Hot Stove Hotness is upon us. SI.com runs down the top priorities of every major league team. I handled the National League, and Jacob Luft took on the American.
This might be in the last thread, but it seems the Red Sox have reportedly won the bid for Matsuzaka and the winning bid was between 38-45 million. Which is to say, the Sox paid more money than Drew was going to get for the rest of his contract just for the rights to try and sign him. This bid screams "Block the Yankees" and I wonder if the Sox will try to play hard ball to sign him.
Jon, I don't have time to make an actual post right now but here's the info you were looking for:
Drew was 63rd in VORP over the last two years, and he made the 17th most salary. When you cut out the players who don't have actual contracts, he was 17 highest paid out of 40. Drew's defense narrows the gap considerably, but it terms of pure offensive contributions, he was probably over paid relative to the market.
A quick and dirty slice of VORPs and $ from Drew-like performers to follow reg's 6. From BP, Drew was ranked 59 in VORP this year (position players only). I looked at the VORP for 2005-2006 for the number #50-80 players from 2006 to find comparable performers over the last two seasons. Salaries are from COTS.
Name_____05+06=VORP for 05-06 salary
Drew_____26.9+34.9 = 61.8 for $22m
Overbay__23.5+36.3 = 59.8 for $3m
Renteria__19.6+37.6 = 57.2 for $18m
Ibanez___29.3+37.8 = 67.1 for $8.6m
Barrett___28.1+31.3 = 59.4 for $8m
Lugo_____42.8+31.3 = 74.1 for $8.2m
Alou_____41.9+27.9 = 69.8 for $13.25m
I wouldn't use this small sample to argue that Drew was definitely overpaid but it gives an interesting snapshot against a few other names. Drew is not quite in Lugo's class, but I thought I would include him anyway for comparison.
Per Baseball Daily, it appears that Gary Sheffield is now a Tiger:
The New York Yankees announced today that they have acquired right-handed pitcher Humberto Sanchez, right-handed pitcher Kevin Whelan and right-handed pitcher Anthony Claggett from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for outfielder Gary Sheffield.
9 I don't think it's useful to use Drew's 2005 VORP to assess his value anymore than using Hideki Matsui's 2006. Better to use EQA or OPS with a minimum PA cutoff and he'll sit among the $15M/yr guys.
11 - Not so sure about that. They basically signed a 38-year old Gary Sheffield to a 3 year deal, possibly worth as much as $40M, and gave up 3 pitchers, at least one of which (Humberto Sanchez) looks to have a very bright future.
Now, the Tigers had pitching to spare so it doesn't necessarily hurt them too much. But they now have a lot of cash tied up in Maggs, Pudge, and Sheff for multiple years.
The Yanks come out nicely, IMO. They won't miss Sheff due to Abreu's presence. Plus they can just go out and buy whatever offense they need to supplement what they would get from Sheff next year. They really just need to add a 1B.
15 I'm not sure I agree. Rate stats are useful to forecast the type of production measured in counting stats that a player would have given a full season. Sooner or later you also have to look at the cumulative counting stat performance not just the potential that lies in the rate stats. If we select 500 PA as a minimum cut-off expected from a starting position player (especially a team star), then Drew would miss the cut for almost half of his major league seasons. Drew's inability to stay on the field is important to consider but would be overlooked if I just told you that Drew has a career OPS of 905. In Drew's case, it's probably more appropriate to use 2005-2006 VORP than most because he seems to have a history of on year-off year. Drew is now an 8 year vet. From a production standpoint, I'd be interested to compare his R, H, XBH, HR, RBI, BB or VORP with others that have an OPS of around 900 over the same time period.
None of this really matters because I don't think he'll have any problem finding a suitor that will focus on last season and his year with ATL and overlook the negatives given the other FA options available
18 I have been getting SI all my life and a friend has been passing on ESPN: The Magazine for the last few months. ESPN is just like its television shows if that makes sense.
tigers have a surplus of pitching prospects and Andrew Miller is on the cusp of coming up to the bigs. they needed a impact hitter and when healthy, sheff is as impact as they come. And I think sheff should be fully healthy after a winter to recover.
I like it for the yanks because it adds to their stable of young arms. Hughes, clippard and sanchez are a very intriging set of upper system arms that have the chance to help the yanks next year.
Now hopefully the tigers can put aside that silly idea of dealing bondo for tex. Good trade for both teams. it accomplishes goals set by both teams.
23 I'm not convinced it's an either or issue between evaluation/prediction. My point was that rate stats have proven fairly useful for predicting future performance but given a large enough body of work, you begin to see trends in counting stats that are masked or averaged out if rate stats are the only based for judgement. bigcpa's mention that he wouldn't use Matsui's 2006 VORP provides a great example. I wouldn't use it either because Matsui's previous body of work in NY and Japan showed a consistent performer who rarely ever missed a start. I can't say the same for Drew.
Anybody heard a thing about Juan Pierre? Seems to be a little overlooked so far...granted Furcal is firmly planted at lead off and we need a big bat more, but more speed never hurt a team.
With extra money with Drews opt out, seems to me he'd be an excellent upgrade over old man lofton. Plus hes one of my favs and never hurt, more AB's than anyone in the league last yr.
if the cubs cant sign aramis, that leaves them a gaping hole at 3rd to go with other problems they have including lack of positional (or any) prospects ready to make a immediate impact.
it could open a door for a trade. Zambrano is a free agent after 07 season and they might not be able to keep him...
Penny + laroche/betemit + dewitt...could that get us Zambrano?
I'll take your word for it, but if Repko is the everyday center fielder and bats .240 with 13 stolen bases next year, I'll be placing the blame on this discussion right here.
33. I'll carry out that order. Juan Pierre is awful. It's true that a little more speed doesn't hurt, other things equal. Which is to say, "if Ryan Howard were also fast, he'd be better than he is now."
But in this case, other things are nowhere near equal. The problem is that you'd have to give Pierre a roster spot, see, and several plate appearances. Shudddddddder.
31 A great time to bring out the rate stats to predict Jason Repko's performance next year (in a kindergarten level analysis--I'm writing this out on construction paper with a Sedona red crayon).
Last year Repko had about 150 PA. Assuming a similar level of performance next year, then 600 PA yields 40 XBH, 60 RBI, 80 R, 40 SB. Will it happen? Who knows, but it would certainly be worth $350K.
EJM, I'm not a hater of Juan Pierre but rather just a fan of the 2003-2004 Juan. And then I was more a fan of the Juan and Luis Castillo show when you had a 1-2 combo with speed and OBPs .360-.380. That was fun to watch (lived in SoFla at the time).
I said I would stop with the Pierre talk, but first I need to clear something up. Greg Brocks assessment that he is a "terrible defender" completely misses the mark. Although it can be misleading, the guy didn't have an error last year, playing in 162 games. He may not be the best, but lets take it easy with terrible.
48 Errors are pretty much the worst measure of defensive ability. How many times does even the worst outfielder drop a ball? Not many. Outfielders need to be measure on the plays that they can make, and advanced defensive metrics make Pierre out to be a below average to average defender.
In a throwing contest between Kenny Lofton and Juan Pierre, the distance that each man could throw the ball on the fly could be measured with a caliper.
Would it be considered being duped by overrated big names if I wanted Jim Edmonds on the dodgers? Not that I think he's the best offensive player ever, but I'll take his ok offense with his incredible defense. And to keep Kenny Lofton from coming back. Then I'd trade a package including Penny, and Kemp to Toronto for Vernon Wells, and play Ethier in left.
Alright, I'm done, there's no winning for me in this one, too much antipathy in here for my boy Pierre. I'll go find another available centerfielder to piss you guys off with.
It's been too crazy at work to post lately. I've been witnessing the newspaper equivalent of the Iraq war. Tribune is playing the role of the U.S. army and the Times is the Iraqi insurgency. If my mortgage wasn't an interested party it would be fascinating to watch.
My Tiger fan friend/coworker's reaction when I broke the news to him that the Tigers had just acquired Sheffield was as if I'd told him his mom had died.
"I seriously hate that {{expletive}}," was his response.
Basically, he's been an excellent hitter but is so Me First that his welcome has been worn out everywhere he's gone. The Tigers didn't give up much to acquire him and he may give them some offense but after a year they'll be regretting it nonetheless.
78 I just figured using imagination is always more fun than seeing it spelled out, but if you must know, it's probably somewhere in Tommy Lasorda's Dave Kingman tirade.
I'm assuming that the Drew discussion has migrated to the later post.
I'm trying to get my head around why exactly DePo agreed to a deal that seems so completely favorable to the player. The possible scenarios were as follows:
Drew has two good years, opts out of contract – Advantage Drew.
Drew has two disappointing and/or injury-racked years, still has his big contract – Advantage Drew.
