We can't afford the Colletti-saves-face lineup: we just don't have enough offensive talent.

Kemp, Ethier, Gonzalez, Martin, and Loney must all be regular starters if we are going to win more games than the Padres for the division.

After watching the Dodgers game last night, Cole Hamels and Chuck Norris each went out and bought James Loney under-roos.

The Hardball Times has an article calling Depo "The best unemployed GM in baseball."

http://tinyurl.com/3b7c8y

Skipping the fact that Depo isn't actually unemployed, I gave up on it when I got to:

"The trade might've looked even better for the Dodgers had Hee Seop Choi not suffered injuries that derailed his career and ultimately headed back to Japan."

That's some careful research there, boys.

Has there been a single, definitive article written about DePo's fall from grace?

D. Lowe surpasses The Player in OBP- it was just a matter of time.

4 - I wrote one for the 2006 Hardball Times Annual.

6 - Is it online?

I think just an excerpt.

For all the usual reasons (small sample size, etc.), I've been trying to maintain some perspective and not engage in too much hyperbole regarding Loney's performance thus far. So I'll just confine myself to saying that James Loney bestrides the baseball world like a colossus, and that he's the paragon of all that is noble in the sporting universe.

But he's also enjoyed an increase in team payroll and an obviously higher tolerance from ownership for mistakes than DePodesta enjoyed.

To be fair, we really dont know that.
I'm sure McCourt is livid about the his money Ned spent on Pierre, Nomar, and Schmidt. Consequently, at the end of the year if the Dodgers have failed to make the playoffs---Ned might feel that low tolerance.

Paying two fired GMs for years they arent working for the Dodgers---might not seem economically feasible for the McCourts though.

3--Choi did get hurt when he was with the Red Sox last year. But I dont think he's in Japan.

Hee-Seop Choi is playing in Korea, although he is injured there. I believe it was a ribcage injury.

He plays for the KIA Tigers.

Heads up, Colletti will be on am570 with Rogan, Simers & tracy

3 He did get hurt with the PawSox, but it seemed like the author was implying he got hurt while with the Dodgers. It also appeared that the author thought Choi was from Japan, which isn't correct, either.

Went to the game last night with a friend who was bringing his daughter to her first ballgame. (D-backs fans, though). I was slightly alarmed at Lowe's 29 pitch first inning, but glad he settled down. One thing I like about Dodger games in Phoenix is that roughly half the crowd is Dodger fans.

Really great seeing Loney live and in person. I had the same reaction Jon did when Loney got his third hit: .500! I'm really happy to see him doing so well. Besides losing, I was most disappointed about Russell Martin. I mean, three (!) strikeouts? C'mon, and I was talking him up to my friend. Oh well, he'll get them next time.

All in all, a fun game, first one of 2007 I've been to. Going to a 51's/Sidewinders game in about a week. Who should I watch for?

I don't know what I did before DT. Jon always has a way of putting things in persepective...particularly after a loss.

I know what I did.. I used to go on the Dodger Board at E*.com . I think D4P was one of the guys who used to be there too. That place turned into a *. I appreciate you having a site like this, Jon :)

The more I learn about "sabermetrics", the

1. harder it is to believe that the Dodgers actually had Paul D. as their GM, and
2. harder it is to believe they actually fired him.

I'm guessing there are plenty of things that Depo knows about baseball that Ned doesn't. On the flipside, I doubt there's anything Ned knows that Depo doesn't (other than how to mingle at Christmas parties, etc.).

Hi everybody,
I like this series against Arizona, despite the loss last night (and despite their Graceless color commentator). I think the 2007 D-backs are a spirited team who will make the tight NL west race all the more exciting. The only thing I don't like about the upcoming game is its starting time... GMT + 2 where I live (Ma'ale Adumim, Israel) Uugggh.

I think the bottom line, regarding this series, is that even with a split I think the Dodgers did pretty well for their road trip. If a typical team plays well at home and .500 on the road, they're doing a good job.

I also think the Juan Pierre brouhaha is a little overstated. I mentioned before how the contract was a bad one, but it doesn't mean he's terrible. Some folks just seem to have it in for JP. I also think his fly ball tracking is improved since May. OPS is SLG plus On Base. There is no way you can expect a singles and doubles hitter to have a tremendous SLG percentage, so his OPS should be less than say... Babe Ruth by default.

