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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
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10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
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12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Garciaparra Signing Defies Easy Analysis
2006-11-20 07:45
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Pretty tough to look at the Nomar Garciaparra resigning in a vacuum. The move is neither inherently good or bad, and its value will depend on how the Dodgers proceed over the rest of the offseason.

It's not as if on November 20, the Dodger roster has more talent than it knows what to do with. There is currently a spot for Oscar Robles. And while you obviously don't need to spend $18 million over two years just to keep Robles off the 25-man, there is obviously room for someone as talented as Garciaparra. The signing also keeps the folks that need an old-school name they can brag about off general manager Ned Colletti's back for the offseason.

Nevertheless, it's a complicated transaction to analyze.

Garciaparra had a tremendous first half in 2006 and a second half that would have been abysmal had it not been for indispensable game-winning home runs in September against San Diego and Arizona. The assumption is that injuries hindered his output, rather than the league exploiting his weaknesses. This is only slightly comforting because a) it might not be true and b) even if it is true, the injuries aren't likely to stop.

It seems too much to wish for that Garciaparra will OPS 1.004 before the All-Star break again, but the presence of James Loney at first base means the Dodgers can rest Garciaparra more when he needs it and perhaps keep him from repeating his .694 post-All Star OPS.

Ah, Loney. Yes, the Dodger roster needs help, but seemingly not at first base, which Loney ably manned after his second-half recall, OPSing 1.099 in about 67 plate appearances. Loney's presence, plus the Dodgers' seeming desire to keep Garciaparra at first base, threatens to make the Garciaparra signing redundant. Garciaparra's value increases exponentially for every extra position he plays, but if he is insurance at only one position, it almost becomes like Jim and Ryan dancing around who takes the desk near Pam in The Office. (Personally, I have doubts that Andy LaRoche will be major-league ready at third base by April, and I still hope that Garciaparra will see some playing time there as Wilson Betemit's partner.)

Loney and Garciaparra both figure to have a slump in him some point in 2007 - virutally all players have them. Loney also figures to get the Willy Aybar treatment of being benched indefinitely, while Garciaparra would get the Jeff Kent treatment - veteran who's allowed to play through. The double standard is irritating. But the bottom line is that Garciaparra can't play 162 games any more than J.D Drew, and Loney will get his at-bats at first. Loney can also play a little outfield - maybe a lot, for all we know, though Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tried to send a chill up our spines by handing Loney chronic knee problems.

Signing Garciaparra doesn't solve the Dodgers' Waiting-for-Kemp problem in center field unless it pushes Andre Ethier into that position. Garciaparra's salary could drain resources that could go into paying (or overpaying) for pitching. And Garciaparra himself could possibly keep Loney on the bench at a moment when Loney is threatening to be a better player than Garciaparra (though we should let Loney develop at his own pace rather than expect him to be Todd Helton on a moment's notice). Olmedo Saenz might be all the right-handed assistance the Dodgers need at first base.

In a Lara Thin Boyle free-agent market, however, with the Dodgers millions and millions away from reaching their payroll limit, whatever it is, it seems almost snobbish to suggest that the Dodgers can't benefit from Garciaparra's presence. Well, "snobbish" might not be the right word, but my point is just that even though first base isn't a need position for the Dodgers, I'm not so confident that they will be able to solve all their true needs this offseason, which might leave depth at some positions as the next alternative.

If the worst-case scenario is that the Dodgers now have two talented first basemen, than the obvious benefit is that Colletti can trade one. The issue of whether Colletti would get an appropriate return for an exciting prospect like Loney or, down the road, a big name like Garciaparra is a separate one, and shouldn't be tied into the evaluation of this signing. Not yet, anyway.

Update: Garciaparra contract details, from The Associated Press ...

... a $2.5 million signing bonus, which is deferred until 2009 and 2010, and salaries of $7.5 million next season and $8.5 million in 2008. He would get an additional $250,000 each year for 500 plate appearances.

Comments (371)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-11-20 07:56:05
1.   CharlieBrown
I think one can say that in terms of dollars and years, this deal looks pretty good. Or, at least not obviously bad (cough, just about every other FA deal this offseason, cough). The only way it could be a disaster is if Nomar sustains a serious injury. But doesn't insurance pay some of the cost if the player is injured?
2006-11-20 07:58:23
2.   Gen3Blue
It is becoming apparent that Drew's decision made this signing almost inevitable. I like Nomar, but I agree the more positions he plays, the better this deal looks, and this move can't be evaluated till a lot more gears turn.
2006-11-20 08:23:17
3.   Eric Enders
Teams typically don't spring for insurance on short-term contracts like this. And even if they did, I doubt anyone would insure Nomar against injury. The insurance companies do want to stay in business, after all.
2006-11-20 08:31:06
4.   jakewoods
Nomar may be injury prone but that wouldnt preclude them from getting insurance.

He gets banged up with little injuries. Not major ones. The wrist thing was 6 yrs ago. He doesnt have a degenerative condition or anything. I dont see why they couldnt get insurance.

2006-11-20 08:40:28
5.   Bob Timmermann
Do we have any underwriters among us?
2006-11-20 08:41:55
6.   underdog
Well said, Jon. (Except a slightly Maedchen Amick-able >>whap<< for "Lara Thin Boyle".)

I think the LA Times piece had it right; compare to the Soriano deal Nomar looks like a steal, even if he isn't. As I'd said here before, he's a super-utility player basically, who will play 1st and 3rd, and yeah, this puts less pressure on Loney. Also Saenz is more useful as a pinch hitter and occasional starter.

I still wish there were more power options out there but the ones there are don't seem worth it. I'd rather LA get a top line starter.

How do DT readers feel about bringing back Dave Roberts (not a power hitter but he'd be better than Kenny Lofton...)

2006-11-20 08:43:18
7.   Greg Brock
At three years and 12 mil per, I hated it.

At two years and 9 mil per, I think it's just fine. Where he plays, well, that's another kettle of fish.

2006-11-20 08:45:56
8.   underdog
After the "Dreifort Affair" I think the Dodgers should put in an insurance clause like that in every contract now.
2006-11-20 08:47:55
9.   Bob Timmermann
8

That was "L'arraire Dreifort". Emile Zola got very worked up about it.

2006-11-20 08:49:25
10.   JoeyP
This isnt a bad deal.
I think those quick to put faith into Loney should be a little cautious.
He'd done basically very little up until last year.

Nomar at 2/18 is ok.
I dont mind if he plays 1st in 2007, but hopefully in 2008 he can play 2nd base after Kent leaves.

2006-11-20 09:06:23
11.   sanchez101
Why are people so sure that Nomar can/will play multiple positions? If the Dodgers thought or wanted Nomar to play at 3rd or the OF, why didn't they go for it last year?

Nomar played 1B, and still had a hard time staying healthy. I don't think moving between 3B, 1B, and the OF is going to keep him any healthier, in fact it would only increase his injury risk.

This contract puts the Dodgers in a weird position where they can maximize their investment by using him in a utility role, or they can safe-guard their investment by using him exclusively at 1B. I suppose the path they choose may depend on how the rest of the team plays out.

2006-11-20 09:13:31
12.   Rob M
I feel like Olmaedo Saenz is woefully under-used. I'd love to see him get a full season of platoon starts against LH starters, along with pinch-hitting on off nights. Considering the gaps in the outfield, maybe Nomar's best option is playing some left field. I doubt that it's much harder on this body than 1st base. There are a lot fewer plays to make out there.
2006-11-20 09:17:45
13.   Jon Weisman
11 - I don't think anyone's sure Nomar can play multiple positions or that he will. But I think there's reason to believe that playing something besides first base once in a blue moon does not increase his injury risk significantly.
2006-11-20 09:25:48
14.   StolenMonkey86
Nomar at 2/18 is ok.
I dont mind if he plays 1st in 2007, but hopefully in 2008 he can play 2nd base after Kent leaves.

Cynicism tells me that the plan is for Nomar to spend a year at 2nd in 2008, and that he wants to play there, and then his value gets higher as he hits the free agent market. I would be fine of a year of Loney in right while Nomar played first if that's the case. If Nomar is productive at 2nd, then I could understand paying him over $9m/year, but for now, I like this deal.

Prediction: Laroche will get a tryout a bit later on this year, and by next offseason, he or Betemit will be traded.

2006-11-20 09:27:04
15.   Midwest Blue
Nomar's a good deal, better if he plays 3B and outfield and best if he plays 2B next year.

The outrageous FA contracts this year mean we'll probably have to offer Zito 6/15 mil to sign. Stupid, but do we have a choice?

Can we - should we - trade for Manny?

2006-11-20 09:28:39
16.   Midwest Blue
I agree with Betamit or La Roche being traded. I just hope it's Betamit.
2006-11-20 09:32:05
17.   dagwich
I like this signing, especially if Nomar is willing to put aside his diva tendencies and happily play where Grady tells him to.

Trading for Burrell is I think a key move (assuming it can be done without losing key pitchers). If the Phils perceive Burrell as overpaid so much the better, we should be able to dump some of we think of as overpaid air burners (like our Tampa Bay H&H duo).

Speaking of Tampa Bay, anybody know what's up with BJ Upton? I've seen him play several games in Durham and the guy can really hit. Any chance he can be converted to CF?

2006-11-20 09:48:50
18.   StolenMonkey86
15 - Here are the numbers that say we should get Manny:

Career:
.314/.411/.600, 470 HR (14 AB/HR)

Here are the ones that say no:

Rate2 (LF, career): 91
ZR, LF, by year:
2001: .877
2002: .779
2003: .789
2004: .750
2005: .729
2006: .694

2006-11-20 10:02:14
19.   Linkmeister
17 I don't recall Nomar exhibiting any diva tendencies. What I recall is seeing a guy who really enjoys the game and one who played a brand-new position very well. If the LAT story is accurate, he also exhibited a willingness to play yet another position he's rarely played (34 games at 3B lifetime) if Loney's ready.

Sounds like a guy I'd like to have on my team.

2006-11-20 10:02:42
20.   Midwest Blue
18 Thanks. I'd also be interested in knowing how many games he's missed per year over the last few years. I think that number has gone up as well.
2006-11-20 10:07:31
21.   Jonny6
I realize that you have to take all comments and analysis with a grain of salt when people are busy negotiating contracts and trying to sign for the most money possible, but Nomar's willingness to play 3rd, if necessary, has been mentioned several times and I'm starting to believe that he actually means it. It appears that Garciaparra wanted to stay with the Dodgers, and while not exactly making concessions in the signing process, he at least enabled things to go as smoothly as possible.

What's interesting, is that as high as everybody is on Loney for his late-season surge, people we're nearly as excited about Betemit during his post-trade honeymoon period. Unfortunately, Betemit's plate production declined as the season wound down, and his defense looked nearly as bad as "Saenz looking like a baby grasping at Cheerios" (I can't remember who came up with that zinger but I loved it).

So while I like the Nomar signing in principle, I wonder how it's going to play itself out. Because it's not just Loney that Garciaparra could be blocking, but also Betemit who is also young and certainly appears to have the raw skills to be an everyday MLB player. In an ideal world, Nomar would split time between 1st and 3rd and both Loney and Betemit would get at least a half season worth of starts. But my guess is that wherever Nomar ends up in the field, he will stick with that one position all season. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if he actually moved to 3rd, but I would be shocked if he split time equally between two positions, whether it's 1st and 3rd or 1st and LF or 3rd and LF. Wherever Grady decides to plug him in during spring training is where you should expect Nomar to stay throughout the course of the season.

This all leads me to a question that I haven't really seen posted recently: what should we do with Betemit? Do people think he has the potential to be a solid Dodger starter? If so, at what position? If not, should we trade him, when should we trade him, and what should we be able to receive in return.