Drew has two decent but not great years, opts out, the market is weak, signs again with the Dodgers for less money – Advantage Dodgers.
If you're going on the assumption that DePo knew what he was doing, you have to assume that all he really wanted was two years of Drew, and he was certain (a) they'd be good years and then (b) Drew would inevitably opt out. But you look at the possible downside of this: Drew blows up for some reason and the Dodgers have to eat a big contract. But then again, that would be the case even if it was a conventional contract. So what DePo was actually surrendering in the deal is the possibility that the back end would be a big Advantage Dodgers, i.e., that by the end of the term of his contract they'd be getting him for below market value. What makes us think this is a bad deal is that we're keeping the risk of getting stuck with a bad deal without the possible advantage of getting an extraordinarily good deal. What DePo had to have been thinking was that the risk of Drew underperforming throughout the period of the contract was as low as you can expect in a risk-oriented business, and that if he was bad in the first two years he might well be good in the last three. So, you have to assume the thinking was, I want him for two years, there's a 75% (or whatever) chance that he will opt out, and if he doesn't that's something I can live with.
So what's the latest on Matsuzaka? I've heard he's property of the Red Sox. Then I heard Rangers. Then I heard Yankees, definitely Yankees. Damn these early hot stove rumors!
Whatever it is, obvious that the Dodgers are not part of the chase (which we all pretty much figured anyway). He's going to be $o expensive, but also unhittable.
84 - Wasn't really a question. More like thinking out loud. I did read a number of the comments, but I'm not going to go over 400 of them with a fine-toothed comb. To the fellows who made the points before they became redundant, I agree with you.
77 If healthy, Sheff will thrive under Leyland as he did in Florida. They seem to have the same no-nonsense approach to communication and a two year stint is a perfect duration. Unless that wrist pops while he's wagging his bat, the heart of their order is talented. It gets even better if there is an improvement in Ordonez' numbers as he gets another year past his injury.
81 You're assuming the contract was written that way at DePo's request; far more likely The Evil Boras insisted on it. At least one of his other clients had a similar deal. Depo probably had no choice but to accept it IF he wanted Drew. Maybe the clubs should set up their contracts so the club has the option to opt out after two or three years if the player becomes a turkey. Players probably wouldn't accept that. Better to sugar coat it like this: We'll use Drew's contract numbers as an example, 5 years for $55M. Structered this way: Years 1 and 2, payment is $13M per year; year three pays $11M; years 4 and 5 net player $9M per year. Mutual no-buyout option after three years. Player likes contract because he gets a couple of million a year more than he expected for first two years. If the player plays great, he can opt out after 3 years. If he tanks, club can dump him after three years and cut their loses. Same idea as on Furcal's contract except club has a little more leverage.
from Dodgers.com Little, sitting in the stands at Phoenix Municipal Stadium prior to the AFL game between the Mesa Solar Sox -- which includes several Dodgers prospects -- and the Phoenix Desert Dogs, tried to find a silver lining to the situation.
"He has a nice home there in Pasadena," he said. "What I'll do now is ask him if I can rent it from him this year."
Grady Little is great, now he can live in JD's nice house and not have to worry about watching him strike out looking in big situations anymore. Sounds like a great situation for old Grady.
Why not take a look at Trot Nixon (kind of a poor man's JD Drew anyway)? It'd be fitting to basically swap Drew for Nixon, since Boston appears to be a front-runner for JD.
Maybe the third time publishing this will be the charm.
J.D. Drew's on-base percentage and slugging in 2006:
Runners on: .406/.486
Scoring position: .421/.480
Runners on, two out: .459/.570
Scoring position, two out: .437/.471
Man on third, less than two out: .426/.529
Close and late: .397/.533 (results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck.)
Drew struck out, swinging or looking, 55 times in more than 300 plate appearances with runners on, or about once every five trips. That ratio more or less holds in the other categories.
If one watched J.D. Drew during his 146 games this season, in real time, on real fields, with varying game pressure, that's what one would have seen.
93 That seems like more of a Sonny reaction. I see Grady as more of a Hyman Roth.
"I had a kid, yeah, he was good, and that kid decided to opt out. I didn't ask questions, because I understood that was the nature of the business. And there isn't a monument, or a sign...That kid's name was J.D. Drew."
95-
I could be wrong this but I'm pretty sure my memory is pretty close. He struck out 37 of those 55 times looking...in those 37 the game was tied(or at least close) with 2 outs...and the rest of the stats were when the game was out of reach one way or the other.
Like I said, I'm not positive, but pretty sure about that.
You know, 88, that was actually a question I had that I didn't ask: Where did the initiative come from on this rather unorthodox structure? Did Boros propose it or did DePo offer it? Does anyone have any actual information?
Even if Boros made the proposal, DePo didn't have to take it. I would be willing to bet the response of at least 25 GMs would have been, "Are you crazy?"
I must say though, that I am shocked that you are still discussing a question that has already been asked and answered. I mean, I'm just a schlemiel who doesn't read the comments, but you . . .
The opt out clause was initiated by Scott Boras. There would be no reason to give a player an opportunity to opt out of his contract from a GM's perspective. It's something the player/agent wants.
97 I have heard Alex Rocco on a couple of commentaries of Simpsons' episodes (he voiced "Itchy and Scratchy" cartoon producer Roger Meyers, Jr.) Rocco said a great thrill was having his voice recognized by a young girl in a market who said to her mom, that sounds like the guy who runs "Itchy and Scratchy" on the Simpsons.
103 - I wasn't picking on you, I was needling Jon. Read it over again, I'm the schlemiel, not you.
100 - I never knew that, though it was probably because I wasn't paying attention. I could imagine an exchange where the agent says, "We were really looking for more money," and the GM says, "Well, would you like it any better if we structured it this way?"
How many contracts have there been like this, with a one-way commitment from the club?
104 - I'm sorry if I sounded obnoxious in my comment, Robert. I didn't mean to, I just didn't feel like chasing down what I had written earlier today, either.
Say what you want, but I'm just really happy that we're at the point where we're not saddled with some cancerous contracts, ala Dreifort, Hundley, et. al.
I just really like the payroll flexibility. I can live with Drew leaving town.
78: Today, washingtonpost.com ran an excerpt from a returning marine's (or maybe soldier's) book about life in Iraq, grunt's eye view of the war type of the war thing.
And they used [expletive deleted] for a profanity that one can assume started with f, but left in the actual full word of a profanity that started with s.
Must've been a long editors' meeting to sort that one out.
33- Oh that's your solution to everything, run him over with a bus. Kid doesn't do his homework, run him over with a bus. Dog tears up the sofa, run him over with a bus. If you were in charge of the world, bus driver insurance would be more expensive than diamonds. And then how would guys with DUIs get to and from their court ordered therapy? Huh? Did you ever think of that, Mr. Run Him Over With a Bus?
113
Whenever people talk about the war in Iraq, my mind always goes back to Henry Kissinger and Chairman Mao. When Kissinger asked Mao if he thought the French Revolution was a good thing or a bad thing, Mao paused, thought for awhile, and answered, simply, "Too soon to tell."
I don't know why that always comes to mind, but it does.
116 Trouble is, my knee-jerk reaction to Kissinger is "whatever he says, he's lying." So I'm not sure that's really from Mao.
I heard a similar thing about someone talking to Gandhi, asking him about Western Civilization. Gandhi's reply is supposed to have been on the order of "it would be nice if it happened."
118- I'd steer away from the Gandhi quotes, though, if you do end up drinking with Hitch. He's favorably disposed to the Orwell line $about saints being presumed guilty till proven innocent. And, presumably, the rest of that essay.
In addition to the questions in 122, if anybody knows, do we still lose our compensatory picks if Colletti stocks up on FAs of his own? Would we lose both, for a Type A, or only the actual pick, not the sandwich one?
121 I could make the argument, I could cite examples, and I may be correct, but there is no way in hell that you get me to besmirch Vin Scully on this board.
Is the consensus here that the Dodgers will get some sore of compensation pick or picks for Lugo? Seems like there is enough interest in him that they can risk offering arbitration, no?
The congressional GOP team was eviscerated on Tuesday. Lugo is at least good enough to be a defensive replacement. I wonder where he is on a capital gains tax cut. I would guess "pro."
127- Next time you get drunk, I'll see if I can't get it out of you. I wonder if they'll be able to get Chevy Chase to play your part in the consequent Law and Order episode.
128- I think that's the consensus. If, by some weird star crossed happenstance Lugo did accept arbitration, moving Furry to CF might not even seem as weird as it did back when you were agitating for it. Which would infuriate Steve, but, well, there are worse things that could happen. Although, I don't think there's any much chance he'd take arbitration. Lugo isn't that bad. He's got to be better than most major league shortstops. If The 'Stache blows this year's draft pick acquisitions, I'm going to have to think twice about not hating him.
