As for a blockbuster trade, I have no idea what to expect from Colletti. At all. The whole idea of signing Wolf seems unlike him: it's like he's going to buy low.

The Orioles should let Mazzone teach the changeup to a $500,000 pitcher.

If they had any in their system that were worth a damn, they probably would. I haven't looked at any of the recent system rankings, but the O's have been in the bottom third in recent years with good consistency.

But for someone like Drew, I'd imagine he's going for another five-year plan.

Clearly, Soriano didn't go short.

Meanwhile, piece in the SF Chron this morning says the Giants are one of the teams hotly trying to work a trade for Manny Ramirez. That seems unbelievable to me unless the Red Sox are really desperate to get rid of him - what on earth do the Giants have of value to trade? (Besides Cain and Sanchez, who won't be traded)

He does offer more hope than Hendrickson or Tomko though. Still, I dont think the Dodgers improve themselves much with this acquisition if it happens.

Being an armchair GM is like trying to eat all the leftover Smarties my kids got for Halloween. A pretty empty exercise.

Well, yeah. I'm not saying it's a good move, but I think he'll be a bit better, especially because his biggest problem, at least in LA last year, was delivering on an 0-2 count.

he started having elbow problems in the second half of 2003. when he was healthy, he was a very good pitcher.

Not coincidentally, 2003 was also the last year before the Phillies opened their new launching pad. Wolf's the most extreme flyball pitcher around. The move from the Philly park to Dodger Stadium will, I expect, bring his HR rate down to acceptable levels.

According to "Teen Wolf"*, that would be the BEST time to start him.

*The movie, not the magazine.

"A source close to the negotiations said the Phillies, Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals have made offers to sign Wolf for three years, with the deals ranging from $21 million to $24 million. The Arizona Diamondbacks had a similar offer on the table before they acquired left-hander Doug Davis from the Milwaukee Brewers."

A three-year, $8 million/per deal for a pitcher you aren't even sure can still pitch? Gagne/Boras must be ecstatic.

This off-season is like that old SNL bit about Jimmy Carter wanting to impose the metric system come true. It's like working in an office where all the clocks disagree. We don't know what's what anymore.

Hear me now and believe me later: Very shortly, perhaps within a few weeks, and certainly no later than next off-season, the Juan Pierre deal will look like an average paycheck for an average post-arbitration-eligible player, or maybe even a slight bargain. The four-year contract he got won't be the albatross it looks like now. If his performance declines, or a better option comes around, there won't be any angst about benching him or releasing him; nor will his contract be a barrier to trading him.

Randy Wolf must be thinking he's going to pitch so well this coming season, he'll easily command a $20 million/per payday after '07. Fine with me if he can do it.

Someone was gonna say it eventually - I figured I'd get it out of the way.

Well, hang on a sec. It might be true that the $9M/yr won't look that outrageous given the current market, but it's still $9M/yr that could have been added to a deal for a premier player (pitcher) while letting cheap kids play OF.

Even if $9M is the new $3M, it ain't the new league minimum.

Naw, thanks for the effort to make us feel better, Ratt, but I'm still bummed about the Pierre signing.

8 team playoff:
(8) Georgia Tech vs (1) Ohio State
(5) LSU vs (4) Florida
(6) Louisville vs (3) Michigan
(7) Oklahoma vs (2) USC

12 team playoff:
(1) Ohio State vs
Bye
---
(9) vs Arkansas
(8) Boise St.
===
(4) Florida vs
Bye
---
(12) Georgia Tech vs
(5) LSU
===
(3) Michigan vs
Bye
---
(11) BYU vs
(6) Louisville
===
(10) Oklahoma vs
(7) Wisconsin
---
(2) USC vs
Bye

Pierre's 2004 stats: 326/374/407 in 678 ABs, with 3 HRs.

But to that point: The logic of the market now says teams benefit from longer contracts. Which is the reverse of what everyone thought last off-season. The more money/fewer years model Colletti pursued in signing Furcal is now, in just 12 months, reversed.

Look, I'm bummed about Pierre, too, but with each passing day of looking at this player market, I get a little less bummed, not because I like Pierre any better, but because the fiscal significance of the deal seems to be diminishing each day.

According to Henson, for example, we're still in the hunt for Schmidt even if we sign Wolf. Evidently, the $9 million hole Pierre put in our budget isn't such a big hole as we thought. I agree, I would've preferred an outfielder with power, but there weren't any on the FA market after Soriano got signed, so that pursuit is now about a trade, where whatever the new player we get will be under an old-style contract.

In short: The Pierre signing was not a good thing. But it's also not that big a deal.

For 2007 and maybe 2008, I'm willing to believe that JP will be among the top 3 or 4 OFers in the system. But not past that.

We're splitting hairs (or rather, I am). We mostly agree. Maybe I just don't wanna feel better yet. I need time to grieve. And with a 5-yr deal, I'll have time.

