Since Beimel jumped on the team at some point the Dodgers appear to be in something of a roster crunch. Either Kuo, Repko or Loney are going to be starting in AAA assuming Hendrickson gets a contract.

Well today has been terrible. Had to go to emergency room because I had an allergic reaction to medication. Second time in two days I have reacted to the medicine given to me.

But more importantly, Gagne is gone.

Cross-posting from the dead thread:

Eric on Eric: A Valedictory

I always felt a connection with Eric Gagne moreso than other Dodgers: We're about the same age, we share the same name, and people everywhere seem to think we look exactly alike. For the last five years, literally hundreds of friends, acquaintances, and perfect strangers have commented on this. I've accumulated quite the collection of Gagne figurines, photos, and memorabilia that people have given me as gifts because of the resemblance. (The givers are always surprised to find that they are not the first to think of this.)

The first curious event happened in Montreal in 2002, when I was milling around on the playing field before a Dodgers-Expos game. A kid called out to me from the stands: "Monsieur Gagne, can I have your autograph?" I wasn't wearing a baseball uniform, and I stand at least six inches shorter than Gagne, but that didn't seem to make a difference. (We are similarly rotund, alas.) As much as I'd have liked to -- just once in my life -- sign an autograph like a real big league star, I had to burst the kid's bubble and tell him the truth. Later that night, my alter ego blew a save in front of his hometown crowd, the third of what would be only six blown saves in his career as Dodger closer. (And let me tell you, whoever says Montreal fans don't care about baseball has never been to a game Gagne pitched there.)

Denver, a year later. I'm in the clubhouse interviewing Paul LoDuca when Shawn Green walks by and does a double take as he looks at me. Green, forever destroying my notion of him as an ultra-reserved guy, gets a silly grin on his face and proceeds to grab me by the arm and parade me around the Dodger locker room, introducing me to every single player as Gagne's cousin visiting from out of town. Some fall for it, some don't, but a good time is had by all.

Cincinnati, 2006. I'm sitting at Ethier's locker doing an interview when I hear a disembodied voice from behind me: "Hey, it's Gagne!" This time it's Kenny Lofton playing the Shawn Green role. Lofton's upset that the resemblance is imperfect because I'm dressed in my journalist uniform instead of a Dodger one. So he asks my hat size and dispatches clubhouse guy Mitch Poole to fetch me a Dodger cap. Now that I'm properly attired, Lofton prances around the locker room with me, showing off his new discovery. Since no players are left from the 2003 team except Gagne himself, nobody remembers that Shawn Green has already done this. My attempts to return the cap are rebuffed, my journalistic ethics compromised, but again, a good time is had by all.

So adieu, Monsieur Gagne, my Dodger lookalike. Thanks for the Bugs Bunny changeup. Thanks for the fist pump and the cool-looking t-shirt. Thanks for caring enough to get ejected even when you were on the disabled list. And thanks for the free cap.

we share the same name

Then why do you use "Enders"...?

Guo at AAA would be a big waste to me. He was the team's 2nd best starter the last month of the season. As a starter he made a big step forward in cutting down his walks. He still tended to go deep into counts and that is something that needs to improve but talent wise he is up there with everyone else in the rotation. But given the salaries of the other candidates I'm a realist and don't expect him to start the season in the rotation (unless there is an injury). I can live with him starting the season in the bullpen, to shave some innings off of his arm, but sending him to AAA will not shave innings off of his arm and would be a big waste of talent. I know it's a rather small sample size, but check out his K/9 and K/BB as a starter in September (crunch time). vr, Xei

D4P did you hear UFC bought WFA so they now have Quinton Jackson, Herring, and other fighters?

I would really like to see Anderson shopped and allow Repko to stay with the team. I really think that he could be a solid player if he had the opportunity to start at least 80 or so games to show what he can do..

3 Some nice reflections, Eric. Thanks for sharing the memories.

6
Yeah. I was reading, though, that Rampage might fight under a separate promotion (WEC?) instead of UFC. But they'd be crazy not to rematch him against Chuck Liddell (assuming he beats Tito).

So today, BA came out with a list of GM "tools" that listed the best GMs in various categories: Trading, Finances, People Skills, etc.

