likewise jon!

happy holidays!

I am thankful for large, flightless birds that fit perfectly in my tummy. And for stuffing, the greatest thing invented, ever, in the history of stuff being invented.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Some of us are working Saturday and Sunday... :=(

Some of us are working today =(

I trust at some point soon, you'll have some weekdays off to flaunt.

The best thing about Thanksgiving is four days of BookTV on CSPAN2. Four days! In a row!

Ooh, I hope they'll replay the Miami Book Festival panel on biographies. I missed it, last weekend.

Some of us have a project due tonight, does that count?

Some of us are about to be stuck on the freeway :=(

Even an infrequent poster such as myself is plenty thankful for DT. So thanks Jon, and everyone else.

8 I have to strand myself on the freeway as well. Let's hope all acetone delivery truck drivers have today off.

Happy Thanksgiving Dodger Thoughts!

I keep praying for our dishawasher to die because it's still covered under the home warranty. Any good advice on how to deliver the final blow?

7-Who sets Thanksgiving evening as a deadline?

Hey Ned- thanks for bringing the turkey this year!

13- No. But, if you ever need to kill a microwave, that's a lot of fun.

Happy turkey day, all!

A bit of a thread leftover...weak pun intended===

"Turkey" is one of the kinder terms many DTers use to describe Pierre's signing.

Not to rehash or rebash the deal, but whatever anyone thinks of the value of the stolen base, speed and SBs will be parts of the '07 Dodger offense.

New Dodger Pierre has 325 career SB with 116 CS, about .737 success. Not too shabby.

Hello, Maury Wills, who already works with Dodger baserunners. With his image, you'd think Wills' SB success percentage would be highest in Dodger history. Think again--490 of 661,.741. Also, FWIW, Wills' OBP was .331, SLG .332,. BA .281.

In Wills' era, as he went, so went a lot what passed for the Dodger offense. So he may have taken more chances than warranted, a version of taking a thrown out for the team. Who knows? But if JP and other Dodger baserunners will listen and think of Wills in '62, 104 of 113, success rate .888, they might improve. Yeah, the game has changed. But Wills shouldn't have credibilty issues about stealing bases.

The highest career SB success rate for LA? Davey Lopes, 418/503, .831. Willie Davis turned in 335/451, .7427. Wonder why Lopes success rate was so much greater than other big-name Dodger speedsters?

Also, BA is far from the ultimate hitting stat. But JP's is .303 lifetime, not too shabby even with scads and scads of outs. Hello, Eddie Murray? If JP will listen to a HOFer who appears to have done a good job with LA in year one, maybe there's hope for hitting improvement, too, as in less outs at least. Get JP away from the Cubs, and maybe there's upside several ways.

Let's hope.

As Jon has said more than once, one signing--whatever its merits--is not proof the Big Blue sky is falling.

I wonder, would it be a good risk to sign Cliff Floyd to a 1 year contract?

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I hope you all get enough to eat!

I'm feeding 13 at my house today. We have one roasted turkey, one smoked turkey, stuffing, two kinds of spuds, brussels sprouts (in Bob's honor), carrots, lasagna (for a vegetarian), two pies and a boatload of wine. I think I'll have enough food.

18
Marty,
I would be honored to come to your house and eat Brussels sprouts.

However, you would need to make sure that I'm about 100 feet clear of your house about 45 minutes after consuming them.

I love Brussel(s) sprouts! Alas, my T-day dinner consisted of cold pizza with Hot Sauce (Franks!). Home alone - disc got re-aggravated this past weekend and the othopeadic place I go to is closed. sigh I've been trying to get an MRI for a year, and when I'm ready nobody's in the little room. :-)

But I am really thankful. As my mom says at least I wasn't killed in the accident that started my back troubles. Plus lots of friends home, some to see babies born while they were overseas. Wife and kids are away, so I've seen more movies in two days than I have in six months. And thankfully, I was not in a mood to care about Pierre.

It's good to take a break from DT, it makes me appreciate it more. Also, Dodger's would seem to be well off in a traders market...do we still "own" Lugo? I'm thinking we do, and he ought to be worth something in trade. I'm just hoping that it's not Danys Baez.