10 I doubt McCourt is "livid about the money Ned spent on Pierre, Nomar, and Schmidt." I'm sure he's disappointed by Schmidt's injury and hoping for more out of Nomar and Pierre, but my guess would be that he understands that injuries and slumps are part of the game. I could be naive but the more I see of McCourt and Colletti the more I like. No owner or GM is perfect, and they are far from that, but I'm willing to actually give them the benefit of the doubt for awhile, until the trading deadline at least. :)

20 Just because a guy can't be expected to hit anything but singles, doesn't mean that it's not a bad thing that he can't.

On the bright side, he's not the worst player the Dodgers are running out there.

21 Hopefully he learned that lesson from 2005.

Anyone else listening to Colletti on the 570AM? Wow. His forthrightness always surprises me.

What's he saying? I can't really log on to the website right now.

And some of his comments are worrisome.

18 - Isn't mingling at Christmas parties an important function of a GM? Does the ideal GM sift through stats himself, or trust the staff he has in place to do those things for him? Do you trust the staff Ned has in place?

21 I think McCourt is fine with the team so long as he keeps selling tickets. I wasn't a very involved fan during the sale, and I had no idea Fox maintained the TV rights for 15 years. No wonder parking always goes up.

Schmidt I dont care about, thats split milk, but is anyone asking him about starting Kemp over The Player?

On Kemp:

"Luis Gonzalez was brought in to bridge the gap until Matt Kemp was ready. Matt's still not complete... he overthrew the relay man in Tampa is striking out too much on breaking pitches away."

I guess the .423 batting average is all luck.

20 - I don't care about Pierre's OPS, I care about his OBP. His OBP is terrible, and there's nothing that suggests it will improve.

25 - Oh god, tell us what he's saying.

26
It is quite possible and quite likely that someone very brilliant could be fired because they just didn't fit in.

Walter O'Malley couldn't stand Branch Rickey and eventually bought him out.

29

Someone please mention to him that that's the same thing as not bothering to make the throw and a pop-up.....

That's all he said about Kemp.

On Betemit:

"Betemit has been a huge frustration. I think he could break Bond's single season homerun record if he only gets one at bat a game. I don't know if it's a concentration thing...but when he has 4 at bats you wonder what's going on...He's the one player we have to decide how patient we will be...Of all the players we have, every third or fourth team calling asks for him but they don't want to give up anything to get him...since the batting coach change, Manny Mota's been working with him more...He's the most frustrating player, hands down."

18

1)Ned is a great public speaker very funny also
2)Home Depo is awkward around people & unfunny.IMO.

33 Coulda used one of those Betemit AB's last night. Thanks, Grady.

After reading 29 and 33, here's some good news: I have just done my part to help the Dodgers to a memorable win on Saturday: I sold my tickets to the game.

Last time I did this was September 18, 2006.

No guarantees are made or implied in this post. Just saying: I've done my part, and now it's up to the rest of the world.

On Nomar:
"It's concerning to a great level...we see him having a void of confidence...right now he's still leading the lead in batting w/ rsp if you can believe that...but there's a disconnect somewhere..can't put my finger on it...we have to allow him to relax and play and see if can find [his confidence] again."

Q:"well, is moving him to a 3rd base, a new postition, going to help him relax?"

A: "That's not our fault if you know what I mean."

34--So is Bill Gates, but I dont think Microsoft is going to fire him.

But, if being funny and a good public speaker is all it takes to be a GM--I think Jerry Seinfeld should be the GM.

33 Hmmmm...thinking that's not true. Let's verify.

Before this year:
Betemit overall: .271/.332/.433
Betemit off the bench: .206/.325/.279

So unless Betemit magically became the worlds best pinch hitter and complete forgot what he was doing when he was starting, this will all just work itself out.

Luis Gonzalez was brought in to bridge the gap until Matt Kemp was ready.

Pierre in CF for the next 5yrs is what Ned is saying here. Someone must have given Kemp the "cant play CF" tag, and its going to hang with him forever.

The radio hosts really didn't ask Ned any questions about Pierre?

38 - Gates kind of owns Microsoft. If McCourt was unfunny, I doubt he'd fire himself.

38
1. Bill Gates owns Microsoft, so he can't really be fired.
2. Bill Gates made his stockholders wealthy.

Paul DePodesta neither owns the Dodgers or could demonstrably be shown to make the stockholders (i.e. the McCourts) a lot more money.

