Okay, it's 1:05 a.m., baseball is done for the night, and so am I.

"Can we now call you Big Game James?"
- too much gel and spanish accent announcer dude
"You can call me whatever you want."
- James Loney, being too cool for school

I like that our young guys are arrogant.

What would happen if the season ends with a 3-way or god forbid a 4-way tie for the wildcard? I wonder if they've even accounted for the possibility.

13 Two teams playing out the string doesn't count. I don't play fantasy leagues, so whether Nick Swisher goes 1 for 4 isn't my concern.

In 1973, the NL was ready for a 5-way tie in the East. That would have taken three days.

You're just too hard on yourself.

Nice guy. I asked him which player he thought the most of and he said it was Matt Kemp. He added that he would be a 40/100 guy easy.

He also added that he loves Delwyn Young and worked with him extensively in Vero, but feels that he might not find a position.

Good game for the boys in blue! Even sat two rows in front of a DT'er!!!

I'm not surprised about the Landreaux-Young connection.

"I personally think they should start him this week," Shanahan told the Bay Area media by conference call Wednesday. "If they're paying him that kind of money they should throw him into the fire and put him in against the Broncos."

"Padres pitcher Chris Young has insights into highly touted pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw, a 19-year-old left-hander who reached Double-A with the Dodgers this summer. Young and Kershaw attended the same high school in Dallas, and this past offseason they played catch regularly with one another.

"You learn more from playing catch with somebody than you do from watching him pitch from the side," Young said. "His arm is literally electric."

Young has played catch regularly with major leaguer pitchers, but he said of Kershaw: "I have never played catch with anybody whose arm is as fast and flowing as his. That's amazing. I wish he was in our organization. I think we'll see him next year."

vs. AZ: 7-5
vs. CO: 6-5
vs. SF: 8-7

Here's Boswell and how the Angels have declared war on the statheads. And won! http://tinyurl.com/2wjk7e

Let's just say it's not a very restrained piece of writing.

The Angels are 5th in runs, and 5th in OBP.

Advantage: Stat-geeks

Q: What do "stat geeks" say is the most important predictor of scoring runs?
A: Getting on base, which is conveniently measured by the on-base percentage (or "OBP") statistic.

Q: Where do the Angels rank in runs scored in the MLB?
A: 5th

Q: Where do the Angels rank in OBP in the MLB?
A: 5th

Q: If they're 5th in runs and 5th in OBP, is it really so mysterious why they're scoring runs?
A: No

Q: Does their run scoring prove stat geeks wrong?
A: No. In fact, their run scoring is predictable, given the relationship between scoring runs and getting on base that is so often touted by stat geeks.

That's a separate issue. Their BA is what it is, regardless of luck. It still contributes to OBP, which in turn contributes to runs. Nothing about their season thus far appears to contradict your statement:

In a season in which they get lucky they will score runs, when the batting averages normalize, they strugglen to score runs

Course, it should be noted that some of those other factors may contribute to OBP. But if they do, then they're means, not ends, and they're reflected in stats.

-Russel Martin, channeling a certain Hall of Fame catcher.

Aside from the points all of you guys made already, he didn't even get all his facts straight.

"On what other team does [Garret Anderson,] a man with 1,205 career RBI, 10 of them in one game last month at Yankee Stadium, know how many times his teammates have gone first to third?"

Yankee Stadium? The 10 RBI game was played at Angel Stadium.

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy

He should resign.

375/408/861/1.269

Youza

2007 Angels:
5th in runs
5th in OBP

-- It's not the strategy, it's been the same since 2002
-- It's not the new Offensive players, many of them are the same, save Gary Matthews Jr, but I don't think he made that kind of an impact
-- Could it be the pitching?

The Dodgers will face that kind of non-scrutiny followed by strange new respect in the next couple of years.

Last year the Angels were 9th in batting and hit 12 points lower than they did this year, thus their OBP was lower. Their walks and HR placement was about the same. This year, their OBP placement is high because as a team they are hitting .286.