Again, I agree with this Nomar deal, but I think it somehow opens up more questions than it answers.

2006-11-20 10:10:04
22.   KG16
Why wait on moving Nomar to second? Trade Kent for a solid outfielder, and have an infield of Loney-Nomar-Furcal-Betimet/LaRoche for the next two years while we try to develop a second baseman of the future in the minors.
2006-11-20 10:18:11
23.   Jacob L
Colletti's moves, with one or two exceptions (looking at you, Lugo) have a been nothing if not predictable. When Nomar hit those homers down the stretch, I figured he's coming back even if he gets a leg amputated the day after the season.

Along those same lines, Jeff Kent is not getting traded, much as I'd love to see it. Wake me when Ned trades a veteran.

2006-11-20 10:19:51
24.   blue22
17 - I think Burrell is staying now that Soriano is off the market. Philly could still become late bidders for Carlos Lee, or swing a deal for Manny, but I think the Burrell market has greatly diminished.
2006-11-20 10:20:07
25.   dagwich
19 I'm thinking of his last days with the Red Sox, not anything with the Cubs or Dodgers. Look, if he willingly does whatever it takes to win, I'm his biggest fan (actually I'm already a pretty big fan of his).

If that includes the JD treatment of skipping at least a game or two a week in the 1st part of the season, and to thus delay the onset of those inevitable numerous aches and pains then I hope he is OK with that. I suspect he is such an intense competitor that he doesn't know when to rest instead of playing hurt (until it's too late).

Sorry if I overstated that a bit.

2006-11-20 10:20:29
26.   ToyCannon
I don't think Nomar has any interest in playing 2nd base. If so he probably would be a Padre instead of a Dodger.
2006-11-20 10:23:20
27.   Marty
If the Dodgers trade Betemit, it will probably drive Vin into retirement.
2006-11-20 10:30:02
28.   Johnson
I don't really understand why there's a tendency to think that Kent is going to be gone in 2008. Sure, he'll be turning 40 during the season, but given the current FA market prices, is it really unfathomable that the Dodgers will pick up the $7.5M option on '08? Sounds like a bargain unless he falls apart physically this year. (Plus, he could vest in for '08 at $9M with 550 PA this year.)

Barring a trade or a career-ending injury, Kent will be the second baseman for the Dodgers for the next two years. No need to hypothesize Garciaparra taking over.

2006-11-20 10:31:30
29.   Bob Timmermann
27
Vin would be revitalized by the story of Luis Gonzalez's triplets.
2006-11-20 10:39:23
30.   blue22
28 - Let's see how Kent does this season, but you're right - Kent at $6.5M in '08 doesn't sound too bad.

Nothing shakes my faith in statistics, however, as much as looking up Jeff Kent's defensive stats for last year. His rate2 at 2B of 113 is startling.

2006-11-20 10:43:59
31.   still bevens
30 Small(er) sample size? Im not sure if VORP includes defensive stats, but I believe Kent was #4 this year for 2B.
2006-11-20 10:54:34
32.   katysdad
It's official. From Baseball Digest Daily:

The Los Angeles Dodgers announced today that they have re-signed six-time All-Star Nomar Garciaparra to a two-year contract through 2008, according to Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti.

Nomar played a huge role in the Dodgers success last season and an offensive threat like him is not easy to find, said Colletti. His versatility, mental toughness, clutch performances and leadership capabilities make him a perfect fit for this team.

Garciaparra, 33, was named to the National League All-Star team last season and earned NL Comeback Player of the Year honors from The Sporting News, the Players Choice Awards and on MLB.com as voted on by the fans. He batted .303 with 20 homers and 93 RBI in 122 games while making just four errors in 1,124 total chances for a .996 fielding percentage, the second-best mark among NL first basemen.

Where this leaves James Loney nobody knows...

2006-11-20 10:57:12
33.   blue22
31 - VORP - no. WARP - yes.

Kent had a good year (.291 eqa), even with the down power numbers. Assuming he doesn't turn into a complete statue out at 2nd, I'll give him a chance for 2008.

Unless you count a position change for Betemit or LaRoche, there are no obvious prospects being blocked by Kent.

2006-11-20 10:58:56
34.   Linkmeister
Hey, Jon, just so you know somebody noticed: the new speculative contract numbers on the sidebar (as of 11/19) are helpful. Thanks.
2006-11-20 11:00:53
35.   StolenMonkey86
26 - I'll give Nomar some loyalty credit, especially since he signed for under $10 million a year.
2006-11-20 11:02:50
36.   katysdad
32 - Though, after pulling my head out of the clouds, I guess everyone new Nomar's signing was official.

In other news everyone probably already new, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.

2006-11-20 11:05:36
37.   ToyCannon
31
Vorp does not include defensive stats.

30
That is the biggest problem I have with rate2 and with the posters who keep posting that metric as though it is the final word in defense when it seems very flawed.

2006-11-20 11:06:05
38.   blue22
35 - The Yankees need a fulltime 1B. I'm sure Nomar could've pimped himself to them for more than $9M per year. I think there might be something to him wanting to play in LA.
2006-11-20 11:08:18
39.   ToyCannon
33
I'd say that both Abreu and DeWitt should be ready to compete for 2nd base by 2008. Kent is already a statue and shouldn't be playing 2nd base when Lowe is pitching. It wasn't some accident that Webb had a Cy Young with Hudson playing 2nd base.
2006-11-20 11:10:20
40.   StolenMonkey86
Probably the only way to really judge defensive quality statistically is to

a) have a glossarry of what all the stats explain
b) look at every available defensive stat for similarities

that's why I like to go with zone rating too.

2006-11-20 11:12:03
41.   katysdad
Two quick quotes from Baseball Prospectus, the first with a disclaimer: Look away Bob Timmermann.

Frank Robinson on managing again: "I'd like to manage, but I would like to manage at the right spot. I'm at the stage where I'd want a ball club that at least going into the season had a chance to win a championship. I've had four ball clubs that I had a chance to build into a winner, and that's a tough way to go. I don't close the door to managing. I would've liked to manage this year."

Ned Colletti discussing average players: "They may be average, but they look above average to me. They're definitely closer to positive than negative. You try to make average your minimum, because average is pretty darned good."

2006-11-20 11:12:42
42.   Jon Weisman
37 - Yeah, I haven't used Rate2 in over a year. When I did my research on defensive stats for SI.com, it didn't seem to come out that well. Right now, I'm liking Dewan the best - but it's hard to get access to his numbers a lot of the time.
2006-11-20 11:12:58
43.   Bob Timmermann
I saw the Robinson quote yesterday. I've made peace with Frank.
2006-11-20 11:13:13
44.   StolenMonkey86
38 - that's what I was figuring, because they particularly could use a right-handed first baseman. Even the fact that he went with LA in the first place, back when a few other teams were gunning for him last year.

But the thought of Shea Hillenbrand in pinstripes makes me smile.

2006-11-20 11:13:47
45.   ToyCannon
I agree, it just bugs me when rate2 is posted without any other comparison numbers. I finally ordered the fielding bible and am looking forward to reading it so I have some reference when I'm hit with another rate2 number that seems to defy common sense.
2006-11-20 11:14:59
46.   brandesh
32 - Hopefully, this leaves Loney in right field... where he can have more value. Pipe dream I know...
2006-11-20 11:18:18
47.   blue22
40 - So Kent's "zone rating" was a brutal .782 (nearly dead last). His "range factor" was a pleasant 5.38 (4th if he qualified).

Range factor is strictly statistical. How many balls did you get to per 9 innings, which could be helped by Maddux and Lowe's heavy ground ball tendencies.

Zone rating requires a 3rd party to track what a players "zone" is and how many balls he got to.

Anyone know what rate2 is based on?

2006-11-20 11:18:30
48.   ninjavshippo
I think the idea that Nomar "wanted" to come back to LA puts him in many DTer's graces after the JDD breakup. My hope is that this is more than just a rebound thing and that we're not sure we're ready for a really serious relationship.
2006-11-20 11:18:37
49.   katysdad
43 _ Good for you, making peace. Good for the soul. Is St. Louis next?
2006-11-20 11:18:52
50.   regfairfield
The reason why I use rate2 is because it's the best defensive metric that's constantly updated. If I could access Dewan's numbers on a daily basis, I would, but it's not a resource that I have easy access to.

Admittedly, I have been trying to at least use a combination of zone rating and rate2, but laziness gets to me.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-11-20 11:19:01
51.   ninjavshippo
48
that should read BUT we're not sure..
2006-11-20 11:19:21
52.   regfairfield
47 A highly adjusted version of range factor.
2006-11-20 11:20:06
53.   Bob Timmermann
49
St. Louis and I have a complicated relationship. We're in therapy to sort out our issues.
2006-11-20 11:21:33
54.   xaphor
if he is insurance at only one position, it almost becomes like Jim and Ryan…

I (and likely D4P) thought you were talking about Thome and Howard there for a minute. Was Jim transfered to Chicago in the Office as well. :P

2006-11-20 11:21:52
55.   Midwest Blue
34 I just noticed. Thanks, Jon. In my dreams, I have the team budget at $115 mill, which would give us $30 mill to play with and half of that going to Zito. Another $15 mill to give to a talented outfielder or a combo outfielder / #3 pitcher for less.

I can dream.

2006-11-20 11:22:40
56.   StolenMonkey86
50 - Yeah, I go to baseballprospectus for Rate2, and ESPN for zone. Is there a one-stop shop for these defensive stats?
2006-11-20 11:23:25
57.   saltcreek
Does anyone know how Kemp and Loney are doing in the winter league? I have heard bad things but I cant find the stats.
2006-11-20 11:24:38
58.   blue22
Ryan Howard is MVP, with 20 of 32 first place votes.
2006-11-20 11:25:24
59.   Midwest Blue
Along those lines, does anyone know where Braz is at with his rehab? Will he be ready for the start of the season?
2006-11-20 11:26:19
60.   ToyCannon
Some info from Keith Laws latest column on how these type A signings are impacting the 2007 draft.
"Soriano, Catalanotto, and Speier are the only Type A free agents to sign so far, although Moises Alou may become the fourth shortly. However, we've seen several Type B's sign or come close to signing, so the 2007 Rule 4 draft's supplemental round (between rounds one and two) already has seven picks in it (going to Oakland, San Francisco, Washington, Detroit, Texas, Boston and two to Toronto). Since at this moment, the 2007 draft pool doesn't look particularly strong, especially not in comparison to the class right behind it, this means that teams without comp picks are watching the values of their second-round picks evaporate, making the first round even more important than usual."
2006-11-20 11:27:29
61.   Bob Timmermann
58
I dutifully watch ESPN News on my day off at 11 am and this is the thanks I get ... ;-)
2006-11-20 11:28:46
62.   blue22
61 - Dangit Bob. That's the 2nd time I've done that this offseason. Sorry.
2006-11-20 11:30:03
63.   bhsportsguy
Player Signings
Updated: November 20, 2006
Type A Free Agents

Frank Catalanotto, OF, 32 years old, 3 year deal for $13,000,000
Toronto receives first round pick from Texas and a sandwich pick

Justin Speier, RP, 33, 4 years $18,000,000
Toronto receives 1st round pick from Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and a sandwich pick.

Alfonso Soriano, OF/2B, 8 years, $136,000,000
Washington receives the Chicago Cubs second round pick (1st round protected) and a sandwich pick.

Type B Free Agents

Mark DeRosa, 2B, 31, 3 years, $13,000,000
Texas receives Chicago Cub's 3rd round draft choice (1st round pick protected, 2nd round pick to Nationals for Soriano)

Frank Thomas, DH, 38 2 years, $18,120,000
Oakland receives Toronto's 1st round pick.

