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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Shrug?
2006-11-25 15:30
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

This might have also been titled "Wasting Time on a Saturday."

The chart below lists the number of times Juan Pierre accounted for X number of bases in a game in 2006, adding together his total bases on singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, hit-by-pitches, stolen bases, sacrifice flies and sacrifice hits, and subtracting caught stealings and double plays - all on a daily basis (thanks to Baseball-Reference.com).

Bases-per-game	-1	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
April		0	7	4	6	2	1	2	1	0	0
May		2	7	6	4	7	2	0	1	0	0
June		0	2	11	6	3	1	2	0	1	1
July		0	4	6	1	7	1	3	3	1	0
August		0	3	9	4	4	6	1	1	0	0
Sept.-Oct.	0	5	7	7	3	2	4	1	0	0
Total		2	28	43	28	26	13	12	7	2	1
I included sacrifices because, whether or not you would have agreed with the choice to give up an out to advance a runner in a given situation, the fact is that Pierre did deliver a base - it's not his fault that the bat was taken out of his hands. At the same time, I did not include productive outs, which I did not have handy on a game-by-game basis, so you have to take that into account somehow.

Anyway, in April, for example, Pierre netted out at zero bases in seven games, one base in four games, and so on. In May, Pierre had two games in which he grounded into a double play without generating any bases, thus sending him into negative territory. Pierre's best game was June 30, when he walked, singled, doubled, tripled and stole a base in a 6-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox.

I'm not expecting this chart to lead to some grand conclusion about Pierre. It's really for subjective purposes. Depending on what your expectations are for Pierre, you can simply look at the chart and tally how many games you would have come away shrugging, satisfied, elated or disappointed at his performance.

It was right when I began looking at the finished product that began musing that it might not have been worth the effort. After all, not all of those 1s have the same meaning, nor should one expect a batter to have a good game every time out. It is baseball, after all. (And, to be sure, defense is not factored in.)

Pressing on, though, I decided that for me, two bases in a game was the shrugging point - neither good nor bad. That left me with the following:

  • 73 disappointing games
  • 28 shrugs
  • 61 happy games

    If your shrug point is three bases:

  • 101 disappointing games
  • 26 shrugs
  • 35 happy games

    Or, we could compromise and shrug at 2s and 3s.

  • 73 disappointing games
  • 54 shrugs
  • 35 happy games

    Again, no great meaning implied, especially without comparing it to other players. (I expect Pierre's chart would compare to the charts of other ballplayers in similar fashion that his rate stats would compare to those of other ballplayers.)

    I guess the impulse that drove me to do this chart was to reinforce the very simple notion that a ballplayer who averages two bases a game doesn't get two bases every game. I just wanted an idea of how many days Pierre was likely to generate good headlines or not.

  • Comments (152)
    Show/Hide Comments 1-50
    2006-11-25 16:05:13
    1.   Suffering Bruin
    What's this? I'm first? Ah... to be first!

    I, for one, have come to the conclusion that this signing is bad, bad, bad. I do not base this on any kind of logic (requires thought) or research (it's why I like reading Jon and Bob and others) but on the tried and true principle of "what would I do were I in control?"

    I wouldn't have signed Pierre. But then, you all might remember me as the guy who wanted to start Choi so I don't know. I really don't. My best friend defended the Pierre signing and one of things he said was "we don't know what's going on and maybe there's a larger reason for this." Who am I to say he's wrong? I remember thinking years ago Phil Bradley was going to be a star--a SABR dream was Bradley. Unfortunately, Bradley was apparently a bit of a pill (when informed he was among the league leaders in HBP, one player told Bill James, "Yeah, and I bet half of them were former teammates."

    I can only hope that Pierre will prove to be a bargain in the coming years but I fear that will only happen if every salary in baseball quintuples.

    Oh yeah--for a guy wasting a Saturday, that was a heckuva post, Jon.

    2006-11-25 16:06:50
    2.   Suffering Bruin
    In my race to be first, I made several editing mistakes in post 1. I need to mention this in case my students are reading.

    My students? Reading?

    Okay, never mind.

    2006-11-25 16:36:07
    3.   Bob Timmermann
    Will we be seeing this chart repeated every Saturday after Thanksgiving for the next five years?

    Can there be a comparison chart to a similar player? Although Pierre is nonpareil.

    2006-11-25 17:30:58
    4.   King of the Hobos
    MinorLeagueSplits.com has released defensive stats for most of the minor leaguers (I think it's a work in progress, some guys like Hu and JtD are missing). It's based off David Gassko's "range" stat (read about it here: http://tinyurl.com/bwtq9). No pitchers, catchers, or first basemen are included. Here are some Dodgers of interest; the stats are +/- plays overall, per 150 games, and innings played respectively:

    Laroche3B: +8 +11 1002
    LoneyRF: 0 -5 38
    LoneyLF: -3 -78 67
    KempRF: 0 0 65
    KempCF: -1 -2 715
    DYoungLF: -20 -90 304.3
    DYoungRF: -17 -30 784
    Abreu2B: +16 +22 994
    HuSS: Not available?
    Dewitt2B: +12 +20 815
    Dewitt3B: +5 +19 350
    PaulRF: -33 -46 993
    DeJesusSS: -27 -38 991
    JBell3B: -18 -56 447

    Good news for Laroche, Abreu, and Dewitt, but it looks like the other guys are having problems according to this system.

    2006-11-25 17:46:16
    5.   dsfan
    For what it's worth, the scouting scuttlebutt is that Dejesus is a good-fielding SS, even better than Hu.

    The numbers on Abreu match the scouting reports. So do those of Young.

