Another factor is the home/away winning % combined with the winning % against each division. The Diamondbacks, for example, are only .479 against western division teams.

Still another factor is the home field advantage which plays a huge role in the last week of the season: Where does each competing team finish the season? At home? or away? The Dodgers finish the season with 6 home games, while the D-backs are away for 6, and the Pads are away for 7.

I did some research before Friday night's game and the results, I believe, are surprising, and even exciting.

METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE FATIGUE FACTOR: I gave one win per each rest day, and one loss per each 5 times zones of required travel.

METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE WIN FACTOR: I multiplied the number of home games remaining by the current (Sep 7, am) home win%, ditto the away games by the away win%, and averaged that sum with the # of games and win% against each division

METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE HOME FIELD ADV
I gave one win for each final-week series at home, and one loss for each final-week series away (max. 2 wins or 2 losses).

from Fri 7 sept till end of season:

DODGERS:
Win factor: 11.5 wins
Rest factor: 2.6 wins
Home field factor: 2 wins
record Sep 7 till end of season: 16-6
final record: 90-72

D-BACKS
Win factor: 10.5 wins
Rest factor: 1.6 wins
Home field factor: 2 losses
record Sep 7 till end of season: 10-11
final record: 88-74

PADRES
Win factor: 12.9 wins
Rest factor: 0.2 loss
Home field factor: 2 losses
record Sep 7 till end of season: 11-12
final record: 87-75

ROCKIES
Win factor: 12.1 wins
Rest factor: 1.8 wins
Home field factor: 1 win, 1 loss
record Sep 7 till end of season: 13-10
final record: 85-77

I calculated the wild card teams,too:
Phillies: 13-10, so final record 86-76
Brewers: 14-9, so 85-77
Cardinals: 9-16, so 78-84
Cubs: 11-12, so 82-80
Braves: 10-12, so 81-81

Needless to say, these estimates are based upon past performance, only, and do not take individual performance or streak-quirks into account.

I was thinking the same thing, & I really feel Broxtons pitch to Soriano was a darn good one (He hit it almost off the ground!) & the pitch to the Giants hitter last night was basically a badly located pitch, I'm sure The Bull™ will be fine, just a little run of bad luck that's all.

I've just discovered that not only is Versus a real channel, but it's one that I get. So, I've got that going for me.

Yes, Barry, these hitters are usually a lot worse than you faced in the AL.

Clearly you do not mean our 8th inning pitcher, who pitched his first full season last year -- and September was his strongest month.

Piazza (1997), .362
Piazza (1995), .346
W.Davis (1962), .346
Kemp (2007), .342

Is Eric Karros on autopilot today?

That always struck me as odd, overstating the "he's a nice guy" point.

All the psychobabble Grady spouts when he posts an idiotic lineup is just BS. His job is not to keep harmony in the dugout, but to put the best 8 available position players on the field EVERY game. He has failed to do that in 2007.

He obviously needs a better bench coach to assist him in deciding pitching changes.

32 Fortunately this Dodger fan isn't there, or they'd already be losing 3-0.

Okay off to get second hand stoned. Later taters!

It seems there have been very few games opened this way this year

Jauss would then say, "You've got two lefties and a righty up the next inning for the Giants."

Eventually, they'd just call up Robert McNamara and ask his opinion.

yea, i didn't realize a 132 OPS+ qualifies as potential.

Fewer things make me happier in football than seeing an 11 on the board. The only other numbers that would make me happier are 4 and 5.

Late thanks to underdog for organizing the little meet yesterday. Entering enemy territory (especially the bleachers) was much more pleasant with some nice DT company. Everybody was great, though from the descriptions I was hearing before the game, I was a little disappointed that Vishal didn't show up in a business suit. Ah well. Thanks Louis in SF, Paul B, Icaros, Vishal, and underdog for a great night!

And I think the loss was my fault mostly. I can't seem to attend a Dodger game where they win for the life of me.

just curious, what was the age range of that get together?

I did greatly appreciate Oklahoma's 13-2 Orange Bowl win over FSU a few years back, to win the national title.

And you're welcome Fanerman! Great to meet you. Sorry that you and I are both jinxes.

Wasn't I leaving?

Apparently 17 baserunners in 10 innings qualifies as "two good starts".