My regret on Drew is that I was rooting for him to get 100 RBI. Now I wish that Kent didn't run through the stop sign and score.
Now I wish that Little would have played him everyday and ran his knees into the ground. Played him like other 30 yr olds and see if he could handle it.
Why do I say that? I remember reading not too long ago that Drew said he had the option in his contract because he wasn't sure if he would like it in LA. He wanted to see if his family would like the life style. Now, after being here for 2 yrs they like it here...(and other positive things said)...
His decision to leave was as surprising as his decision to try to score behind Kent in the ALDS against the Mets.
This so called 5 tool player has 3 SB in the past 2 years! Why is that? Afraid of hurting a knee or is it just that those strawberries hurt too much?
One theme I note in the comments is a tendency to demonize Scott Boras, as if he were some kind of Svengali brainwashing players who would otherwise take less money and make decisions based on loyalty and love of the game. Players hire Scott Boras for a reason, and taking the heat for getting as much money as humanly possible may just be part of the service Boras provides.
One thing a lot of people don't realize about rich people is they don't live on the money they make, they live on the interest on the money they make. That's why sums that seem astronomical to us are not enough for them when even more astronomical sums are available. When George Bush said "I've got political capital and I'm going to spend it," he was demonstrating that he didn't even understand the beliefs of his own people -- you never spend capital if you can help it.
138
I'm not ruling it out. I don't like "fads" or getting caught up in popular stuff. If I ever watch it, it will be toward the end of its run (e.g. Scrubs).
But really: what does The Office (not to be confused with The Google or The Iran) have to offer that hasn't been covered by stuff like Dilbert, Office Space, etc....?
140 I'm not going to explain why The Office is so wonderful.
The fact that Jon, Bob, Andrew, and the loveable Greg Brock think so highly of the show should be enough.
And, I'm an AD fan, like you. I suffered through the pain of losing the Bluths, and I'm telling you that The Office, while not as loveable, is a worthy substitute.
Having to explain why The Office is great is like having to explain why Kenny Lofton is a poor defensive player or why Vin Scully is a great announcer. Just watch. You'll catch on quickly.
140- If you lived even a little closer, Brock and I would kidnap you, and then hogtie you in front of a t.v. (his t.v., specifically; I don't need any more blood on my carpet) and fix this whole problem within two episodes.
And then we'd make you eat two spoonfulls of dog food, mixed in spaghetti. Just for kicks.
I've seen some of the british version of The Office on DVD which was quite entertaining. Has anyone seen both versions--does the US version compare favorably? And is the material new or just a reshoot of the prior scripts?
I still think that down the road Furcal could be a good CF if he wanted to be and believe his defensive skills at SS, which I though were being overly praised, will erode a bit in the next two years. But I will no longer agitate on this subject, unless one of his throws conks someone in the first-base seats.
I can't imagine explaining Arrested Development to anybody.
See, there's this family. One brother is in charge, but he's completely self conscious and damaged. He has two other brothers: One is a Segway riding magician, the other has been in college for 15 years, and wants to have subconscious intercourse with his mother...He also dates Liza Minelli. They have a sister; She's married to a closeted therapist, who has decided to become an actor (he's also a NeverNude).
The sane brother has a son who wants to marry his cousin. And the Patriarch loves jail made ice cream sandwiches.
144- I've seen both and am of the opinion that the U.S. version is superior. Much of the first season was retrofitted from the British version, but, after that very little has been. The American version is less cartoonish, and less uncomfortable, I find. Less cruel. The American version of Ricky Gervais's character is less completely hopeless. He's an emotional cripple, and all that good stuff, but his life doesn't make me want to kill myself. The Jim/Pam dynamic is much better than the Dawn/Keith(?) one. In the first place, Pam is actually very good looking, and funny, and nice.
I know Marty does, or used to, take the opposite position, and I also know that his judgment is generally to be preferred over mine. But I think he's wrong on this one.
The fact that Jon, Bob, Andrew, and the loveable Greg Brock think so highly of the show should be enough.
It should be, but I guess it's not.
If you lived even a little closer
As it turns out, I'm debating whether to apply for a position at UCLA. It's a good program, but I hate LA, and it's expensive, and I'd probably have to drive everywhere, which I don't want to do.
The Office has risen above AD in my mind
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, but I guess it doesn't have the same effect on the mind.
152- You cross state lines, it becomes a federal case, dummy. I'm down with a little county time, but you want to end up in Lompoc, you're on your own.
The episode of The Office that will air Nov. 30 was written by the creators of the British original, Ricky Gervais and Stephen Merchant. I'm really looking forward to that.
My wife tried to get me to watch Scrubs a few years ago, but I rebelled. I started watching it after one of my female friends kind of forced me to. My wife got jealous.
My wife tried to get me to watch The Office last year, but I rebelled. (She doesn't watch it, but has seen it and thought it funny). If I watch it now because of you guys, well, that might be the last straw. I suppose I could let her think she was the one who convinced me to watch it...
It's great that this has turned into a discussion of The Office, because when I read Jon's post title earlier today, I thought of the "Hate Crime" episode (Todd Packer leaves a "package" in Michael's office) when Creed enters the room, sniffs and says, "Somebody makin' soup?"
This is the "The Hunt for Red October" principle. I have a friend that refuses to watch the movie, simply because he's been told how good it is, and has held out on watching it. I'm convinced he'll never see it, as long as he lives.
158- I need to attract the kind of female friends you have. The only things my female friends have forced on me are The Bell Jar and The G-d of Small Things and Beloved. Which, well, I'd just as soon have watched an According to Jim marathon, like Bob does on his days off.
I'm going to start doing Director's cuts of my Dodger Thoughts posts. Example:
Regular Post:I really think the Dodgers need to sign Zito.
Director's cut: See, when I said that the Dodgers need to sign Zito, I was thinking about the fragile nature of the starting staff, and about how much a durable lefty starter would help the squad. I initially had more to say, but the I really thought the minimalist nature of my post was an homage to Cinema Verite.
167 No, but it's a pretty good movie, and it's just come to the point where my friend would rather die than watch the movie...He's just held out for so long, actually watching the movie would be surrender on his part.
D4P's refusal to watch The Office is a Hunt for Red October situation.
160- If I recall correctly, the DT record for sentence length in a comment is 117. I should have bookmarked the thread; it occurred to me when it happened, but I was distracted, probably by something shiny. Anyway, I'm pretty sure about the number. It was quite a thing.
There were some people who dropped in and gave us some polemics. I remember a few massive posts, retelling the history of baseball and the world, where I just said, "Uh, no thanks, I'll wait for the movie."
D4P wrote: As it turns out, I'm debating whether to apply for a position at UCLA. It's a good program, but I hate LA, and it's expensive, and I'd probably have to drive everywhere, which I don't want to do.
As you know, I work at UCLA, and I drive my car about once every two weeks, and never to campus. There's plenty of housing within biking distance. Of course, it's quite expensive. But even when I was in an apartment, I biked in. For one thing, the weather is almost always great. On those few days when it's not, all bus lines go to UCLA (or so it seems).
There are reasons to hate LA and UCLA, but driving does not have to be one of them.
172- That's the thing. It's an alphanumeric code that probably means something to the guy who picked it, but doesn't lend itself to remembering. PD something. Like PD5010, but I'm pretty sure that's not right.
If he's in the audience tonight, he could chime in and make it easier to hunt down, so we could tease him about it. . .
Strauss, father of the motherless neocons was at U of Chicago. Max Shachtman wasn't a professor, I don't think, but he ended up in Chicago. I don't know if Allan Bloom should count as one, or not, but Saul Bellow probably does, doesn't he? I don't know if U of Chicago should get all the credit, the way UCLA will once you and D4P join forces, but I'm pretty sure they get at least some.
There's a DTer who attends, or did attend, U of Chicago, but I don't remember who. I only remember being deeply envious.
181 I would love to attend grad school at the University of Chicago, but I have the same problem with that school that I have will all other schools...I have no idea what it takes to get in. I haven't taken the GRE, or any other tests, and I have no idea if my GPA from UCLA (3.82) is competitive enough to get in anywhere.
I really need to do some due diligence here at some point. Really, what does it take to get a Masters or PhD at a decent school? I should have looked this up at some point.
There's plenty of housing within biking distance. Of course, it's quite expensive. But even when I was in an apartment, I biked in.
We have two cats who are both "outdoor" cats. I can't fathom moving them to an apartment with outdoor space. That being said, is it possible for two folks with middle-class incomes to afford a dwelling with outdoor space that is accessible to UCLA by means other than car? We'd also like to be able to walk to restaurants, shops, etc., if possible.
There's a DTer who attends, or did attend, U of Chicago
I think that might be Penarol.
what does it take to get a Masters or PhD at a decent school?