So my addition to this discussion would be, on the one hand, the analysis of the Angels is very easy, hits and more hits, when they do that, they are successful, when they don't, they are not going to win because they don't get guys on base by walks or hit a lot of homers when they are not hitting as a team.

Basically, good hitting (due to luck or whatever) up and down the order, with strong pitching.

At least one hopes.

Player interviews should be phased out. There's really no point, unless something special happened.

Besides being a waste of everyone's time, player interviews HURT. A cliche repeated since 1926 inflicts actual physical pain upon the ear drum.

These interviews stink because

1. Most athletes are mentally / verbally boring.

2. There simply isn't much of interest to say about a game, play, or performance that everyone just saw with their own eyes. What happened, happened, and that's that.

3. Alot of us would clam-up too if we were asked to spontaneosly broadcast our thoughts to millions of people.

4. Boring questions call forth boring answers. I mean, how can you sparkle responding to questions like:

"That home run had to feel pretty good."

"What do the Dodgers need to do to keep the momentum going"?

"What's the mood in the clubhouse?"

I'd rather hear what their favorite cake is.

I looked at this the other day with respect to the Dodgers (but didn't report my findings)

Hits/Run:

Angels = 1.88 (10th in MLB)
Dodgers = 2.08 (29th in MLB)

I knew I recognized the guy who came and sat down with you!

My mom (queen lurker) has been wearing her Dodgerthoughts tshirt for months hoping to run into someone else from the site. You made her very happy.

It was such a treat watching the kids play last night. It makes it seem all the more absurd that they've spent so much time on the bench this year.

These Dodgers are gonna win just enough to keep me from giving up. Ugh.

That reminds me of this thread:

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/435353.html

Greg Oden always reminds me of Eeyore when he gives interviews. He looks melancholy and about 45 years old.

It makes sense that the Dodgers would have a higher average since they are 9th in MLB in hits and 21st in runs.

Now, if I was scrutinize the Dodgers, their lack of power plus having an empty hole at 3B for most of the year did not help their offense this year.

"That home run had to feel pretty good."

Yup, in fact I would probably have about 10 more if I was just allowed to play with the big club since April. It feels good because you know the press was saying I was pouting about how and the heck they can sign Nomar to play first base when I was good and ready. I am a better fielder too.

"What do the Dodgers need to do to keep the momentum going"?

We were considering a karoke bar tonight but instead were just gonna get a bunch of strippers and hang out over at Martins pad in Manhattan Beach. We already got the keg of newcastle..Furcal is on his way to pick it up and get the party started, he dosen't really want to talk to you guys right now, so he took it upon himself to deal with the Keg and getting the tap to work. That's always the tricky part.

"What's the mood in the clubhouse?"

Pretty good, but Kent is a downer. He is a nice guy to me and all but sheesh man have some fun. We just won. I mean how often can you read about the brand new Kawasaki 550. And it's weird that some of us guys want to party but then some of the older players think we are silly. Gonzo, Nomar, Kent, Hernandez and other would rather be running daddy day care out of the clubhouse so that's why we have to go to Martin's place.

There's somebody worse?!

Neither did the team ineptness on the basepaths. Oh so many pickoffs and guys getting killed trying to go first to third.

http://truebluela.com/story/2007/8/1/131319/3949

In fact, the Dodgers skills on the basepath were how they were generating runs with their legs, since they were a net negative on steals.

Now, he could be burned out but if I were Pittsburgh or Houston, I would certainly give him a call.

In re the Angels, looking at their 2005 stats (when they won 95 games) as a team they hit .270/.325/.409, while the league went .268/.330/.424. They were also 9th in the AL in OBP yet 5th in runs scored. Say what you will about them, they are fun to watch, if you can put up with Rex Hudler.

63 - he looks 45 because he probably is.

http://www.miamiherald.com/589/story/235835.html#x

What site did you use to pull up that team data? I couldn't find it on BR or mlb.com

Wild Card

Rockies: 12.91
Dodgers: 12.89

Division:

Dodgers: 5.45
Rockies: 3.74

I guess it makes sense you could actually hear him, but it's kind of funny to eject like your only fan from a game.