    As for Kemp, it's said that he's not a good route runner in CF and probably will be too large to play out there daily but should grade out as a pretty good RF.

    2006-11-25 18:05:48
    6.   bigcpa
    Jon- A few years ago I tinkered with a similar concept which I called Batter QS. I think I defined it as 2 times reaching base OR 2 total bases. Assuming 5 pa's that would be at least a .400 OBP or .400 SLG. The OBP bar is set high but I figured reaching base once is not much to brag about. Not sure I got much out of the exercise. Everytime I've tried to measure streakiness vs. consistency I don't get too far.
    2006-11-25 18:09:12
    7.   dsfan
    These are just theories, hunches, but in the wake of the many Pierre posts, a fascinating collection, I might add, maybe some people will find these thought provoking:

    Theory: Wrigley Field was the wort possible hitting environment for Pierre, who needs extra outfield space to land his ping shots.

    Pierre didn't chose to become a Cub. He was traded there. He had signed a multi-year deal with the Marlins, whose ballpark was a better fit for him.

    Taking it a step further, perhaps Pierre got fouled up hitting in Wrigley but made some adjustments as the season unfolded. Seems came on pretty strong in the final 2-3 months. Of course, Pierre was really crummy for the Marlins in 2004, so maybe adjusting to Wrigley wasn't an issue, but I could see it being a nightmarish place for him, particularly when trying to impress a new club in his walk year.

    Theory: Players that rely heavily on footspeed tend to plummet once they lose a half a step.

    All the more reason to be pessimistic on Pierre, a singles hitter who at 29 presumably is in the midst of losing some precious footspeed.

    Tidbit: At ages 33 and 34, Dave Roberts had the best seasons of his career. Roberts, also a lefty who relied greatly on footspeeed, is a similar hitter -- entering 2005, he was no one's idea of a slugger yet he slugged .428, well above his major-league norm.

    Pierre is as fast as Roberts was at age 33, safe to assume. He's about 2-3 inches taller, giving him more leverage and has had more hitting success in his career than Roberts had entering age 33. Is it that crazy to think he can come up with two career-best years during the next five years? And even if doesn't, let's say he regularly approaches his 107 OPS-plus of 2004. Wouldn't that be acceptable?

    I realize the great body of evidence is that of Pierre being a (harmless) out machine. I also realize trends suggest that will continue.

    2006-11-25 18:10:54
    8.   dsfan
    7

    Make that Pierre was really crummy for the Marlins in 2005.

    2006-11-25 18:38:20
    9.   Andrew Shimmin
    If Pierre can OPS+ over 100 for the next two years, while rocking the 'stache, I'll say nary a word a'gin him. He can be the 2009 Odalis trade, which, while irritating, I don't care very much about.
    2006-11-25 18:39:21
    10.   Louis in SF
    Yes the Pierre postings are interesting, and DS understand the comments about Roberts declining and the need to move him to left field. However, since Roberts is looking and seems to be ready to sign a three year contract at a cheaper dollar figure, the decline that many of us also see with Pierre will be more difficult to deal with. Roberts on the other hand would only have 3 years to deal with.

    A potential good thing that might happen with Pierre for the Dodgers is the fact that he can work with Maury Wills. Wills should be able to help Pierre learn how to steal and read pitchers better. He had a great impact on Roberts.....Jayson Stark on ESPN radio last night really slamed the Dodgers for the signing. I don't know who will be available in 2008 or 2009, but what I will be upset about is if I hear that we can't spend any more on pitching and have to settle on mediocre arms. Our bullpen at this stage is far from set.

    2006-11-25 18:52:56
    11.   Jon Weisman
    I've been waiting, I don't know, 10-20 years to see Wills have a real impact on a player. I'm sure Pierre will do fine with or without Wills' help, but I sure don't see that Wills has helped too many Dodgers improve their basestealing or bunting that didn't come in with great skill to begin with.
    2006-11-25 18:59:13
    12.   Sons of Steve Garvey
    Vernon Wells and Andruw Jones will be FAs after next year, although they're both probably going to get something in the range of 6/110-8/160. If Carlos Lee can get 6/100 - and the Giants supposedly offered him more, 6/112 - then what are good-hitting, good-fielding CFs worth?
    2006-11-25 19:02:11
    13.   50 years a Dodger Fan
    Our options suck: Colletti can do nothing (which is unlikely), or he can sign Gonzales or Bonds, the only so-called power hitters still out there. Talk about a rock and a hard spot....
    2006-11-25 19:08:52
    14.   Andrew Shimmin
    2007 ZIPS

    Ethier .296/.366/.463
    Gonzo .259/.353/.435

    Bonds isn't available yet, and wouldn't be worth much (no one in any way comparable to him played at 43). So. I hope Colletti doesn't go for Gonzo. Though, I would have thought so even without the projections.

    2006-11-25 19:19:21
    15.   bigcpa
    13 Burrell and Dunn are still out there. Wayne Krivsky said he wants to trade off HR's and K's for AVG. The league leader in AVG, 15th in HR should be able to accomodate him. Ethier for Dunn with a 3 year extension. Dunn played 161, 160, 160 the last 3. The press release writes itself!
    2006-11-25 19:25:12
    16.   50 years a Dodger Fan
    But Gonzo is a veteran!!!!!
    2006-11-25 19:26:47
    17.   StolenMonkey86
    hey Bob, just noticed Johnny Estrada is a Brewer now

    http://tinyurl.com/yn7awv

    2006-11-25 19:28:55
    18.   Andrew Shimmin
    Colletti must have any ego at all. Why would he want to bury his second best candle under a thirty-nine year old bushel?
    2006-11-25 19:39:38
    19.   twerp
    10 Did Roberts acknowledge Wills' help, did some media outlet say so, or what? Not challeging, just want to know. Thx.
    2006-11-25 20:27:29
    20.   StolenMonkey86
    19 - "Maury Wills once told me that there will come a point in my career when everyone in the ballpark will know that I have to steal a base, and I will steal that base. When I got out there, I knew that was what Maury Wills was talking about." -Dave Roberts

    http://www.baseball-
    reference.com/r/roberda07.shtml

    2006-11-25 23:06:19
    21.   blue22
    15 - Geoff Jenkins is readily available too. He could be the lefty between Nomar and Kent.
    2006-11-26 06:10:04
    22.   mountainmover
    Jon,