The GRE is pretty important, especially for funding. I studied quite diligently for it, and did quite well, which (I was later told) factored heavily into the grad school's decision to give me the proverbial "full ride."
148. Thanks for steering the TV talk to Screenjam. Have I ever mentioned that TV and movies have gone to Haiti in a handbasket.
Other: Kind of shocked about the Drew opt out, but when looking at it from his perspective I can $see$ why he did it. I am not really sure why Colletti would burn his bridges with Drew just because he opted out. Try to resign him. The guy just wants current market value. vr, Xei
Graduate school is a great way for idealistic high-school teachers to postpone for 2-6 years their feelings of frustration at not being able to change the world.
I had always thought DJ would opt out because I didn't think he'd like LA. I thought he'd wanna go back to The South. But over the last year, he supposedly started liking LA better, leading me to think he'd stay.
194 You'd need a whip and an ark under your desk to get them to do that sort of thing.
Y'know, this is just my geeky self talking, but some of this UK Office vs. US Office debate reminds me of the debate among my fellow "mysties" about who was the better MST3K host, Joel or Mike? One was first and great, the second wasn't the original, but pretty great too. They both have their place. They both make me laugh. The US Office is terrific and has gotten better and better, but I still love the UK version, too. I agree the original had a little less heart to it, but the acting was spot-on and it was painfully well done. I like 'em both.
I actually thought Dawn from the UK version was cute (and did anybody notice her being in a wasted cameo in Studio 60 recently?) but that new gal is mighty cute, too.
This provides perspective for when Dodger pitching struggles. From kansascity.com--
http://tinyurl.com/tmtgg ...(Actually, I think this is going to take you to a registration page. I hate it when that happens.)
Anyhow, history of a not-so-good kind. Excerpts:
"....The 2006 Royals plainly did not have a pitcher of the year. They did not have a pitcher you could cheer. They did not have a pitcher persevere. They did not have a pitcher worth a beer.
"The Royals had their worst pitching staff ever, and that's saying something. They had a 5.65 ERA, highest in team history. That lovely ERA was also fourth-highest in the American League the last 50 years, not counting seasons shortened by strikes. If you want to count those strike years, the Royals had the sixth-highest ERA in the last 50 years, which doesn't sound much better.
"There are so many horrifying and yet mesmerizing pitching numbers to look at — to repeat my personal favorite, 13 different pitchers started more than five games for these Royals. All 13 had ERAs higher than 5.00. No one will ever break that record. But there are plenty of other glorious stats to consider. For example, the Royals starters allowed hitters a .492 slugging percentage. This was higher than Derek Jeter's slugging percentage, and he's probably going to win the American League MVP award.
"Then, there was the team's 6.96 ERA in the daytime. That's probably a record. In 46 day games — and this is really quite incredible — Royals pitchers allowed 86 home runs. Fortunately, the Royals' pitches were slightly more difficult to pick up under the lights (the Royals' night ERA was a more sane 5.17) or else Kansas City might have become the first team in baseball history to give up 300 home runs in a season.
"The Royals had an ERA higher than 5.00 every single month of the season. That's consistency. The relievers blew 31 saves, a new team record. The Royals gave up 10 runs or more 13 times — I'm just going to assume that's a lot."
204 Kind of like Real Genius, when Mitch Taylor scores higher on the entrance than Chris Knight, then finds out that Chris Knight wears bubble antannae, leg warmers, and sleeps upside down.
Like Chris Knight, I'm much more impressive on paper than in reality.
I'm watching Numb3rs. Just turned it on for the first time but is the guy who likes math and developed the doping formula the same guy who layed Danger in Million Dollar Baby?
214 Well, I play the acoustic guitar, and I play a lot of James Taylor, so I guess I could wear one, but the whole college professor thing is much more substantial.
Plus, I hear that the college guy get pipes with their cordury jackets. It's all about the corduroy jackets and pipes.
180- You can revise that last to 93. At least, I think you can. The poster's name is PDH5204 (we was called on to account for it, in one of the threads, and said the PDH bit are his initials, and the 5204, um, something; I forget and I'm not going back through the great bricks of prose), but the longest sentence of his I can find (there were several of over seventy words, and two over eighty) numbers 92 words in length. Last sentence of the last but one paragraph, in the last comment.
When some here spoke of regressing, we can see just who is regressing now that Betemit's playing everyday. And he cannot otherwise hit left-handed pitching, so what happens if the Dodgers face Johnson, Santana or Buehrle in the World Series? Any team can otherwise get a very nearly automatic out or remove Betemit from the game by simply bringing in that left-handed reliever with men on base in the late innings.
And Vin and some others wonder why the Dodger's were so lucky to latch onto the Second Coming. To answer Vin and those others, Betemit was never going to take Chipper's place, he's apparently not better than Marcus Giles nor will he be in the forseeable future, and Furcal left, which left the door wide open for him, but instead, the Braves went out and got Edgar "I made 30 errors playing short for the Bosox last year" Renteria. What does that say? And Betemit had been in the Braves organization his entire career, yes? So if anyone knew the player he was capable of becoming it was the Braves, yes? And they signed him at how old again? Did the Braves know something that Ned & Grady didn't? And for a more complete perspective, Giles is arbitration eligible this year, and the word on the street in Braves country is that the Braves might simply let Giles go and have Aybar take over at second. And that, not because because he can hit righties better than Betemit, as he can't, but he can hit lefties at something better than less than a buck. Oh, sorry, one more. For those who said, well, he .240 against lefties on the Braves this year. Yeah, he did. Now go over to the MLB website and go team by team. Betemit either went 1.000 or 0.000, or very nearly so. It was either feast or famine, and he starved against lefties far more than he ate. I will let someone else determine the ERA of the lefties that he did feast against.
And here's why Lugo, at least if the Dodgers would like to win the Series this year:
Fenway Park .333 .412 .294
Tropicana .389 .533 .267
And no more American League jokes, since the NL is clearly the inferior league, since, among other items, of all NL teams, only the CR and the SFG have a winning record in interleague play.
So, just when I was hoping that we might put thirty some years of futility behind us, I suppose that I stand corrected. Oh, and I don't count '89, since in addition to anything that anyone else might have done, that team doesn't win without Orel that year, and for that year, there was no Orel-substitute [as it were].
In the meantime, for those who study such things, well, based on some BP/Pecota figures, Lugo is supposed to rate as the 5th best shortstop in baseball. He's riding our bench in favor of a guy who can't hit lefthanders and so will never be an everyday player, at least for a team that considers futility a failure.
And for a final word, never ever take a player's performance against your team as being indicative of anything more or other than how he hits against you:
Dodger Stadium .429 .857 .429
Turner Field 1.000 1.000 1.000
So, in 9 AB's versus the LAD, Betemit went:
.556 .889 .556
Lugo will otherwise, well, there are no other comparable shortstops in this year's free agent market, and so while he won't he get Furcal money [only the Dodgers are that stupid], he will get more than he should, somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-23 million over 4 years. BP says he's worth 17 million over 4 years. So call the extra the "I'm the only decent thing" available premium. And as I remarked a while back, he prefers shortstop, but given his arm strength and tendency to be erratic at times, second base is a much better fit. And, again, that's why some other good teams, the Red Sox, the Mets, etc., all wanted to trade for him this year and have him play second base. The problem they each had was one does not get to talk with the other team's players. If they had been able to do so, well, when Lugo was negotiating with the TBDR, he kept coming back to the matter of whether the TBDR truly wanted to win. So that would have been the hook. You can either play short for a long-term loser like the TBDR, or you can play second for a winner. I was hoping that management here would have the smarts to do so, but as I said, I suppose that I now stand corrected.
For one last word re regression, well, our friends at BP expected Lugo to regress after his 2005 season, which was well above their prediction. Not only did he not regress this year, his .295 BA was up to .308, his .362 OBP was up to .373, and his .403 SLG was up to .498. According to fans of the TBDR, the explanation for the absence of the regression is simply that, like Koufax, Lugo found it, and he found in the latter half of the 2004 season and hasn't been the same player since. I'll will otherwise leave it to the numbers people to notify BP that statistics don't apply so well to human future performance, given that machines and other things mechanical cannot improve themselves on a permament basis while humans can. Well, tell them that, and also that only the fool thinks that human improvement constitutes a "statistical anomaly."
And, hey, if the "we don't know how to build a long-term winner" Dodgers management wants to get bench and then get rid of a guy who was outperforming Betemit in a league with superior pitching, and that with the guy having to face all pitchers while Betemit far more often than not sat against your more sinister pitchers, well, I suppose that it's their money and their tradition, so if they want to waste and trash the same, so be it.