Bob, think of the possibilities of a brussells sprouts/asparagus combo!

I would say about half the people coming to my house hate brussels sprouts. But it's my favorite vegetable and since I'm the host...

Also, they are loaded with garlic so even people who don't like them would probably like these.

Plus, you can cook asparagus and sprouts the exact same way. I consider your guests fortunate.

Doh, Lugo is FA. Reflecting on all of Coletti's moves, only Furcal, Maddux and Anderson make any sense to me.

Let's hope.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Stan from Tacoma

Hawaii's shaking again. But it's pretty far away from Link (again). Still. Every time there's an earthquake out there, he should check in and let us know he's fine.

http://tinyurl.com/yzdvkl

Jon,

I have not posted in over a year now as I am out of my league in regards to other posters and their wit-and-insights, but I still enjoy visiting D-T EVERY day!

I want to wish you, your family, and all the great posters at D-T a wonderful Thanksgiving!

23 Nomar worked out well for him, too. Anderson gets a "C"; he was great the first week or so, then totally lost it. Agree on Maddux and Furcal. His other deals were stinkers. I would rather he had done nothing this winter and go with Kemp, Repko, Ethier, etc, rather than sign Pierre.
We haven't seen the end of trouble yet. He is a poor judge of talent and has a compulsion to make deals even when unnecessary, like H & H and Lugo and Anderson. We got lucky with Anderson but the others lived up to their reputation. Oddly enough, I think Pierre will probably live up to his career averages but he just isn't worth that much money and he doesn't fill a need for us.

{26} Blue, don't be so hard on yourself. Most of us are legends in our own minds, AND NOWHERE ELSE! It's all just opinions, feel free to jump in.

I am legend in my own mind and was well as Tommy Westphall's.

I am legend in my own mind and was well as Tommy Westphall's.

25 Andrew, thanks for the kind thought. I was in the shower and didn't feel a thing, nor did the other inhabitants of this house. My sister, two or three hills over, did feel it and called us (but did she tell us what time to expect her and her family? Nope.)

One year our microwave broke mid-peas & onions-preparation. I suddenly had to remember how to cook veggies in a saucepan.

Happy Turkey Day, DTers.

Pierre figures to hit first or second, with Furcal hitting first, second or third

Just stopping by to say Happy Thanksgiving and to post this little gem. No doubt it has already been discussed, but I haven't had time to plow through the Pierre mess.

I haven't had time to plow through the Pierre mess.

"Plow through" is a good term.
Someone needs to find us a way out.
Its pretty dark where I'm at now.

Does anyone see any light?

33 Yeah, I think I hear a train. Do you hear that, too?

Update: I don't have to buy a new dishwasher. Hooray!

That's good news that your dishwasher didn't opt out of its existing deal. With the market for dishwashers as it is, you would probably be stuck with a model that was remarkably efficient but not very powerful. :)

The 2007 Dodgers will score more runs than the 2006 version!

I said it

I meant it

and I am here to represent it!

How is that bad?

Don't worry. Be happy!

Get over the imagined bleakness. The sky is not falling!

The economics in baseball have changed with the new CBA, like it or not!

Let me give you some advise: Don't pick Pierre for your fantasy team. He's not that player. But he is a guy who can play CF on a World Series winner...

warts and all!

Happy Thanksgiving!
I'm thankful for DodgerThoughts - thanks Jon!
(i'll leave the Pierre griping for after the holiday...)

36 - However, if your fantasy league rewards average and stolen bases without considering OBP and CS (like mine last season), then Juan Pierre might not be bad.

Happy Turkey Day to all DT'ers. I've been away (both in Europe and now in NC for the holiday) so forgive me. Has anyone commented on the relative demerits of the Pierre and Sarge, Jr. deals. 6-4-2 quotes a source to the effect that the Angels' deal takes the cake. More money, older, following a year which is a complete outlier. What does the commentariat think?

39 - I'm still in denial.

36 Your new name is The Mad Poet. "Mad" because you sound like you're insane and "Poet" because your last poet had a certain prose to it.