    Document all the major league players like you did above (maybe even make happy or frowny faces for them) and publish it in a book. Chrage real money for it. They will buy it. After a few years of analysis, I'll have an opinion.

    2006-11-26 08:32:56
    23.   LAT
    Did anyone see this blurb from Fox.com:

    "The Dodgers are looking for a slugger and could make a trade to get one. While Boston outfielder Manny Ramirez is on the market again, a better fit would be a player who could also provide defense. Seattle third baseman Adrian Beltre, the ex-Dodger, comes to mind."

    http://tinyurl.com/y7qoc2

    2006-11-26 09:10:31
    24.   LAT
    Saw Borat yesterday. Funny stuff but an ugly satire on many facets of our country. The college students in the RV, young men who are supposed educated spewing racism and sexism was perhaps the most depressing. The scene at the socialite dinner with the preacher may have been one of the funniest things I have ever seen. Could have done without the wrestling scene. . .just nasty. I highly recommend the movie but remember it is a satire.
    2006-11-26 09:24:17
    25.   Suffering Bruin
    An interview with Bob Ryan, stolen from Bronx Banter. This is an excerpt but read the whole interview--good stuff.

    ...My pet peeve is a continual stream of one-sentence paragraphs. That is not writing in my book – I would reject it if I were an editor... One-line paragraphs are not writing – it's an easy device – it's just illogical. Anything is okay on an occasional basis – I will lay one down at times but not 27 or 35 of them and you know there are people who do that.

    Posted without further comment from yours truly.

    2006-11-26 10:09:35
    26.   Bob Timmermann
    I disagree.

    I write paragraphs as long as I need.

    I get my point across.

    Indeed!

    2006-11-26 10:15:53
    27.   Bumsrap
    23 Yes I saw that. I would be for getting Beltre if that is what it takes for Colletti to stop over GMing and if the price were only Betemit, and if Nomar wasn't going to play third anyway.

    Whenever anyone puts three ifs together as a condition for doing something usually I would imagine, doesn't expect it to happen or doesn't want it to happen.

    Seattle would have enough money without Beltre on their payroll to overpay Schmidt or Zito instead of the Dodgers doing that.

    My preference is to have Nomar play third. If he hurts himself, so be it. Loney should be the first baseman, thick and thin and throughout 2007.

    I would start the season with Ethier in left and feel good about having Werth, Garciapara, and Repko available if Ethier's 2007 looks more like 2006's September and elated if his 2007 looks like 2006's July.

    I may be in the minority on this but just the same I would start 2007 with Kemp in right.

    I look forward to July 2007 when the need for Pierre is gone and he is traded.

    2006-11-26 10:16:37
    28.   LAT
    What's next?

    P
    l
    a
    s
    c
    h
    k
    e

    s
    u
    c
    k
    s
    .

    2006-11-26 10:19:27
    29.   wkk
    I was checking out Jon's IMDb entry, and came upon this little tidbit. Today is Jon's birthday. Happy Birthday Jon!
    2006-11-26 10:19:36
    30.   Bumsrap
    I think posts on message boards should mostly be one sentence paragraphs.
    2006-11-26 10:30:34
    31.   Bob Timmermann
    29
    Other famous baseball players born today:

    Chuck Finley
    Harold Reynolds
    Mike Moore
    Bob Walk
    Jay Howell
    Jorge Orta
    Larry Gura
    Richie Hebner
    Jeff Torborg
    Bob Elliott
    Lefty Gomez
    Fred Tenney
    Hugh Duffy

    2006-11-26 10:31:57
    32.   njr
    Happy Birthday Jon! Thanks as always for everything. Esp. for helping us get through what I will be referring to as "the Pierre thing".

    Also-- a late happy thanksgiving to all DTers. I just recovered from all the cooking and got back on line.

    2006-11-26 10:41:49
    33.   Jon Weisman
    Thanks, guys. I'm the same age as Jack Benny.

    I feel that in regards to Bob's list in 31, it's not irrelevant to note that today was also Charles Schulz's birthday.

    2006-11-26 10:43:47
    34.   Bob Timmermann
    Jon's birthday is one of unease as you expect the one that follows.

    I'll be celebrating what I believe to be one of the most anticlimactic birthdays in one's life in a few weeks.

    2006-11-26 10:48:49
    35.   Marty
    41 eh? I'll be 51 in a few weeks too.
    2006-11-26 10:55:57
    36.   Bob Timmermann
    I'm going to turn 41 on a Monday (not tomorrow)

    That just seems so apropos. A blah birthday on the worst day of the week.

    2006-11-26 10:59:05
    37.   Bob Timmermann
    Hey, what do you know, my birthday is on a Sunday this year, not a Monday. Now life is worth living!
    2006-11-26 11:11:06
    38.   Jon Weisman
    I'm turning 40 on a Monday. Bleah.
    2006-11-26 11:14:09
    39.   Sam DC
    Well Jon, the Mayor, Police Chief, and Baseball Manager for Washington DC are all younger than you (and me). Happy Birthday.