And now, as the second of the ten "Thank You For Nots" Jon has seen fit to post on this, his site (of which I'm grateful and ought to display said gratitude in practice, and not mere words), asks us not to attack other commenters, I should say, upon reflecting on my little witch hunt here, tonight, which, while it didn't end in any steak burnings, drownings, or other nefarious ends, did hold up another commenter (whom I've no reason to so impugn; his style is his own, and not any imposition on me, other than what I make it) to ridicule, that I'm sorry for being a jerk, to the extent I was one, which is his to weigh, as the harm (such as it is) was done him.
In case that apology is unacceptable, which, given its structure, would be if it were offered to me, I'll add this one: I'm sorry. It should, at least, be of some comfort that, in order to be as big a jerk about it as I decided to be, I spent a long time, on a Friday night, trolling through archives instead of, like, having some sort of life. Anyway; don't know if you'll read this, but, here it is.
210 And related to that and also obscure, the guy who played Danger in Million $ Baby was the star of the late, lamented, short-lived series Undeclared.
"If you lived even a little closer, Brock and I would kidnap you, and then hogtie you in front of a t.v. (his t.v., specifically; I don't need any more blood on my carpet) and fix this whole problem within two episodes.
"And then we'd make you eat two spoonfulls of dog food, mixed in spaghetti. Just for kicks."
Before the national do-not-call list, this was remarkably effective in getting rid of telemarketers:
"Sorry, I can't talk now. I thought you were the ambulance. The police are still here, and there's blood everywhere!!!."
221- In the first place, Julio Lugo is going to go to Boston because Alexes Cora and Gonzalez were insufficient for them anyway. The Red Sox have the second-largest payroll in the game, and they need some offense out of their shortstop. He wants to play shortstop, so there ya go.
I think that's what it comes down to. Arguing the rest is as moot as arguing that we should have gotten Piazza as a backup catcher.
GregBrock: your GPA is fine. GPA really doesn't matter for grad school admission, because it's impossible to comapare across schools, or even majors, with any confidnence. The only signal that GPA can send is a bad one. In this era of ridiculous grade inflation, a low GPA is a red flag. But 3.8 is fine. The GRE is much more important, because it's the same test for everyone. That and your essay (or statement of purpose or whatever they call it).
Other fields may vary. Heed at your own discretion.
And for LAT, yeah,parking in West LA and around UCLA sucks, but, um, that problem goes away if you're not driving. Unless you like parking other people's cars for fun.
D4P: One neat thing about West LA is that you CAN walk to restaurants, groceries, post office, banks, etc. Honestly, I only ever drive if I'm leaving town or need to shlep a lot of stuff somewhere. Otherwise, it's the bike or the bus.
Oh, and I've only ever seen one professor wear the corduroy/elbow patch thing. And he's 80 yrs old. For me, half the point of this career choice was to never have to wear a jacket or tie or uncomfortable shoes. I have this vague delusion that the worse I dress, the more brilliant people will think I must be.
Back in my day, which was a period when dodos and passenger pigeons were regular sights on the UCLA campus, I didn't have any trouble getting into grad school with a GPA lower than 3.82 (for the record it was something like 3.68 as I was the King of the A- grade, I think got close to 20 of them). However, I went to a professional school (UC Berkeley's library school) and I wasn't doing graduate work in an academic discipline.
I had harbored illusions of doing grad work in history, but in my sophomore year a professor told me that I would never be very good at it. And in my senior year, another professor told me this. Unsolicited advice both times! I was told I didn't write well.
However, I did do very well on the GRE and I actually got a grant for library school. I believe I qualified for a grant for tall, skinny straight guys going to library school.
I would also echo GoBears comments about walking around West LA. I rarely go to that part of town, but when I was a student, I walked as much as I could and I only drove when I went back to my parents house in the Valley or if I wanted to go to Santa Monica or some place like that.
I will add that the only problem I had with walking to campus when I went to UCLA was that the passenger pigeons kept dropping "stuff" on me. And the dodos never got out of the way in time.
Any wisdom in signing players for more than 3 years? I don't see it. If it means you can't get a certain player, is that really a bad thing....longterm?
236. Well, I have no idea if the advice was at all appropriate in Bob's case (whose writing I find delightful). But I wish more faculty were more brutally honest with students - especially grad students. College is where the "you can be whatever you want to be if you just try hard enough" BS ought to stop. In fact, if the academic part of college means anything, it's probably as an opportunity for students to figure out what they're good and what they're not so good at. Which is why I'm not a physicist.
Well, they did get Furcal, and even though I didn't like the signing at the time, the 3 year part was good.
I don't like the free agent market this year. I think the contracts these players will get will dwarf the one Drew got, and look how happy many of the Dodger fans are that the Dodgers don't have to pay the remaining 3 years.
240 Agreed. While I was in the teacher's credential program, I had lengthy chats with my professors, mostly about how terrified we were at the people that were getting through the program. These people were going to be teachers!
I could hardly imagine any of them impressing enough during an interview to get a job, yet they did. Wow.
240Even when faculty are brutally honest, many students do not want to hear it. I have had several "C" students tell me they wanted to get PhDs and when I told them how hard it is to just to get into a doctoral program, they are convinced that their desire is enough. Nevermind actually getting a job after getting a degree.
That's good news about not having to drive and being able to walk, bike, or bus. That's what I want to hear. I met with three UCLA faculty this morning, and had an informal interview with one. I brought up some of my concerns about LA (e.g. affordability, transportation, etc.), and they pretty much said what you said (i.e. that you can live in places that let you bike/bus to UCLA). They also mentioned some kind of housing assistance for new faculty (e.g. a low-interest loan), but didn't know much about it.
I guess that if you overpay players (like the Furcal contract), you can do that. Which is fine. I was more talking about the first tier, everybody wants them type free agents. I would add that Nomar was a special case, what with the injury history and all.
I would have no problem sticking with payroll flexibility, and shying away from the five/six year deals as well. Unless, you know, it's a young bonfide ace, or a young masher who becomes eligible for FA.
Bluebleeder87 peace out.
Drew was 63rd in VORP over the last two years, and he made the 17th most salary. When you cut out the players who don't have actual contracts, he was 17 highest paid out of 40. Drew's defense narrows the gap considerably, but it terms of pure offensive contributions, he was probably over paid relative to the market.
Patterson, Smoke and pray for a hail of artichokes.
I like it.
Name_____05+06=VORP for 05-06 salary
Drew_____26.9+34.9 = 61.8 for $22m
Overbay__23.5+36.3 = 59.8 for $3m
Renteria__19.6+37.6 = 57.2 for $18m
Ibanez___29.3+37.8 = 67.1 for $8.6m
Barrett___28.1+31.3 = 59.4 for $8m
Lugo_____42.8+31.3 = 74.1 for $8.2m
Alou_____41.9+27.9 = 69.8 for $13.25m
I wouldn't use this small sample to argue that Drew was definitely overpaid but it gives an interesting snapshot against a few other names. Drew is not quite in Lugo's class, but I thought I would include him anyway for comparison.
The New York Yankees announced today that they have acquired right-handed pitcher Humberto Sanchez, right-handed pitcher Kevin Whelan and right-handed pitcher Anthony Claggett from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for outfielder Gary Sheffield.
Cricket: England thrashed
England lose by 166 runs to the Prime Minister's XI in the first game of their tour of Australia.
Um, what's that in baseball runs?
Now, the Tigers had pitching to spare so it doesn't necessarily hurt them too much. But they now have a lot of cash tied up in Maggs, Pudge, and Sheff for multiple years.
The Yanks come out nicely, IMO. They won't miss Sheff due to Abreu's presence. Plus they can just go out and buy whatever offense they need to supplement what they would get from Sheff next year. They really just need to add a 1B.
That's a clubhouse duo to love.
I've been a continuous subscriber since about 1975. Out of idle curiosity, who else here gets the magazine? Has anyone switched to ESPN: The Magazine?
None of this really matters because I don't think he'll have any problem finding a suitor that will focus on last season and his year with ATL and overlook the negatives given the other FA options available
tigers have a surplus of pitching prospects and Andrew Miller is on the cusp of coming up to the bigs. they needed a impact hitter and when healthy, sheff is as impact as they come. And I think sheff should be fully healthy after a winter to recover.
I like it for the yanks because it adds to their stable of young arms. Hughes, clippard and sanchez are a very intriging set of upper system arms that have the chance to help the yanks next year.
Now hopefully the tigers can put aside that silly idea of dealing bondo for tex. Good trade for both teams. it accomplishes goals set by both teams.
With extra money with Drews opt out, seems to me he'd be an excellent upgrade over old man lofton. Plus hes one of my favs and never hurt, more AB's than anyone in the league last yr.
it could open a door for a trade. Zambrano is a free agent after 07 season and they might not be able to keep him...
Penny + laroche/betemit + dewitt...could that get us Zambrano?
We'd be begging for Tom Goodwin to come out of retirement.
hes staying with the cards on a 2yr extension.
