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Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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Maybe he was re-signed and it'll be announced soon?
Maybe it's just a mistake by whomever inputs the roster at Dodgers.com. Up until yesterday, David Wells and Luis Gonzalez were also listed on the 40-man, among others, even though they already declared free agency.
That said, I wouldn't mind Sweeney coming back. He'll probably sign in the $800k - $1m range.
Jeff Kent is going to blow in 2008 and if I wasn't a Dodger fan I'd probably enjoy it very much. No 2nd baseman in the Post-Integration era has ever posted an OPS+ > 105 at the age of 40. Wouldn't you say with Kent's defense he has to post at least an OPS+ > 115 to even be on the field? Look at what Biggio did at age 39 and what happened to him at age 40. Some things you just can't stop. Sucking at 40 is one of them.
Assuming Kent puts up a 25 VORP this year (down from 40 and change) and a -15 (down from -13 this year) on defense, Abreu would have to be at +15, pretty close to elite defensively, to match his production. (You're going to have to trust me on this math for now, I'll do a further writeup in a few days).
Age / Biggio OPS+ / Kent OPS+
35 / 110 / 119
36 / 88 / 122
37 /96 / 133
38 / 104 / 119
39 / 104 / 121
40 / 84 / TBD
I think the Dodgers will be just fine at 2B in 2008. Kent will probably play 120 games or so, with Abreu filling in the balance (and will spell Kent defensively in late innings of most games).
I'd be willing to bet Kent posts an OPS+ of at least 110 next season.
Predicated on Pierre not batting eighth, and no new 3B:
Furcal
Pierre
Kemp
Loney
Martin
Kent
Ethier
LaRoche
If LaRoche and Ethier rake, so much the better.
Stan from Tacoma
I'll take that bet provided he garners more then 350 plate appearances.
Dare to dream:
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Kemp
Ethier
LaRoche
Abreu
Pierre
or
Furcal
Martin
Loney
Rodriguez
Kemp
Ethier
Abreu
Pierre
Really, there isn't much thought that needs to go into the Dodger offense - other than how to get Pierre out of the lineup.
Provided he reaches a minimum of 350 PA, Kent will have an OPS+ of 110. Shall we bet the cost of a ticket to 2009 DT Day?
Furcal
Ethier
Kemp
Loney
A Jones
LaRoche
Martin
Abreu/Hu
That would be one of the best up the middle defenses with pop from every spot in the lineup except 2nd base.
(sigh)
Mark me down for dos.
Why not let Martin leadoff?
Hopefully the Dodgers can capitalize on a potentially diminishing market for Andruw, the better player of the two.
Good by me.
http://tinyurl.com/29krvx
Outside of Baltimore, is there any other team that would take Pierre?
If A-Rod was signed, The O's would jump at the opportunity to get LaRoche, and Pierre would fill a hole (snicker) for them.....Maybe Pittsburgh?....Doubt Snell could be had for that....
Pierre and LaRoche for minor leage arms...
Furcal SS
Martin C
Loney 1B
A-Rod SS
Kemp CF
Kent(sometimes abreu to the 8th spot) 2B
Ethier RF
Young LF
ah, such a dream....
I like the two shortstop alignment.
It's edgy.
His overall line in 2007 was .222/.311/.413/.724, which at least features an ISOd of .089. Still his ISOp was down 121 points from his peak in 2005 and his average was the lowest its been since 106 at bats his rookie year. His BABIP is only .248, well below the expected BABIP .292 for his 27.2 LD%, though he has been way under 3 years in a row. The real problem is that his HR/FB is down from the 20s in 05 and 06 to only 13.4% in 07. That is a huge decrease in power and since he doesn't seem likely to ever hit for average to be worth the contract he will no doubt get he will need to hit 35+ home runs a year. I worry that he won't get back there, but I still prefer him to Torii Hunter.
SS
SS
or this way:
SS SS
I agree.
And I'm not excited about it.
"His ceiling is probably somewhere around .300/.380/.470 ..."
Just for comparison, Andre Ethier 2006:
.308/.365/.477 113 OPS+
Similar ceiling?
"...I'd expect something more in the .280/.360/.430 neighboorhood"
Just for comparison, Andre Ethier 2007:
.284/.350/.452 103 OPS+
Same neighborhood.
Good show on both ends; yours to retrieve the Blackberry and make the effort to reunite it with its owner, and his for showing good etiquette and appreciation. My faith in humankind is restored.
No, don't reserve judgment. It's always better to shoot first and ask questions later.
That's my philosophy in life and six acquittals in court must prove that I'm right!
Torre and his coaches might decide the real problem on the team isn't Kemp or Kent, but Pierre.
They set some benchmarks for him, like increasing the number of pitches he's supposed to take.
Pierre fails to reach benchmark and otherwise doesn't improve.
He's benched.
Jones Kemp and Ethier lead the team on a tear through the national league. (or Young)
Pierre is given another chance, results like before. Benched.
Jones Kemp and Ethier lead the team on another tear through the NL.
Colletti says, Joe, what should I do.
Joe says, he's worthless, I can't use him. Put him on waivers. Hopefully someone will take him off your hands for 50 cents on the dollar and a low level prospect. Otherwise, just eat him.