Seriously though, Pierre is fantasy gold - there aren't many guys out there who can steal 50 bases and score over 100 runs. Of course he doesn't hit any homers or knock anybody in, but still...

41 At the end of that first sentence it should say "post", not "poet" - too much turkey for me.

I'm thankful for the Internet ... otherwise how would we all connect?

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you.

I'd like to echo 43 above. I am very thankful that in the few moments I have to take a break from doing what I'm doing, there is no better place for me to talk Dodgers. And I love the Dodgers.

Thanks, Jon. Thanks all of you. And happy holiday.

43, 44 - Indeed.

happy thanksgiving every one! instead of turkey, this year i had peking duck. anyway, i hope you all enjoy your t-day meals, whatever and wherever they are. all the best, v.

Hmmm.. tryptophan ....

Zzzzzzzzzzzz......

Happy Thanksgiving, good people! And thanks, Bob, sushirabbit and Marty for the extended discourse on the merits of Brussel Sprouts. I now have the perfect gift idea for people who race their SUVs to get ahead of a moving bus before the light turns red. I'm saving tonight's bounty for the people who use their baby strollers as battering rams when crossing the street in busy traffic. Fun! We need more healthy minds in this part of the nation. Good night! >;)

This should be standard reading for all baseball GMs, especially ours.

Speed Does Kill.
http://tinyurl.com/yy394m

vr, Xei

I am thankful for pretending to be asleep while other people do the dishes.

I am also thankful for Jon Weisman, who runs the most well written, insightful, and intelligent site dedicated to one team in all the tubes.

And for the great posters, who make me laugh every five minutes. All of you are great.

And that's it for sincerity. Maybe I'll have some more around the Apocalypse.

Don't bet on it.

I'm thankful to have a life where my baseball team signing Juan Pierre counts as legitimate bad news.

I'm basking in the glow of having successful fed 14 family yesterday and already being cleaned up. And we have a frideful of leftovers and my 25 lb turkey was just downright perfect. My sister's hard-to-please mother in law from Jersey pronounced it the very best Thanksgiving Dinner she'd ever had.

Which didn't actually bring a smile to my poor sister's face.

Happy Day After Thanksgiving All.

You too Sam. My turkey came out perfect as well. The smoked version was amazing too. I'm only about half-way cleaned up though. Our group had a intenses game of "catch-phrase" after dessert also. We really know how to party.

I don't post that often, but I'm very thankful for Jon and this site. It makes my workday go that much faster, every single day.

And I thank Bob Timmermann for his constant support of SABR.

54
I had a nightmare once that someone was discussing "the SABR philosophy on Veteran's Day."

Carlos Lee reportedly signs with Houston for 6 years.

http://tinyurl.com/ycxkqd

I think you mean: http://tinyurl.com/se2p3

57 - Did you know he was wrong just from looking at the "ycxkqud" part?

I thought the central philosophy of SABR was "Every man for himself"

Of course, I thought Aristotle was Belgian, so there you go...

57
Oops! Well, I was close.

This news report is both scary and very bizarre:

Miami police evacuated The Miami Herald building today after a disgruntled cartoonist for the Spanish-language edition of the paper entered the building in camouflage gear brandishing what a security guard said was a machine gun, police and news reports said.

58- Nope. I had to click it twice to make sure, actually.

LSU-Arkansas ought to be a decent game.

oops, wrong thread!

61. What works as camo in Miami? I'm picturing Hank Azaria's character from the Birdcage.

65
The situation was resolved without any violence thankfully.

61 - That craazy Caarl Hiaasen??

Luis Gonzalez . 5 years, $22M. New Dodger Left Fielder?

Um. What? Where are you seeing that?

68 Why would you say that?

What a terrible thing to say. And the day after a holiday! Geez.

No is going to give Luis Gonzalez a contract that will pay him until he is 44 years old.

"No one" that is.

68
Great, I am 22 and almost had a heart attack.

If Ned signed Gonzo to 3yrs 22 mils, would that really surprise anyone?