The Giants could receive Cincy's 2nd round pick if they sign Mike Stanton and they can also get the Met's first round pick and a compensation pick if they sign Alou.

2006-11-20 11:30:24
64.   ToyCannon
52
Do you feel that defensive abilities change that much from year to year that you need the latest info instead of the cumulative average and scouting reports?
2006-11-20 11:30:31
65.   Bob Timmermann
62
It's all right. I won't be able to do it tomorrow since I will be driving to work when the AL announcement comes down. But I imagine that Bronx Banter will have that covered because of the Jeter involvement.

And at least one of my loyal readers is a big Phillies fan.

2006-11-20 11:34:04
66.   ToyCannon
Toronto has done very well for themselves. They lose a platoon outfielder on the wrong side of 30 and a decent setup pitcher and get 2 number ones and 2 sandwich picks. Sweet.

Still hoping that Boston signs Lugo. I think we might benefit from the Cubs signing Soriano in that it should take them out of the Lugo sweepstakes and if they had signed him, their 1st round pick was protected.

2006-11-20 11:43:33
67.   regfairfield
64 It's an interesting question that I don't know the answer to. Maybe they do, maybe they don't. Since I have next to no faith in scouting reports, I don't use them (plus you can't simply acquire an up to date scouting report on any player). And well, I don't own the Fielding Bible, so I can only use it when I get the numbers from other sources.
2006-11-20 11:44:06
68.   student of the game
Please be wrong:

The Dodgers are close to signing free-agent center fielder Juan Pierre

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6191380

2006-11-20 11:44:17
69.   Tangled Up in Blue
I dont know if this has been mentioned but Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Dodgers are close to signing Juan Pierre.
2006-11-20 11:44:42
70.   Tangled Up in Blue
11 seconds too late.
2006-11-20 11:46:16
71.   Connector
Hi everybody, just arrived.

I'm very happy Nomar is continuing through '08. To me, it's his inspiration, his "clutch"-ability that makes the deal worthwhile, his OPS notwithstanding.

A glaring deficiency in stats, in my eyes, is the lack of a "leadership" or an "inspiration" factor. A guy might put up the world's best numbers, but if he's a selfish jerkface, what have you gained by having him on your team?

BTW #8 and #9 - you refer to the Dreyfus Affair?

2006-11-20 11:46:42
72.   LAT
I was just talking to a friend who is a rabid Giants fan and believes the Giants are going to sign Juan Pierre. I told him that was a bad thing. When he asked why I said "cause the guys at DT say so." This did not seem to be a crediable enough source for him. So can someone tell me why Juan Pierre is not a good idea.
2006-11-20 11:51:22
73.   Daniel Zappala
72 He has no power, and his OBP has gone in the tank the past two years.
2006-11-20 11:53:54
74.   Jon Weisman
71 - You've gained the world's best numbers.
2006-11-20 11:54:07
75.   regfairfield
71 You gain however many runs his stats say he created for the team.
2006-11-20 11:56:20
76.   ToyCannon
72
His lack of basestealing ability creates alot of outs. Career of 325/116. Career OBP of 350 is totally dependant on BA and so the last two years he hasn't touched 331. His slug% has to be one of the worse in baseball. If he hit doubles and could steal 2nd with the precision of Lofton I'd be more impressed. What I see is a rabbit who has terrible baserunning skills, with zero power and is not known for playing a skillfull CF. I'd rather have Lofton back. JMO
2006-11-20 11:58:29
77.   bhsportsguy
The fallout of Drew opting out is Nomar's resigning and going after Juan Pierre to play center field.

The more you listened to Ned during the off-season, the more you were convinced that he was not going to Vero Beach with Loney, Kemp and LaRoche as key players for 2007. Thus, once Drew was gone, he needed to get at least one veteran bat back (Nomar) and another veteran CF (Pierre) to make sure that he did not have to place the team in the hands of those 3 players.

With Soriano gone, I don't know aside from signing a CF, what other position players the team will try for, I do see them going for a pitcher but after that, they will probably wait and see what happens.

2006-11-20 12:00:16
78.   bhsportsguy
76 Two things Pierre has over Lofton is his age and durability. Not sure you want 150 games plus of Juan Pierre but that is what you get every year.
2006-11-20 12:00:22
79.   Greg Brock
The Dodgers are not signing Juan Pierre
The Dodgers are not signing Juan Pierre
The Dodgers are not signing Juan Pierre

Please.

2006-11-20 12:00:34
80.   Midwest Blue
From RotoWorld:

Pierre could be one of the worst signings of the winter if his deal rivals the three-year, $30 million offer the Giants reportedly submitted. We're becoming more skeptical about that one. If the Dodgers sign Pierre, the Giants will probably change their focus to Dave Roberts. They're also pursuing Gary Matthews Jr., but he seems like a long shot for them. The Brewers also want Roberts.

2006-11-20 12:00:46
81.   StolenMonkey86
72 - Pierre's ISO Patience/power by year (OBP-BA/SLG-BA):

2000 - .043/.010
2001 - .051/.088
2002 - .045/.056
2003 - .056/.068
2004 - .048/.081
2005 - .050/.078
2006 - .038/.096

Basically a good year for him is a .750 OPS. That and for all his speed, his SB % is 74%.

2006-11-20 12:03:19
82.   regfairfield
71 Also, didn't Nomar get run out of Boston by the fans because he wasn't a leader or some similar reason? Why is he now a leader and an inspiration?
2006-11-20 12:03:36
83.   Bob Timmermann
71
BTW #8 and #9 - you refer to the Dreyfus Affair?

J'accuse!

2006-11-20 12:04:03
84.   Curtis Lowe
Why Lofton over Pierre? They seem like the same player to me except pieree is younger and plays 162 games.

76- You say his lack of basestealing ability and his lack of doubles.

His SB% was 74% and he hit 32 doubles in 2006. Though Lofton did have a better SB% he also had 26 less steals and 17 less doubles.

2006-11-20 12:05:23
85.   Disabled List
Juan Pierre has played in all 162 games for four straight seasons.

Last year, he walked 32 times in 750 plate appearances.

Oh. My. God.

2006-11-20 12:05:56
86.   Curtis Lowe
85- He also only struck out 38 times.
2006-11-20 12:07:50
87.   StolenMonkey86
nice, my stat professor definitely gave us a question out of the book for the take-home exam.

a question out of the book with the answer in the back

2006-11-20 12:09:18
88.   King of the Hobos
Hopefully Pierre really wants to continue to bat leadoff, as I doubt he will be able to do that wih Furcal and his salary on the team. Rosenthal was fairly unspecific in his report, so hopefully that indicates that this is just a rumor. I wouldn't mind Sabean reading it and deciding to bid far too much though.
2006-11-20 12:09:36
89.   Disabled List
86 - Maybe so, but he also made 532 outs, tops in the league.
2006-11-20 12:09:39
90.   blue22
84 - Why Lofton over Pierre? They seem like the same player to me...

There is this, amongst others:

Lofton - .272 eqa (2006)
Pierre - .249 eqa
Roberts - .281 eqa

2006-11-20 12:13:27
91.   StolenMonkey86
82 - A few things happened:

1) He got older
2) He got injured/humbled in 2004, 2005
3) The media is a lot nicer to him
4) He's younger than the GM now

And don't forget the whole thing about his defense at short and the calls to get A-Rod to the Bosox

2006-11-20 12:13:58
92.   StolenMonkey86
what's EQA again?
2006-11-20 12:14:00
93.   Curtis Lowe
Pierre was also a threat on the basepaths 236 times last year, Lofton only made it 186.
2006-11-20 12:15:12
94.   Robert Daeley
What's all this about Pierre not having any power? He's had 12 home runs in his 6-year career! ;)

On the other hand, he played in 162 games last year, had a fielding percentage of 1.000, and a Zone Rating of .911.

2006-11-20 12:15:18
95.   Greg Brock
87 But you're never going to learn if you look at the answer!

Stop laughing.

2006-11-20 12:15:31
96.   regfairfield
93 But he's not a threat, he gets thrown out 1/4th of the time. He might as well not steal in the first place.
2006-11-20 12:15:47
97.   StolenMonkey86
I'd rather have Repko than Pierre
2006-11-20 12:16:14
98.   blue22
92 - equivalent average. It's an overall offensive figure, combining several offensive stats (including stolen bases!), and then normalized so that .260 is "average".
2006-11-20 12:18:11
99.   Connector
82

Nomar's pleasant manner, his quiet professionalism and his clutch late inning OPS are what make him a leader and an inspiration.

He reminds me of Jerry West of the Lakers.
Jerry West was amazing to watch, too.

2006-11-20 12:18:57
100.   Curtis Lowe
97- I'd rather have Repko over Pierre as well.

I don't know why I defended him, I don't want to see him or Lofton in CF next year.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-11-20 12:20:04
101.   blue22
99 - He reminds me of Jerry West of the Lakers.

Isn't Jerry West one of the top-3 guards of all-time? I'd expect a bit more out of Nomar for that comparison to hold.

2006-11-20 12:24:06
102.   Robert Daeley
From Wikipedia:

"On May 9, 2006, Pierre robbed the San Francisco Giants' Barry Bonds of a career 714th home run by catching the ball as it topped the fence, which would have tied Bonds with Babe Ruth for second on the all-time list."

I'd say that alone recommends him. ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Pierre

2006-11-20 12:28:28
103.   Connector
101

He made only 4 errors last season at a NEW position, for example.

2006-11-20 12:29:14
104.   Andrew Shimmin
102- Hamulack beaned Bonds. Sure, it was very, very nice. So, very, very nice. . . I'm sorry; lost my train of thought.
2006-11-20 12:30:08
105.   EJM
Because I want to beat Greg Brock's post that he is probably already typing...

105. Greg Brock
Too bad the guy on second tagged up and scored because Juan Pierre's throw 6 hopped to the cutoff man.

Thats got to be close, right?

2006-11-20 12:32:05
106.   regfairfield
League average first baseman in 2006: .285/.362/.487
NL average first baseman in 2006: .290/.372/.507
Nomar in 2006: .303/.367/.505

Suddenly this signing doesn't seem as reasonable as before.

2006-11-20 12:32:25
107.   bigcpa
Career RC/27
Lofton 5.7
Pierre 4.6
Roberts 4.4

Career BB rate
Lofton 10.2%
Roberts 9.7%
Pierre 5.7%

Career SB success rate
Roberts 80%
Lofton 79%
Pierre 73%

Fielding Bible '03-05 rating
Lofton +1 (plays above avg)
Pierre -9
Roberts -10

Fielding Bible '03-05 Arm ranking
Lofton 21st of 32
Roberts 23rd
Pierre 30th

I guess you can't argue with this one...

Opening day age
Pierre 29
Roberts 34
Lofton 39

2006-11-20 12:33:18
108.   Greg Brock
105 Man, and I had this whole prep period to beat you to the punch!

I'm slipping.

2006-11-20 12:34:04
109.   Andrew Shimmin
If we get Pierre, does that mean Colletti has to acquire Francoeur, too, in order to have the all French surname outfield? I mean, in for a penny, in for a pound, right?
2006-11-20 12:36:19
110.   ToyCannon
107
Good stuff.
2006-11-20 12:36:28
111.   Greg Brock
109 I'd rather get Richie Charlemagne*

*Actual player may not exist

2006-11-20 12:38:54
112.   Andrew Shimmin
The Pavilions could be renamed the Cheese-Eating Surrender Monkey Houses.
2006-11-20 12:39:25
113.   Jon Weisman
106 - Why not? What does the average first baseman get paid?
2006-11-20 12:39:26
114.   StolenMonkey86
109 - Eric Gagne will play right field.
2006-11-20 12:39:45
115.   bigcpa
110 I confess- I called in sick today. The Fielding Bible data was a dead giveaway right?
2006-11-20 12:40:08
116.   katysdad
106 I posted this quote from Colletti earlier: A player "may be average, but they look above average to me. They're definitely closer to positive than negative. You try to make average your minimum, because average is pretty darned good."