Our boy Ned was nowhere to be found in any of it. Apparently his fellow GMs are not overly impressed. Kim Ng was given praise for her thorough knowledge of transaction rules, though.

10
Ned would be more likely to show up on a list of "Tool" GMs...

3 - Great post Eric.

10 Well, clearly the BA list was flawed. They didn't even have a category for best mustache.

It scares me that every GM doesn't know all the transaction rules.

Anderson is costing a little more than what Repko will cost so there is no financial incentive to move him and Repko (although not the same talent level) is like Todd Hollandsworth in the way that he got hurt right at the time when he could have become a regular outfielder.

Now with Pierre, Gonzo, Ethier all ahead of him, and Kemp nipping at the heels, Repko and Werth will be battling for one the reserve spots but with Loney and Anderson already filling some of the need for a reserve spot, if Werth shows any of his 2004 ability, I think Repko will be the odd man out come April.

8, 12 Thanks guys.

I wish I could undo 3 now, though. If I thought everyone would end up reading it twice, I'd have tried to write it a little better. ;)

15
I just have always liked Repdo as a player. I hope that he ends up catching on with someone else. The Cubs could do worse and we could use some middle relief.

I wish we could have given him a shot in center to see if he could put up 95% of Pierre's numbers at 1/20 of the cost.

15 I agree. I think Repko and/or Werth are on their way out of town. Too bad neither can play SS.

(Although didn't read that Merlin can play 2B? That would make him more valuable, too.)

from previous thread...
* 103 - that Pythagorean bit. I'm not buying that.

A team that allowed 600 runs and scored 600 runs would have 81 wins.

Team A prevents 25 fewer runs the following year: 600 runs scored; 575 runs allowed
This nets 84 wins

Team B scores 25 more runs the following year: 625 runs scored; 600 runs allowed.
This also nets 84 wins *

RS=625, RA=600 ... Win % of .5204
RS=600, RA=575 ... Win % of .5213

Not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless. A run scored < a run prevented when it comes to winning percentage. That was my point. It's true. vr, Xei

15
If that is the case, I would prefer to see Werth go. I don't have anything other than the games that I have watched with each player playing, but I can't see Werth as a defensive replacement in CF. Repko has that, a better arm, and more speed.

SAVE REPKO!!!

4 He lives under the name "Enders" in the Hundred Acre Wood.

9
I think having a second organization is just stupid. UFC does not have enough talent as it is. They should focus on building the UFC roster.

3 I get that Gagne look a like thing quite often (or did) myself. Going to Dodger games, people would yell out "Eric" and with it being my name and all, I always turned around or acknowledged them.

I had a guy ask me for my autograph and told him that he would be disappointed because I would have to sign it with the wrong hand (I'm a lefty). I also had a group of kids beg me to pose with them for pictures at a game.

If he's healthy, I'd take Werth over Repko in a second. I'm not sure how that ligament issue he had played out, but Werth has a very strong arm (former catcher). He's not as fast as Repko, but I don't think his angles and routes are quite as bad as Repko's, either.

The big difference is that Werth can, you know, hit.

19 - hey, thanks for responding. I did note in my calculations the slight difference that you calculated, but when factored against 162, that minute fraction was a wash.

However, if you "spread" the runs scored and runs allowed, you'll swing the wins one way or the other. Example:

Base 1: 900 runs scored; 500 runs against: wins: 124
A: 925 runs scored; 500 runs against: wins: 125
B: 900 runs scored; 475 runs against: wins: 127
preventing runs = more wins

Bast 2: 500 runs scored; 900 runs against: wins: 38
A: 525 runs scored; 900 runs against: wins: 41
B: 500 runs scored; 875 runs against: wins: 40
scoring runs = more wins

So the Braves did non-tender Giles, who is one of my favorite players. Given that Colletti has been known to target players specifically for the purpose of keeping them away from S.D. (Betemit, Wells), is there any chance we sign Giles?

I certainly hope so, anyway.

7 It's amazing how two people can see the same data and come to entirely different conclusions.

When I refered to the roster crunch, I already assumed Werth was gone, so you'd have to lose Werth and Repko off the 25 man roster.