So overthrowing the cutoff man gets you benched, but not being able to hit the cutoff man on the fly with anything but a rainbow guarantees a starting spot?

Did Colletti address Pierre at all? I didn't get to listen.

In general: [buckle up]

"If we can get a real good starting pitcher [before the trading deadline], we would go for it. if we can get a real good middle reliever, a la a Billingsley, then we would go for that too."

Q: something along the lines of what the dodgers need to do to be be successful this year

A: "Add one more pitcher and have confidence in our offense. If our offense can't produce [more] in the next month then we'll have to add another hitter...We can't change everybody, hopefully we can rebound."

41, 44 No, not a single question or mention on Pierre.

38

Gates also has an amazing track record of success. Its not like were talking about Bill Belecheck here.... Depo may have contributed to some good regular season records in a very weak AL West, but its that's far from a dynasty over there- ive never understood why anyone would be convinced that the way he looks at baseball is more correct than others. Yes, I read moneyball...

38 -- You are drawing an analogy between a pro sports organization and a computer software company? Uh, yeah. Geeks and jocks are birds of a feather, as we all know. DePo would fit in perfectly at Microsoft. Bill Gates couldn't run an MLB team any more than DePo could.

45 "a middle reliever, a la a Billingsley?"

"a middle reliever?"

Now Ned is talking crazy. He's just stringing words together and hoping that it sounds like English.

On Furcal:

"Furcal's ankle hasn't been right [since the spring training injury] and he won't sit down...He can still play a real good shortstop [with it].

45 If our offense can't produce [more] in the next month then we'll have to add another hitter...We can't change everybody, hopefully we can rebound.

Translation:

If we are a few games out of first place in a month, say goodbye to some young prospects to welcome in an expensive 3 month rental.

46 That's more frustrating than Pierre himself. The fact that management doesn't see JP as a problem, at least publicly, is very troubling.

And sure, Matt Kemp has missed some balls while hitting, but the ones he has hit have been hard! They're focusing on what he can't do instead of what he can do.

49 My worry is that he want to acquire a starter to return Billingsley to his 7th inning role. Kill two birds...

50 - By "play" does he mean "imitate" or "mimic," like how Kevin Costner can play a real good post-apocalyptic Postman?

50 Was the tone on the Furcal quote more of:

a) Furcal doesn't want to sit
b) We won't ask Furcal to sit

{38}

some how i'm not suprised Bill Gates got involved in the conversation:o) But seriously they both have there flaws & there high points.

52 He was still very high on Kemp, he just doesn't feel he's quite ready yet, disappointingly.

57 - Well Kemp is certainly not worth a 5 year, $44 million contract, but hey, who is?

58 More (a) than (b) for sure. It sounded like they talked to him about it and he wants to play through it; thinks it will get better over time like his finger injury last year. I'm not sure an ankle can heal like that when you're playing everyday but oh well.

59 was in reference to 55

I think we're all assuming that Bill Gates is shy and antisocial and I don't get that impression of him from his public appearances at all.

He might have been in his younger days, but it's pretty hard to run a company as big as Microsoft if you're just going to hide in your office all day.

47 Depending on what you mean by "looks at baseball" there's mathematical proof that a good team OPS leads to more runs.

in the next month then we'll have to add another hitter

yeah that one kind of scared me, hopefully we won't give up the farm to get a rent-a-player.

On Kent:

"Jeff is 5 or 6 years older than Nomar...He [Kent] can't seem to get any loft on the ball...not to make excuses but he did foul the ball of his foot the other day....everybody goes through stretches...we're still in a transition phase of melding our young players with our veterans."

Billingsley's next four starts should be at home:

Sunday vs. Padres
7/6 vs. Florida
7/16 or 17 vs. Phi
7/21 or 7/22 vs NYM

I hope he does well, for his sake and the Dodgers sake so they don't bump him from the rotation or trade him.

Wouldn't it be something if Billingsley pitched an "interesting" game on Dodger Thoughts Day, securing his future with LA?

BTW, I am hoping my personal 8-game Dodger losing streak vs. SD (7 at Petco, 1 at Dodger Stadium) ends this Saturday in the Penny/Peavy game.

64 Difference is that Kent has hit well at various times during the season, unlike certain other players.

Why meld? I thought the team looked great for those couple of days when the lineup was mostly youngin's

65 Thats ambitious, but on point. All Chad has to do is live up to his potential and Ned will shut up about another starter. Granted he's young, but he seemed onto something when he was mowing everyone down in May. I think once he gets stretched out he will worry less about his pitch count and focus more on getting people out.