74 Not surprise. Disgust.

At this point, if Ned did something I really liked then I would be surprised.

Yes, it would surprise me thoroughly. The quality of arguments in favor of it (where they could be scared up, to begin with) probably would not.

carlos lee for 100 mill? yeesh.

I wish we just sat out this round...went with an OF Eithier, Loney, and a trade...then used the cash on Zito and Schmidt. Penny, Zito, Schmidt, Lowe, Bills would look pretty nice.,...

Would it be more insane to give Louis Gonzalez a five year deal, twenty-two million dollar deal, or to give it to the other Louis Gonzalez? Is he even arbitration eligible yet?

On another Dodger board, someone put up the Bill James Handbook 2007 projections for our position players:

Pierre: .299/.346/.373
Furcal: .287/.356/.418
Garciaparra: .304/.364/.504
Kent: .286/.366/.487
Ethier: .306/.367/.466
Martin: .288/.375/.425
Betemit: .268/.331/.443
Loney: .305/.360/.460

Kemp: .311/.365/.503
Laroche: .287/.373/.462

If those projections came true, or close, we would have a pretty formidable run-scoring machine on our hands, it just wouldn't be dependent on home runs.

2006 -- 2007 (Dodger board James' projections)

Lofton .301/.360/.403 -- Pierre: .299/.346/.373
Furcal .300/.369/.445 -- Furcal: .287/.356/.418
Nomar .303/.367/.505 -- Nomar: .304/.364/.504
Kent .292/.385/.477 -- Kent: .286/.366/.487
Ethier .308/.365/.477 -- Ethier: .306/.367/.466
Martin .282/.355/.436 -- Martin: .288/.375/.425
Betemit .241/.306/.437 -- Betemit: .268/.331/.443
Drew .283/.393/.498 - Loney: .305/.360/.460

A good offense. Not as good as this year (worse in six of the eight slots), but much will depend on how much each player ends up playing. And unprojectable luck.

And look at the projections for two players who figure to start out in Vegas, Kemp and LaRoche. It would be nice substituting LaRoche for Betemit. And there isn't room for Kemp at all -- until Nomar inevitably goes on the DL, then move Loney to 1B and Kemp goes in at RF.

Kemp's and Nomar's projections are nearly a perfect push, so, while it's nice that projected production wouldn't drop off when Nomar checked out, it's not a pick-up. LaRoche for Betemit is the big money, but doesn't change the worse in six of the eight spots math.

I'm not one of the few people who genuinely believe signing Pierre means the Dodgers will never win again. But it looks to me like the offense will very likely be worse, next year, than it was this year. And that the defense could well (RF and 2B in particular) be worse. So, if the pitching can pick up enough slack, the team wouldn't have to be worse. But, there is some slack, there. Hope Kuo and Billingsly really come through, that Penny recovers, that the bullpen is lucky, and that Flanders picks up a good arm.

82 - I see Kent going down with injury before Nomar does.

Or at least for longer.

Also, the Kemp for Nomar trade only works if Grady doesn't push Kent to first, and start Martinez or Marlon in the spot. And Loney in RF isn't a lock, right? Grits could put Ethier in right, and start Marlon in LF. . . That move would put the number of worse positions at 7.

87 -- Yes, if Grady makes a bunch of moronic moves, there's not much point in worrying about what talent we have at all.[Smiley Face] It isn't enough to have the resources on hand, they have to be used properly.

86 - no, still six. The two better positions are Betemit and Martin, while everyone else is expected to be a step down to some degree; Loney would be replacing Drew, after all

"86" was the post I was responding to. [Smiley Face]

I don't know anything about the accuracy of the Bill James Handbook's projections, but on the other Dodger board someone said they are usually on the pessimistic side. If that is true, then it may be improper to assume that players like Nomar, Furcal, and Kent are going to do worse than they did last year. A lot will depend on Nomar and Kent's health. Kent was not very healthy this year, so I could see him doing better in 2007 than he did in 2006. Furcal got off to a horrible start in 2006 becaus of health, bringing down his overall numbers. I'm always pessimistic on Nomar's staying healthy, however.