They are officially called rouges, but everyone in Canada calls them "singles." I've been to one CFL game in person and there were no singles.

I should have asked for a refund.

81 Cut!

And I the Rams. I guess that's just how it works.

You can't win a CFL game in overtime on a single.

I pick the Vikings every year.

The CFL is big on shenanigans.

I don't have a hangover...i think its because i never went to bed.

Those genes usually die off as you get older.

Bye Bob, Godspeed.

We swing at that here.

I'm a real hard core fan.

Hilarious...25-7 Ducks.

At least, Oregon is helping to off-set the Oregon State debacle.

And they score again lol.

Bye Bye, Lloyd.

As usual we are at a point where if we could have a goodd inning from the standpoint of making Zito throw some pitches
we could put him out. And you know what comes next.

You guys could read books together.

why? jealous much?

Somewhere in Colorado, Hallux is angry.

That would be pretty sweet. Would we have to talk at all?

I blame this on Rick Monday.

And that was a dumb play by Shea.

How do I stay rational...how?

Let's see if we can guess what will happen in the 7th: 1 or 2 guys get on, and Wells gets pulled.

Ridiculous.

Grady Little doesn't agree with you, I really hope this decision doesn't COLLAPSE ON HIM.

I say he pitches the 8th.

I'd bring him in, He's had some bad luck with the 2 dingers but I think he's good to go.

If you promise to lose to UCLA today, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks!

Do you have to look up from your book for that?

229 Sorry, no deal. My BYU affinity gets stronger every day. Plus I'm a sucker for an underdog. And I already granted you last year's win. Didn't you know I had a hand in that?

232 Olson is OK by me. With the way college coaches move around, players ought to be able to do it too. I hold no hard feelings. I hope he throws two TDs today, in a BYU 31-24 win.

Excuse me while I throw the biggest parade ever.

Who's drumming? Jason?

But I'll take it.

Who would you prefer?

I would take any number of random rock drummers.

This is awesome.

I'm not sold on this new "Mr. Jinx" addition to your persona.

Nothing personal.

I don't like it either but it's been working lately.

Since last Sept 18, Saito's ERA is 1.14, with 85 Ks and 10 BBs in 63.1 IP.

I know, but I've never been a huge Zeppelin fan anyway, and the style clash would make the experience more interesting for me.

Bill Ward hasn't looked healthy in two decades.

can anyone think of a team that would take Pierre?.....

It will be particularly unsmart to sign Hunter this offseason, when he'll undoubtedly get paid a lot more than a team should pay him.

I doubt it, I seriously do.

Saito 2007: 1.29 ERA, .160/.205/.242 batters against

Eric Karros makes a great point, we're only paying Saito a million bucks, pretty cool, & the Dodgers only paid Gagne minimum wage during his SICK STINT, pretty lucky I'd say.

I always wanted to hear Keith Moon play with Zep. But his being dead precluded such a union.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=XdO2aYfQa6I

Never mind the fact that technically Saito has only one year ML experience and he is not even arb-eligible until 2009.

Whomever signs him is bound to regret it.

Another thought is letting Kemp play center, putting Ethier in right, and Young in left, but this front office doesn't have the courage.....

Dear media,
Please recognize that the Big Ten is not the be-all end-all of college football.

I don't know much about Rowand, other than that his stats seem to vary wildly from year to year.

If had my choice of Hunter, Jones, or Rowand, I take Rowand.

It's all about the Southeastern Conference.

We are not going to get rid of Pierre. Ned thinks he is good. Simple as that.

Yep. As we've been saying all along, Ned will be quite content with Pierre's BA and SBs at the end of the year, and probably not too disappointed with his Rs.

And yes, 299 The SEC runs a close second in hype to the Big Ten.

I miss late night Hawaii football.

Not that I get that channel.

But more importantly, he is also reporting that Dan Evans will get an interview with Houston, bringing the official candidate list up to 11 men. At least White has a lot of competition for the job.

Piazza (1997), .362
Piazza (1995), .346
W.Davis (1962), .346
Kemp (2007), .342

Actually, that .346 BA in 1962 belongs to Tommy Davis.

Hey Enders, are you going to take a break from lousy music like The Boss and get tickets for Led Zeppelin's upcoming tour?

It's the honor code I have a problem with. Honor Codes and college should not go together.

But his bat would be even more of one.