But in this case, other things are nowhere near equal. The problem is that you'd have to give Pierre a roster spot, see, and several plate appearances. Shudddddddder.
Last year Repko had about 150 PA. Assuming a similar level of performance next year, then 600 PA yields 40 XBH, 60 RBI, 80 R, 40 SB. Will it happen? Who knows, but it would certainly be worth $350K.
Those would be my guesses.
You'd also have to figure about 250 flyball misjudgements over the course of 162 games.
Which would actually be about 50 less misjudgements from Lofton's 2006.
But he writes his initals in the dirt before every bat. That's something.
Well, unless you count the disdain for David Eckstein...From me.
See, it's not all about stats. I base it on phrenology.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4486&context=fielding
If the ball is hit in the right-center field gap, and you run towards Tahiti, it's not an error.
Between Kenny Lofton and Juan Pierre, I'm surprised those guys even find the stadium.
And their Tillman reporting was Pulitzer worthy. It's still on line and easy to find if you want to read about a fascinating and not simple dude.
Find a centerfielder with a bigger hat size.
That's all I ask.
Maybe Colleti can convince Rosie to play CF then, turned out to be pretty good in A League of Their Own.
Woah, I missed that. Darn. That sucks, now what should we do.
"I seriously hate that {{expletive}}," was his response.
Basically, he's been an excellent hitter but is so Me First that his welcome has been worn out everywhere he's gone. The Tigers didn't give up much to acquire him and he may give them some offense but after a year they'll be regretting it nonetheless.
I'm sure Jon wouldn't mind...I'll go first...
I kid.
I'm trying to get my head around why exactly DePo agreed to a deal that seems so completely favorable to the player. The possible scenarios were as follows:
Drew has two good years, opts out of contract – Advantage Drew.
Drew has two disappointing and/or injury-racked years, still has his big contract – Advantage Drew.
Drew has two decent but not great years, opts out, the market is weak, signs again with the Dodgers for less money – Advantage Dodgers.
If you're going on the assumption that DePo knew what he was doing, you have to assume that all he really wanted was two years of Drew, and he was certain (a) they'd be good years and then (b) Drew would inevitably opt out. But you look at the possible downside of this: Drew blows up for some reason and the Dodgers have to eat a big contract. But then again, that would be the case even if it was a conventional contract. So what DePo was actually surrendering in the deal is the possibility that the back end would be a big Advantage Dodgers, i.e., that by the end of the term of his contract they'd be getting him for below market value. What makes us think this is a bad deal is that we're keeping the risk of getting stuck with a bad deal without the possible advantage of getting an extraordinarily good deal. What DePo had to have been thinking was that the risk of Drew underperforming throughout the period of the contract was as low as you can expect in a risk-oriented business, and that if he was bad in the first two years he might well be good in the last three. So, you have to assume the thinking was, I want him for two years, there's a 75% (or whatever) chance that he will opt out, and if he doesn't that's something I can live with.
Either that or DePo's stupid.
Whatever it is, obvious that the Dodgers are not part of the chase (which we all pretty much figured anyway). He's going to be $o expensive, but also unhittable.
Unfortunately they're paying him for 3...
from Dodgers.com
Little, sitting in the stands at Phoenix Municipal Stadium prior to the AFL game between the Mesa Solar Sox -- which includes several Dodgers prospects -- and the Phoenix Desert Dogs, tried to find a silver lining to the situation.
"He has a nice home there in Pasadena," he said. "What I'll do now is ask him if I can rent it from him this year."
J.D. Drew's on-base percentage and slugging in 2006:
Runners on: .406/.486
Scoring position: .421/.480
Runners on, two out: .459/.570
Scoring position, two out: .437/.471
Man on third, less than two out: .426/.529
Close and late: .397/.533 (results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck.)
Drew struck out, swinging or looking, 55 times in more than 300 plate appearances with runners on, or about once every five trips. That ratio more or less holds in the other categories.
If one watched J.D. Drew during his 146 games this season, in real time, on real fields, with varying game pressure, that's what one would have seen.
"I had a kid, yeah, he was good, and that kid decided to opt out. I didn't ask questions, because I understood that was the nature of the business. And there isn't a monument, or a sign...That kid's name was J.D. Drew."
Thankfully, no one has put a bullet in Alex Rocco's eye so far.
I could be wrong this but I'm pretty sure my memory is pretty close. He struck out 37 of those 55 times looking...in those 37 the game was tied(or at least close) with 2 outs...and the rest of the stats were when the game was out of reach one way or the other.
Like I said, I'm not positive, but pretty sure about that.
Even if Boros made the proposal, DePo didn't have to take it. I would be willing to bet the response of at least 25 GMs would have been, "Are you crazy?"
I must say though, that I am shocked that you are still discussing a question that has already been asked and answered. I mean, I'm just a schlemiel who doesn't read the comments, but you . . .
Uh, no thanks.
So call me a schlemiel; won't bother me at all. You commented on the subject in 81; I commented to your comment in 89; What's the problem?
100 - I never knew that, though it was probably because I wasn't paying attention. I could imagine an exchange where the agent says, "We were really looking for more money," and the GM says, "Well, would you like it any better if we structured it this way?"
How many contracts have there been like this, with a one-way commitment from the club?
" 'Tomko' likely ends tenure with the Dodgers"
" 'Tomko' surprises LA, becomes free agent"
Wow, that would be a great Saturday morning.
I just really like the payroll flexibility. I can live with Drew leaving town.
And they used [expletive deleted] for a profanity that one can assume started with f, but left in the actual full word of a profanity that started with s.
Must've been a long editors' meeting to sort that one out.
It's ad hoc and based wherever it needs to be.
http://washingtonpost.com/whbriefing
A daily read of mine, he is one of the best and most honest media critics around.
Whenever people talk about the war in Iraq, my mind always goes back to Henry Kissinger and Chairman Mao. When Kissinger asked Mao if he thought the French Revolution was a good thing or a bad thing, Mao paused, thought for awhile, and answered, simply, "Too soon to tell."
I don't know why that always comes to mind, but it does.
I heard a similar thing about someone talking to Gandhi, asking him about Western Civilization. Gandhi's reply is supposed to have been on the order of "it would be nice if it happened."
You should grab a drink with Christopher Hitchens sometime.
Chris Hitchens is the guiding light for all contrarians. Show me the best person in the world, and I'll tell you why he's a fraud.
(Now let's see if we can get the second regular in as many days to light himself on fire in the comments section)
Nate, any estimates on how many compensatory draft picks the Dodgers will get this offseason?
Near as I can tell, Lugo/Garciaparra/Drew would bring them a few.
In a free, rational market, Julio Lugo would be driving them.
Furcal: Shotgun!
Lugo: You're the only other one going.
But I could do it. I could totally make the case.
128- I think that's the consensus. If, by some weird star crossed happenstance Lugo did accept arbitration, moving Furry to CF might not even seem as weird as it did back when you were agitating for it. Which would infuriate Steve, but, well, there are worse things that could happen. Although, I don't think there's any much chance he'd take arbitration. Lugo isn't that bad. He's got to be better than most major league shortstops. If The 'Stache blows this year's draft pick acquisitions, I'm going to have to think twice about not hating him.
Of course, the article also states that the research is "limited and inconsistent", so you know, it doesn't really make for good science.
In other news, reading the newspaper leads to the bubonic plague, though the research is limited and inconsistent.
Mmmmm... sores of compensation....
Maybe we can just stick to the Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How...You know...reporting stuff.
Now I wish that Little would have played him everyday and ran his knees into the ground. Played him like other 30 yr olds and see if he could handle it.
Why do I say that? I remember reading not too long ago that Drew said he had the option in his contract because he wasn't sure if he would like it in LA. He wanted to see if his family would like the life style. Now, after being here for 2 yrs they like it here...(and other positive things said)...
His decision to leave was as surprising as his decision to try to score behind Kent in the ALDS against the Mets.
This so called 5 tool player has 3 SB in the past 2 years! Why is that? Afraid of hurting a knee or is it just that those strawberries hurt too much?
I'm assuming it's from your little "The Office" show.
One thing a lot of people don't realize about rich people is they don't live on the money they make, they live on the interest on the money they make. That's why sums that seem astronomical to us are not enough for them when even more astronomical sums are available. When George Bush said "I've got political capital and I'm going to spend it," he was demonstrating that he didn't even understand the beliefs of his own people -- you never spend capital if you can help it.
I'm not ruling it out. I don't like "fads" or getting caught up in popular stuff. If I ever watch it, it will be toward the end of its run (e.g. Scrubs).
But really: what does The Office (not to be confused with The Google or The Iran) have to offer that hasn't been covered by stuff like Dilbert, Office Space, etc....?
The fact that Jon, Bob, Andrew, and the loveable Greg Brock think so highly of the show should be enough.