FWIW, probably the most hardcore, analytical sabermetric poster over at baseball primer - mgl, who I believe is still working as a statistics/player evaluation consultant for the St. Louis Cardinals - doesn't view the Pierre signing nearly as negatively as many saber-inclined fans on this site seem to. Here's what he said about the widely-maligned Matthews and Pierre signings:

"I think that Sarge Jr. is a well-above average CF overall and that Pierre is average or a little above overall. UZR loves both of them in CF. Given the market for FA this year I don't think either signing was bad."

If mgl is right and Pierre has learned to turn his speed into top-notch defense - a big if, no doubt, although baseball primer resident defensive metrics whiz Chris Dial also had him as the top defensive CF in the NL last year - he can be quite valuable for us next year.

80. Only Pierre sticks out like a sore thumb. Slide Kemp's production in for Pierre and you have a healthy looking hand.

91. I give that analysis an "Incomplete" grade. UZR is one of the most popular defensive metrics, much better than David Pinto's metric. Another very popular defensive metric listed in the article below lists Pierre as one of the worst CFers.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/measuring-range/

vr, Xei

"Martin --.288/.375/.420"

Cant wait for the inevitable "Why is Grady batting Martin 8th and Pierre 2nd" comment...read continously over the next 5 years.

Would Grits have the guts to bat Pierre 8th, if Martin really does as well as projected?

88- Yeah, counting has never been my strong suit. But I make up for it in the speed with which I miscount!

87- Well, it's not necessarily stupid. If Kent can't hack 2B any more, then what? Do you sit him in favor of Kemp/Loney? Maybe, but that still leaves you with Martinez/Marlon at 2B.

James's projections miss in both directions. As do everybody else's.

And, since I can't get my act together to string all my thoughts in to one post, who knows if Kemp is going to make the opening day roster? Maybe he's the first call up, but that only matters if Nomar goes to the DL. He's going to be sitting enough, without that, that there'll be some one other than Loney (assuming he gets the starting spot) spending a significant amount of time in right, unless Saenz is the backup 1B.

It's almost like we don't know enough to fight about this, yet. But I'm sure if we try hard enough. . .

Maybe Sergio Garcia could fill in at 2B. He hit .328/.404/.486 at Vegas last year. As long as we don't look at any single stop in the rest of his pro career, it won't seem like such a terrible idea.

91 Of course, the Pierre and Matthews signings are the reason that this market is crazy.

Did anyone else imagine excitement for the 2007 season turning so quickly, on just two signings?.....

99 - with me it's just the Pierre signing.

Colletti has committed 5yrs 62mils combined to Nomar/Pierre.

Would it not have made more sense to attempt to resign Drew to 5/62, and just include another 2yr out for him?

I dont really think Nomar was a terrible signing it actually looks pretty good now. However, I would rather see Loney play, not to mention a Loney/Seanez platoon making a heck of a lot more sense.

Would it not have made more sense to attempt to resign Drew to 5/62, and just include another 2yr out for him?

Colletti is "old school" meaning things like "sense" and OBP for example, apparently are not in his vocabulary.

FWIW (i.e. nothing) ESPN has Merlin as the Dodgers' starting RF in their depth chart. If Kemp makes the team out of ST, Colletti wouldn't seem to need to pick up another position player. If he picks one up, that would seem to push Kemp out.

Among the more irritating things about the way the world works is that that decision could be made on the basis of eighty spring training at bats.

I would have gone to bed an hour ago, but Joe vs. the Volcano is on.

103 -- I believe Colletti has already said this off-season that he believes that Kemp needs another half-season in Triple A. If that is his opinion, or the opinion of the people advising him, then I think Kemp is going to start the season in Triple A regardless of whether we pick up another outfielder, or Kemp puts on a show in spring training. I think Loney is the guy who will be playing RF unless we get another outfielder, and since Loney is projected both by scouts and sabermetricians to do well in the majors in 2007, what is the point of bringing in another hitter? Do we really need somebody else to come in and force Loney to the bench (where we will already have a back-up 1B in Saenz) or block Kemp, when Kemp is as little as three months in Triple A away from being ready for primetime, according to Colletti's own estimation?