Furcal - SS
Martin - C
Kemp - CF
Dunn - LF
Kent - 2B
Loney - 1B
Ethier - RF
LaRoche - 3B

I'm not quite sure who we traded to bring Dunn in though.

If the Dodgers had had Dunn this season, Ned would have thrown him in with Betemit in the Proctor trade.

Google:

Results 1 - 10 of about 2,290,000 for college honor code

I would guess nearly every college has an honor code. BYU goes beyond plagiarism to include other behaviors they consider immoral. Not too surprising from a private, religious institution.

Believe it or not, the BYU students, if given the chance to vote on it, would overwhelmingly uphold the honor code.

Again, I like BYU, and I respect its standards. But for a kid that grew up with Irish Catholics and Episcopalians, we just look at it a bit differently, ya know?

Don't smite me, Professor.

Eric E. must have no idea what's going on.

If Dunn is traded in 2007, his 2008 option ($13m) becomes void, which means he would have to clear waivers and be traded during the next 3 weeks, and even then he would not be eligible for postseason play.

If the Reds pick up his 2008 option, Dunn has a complete no trade to June 15, 2008, then a limited no-trade after that (during which Dunn can pick 10 teams to which he can be traded).

The most viable option for acquiring Dunn is if the Reds decline his option, making him a free agent.

And that's a hilarious observation, Eric.

>> Furcal, who was charged with an error on the play, left the clubhouse without speaking to reporters after the third-place Dodgers (74-67) fell 42 games behind division-leading Arizona in the National League West. <<

http://www.dailynews.com/ci_6835156

But happy about the win.

There is another POS movie on the Sci-Fi channel that is indescribably laughably awful, btw. A man in a giant carpet who looks like something from GWAR is attacking stupid people. Better switch to college football...

Tue - Peavy vs Loaiza
Wed - Germano vs Lowe
Thu - TBA vs Billingsley

Pre-All Star Break:
209 ABs: .177/.238/.254

Post-All Star Break
120 ABs: .300/.351/.500

He hit his 8th HR of the year tonight.

And fire Karl Dorrell.

Let it go bro, we have the better catcher & we had him all long, stupid upper management...

But I refuse to care while this buffoon is running the program.

I hope they do not care about football.

Well that's true...

Based on the comments I thought UCLA had gotten creamed. Imagine my surprise when I found out they won.

DJ Bonebrake

that has to be a Bob alert no? Pujols hitting a triple, 1st at bat!

Yep, they're thinking of starting him against us in at least one game next week if Milton Bradley is unable to play.

eh i dunno. His numbers are still hideous.

if anything it worked out well for both guys.

I think I pulled into a VIP lot and they let me stay there at the Rose Bowl today.

Pretty big crowd out there for a game before school starts for UCLA.

when healthy he is a good ball player, but man...

Were you sufficiently impressed with the Bruins' outing today?

And what about your book?

lacy (sp) saturday for me, after some exercise

A lacy Saturday would probably involve lots of lace, which I'm sure would make for a very exciting day. Nothing like lacing a dress to give you lots of energy.

I think that sums it up.

There were a LOT of BYU fans. Including the father and daughter sitting next to me. I would assume that the crowd was 40-50% Cougars fans.

Maybe expecting managers and others in baseball to be smart is misguided? There are people out there with incredible sporting talent, both natural and cultivated. But they're jocks. Maybe we shouldn't expect them to be smart too. It's probably quite rare. It's more reasonable to expect it of GMs.

Who are the smart managers? And
if there are smart players (perhaps Jeff Kent is one?) how much opportunity do they have to exercise independent smart judgment?

Hendrickson is the 327th VORPiest pitcher in baseball this year. Toby Hall is gone. And it's still not clear that the trade was lost. Really, the whole thing is too pathetic to spend any time thinking about.

Oh, and he has a better caught stealing percentage than Russ so that whole "he can't play defense" thing was probably a giant over reaction.

O.k.

I know MGL thinks highly of Ned Yost, who apparently owns a copy of The Book, though who knows if he's actually read it or used it.

98 AB, .204/.210/.235, OPS+ of 20 (and that's before today's 0-3 performance), 5 PB, 20 SB, 2 CS

What an awful season, from all aspects. He really should have had the surgery back after he was hurt in April, considering how amazingly bad he's been while playing this year.

interestingly, Russ had a 270/.352/.410 pecota projection coming into the year.

