2006 Win shares by NL OF:

#9: J.D. Drew 21 (near his career year)
#10 Adam Dunn 20 (in a down year)

2006-10-15 21:14:31
108.   Andrew Shimmin
Using the Normandin defense rankings (which I trust because regfairfield linked them, the other day), Dunn's a good 14 runs worse a LF than Ethier. So, that's pretty impressive.

Is his 1B defense anywhere near as bad? How bad is Loney's LF?

2006-10-15 21:16:07
109.   Greg Brock
Is there a new defensive metric I'm supposed to believe now?

I hope so.

2006-10-15 21:17:48
110.   Bluebleeder87
If i could choose between Dunn & Soriano i'd pick Soriano.
2006-10-15 21:17:55
111.   KG16
106 - thanks for the reference.
2006-10-15 21:19:09
112.   Bluebleeder87
109

metric schmetric trust your baseball mojo.

2006-10-15 21:19:24
113.   Steve
There's also the fact that we have a leftfielder.
2006-10-15 21:21:09
114.   regfairfield
As far as Dunn goes, he's a very good buy low candidate.

Using the assumption that BABIP should be .120+line drive percentage, his BABIP should have been .355, not .278. He actually had far more line drives this year, than in years past. If you just assume that those hits would have been singles, Dunn's line improves to .276/.399/.532. Since it's Adam Dunn, there's probably more doubles in there, to improve the slugging.

2006-10-15 21:21:21
115.   Greg Brock
112 I like it.

SABR vs. Metric Schmetric

2006-10-15 21:21:55
116.   regfairfield
108 You should not use that as a basis as to whether or not a metric is trustworthy :).
2006-10-15 21:22:01
117.   Greg Brock
113 We do?

I'm assuming you're talking about Ethier.

2006-10-15 21:22:14
118.   Andrew Shimmin
Soriano K'd 160 times this year.
2006-10-15 21:26:0