So in light of the above, what do we make of Colletti saying that if he gets more pitching depth he may trade pitching for another hitter? If he means it, it would be unnecessary and foolish. Or, he could just be putting that out there as a smokescreen because he doesn't want the media and fans jumping all over his back like they would if he comes right out and says what may be the truth: we are not acquiring any more hitters, and we are going to "go with what we got."

Is Loney playing RF in the DWL? Looks like he has a total of 6 put outs while playing in the OF in his professional career. You think it's a no-brainer, making him the RF till Kemp is ready, and that's fine. But I don't see being certain it'll happen, yet.

In his first 40 ABs of the Dominican Winter League, Loney is .250/.340/.450 with 2 HRs.

104 Canuck, I responded to your X-Files knowledge with more, well, X-Files knowledge.

I hope you had the chance to check it out over at Screen Jam. I remembered some really good episodes!

Oh, and if Kemp doesn't make the team, and there are no additional offensive pickups, we're carrying 12 pitchers, right? Or am I miscounting again.

Oh, LaRoche. Is he expected back in time for opening day? He's not playing Winter ball, right? Because of his shoulder(s)?

From todays Boston Globe-
Drew, who had just two singles in 13 at-bats while the Dodgers were being swept by the Mets in their National League Division Series and was one of the two players tagged out at the plate on the same play in the most bizarre moment of the postseason, also has been the subject of intense media criticism for a perceived lack of passion, especially when it came to playing hurt. His nickname in the Dodger clubhouse, according to one big league coach, was "Nancy Drew," and according to one major leaguer who has played against Drew for much of his career, one Dodger player greeted the news of Drew's departure by phoning friends in jubilation.

here's something interesting, from a tom verducci roundup:

"The Dodgers put in a bid for Matsuzaka -- a bid that might have been higher (though not Boston Red Sox higher) if Drew had alerted them to the possibility that he was opting out of his contract. Drew told a Dodgers coach on a Tuesday that he was happy in Los Angeles, the Dodgers bid on Matsuzaka Wednesday and on Thursday Drew told them he was gone..."

also in there was a quote from an agent regarding cubs GM jim hendry this offseason:

"Jim's going about it the right way," one agent said. "He's been like, 'No trade? An extra year? Sure. Whatever it takes.'"

gosh, an agent thinks that total capitulation to player demands is "going about it the right way". how shocking.

111 - I read that - ultimately, since the Dodgers weren't going to bid enough anyway, doesn't seem to amount to much. I do gather that Drew changed his mind at the last minute, but I still file it under "these things happen."

102-Of course we'd have to re-sign Seanez too. And he seems to have played fewer games at first than Loney has in right...

113

You mean Olmedo Saenz and not Rudy Seanez right?

Please don't tell me the Dodgers want Rudy Seanez.

Saenz is already under contract to us in 2007 for $1M.

Congrats to Jon for your inclusion in Los Angeles Magazine's list of LA's most influential figures. (December 06 issue).

114-I was teasing off of 102's typo is all. I can be hopeful we have no interest in reacquiring Rudy Seanez. And thankful we have Olmedo Saenz under contract for all of $1M. God knows what he'd be worth in today's market otherwise...

Over the past few days I have read much about the Pierre signing and just read this morning that it looks like the Giants will sign Dave Roberts for 3 years at about 5.5million per year.

While Pierre is a few years yonger it strikes me that in an inflated market, where it is tough to get power bats, if you want to go with speed and defense, signing Roberts would have been the better decision, and there would have been money saved.

Hacksaw, surprised the Red Sox would give Drew 14 million a year. "do you know people in the dodgers clubhouse called him Nancy Drew? fools gold," were his comments.

Honestly, does hate for the guy really blind people of his contributions on the field that much?

Doug Davis goes to the D'Backs:

http://tinyurl.com/ymgy4s

119 Well, who "knows how to win" better than players and ex-players-turned-television-analysts? If he was unpopular in the clubhouse, clearly he had no part in the Dodgers modest success this year.