So if Nomar is indeed average, as your numbers seem to indicate, he is really above average in Ned's eyes. Make of that what you will.

2006-11-20 12:42:27
117.   Jon Weisman
I like the idea of average being the minimum.
2006-11-20 12:43:45
118.   Greg Brock
How can average be "pretty darned good?"

I always thought average was...you know...average and stuff.

I'm so confused.

2006-11-20 12:44:51
119.   ToyCannon
115
No, being a CPA I figured you had lacky's doing the money work while you were working on the important stuff.
2006-11-20 12:44:51
120.   Andrew Shimmin
118- It's not a linear distribution of talent. There's a whole lot of replacement level detritus, and a few superstars. Average really is pretty good.
2006-11-20 12:45:27
121.   Jon Weisman
I think it would be a dreadful mistake to try to read too much into that quote for anything but entertainment purposes.
2006-11-20 12:45:55
122.   bigcpa
Cool observation from Dave Studeman at THT...
"In 2004, players who weren't yet eligible for arbitration... contributed 1,720 Win Shares to their teams. In 2006, that same classification of players contributed 2,669 Win Shares. That's 1,000 more Win Shares from players making the minimum... Combine more production from inexpensive players with more money to spend, and you have teams with blow-out free agent budgets."
2006-11-20 12:46:47
123.   bhsportsguy
Really off topic but too good to resist.

From CNN.com

News Corp. says it has canceled publication of the O.J. Simpson book and television special "If I Did It," The Associated Press reports.

2006-11-20 12:46:50
124.   regfairfield
113 It's hard to say, the guys around Garciaparra either: signed contracts before they dropped to average production, or have no contract.

The players closest to league average were Richie Sexson, Lyle Overbay, Adrian Gonzalez, and Todd Helton. So maybe league average is worth close to nine million, but it's hard to say.

116 I really hate when Ned says things like that because that's not true. If anything, average is closer to bad than good because average includes all the non starters as well.

2006-11-20 12:47:09
125.   Greg Brock
Oh, it's for entertainment purposes only, of course. It just struck me as funny. Average=better than average. I like it!

You know, I really like blue. The best part about blue is how red it is...

2006-11-20 12:47:17
126.   DodgerJoe
This talk of Juan Pierre has got me concerned. I am hiolding out hope that somehow Andruw Jones or Vernon Wells is playing CF next year. Is that unreasonable, with Brad Penny as part of a package? Obviously Schmidt or Zito signs to fill that void.
2006-11-20 12:48:03
127.   underdog
9 (delayed) J'accuse! But of course I was referencing Zola (but forgot to add some french around it to make that clear.) Or maybe I was referencing the Peter Lefcourt baseball novel that references it.
2006-11-20 12:48:51
128.   ToyCannon
106
I thought your info showed that the Nomar contract was reasonable not the other way around. Still think Loney could do 75% of that production at 1/20 the cost which in my world makes the signing a mistake but then I was part of the group who thought Choi could do the same and we no how that turned out so while I still post my opinions I'm not married to them.
2006-11-20 12:50:25
129.   blue22
126 - Andruw has full no-trade protection, and doesn't want to leave Atlanta (well, at least not until someone pays him 9 figures to do so).

Wells seems staying put too, since the Frank Thomas signing infers a "2007 or bust" strategy for Toronto.

2006-11-20 12:51:57
130.   ToyCannon
I'm betting on bust until they find a decent middle infield.
2006-11-20 12:54:41
131.   Andrew Shimmin
Hmm. So, regfairfield and I said the same thing, but decided it meant something different. I'm declaring him a pessimist and claiming victory.
2006-11-20 12:55:02
132.   regfairfield
The Mark DeRosa signing was hihgly critied, but here's how his career (not his fluke 2006) numbers stack up to the average second baseman:

League average: .276/.334/.408
DeRosa in his career: .273/.331/.404

Now other factors like defense play into this, but if DeRosa lives up to his career numbers, he's pretty much an average second baseman for far less than we paid for an average first baseman.

2006-11-20 12:55:38
133.   dsfan
Perhaps this bullet train passed my station long ago, but could someone please elaborate on Gurnick's passing reference that Loney has "chronic" knee problems?
2006-11-20 12:56:53
134.   dsfan
37 --

I share your concerns about Rate2.

Last year, Aybar had a terrible defensive game across the board, directly yielding a defeat -- and his Rate2 went up.

2006-11-20 12:57:15
135.   ToyCannon
133
It was the 1st any of us had ever heard of it.
2006-11-20 12:57:31
136.   Uncle Miltie
The Dodgers are close to signing free-agent center fielder Juan Pierre...Pierre is believed to be seeking $9M a season and his contract could be for as long as five years.
Have you ever seen a grown man cry over a possible free agent signing...
2006-11-20 12:58:24
137.   ToyCannon
From Keith Law who rated Nomar as the 22nd best FA on the market:
"Garciaparra demonstrated in 2006 that he can still produce something offensively, but the question of whether he can stay healthy enough to justify his salary is still an open one. Nomar has a short, punchy swing, almost attacking the ball up in the zone; he's still primarily a fastball hitter, and still swings early in the count. His primary weakness, as always, is the breaking ball away, particularly one breaking away from him -- a pitch he'll generally chase.

The Dodgers made him a first baseman to try to keep him on the field, and it was a moderate success. He appeared in more games in 2006 than he had in either of the two previous seasons, but he missed time this year due to a sore knee, a strained oblique muscle, a strained rib muscle, and a torn quad muscle that more or less ended his season. The other problem with Nomar is that he's rough defensively at first base; his range, never great at short, was very limited this year, perhaps the cumulative effect of many of his injuries. "

2006-11-20 13:00:34
138.   ToyCannon
From Keith Law who has Pierre ranked 40th in his FA ranking.
"One of the most overrated players of the 2000s, Pierre has precisely one above-average baseball ability: He can run. He has no power, has poor fielding instincts, has a below-average arm, and is not patient at the plate. While he has a .303 career batting average, his actual hitting ability is average at best. He has an erratic swing path, one that often puts him under balls he should be centering and trying to hit on the ground or as line drives. In center, he makes up for those poor instincts with his raw speed, but is no more than an average fielder; when his speed begins to decline, his bat won't support a move to left field. He's a No. 8 or 9 hitter who has been miscast as a leadoff hitter because he can fly, but he'll likely be paid to lead off by a club that values speed over the ability to get on base."
2006-11-20 13:04:28
139.   Jon Weisman
Details on Garciaparra's contract in update above. Garciaparra's 2007 salary is $7.5 million.

He gets "a $2.5 million signing bonus, which is deferred until 2009 and 2010, and salaries of $7.5 million next season and $8.5 million in 2008. He would get an additional $250,000 each year for 500 plate appearances."

2006-11-20 13:05:04
140.   Disabled List
Signing Pierre to a 5 year deal at $9 million a year is the kind of move that can sink a franchise. I'm serious. Stars who produce deserve their huge contracts, but mediocrities with big payroll-eating salaries are crippling to a team.

Ned on the "dead to me" list if this actually occurs.

2006-11-20 13:09:58
141.   bigcpa
I've added Matthews Jr. to this list since he might be our only hope from hearing "a rabbit is loose" 250 times a year.

Career RC/27
Lofton 5.7
Matthews 5.0 (5.9 last 3 yrs)
Pierre 4.6
Roberts 4.4

Career BB rate
Lofton 10.2%
Matthews 9.8%
Roberts 9.7%
Pierre 5.7%

Career SB success rate
Roberts 80%
Lofton 79%
Pierre 73%
Matthews 69%

Fielding Bible '03-05 rating (plays made)
Matthews +19 (4th in MLB)
Lofton +1
Pierre -9
Roberts -10

Fielding Bible '03-05 Arm ranking
Matthews 15th of 32
Lofton 21st
Roberts 23rd
Pierre 30th

Opening day age
Pierre 29
Matthews 32
Roberts 34
Lofton 39

2006-11-20 13:14:55
142.   rockmrete
I would like to see Ned sit this FA year out with the exception of bringing in both Zito, and Schimdt( I mean, why not?,we're looking at a bat, and a SP). Go with the youngters in the outfield Repko, Werth, Eithier, Kemp. Next year go after A.Jones, or Wells.
2006-11-20 13:15:39
143.   Daniel Zappala
If we have to get one of those four, then Matthews, pretty please.
2006-11-20 13:15:59
144.   fan 4 40 plus
Gurnick is echoing the Pierre rumor...
2006-11-20 13:20:01
145.   Bob Timmermann
I hear that MLB's new logo will feature a silhouette of Juan Pierre.
2006-11-20 13:20:14
146.   Greg Brock
Ned Colletti is not signing Juan Pierre.

He...he...he just can't. He can't!

2006-11-20 13:20:58
147.   KG16
140 - if the Dodgers were a $60m payroll team, I'd agree with you whole heartedly. But they're a big market team with a massive payroll (or at least, they should be), so it's not really crippling.

Given what Pierre is expected to do (I'm assuming lead off or batting second), his batting average and on base percentage look pretty good. Plus he's shown an ability to get extra base hits, which means it's easier to score him - and given the Dodgers apparent lack of homerun power, that's a very good thing.

2006-11-20 13:22:45
148.   das411
65 - Hi Bob!

132 - But they also just signed the best 2B on the market and are going to stick him in CF!!

2006-11-20 13:31:29
149.   regfairfield
I did make a mistake with DeRosa, I compared him to the league average second baseman while comparing Nomar to the average NL first baseman, so that comparison is slightly innaccurate.

However, Nomar's propensity for injuries might more than makes up the difference.

2006-11-20 13:31:59
150.   Uncle Miltie
[his] on base percentage look[s] pretty good. Plus he's shown an ability to get extra base hits
.330 is a good OBP? Pierre had 48 extra base hits last year, which isn't too bad, but he's usually in the 30's (and that's in 700+ plate appearances!) Is there really anything that Pierre can do that Lofton can't, besides play 162 games?
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-11-20 13:32:12
151.   saltcreek
Pierre makes no sense to me. He doesnt have enough power or obp to be a good #2 hitter, and we already have furcal as a table setter.
2006-11-20 13:32:21
152.   Jon Weisman
Did Loney miss any time in 2006 with injury?

The past injury worry with Loney, as far as I knew, was in his wrist, wasn't it?

2006-11-20 13:33:09
153.   Bob Timmermann
In Juan Pierre's career, he's batted leadoff in 899 games and in the #2 slot just 43 times. He has batted in all the slots in the lineup, although I would assume most of those were the result of double switches.

But no one has addressed the problem of Juan Pierre's tiny head. I don't trust anyone with a hat size under 7.

2006-11-20 13:35:01
154.   regfairfield
153 We need to trade for Kevin Mench.
2006-11-20 13:37:49
155.   Uncle Miltie
But no one has addressed the problem of Juan Pierre's tiny head. I don't trust anyone with a hat size under 7.
His hat size is under 7? Wow. That must be why he was caught stealing 20 times last year.
2006-11-20 13:38:48
156.   natepurcell
come on Ned, juan pierre!??! COME ON!!!!
2006-11-20 13:40:56
157.   Greg Brock
153 We knew the tiny head would be addressed at some point.
2006-11-20 13:41:10
158.   Bob Timmermann
A 2003 piece in the Village Voice by Paul Lukas about Juan Pierre and how he wears his uniform correctly:

http://tinyurl.com/ykp9hw

The end of the story:

Alas, his career has so far been spent with two of the game's most aesthetically challenged franchises—the Marlins and the Rockies—where his traditionalist look has largely gone to waste. Quick, trade this guy to the Dodgers, Red Sox, or Tigers, where his good taste can finally be put to good use.

