The madness has already started today
El Duque re-signed with the Mets for 2 years/$12 million
Mark DeRosa signed with the Cubs for 3 years $13 million

I now expect Nomar to get at least 3 years $30 million. I could definitely see Ted Lilly getting close to $40 million over 4 years. It's time for Ned to turn his attention to guys like Pat Burrell and David Dellucci.

The Rockies have apparently put Jason Jennings on the trade market. He'd be a nice pickup depending on what the Dodgers would have to give up.

In other words, if the Dodgers now have $120 million to spend (instead of $100 mil), then comparing player values to previous years is moot. All boats are being floated.

With these crazy contracts, the Marlins' stragegy looks even more brilliant. I also like the Nationals strategy, don't overpay for mediocre free agents and sign several minor league free agents, who could be just as effective as guys making 10 times their salary.

I've always preferred bargain players, but since they've already priced me out of live-game attendance, why should I care anymore? If I'm just gonna watch on TV anyway, let's win.

Face it, we're getting either Moises Alou or Luis Gonzalez to replace Drew. And Kemp will be in CF.

Is there some way we can get Alou and Gonzalez? I'd rather pay them a combined $10 million over one season than what Soriano and Lee are asking.

I thought that was the title of a movie about a former Boston/Seattle banjo-hitting shortstop being elected US President.

There's no way Colletti is making an offer to Drew.

I think you guys are missing the point somewhat about the need to keep young, cheap guys around. The reason for the anticipated big money deals this winter is that teams can afford them. They have the money. That doesn't mean its not important to have young cheap guys to fill out a roster, but I don't think its any more important this year than before.

Given our other SoCal team, The Pasadena* of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and their GM/Owner's proclaimation to bring in a bat, would an offer of 5/$75 be surprising?

*Pasadena is where Drew and wife love to live.

To me, I'd pass on Drew, knowing Boras will likely get someone to sign him for 5/$75 in this seller's market.

I like your plan of two decent players for the salary of one good player, but an outfield of Gonzo, Ethier, and Alou would also need Furcal out there playing rover.

id rather have Alou then Gonzalez. At least Alou is still a beast with the bat.

Not sure we want his arm anywhere near CF.

i realize that. I understand that signing alou for 2007 basically means you can only pencil him for 100-125 games or so. But in those games, you can probably expect an OPS+ of 120-130, which is pretty good production. the rest of the games can be given to someone like Kemp.

(free agent, not personality)

When you're talking about a high-budget team like the Dodgers, it's even less relevant. There's a shape to the market, but the only relevant comparisons for salaries are what happens during one specific season, e.g. who is worth more, Zito or Schmidt? Assume both will be overpaid. But which one should you overpay more?

Yesterday's "overpaid" is next seasons' bargain (Furcal, Drew if he'd stayed) And I'm sure Florida, Minnesota and Oakland would jump into the FA market feet first if they could afford it.

http://tinyurl.com/ybbxpx

(personality, not free agent)

(blood, not personality or free agent)

There are few secret major league stars. Everyone patted Beane on the back for using his secret sauce to find Milton Bradley, but we Dodger fans knew he was a fine player without having to dive too deeply into the numbers. He got traded for his off-field conduct, period. (That trade was more of an Al Davis move than a Billy Beane move.) Beane isn't letting Zito go because his slide rule says he should. He's letting him go because he can't afford him.

i chuckled.

To some extent, yes. But it's not as if all GMs buy into whatever undervalued/underappreciated skill, stat, etc. that Beane or Depo or anyone else believes they have discovered. I doubt, for example, that Ned is checking out EQAs and WARPs and RATE2s. You may not be able to outwit every other GM, but you can probably outwit a lot of them.

I bet he pays someone to do that. I bet most of them do. Why not -- it's basically public information, for the price of a subscription to BP, for about the same price as Derek Lowe's pedicure budget for spring training.

Why would you avoid helpful information? I'm sure our loyal reader Josh Ravitch has told him about those lively boys at Dodgerthoughts and all their talk about these wacky acronyms. He might use his gut to override what those numbers say, but by this time I should think it would be part of a front office's duty to keep track of this stuff--if for no other reason, to help in negotiations with agents.

"My boy's got the highest EQA of any left handed first baseman in the game! Pay up!"

"The EQ-what now? Me, I prefer usin' VORP. His VORP is crap."