Who do the Braves have for second, then? Wasn't Giles an All-Star? How bad did he get to end up non-tendered?

Surely he had trade value, no?

26
Wow, surprising. I heard the rumors, but I never expected it to happen. He will be a Padre or a Met soon.

I doubt he chooses the Orioles over those two.

25. Good point. Teams that score more runs than they prevent, should work to prevent more runs. Teams that give up more runs than they score, should work to score more runs (given a choice). vr, Xei

Eric, it was worth reading twice.

28 I'm guessing they didn't think he was worth the ~$5.5M he would have gotten in arbitration. In my view, either (1) Their estimation of his value is way off, or (2) They're punting the 2007 season, or (3) Both.

Will the Braves go with Prado or Orr at 2b??
vr, Xei

Does this mean Willy Aybar is starting for Atlanta in 2007?

If Giles slugs .380 again, then it was the right move since Aybar could easily replace those numbers.

But Giles' BABIP was way down this year, so that would give him a nice boost and push him more into the .285/.365/.420 range. You can't just dump a second baseman who can put up those numbers.

14 I think in most sports organizations, there are specialists when it comes to the arcane rules of the league operates, whether its roster and waiver rules in MLB and Salary caps in the NFL and NBA.

7. How about Robles and/or Young? They should be off the 40 man. They are replacement level players.

38 The 40 man is fine once Toby Hall goes tonight and since Osoria is gone (and I'd boot Hamulack or Jumbo Diaz way before Young), it's the 25 man that lacks room.

Yeah, we're fine on the 40-man roster now. The only question is whether or not we get anything in return for Hall by the end of today.

17 Pierre is a beneficiary of today's market but I don't think you can take 6 years of MLB production and say that a player who has never broken the starting lineup could produce at the same rate.

Now, is it possible that Repko would produce numbers sufficient to fill the need until Kemp takes the job away? Maybe, one of the detriments of this era in baseball is how salary is tied into performance.

22
I agree. I don't get the point of having a second organization, unless it's some kind of "developmental" league. But if so, why would Rampage be in it? Plus, most of the UFC is already a developmental league. Like you said, they have plenty of room to add new talent.

41
You are correct. There is no way to say that Repko would not produce a .230/.315/.396 year, but I have a blind spot for him. I think that we could have taken the chance on a Repko/Werth/Anderson platoon rather than spending the $44 mil on Pierre.

You know, it's never too early to start thinking about the next June draft, and after looking at various players available, I have decided that I would like to see the Dodgers use our first pick on Washington state HS pitcher Greg Peavey, and with our second pick, I would like us to take North Carolina HS pitcher Justin Poovey. They are both right-handed, both throw hard, and their surnames just seem to go together well in a way that I can't quite put my finger on.

44
I am on board with the Peavey/Poovey combo.

Where do you go to follow the upcoming draft?

43
1. As Ned stated, he had only one regular OF going into 2007. After Soriano and Lee, Ned wanted someone who played regularly on his roster and Pierre was the lucky one.
2. Repko has not shown he could play regularly, Werth missed the entire 2006 season and Anderson probably is best used in spots, and realistically, you could not bat them higher than 7th (outside of Anderson).
3. Finally, and I know I am going to lose this argument until the day I die, to me, once a guy signs, I rarely ever think about his salary.
4. If anything this off-season has showed, the McCourts are willing to spend the dough.

According to one baseball source, Ricciardi has floated to Wells a proposal of seven years and $126 million, the average annual value of which would exceed Soriano's contract with the Chicago Cubs (eight years, $136 million) by $1 million.
That's a pretty hard offer to pass up...

36 --

Interesting. Where do did you find his career BABIP numbers and those of other hitters?

46
All true, though I will say that when Green was hitting right around .220 in mid June a couple of years ago, all I could think of was his salary.

With the massive inflation of salaries and length of contracts, a good minor league system (cheap labor) is going to be all the more important. Not only important to have good young players, but important to use them. The difference between the salary of an average player and a player in his first couple years in the big leagues (Saito, Broxton, Billingsley, Ethier, Martin, Kemp, Loney etc...) has grown quite large. Also, good players that were locked up to long contracts a year or two ago have become great bargains. vr, Xei

49 It's like with Dreifort, its not as if he went Russ Ortiz on us, the man got hurt and then kept trying to come back. To me, he was a good Dodger who just got hurt too much.