(Emphasis mine)

2006-11-20 13:44:52
159.   Disabled List
147 Given what Pierre is expected to do (I'm assuming lead off or batting second), his batting average and on base percentage look pretty good. Plus he's shown an ability to get extra base hits, which means it's easier to score him - and given the Dodgers apparent lack of homerun power, that's a very good thing.

Uncle Miltie already responded to this in 150, but I need to echo it. A .330 OBP is awful for a leadoff or #2 hitter. Pierre has no plate discipline at all, and his power numbers are atrocious. He has a career SLG of .377.

Giving him a long-term contract will be an albatross around the Dodgers' neck for the rest of this decade.

2006-11-20 13:45:09
160.   dsfan
I hope the press writes more about Loney's knee situation. At such a young aqe, if his knee problem is "chronic" that's kind of scary. As it is, I suspect his footspeed is below average.
2006-11-20 13:46:13
161.   natepurcell
160

by "press", do you mean gurnicks propaganda? seriously, there are tons of devoted dodger prospect followers and none of us have heard about loney having a chronic knee injury.

2006-11-20 13:49:06
162.   regfairfield
Some more interesting Nomar notes.

No player eligible for free agency except Nick Johnson that out produced Nomar will make less than he will.

Conversly:

No player eligible for free agency except Richie Sexson that Nomar outproduced will make more than him.

So I guess that makes his contract just right.

2006-11-20 13:49:08
163.   Uncle Miltie
Good in the clubhouse? Check
Fast? Check
Wears his hat under his helmet? Check
Wears stirrups? Check
Is old school? Check
Plays the game the "right way"? Check

What more can you ask for?

2006-11-20 13:53:49
164.   natepurcell
ar least pierre isnt a type A free agent.

oh god, im already trying to justify the unjustifiable.

2006-11-20 13:54:07
165.   dsfan
Pierre will be grossly overpaid by somebody. If it's the Dodgers, they will get lambasted -- and for good reason.

Disclaimers aside, some potential tiny, perhaps microscopic positives:

Would his low-power, line-drive approach be more effective in the larger NL West venues than cozy Wrigley? This is totally a guess, but I figure that Wrigley would be a terrible place for Pierre's hitting, because OFs seemingly would be more able to snatch those liners and the gaps are relatively small.

His durability is impressive. A large body of anectdotal accounts make it safe to assume his work ethic is exceptionally good.

He's not terribly old.

Some believe that catching is becoming more scarce. Theoretically, that could accentuate a base-stealer's talents.

Just trying to find some potential positives relating to an inflated contract.

2006-11-20 13:54:54
166.   Bob Timmermann
there are tons of devoted dodger prospect followers

Seriously, Nate, mix in a salad some time.

2006-11-20 14:01:54
167.   bigcpa
Pierre BABIP
00-02 Col .329
03-06 Fla/Chi .315

Both of Pierre's standout seasons (01/04) came via a .341 BABIP. The 2001 season was Coors inflated which boosts BABIP by 50 points per THT. So that leaves us with 2004 and Pierre's LD and GB rates that year were identical to 2006.

So you're getting a very strong baseline of .300/.330/.380 and praying for bad opposing defense. Oh and praying he doesn't attempt sb's either. :)

2006-11-20 14:11:13
168.   GIDP
Juan Pierre rolls balls down the foul lines before games, in case he has to bunt. There's no stat for that.
2006-11-20 14:12:49
169.   Xeifrank
It's ironic that what some people think is one of Pierre's strong points, his durability is actually not a strong point when you consider you are getting 750 plate appearances of below par output. Consider each Pierre plate appearance to be a body blow. One years worth would be staggering, but five years worth would be a knockout punch. vr, Xei
2006-11-20 14:14:19
170.   Steve
It's like Russian Roulette, but with bullets in all the chambers. Whoever picks up the gun loses.
2006-11-20 14:15:29
171.   gibsonhobbs88
I am generally pleased that Nomar is staying in that he wants to play here and seems receptive to playing not just 1b but maybe 3b as well so Loney can get some time and ab at 1B. Two year contract at less than 10 mil per year is acceptable to me given the inflated nature of this year's "thin in amount of talent" market. I worry that Ned's ego at wanting to steal "Pierre" under his former boss's nose blinds him to the fact that he will saddle us with another overblown 5 year "Dreifort like contract". I much rather have Sarge's son myself if you are going to pay for a CF, better fielding instincts, better arm, more power than Pierre. JMO
2006-11-20 14:19:29
172.   FirstMohican
Please, please let Ned be driving the price up for SF. Pierre for 9M x 5 is unimaginable. It's something I would tell a friend as a joke.
2006-11-20 14:20:09
173.   Jon Weisman
I get the feeling that Pierre is just so popular that people would rather have Julio Lugo in center field.
2006-11-20 14:21:12
174.   gibsonhobbs88
The real issue with the team needs to be SP. Are they going to make a play for Zito or Schmidt or that other Japanese pitcher named Igawa? Zito unfortunately is represented by "Bealzabub (sp?) Boras" where we will get saddled with a contract that is sure to bind and strangle us by year 3. Remember Dreifort, K. Brown!! Schmidt would be the better approach at 2-3 years, but I've heard he may go close to home in Seattle.
2006-11-20 14:24:25
175.   Big Game
With the Mets signing Alou does that mean The Milledge would become available? What do you all think it would take?
2006-11-20 14:24:49
176.   natepurcell
173

i would.

2006-11-20 14:26:49
177.   Greg Brock
173 In a heartbeat.

Heck, I bet even Steve would!

{Ducks and runs}

2006-11-20 14:26:50
178.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
NoPierreNoPierreNoPierreNoPierreNoWhammysNoPierreNoPierre
2006-11-20 14:26:53
179.   natepurcell
175

most of us like a penny for heilman+ milledge deal but i dont think the mets would do that.

2006-11-20 14:28:00
180.   Daniel Zappala
173 You're stealing my idea. I demand attribution.
2006-11-20 14:29:33
181.   Steve
Only if he was accompanied to centerfield by ticker tape and a huge brass band.

The list of people who I would rather have inhabit centerfield than Juan Pierre runs 29,852,021 people long, includes Senator Jim Bunning and the old Domino's Pizza mascot. If Juan Pierre paid me $45 million to watch him pay centerfield, it might bump him up 300 spots on the list.

2006-11-20 14:29:45
182.   Uncle Miltie
173- yes I would. I'd also rather have Jeff Kent on the team than Pierre.
2006-11-20 14:30:00
183.   Jon Weisman
Did I? I'm sorry.

J'attribute! It was Daniel's idea.

2006-11-20 14:30:16
184.   Steve
I would empty our farm system and raze Vero Beach to the ground to trade for Vernon Wells right now.
2006-11-20 14:30:37
185.   Greg Brock
181 The Noid?
2006-11-20 14:30:57
186.   Big Game
179. I would do Penny for Milledge straight up if it meant not signing Pierre.
2006-11-20 14:31:33
187.   Johnson
173 I think I'd rather have a blancmange in center field. And we all know about blancmanges - they don't care about baseball, all they want is to win Wimbledon.
2006-11-20 14:36:13
188.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
With the looming threat of a Pierre signing, we all feel like this seal:
http://tinyurl.com/ymte7v
2006-11-20 14:37:24
189.   Robert Daeley
173 Juan Pierre is the anti-JD Drew.

1. 2006 line of 292/330/338 (versus 283/393/498).

2. BB/SO: 32/38 in 699 AB (versus 89/106 in 494).

3. Defensively suspect according to some.

4. Plays every day... because he can. Whether this is a good thing is apparently debatable -- see 169.

2006-11-20 14:40:12
190.   MJW101
The signing of Nomar, assuming a $100 million budget, leaves about $18.5 million for a CF and a SP in 2007.

If we sign Schmidt for $14-16 million it does not leave a lot of $$$$ for a CF unless the budget goes considerably above $100 million.

2006-11-20 14:41:31
191.   Jon Weisman
I would bet the Dodger budget is over $100 million. I'm not guaranteeing - that's just how I'd bet.
2006-11-20 14:42:05
192.   Big Game
hypothetical game situation from next year (assuming Maddux is re-signed and Pierre is signed):

The Dodgers have runners on 2nd and 3rd with two outs and Greg Maddux is up. If you're the opposing manager, do you walk Maddux to get to Pierre?

2006-11-20 14:43:36
193.   Bob Timmermann
192

No, no manager would do that unless Juan Pierre was playing with a broken leg.

2006-11-20 14:45:29
194.   underdog
The real question is, what is Juan Pierre's scrappiness factor?
2006-11-20 14:46:52
195.   trainwreck
Pierre close to signing is listen on Dodgers.com. I just threw up a little in my mouth.
2006-11-20 14:47:06
196.   trainwreck
*listed
2006-11-20 14:47:37
197.   dsfan
Nate,

I am confused about your comment about Gurnick and propaganda. I thought Gurnick worked for MLB and by extension the Dodgers. Isn't reasonable to assume that if he's applying any spin, it would favor the Dodgers? Seems farfetched that he would just fabricate something about Loney having a "chronic" knee problem. Given the dubious track record of the Dodgers' medical and training staff, it wouldn't be surprising that Loney has a knee issue that went under the radar.

2006-11-20 14:48:30
198.   regfairfield
197 It seems like the same, "Joel Guzman isn't that great" stuff that went on earlier in the year.
2006-11-20 14:49:24
199.   dsfan
69 I see your point on how an unproductive player's durability can work against a team. But durability, on its own, is a positive.
2006-11-20 14:50:26
200.   Jon Weisman
Vomit references on DT are on the verge of becoming Thank You for Not #11. I just don't see anything to be gained from them.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-11-20 14:50:39
201.   trainwreck
197
Yeah, it seems to me they are just giving stuff to the fans so that we think ok, it is fine to trade Loney he has knee problems.
2006-11-20 14:51:49
202.   Steve
Another positive: Josh Rawitch already has his spin written.

Juan Pierre is the eighth best lefthanded centerfielder in the National League

2006-11-20 14:52:05
203.   Greg Brock
Watching this Pierre thing is like watching your wife in labor.

Except what is being birthed is a monster.
And it's not yours
I'm not sure about this comparison, because I'm not married.

Wait, what were we talking about again?

2006-11-20 14:54:07
204.   50 years a Dodger Fan
Juan Pierre is changing his name to Julio Lugo. Is it possible Lugo for centerfield would be a better signing? Can't believe I just wrote that...
2006-11-20 14:54:10
205.   natepurcell
Wait, what were we talking about again?

how terrible juan pierre is.

2006-11-20 14:54:16
206.   trainwreck
There was no player I wanted us to stay away from more than Juan Pierre and we may have given him 5 years! 1 is too many for me.
2006-11-20 14:54:39
207.   Uncle Miltie
He also has the 30th strongest arm among all starting center fielders in baseball.

203- kind of like Jim Carey watching his wife give birth in Me, Myself and Irene?

2006-11-20 14:54:45
208.   trainwreck
204
It is fact! lol
2006-11-20 14:56:17
209.   bhsportsguy
192 Actually, this is one of those situations that Juan historically does well in.

Since 2003, he is 21-36 with the bases loaded with 45 RBI. Lifetime he is .455/.467/.618

It probably has a lot to do with his ability to put balls in play, his speed and how the defense plays him during those at bats.