And then the game went 12 innings!

Any Tom, Dick, or bhsportsguy can just toss something in the comments.

If you can find a higher quality blog, then buy it!

79 From Red Barber's Wikipedia entry - Late in 1966, a paid attendance of 413 was announced at the 65,000-seat Yankee Stadium. Red Barber asked the TV cameras to pan the empty stands as he commented on the low attendance. Although denied the camera shots on orders from the Yankees' head of media relations, he said, "I don't know what the paid attendance is today, but whatever it is, it is the smallest crowd in the history of Yankee Stadium, and this crowd is the story, not the game."

Red Barber was either fired or did not have his contract renewed when he met with Yankee management the following week.

Me and Bob T. are in the house tonight.

I'll be at the game again. Roy Kim and Daughter will be joining me. Is Bob T sitting with you?

As far as I'm concerned, all Patriot games under Belichick should be forfeiting, including their Super Bowl victory over the Rams.

The Marlins have been an amazing baseball story, but the people of Miami apparently aren't interested in it. To each his own. But I would think you could move that team almost anywhere else and they'd do better.

From my P.O.V., the more west coast teams the better, so I'd root for Portland or Sacramento. But you could put the Marlins in central New Jersey, Indianapolis or North Carolina and do better than they're doing in Miami.

Why not just subtract the one? Is anyone going to be that heartbroken if the Marlins get contracted?

It'd be a shame though, since I enjoy the NL Brewers way more.

BA/Runs 0.721855692
OBP/Runs 0.850594279
SLG/Runs 0.872703042
OPS/Runs 0.944390636
BB/Runs 0.598251962
K/Runs 0.370016655

As far as teams moving, my guess would be that Vegas would be at the top of the list of locations for any "failed" team.

I get the feeling that if their young core could put together a contending year, they would attract a following. The Marlins have contended several times and won it all twice, and it hardly makes a difference to anyone in South Florida.

17 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
19 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto
20 Orlando-Daytona Beach
23 Portland, Oregon
25 Indianapolis
27 Charlotte
28 Hartford-New Haven
29 Raleigh-Durham
30 Nashville
32 Columbus, Ohio
35 Greenville-Spartanburg, Asheville, Anderson
36 Salt Lake City
37 San Antonio
38 West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce
39 Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo
40 Birmingham
41 Harrisburg-Lancaster
42 Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News
43 New Orleans
44 Memphis
45 Oklahoma City
46 Albuquerque-Santa Fe
47 Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem, NC
48 Las Vegas
49 Buffalo
50 Louisville, KY

My hunch is if any team moved, it would be to Portland but there is still value in having a franchise in Miami.

Much has been made of the speed of the Angels and their ability to advance base runners. Perhaps they have a high base-advance average, which accounts for their ability to score runs. It's highly correlated to runs scored and winning games:

www.retrosheet.org/Research/HardegreeG/Base-Advance-Average.pdf

See also www.basesproduced.com, which has a similar concept. The Angels rank 4th in bases produced average this year and 8th in base production average (pitching stat). The only other teams in the top 10 on both lists are the Red Sox and Mets.

The Dodgers are 20th in bases produced average and 3rd in base production average. They are a good pitching, poor hitting team.

Hopefully Wells is dressed like a sailor at his place right now to ensure success tonight.

http://alyssa.mlblogs.com/alyssa/2007/09/tbs_hot_corner_.html

You don't need complicated statistical analysis to ascertain the truth of this statement.

I wonder why do Ned and Grady keep thinking the team benefits from repeatedly benching their best hitters? Grady should practice these words in front of the mirror:

"Luis, he gets more hits than you do now. 2001 was a long time ago."

"Rafael, we love your defense, but until you're feeling better, I need someone who can get more hits."

"Juan, I love you like a son, but if I don't put a better hitter out there, I might get fired."

"Nomar, all good things come to an end. Take your hitting for example."