Um...Yay! (Sorry EJM, you Pierre lover you).

I don't like Lee because he has no defensive value and his career OBP is .340. With him youre basically paying for power and little else; I'd like my big ticket items to be much more versitle than that.

I'd don't like Soriano because, like Lee, he's a corner OF with serious OBP issues. In his case your paying for the power and the speed, the two most consitently expensive skills in the game. Besides, he had his career high in SLG and OBP last year, the chances of him matching that at any point in his contract are pretty small, yet he'll be paid like an 900 OPS guy. He'd be a nice addition for the right price, but I really doubt the we'll be lamenting the Dodgers not signing him in the years to come.

My guess is that Soriano and Lee go elsewhere, there are more than enough teams interested with plenty of cash. I'd rather pay a half-decent vet (as unexciting as that sounds) and rely on Logan White and his staff to find another Ethier in the rough.

The only player out there that I think is worth paying big money to is Soriano and he's still a bit iffy. I'm talking about position players, not pitchers here.

Nothing...nothing is more irritating to me than giving complete average players money to do the job someone else could do for the minimum. I'll take Alou...like Nate said, the guy can still hit...he may not player 162 games but the guy hits well enough to warrant giving him a shot with Kemp filling in for him on days off.

If I'm Ned I might make a nice offer to Soriano..it's tough to turn down a 40 HR guy especially when our lineup is severely lacking in power. Other than that, I go after Schmidt and maybe look into a salary dump type trade (i.e. Burrell)

That's not the issue. The issue is whether you think the information is helpful in the first place.

It wasn't this year. At least not certainly.

I feel the same way about Kemp, why pay pierre or GM JR. when Kemp can do a suitable job and I think only get better. Either way Id say its a net upgrade over last years Loften....... I get the feeling that Ned doesnt feel the same way about it though.

Im going to argue sample size unless there are horrid defensive #s in the minors which I have no idea of.

Did anybody notice that Lugo only just barely made the A-type FA cut? Wow. I mean, that could have hurt.

might be the right answer, its just Im personally sick of the yearly stopgaps, especialy if this team doesnt come together before April id just say let um play

More importantly, it seems like your making a judgement on Kemp's defense from watching him with the Dodgers last year, and unless your a scout or you saw a lot of him in the minors, I'd don't think your opinion on the matter should hold much, if any, weight.

56. If I was Ned, I'd sign Lofton to a small one year deal (say, $2-3m) and if Kemp really needs more time in AAA, then you platoon Repko and Lofton until either Kemp is ready or the production from those two is so unimpressive that you move Kemp into the position anyway. The key is building the rest of the lineup strong enough so that you can bat your center fielder 8th the whole season.

Colletti said Drew's decision would not make him any more likely to surrender top prospects in a trade.

"We've got some good young players here," Colletti said. "At this stage, you're not going to fix everything by buying up contracts or by buying free agents."

Consider Kemp and Grady Sizemore at the same age. Sizemore debuted in the majors in 2004 at age 21 for 138 ab's, his OPS was 739. Kemp debuted last season, at the same age, and with similar playing time, had a 737 OPS. Continueing the Sizemore comparison: Grady's career minor league line (through age 21) was .293/.383/.417 and Kemp's is .309/.357/.516. It may seem like Sizemore was a much more polished hitter, but Sizemore had a 1.7 K/BB ratio in his last minor league season, and Kemp had an identical 1.7 K/BB ratio last year.

And it's not as if Kemp struggled as much as people think, BP had him with a .260 EQA last year (league average). Because he 'looked' bad to the untrained eye he's not ready? That's not convincing to me in the slightest.

case and point,... Ramon Martinez

Combine this with his career year at age 31, I'm really hoping Colletti doesn't sign Matthews Jr., especially when we could just resign Lofton for nearly the same production (albeit he wouldn't play nearly as often).

68- Rowand, Brady Clark, Andruw Jones, and Griffey were worse, this year, in just the NL, according to Chris Dial's version of UZR. Reed, Baldelli, Bloomquist, Kotsay, Mackowiak, Crisp, and Gary Matthews were worse than Kenny, in the AL. Kenny was bad, no doubt about it. But he probably wasn't the worst in the game.

http://tinyurl.com/gkomp

does rate2 take in consideration of balls Loften couldnt reach? there is also the fact that Loften's arm probably took away several attempts at base runners going to 3rd for example, which Matthews may have committed an error on, similar to the Soriano theory of assists

I'd love to see the Dodgers buy low on Ryan Langerhans. I've always thought that he could become a great defensive cf.

