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SI.com
NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
From the middle of my latest piece for SI.com's Fungoes:
Chad Billingsley has made eight starts this season for the Dodgers.Stats in his odd-numbered starts: 25 2/3 innings, 14 hits, four runs, nine walks, 19 strikeouts, 1.40 ERA.
Stats in his even-numbered starts: 18 1/3 innings, 22 hits, 16 runs, 13 walks, 15 strikeouts, 7.86 ERA.
Weird, isn't it? He really has alternated good and bad starts.
By the way, did anyone see how close Andre Ethier's ninth-inning, two-out, 3-2 foul ball came to being a bases-clearing double that would have tied Sunday's game at 9-9? Missed it by that much.
Instead, the biggest news to come out of the ninth inning was Jeff Kent's strained left hamstring, which might keep July's hottest hitter out of Tuesday's game against his former team, the Giants.
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By request, an open-chat, spoliers-welcome chat thread for Harry Potter at Screen Jam.
I heard about the Texiera deal from the bizarro world of the Rogan and Simers show. Their crack analysis - that the Braves stole Tex because, basically, they hadn't heard of the players going back. They clearly and obviously confused Saltalamachia with Jason Simontachi, and wrote off everyone else in the deal because they were just minor leaguers. They went on to incorrectly assert that Atlanta did give up their starting catcher, because they've apparently also never heard of Brain McCann. They then wondered how it was that neither the Dodgers nor Angels could match the Atlanta deal.
Rank Team 2007
Dodgers $108,704,524
Padres $58,235,567
Rockies $54,424,000
D'backs $52,067,546
Well, that's hard to say because I haven't watched him pitch very often. But I agree that he needs to be more consistent. How well he pitches the rest of the way will depend a lot on his consistency and how well he pitches. If he can get hitters out, he'll do well. But if he gives up a lot of runs, he won't do well.
Looking at revenue is only relevant in this context to the extent that revenue is a function of salaries, right...?
Tex is an in-his-prime difference making 1st basemen.
Last big trade deadline deal the Braves made like this was Mel Nieves for Fred McGriff. That worked out quite well.
Texiera will likely have a bigger impact than McGriff.
I'm not sure if Loney would have made it around from 1st base on that play.
My take is that Coletti has 40+ million more dollars to put something on the field and what he put on the field is no better than those with 40 million less to play with. Gone are the days where our GM could blame our former GM's too. Any big contract on our roster is Coletti created.
I don't know any other way to show how much I think Coletti is a disaster and that we will never win with him in charge.
Plus, those making the most money on the team are generally performing less than or equal to those making less money.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/giants/ci_6499927
"I give Dodger fans a lot of credit for being knowledgeable," said Roberts, a fan favorite when he played in L.A. from 2002-04. "This is going to be a test, whether they show their knowledge and appreciation and love for the game, or whether they go the other way."
This quote is sort of a double-edged sword, depending on your point of view.
>> Robinson, who was in town to work with the 51s, was found dead in his hotel room at Paris Las Vegas on Sunday morning -- only hours after he threw batting practice and coached first base for the 51s in Saturday's 5-4 win over Round Rock at Cashman Field. <<
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/8804557.html
9 That is a different point than you were making in 3. None of us knows what the team budget is -- though I'll bet several of us can make educated guesses.
I don't know how you can say Colletti is a disaster. There has been no harsher critic of the Pierre signing than me, but my biggest worry with him in charge was that he would trade the Kemps, the Loneys, the Billingsleys, the LaRoches, for short-term gains. He has not done that. He has put the team in a position to let the rookies learn on the job and flourish.
He's not perfect by any means and we've done that to death here. But a disaster? We'll never win with him in charge? In my opinion, you're overstating.
If Teixeira continues to put up the same numbers he has the last couple of years (.280/.380/.530), he's pretty overrated considering the park he plays in. People just look at the 40 bombs and assume he's a superstar. Now, the Braves first base situation was in a terrible place, but I'm not convinced that Teixeira will mean more than one win the rest of the way rather than just running Salty out at first.
I say Coletti is a disaster cause I think he is. I don't think I need to go into every single reason I feel this way (I can privately to you if you want). It would rehash alot of what many people have said, not just me.
I will back down off disaster, because your right, trading top prospects for veterans would have really been a real disaster. But I don't give points to people for not doing something stupid. It wasn't as if BASEBALL didnt know that the dodgers farm system was rated very high and that many of those players would be future MLB players.
But I do stick to never winning a WS with him in charge and that pains me, but its how I feel. I feel he was given every single advantage that the other 2 GM's didnt have (strong farm system, stable ownership, no huge albotross contracts) and has done little to show for it.
I feel we win despite Coletti, not because of him.
