ToyCannon, regarding your latest TrueBlue post, does a 10D ranking imply a 9A ranking as well?

I always respected that Jake said, "Enough!" and left to go do something more fun, leaving behind a lot of money to be a backup somewhere so he could follow another dream on his own terms. That's cool.
---

Not sure if this was mentioned in previous thread, but since people were talking about Dan Haren (and I can't believe the A's would trade him) an the A's, Jeff Passan has a new column on how it's harder for Beane to fleece other GMs for their young prospects these days:
http://tinyurl.com/38y2pe

>>Not too long ago, Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane could count on his peers to make him look smart. An entire book was written about Beane's brilliance at attacking market inefficiencies while his brethren waltzed with tradition, and Moneyball resonated because that premise, by and large, was sound.

So to hear Beane talking from his office Thursday was to hear a man who recognizes the seismic change baseball has undergone in this financial boom era. No longer is the hoarding of quality young players – baseball's equivalent to the minimum-wage worker – the domain of well-managed low-revenue teams such as Oakland and Minnesota.

"People are actually understanding the economics of the game," Beane said. "There are a lot of smart guys running clubs. Properly valuing the assets you have is really part of the business now."<<

Derick McKamey in essence: The Dodgers system still kicks ass.

1 I can't believe that's true. Delmon Young seems like a good example of a 10D, but he certainly has less than a 90% chance of being an elite player as well.

I didn't know that people played handball that much anymore. I thought the last person to play it was Dennis Becker.

minorleaguebaseball.com just posted their top 50 prospects compilation.

Kershaw is getting insane hype...from all corners of the prospecting community.

Looks like I was posting my comment to the last thread as Jon was putting together this post. To repeat what I said: I too want to wish Vin and Ross a Happy Birthday and to thank them for all the enjoyment they have provided me over the years. The trio of Vin, Ross and Don Drysdale was one of the best radio play by play booths of all time. The duo of Vin and Jerry was terrific too.

Stan from Tacoma

6 Purely a figment of their imagination.

From Ken Rosenthal--

The Astros likely will insert Matsui, a switch-hitter, into the No. 2 hole behind their newly acquired leadoff man, Michael Bourn. The addition of an offensively skilled second baseman virtually ensures that the team will retain Adam Everett, a weak hitter, at shortstop.

How can Kaz Matsui be considered offensively skilled?

Career: .272/.325/.387

The mainstream baseball media is just flat out lazy. Or ignorant. Or Both.

The Astros current GM has no concept of building offense.

1
A 10E would be closer to a 9A. I'm sure it is very subjective at that point.

Being one person he does not have the ability to see everyone he writes about. However he is based in the midwest so he was able to watch our Midwest Low A team quite a bit. Others from HQ also took in quite a few Loon games. The love they have for Kershaw knows no bounds.

2 - the last line of your quote is interesting, "Properly valuing the assets you have..."

That implies, at least in my mind, re-signing players who have performed well and project to perform well in the future. The A's haven't really done that in the last few years.

I get the "low revenue" argument, but there is an old business proverb: you've got to spend money to make money. Put together a good team, show commitment to keeping good/great players, and the fans will come and revenue will increase. It seems to be a chicken and egg paradox. I suspect that while the baseball operations of most teams have gotten better, the business operations of most teams is still terrible... looking at the "advertising" of the Angels and Dodgers the last few years (LA Angels of Anaheim vs "This is LA baseball" and choosing the wrong guys to build marketing campaigns around - Nomar, Kent, Hendy).

9 It's just Ken Rosenthal's weekly wrong-headed statement. Pay it no attention.

We played team handball in gym class for a few days when I was in 9th grade; I thought it was pretty fun. One kid who had never distinguished himself athletically at anything else turned out to be a good team handball goalie. He even started bringing in special team handball gloves (actually just his snowmobile gloves, I think).

Dirk Nowitzki initially planned to follow his Olympian father into team handball; he thought basketball was for girls.

13 - Now that I think about it, we might have tried it in high school a few times too.

he thought basketball was for girls

...with good fundamentals.