    (Actually, the police chief may be a co-ager.)

    I share a birthday with Larry Bird.

    2006-11-26 11:18:17
    40.   Marty
    I share a birthday with the Epiphany. If you believe that sort of stuff...
    2006-11-26 11:23:17
    41.   Louis in SF
    Jon, happy birthday as well. I looked up Roberts stolen bases and caught stealing under Wills tutelidge and it seems that while with the Dodgers there was a minor improvement. Thanks for the other blogger who acknowledged the quote of the need to steal at any time-Roberts and him crediting Wills. Pierre seems to get caught a higher pecentage of the time, so hopefully Wills can help....The Fox story, Ben Maller seems to be rumors, I don't see why the Dodgers at this point would get Beltre. LaRoche, I believe will have to prove himself in Triple A next year and they still want to give WIlson B a chance.
    2006-11-26 11:23:22
    42.   Bob Timmermann
    40
    You know when you're born on the 12th day of Christmas, people give you so much stuff. Lords a leaping can't be returned and the swans a swimming just leave crap all over. At least you can cook up the eggs from the geese a-laying.

    But the best part would be
    FIVE GOLDEN RINGS

    2006-11-26 11:25:56
    43.   50 years a Dodger Fan
    You didn't ask but my next birthday is Tuesday and it will be my 66th. I share it with these celebrities:

    Elisha Cuthbert
    Bo Jackson
    G. Gordon Liddy
    Dick Clark
    Winston Churchill
    Mark Twain
    Jonathon Swift

    Now there's a mixed bag...

    2006-11-26 11:29:18
    44.   Bob Timmermann
    I always refer to Elisha Cuthbert, G. Gordon Liddy, and Mark Twain as "The Big Three."

    Would G. Gordon Liddy ever get caught in a cougar trap?

    2006-11-26 11:40:05
    45.   Claire Malone-Evans
    If someone was to mail a birthday card to Vin Scully (Nov. 29) should they use a new Mel Ott stamp or a Roy Campanella stamp on the envelope?
    2006-11-26 11:41:34
    46.   Bob Timmermann
    45
    It's got to be Mel Ott. That was Vin's childhood hero.
    2006-11-26 11:52:49
    47.   natepurcell
    so the dodgers actually put in a significant bid for matsuzaka even though colletti said they werent going to?
    2006-11-26 13:12:39
    48.   das411
    Sweet! Happy bday Jon, I'm sure everyone who posts here is thankful you put so much time and effort into this place.

    24 - My dad + bro + sister saw that movie last night and the two of them who had not seen it before were both angry that it was such a stupid waste of 1:20 and $8. My brother who had seen it before, came out saying he was also angry the first time but after a second showing you get over the initial shock and can beter appreciate how well-set-up a comedy it is.

    Of course that does not take into account the fact that my dad was convinced that everybody Borat talks to in the movie were actors.

    And then the mom and I went to see "The Queen" which was quite good. Quite.

    2006-11-26 13:41:17
    49.   Michael Green
    Happy Birthday, Jon. I've made it to 41 without too much damage!

    And if we send Vin a card, we also should send one to Ross Porter. They share November 29, though Vin is 11 years older.

    We also might send a card to Frank McCourt saying, "Thanks for firing Ross and keeping Steve Lyons. If the goal was to make it impossible to stand a telecast without Vinnie, you achieved it."

    2006-11-26 13:58:21
    50.   overkill94
    Happy b-day Jon! Too bad the only Dodger I recognize from your b-day list is one of my least favorite - Jay Howell.
    Show/Hide Comments 51-100
    2006-11-26 14:19:42
    51.   Bob Timmermann
    50
    What about Jeff Torborg and everyone's hero: Jorge Orta?
    2006-11-26 14:40:04
    52.   Benaiah
    Happy Birthday Jon! This website makes being a Dodger fan, especially one who doesn't live in LA, exponentially more fun. I have tons of admiration for the fact that you managed to stake out a classy, intelligent and respectful corner on the internet which is far too often populated by the loudest, lowest common denominator.

    PS Screenjam rocks too.

    2006-11-26 14:55:00
    53.   3upn3down
    Inspired by Bob's post at 2, here is a comparison. I tried to find a player that rivaled Pierre's (gulp) qualities. A Speed merchant CF with no sock, and a weak arm.

    So the proxy I choose was Tom Goodwin in 2000, who I think we all can agree makes you vomit in your mouth a little bit. 2000 was the year we dealt Hollandsworth for him. Kevin Malone (who it would almost appear as if trying to make this analysis clean) made the trade right at the end of August, so for our purposes here, there is no month where Goodwin played for two teams. On July 30, Goodwin was with the Rockies. He made his Dodger debut on August 1.

    Because I think I'll have formatting issues, I'm just going to give the season summary. Let me know if you want the monthly details.

    On this season, Goodwin appeared in 147 games. 26 of the games where partials usually resulting in a disappointment or a shrug due to fewer plate appearances than normal. His stat line was .263/.346/.352 with 55 steals over 65 attempts.

    Using the 2=shrug format:
    74 disappointing games
    24 shrugs
    49 happy games

    Using the 3=shrug format:
    98 disappointing games
    16 shrugs
    33 happy games

    Compromising with 2&3=shrug format:
    74 disappointing games
    40 shrugs
    33 happy games

    So what is the value of this piggy back analysis to Jon's original? Good news and bad news I suppose.

    The good: we can expect more happy games from Pierre in '07 than we got from Goodwin in '00.

    The bad: the proxy is Tom freaking Goodwin.

    My conclusion: After spending the past hour thinking about Tom Goodwin, I need to go wash the filth off. To the showers!