2006-11-20 14:56:45
210.   EJM
In all of this statistical bashing of Juan Pierre, everyone is leaving off the single most important facet of his game....he wears his size 7 1/4 hat just a liiiittle bit crooked. Done deal, 6 years $72 million, and a clause that says all Dodgers must do the same.
2006-11-20 14:57:09
211.   overkill94
Slightly off-topic, but whoever bagged on the Blue Jays' middle infield has deeply offended me considering one of them is a friend of mine (Aaron Hill). Let it be known that I'll be sending him a copy of your comment and your home address for him to use however he pleases ;)
2006-11-20 14:58:41
212.   WellsforKemp
Dare I say with thoughts of Pierre in CF. Soriano looks dame good even for 17 mill. and even into his near 40's. I had a feeling signing him would be a huge blessing in disguise with Ned now feeling forced to make something happen on the FA market:(
2006-11-20 14:59:08
213.   natepurcell
211

aaron hill is the decent one. russ adams is the horrible one

2006-11-20 14:59:35
214.   GIDP
For fun, Pierre's career stats at Dodger Stadium:
139AB, .281, .333, .331
2006-11-20 15:00:43
215.   Robert Daeley
So let's see. This is apparently Let's Break Suggestion #6 day on DT, whether it's how Juan Pierre will lay waste to the LA Basin like Mechagodzilla, killing millions, or how Ken Gurnick is a skilled propagandist on par with the best the Soviets could offer, prepping fans for the imminent trade of James Loney (conveniently ignoring how if the Dodgers wanted to trade Loney, they wouldn't publicize alleged chronic knee issues). But rather than fight hyperbole with hyperbole, I will defer and wait till tomorrow. :D
2006-11-20 15:04:14
216.   WellsforKemp
seriously, I feel like if its true. Ned has put himself into a class only known as the Littlefield/Bowden club...............am I in a bad dream......
2006-11-20 15:05:52
217.   trainwreck
I miss Kenny Lofton.
2006-11-20 15:08:20
218.   bhsportsguy
If we can look at this objectively for a second.

Right now the Dodgers have under contract only one player who has played more than one year in majors who has played in the outfield, Marlon Anderson and he has never played a full season in the outfield.

The other Dodgers under contract are Werth, rehabbing and has not shown that he has recovered from Spring 2005 injury, Repko, who has had injury issues also and Ethier who is coming off a successful rookie season.

Outside of Ethier, there are no regular outfielders apparent and there is really only one, Matt Kemp, in the system and while he will compete in spring training for a job, I think the Dodgers would like to see him play at least a few months in AAA, in the Dominican, he is stll striking out over 20% of the time.

I don't think there is any way Ned goes to Vero with the current allotment of outfielders and there is not a lot to choose from in free agency.

Juan Pierre would not be my first choice and I am more worried about length of the contract than the amount of money to be paid. But this is also a time when teams are beginning to feel the crunch because with Ramirez's reupping with the Cubs and now Soriano signing with the Cubs, the number of big bats in down to Carlos Lee and hard to believe J.D. Drew who may both be looking at 50 million dollar deals before they are done.

2006-11-20 15:11:18
219.   trainwreck
I have no problem with the idea of signing an outfielder, but I rather it would have been more of a stop gap such as Lofton or Roberts.
2006-11-20 15:14:24
220.   StolenMonkey86
I would have no problem with Pierre if he could outproduce Lofton and sign at most a 2 year deal, for $8 million
2006-11-20 15:16:59
221.   StolenMonkey86
It's Ryan Church's fault that Ned Colletti is considering Juan Pierre.
2006-11-20 15:19:08
222.   Gagne55
210 6 years 72 mil? You serious?
2006-11-20 15:22:20
223.   trainwreck
That was a joke, unless EJM has great sources.
2006-11-20 15:22:42
224.   still bevens
222 This is how rumors get started
2006-11-20 15:23:23
225.   jasonungar05
I know it's only Nov 20, but at least we are almost as good as we were last year.

Now all we need is a Power Hitting lefty for our 3, 4, 5 spot, a starter and a closer and then we can get to making our team better for 2007.

2006-11-20 15:26:06
226.   WellsforKemp
I have no problem with the idea of signing an outfielder, but I rather it would have been more of a stop gap such as Lofton or Roberts.

exactly, how can anyone on the Doders front office think Pierre is a better option than those two. money aside

2006-11-20 15:29:38
227.   StolenMonkey86
226 - Ned doesn't like strikeouts?
2006-11-20 15:29:58
228.   Jon Weisman
I'm going with the notion that the Dodgers are trying to get the Giants to go all in on Pierre.
2006-11-20 15:30:27
229.   Jon Weisman
"Aforementioned" notion, I should say. J'attribute!
2006-11-20 15:30:33
230.   Bob Timmermann
I believe Juan Pierre wears a hat much smaller than 7 1/4.
2006-11-20 15:31:18
231.   StolenMonkey86
228 - Yay, Jon made us feel happy.
2006-11-20 15:32:25
232.   bhsportsguy
226 I think Ned and the Dodgers put a lot of value, especially with the makeup of young players and creaky veterans (Kent and Nomar) to have someone who plays everyday. Both Roberts and Lofton, Roberts, injury history and Lofton, age, have issues that could prevent that.

With Furcal and Lofton, Ned could pencil both in everyday and not worry about it.

Again, I am not condoning the deal but I do think track record is important and I think teams in general without some other agenda are not going to pencil in young players to start.

2006-11-20 15:34:04
233.   trainwreck
228
I wish that were true, but I doubt they would write an article on the webpage about him if that were the case.
2006-11-20 15:35:00
234.   Marty
Weren't we all saying the exact same things about Pierre this time last year?
2006-11-20 15:36:23
235.   Xeifrank
69 I see your point on how an unproductive player's durability can work against a team. But durability, on its own, is a positive.

Yes, durability without the unproductive part is a positive. vr, Xei

2006-11-20 15:38:33
236.   Uncle Miltie
Ned: I hear the Giants are after Juan.
Pierre's agent: Yes they are.
Ned: Can you make my offer for Pierre public?
Agent: Sure...
Ned: 4 years/$32 million
Agent: You've got yourself a deal!
Ned: Uh...wha..?
2006-11-20 15:39:44
237.   trainwreck
The specter of Juan Pierre haunts DT like a ghost of Christmas past.
2006-11-20 15:44:05
238.   drewjensen
Looks like a done deal - 5/45 according to ESPN (pending physical, that is)
2006-11-20 15:44:12
239.   Jon Weisman
233 - I'm not saying it's true either, but we all must remain aware of the distinction between expressing interest in a player and actually signing him.

Over the years (yes, it's been that long), Dodgers.com has mentioned players as potential targets that were ultimately not signed.

2006-11-20 15:44:17
240.   Curtis Lowe
ESPN is reporting 5yrs for 44-45 mil

Discuss

2006-11-20 15:44:41
241.   Greg Brock
Well, ESPN.com says the deal has been reached for 5/45.

WORST. SIGNING. EVER.

Worse than Brown (at least he was good).

2006-11-20 15:44:58
242.   trainwreck
238
:(
2006-11-20 15:44:59
243.   still bevens
233 Im sure the GMs use Gammons and Rosenthal to plant BS offers all the time. It works for all parties. GMs get to plant disinformation and the journalists get 'news' to post on their websites.
2006-11-20 15:45:12
244.   adraymond
Gurnick's article ends by saying going after Pierre would seem to indicate that the Dodgers do not feel Kemp is ready to play center everyday. I wonder how they feel about right.
2006-11-20 15:46:14
245.   WellsforKemp
I hate my life right now!
2006-11-20 15:47:12
246.   Bob Timmermann
Updated list:

http://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/317999.html

2006-11-20 15:48:35
247.   Johnson
Pending a physical...anybody got Jeff Gillooly's phone number?
2006-11-20 15:49:08
248.   Greg Brock
How can anybody pay this guy nine million dolaars for 5 years?

Is this GM guy insane?

This is so ridiculously stupid.

2006-11-20 15:50:04
249.   dsfan
I don't think Roberts was a stopgap option, unless you consider a three-year guarantee as "stopgap." My guess is Roberts will get three years, $12 million to $14 million. Now if you're saying that's less egregious than Pierrez at 5/45, I'm in.
I probably would have flipped Lofton a one-year deal.
2006-11-20 15:50:37
250.   Uncle Miltie
Somebody needs to pull a Tonya Harding now!
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2006-11-20 15:51:13
251.   drewjensen
Thus ends the Matt Kemp era as Dodger Centerfielder of the Future. I can only assume that Ned didn't see him being able to handle that role, short or long term. He always seemed more of a right fielder anyway because of his size.

But then what about Loney? Doesn't it start to look like one of Kemp/Loney/Laroche is officially "blocked" now?

2006-11-20 15:51:49
252.   ssjames
248 If we are just going to throw money away, we should have at least done it for Soriano instead, or J.D. Drew. Seriously, I hope this information is wrong. If not, I have completely lost faith in our GM.

What do we do with Pierre in 3 years, when we actually have good players coming up who will take his position away? Does he become a $9 Million/year 4th outfielder.

WHY?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?

2006-11-20 15:51:53
253.   trainwreck
I think if you offered Roberts good money for two years he would do it. I love what Ned did with Furcal and I wish he would stick to that gameplan of offering a ton of money on shorter deals.
2006-11-20 15:52:06
254.   StolenMonkey86
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGH!

Please tell me they intend to trade him very very soon.

2006-11-20 15:52:33
255.   Xeifrank
5 years is unbelievable for so many reasons. I am in Pierre denial. This can't be true, this can't be true. Tap your shoes together and repeat after me, there's no place like home, there's no place like home!

The Dodgers have met their Juan Pierre.

vr, Xei

2006-11-20 15:53:05
256.   Johnson
I suppose it would be overly optimistic to hope that Colletti signed Pierre just to flip him to Sabean for Matt Cain? Yeah, thought so.
2006-11-20 15:53:24
257.   GMac In The 909
I don't know why everyone is being so negative.

This is what we have to look forward to (assuming the Dodgers end next October with a win):

http://tinyurl.com/y4kkbg

2006-11-20 15:54:36
258.   Uncle Miltie
I'm more shaken than Plaschke after the Lo Duca trade
2006-11-20 15:56:05
259.   trainwreck
257
He makes K-Fed look like Rakim.
2006-11-20 15:56:20
260.   Greg Brock
Seriously, this is just beyond words. What in the world is The Mustache seeing here that compels him to give 5/45 to JUAN PIERRE

This can't be real. It just can't be.
la la la la la la la

2006-11-20 15:56:26
261.   regfairfield
On the bright side, I don't think this blocks Matt Kemp. He already looks fairly immobile out in center and he's not going to get any more nimble as he gets older. I think Colletti views him as the right fielder of the future at this point.
2006-11-20 15:59:20
262.   D4P
Can't talk now. JUAN PIERRE! AHHHHHH!!!!!
2006-11-20 16:00:41
263.   trainwreck
I hope Jon's write up can somehow make me feel better. In a moment of crisis the wise words of Weisman is my cowbell.
2006-11-20 16:01:59
264.   gibsonhobbs88
Poor little Pierre, getting roasted and salted on the DT skewer. I'm upset myself only at the fact that Ned did break his no long term contracts beyond 3 years approach for a 2nd tier free agent at best. Grady is going to need the 80's Cardinal type offense, McGee, Ozzie and Coleman with lots of basestealing and gap hitters. Also, we have Venus De Milo in CF. We might have several occasions of opposing players scoring on a deep flyout from 2nd base this year.
2006-11-20 16:02:50
265.   Greg Brock
The Philosopher King will now using his calming, well reasoned writing to put things in perspective.

And I will continue screaming at my television.