I think Colletti has a higher opinion of Pierre than most around here do, but I don't think that Colletti thinks Pierre is as good as his salary would now indicate. I think that in the Pierre signing, Colletti is saying that he'd rather waste Frank McCourt's money than Logan White's prospects. I can live with that.

And, there isn't really a pure CF prospect in the organization. By my estimation, the best full-season OF prospects in the organization are Xavier Paul, Delwyn Young, Raglani, and Jaimie Hoffman, only Hoffman has played much CF, and none of them project as every center fielders.

I think we have to assume that the current regime doesn't have much confidence in Kemp working out as a CF, and in that case, we might actually need a solid preence at that position well into the future. The sad thing is that we might actually need Pierre (to maintain respectability) for the next couple of years becuase the next best option is probably Jason Repko.

A very simple, but powerful point. Good job!
vr, Xei

Besides, you don't pay a guy $45 million to be a platoon hitter.

The next best option is probably being paid by another big league club right now, ala the Andre Ethier trade. Just because the cupboard is bare (CF) right now doesn't mean there aren't good options out there. vr, Xei

http://tinyurl.com/y8zrvj

My most likely not to be a Dodger next year chart of starting pitchers now looks like:
1. Maddux
2. Penny
3. Billingsley
4. Guo
5. Lowe

With Wolf in tow, one of these five are most likely out (Maddux) and if we are going to make a run at another FA starting pitcher then one other could be traded. Or Ned could be trying to perfect the strategy of just having a complete pitching staff full of starting pitchers. vr, Xei

It will be interesting to see what happens to Billingsley or Kuo if the Dodgers get another starter.

I wish I could say Sarah is getting better with experience, but it doesn't seem that way.

48 Poor Sarah. She tries, but... yikes.

Unfortunately, we don't have Koufax, Drysdale and a higher mound to keep us in the game. A 1960's offense today will result in a lot of 5-1 losses.

54 I still think it should be Loney at 1st, Kemp in RF by mid-season, but that does sound like how things will start.

Are the Dodgers no longer interested in Zito?

I'm kind of surprised that "screws up" is approved usage without any sort of pun or clever reference.

I like the Wolf signing; finally a deal with some upside.

Would Pierre, Wolf, and let's say Cliff Floyd effectively replace Lofton, Maddux and Drew?

Pierre $9m
R. Wolf $8m
(Floyd $6.8m ???)
total= $23.8m

Drew $11m
Maddux $9m
Lofton $3.8m
total= $23.8m (2006 salaries)

I'd take Pierre over Lofton, if you disregard salaries. Would you rather have Wolf or Maddux? Can Floyd be signed for $6-8m and is he a suitable substitute for Drew (He's just as brittle as half the cost!)?

If this is an equitable trade (I don't think it is in talent or production, but if the salaries are about even, considering the market, it's good enough), with Nomar coming back, all the team has really lost is Lugo, who contributed absolutely nothing to last years team as the designated insurance policy.

I'll take that into the NL regular season with this lineup:

Furcal SS
Pierre CF
Nomar 1B
Kent 2B
Burrell LF
Loney RF
Betemit/Laroche 3B
Martin C

Even if you assume Wolf is able to replicate Maddux's 2006 with the Dodgers, it still leaves Cliff Floyd and J.D. Drew. Even if Floyd bounces back from his .727 OPS in 2006, he's still J.D. Drew minus 45 points of on base percentage and inferior defense. So, no Pierre, Wolf, and Floyd do not replace Maddux, Lofton and Drew.

This way you have some high average-contact guys interspersed with a couple power bats that do K a lot in Burrell and Betemit.
We have two rabbits at the top that can create havoc when they get on to allow the 3-6 hitters to see more fastballs.

Of course, our bullpen is still a work in progress at this time.

What an offseason!! It is only the last week in November.

If we can add Schmidt, it would allow us to trade Penny or Kuo for a real bat.

For the record, I could do without Burrell. I would like to see Rolen or Vernon Wells for some combination of Penny and Betemit/Ethier/Loney if we could sign Schmidt.

Doubtful.
Lugo's value on the field was negative for one thing.
Then there's the chance that two draft picks ever reach as high of prospect status as Joel Guzman? I doubt that too.

The bottom line is that I suffered through the '03 season while I watched our ERA hover around 3.00 as a team. Burrell would be great if that is all we can get.

If I am playing GM, then the Phillies definitely don't get Penny. Maybe Kuo and Meloan or some second tier prospect. I just would hate to see us overpay for Burrell. I would rather overpay for Wells in terms of an extension and prospects than overpay for Burrell.

That said, he will wait to sign until next year. If Pierre gets 40 mil plus, then he gets about 125-140 mil.

How many of White's high draft picks became upper-echelon prospects? Seems to me, Billingsley, Edwin Jackson, Loney, Edlbert are among those who did and I guess the jury's still out on DeWite. Small point: Having extra high-end picks allows you take more gambles elsewhere in the draft. Weren't Martin and Kemp drafted after the first few rounds?

I can see this deal breaking even -- but I'm probably less impressed by Guzman than others are.