I never was convinced that Navarro would be better than Martin - and people like Canuck were sure from the start that he wouldn't be. But the way many people turned on him, despite his youth, was just another reflection of how so many people ignore age when they evaluate players. Why wouldn't he be improving. He's still only 23.

The argument against trading him to Tampa Bay last year is not that he should be starting over Martin. It's that he was more valuable than he was given credit for, even if he couldn't have been Martin's backup for lack of playing time.

We then effectively cashed that chip in for Toby Hall.

God forbid baseball become a meritocracy. That would be terrible. Rookies are stoopid!

Last in every sense of the word.

No player from the 2000 draft is still in the organization.

Luis Gonzalez is the only player left in the organization from the 2001 draft.

FIVE players from the 2002 draft (Loney, Broxton, Young, Stults and Martin) are currently on the Dodgers MLB team (McDonald and Miller still have a chance).

THREE players from the 2003 draft (Billingsley, Kemp and LaRoche) are currently on the Dodgers MLB team (Wright and Paul still have a chance).

EIGHT players from the 2 drafts on our current MLB team.

I eventually made my way to Pasadena, debating all the way of whether I should park at the Rose Bowl or take the shuttle.

I decided to take the shuttle so I parked at Parsons and then went to a local pub to have my traditional pre-game beer and sandwich. So while I am watching Cal hang on in Colorado and Oregon help Lloyd Carr out the door at a Michigan, the time grows close to about an hour before gametime.

Eventually, I get to the Rose Bowl and I am fumbling with my wallet to get my ticket so I go inside and I wanted to buy a program. So I reach into my pocket and my wallet isn't there so I know I dropped it outside the gate. So I have to go outside and retrace my steps and amazingly, I find it sitting on the ground, luckily I dropped on the grass cutout instead of the pavement.

In the midst of my search, I get annoyed with my I-Pod, so I rip off my earphones, and shove it in my bag.

So, now wallet in hand, I make it into the Rose Bowl in time for kickoff.

I'll skip the game.

So now, I have left and I am standing in line to get back on the shuttle. I pull out my I-Pod to listen to it while I wait and while part of the cord (its two parts) is their, the part with the earphones is gone. So now, I am faced with no earphones and I think it probably fell off when I ripped them off my head. But I can't recall exactly where I did that. And I'm tired so I think I may just have to face that I lost them.

Now, luckily, there was still a little light left, so I glance at that same cutout area and what do I see on the ground, yes, my earphones.

So as I rode the bus back to my car, I will say that while UCLA had a very fortunate day, no one had a luckier day than me today.

Oh, and yes, Bob and I are but a few rows apart and I'm sure that at some point, I'll be able to move down to share some baked goods with him.

But for now, I'm just happy to make it back home intact.

I just realized White drafted Matt Antonelli out of high school in 2003. Sure would be nice if he were a Dodger and not a Padre right now. As a 22 year old second baseman:
A+ 347 ABs, .314/.409/.499
AA 180 ABs, .294/.395/.476

Stand down.

If Bob's on board with the proper spelling of canceled, we've won the fight.

My intel tells me that Colt looked terrible today.

426 - Wasn't Luis Gonzalez, um, winning a World Series with another team, in 2001? :)

Game recap here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=200709080038

But I don't deny that the radio guys and I were both highly concerned until the UH field goal kicker hit a 49-yarder with 1:34 left in regulation to tie it. It was 4th and 19, and the broadcasters thought Jones was going to go for it; that shows how infrequently UH's field goal unit has been used in the past couple of years.

Many, many people don't understand how amazing a band X was, and still is. If they hit the scene in 1992 instead of the 80's.. they would've been the biggest thing ever.
I had my one and only chance to see them in person in 1995 at the House of Blues in Hollywood... I fought thru the crowd.. got dead center and anchored myself in front of Exene. It was amazing.. with Billy Zoom on guitar, damn fine.
By the way, and I say this as a USC Alum... LSU is a truly impressive football team. If the Trojans don't turn the hype into production next week, oy...

Nobody's perfect.

But hey, a few of us here at least appreciate the heck out of X.

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/716197.html

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/781522.html

Good times, good times...

I could see an X song being my at bat music if I were on the Dodgers.