9 Atlanta 2,097,220
10 Houston 1,938,670
11 Detroit 1,936,350
12 Tampa-St. Pete 1,710,400
13 Seattle-Tacoma 1,701,950
14 Phoenix 1,660,430
15 Minneapolis-St. Paul 1,652,940
16 Cleveland-Akron 1,541,780
17 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 1,522,960
18 Denver 1,415,180

San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati are even lower.

I looked at 2007 data earlier today and found that OBP explains 78% of the variation in Runs. I added SLG to the model and it explains an additional 12 percent, for a total of 90.4%.

For reasons that I'll not try to explain, you shouldn't include OBP, SLG, and OPS in the same model. You should either includ OBP and SLG, or OPS by itself.

In terms of ability to predict runs,

OPS > OBP > SLG

It would be fun to watch a team scratching one run at a time and then boom walk boom k k walk boom.

OPS > OBP > SLG"

Thanks! And we know that an "awful lot of hits" trumps all!!

The explanatory power of OBP has gone up relative to SLG from 2006 to 2007.

2007
OBP explains 78% of Runs
SLG explains 12%

2006
OBP 64%
SLG 24%

You may recall the well-known conclusion associated with Depo that OBP is roughly 3 times as important as SLG. Well, from what I can tell, that factor varies by season. In 2006 (without controlling for any other factors), OBP was roughly 2.67 times as important; in 2007, OBP is roughly 6.5 times as important.

I've seen it generally recommended that you increase a young pitchers workload by about 20 innings a year until he can throw a full season. However, what effect does throwing less innings one year to the next have? Bills threw 171 innings last year between Vegas and LA, and if he makes three more starts this year, he'll finish with about 153.

I can see the logic in using him as a long reliever at the start of this year, but we babied him way too much, and it could end up costing us both the pennant, and be determental to his future.

Man who is pitching that game?

He did, however, mention Logan White and DeJon Watson.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/09/13/thursday.scoop/index.html

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3017538

Oakland and SF will probably fight Sacto for similar reasons.

So yeah, Portland, Indy, or Charlotte makes sense.

The appropriate way to measure the contribution of each is to look at the standardized regression coefficient. OBP still comes out ahead of SLG, but not by nearly as much as I said earlier.

I make a lot of mistakes in math/stats. Always have.

For example, this could explain why Matt Kemp, and to a lesser extent James Loney, have, and will continue to have high OBP's with low walk rates.

Oden likely to miss season

>> Trail Blazers announce that the 7-foot center -- the No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft -- has undergone microfracture surgery on his right knee. Full recovery is expected to take six to 12 months. <<

http://tinyurl.com/2e84hh

http://alyssa.mlblogs.com/

Except for you Joe Buck fans.

Also, do you know where I can find league averages for GB, FB, and LD%? I know Fangraphs has the data for individual players, but I didn't see the averages there.

151 Yep, it works differently than pitchers.

That is probably not fair to do that but his little dribblers and slow rollers do add up to something.

For you DT'ers outside So Cal heres the streaming link:

http://www.570klac.com/pages/streaming.html

I imagine that gambling concerns is why there are no NFL, NBA or NHL teams in Vegas. One would think taking all their games off the books would be good enough, but I guess not.

As far as Billingsley's innings pitched being limited this year due to a long stint in middle relief. It could be that last year he pitched too many innings, not that he pitched too few this year.

Some good "baseball" discussion going on today. Keep up the good work.
vr, Xei

*Ned C. (Chavez Ravine: I'm not totally sold on this kid Loney. Do you know if Travis Lee is available?

Keith Law: ...and Dodgers fans should be apoplectic at the thought of losing Logan White.*

I meant Monday as in the day, Monday.

But man, are you in topic on DT, good for you.

It was a formula based on how many wins a team could expect based on the years before or something like that.

Ethier must have read my comment last night! :) I didn't make it up, but I don't remember where I first heard the term. All I know is Sean Salisbury brought up the term last night on ESPN Radio, which ruined any credibility for the term.