NATE,

When I read this story from the San Diego Union Tribune, I thought of you. It appears the Astros stupidly gave the Padres two draft picks by signing Woody Williams before they really had to do it. Beyond which, why are the Astros giving a two-year guarantee to a pitcher who is 40 years old and desperately wanted to pitch for them? Just give him one year and an option.

By Tom Krasovic
STAFF WRITER

November 25, 2006

The Astros apparently did the Padres a favor yesterday when they agreed to terms with former Padres pitcher Woody Williams, because the deal ensured San Diego will get two picks for Williams in the June amateur draft.

Either way, the Padres had planned to let Williams, 40, depart in free agency, but they had doubts about getting compensatory draft picks for him. A player's former club must offer arbitration to get the picks, a dicey proposition for the Padres, because if Williams had accepted, he could have commanded at least $7 million for 2007.
When the Astros removed the guesswork, locking up the Houston native for two years at $12.5 million rather than waiting past the Dec. 7 deadline for clubs to offer arbitration, the Padres were assured an extra second-round draft pick and a supplemental pick.

The Astros yesterday also signed Carlos Lee, a two-time All-Star left fielder who played with Texas and Milwaukee last season, to a six-year, $100 million deal, the largest contract in Astros history.

Last season was Lee's fifth straight with at least 30 home runs and 99 RBI.

His contract includes a no-trade clause for the first four years.

"I'm not surprised Woody is going to Houston," said Padres General Manager Kevin Towers. "For professional and personal reasons, that was his No. 1 choice for years. We had some people in front of him we were looking at."

The Padres paid Williams a $5 million salary this year, plus $1.62 million for making 24 starts. Coming off a season that he rated the worst of his career, Williams rebounded to go 12-5 with a 3.65 ERA. The Padres went 17-7 in his starts, and Williams twice won at least three consecutive starts. At pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Williams was 4-2 with a 2.93 ERA, compared with road marks of 8-3 and 4.29.

Towers said he's happy that Williams can now live year-round with his family. Over the last two years, the pitcher went back to Houston several times during the baseball season to handle familial burdens.

"This is incredible," Williams said yesterday from Houston's ballpark, where he was joined at a new conference by his parents, wife and two of his three children. "I still can't believe it's happened.

"It's just something that I've always looked forward to but never dreamed it would happen."

I see where the Snakes traded Johnny Estrada, who would have been a good backup for us, and another player to Milwaukee for a catcher, a pitcher, and a centerfielder. Couldn't we have offerred them something in trade for Estrada and Eric Byrnes? Byrnes might be available now. Oh, I forgot, we already have a centerfielder...

118 --

I also am troubled by the Pierre contract. However, asking Dave Roberts to play CF at ages 35, 36 and 37 is asking for trouble. A small, supporting point: The CFs in San Francisco, Denver, Arizona and San Diego are larger than normal, which creates more problems if your center fielder is subpar -- and I consider Roberts, at this stage, to be subpar.

The Padres got it right when they moved Roberts from CF to LF, particularly in the NL West, where the LFs tend to be larger. Of course, the Padres had leverage, which they created by swiping Cameron.

For what it's worth, the Fielding Bible described Roberts as a good defensive CF prior to 2005 (in 2005, he got a minus-10 for his 901 innings in CF).

His arm is below average.

Eveland is a big ticket item. I'd never heard his name, but a 22 year old who spent last year being great in AAA, and has been great at every stop has to well regarded, doesn't he? Is he a Billingsly level prospect? And lefthanded, too.

Did the D'backs just pick up two SPs, for this year? I don't understand the point of Krynzel, and swapping Estrada for Snyder is a loss, but they have something resembling a rotation (Webb, Cruz, Davis, Eveland), now. That's bad news.

I could be dead wrong, but isn't Eveland thought to be more of a reliever than a starter?

Two othersother thing, and again, I could be wrong, but isn't Davis more of a contact pitcher with low K numbers. If so, Arizona could be a brutal park for him, unless his GB tendencies are more than I think they are. I also tend to think Davis will be very expensive past 2007.