I actually root for the Bruins when they're not playing SC. I grew up in Hawaii and was a fan of all things LA, I just ended up a Trojan.

Not to be redundant, but X is amazing. I remember the first time I heard Everclear's hit "Santa Monica", I thought.. "these guys have to be X fans".. sure enought on the liner notes, "thanks to John Doe".

I'd be more than happy to fail some students for a quick buck. I have no morals.

http://tinyurl.com/yoo6xn

449 I'm teaching middle school this year.

1) Jon Weisman (as obvious a choice as UHF for greatest movie ever!)
2) Bob Timmermann (a combination of knowledge and dry wit like no other)
3) bhsportsguy (common sense to the extreme, combined with a baking prowess)
4) Eric Enders (historian, Gagne look alike, occasional insider access)
5) Greg Brock (funniest person here)
6) ToyCannon (always brings a great perspective)
7) regfairfield (stats combined with great knowledge)
8) natepurcell (we all live vicariously through him; oh yeah, he's great at the prospect info too)
9) CanuckDodger (prospect guru, a wealth of info)
10) Marty (hilarious)

Apologies to Andrew Shimmin, Suffering Bruin, Bluebleeder87, and LAT, who narrowly missed the cut.

(I'm reverting to high school)

And trust me, I know bhsporstguy...He's on my speed dial...He's not that funny. He's not remotely entertaining. And Enders is just another one of those brilliant people that likes to bowl you over with how brilliant he is. "Oh, look at me, I'm Eric Enders, and I'm really, really smart. I know about stuff...I'm a genius!" Yeah, well, so what?

I should be higher in the rankings. In fact, I should be number one.

I like Eric Young too, but he is really, really bad on Baseball Tonight. A good drinking game is to drink every time EY says "I'll tell you what."

I'm just trying to say that I'm the backbone of this operation.

The funniest thing is that if you ever met Greg Brock, you would have no idea that he is "Greg Brock."

Greg Brock's uniform number with the Dodgers: 9

Current Dodger #9: Juan Pierre

Well played secret fandom, sir.

The tubes make me funnier. I'm not that funny live.

Is currently in development hell. Now that I've met so many of you, my casting list is out the door. I had BH as Richard Benjamin...and now that I've met him I know how bad the casting list is. BH would probably be played by Ken Watanabe.

Suffering Bruin will be played by Daniel Craig...That's for sure. LAT will be played by George Clooney. Once we get past those dreamy leads, the rest is up in the air.

Your mom is wrong. But you're still one of the best posters around here. But not funny

I'm still having a huge problem casting Bob Timmermann.

Tony Curtis
Kirk Douglas
Burt Lancaster
Robert Mitchum
Frank Sinatra
George C. Scott

But if you've seen the movie, you know that it's a compliment.

Peter Krause?

I don't know how to cast Bob. I gave him the two most brilliant comedians of the last half century, and he declined both of them.

Bob will be played by Bob Newhart. No more arguments. The cast has been set.

"Do..."
"Re..."
"Bob!"

Don't get picky, Andrew.

Sam DC has already been cast as David Strathairn.

Then again, glass houses, stones, etc.

Would you like to make a recommendation? M. Night meets Russell Crowe? Help me out here.

Andrew Grant will now be played by Julia Styles.

You can cast me as Ellen Degeneres for all I care.

Gandhi meets Duchovny. Congrats...You are now played by Jay Chandrasekhar.

Works for other reasons too.

Though Julia Stiles is pretty dang attractive.

Andrew Grant will now be played by MasterBlaster.

Sophie Marceau also made the top five for me. Draw your own conclusions.

This is awkward.

And we have California covered.

He traveled a long way and excelled at spelling "canceled".

It is 3:00 on Sunday Morning and I've decided we need a DT Sunday Picnic Softball game where the over 40's play the under 40's once the Dodger season is over in November. The field on Ohio/Sepulveda should do the trick.

My 1, 3, and 4 (I didn't recognize 2) matches for men: Ernest Hemingway, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Ted Bundy!

1, 2, 3 for women: South Korean actress Son Ye-jin (the highest match), Halle Berry (same % as Hemingway), and Letizia Ortiz Rocasolano, Princess of Asturias

I don't think he would play first now unless there were several emergencies. And after Loney, the Dodgers have four players who can play first: Hillenbrand, Saenz, Kent, and Martinez.