Ned says, thank you Father.
Joe says, now go and sin no more.
>> Wyoming coach Joe Glenn apologized Monday for making an obscene gesture to the Utah team after the Utes tried an onside kick while ahead by 43 points. <<
http://tinyurl.com/2ndcqd
Wyoming's coach had been quite vocal during the week about how badly his team would beat Utah.
Both of whom have humiliating losses to Utah on their resumes.
Because the Wyoming coach guaranteed a win.
>> "When I spoke to Omar,'' Wright said, "he told me, `Be prepared to be the third baseman in 2008. That's what I took from it and that's the way I'm going about it.
"Alex Rodriguez's name did not come up at any point.'' <<
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21759896
Apparently a meeting is being held right now to fix that problem.
At least, it better be about getting rid of a certain person.
He'll be back.
>> 6. Torii Hunter to the Dodgers
Juan Pierre is still under contract, but he's a massive liability for the Dodgers. He's terrible at the plate and roundly overrated with the glove. Yes, he's only one year into that deliriously stupid five-year, $44 million contract, but it's time to treat him as a sunk cost. That means unloading him for whatever you can get (rosin bags, used jocks, canned wine) or relegating him to a reserve role. Playing Pierre on a daily basis will only compound such a bad decision. Throughout baseball last season, only the White Sox endured worse production from center field, so the Dodgers badly need an upgrade. That brings us to Hunter. Defensively Hunter is exceptional, and he'd also provide L.A. with some much-needed power. Hunter's also more of a known quantity than the other premier center fielder on the market, Andruw Jones. <<
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7431662
Rivera, who turns 38 on Nov. 29, said Monday if he couldn't reach a deal with New York, he would consider following manager Joe Torre to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The closer is expected to receive a three-year contract. "The Yankees are my first option," he said in Santo Domingo. "But if that is not possible, there is Joe with the Dodgers."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21754425/
62 - Why? I mean why? 3 years? Seriously? Why?
Is Joe the de facto GM, or just with respect to the acquisition of former Yankees?
The problem with that story is the fact that JP won't be traded. I just can't see Ned trading him unless he could convince Baltimore to put together a package with Tejada. I would be for a salary dump with Pierre, but just don't see that happening.
I think every day forward from here increases the likelihood that Kent will not return. And personally, that doesn't bother me a bit. I've never liked the guy and think that his defensive liability will outweigh his offensive production next year.
Other than that, I really just don't know what the team should do beyond pick up a spot starter/long reliever type to round out the rotation. I'd like to see Young get a chance along with Ethier and Kemp, and I have this feeling that Hunter and/or Jones is going to be more trouble than they're worth.
University of Mary vs South Dakota State
Florida A&M vs Carver Bible College
Ecclesia vs Central Arkansas
Paul Quinn vs Troy
At least one of the schools listed above is a Division I school.
Do we even need him?
Ned will survive if the Dodgers win the division in 2008. If they don't, trying to spin Pierre as a positive isn't going to save him. It'll have to be some other liferaft.
In addition to Professionalism, Leadership, Winnerocity, HavingBeenThereBeforeNess, etc., I wonder if Torre will also bring the following:
An expectation that the payroll is unlimited and ownership will spare no expense to acquire "his" players.
...?
>> "He holds players accountable for how they play, a butt-kicker that some of the young guys need. <<
http://www.sacbee.com/100/story/485277.html
They said they jumped the gun and it was a scheduled meeting to essentially get the recruits to feel comfortable with everyone associated with athletic department and the players. Also, they will be bringing recruits to tonight's basketball game.
Who knows what they told the recruits though, regarding coaching situation. Seems to be a lot of rumors that Walker is going to get the job and he is going to bring in an offensive coordinator from the NFL.
Better than Rich Brooks, I guess.
That's one of the numbers I'd like to see, runs due to error for fielders. And then do a ratio to runs created offensively. Adding his poor rating in the (+/-) ranking, I don't think Kent would look as valuable.
Colletti explores free-agent options
>> But Colletti left open the possibility of signing a free-agent center fielder or third baseman. He wouldn't discuss any specific player.
The need for a center fielder would arise if the Dodgers, as expected, move weak-armed Juan Pierre to left. Pierre's potential replacements include Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand. If the Dodgers fail to lure one of them, they could move Matt Kemp from right to center. <<
## The prize at third base would be Alex Rodriguez, but Colletti said the Dodgers still haven't decided whether they will pursue him. Rodriguez could cost more than $30 million a season. ##
%% Right-hander Chin-hui Tsao, who was out-righted to triple-A Las Vegas on Friday, elected free agency %%
http://tinyurl.com/3x77ua
Also, when my buddy and I were brainstorming, we couldn't come up with someone good. The bet I came up with was Mike Price.
Colletti said he considered the Dodgers' present options at third base to be viable. He said he is hoping that Nomar Garciaparra will recapture his 2006 form, when he was the National League comeback player of the year, and that he has been encouraged by the performances of Andy LaRoche at the Baseball World Cup in Taiwan.
Looks like another "kick the door down" situation for LaRoche. I just hope he hits .630 in spring training.
Roll Tide, anyone?