I don't believe I've seen the Dodgers win in person since July 4, 2006, an 11-3 win over the DBacks.

Which has helped me remember what I was doing last year on the 4th of July.

I do hope that 65 does not balance out 36.

I just cant belive that Lowe has a better OBP than our 2 and 3 hole hitters (not 3 hole anymore, but for most of the season)

I really wished that Simers had said to Ned, does a .304 OBP constitute getting on base an "awful lot"

one more thing Nomar struggling & learning a new position isn't a good mix they should have eased him into the position like some of us suggested during spring training, or at least played him there (3rd base) once in a while.

48--

You are drawing an analogy between a pro sports organization and a computer software company?

My point is that business is business, and in all successful business all that matters is the bottomline. It doesnt matter how you interact at social functions, or if you give a good interview to the press---Its just the bottomline.

A GM's soul function to procure talent, allocate resources effectively, and build as good of team as can be expected given his financial resources he has to work with.

You dont have to be a jock to be a GM of a baseball team. How many actual GMs are jocks? Not many in baseball. Colletti never even played the game. He wrote about it--he's a public relations guy.

The one positive RE: Kemp is that if Gonzo was only brought in to bridge the gap to Kemp, then perhaps Colletti isn't looking to extend Gonzo.

If they trade for a hitter, it doesn't bode well for Kemp, or possibly Loney. If it's someone like Adam Dunn (would LaRoche & Ethier get it done?), then Kemp is blocked at least for 2007. If it's Teixeira (don't want to think of the cost), then Loney's most likely gone. To me, I still think they would go after a 3B (Rolen?) but only if Nomar doesn't come around. If they do get a 3B, I'm guessing 1B becomes a platoon of Loney and Nomar.

70 The one Dodger Stadium loss during my streak was 4+1 Eve, if that means anything. If history repeats itself, Dodgers lose 2-1 Saturday but comeback Sunday to beat the Pads. But a Sunday comeback means another bad Billingsley start. Blast!

After a bad start Blake DeWitt is now batting .292. I hope he gets promoted soon to AA, I was almost thinking that Blake would never reach the Majors. A link with an interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84gH2nWkMzE&mode=related&search=

What's up with the weird start time today? A 4:30 local game in AZ seems odd. Why not a true getaway day time of 1:05? I guess I shouldn't complain; at least I will get to watch some of the game now.

From Ned's demeanor, I feel he really thought this team would be a run scoring machine. I think last year's success in scoring without much pop led him to expect more runs this year. I think he was thinking that Pierre is an upgrade over Lofton, Ethier and Nomar will hit like last year, Kent would be healthy and return to form, and that Betemit would be an improvement at 3b.

Still, with all of this and all of his comments, I think it's more likely he'll look to acquire a starting pitcher than hitter. Hopefully, Billingsley will have enough time time to settle in, Tsao will prove healthy and effective, and Ned will realize the best move (beyond looking to trade Hendrickson and Tomko for mid level prospects) is standing pat.

OBP:

Juan Pierre .304
Nomar .306
Derek Lowe .306

Can Nomar pitch and let Derek play third?

I still enjoy Jon's article on DePodesta from the 2006 Hardball Times Annual.

It's actually a 3:40 pm local time start for the DBacks. AZ and CA are on the same time during DST.

I assume the time was chosen as some sort of compromise since the Dodgers don't have a long flight home.

Besides, 3:40 pm is a BEAUTIFUL time of the day in Phoenix in late June!

74 Gonzalez is a major litmus test for Ned this offseason. It's a near repeat of Nomar 2006. I get the feeling if Gonzalez is instrumental in getting us into the playoffs and/or advancing in the playoffs then he's back. If we miss the playoffs there will be cover for Ned to "go a different direction" in GM speak.

Gonzalez' performance raises a question. When you sign a 39 yr old with OPS+ of 131, 119, 112, 97 and he puts up a 136, does that really make it a smart move? Any more than the 3-yr Schmidt deal is considered an unwise move? Just once I'd like to see a writer contemplate the wisdom of these signings at the time vs. 100% hindsight.