50 - It's only going to be more important if budgets remain tight. But what's likely is that the inflation of contracts is a reflection of higher budgets, and so a good minor league system has the same importance - or even less importance to a GM competent at identifying quality veteran talent.

The spin on Giles is what does that say about Betemit? Couldn't he be taking over for Giles? That inability to hit lefties, well, the Braves had Betemit for 8 years. Apparently, they didn't think that a solution could be had. And the Giles thing isn't otherwise news, since there's been talk in Bravesland of replacing Giles for more than a year now. Such talk is just that much more spin re Betemit [i.e., the Braves made that trade with us for Aybar to get their replacement for Giles]. Hopefully, such will serve as just that much more incentive for Betemit to perform.

Fangraphs (on the Season Stats tab) keeps career BABIP, year by year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/

51
I never had a problem with Green or Dreifort. I just can't divorce the amount of money the player is making from their performance on the field (I was swearing to myself when Furcal was going through that rough stretch at the beginning of '06). I just hope that Pierre is considered a bargain by the time his 4-5 years come around. This is entirely conceivable if salaries keep escalating the way that they are.

While I feel as bad about the departure of Eric the Stopper as I once did about Mick the Hatch, at least we still have Eric the Ender...

52. Perhaps an ECON major could straighten us out on this one, but my example would have to be. I am not trying to prove anything, just trying to fish for some answers. If you have a player making the league minimum or somewhere near it, like Chad Billingsley ($400k per year) and a free agent pitcher who you just signed for market value, like Randy Wolfe ($8 million per year) who can give you similiar production, then you can save ALOT of money if you use the younger cheaper player instead of the older expensive player. Now, let's say instead of one of these good young pitchers you have two of them, like Guo ($400k? per year), instead of another pitcher who makes $8 million per (of which we have another one). You've saves yourself 16 - 0.8 = $15.2 million per year right there, enough to sign Soriano, Schmidt, Zito, take your pick. Then extrapulate this out on the free agent first baseman, center fielder and left fielder you signed for $7.5 million a piece. That's another ~$22.5 million, when you also have players making the minimum that could fill in (Ethier, Loney, Kemp, Repko etc...) well enough. With the spread between the league minimum salaries and what the 2007 free agents are getting more savings can be realized by using players making near the league minimum. I am not saying Colletti should've used league minimum salaries players at SP, SP, 1B, LF and CF. Just that the savings is greater than it was before. Way greater! Yes, it's true that budgets have gone up, so teams can spend more money, but absolute value between the cheap good young labor and the free agents have gone up too. Just because budgets are greater, shouldn't give GMs a free pass to overspend on players. A bad deal, is still a bad deal. The Dodgers are in great shape with all their "good" young talent. Having Wolfe and Gonzalez only sign for one year helps mitigate their large salaries. I am not saying what Colletti has done is good or bad, just that having the good young and cheap talent around is more important than it was before given the extra savings. But you need to use it. End of ramble (for now).
vr, Xei

Of all the saves he ever had, I'll never forget the time Eric Gagne saved Christmas.

57 - I agree that young, cheap talent remains valuable, and maybe in the end you're right, that it's more important. I'm no econ expert, either.

But this is still what I see, trying to use your example. The difference between peak salaries and the minimum is greater than before, but the ability to fit in peak salaries in the budget is also greater than before.

If I have Martin, then I don't need to go get a catcher. Great. But if I don't have Martin, I have the money to spend to go get that catcher. The catcher is more expensive, but my increased budget can handle it - the fact is, the catcher is more expensive because of my increased budget. So I still don't see a difference.

Today's budgets don't mean that GMs have a free pass to spend badly, but they don't mean they have to be more careful, either.

I think we agree on most of what's going on except for your conclusion. The extra savings don't mean all that much, because the increased budgets are the reason the extra savings are possible.

Why have budget sizes gone up so quickly?

New labor agreement?