I don't much trust any rankings. But I also don't trust my eyes. And I don't trust anybody else. So, then what? Can't just ignore it entirely.

Red Sox officially winning negotiation rights to Matsuzaka. Bob's smug dinner-eating attitude fails to bite him in the butt. . . this time.

72. The fact that those metrics think guys like Rowand, Jones, Baldelli, Clark, Matthews, and Kotsay were worse than Lofton should tell you how much they're worth. As for Bloomquist and Mackowiak, they weren't full time players, which was my point, I should've made that clear. As for Griffy and Crisp, I can believe those guys could've been worse than Lofton.

The main point here is that I don't think any defensive stat is really that great, and when you try to use them in a small sample size, its useless.

74. Everyone is entitled to express their opinion, I'm not saying anyone can't. Im just saying that I don't find some opinions all that meaningfull, and I feel the freedom to express why.

78- Have the scouts said Kemp was better than Lofton, last year?

http://tinyurl.com/yky6qz

Off the top of my head, what about Ryan Church? Nice talent, wouldn't cost us a boatload to get him...Anyone have any other ideas?

I swear, I'm not trying to horn my way in on the Lerners.

hahahahaha. I'd take him. His k's are brutal but it's hard to deny a 400 OBP that hits 40 HR.

"Lynn Robinson, M.Ed., is one of the nation's leading experts on the topic of intuition."

I sort of had a feeling that she was.

Dodger fans, I know that you may not want to hear this or want the player but Cantu may be on the trading block. He's 25, has 20+ HR potential but just has a horrible glove and lacks range.

http://tinyurl.com/wjgkh

Where does Delwyn Young stand in the Dodger outfield projections? I don't have a concrete feeling about where his development is. Mid-season replacement, one year, two years, one good spring training away? Anyone?

"Don't challenge me at things I am good at," Sheffield said. "I am a businessman first. Playing baseball is what I do. People said I needed an agent but I got what I wanted. Nineteen years later I got my point across: You can't beat me on or off the field."

All that talent. So humble, too.

http://tinyurl.com/ykxw9a

what are they going to do with upton?

Rivalries. Can't beat 'em.

http://tinyurl.com/y4kzp4

And this caught my eye as well: Just another day for 54-year-old Scott Boras, baseball's most powerful agent

I just don't understand what makes Boras special. What's to stop other agents from making the same kind of demands Boras makes? What's so special about him? Can't anyone choose to do what he does? Ask for more than what the team wants to give you, and don't give in. What's so clever and unique about that?

Think we could get him for Stults and Alexander or some mid tier pitching prospect?

Want Zito? Boras says Zito, 28, is destined to be the finest left-handed starter since Steve Carlton by the time he's 35. There's a fancy 74-page glossy book to prove it.

Boras works hard for his (top) clients. he prepares a novel for each of his clients to prove their worth.

He does not tell me humorous Elijiah Dukes stories. The dude is flat out nuts. Cantu is nuts in a "fight for my teammates" kind of way. Dukes is nuts in a "dear lord, this guy is bad news" kind of way. No thanks.

I want to be Dave Hardee.

Boras, insisting (Alex) Rodriguez does not want to leave the New York Yankees, wants to subtly remind clubs it's foolish for any to even consider trading for Rodriguez. Rodriguez can opt out after each of the next three years. He can be an unrestricted free agent after 2007. If he does not get a $5 million raise for the 2009 and 2010 seasons, he can leave any preceding year.

"I'm sure (Rangers owner) Tom Hicks would like to see that happen," Boras says, "but teams don't realize the cost involved trading for (Rodriguez). The reality is ... he doesn't want to go anywhere."

He's the best. It's like saying "Hey, just do what Pujols does, and you'll be great." Well, Boras is the Pujols of agents (except, again, not human).

I don't buy that. Not many people can hit a ball as far as Pujols. But who can't make ridiculous demands and not back down from them? That's not to say that everyone would make such demands, but I don't see why they couldn't if they wanted to.

A) He's very smart
B) He works harder than everybody else
C) He has great management skills
D) He has a long range vision for his clients

That's usually how it works. I know I probably sound sarcastic, but I'm not (I wouldn't insult you! You're D4P...COME ON!).