My view is Krynzel is a longshot. Suspect hitter. Does run well. Kind of Anthony Gwynneseque, only less advanced.

On the big club in 2005, and in Rookie ball in 2003, he was. But he's been a starter everywhere else. Well, here's hoping he stays in the pen.

Davis's K numbers, over the last four years, are pretty decent. He's not a monster, and it looks like his control is suspect, but he's got to be better than some of the garbage they were trotting out last year.

I feel very safe in saying Eveland isn't thought to be in Billingsley's class. Not close -- maybe a No. 5 starter or a guy who shuttles from the bullpen to the rotation.
Davis would have been much, much better off getting traded to San Diego or SF. His low K numbers seem an ill fit for a hitting environment such as Arizona's.

Sorry if I didn't give Davis' K numbers enough credit. My recollection is they were fairly soft.

131 Didn't he lead the league in strikeouts in 2005?

132 Nevermind, he was tied for third.

In general he's pretty much a strikeout pitcher, although his K/9 last year was only a modest 7.04. His walk rate is the particularly alarming stat.

BA had Eveland as the Brewers 7th best prospect last year, so, clearly he isn't as well regarded as Billz. Or, at least, wasn't then.

Over 380 IP in the minors (214 in AA and AAA), Eveland's peripherals are HR9-0.40 BB9-2.72 K9-9.02 WHIP-1.16. He turned 23 a month ago. He's thrown more than 130 IP each of the last three years.

Looks pretty good to me.

Also, I think we should call this trade the regfairfield gambit: trading the great catcher and keeping the merely good one.

Eveland is probably comparable to Hong-Chih Kuo as a pitching prospect. He throws pretty hard from the left side, he has a short, thick build, and there are questions about whether he should be a starter or reliever.

I just saw a few friends that I've enjoyed several Dodger games with over the years. I had not seen them in about 6 months. When the subject of the Dodgers came up, they were all unanimous in their opinion that letting Drew go was a great decision. Their opinions were based on their observations that Drew had several big RBI opportunities during the playoffs last year, and he "choked." I was like...you've got to be kidding me.

Kuo without the injury history. Fantastic.

Zips projections from what may or may not be the starting lineups of the Dodgers and D'backs, this year, grouped by position.

RF Loney/Quentin .297/.351/.434--.262/.361/.472 (bonus: Matt Kemp .292/.342/.478)
CF Pierre/Byrnes .299/.342/.385--.265/.323/.462 (bonus: Chris Young .255/.336/.525)
LF Ethier/Hairston .296/.366/.463--276/.334/.522
3B Tracy/Betemit .262/.328/.451--.286/.349/.465 (bonus: LaRoche .274/.349/.443)
SS Furry/Drew .286/.358/.431--.278/.335/.467
2B Kent/Hudson .272/.352/.473--.280/.348/.440
1B Nomar/Jackson .288/.354/.469--.285/.372/.429
C Martin/Snyder .279/.359/.432--.241/.325/.392

D'backs out OPS the Dodgers in five of the eight. Six if Young plays left, and Hairston goes back to 2B (wait, one, two, three. . .yeah; six; wait, right? Six?).

New post up top.

138 That seems to be a very generous projection for Hairston. You sure you were looking at the right guy?

Plus, you switched the third basemen, so it's four out of eight unless you only switched the names and not the stats.

I was shocked by the Hairston projection, but, looking at his minor league numbers, maybe I shouldn't have been (and, maybe it's just Jerry vs. Scott conflation). I did switch the 3B names (oops), but the numbers are in the right place. Still five.

Dodger ZIPs: http://tinyurl.com/y3toey
D'back ZIPs: http://tinyurl.com/yh98v6

(The Pierre numbers are on the Cubs page)

"Colletti has committed 5yrs 62mils combined to Nomar/Pierre.

Would it not have made more sense to attempt to resign Drew to 5/62, and just include another 2yr out for him? "

No, it would not, because Drew hasn't yet proven he's worth that kinda money, mainly because he can't stay on the field or produce enough to be worth anywhere NEAR that kinda money. I'm glad he's gone.