    2006-11-26 14:57:01
    54.   3upn3down
    Miss typed above, although you could figure it out in the following sentence. Goodwin was traded to the Dodgers at the end of July, not August.
    2006-11-26 15:21:04
    55.   MSarg29
    Just to join in, I'll be turning 35 on Tuesday myself.
    2006-11-26 15:33:18
    56.   trainwreck
    Happy Birthday Jon, may you have great success and a nice piece of cake.
    2006-11-26 16:26:10
    57.   Andrew Shimmin
    I share my birthday with a mixed bag (Sly Stone, Ry Cooder, Andrew Jackson; but also Jimmy Swaggart, [unnamed Supreme Court Justice], Fabio), but a couple of great men died on my birthday: Julius Cesar and Lester Young.
    2006-11-26 16:31:58
    58.   trainwreck
    Christopher Meloni and Bill Romanoski share my birthday and I was born the day after Marvin Gaye was shot, so the news broke that day.
    2006-11-26 16:36:20
    59.   trainwreck
    *Romanowski
    2006-11-26 18:42:49
    60.   gpellamjr
    57 Caesar's questionable, since his death fell on that day on his own calendar. I share a birthday with, I think, William Shatner and Reese Witherspoon. No one important that I know of died on my birthday. But if I should become important, I would kill myself on my birthday.
    2006-11-26 18:43:59
    61.   gpellamjr
    So, uh, was there some impropriety between Drew and Boston before the opt out?
    2006-11-26 18:52:57
    62.   Andrew Shimmin
    60- Ooh, you left some off. Orrin Hatch and Pat Robertson, Marcel Marceau, Wolf Blitzer, Andrew Lloyd Webber and Stephen Sondheim, Colonel Klink and Chico Marx, plus many more share your birthday. You'll have to become more famous than the Hanna half of Hanna Barbera (also, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who has a very natty picture in his Wikipedia entry) to be the most famous death.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_22

    2006-11-26 18:58:20
    63.   Robert Daeley
    "Dodgers near deal with Wolf"

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6210860

    "The Dodgers, seeking to protect themselves against the possible loss of free-agent right-hander Greg Maddux, are the front-runners to sign free-agent left-hander Randy Wolf, FOXSports.com has learned."

    2006-11-26 19:02:53
    64.   gpellamjr
    62 Will do.

    I also have the great distinction of having graduated from SUNY Buffalo, the same as one Wolf Blitzer. Needless to say, when I watch The Situation Room, I am reminded of the fine education I received and am nauseated.

    2006-11-26 19:04:57
    65.   gpellamjr
    63 Why not? The guy was undefeated last year!
    2006-11-26 19:05:25
    66.   trainwreck
    63
    One year deal with option. Hey a move I like and can deal with.

    So I guess I am shocked.

    2006-11-26 19:08:34
    67.   Andrew Shimmin
    Wouldn't cost draft picks; Wolf's a type C free agent. He's been hurt the last two years, right? Was it TJ?
    2006-11-26 19:09:42
    68.   Andrew Shimmin
    Ah. I only had to read the article I'd already opened in a new tab to know the answer to my question. I hate when that happens.
    2006-11-26 19:14:27
    69.   trainwreck
    He has some good off-speed stuff for a lefty and can throw in the low 90's. A good risk.
    2006-11-26 19:15:59
    70.   gpellamjr
    Seems like a good move, so I won't hold my breath. Would a Wolf signing mean that Ned is giving up on Schmidt/Zito?
    2006-11-26 19:17:24
    71.   trainwreck
    I do not think so. I think he wants to get one of them and then deal a pitcher for a hitter.
    2006-11-26 19:32:17
    72.   StolenMonkey86
    Wolf had Tommy John on July 1 of last year. His command was a bit off (k/bb: 1.33 in 2006 vs 2.25 career), but granted that's right after surgery.

    Not only that, but with Wolf, LA could get some calls. From Wikipedia:

    Wolf has an older brother named Jim Wolf who is a Major League Umpire. To avoid a potential conflict of interests, Jim Wolf is not allowed to work behind the plate for games his brother pitches. While generally considered to do a fair job, Luis Castillo, who at the time played for Philly's rival Florida Marlins, accused Jim Wolf of showing bias on a close play at first base.

    2006-11-26 19:33:42
    73.   gpellamjr
    72 Finally! The universal anti-LA conspiracy will come to an end! All it takes is a little nepotism.
    2006-11-26 19:34:29
    74.   3upn3down
    Wolf went to Pepperdine and is a Northridge native if memories serve me right. I like the move. But be patient Dodger fans. When you look up second half performers, you see a photo of Erik Karros for hitters and Randy Wolf for pitchers.
    2006-11-26 19:36:59
    75.   Terry A
    The beauty and horror of Ned seems to be his ability to follow up a head-scratcher deal (Pierre) with a pretty decent one, such as this alleged Wolf deal. It may not be based in fact or reality, but it just feels like Ned has a knack for this roller coaster style of dealmaking. Maddux for Izturis? Great! Lugo for JtD? Ummmm...
    2006-11-26 19:49:57
    76.   thinkingblue
    then deal a pitcher for a hitter.

    Why do I fear for Chad Billingsley now?

    2006-11-26 19:52:19
    77.   trainwreck
    76
    Because of them losing confidence in him last season. I fear for Chad too.
    2006-11-26 19:56:50
    78.   thinkingblue
    77.

    I really hope the dodgers don't do something stupid like trade him. I mean, he's already a better pitcher than most in the majors, his potential is to be one of the best, he is under our control for a while, AND is being paid the minimum.