Matsuzaka...51 million dollar bid...WOW.

Whether or not he is what you say he is doesn't really seem to matter. The bottom line seems to be: make ridiculous demand and don't back down. I just don't see what else is necessary. If one team turns you down, go to the next, and repeat until someone gives in. If they don't give in, well, that doesn't really seem to have happened yet, so a backup plan doesn't even seem necessary.

The "negotiations" between owners and agents seem increasingly one-sided, and agents/players pretty much have all the "hand" right now. Just hold your ground and someone will be desperate enough to give in. It's fine to think that this is what agents should do, but I don't see anything impressive about it. It's what I would expect any agent to do.

There's a reason why Clarence Darrow was Clarence Darrow, and Larry H. Parker is, well, Larry H. Parker.

And man, I'm enjoying it.

Sorry.

Upton, not gonna happen this year. The Rays aren't likely to trade Upton without giving him a full year at 3B. Now, if we traded him and the other team moved him to the OF...so be it. Won't be moved to the OF by the Rays, though. Crawford, Baldelli and Young are proven stallwarts.

Iwamura, if the rumor is true, means that Cantu's days are numbered. He's far worse of a fielder than Upton. Upton's only problem is footwork, while Cantu's glove-work/footwork/range make him horrible all-around as a fielder. I believe he was voted the worst fielder in baseball, according to the Fielding Bible or something.

108 & 109- Upton is safe, for now.

Crawford isn't going anywhere unless we basically got Lowe, Ethier and Elbert for him. I know that it seems insane and I'm pretty much choosing names randomly, but that's what kind of a deal that the Rays want for Crawford. If there's 2 players that the Rays are going to overvalue, it's Crawford and Kazmir.

114- The Rays would want a near-MLB starter for Dukes, just because we could easily place him at 1B and make due with him. Probably not asking for a top-notch SP prospect, though.

116- Your friend isn't lying.

It's really apples and oranges, for more than just the reasons I've listed here.

If players like Martin, Billingsley, Broxton and Betemit improve next year to the point that they become players to build the team around, we should lock all of them up and buyout their arbitration years to go along with a couple of vesting team options for the first couple free agency years.

basically what the Drays did with Carl Crawford and his 4yr 15.25mil deal + 2 team options after his 2nd major league season.

the risk is obviously injury and regression down the line. But the payoff is huge salary saved and a fixed cost that would make it easier for payroll management down the line.

I dunno, im bored and free agency this year is boring.

So, anyhoo, I'm thinking of getting into the bee business. You in?

that is really reallly...reallly tempting actually.

Bees? Or beads...? BZZZZZZZZZ

Ethier is a year younger than Crawford, and yet out OPSed Crawford by 12 points this past season. If, nevertheless, Crawford is better than Ethier, is he really "Lowe + Elbert" better...?

beane never extended them beyond their arbitration years like what the rays did with crawford.

Duly noted. And filed in the archives.

Have I not mentioned that already?

I think the stuff with David Morse has been excellent, but I haven't watched tonight's episode so don't tell me anything about it.

For Alfonso Soriano, there are 11 suitors. They are as Follows:

Angels
Astros
Angels
Astros
Angels
Astros
Cubs
Dodgers
Mets
Phillies
Orioles

Somebody needs a better proofreader over at the WWL.

You, however, are not.

Yet.

Negotiation isn't just about the demand. It's not a one-sentence conversation.

I understand what everyone is saying, but I just can't buy it. If I'm an owner, I don't care how many glossy books I'm shown or how many times I'm told player X is the best (insert position name) in the league. It's not as if I have no familiarity with the players myself or with their stats. I can make my own assessments of their worth, and don't have to rely solely upon their agents' evaluations.

While I have no desire to defend the owners, I also don't think they're generally gullible enough to believe Boras. Rather, the bottom line seems to be that competition for scarce resources demands that they have to give in if they want good players. Unless they want to go the "Moneyball" route, they don't have much choice.

This has been your summary of other people's thoughts with your host, Andrew Shimmin. Yakshimash.

I agree with your second paragraph, and I think Andrew makes good points in 157. I just question how dismissive you are of Boras' glossy books. I suspect that in many cases, Boras can cause GMs to think of players in ways they hadn't considered. It might be small, but it might be the only edge he needs.