2006-11-20 16:04:18
266.   Daniel Zappala
This only makes sense if you value batting average. As the ESPN report says:

"Pierre, 29, is a .303 hitter over seven seasons with Colorado, Florida and the Chicago Cubs. He led the National League with 204 hits in 2006."

2006-11-20 16:04:27
267.   bhsportsguy
Okay, first off, in today's market, 9 million a year for a starting free agent outfielder is probably going to be the average price (Soriano, Lee, Drew and probably Matthews will make more than that, Alou could make more for less years).

Second, what are our long term prospects for outfielders in the Dodger system after Kemp, anyone, anyone. Without a player shifting positions like Loney, the Dodgers have some prospects in the infield and on the mound but no real outfield prospects even when you go down to Rookie ball.

Or this all could be prelude to a big trade involving some prospects for a big bat.

We shall see.

2006-11-20 16:04:32
268.   overkill94
I know we needed a center fielder and all but Juan Pierre? Come on...

Why didn't we just sign Lofton again and platoon him with Repko for a fraction of the price and much less of the length?

On the bright side, Pierre's on one of my fantasy teams so I'll have another Dodger to root for along with Martin, Loney (hopefully), Betemit, Broxton, Penny, and maybe Laroche.

2006-11-20 16:04:51
269.   WellsforKemp
It looks like Ned being the smart baseball man he is has successfully blocked the division rival Giants from from nabing Pierre, what a move ...............!#$$%^&:(

Ned meet Jim Bowden

2006-11-20 16:05:38
270.   King of the Hobos
If Pierre makes $9 mil next season for the Dodgers, he would have the second highest salary on the team! Kent also would have $9 mil and Lowe is at $9.5 mil.
2006-11-20 16:06:15
271.   Bob Timmermann
266

Pierre's OBP+ was a whopping 81 last year.

I think Greg Brock should go off to a quiet place and think about Karl Dorrell.

2006-11-20 16:08:41
272.   trainwreck
267
Your statement justifies signing an outfielder, but not signing Juan Pierre. If you wanted to sign a guy to a 5 year deal, we could have waited to make a big offer to Wells or Jones next year.
2006-11-20 16:09:00
273.   Greg Brock
271 Not. Helping.
2006-11-20 16:09:03
274.   WellsforKemp
So I thought it was impossible but we actually lost Loften and will have less power in CF next year who would have thought....
2006-11-20 16:09:54
275.   stopthebeachballs
(Juan Pierre is terrible! It's news-man, not news-Juan!)

I don't know why we're yelling!

Loud Voices!!

2006-11-20 16:10:19
276.   natepurcell
I hate Ned Colletti. going into the offseason, i thought to myself how hard it would be for Colletti to really mess up the Dodgers for the future.

I may have underestimated Colletti's capabilties.

2006-11-20 16:10:40
277.   StolenMonkey86
270 - Don't forget we're paying Odalis Perez to help us by not being a Dodger
2006-11-20 16:10:42
278.   Daniel Zappala
I remember when I was a kid and I would have been ecstatic we were signing a .300 average centerfielder. Maybe Colletti is tapping into his inner child.
2006-11-20 16:10:52
279.   WellsforKemp
I already miss Loftens 2 HR a year average
2006-11-20 16:10:57
280.   Marty
274 Less power and a WORSE arm
2006-11-20 16:12:27
281.   WellsforKemp
I remember when I was a kid and I would have been ecstatic we were signing a .300 average centerfielder. Maybe Colletti is tapping into his inner child.

again, Ned meet Jim Bowden

2006-11-20 16:12:28
282.   ssjames
276 I believe you misunderestimated him greatly. This may go down as being worse than the Dreifort deal. Pierre will not only eat up ridiculous salary, he will do it, while leading the league in outs every single year of the deal.
2006-11-20 16:12:34
283.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
This is the Dodgers' first signing in a long while that make me feel queasy.
Ned, you're an idiot.
2006-11-20 16:13:14
284.   Daniel Zappala
276 You could be a Red Sox fan and be staring at all those prospects who are doing well elsewhere. Ours aren't gone yet. It's one thing to sign Alex Cora (or Juan Pierre), it's another to trade Hanley Ramirez (or Matt Kemp).

The worry is that we're on that path, but it's not clear what path we're following right now.

2006-11-20 16:13:29
285.   dsfan
253 --

I really don't think Roberts would have gone to the Dodgers for a two-year deal. Why would he? He's 34 and can command a three-year deal, maybe more.
Even if you overpaid him for two years, somewhat like the Furcal M.O, I suspect the three-year guarantee he gets will exceed a rich two-year deal by a seven-figure sum. An extra guaranteed year has to be pretty enticing to a 34-year-old guy with his injury history.

2006-11-20 16:13:43
286.   Xeifrank
267. Pierre is not average. And 5 years? You gotta be kidding. Just get a stopgap instead of Pierre for 5 years @9 mil per. Repko, Lofton, Kemp a combo of the three plus some other filler. If Pierre was our 1 year stopgap then I could live reason myself to live with it. But not for 5 years. That's just too ridiculous. Calgon, take me away!!!!!!! vr, Xei
2006-11-20 16:13:54
287.   Greg Brock
I sure hope Bob has those effigies ready.

And enough gas to get to Vegas (Yay Prius/Prii!)

2006-11-20 16:14:01
288.   Marty
Has anybody really announced anything? There still may be a chance it's not true.
2006-11-20 16:14:47
289.   dsfan
Well, I guess I won't agitate anymore for Furcal to move to CF in 2008.
2006-11-20 16:15:27
290.   dsfan
Nate, sorry if this adds to your misery, but does signing Pierre cost the Dodgers a draft pick?
2006-11-20 16:15:37
291.   WellsforKemp
Has anybody really announced anything? There still may be a chance it's not true.

that would be awesome and hilarious at the same time

2006-11-20 16:16:09
292.   gibsonhobbs88
Well, if it's done, it's done! Our focus should be on getting a frontline SP now!!

I agree that we are overpaying for Pierre especially in terms of years. 5 Years, Woe is Me and fans of the Blue!:(

2006-11-20 16:17:03
293.   Greg Brock
I'll just wait for Plaschke to tell me what to think about this.

He's never steered me wrong before...

{crawls into fetal position}

2006-11-20 16:17:04
294.   ssjames
Does anyone here know anyone in the Dodgers' front office? If so, maybe we could make Dodgerthoughts mandatory reading for Ned. It might teach him about stats besides BA, HRs, and ERA. He could learn that these stats can be misleading as to a player's true worth. Please somebody teach him this.

I will have a hard time rooting for a team full of Pierres and Hendrickson, who Ned acquires, because he looks at their superficial stats, and thinks they must be good.

2006-11-20 16:17:33
295.   natepurcell
Nate, sorry if this adds to your misery, but does signing Pierre cost the Dodgers a draft pick?

no, pierre is only a type b free agent and with the new cba, type Bs only give clubs a compensation pick. dodgers do not give up any draft picks for this signing.

thats basically the only decent thing about this signing.

2006-11-20 16:17:44
296.   trainwreck
276
I was trying my hardest not to say that, but you did it for me so thank you.
2006-11-20 16:19:08
297.   trainwreck
294
Ned may read DT and just hate all of us, because most of us were not the happiest bunch when he was hired.
2006-11-20 16:19:10
298.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
323-224-1500
That's the Dodger Stadium switchboard. I just called with a plea to not sign Pierre.
Whether you call is your decision, but I needed the consolation that I did something to stop this wretched decision.
2006-11-20 16:19:33
299.   natepurcell
im afraid to go to BTF and rip the thread about this. I dont think i can stomach the constant ripping we will be getting from outsiders.
2006-11-20 16:21:09
300.   Greg Brock
Help us Obi Wan Sabean, you're our only hope...
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2006-11-20 16:21:31
301.   trainwreck
Wait a second! I get it! Now the Nomar signing looks great compared to this.
2006-11-20 16:22:30
302.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
"I dont think i can stomach the constant ripping we will be deservedly getting from outsiders."
Fixed.
2006-11-20 16:22:42
303.   Uncle Miltie
Isn't it possible that Pierre could be dealt part way through the deal? Maybe if the Dodgers are out of the race, some team would want to add Pierre for the stretch run. The only thing worse than signing Juan Pierre for five years is signing Juan Pierre for five years AND giving him a no trade clause. See, not all hope is lost.

I don't understand why Ned wouldn't just stick with Lofty for another year. He is actually more productive than Pierre, even at 39.

2006-11-20 16:22:52
304.   Daniel Zappala
297 On the other hand, most of us seem to be on a first name basis with him, so we must be friends, right? :-)
2006-11-20 16:23:08
305.   WellsforKemp
Who is Pierres agent? if hes not Boras, I think hes gotta be the next....5 years for Pierre. How big was his stat book it must dwarf everyones at Boras and co.
2006-11-20 16:23:16
306.   Bob Timmermann
Greg,
Just go in a quiet place and think about Red Sanders.
2006-11-20 16:25:11
307.   dsfan
I always find intriguing the final measure of gross excess....the Rockies giving Helton full no-trade powers on top of the billion-dollar guarantee....the Pirates giving Kendall full no-trade powers on top of a $60-milion guarantee...the Dodgers giving Kevin Brown not just $100 million but an extra $8 million and all of those corporate jet perks.....

You know, the part where the agent just shows off and gets the club to pony up even more money or power to the client -- long after reason has left the room.

To that end, I'd be fascinated to know the logic behind giving Pierre those fourth and fifth years. OK, just the fifth year. Really, after you've guaranteed Pierre four years and $36 million, how do you increase the madness and kick in that fifth year? What leverage, at that point, gets Pierrez the extra $9 millioin?

Fascinating dymanic, but probably not totally foreign to any of us who's been locked into a car dealer's office. I escaped my encounter, but I felt like the walls were closing in.

2006-11-20 16:26:53
308.   Uncle Miltie
It's like on Christmas when you ask for a train set and get clothes instead.

I wanted Carl Crawford, Vernon Wells, anyone but Juan Pierre and Ned brought me Juan Pierre.

2006-11-20 16:27:31
309.   dsfan
295

Thanks Nate. Glad to find something to ease your pain.

2006-11-20 16:27:46
310.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
308 - No, at least clothes have a use.
2006-11-20 16:28:12
311.   Greg Brock
308 It's like when you ask for a train set and you get the Ebola Virus.

Not the nice looking necktie either. The actual virus.

2006-11-20 16:28:12
312.   Daniel Zappala
299 It's brutal.
2006-11-20 16:28:22
313.   dsfan
Are we sure Pierre didn't get no-trade powers?
2006-11-20 16:28:28
314.   WellsforKemp
its more like wanting Crawford and getting a lump of coal....what did I do to deserve this Ned?!?!
2006-11-20 16:28:34
315.   Xeifrank
308. No, it's more like the Charlie Brown Halloween special where everyone gets candy and Charlie Brown got rocks. We just got handed a boulder. vr, Xei
2006-11-20 16:28:51
316.   stopthebeachballs
307

Why don't GM's try the same thing? Okay, Pierre gets 5/$45 million, but we withhold the right to make him read dodgerthoughts.com every time he is thrown out stealing.

2006-11-20 16:29:44
317.   regfairfield
So far only the Cubs guy has made fun of us on the SBN mailing list, which is only fair since I ripped on the Soriano deal so hard.

I'm sure the worst is to come.

2006-11-20 16:30:22
318.   Xeifrank
Any guesses on Jon'w Juan Pierre signing blog entry title?
Mine: P-Error.
vr, Xei
2006-11-20 16:32:55
319.   regfairfield
Why were the Giants going after Pierre? Isn't centerfield the only position where they have a semi-decent player?
2006-11-20 16:33:14
320.   WellsforKemp
Dodger front office: please finish off any hope of the 2007 season by signing Steve Trachel to his rumored 3 year deal,
2006-11-20 16:33:26
321.   blue22
Let's play fill in the blank:

This is the worst Dodgers roster move since ______.