Was three relatively good or relatively bad...?

The Torre-Jackson combo was really good.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_sombrero

He never struck out six times in a game.

And would you believe "Get Smart" is back on the air in the LA/OC area.

Jeff Jenkins struck out six times against Angels pitching in 2004.

Billy Cowan struck out six times against Oakland in 1971.

Rick Reichardt struck out six times against Cleveland in 1966.

http://tinyurl.com/2kf28f

201. regfairfield:
I never thought I'd say this, but let's get Shea Hillenbrand.

208. Steve
201 -- my thoughts exactly

Even the one they don't show in reruns in the L.A. area because it all revolves around a joke that the CONTROL computer can't tell the difference between a Chinese and Japanese person.

I think amnesty is called for.

Who would have guessed that Washington may be the one team that could the Bruins from being undefeated when they face Cal.

I worry about Shipp guarding 2s and our lack of guard depth.

Now I have to find a melon baller to fix the burning in my eyes.

Of course the 2006 version of Shea would be nice right about now.

The Lakers are stuck in mediocrity. And we will be as long as Jim Buss is running things. Even when Kobe bolts, I do not trust Jim to make good draft picks when we are in the lottery. Andrew Bynum the savior, my butt.

At least for the next 10-20 years.

218 - I'm guessing it will as well. As far as baseball goes, the 51s play there in an open air stadium, but they could always go with the retractable dome a la the Diamondbacks.

Teams in Vegas will happen eventually, but it's going to take some work on the part of the city and the league.

John (Chicago, IL): Joe, who do you think, in your opinion, is going to represent the AL in the World Series this year and why? I like Boston because they have the best run differential in baseball and their pitching top to bottom has been statistically the best all year. What do you think?

Joe Morgan: Well the run differential means nothing. It is like OPS, it mean nothing in the grander scheme of things. (...)

And this:

I do not think this one year proves anything, but the As playoff failures over the years demonstrate that you cannot win it all under that approach

But what about Ned's take on the matter? Does he want to be the Dodger GM? On one hand, the obvious answer is "Yes", because he's getting paid to do the job. But you gotta wonder: is a team with a bunch of young players really the kinda team he would choose to GM if given his druthers? Wouldn't he probably prefer a situation where he could bring in all the Nomars and Hillenbrands he wanted with little to no objection? Not to mention that he spent a lot of time with the Giants and then went to their hated rival.

All of which is to say that we have implicitly assumed that Ned would stay as long as McCourt wanted him to. But maybe, just maybe, there's a chance he'd leave on his own, if a situation opened up that was more to his liking.

He plays the veterans because he trusts them more. I do not think he hates youngsters. I think he loves the fact he is in the big LA market and has a good payroll.

Colletti isn't even a San Francisco native. So I can't picture he has any more loyalty to that city than any other.

Uh oh... it's go time!

Bob Bob Bob... That is not a mistake I would've expected out of you!

It was Edwin Stanton whom Andrew Johnson tried to whack with the Tenure of Office Act.

Was Dan Evans more loyal to the White Sox? Was Kevin Malone more loyal to the Orioles or Expos?

He was going after the wrong man.

And the Baseball Gods wept, or cheered, it's hard to tell when gods are laughing and when they're crying.

David Wells theoretically could lose both the first and last games of the 2007 Dodgers-Padres series.

The happy is just as wet as the sad.

You shouldn't get rings for "making it to the World Series" anyway. What was that?

=)

I think it's tacky, just like teams who put up banners for winning division titles, even wildcards!

http://promoteloganwhite.wordpress.com/

Hey, I'm also a Rams fan, and I wouldn't want any part of a banner commemorating the '80 and '02 Superbowls.

And what gives you the right to call me a snob for having this opinion?

269. Excellent. Once they get 30 signatures, McCourt will have no choice but to listen to the masses! Err...he has heard of "sample size," right? ;)

Good news: I've decided that the Patriots have to forfeit that because they're a buncha cheaters.