"Did Loney almost homer in the sixth inning today? I didn't see it."
Yes, it was close, warning track to left field.
Thus the Peirre's, Gonzo's, Nomar's, Kent's, Schmidt's, of baseball will have a place on the Dodgers while Ned and Grady are in town. The good news seems that as long as Ned and Grady have veterans they are willing to play prospects next to the veterans.
What Ned and Grady will do once the Loney's, Martin's, Kemp's, Ethier's, Billingsly's get two solid years experience regarding the mix of veterans or prospects with players that only have two or three years experience will be interesting.
I really, really want to proven wrong on this but I have no faith in Colletti.
Signed,
Debbie Downer
That said, I think you do have to give as much credit for not making dumb moves as for making smart ones -- though I wouldn't put it that way.
The Dodgers lost 91 games in 2005. If he had chosen to do so, he would have been given carte blanche to make the changes he deemed necessary. Choosing to put faith in the farm system WAS a move -- not merely avoiding the stupid -- and it has paid off. Colletti deserves credit for having that faith.
Colletti's record is, at best, spotty. But this team -- as flawed as it is -- could very well win the world series. They are in first place. They will need luck, but every team needs luck. This year's Dodgers are better than the Cardinals were last year.
Your overall point -- that non-moves aside, his moves have not improved the team -- may have more merit, but again, I don't know how to consider one without the other. You make moves based on need, and your needs are defined by what you feel your system is lacking.
If you told Mrs. Kavula that I was defending Colletti, she would look at you like you was crazy and ask you what you'd done with the real Humma.
You don't know that. Even if it's true that those players made positive contributions, you don't know that their contributions were higher than those that would have been made by players obtained in their stead by another GM.
According to this line of thinking, since Juan Pierre's OPS is greater than zero, he's making a positive offensive contribution to the team for which Colletti deserves credit and he's beyond reproach.
Also, as I said on the last thread, in the last 2 years, teams are reluctant to trade any of their top prospects. With the Braves deal with Texas, that makes 5 players on last year's Baseball America top 50 list that are now playing for different organizations. So while some were fearful of Ned adapting the Brian Sabean win now philosophy (which is probably the way most players feel about deals, they are only playing for the present), he has been pretty much following the industry in keeping your own projected talent.
All that being said, the last time the Dodgers made the post-season in 3 out of 4 years was 40 years ago (3 out of 5 was 22 years ago) so to say Ned is a disaster is a bit of an overstatement and no matter who was in charge at the time of acqusition, the fact remains, Ned is the one who gets to set the roster, so while you may think they win despite him, they win because he put them together on the 25-man roster.
Meanwhile, the Nomars and LuGos and Kents of the world are models of consistency.
Would the Dodgers have the same crowds without Gonzo, Nomar, Kent, and Peirre all of whom get good cheers when announced at Dodger Stadium?
If the team Colletti puts on the field is in first place or very near first place and the seats are filled in Dodger stadium, McCourt will be happy with Ned, especially since he seems to like him.
It would be nice if Collittle were forced to answer the following question in public:
"Can Juan Pierre hit lefties?"
Course, it would also be nice if they were forced to answer
"Can Juan Pierre hit righties?"
That would be nice.
268.
In 112 at-bats.
I imagine him silently weeping at his desk while holding a picture of James Loney and Clayton Kershaw in each hand, and wondering just how badly the Dodgers want Eric Gagne back.
Certainly, attendance is key but there are a lot of inherent reasons why the Dodgers draw well regardless of who is wearing the Blue.
2006 .543 3,758,545
2005 .438 3,603,680
2004 .574 3,488,283
2003 .525 3,138,626
2002 .568 3,131,255
2001 .531 3,017,143
2000 .531 3,011,539
1999 .475 3,098,042
1998 .512 3,089,201
1997 .543 3,319,504
1996 .556 3,188,454
1995 .542 2,766,251
1994 .509 2,279,355
1993 .500 3,170,392
1992 .389 2,473,266
1991 .574 3,348,170
1990 .531 3,002,396
But nothing like they could do with their own station. If McCourt wants the Dodgers to be the Yankees of the NL, it's pretty tough to do it without those resources. Not impossible, but much more difficult.
>> Infielder Tony Abreu hasn't played since the Dodgers optioned him to Las Vegas on July 18 because of an abdominal strain that didn't stop him from coming off the bench in four games before he was sent down.
"They're giving him treatment for it, but we want to make sure he is 100 percent," Watson said. "He is taking batting practice, taking ground balls and doing some work on the treadmill." <<
http://www.dailybreeze.com/sports/articles/8803152.html
I've seen a few posts defending the Dodger payroll because it somehow is justified because the Dodgers bring in more money. That line of thinking is absurd because Jason Schmidt is currently not putting butts in Dodger Stadium, nor is his Jersey flying off the shelves. People aren't buying more Nachos because we have an outfield that includes Pierre.