I found the portion of the Colletti interview I heard very disturbing... it felt like the only stat that meant anything to him was batting average; and the way he described Kemp was surreal ("swinging at a lot of stuff in the other batter's box"). And, while I can understand the frustation with Betemit, it was also surprising to hear him called the "most frustrating player, hands down". Really? Moreso than a $7.5 million #3 hitter who's OPSing less than a starting pitcher? Moreso than a $9 million leadoff hitter whose OBP is less than what many would expect a leadoff bitter's batting average would be?

But then again, I'm not sure if he just talks down to a general audience because that's talk radio... it's certainly easier to joke with the hosts and make a couple basic statements about the one stat that most casual fans know than it is to give a more nuanced examination.

Here's my favorite Loney stat at the moment -- in 140 career at-bats he has 7 triples.

If he keeps this up, he will break the all-time career record at some point several years from now.

Re: Kemp in CF - I love Kemp but he hasn't shown that he could be a passable center fielder. He's a great athlete and has a great arm, but he doesn't track balls very well. I don't think guys learn to become good CF's at this stage in their careers. From what I remember, fielding is a skill that starts declining at about age 23 or 24. I do think Kemp could be a good right fielder, and I suspect Ethier could play in center - he looks way more comfortable in the field than Kemp. If Ethier turned out to be an above average CF, then his averageness at the plate becomes a lot more attractive. Of course, that's only a small part of solving our problems at that position...

Career OBP

Juan Pierre .347
Nomar .364
Derek Lowe .191

Thanks for posting Colletti's comments here, IB! Was cool to hear since I couldn't get the radio station. I did appreciate his comments re: Betemit, and his forthrightness - though, I agree, Telemachos, I wouldn't call him the most frustrating player on the team. But certainly disappointing. Sounds like he said some true things, and some... odd things.

Looking forward to the game today - and it's good Nomar's getting a rest, though he should have had one yesterday given his numbers vs. Webb.

For those wondering why Tony Pena didn't pitch last night, he was out because he had an infection in his leg drained this week. He should be available today.

84 Yes, of course. People are just having fun an picking on Pierre and Nomar because it's easy and they are hitting so poorly this year. Nobody is actually suggesting that Derek Lowe is a better hitter, in general, than Pierre or Nomar.

It's just shorthand for saying that Pierre and Garciaparra need to be benched.

I was running through emails and I ran into this note I sent to my buddy on November 21, 2006

"Juan Pierre signs w/ the Dodgers, 5 for 45 mil?

Remember how bad he was on my fantasy team last year? I had to cut him! He can't hit [censored] for beans, has no arm, has ZERO power, and doesn't even steal that many bases. Ned, what [censored] were you thinking??"

I still can't believe I wrote that.

Looking at the best career OBPs at Baseball-Reference.com, it's striking that the top seven were all left-handed batters. Only two of the top 15 were right-handed: Jimmie Foxx and Rogers Hornsby.

Why?

89
Ahh, the predominance of right-handed pitchers and curve balls breaking the right way!

I don't think Ned's thoughts on Pierre have changed since the day he signed him, he has strengths (whatever few they may be) and he has weaknesses. After 6 or so years of playing nearly everyday, I don't think he thought he was going to become a much different player than what he is today.

So, to expect him to deride a player, who admittingly is down from his average performance, couldn't reach his career averages by years end by having a good second half.

If Kemp was projected to be a center fieleder, why didn't he play it all the time in the minors. Instead he played at the corner outfield spots. I would think if he could play CF, he would have been playing it in the minors in games that don't matter and he didn't.

88 When he was signed, my friend -- a Cubs fan -- sent me this message:

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Cubs fans should tend to their own problems. For they are legend.

And I agree, I think most scouts seem to think that Kemp projects as a corner outfielder, than a CF - due to size/body type, route-running, all that. (Not that Pierre's route-running is anything the AAA will be putting in a map anytime soon.) It's not just random that they're not playing him there. I agree with the above that Ethier may actually be a more capable CFer than Kemp. Either of them would be better than Pierre overall, it's true.

88 Pierre doesn't steal that many bases? Really? I'm not usually one to defend Pierre, but c'mon.

From 2001 to present, Pierre has stolen 344 bases, most in the majors. The next closest to him is Ichiro, with 257.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/pM9A

Here are his NL rankings in SB during his career:

2001 - 1st
2002 - 2nd
2003 - 1st
2004 - 2nd
2005 - 2nd
2006 - 2nd

He currently ranks 2nd in SB in the NL in 2007.

91

I be