Me too. The Giants didn't win the pennant in '51 for the same reason.

Monterey, Mexico has a beautiful stadium & the city is also really nice, I remember the Rockies playing there once when Vinni Castilla was with them, I was taking back on how well the stadium looked (compared to some others) that would be the ideal city for me.

I think you need to walk like Jack Cust to fan that many times and find success in the bigs, and even then, I would almost guarantee that Cust will set the single season strike out record next year if he plays full time.

...anymore than wearing a tacky pelt on one's head.

That was the greatest moment in UCLA basketbal when I was there.

But all those effete Wooden Era snobs made them take it down.

All of them and their fancy "Lew Alcindor this" and "Bill Walton that" and "Gail Goodrich this."

In my day, Brad Wright was the greatest center to EVER play for UCLA and there's no one who can change my mind about that.

Furcal, SS
Pierre, CF
Loney, 1B
Kent, 2B
Gonzo, LF
Martin, C
Kemp, RF
Abreu, 3B
Wells, P

http://tinyurl.com/2wwgxc

The only thing Logan White has proven that he's very very good at is amateur scouting and listening to his scouts and coming up with a great draft strategy.

As a GM he would do none of the things he currently excels at. He would have to hire someone. While he may be great at figuring out which 18 year olds will become major league players, I don't quite see how that is relevant to being a GM.

Have any other scouting directors who were great at their job gone on to become successful general managers?

I'm just curious why the consensus seems to be that he'd be a great GM.

It reminded me of that old SNL sketch when Joe Pesci was trying on different pinky rings.

CT: Why did you decide that Earl was no longer a viable first name?

Carlyle: I don't have a kingdom, so I figured after three, we should shut it down.

However, I believe an earl rules a duchy.

It's over on the left.

I imagine the "promote Logan White" is based heavily on 1) making sure Logan White doesn't leave the Dodgers and 2) getting rid of NedCo (ie, he'd be better than NedCo). I have no idea how Logan White is at other GM stuff.

Ng and White seem to have complementary skill sets.

That said the fancy T-Shirt thing boggles the mind.

No one was more surprised that he played both NCAA Division 1 and NBA basketball than me and my friends.

Student tickets, baby. Should be an awesome year. The home non-conference schedule might not be too interesting, but conference games will be great.

That's Jon rule #17.

Or maybe one of the Ten Commandments.

I get them confused.

I think it was 5-7 rows up.

284

I am too tired to care anymore about the outfield shuffle. I expect it now and save my excitement/energy for when Ethier and Kemp are both playing as they should.

I got this from my buddy, "football boy":

"400 people at a MLB game? Wow! More proof that either baseball needs to stop the regular season in September or Miami doesn't need a baseball team. There you go…"

:\

At Bats - 20
Hits - 7
round trippers - 1
OB% - .350
SLG - .550
Batting Average - .350

http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/22587

What would the reaction be if we lost both White and Ng within the next few weeks? I would assume that Lajoie, Lovelace, Howell, Weidemaier, Watson, and Hallgren would start playing more important roles, though I know very little about any of them. Lajoie strikes me as a old-timer PVL type of guy (though outside of the Smoltz trade, I'm not sure I have much reason to believe this). Other than him, I know very little about any of the other guys. What exactly do Lovelace, Howell, and Weidemaier do? And how much of a role did Hallgren really play in this season's draft?

It sounds like a JoeyP job Fanerman, it's pretty weird cause he posted it a minute before my post.

And it sounded to me like Logan White saw his interview as a learning experience.

In the winter of 2005 would you have predicted failure for both McPherson and Howard? If not, what shows up in Howards numbers that would have made you think he could overcome his K Rate?

Just trying to learn, not being snotty.

who is JoeyP anyway?? we seem to blame him for everything.

While I make fun of Ned and Kim for entertainment purposes only, I think they are all on the same page and that Tommy is the one looking in from the outside. He only has a few years left, it would be in his self-interest to trade the kids for instant gratification and Tommy is all about self-interest. JMO