2006-11-20 16:33:29
322.   Greg Brock
The only thing that can take the sting out of this is a huge Notre Dame victory over Southern Cal this weekend.

Right Bob?

2006-11-20 16:34:17
323.   Disabled List
These are the kind of signings that make it hard to root for the team. Seriously.

Jon, I really hope you go OFF in your next post. You're a terrific writer, but I think too often you stake the sensible middle ground. I want to see what you can do when you let your emotions get a hold of you. Go crazy, get nuts, let 'em have it with both barrels...

If ever a Dodger news item called for an irrational outburst, this is it.

2006-11-20 16:35:07
324.   overkill94
318 Juan Pee-ewe
2006-11-20 16:35:21
325.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
321 - The Dreifort contract.
2006-11-20 16:36:00
326.   Daniel Zappala
We can all take solace that at least the LA Times has a front-page article on Yermo.
2006-11-20 16:36:14
327.   Marty
322 If that happens, I may not be able to leave the house.
2006-11-20 16:36:43
328.   natepurcell
i need to be general manager.
2006-11-20 16:36:48
329.   Xeifrank
321.
This is the worst Dodgers roster move since ______ the hiring of Ned Colletti.
I know it isn't technically a roster move, but I'm in a bad mood. vr, Xei
2006-11-20 16:36:49
330.   Greg Brock
Jon's next headline:

Dodger Fans Undecided on Pierre Signing...

2006-11-20 16:37:12
331.   Bob Timmermann
322
The Griddle will have a piece on USC-Notre Dame and my relationship to it Friday night.
2006-11-20 16:37:57
332.   Greg Brock
331 Outstanding. Can't wait.
2006-11-20 16:39:32
333.   Marty
Anybody who can root for Notre Dame against anyone would sign Juan Pierre.
2006-11-20 16:39:37
334.   natepurcell
dodgers are getting ripped hard over at minorleagueball.com

sigh, i think this is just the calm before the storm. whe we sign steve trax to a 3yr 25mil deal and trade kemp, laroche and loney to the white sox for jon garland...thats when we know the worst has past.

2006-11-20 16:40:05
335.   Xeifrank
331. I got Notre Dame hosting a first round BCS playoff (12 team) game vs BYU. vr, Xei
http://xeionsports.blogspot.com/
2006-11-20 16:40:17
336.   CanuckDodger
267 -- To answer the question about Dodger outfield prospects, there isn't a CF prospect on my personal list of Top 30 Dodger prospects. Kemp has too many MLB at bats to be eligible for that list, but if the Dodgers see him as a RF long term, then there really aren't any long-term, in-house options for CF, unless somebody wants to say Repko, and I doubt anybody does.

If the plan is to start Loney in RF this year and let Kemp take over when he is ready, with Loney being the long-term 1B, then I can live with this. This move is consistent with the "high-batting-average-throughout-line-up-with-speed-at-the-top" approach to constructing an offense we had this year, and that I am fine having going forward while the power of young players like Kemp, Laroche, Ethier, and Loney matures. But if the Dodgers see this move as making Kemp available for trade, then I don't like it at all.

At any rate, I cetainly prefer this to trading for Wells or Jones. Especially after the Soriano contract, they are not signing extensions, and they will be seeking $20 Million a year for 8 or 9 years after 2007. If Kemp is not a long-term CF, then signing an acceptable MLB CF long term at what is deemed "reasonable" money in this insane market is not necessarily a bad move, judged in isolation. What our other plans are will determine if the move is bad or not. I know people will say that Pierre is NOT an acceptable MLB CF, but as with shortstop, CF is a position at which few MLB players are sabermetric heroes, because the baseball industry cares a lot more about how fast they run than if they hit for any power.

2006-11-20 16:41:14
337.   dsfan
I posited that Wrigley Field was one of the worst hitting venues for Pierre, because it's relatively small OF would work against his spray-hitting, low-power style. Good OFs probably can crowd him with impunity anywhere, but it's easier done in Wrigley.

I would think a bigger outfield would benefit his offense (as for his throwing, the opposite).

Not that Dodger Stadium has a huge OF, but I think it should be better for Pierre offensively than Wrigley. The same holds for the other OFs in the NL West, which are quite big.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Pierre comment on this. I don't think he was Cub long enough for there to be a lot of data. Just a guess. could be totally wrong on all of this but am searching for a positive element or two on the margin.

2006-11-20 16:41:27
338.   Greg Brock
333 Hey, that's the worst thing anybody's ever said to me!

You! You! You're the Pierre...signer...wanter...

2006-11-20 16:42:34
339.   WellsforKemp
What will Pierre's DT nickname be next year?

I'll vote for Juan "I hope my little dribbler finds another hole between SS and 3rd again" Pierre

I think it just rolls off the tounge......

2006-11-20 16:42:37
340.   Marty
338 It's not personal. It's just business.
2006-11-20 16:42:55
341.   Marty
The business of hating Notre Dame
2006-11-20 16:43:45
342.   Bob Timmermann
341
Marty has stolen my theme for my piece.
2006-11-20 16:44:03
343.   FirstMohican
If this is true, I'm embarrassed to be a Dodger fan. This is unimaginable.
2006-11-20 16:44:34
344.   ssjames
321 I would say its the worst deal since the Pedro for Desheilds trade. Might even be worse than that, because at least that was justifiable at the time.
2006-11-20 16:44:40
345.   Greg Brock
339
Pierre has many nicknames

None of which can be used at this wholesome sight.

Slappy McPutout works.

2006-11-20 16:45:09
346.   trainwreck
I am going to gorge myself in burritos now.
2006-11-20 16:45:26
347.   WellsforKemp
336. CanuckDodger

The thing I don't like about Kemp not in CF is his overall value goes down, he becomes more average

2006-11-20 16:45:35
348.   FirstMohican
Hopefully Pierre is the part of the CF platoon that plays all games in Coors Field.
2006-11-20 16:46:09
349.   Xeifrank
Is it possible that Ned Colletti is a double agent and is secretly also (still) employed by the SF Giants in an attempt to drive their nemisis the LA Dodgers into the ground. His MO would be to get hired and immediately gain the trust of the Dodgers (signing Nomar, trading Choi), then later in the season start laying the seeds of turmoil by trading for as many Tampa Bay Devil Ray bad players as possible. During the offseason you then begin to further tare things apart by burning bridges with your best hitter JD Drew and ponying up a 5 year $45mil contract to a terrible hitting, poor fielding CF. I think we have a double agent on our hands and lord knows what other evil Ned has up his sleeves. vr, Xei
2006-11-20 16:46:19
350.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
{337] - The Wrigley Field argument has some merit.
Wrigley: 282/323/363/687
Road: 301/336/411/747
Show/Hide Comments 351-400
2006-11-20 16:46:54
351.   Bob Timmermann
343
That's going a little too far.

I would be embarrassed to be a Dodgers fan if the fans did things like run on the field a lot, hit beach balls all the time, do the wave, not pay attention to the game, and get into fights in the parking lots.

2006-11-20 16:47:14
352.   adraymond
336
If there's anything positive to be taken from this I guess that can be it. There don't seem to be any other Dodger prospects in the outfield. But to call Pierre average is misleading unless you are mean average baseball player, as in of all the people who play baseball. He is a below average average center fielder.
2006-11-20 16:47:43
353.   Marty
Slappy McThrownOut works too.
2006-11-20 16:47:56
354.   natepurcell
The thing I don't like about Kemp not in CF is his overall value goes down, he becomes more average

Colletti likes average.

2006-11-20 16:48:35
355.   WellsforKemp
Colletti likes average.

bada bing!

2006-11-20 16:48:40
356.   Uncle Miltie
I didn't think it was possible to downgrade from Kenny Lofton
2006-11-20 16:49:06
357.   regfairfield
Average is the new above average.

Now, I have no clue why he'd say that, then get Juan Pierre.

2006-11-20 16:49:50
358.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
In 126 at-bats, Pierre's numbers at DS: 278/336/325/661.
Oh. Dear. God.
2006-11-20 16:49:50
359.   Greg Brock
357
Below average is the new above average.
2006-11-20 16:51:02
360.   natepurcell
juan pierre is the new kasmir.
2006-11-20 16:51:24
361.   Greg S
351 Better get that scarlet D ready.
2006-11-20 16:51:52
362.   Curtis Lowe
The only mention of this signing and this 5/45 deal is "a source told ESPN.com "

No other news source has anything to say about this other than the Dodgers are in talks with Pierre's agent.

I'll believe it when I see pinhead running around CenterField.

2006-11-20 16:52:59
363.   WellsforKemp
Its good to have an "old school" vet in the GM spot isnt it?
all those confusing #'s like OBP were too confusing with Depo
2006-11-20 16:53:37
364.   Greg Brock
If you're really quiet, you can hear Steve loading his shotgun.

Listen...

2006-11-20 16:54:25
365.   dsfan
350-

Interesting, thanks. Perhaps there's not enough data. Maybe he's an out machine, long term, no matter what.
Still I'd be curious to know what Pierre says. Seems that if Wrigley was a poor fit him, he would have something to say about it, how it impacted his approach, etc.

Searching further for some sunshine beyond the clouds, Roberts, seemingly a similar style hitter to Pierre, had his best years at age 33 and 34...so maybe Pierre isn't in his decline phase. If he gives the Dodger three years that are as good as his best year, there's cause for some satisfaction.

However, his walk-averse ways are so daunting....

2006-11-20 16:54:54
366.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.
2006-11-20 16:55:08
367.   Xeifrank
Not having a legit CF prospect in the minors is not a reason to go out and pay Juan Pierre 45mil for 5 very long years. There are many other options.
1. Sign someone else.
2. Trade for a MLB CFer.
3. Trade for someone elses CF prospect.

I just don't see the logic behind, "We don't have a legit CFer in our minor league system, we better go out and sign Juan Pierre for 5 years."

Then by that logic, why not trade Betemit and put a block of cement at third base.

vr, Xei

2006-11-20 16:55:24
368.   Vaudeville Villain
In honor of Thomas Pynchon's new book, let's have a little reading that seems approppriate...

"A screaming comes across the sky. It has happened before, but there is nothing to compare it to now.

It is too late..."

2006-11-20 16:56:29
369.   still bevens
362 There's also an article on dodgers.com - 'Dodgers eye Pierre for center field'
2006-11-20 17:06:37
370.   CanuckDodger
352 -- Who considers Pierre a "below average average center fielder?" Obviously just about everybody here. The sabermetric community, very likely. However, the scouting community rates Pierre's ability to hit for average and fielding as "above average" and his speed as "plus", or way above average. They don't like his arm, and his power is worse than his arm, but scouts never hold a center fielder's lack of power against him. In total, the scouting community LIKES Pierre. That the Dodgers under Colletti make moves based on what the scouting community thinks and not what sabermetricians think is something that I can understand people here deploring, but at this stage of the Colleti Administration people expressing shock over it is being naive. Now I suppose I am going to be told I am "insulting" people here by using the word "naive," but really I am not trying to offend anyone, and I only use the word because I think it is appropriate when people here do KNOW by now that Colletti is not making decisions based on peripheral offensive stats and defensive metrics. Colletti is trusting his scouts.
2006-11-20 17:28:32
371.   FirstMohican
351 - But I don't root for people who "run on the field a lot, hit beach balls all the time, do the wave, not pay attention to the game, and get into fights in the parking lots." I root for a fun team to watch, a successfully run Los Angeles based business, and I root for talented baseball players who want to be a part of that.

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