57 When KC starts spending money, than perhaps Bud Selig can retire with a smile on his face.

When the Cubs, who notoriously did not spend despite their hidden revenue streams pays big bucks, then perhaps market forces are beginning to crack their already sold out games.

The Dodgers, like or not, should be a $100M+ payroll team, and they will be made up of the haves (vets at the peak or on the way down) and youngsters, the trick is to keep your vets commitments short even if expensive especially if you think that revenues will stay stable.

Since the bulk of the money tied up is only through 2008, I think the Dodgers have budget flexibility to compete now and in the future though I do think that next off-season may have to be less expensive in terms of signing free agents.

Neyer says baseball salaries go up about 10% per year. Some years, they hold, which means they skyrocket to compensate in others. Add labor peace, revenue sharing, and everybody has dollars to spend.

I just think the owners finally found out about CoinStar. All that loose change adds up.

60 From what I have read and heard, the biggest revenue stream has come from MLB.com, the most profitable site of all the official sports sites primarily due to the usage of the MLB gameday audio and MLBTV.

Combine that with a stable television package, merchandising and increased attendance, plus although salaries have increased, I think overall revenues kept pace.

64 From a 12/2/2006 Pittsburgh news article:

This offseason, all 30 teams -- including the Pirates -- received a check for $36.5 million that broke down to roughly $20 million for the national broadcasting, $6.5 million for the Advanced Media and, as a one-time bonus, $10 million from the sale of the Washington Nationals. The latter money stemmed from every team owner pitching in approximately $4 million to buy the Montreal Expos in 2002, then selling that franchise for $450 million last year.

And the growth is expected to continue this decade. The Advanced Media figure alone is projected by experts as reaching $20 million within five years.

The Pirates also benefit from revenue sharing. As part of MLB's attempt at creating more equity in payrolls, high-revenue teams are required to pay one-third of all locally generated revenues into a pool that trickles down to low-revenue teams such as the Pirates.

Last year, the Pirates were cut a check for $25 million. This year, it should be slightly more.

That means the Pirates will make a minimum of $61.5 million this year before a single ticket is sold for PNC Park. That can buy a whole lot of Jeff Suppan.

I think the Dodgers make about 12-15 million in local media and who knows what else from those signs all over Dodger Stadium.

So long Toby, farewell Jayson....
Per the Los Angeles Times

The Dodgers retained left-handed pitchers Mark Hendrickson and Joe Beimel by offering them arbitration by Tuesday night's deadline, and cut ties with injured outfielder Jayson Werth and reserve catcher Toby Hall by declining to make offers.

http://tinyurl.com/y8omo9

Would have been nice to keep Werth around, but I knew it was probably not going to happen.

67 It was probably a pretty difficult deal to make with both sides not having a lot to go by, the only reason I see Werth wanting to make a deal would be to be able to go to a MLB camp and get seen by scouts, now he has to go for a non-roster invitee status and hope to catch on.

I am saddened by the news on Gagne, and I really had kept faith that he would still be resigned:(

Now, going into this season I really believed Ned would fix the pen and probably try to make it into a strength but, are we even any better as we stand now?

Saito probably cant repeat
Broxton may get better
Miller could be an asset
Baez is gone
Bills/ Kuo ???
no Maddux

Gagne could have been a huge gain IMO even at a huge risk

Last week, I heard Jayson Stark say on the ESPN morning guys radio show that changes in the revenue sharing formula/allocation structure have been an important factor in the ability/willingness of middle market and smaller teams substantially bumping up their payrolls. But he didn't explain what those changes were or how the impact actually played out.

-----

Is that right that Gagne only blew 6 saves in his Dodger career?

Cloudy crystal ball dept:

I sincerely hope Gagne' s vision of how things will go for him in Texas works out better than how he thought things would go for the '06 Dodger pen. From Dodgers.com, March 1--

(Referring to Baez and himself) Gagne agrees: "If this is a 'situation,' it's a great situation, two guys who can close games, and Brazoban makes three. It's like having too many guys who can hit 70 home runs -- no such thing. We're building something big with our bullpen. It's sick. If everybody's healthy, we could have the best bullpen ever. Like the Nasty Boys, a band of closers."