And, I'm an AD fan, like you. I suffered through the pain of losing the Bluths, and I'm telling you that The Office, while not as loveable, is a worthy substitute.
Having to explain why The Office is great is like having to explain why Kenny Lofton is a poor defensive player or why Vin Scully is a great announcer. Just watch. You'll catch on quickly.
And then we'd make you eat two spoonfulls of dog food, mixed in spaghetti. Just for kicks.
I still think that down the road Furcal could be a good CF if he wanted to be and believe his defensive skills at SS, which I though were being overly praised, will erode a bit in the next two years. But I will no longer agitate on this subject, unless one of his throws conks someone in the first-base seats.
See, there's this family. One brother is in charge, but he's completely self conscious and damaged. He has two other brothers: One is a Segway riding magician, the other has been in college for 15 years, and wants to have subconscious intercourse with his mother...He also dates Liza Minelli. They have a sister; She's married to a closeted therapist, who has decided to become an actor (he's also a NeverNude).
The sane brother has a son who wants to marry his cousin. And the Patriarch loves jail made ice cream sandwiches.
So as not to offend Xeifrank.
I'm putting in all the work here, just to show you what a great show The Office is.
Deal?
I know Marty does, or used to, take the opposite position, and I also know that his judgment is generally to be preferred over mine. But I think he's wrong on this one.
It should be, but I guess it's not.
If you lived even a little closer
As it turns out, I'm debating whether to apply for a position at UCLA. It's a good program, but I hate LA, and it's expensive, and I'd probably have to drive everywhere, which I don't want to do.
The Office has risen above AD in my mind
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, but I guess it doesn't have the same effect on the mind.
Deal?
Or No Deal.
http://tinyurl.com/wqqtv
D4P: You've got to get in on The Office. Trust these people.
But just this once.
My wife tried to get me to watch Scrubs a few years ago, but I rebelled. I started watching it after one of my female friends kind of forced me to. My wife got jealous.
My wife tried to get me to watch The Office last year, but I rebelled. (She doesn't watch it, but has seen it and thought it funny). If I watch it now because of you guys, well, that might be the last straw. I suppose I could let her think she was the one who convinced me to watch it...
Join me in the Screen Jam thread if you'd like to chat more about it.
Regular Post:I really think the Dodgers need to sign Zito.
Director's cut: See, when I said that the Dodgers need to sign Zito, I was thinking about the fragile nature of the starting staff, and about how much a durable lefty starter would help the squad. I initially had more to say, but the I really thought the minimalist nature of my post was an homage to Cinema Verite.
:-)
D4P's refusal to watch The Office is a Hunt for Red October situation.
There were some people who dropped in and gave us some polemics. I remember a few massive posts, retelling the history of baseball and the world, where I just said, "Uh, no thanks, I'll wait for the movie."
As it turns out, I'm debating whether to apply for a position at UCLA. It's a good program, but I hate LA, and it's expensive, and I'd probably have to drive everywhere, which I don't want to do.
As you know, I work at UCLA, and I drive my car about once every two weeks, and never to campus. There's plenty of housing within biking distance. Of course, it's quite expensive. But even when I was in an apartment, I biked in. For one thing, the weather is almost always great. On those few days when it's not, all bus lines go to UCLA (or so it seems).
There are reasons to hate LA and UCLA, but driving does not have to be one of them.
Not that I would ride a Vespa...
If he's in the audience tonight, he could chime in and make it easier to hunt down, so we could tease him about it. . .
My 2007 New Year's Resolution list now includes:
1) Start a newspaper;
2) Start exercising;
3) One-eighteen, baby.
There's a DTer who attends, or did attend, U of Chicago, but I don't remember who. I only remember being deeply envious.
"I'm a politician Mr. Ryan, which means that when I'm not kissing babies, I'm stealing their candy..."
I really need to do some due diligence here at some point. Really, what does it take to get a Masters or PhD at a decent school? I should have looked this up at some point.
We have two cats who are both "outdoor" cats. I can't fathom moving them to an apartment with outdoor space. That being said, is it possible for two folks with middle-class incomes to afford a dwelling with outdoor space that is accessible to UCLA by means other than car? We'd also like to be able to walk to restaurants, shops, etc., if possible.
There's a DTer who attends, or did attend, U of Chicago
I think that might be Penarol.
what does it take to get a Masters or PhD at a decent school?
The GRE is pretty important, especially for funding. I studied quite diligently for it, and did quite well, which (I was later told) factored heavily into the grad school's decision to give me the proverbial "full ride."
What's the GRE? KIDDING!
Other: Kind of shocked about the Drew opt out, but when looking at it from his perspective I can $see$ why he did it. I am not really sure why Colletti would burn his bridges with Drew just because he opted out. Try to resign him. The guy just wants current market value. vr, Xei
I had always thought DJ would opt out because I didn't think he'd like LA. I thought he'd wanna go back to The South. But over the last year, he supposedly started liking LA better, leading me to think he'd stay.
Sounds Great! I'm in!
A) I've spent a lot of my life learning a lot of stuff, and it seems like I don't get to use most of it with teenagers.
B) I enjoy lecturing, not giving busy garbage homework
C) College professors get to wear the cool corduroy jackets with the elbow patches, and I really dig those
A. That either sounds kinky or illegal...or both...
B. If there's anything busy garbage doesn't like, it's homework
C. My wife won't let me wear one of those jackets. I think I could wear the corduroy, but the elbow patches are off-limits for some reason...
I'm hoping that some hotties paint "I love you" in their eyelids and blink the message slowly in my direction
Greg Brock had a higher GPA at UCLA than I did. I feel so small now. Very, very, very small now. All over.
A) Learning academic stuff
B) Giving homework, which is mostly busy work, and garbage
C) Corduroy jackets rock. Elbow patches rock exponentially.
Just blame it on grade inflation
It is? Now I feel small. Very, very, very small. All over.
I believe your GPA would have qualified you for Summa Cum Laude. I was a lowly Magna...
:-(
Honors don't fix that.
See: your blog
Y'know, this is just my geeky self talking, but some of this UK Office vs. US Office debate reminds me of the debate among my fellow "mysties" about who was the better MST3K host, Joel or Mike? One was first and great, the second wasn't the original, but pretty great too. They both have their place. They both make me laugh. The US Office is terrific and has gotten better and better, but I still love the UK version, too. I agree the original had a little less heart to it, but the acting was spot-on and it was painfully well done. I like 'em both.
I actually thought Dawn from the UK version was cute (and did anybody notice her being in a wasted cameo in Studio 60 recently?) but that new gal is mighty cute, too.
http://tinyurl.com/tmtgg ...(Actually, I think this is going to take you to a registration page. I hate it when that happens.)
Anyhow, history of a not-so-good kind. Excerpts:
"....The 2006 Royals plainly did not have a pitcher of the year. They did not have a pitcher you could cheer. They did not have a pitcher persevere. They did not have a pitcher worth a beer.
"The Royals had their worst pitching staff ever, and that's saying something. They had a 5.65 ERA, highest in team history. That lovely ERA was also fourth-highest in the American League the last 50 years, not counting seasons shortened by strikes. If you want to count those strike years, the Royals had the sixth-highest ERA in the last 50 years, which doesn't sound much better.
"There are so many horrifying and yet mesmerizing pitching numbers to look at — to repeat my personal favorite, 13 different pitchers started more than five games for these Royals. All 13 had ERAs higher than 5.00. No one will ever break that record. But there are plenty of other glorious stats to consider. For example, the Royals starters allowed hitters a .492 slugging percentage. This was higher than Derek Jeter's slugging percentage, and he's probably going to win the American League MVP award.
"Then, there was the team's 6.96 ERA in the daytime. That's probably a record. In 46 day games — and this is really quite incredible — Royals pitchers allowed 86 home runs. Fortunately, the Royals' pitches were slightly more difficult to pick up under the lights (the Royals' night ERA was a more sane 5.17) or else Kansas City might have become the first team in baseball history to give up 300 home runs in a season.
"The Royals had an ERA higher than 5.00 every single month of the season. That's consistency. The relievers blew 31 saves, a new team record. The Royals gave up 10 runs or more 13 times — I'm just going to assume that's a lot."
And so on. And on.
Like Chris Knight, I'm much more impressive on paper than in reality.
1) Will Manny Acta make the difference
2) Who is Manny Acta?
Parking does.
I guess I could just look it up.
One of the characters said that a sabermetrician proved without a doubt that Joe Jackson was innocent of throwing the 1919 World Series.
Except for the taking the money part I guess.
The thing is only college professors get to wear those jackets.
Plus, I hear that the college guy get pipes with their cordury jackets. It's all about the corduroy jackets and pipes.
Pretty much anything cool among the 70's college professor crowd is awesome.
Jeans, mocassins, plaid shirt, tweed/corduroy jacket (with elbow patches), pipe, beard.