    2006-11-26 19:58:08
    79.   trainwreck
    Every bit of logic says do not trade him, but every bit of logic says do not give Pierre a five year deal.
    2006-11-26 20:03:04
    80.   LAT
    People I share a birthday with:

    William F. Buckley Jr.
    Irwin Allen
    Oscar Robertson
    Paul Tagliabue
    Ted Bundy
    Steve Yeager
    Cal Eldred

    People who died on my birthday:

    Lee Harvey Oswald
    Freddie Mercury
    Pat Morita (Mr. Miyagi or Arnold?)

    2006-11-26 20:05:38
    81.   twerp
    Amazingly sad example of how some in the South take college football as seriously as religion, if not moreso, and especially if drunk===

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6210860

    2006-11-26 20:06:01
    82.   Andrew Shimmin
    I don't see Billingsly's being dealt. If Loney really is going to play RF, what would they trade him for? They're not going to get better enough, somewhere else (without blocking LaRoche) to make it worth losing him. Penny's the one I'm worried will get the boot. And maybe not for something useful.
    2006-11-26 20:07:33
    83.   Andrew Shimmin
    81- Think you grabbed the wrong url.
    2006-11-26 20:09:20
    84.   twerp
    81 Somehow or other linked to the Wolf news. I try again:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/6209764

    2006-11-26 20:11:19
    85.   trainwreck
    84
    That is sad and pathetic.
    2006-11-26 20:12:24
    86.   Terry A
    82 - I agree. Penny seems Most Likely to be Dealt.

    Probably for middle relief. Or a shortstop.

    2006-11-26 20:17:38
    87.   Andrew Shimmin
    Football is sufficient, but not necessary, for such things.

    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2677249

    2006-11-26 20:17:59
    88.   trainwreck
    Why a shortstop?
    2006-11-26 20:21:34
    89.   trainwreck
    87
    Meet comment 85.
    2006-11-26 20:21:40
    90.   Terry A
    88 - Because Colletti has only acquired one so far this offseason.

    He has (Aaron?) miles to go before he sleeps.

    2006-11-26 20:27:25
    91.   LAT
    88. Cause shortstops are like crack to Ned.

    Furacl
    Nomar
    Robles
    Martinez
    Valdez

    2006-11-26 20:27:54
    92.   gpellamjr
    Ohio's 15th district still doesn't have a representative because the final vote tally was put off lest the vote counters have their Michigan Week plans encumbered. I should know tomorrow who my representative is in the House.
    2006-11-26 20:29:09
    93.   Uncle Miltie
    Happy Birthday Jon, I hope you're having a good one.

    Just got back to school and saw the news on Wolf, and all I can say is that I'm thrilled. Wolf was a big time sleeper in this ridiculous free agent market. He's a similar pitcher to Ted Lilly, but I think he's actually a bit better and before his TJ surgery, he was also more durable. Props to Ned if he got Wolf for $6-7 million a year for 2-3 years because I can see Lilly getting $10+ million a year over 4 years.

    2006-11-26 20:29:16
    94.   trainwreck
    I already forgot Nomar was a shortstop.
    2006-11-26 20:29:43
    95.   Andrew Shimmin
    89- Actually, I'm with the brawling party on this one. It's not so hard to wash one's hands. Usually a good shunning will suffice. The shunning impulse is unstable when mixed with booze, though.
    2006-11-26 20:33:22
    96.   Uncle Miltie
    Just read the article. One year deal with a club option. Seems like a good move to me.
    2006-11-26 20:33:26
    97.   Terry A
    91 - Don't forget Lugo!

    Like we could if we wanted to.

    2006-11-26 20:35:52
    98.   gpellamjr
    95 I take offense to that, as I do to everything you ever say.
    2006-11-26 20:38:59
    99.   Andrew Shimmin
    I guess we all know whose hand to not shake at the next DT outing.
    2006-11-26 20:41:31
    100.   gpellamjr
    99 I take that split infinitive as an insult.
    Show/Hide Comments 101-150
    2006-11-26 20:49:13
    101.   Bob Timmermann
    Randy Wolf went to El Camino Real, born in Canoga Park. He lead the Conquistadors to two City titles. He got a save and a win in two finals.
    2006-11-26 20:49:44
    102.   jujibee
    Not that bears much reputability, but a guy who posts on the ESPN board reported the Wolfe speculation earlier this morning. Apparantely his brother knows Randy and the Dodgers will announce the signing this week (already agreed upon) once he passes a physical.
    2006-11-26 20:55:50
    103.   Steve
    If you can find anyone who will bet you money on Kilroy, take it. A lot of it.
    2006-11-26 21:06:56
    104.   LAT
    Its three days after Thanksgiving and I can't stop eating. Anyone else suffering from this problem?
    2006-11-26 21:14:49
    105.   Andrew Shimmin
    To, without any good reason, take offense at a simple split infinitive shows just what kind of sick mind we're dealing with (any thoughts on ending a sentence with a preposition? Go ahead, show yourself for what you are!). Non-handswashers take note: this is your fate.
    2006-11-26 21:14:51
    106.   twerp
    41 A bit late responding to this, but FWIW I posted Thanksgiving about Dodger base-stealing success rates. Comment #16, Thanksgiving thread.

    You'd think Wills would have the all-time best SB percentage for the Dodgers. Actually, not. Davey Lopes does, .831. Willie Davis' .7427 also is slightly higher than Wills'.741.

    I'd really like to know how Lopes managed to outdo Davis and Wills.

    I theorized that since Wills was so much of what passed for the Dodger offense in his day, he may have taken more chances than wise...a version of taking a bunch of CS for the team. Just a guess. Wills had quite a few more SB attempts than Davis or Lopes.