Ah, the woes of being mired in the cellar. Oh, wait!
I think you're jumping the gun. Colletti has had exactly one opportunity to win a WS so far. The Dodgers are still very much in the hunt in this, his second season. Not all of his moves have worked out, but not all of any GMs moves have worked out. He's made his share of unforced errors, but he's also been victimized (as DePo was) by injuries to some of his key acquisitions. And some of his moves have been good: Grady Little, Luis Gonzalez, Sammy Saito, Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, and the timely promotions of Billingsley, Broxton, Martin, Loney and Kemp.
Teixeira is now heading for Atlanta, and Loney, Kershaw and Meloan are still Dodgers. That's a superb move by Colletti, not to panic and get into that bidding war. We've got less than 48 hours left to see if he can continue his record of not throwing away the future for the present. So far, he's batting 1.000.
(P.S. Dotel for Hu would be a tolerable trade, imho, even though Hu could become a starter someday.)
If I go to the concession stand midgame, I would be more likely to do so when Pierre is batting than when Kemp or Ethier is. So maybe it is working.
Is "Dotel for Hu" preferable to "Dotel for Abreu"? I know that perhaps Hu is playing over his head, in which case sell-high may be in order. But I look at Tony Abreu and I see Josh Barfield, and I'm just not sold on him long-term. At least Hu is a plus defender at short.
Dotel for free would be OK, but just how much better is he going to be than whoever he replaces? Half a win? A quarter?
On the other hand, I kinda wish he weren't throwing away the present for the future.
The NL is winnable this year. Seems like Atlanta sees that and is going for it. If we don't try to fill some gaps, aren't we just hoping that we'll be stronger in later years with prospects who may or may not pan out?
I'm not necessarily advocating a Texeira-level move, but I'll be disappointed if we can't improve the team by Tuesday.
http://tinyurl.com/3dbywa
Of course, there will always be GMs who covet great-defending shortstops. But maybe, as was said earlier, his value will never be higher than now.
or
La Roche for Matt Garza
Which trade would you pull the trigger on?
If so, then we should be able to get more then a middle relief pitcher with a long history of physical ailments who is not all that great.
If I have one major beef with Ned's trades, it's not that he traded some prospects, but that he didn't get much for them.
I think so, they desperately need power and a 3b. They have young pitching and Garza has ticked off the front office with his behavior. Liriano comes back next year, so along with Bonzer, Baker, Santana, and Slowery they still have a 5 man rotation and Mansfield is coming on strong.
I think it would be a win win deal for both teams.
actually he did it in the Southern League which is known for pitching and big parks.
Right, that seems to be the general beef. If Lugo had performed just at his historical level it would not have seemed so bad. I think it is funny that Lugo hit as bad as he's ever hit in his career while Marlon hit better then he's ever hit in his career. Baseball is still a crapshoot over a small period of games.
McDonald has been one of the minor's best breakouts this year, striking out 104 in 82 innings for High-A Inland Empire before getting promoted to the Southern League three weeks ago. Yesterday, McDonald had his best outing yet for the Suns, whiffing 11 over seven innings while allowing one run and four hits. In four starts for Jacksonville, McDonald has a 1.19 ERA while limiting hitters to a .192 average and punching out 28 in 22 2/3 innings. Better yet, his scouting reports are nearly as impressive as his numbers. A 6-foot-5 right-hander, McDonald has a low-90s fastball than touches 94 mph, plus a solid curveball and a very good changeup. He's moving up quickly, and is already a lock for my Dodgers' Top 10 list in the offseason, and has a good chance of reaching the majors at some point in 2008.
25.5 hours to go, remember last year, the Maddux and Lugo deals were not announced until just after 1:00 p.m.
I think Baker will still have the better career.
1. he's going to be cheaper in terms of prospects
2. he's probably undervalued because of his down year
3. if scouting reports check out, he should be able to bounce back for a decent stretch run.
4. hes signed for 2008.
I never really had that paranoid feeling that Colletti was going to try to acquire Tex at all costs.
I actually don't feel that anxious at all. Outside of Tex, there really isn't anyone available that we could conceivably throw top prospects at. Unless of course there are names available that have not been made available to the public yet.
They played Betemit at 2b in one game at Colorado. Laroche has not played a middle infield position in a long time...since he was an amateur.
Well they're trading players outside my cell I've got 25 hours to go
And the whole town's waitin' just to hear Nate yell I've got 24 hours to go
Well they gave me some prospects for my last meal I've got 23 hours to go
But nobody asked me how I feel I've got 22