That's what it's all about.
http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/482032.html
Don't know how Lugo feels but probably unpleasant. I mean, here are the numbers:
Lugo:
OBP SLG AVG
LAD .317 .296 .241
TBDR .373 .498 .308
Betemit:
LAD .321 .471 .257
AB .344 .497 .281
When some here spoke of regressing, we can see just who is regressing now that Betemit's playing everyday. And he cannot otherwise hit left-handed pitching, so what happens if the Dodgers face Johnson, Santana or Buehrle in the World Series? Any team can otherwise get a very nearly automatic out or remove Betemit from the game by simply bringing in that left-handed reliever with men on base in the late innings.
And Vin and some others wonder why the Dodger's were so lucky to latch onto the Second Coming. To answer Vin and those others, Betemit was never going to take Chipper's place, he's apparently not better than Marcus Giles nor will he be in the forseeable future, and Furcal left, which left the door wide open for him, but instead, the Braves went out and got Edgar "I made 30 errors playing short for the Bosox last year" Renteria. What does that say? And Betemit had been in the Braves organization his entire career, yes? So if anyone knew the player he was capable of becoming it was the Braves, yes? And they signed him at how old again? Did the Braves know something that Ned & Grady didn't? And for a more complete perspective, Giles is arbitration eligible this year, and the word on the street in Braves country is that the Braves might simply let Giles go and have Aybar take over at second. And that, not because because he can hit righties better than Betemit, as he can't, but he can hit lefties at something better than less than a buck. Oh, sorry, one more. For those who said, well, he .240 against lefties on the Braves this year. Yeah, he did. Now go over to the MLB website and go team by team. Betemit either went 1.000 or 0.000, or very nearly so. It was either feast or famine, and he starved against lefties far more than he ate. I will let someone else determine the ERA of the lefties that he did feast against.
And here's why Lugo, at least if the Dodgers would like to win the Series this year:
Yankees [6 games]:
Tropicana Field .385 .333 .333
Yankee Stadium .385 .273 .273
Totals .385 .304 .304
Chisox [3 games]:
Tropicana .308 .385 .308
Detroit [4 games]:
Comerica .368 .529 .294
Boston [8 games]:
Fenway Park .333 .412 .294
Tropicana .389 .533 .267
And no more American League jokes, since the NL is clearly the inferior league, since, among other items, of all NL teams, only the CR and the SFG have a winning record in interleague play.
So, just when I was hoping that we might put thirty some years of futility behind us, I suppose that I stand corrected. Oh, and I don't count '89, since in addition to anything that anyone else might have done, that team doesn't win without Orel that year, and for that year, there was no Orel-substitute [as it were].
In the meantime, for those who study such things, well, based on some BP/Pecota figures, Lugo is supposed to rate as the 5th best shortstop in baseball. He's riding our bench in favor of a guy who can't hit lefthanders and so will never be an everyday player, at least for a team that considers futility a failure.
And for a final word, never ever take a player's performance against your team as being indicative of anything more or other than how he hits against you:
Dodger Stadium .429 .857 .429
Turner Field 1.000 1.000 1.000
So, in 9 AB's versus the LAD, Betemit went:
.556 .889 .556
Lugo will otherwise, well, there are no other comparable shortstops in this year's free agent market, and so while he won't he get Furcal money [only the Dodgers are that stupid], he will get more than he should, somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-23 million over 4 years. BP says he's worth 17 million over 4 years. So call the extra the "I'm the only decent thing" available premium. And as I remarked a while back, he prefers shortstop, but given his arm strength and tendency to be erratic at times, second base is a much better fit. And, again, that's why some other good teams, the Red Sox, the Mets, etc., all wanted to trade for him this year and have him play second base. The problem they each had was one does not get to talk with the other team's players. If they had been able to do so, well, when Lugo was negotiating with the TBDR, he kept coming back to the matter of whether the TBDR truly wanted to win. So that would have been the hook. You can either play short for a long-term loser like the TBDR, or you can play second for a winner. I was hoping that management here would have the smarts to do so, but as I said, I suppose that I now stand corrected.
For one last word re regression, well, our friends at BP expected Lugo to regress after his 2005 season, which was well above their prediction. Not only did he not regress this year, his .295 BA was up to .308, his .362 OBP was up to .373, and his .403 SLG was up to .498. According to fans of the TBDR, the explanation for the absence of the regression is simply that, like Koufax, Lugo found it, and he found in the latter half of the 2004 season and hasn't been the same player since. I'll will otherwise leave it to the numbers people to notify BP that statistics don't apply so well to human future performance, given that machines and other things mechanical cannot improve themselves on a permament basis while humans can. Well, tell them that, and also that only the fool thinks that human improvement constitutes a "statistical anomaly."
And, hey, if the "we don't know how to build a long-term winner" Dodgers management wants to get bench and then get rid of a guy who was outperforming Betemit in a league with superior pitching, and that with the guy having to face all pitchers while Betemit far more often than not sat against your more sinister pitchers, well, I suppose that it's their money and their tradition, so if they want to waste and trash the same, so be it.
That's good stuff right there.
In case that apology is unacceptable, which, given its structure, would be if it were offered to me, I'll add this one: I'm sorry. It should, at least, be of some comfort that, in order to be as big a jerk about it as I decided to be, I spent a long time, on a Friday night, trolling through archives instead of, like, having some sort of life. Anyway; don't know if you'll read this, but, here it is.
The bar's set to 130, now, Terry. Good luck.
Yet I am bloodied but unbowed. One-thirty it is.
http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2006/10/11/17030/132
and this:
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/10/18/211833/88
Credit: http://dcbb.blogspot.com/
We'll see.
"If you lived even a little closer, Brock and I would kidnap you, and then hogtie you in front of a t.v. (his t.v., specifically; I don't need any more blood on my carpet) and fix this whole problem within two episodes.
"And then we'd make you eat two spoonfulls of dog food, mixed in spaghetti. Just for kicks."
Before the national do-not-call list, this was remarkably effective in getting rid of telemarketers:
"Sorry, I can't talk now. I thought you were the ambulance. The police are still here, and there's blood everywhere!!!."
I think that's what it comes down to. Arguing the rest is as moot as arguing that we should have gotten Piazza as a backup catcher.
GregBrock: your GPA is fine. GPA really doesn't matter for grad school admission, because it's impossible to comapare across schools, or even majors, with any confidnence. The only signal that GPA can send is a bad one. In this era of ridiculous grade inflation, a low GPA is a red flag. But 3.8 is fine. The GRE is much more important, because it's the same test for everyone. That and your essay (or statement of purpose or whatever they call it).
Other fields may vary. Heed at your own discretion.
And for LAT, yeah,parking in West LA and around UCLA sucks, but, um, that problem goes away if you're not driving. Unless you like parking other people's cars for fun.
D4P: One neat thing about West LA is that you CAN walk to restaurants, groceries, post office, banks, etc. Honestly, I only ever drive if I'm leaving town or need to shlep a lot of stuff somewhere. Otherwise, it's the bike or the bus.
That wasn't me. That was an example of somebody else's writing from a previous thread.
I had harbored illusions of doing grad work in history, but in my sophomore year a professor told me that I would never be very good at it. And in my senior year, another professor told me this. Unsolicited advice both times! I was told I didn't write well.
However, I did do very well on the GRE and I actually got a grant for library school. I believe I qualified for a grant for tall, skinny straight guys going to library school.
I would also echo GoBears comments about walking around West LA. I rarely go to that part of town, but when I was a student, I walked as much as I could and I only drove when I went back to my parents house in the Valley or if I wanted to go to Santa Monica or some place like that.
And one of them won a Distinguished Faculty award of some kind.
With the other one, I saw a book written by the man available on the library's order sheet. I recommended not buying it.
It wasn't solely out of revenge however. It really wasn't a public library type book. Not that I felt sad.
Of course, if you don't like the free agent market this year, I guess that's fine.
I don't like the free agent market this year. I think the contracts these players will get will dwarf the one Drew got, and look how happy many of the Dodger fans are that the Dodgers don't have to pay the remaining 3 years.
I'd argue that Furcal and Nomar were impact players, and I think that Bonds and Alou would be impact players.
I could hardly imagine any of them impressing enough during an interview to get a job, yet they did. Wow.
That's good news about not having to drive and being able to walk, bike, or bus. That's what I want to hear. I met with three UCLA faculty this morning, and had an informal interview with one. I brought up some of my concerns about LA (e.g. affordability, transportation, etc.), and they pretty much said what you said (i.e. that you can live in places that let you bike/bus to UCLA). They also mentioned some kind of housing assistance for new faculty (e.g. a low-interest loan), but didn't know much about it.
I would have no problem sticking with payroll flexibility, and shying away from the five/six year deals as well. Unless, you know, it's a young bonfide ace, or a young masher who becomes eligible for FA.