    But Wills' 104 of 113 in '62, .888 success rate, should get anyone's attention.

    2006-11-26 21:17:08
    107.   trainwreck
    Haha Baez is a set up man once again. Apparently agreed to a 3 year deal worth $15-18 million.
    2006-11-26 21:18:51
    108.   Andrew Shimmin
    107- Where?
    2006-11-26 21:20:29
    109.   LAT
    107. Link?

    Hard to think of anyone less deserving of $15-$18M. (or .15-.18 cents for that matter)

    2006-11-26 21:21:17
    110.   LAT
    One can only hope its with the Giants or Pods.
    2006-11-26 21:21:28
    111.   trainwreck
    http://tinyurl.com/yzpkqe
    2006-11-26 21:21:42
    112.   trainwreck
    It is the Orioles.
    2006-11-26 21:22:59
    113.   Bob Timmermann
    106
    I always thought Lopes had a better success rate than Wills because he was simply just a better baserunner. Lopes stole 47 out of 51 at age 40 with the Cubs in 1985.

    In 1978-79, Lopes stole 89 bases and was caught 8 times.

    2006-11-26 21:23:42
    114.   Andrew Shimmin
    Heh. Way to go Baltimore. So, at least the trade didn't cost us a proper first round pick. Just the sandwich and a second.
    2006-11-26 21:27:47
    115.   regfairfield
    So to recap the Orioles offseason:

    Trade a decent reliever for Jaret Wright
    Sign Jamie Walker
    Sign Danys Baez

    Who makes it to the playoffs first? The Orioles, Royals, or Pirates?

    2006-11-26 21:28:56
    116.   trainwreck
    As tempted as I am to say the Royals, the Orioles have some good pitching prospects that may save them.

    Aww heck, the Royals.

    2006-11-26 21:29:16
    117.   Andrew Shimmin
    Royals. Alex Gordon is the way, the Truth, and the light.
    2006-11-26 21:29:50
    118.   LAT
    Dannys Baez setting up Armando Benitez: potentially the most expensive and unproductive tandum ever.
    2006-11-26 21:32:08
    119.   LAT
    Darn Orioles. Messing up my plans for the Giants.
    2006-11-26 21:35:06
    120.   Steve
    Randy Wolf would be a nice back of the rotation pickup, and raise Hendrickson's likelihood of being DFAed, both good things.

    Nobody hates their fans like the Orioles. Is it true that of all the free agent contracts given out, that Juan Pierre's is the "best," relatively speaking?

    2006-11-26 21:38:03
    121.   regfairfield
    120 There's been some decent ones like the ones handed out to Edmonds, Mussina, Catalanotto, Alou, and a couple others. Nothing over two years has been anywhere near reasonable, however. Of course, that's true most years.
    2006-11-26 21:38:17
    122.   twerp
    113 The stats say Lopes was better, but why? Better at reading pitchers, getting jumps, being a faster runner, any or all these plus more?

    Ever see anything written on it? Thx.

    2006-11-26 21:42:28
    123.   Andrew Shimmin
    In our nation's capitol, with his morning coffee, SamDC will be saying a silent prayer of thanks that the Nats moved in to town and so spared his children ever having to root for the Orioles. Although that Markakis fellow might be something. I wonder if they'd take Penny for him. Or Penny and Tomko.
    2006-11-26 21:57:30
    124.   Bob Timmermann
    122
    Lopes was always described as a very scientific base stealer. I have the impression that he worked very hard at base stealing.

    Wills struck me as not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

    2006-11-26 22:17:51
    125.   Robert Daeley
    Apparently Randy has a fan club in Philly called the Wolf Pack that shows up at games in wolf masks and engages in some sort of dancing behavior. :) Found one pic:

    http://tinyurl.com/t8cnx

    2006-11-26 22:19:21
    126.   trainwreck
    125
    Funny, I told my friend earlier about Randy and he just messaged me saying we should start the Wolf Pack at Dodger Stadium.
    2006-11-26 22:28:30
    127.   das411
    Ohh boys boys, you have an awful lot to learn about Philly baseball if you are just now learning about the Wolf Pack.

    Nate, make him grow the goatee back before he signs, he'll look about 10 yrs younger again. Then all you have to do is bring in his favorite catcher with him...

    2006-11-26 22:41:47
    128.   bigcpa
    Active career K/9 leaders (starters)
    1. Randy Johnson (42) 10.766
    2. Kerry Wood (29) 10.358
    3. Pedro Martinez (34) 10.199
    4. Johan Santana* (27) 9.465
    5. Curt Schilling (39) 8.725
    6. Roger Clemens (43) 8.601
    7. Jason Schmidt (33) 7.963
    8. John Smoltz (39) 7.909
    9. Kelvim Escobar (30) 7.888
    10. Javier Vazquez (29) 7.812
    11. Ben Sheets (27) 7.790
    12. Chan Ho Park (33) 7.765
    13. Matt Clement (31) 7.753
    14. Roy Oswalt (28) 7.612
    15. Randy Wolf (29) 7.43
    16. Orlando Hernandez (40) 7.388
    17. Kevin Millwood (31) 7.289
    18. Mike Mussina (37) 7.210
    19. C.C. Sabathia (25) 7.206
    20. Bartolo Colon (33) 7.033

    per B-Ref

    2006-11-26 22:43:16
    129.   bigcpa
    And would you believe Randy Wolf's most similar player... Brad Penny! Most similar through age 29... Jason Schmidt. Good stuff.
    2006-11-26 22:43:18
    130.   Bob Timmermann
    Why does Johan Santana have an asterisk by his name? I demand explication!
    2006-11-26 22:55:05
    131.   trainwreck
    Maybe it means he was the current K leader at the time.
    2006-11-26 22:56:46
    132.   bigcpa
    I tried to delete all those. They indicate left-handedness. The cutoff is 1,000 IP which just misses Peavy who would be #5 and Zambrano who would be #7. Myers and Lackey would make the top 20 as well.
    2006-11-26 22:59:31
    133.   Bob Timmermann
    132
    Thanks.

    I have an OCD-like condition with unexplained asterisks.

    2006-11-26 23:00:59
    134.   Steve
    All the news stories about the Baez signing insist that it's contingent on Baez passing a physical, but I think that's a mistake. It's actually contingent on Mike Flanagan passing a physical.
    2006-11-26 23:07:24
    135.   Bob Timmermann
    I believe it's Jim Duquette who pulled the trigger on the Baez deal.
    2006-11-26 23:09:04
    136.   bigcpa
    134 Baez is not the ultimate GM litmus test. That honor belongs to Pedro Feliz and the emptiest 22 HR, 98 RBI season mankind has ever witnessed. Could Stoneman see him as a poor man's Aramis?
    2006-11-26 23:21:04
    137.   Bob Timmermann
    Pedro Feliz is the Juan Pierre of 20 HR hitters.
    2006-11-26 23:41:12
    138.   bigcpa
    Wow the Giants got sub .310 OBP from 4 positions last year- C, 3b, 1b, CF. That is hard to do.
    2006-11-27 01:03:52
    139.   natepurcell
    getting randy wolf on the one yr deal with 2nd yr option is going to be a huge bargain. Awesome move if we can get this deal.
    2006-11-27 01:05:21
    140.   GoBears
    136 Baez is not the ultimate GM litmus test. That honor belongs to Pedro Feliz and the emptiest 22 HR, 98 RBI season mankind has ever witnessed. Could Stoneman see him as a poor man's Aramis?

    Forget Stoneman. Worry about Colletti. And then worry about Scully rhapsodizing about a Feliz/Betemit platoon, as LaRoche gets traded to Tampa Bay for a backup ballboy who "really knows how to win and wants to be here." Oh, the humanity!

    2006-11-27 01:14:24
    141.   GoBears
    139. Just a rumor, still, right? I suppose we shouldn't get any happier about this than we should get angry about the latest rumor of a dumb deal.

    The one thing that strikes me about a Wolf deal is that it would all be about upside. Buying low in the hope that he can recover from the TJ surgery. Very DePodestarrific. It might not work out, but it seems a smart and affordable chance to take. Actually, the Bill Mueller deal was like that, and so was the Nomar deal. Colletti really is an enigma.

    An enigma wrapped in a mustache.

    2006-11-27 01:22:41
    142.   natepurcell
    141

    its still a rumor but i think its a done deal. I was browsing the espn board yesterday and some guy posted that the his brother is good friends with wolf and the dodgers signed him and it will be announced on monday.

    then today, rosenthal puts his article up about the dodgers and wolf. where theres smoke, theres fire. I was just afraif it was going to be a longer, 3yr deal with alot of guarenteed money. But i like the deal rosenthal reported very much.

    2006-11-27 02:38:52
    143.   thinkblue0
    the Wolf deal, if true, is great. Can't beat one year deal for a good pitcher.

    Penny, Lowe, Wolf, Bills, Kuo. Not bad.

    Hopefully now we just go out and get Schmidt, put someone in the pen and then move on to a LF.

    2006-11-27 04:05:33
    144.   Sam DC
    123 That's exactly what I did.

    It's interesting that the big position players FA signed early, but the big pitchers are holding back. Waiting for Matsuzaka to set the market, maybe?

    2006-11-27 04:43:33
    145.   Sam DC
    Tom Shales this morning used the word "tivo-worthy" in reviewing a show. Just noting the evolution of the term.

    (The show was "My Boys" and his conclusion was, basically, pretty good but "not Tivo-worthy").

    2006-11-27 07:35:44
    146.   Sam DC
    Going for the rare -- separated by three hours triple.

    XM rumored this morning that the teams chasing Drew are the Red Sox, the Orioles, and the Phillies.

    The Phillies? Has anyone else here been to a Phillies game when Drew appeared?

    Unrelated, this guy is keeping close track of the moving draft pick order and has written a pretty good primer on how the new rules are playing out. It's from the Nationals perspective, but useful to anyone, I'd think.

    http://www.farmauthority.dcsportsnet.com/

    2006-11-27 08:06:45
    147.   jakewoods
    The Philles in on Drew?

    I think they should actually check their sources before they report them.

    They'd hang him there for what he did in the past

    2006-11-27 10:00:34
    148.   DodgerJoe
    The Padres, A's and Phillies, along with the Dodgers were in on Wolf. He had lunch with the McCourts yesterday.

    Although other teams may have offered more years, he only wants one year so that if he pitches well, he could really cash in next year.

    2006-11-27 10:11:31
    149.   Jon Weisman
    New post up top.
    2006-11-27 10:12:11
    150.   StolenMonkey86
    148 - that makes sense, but is his option a player option or team option?

    As for Danys Baez, I'd expect him to be decent by July or so. Mazzone teaches everyone a changeup, and Baltimore will be in good shape once Baez stops throwing straight fastballs on 2 strike counts.

    Show/Hide Comments 151-200
    2006-11-27 11:48:16
    151.   3upn3down
    I'm glad my Tom goodwin analysis at 53 was able to stir up the conversation a bit!

    That is one hour of my life I'll never get back!

    2006-11-27 17:28:40
    152.   Jon Weisman
    151 - I appreciated it.

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