When he stops playing like a girl maybe the Mavericks can beat the likes of the Warriors in the playoffs.

Mets just traded Lasting Milledge for Ryan Church/Brian Scheider.

Its not linked, but it looks like a done deal. WFAN reporting it in NY.

Jon, did you have fun playing the sport before your friend lost his teeth? It always looked like fun when I've watched it during the olympics.
When I look at sports that other countries have I would have loved to play Rugby when I was a kid.

At this point the Dodgers would rather have Kershaw than Hochevar. How about that turn of events!

18 - I liked Ultimate more, but I was having fun.

17 So, how is that not a terrible idea?

17
Nice, Bowden has really had a nice couple of years since he made the mistake of not trading Soriano.
An outfield of Kearns/Milledge/Wily Mo built with spare parts.

17

Kazmir for Zambrano!!!

Looks like teams are giving up on their free-swinging no-plate discipline youngsters rather soon nowadays...

Seriously, Milledge is good (or will be good). I don't understand this.

24

That description of Milledge is not true at all.

Carlos Gomez? yes.

yeah, but he gives fans high fives after good innings, you can't have something like that going on. I mean, the next thing you know, fan will actually like guys on your team and want to see them play, even if they're younger guys who have yet to break the door down, rather than the PVL so many GMs are willing to run out there.

Wow, the rain as apparently kicked up my snark gland.

24 Milledge hit .306/.380/.480 in the minors.

"I... knew the rules from having been something of an Olympics nerd at the time."

Do Olympic nerds have crushes on Mary Decker Slaney? This "Olympic nerd" comment needs to be fleshed out, Jon. Sounds like an under-reported part of your life.

Milledge isnt Delmon Young level of hacking, but in terms of drawing walks Milledge is still probably only average.

He's really only had 1 good season in that regard--his AAA year in 2006.

His mlb line so far: .257/.326/.414
350 Abs
25 bbs/81 ks.

I remember watching Milledge in the AFL in 2005. Man he looked good.

Anyway I asked Deric about the questionable 40 man roster decision the Dodgers made in relation to Mario Alveraz and this was his reply.
That was a bit strange, especially when they outrighted Zach Hammes, who I think is a way better pitcher, off the 40-man to accomodate him. The only thing I can see is that they like his athleticism and velocity. His secondary pitches (curveball and change-up) are marginal at best and has always been very hittable. At best, he top-out as a middle/short reliever.

How's Milledge defensively? If he's any good, it's quite possible he's already better than Church.

30 That's still an isolated patience of .079, the average right fielder was .070 last year.

Milledge hasnt shown much home run power, and he's not a base stealer by any means.

Maybe the Mets think his ceiling isnt very high, especially with the lack of home run power.

29
No one who has ever met Mary Decker would maintain a crush on her.

29 - No, I just had a fixation about minor sports. One of my screenplays has a biathlete as the main character.

Funny how Kemp was the after thought in 2005 and Milledge was the hot shot and only two years later, Milledge is traded for a defensive catcher and a 4th outfielder, while Kemp is the centerpiece of every deal that involves Miggy, Johan, Haren, and Bedard.

Church is a nice player and I am surprised that Moreno wanted him. He would certainly be an upgrade over Shawn Green but so would have Lasting.

33

the average right fielder also wasn't around 22 years old.

If he wanted Church couldn't he have just signed Brad Wilkerson and kept Lasting, or use Lasting as a chip for Blanton or Haren?

Has there been a ritual suicide scheduled for all the BTF Mets fanboys? Or has their messiah been replaced by Carlos Gomez?

It is amazing how fast these guys lose their buying power.

If the best thing Milledge can fetch is Church/Schneier, I only hope Kemp maintains his buying value if we do trade him.

Although, trades like this set up the inevitable excuses for trading Kemp and not getting back as much as we want---"Well, look the Mets only got back Church for Milledge...thats the market, etc etc..."

41

Was Kazmir's value only of a Victor Zambrano?

GM's do stupid things sometimes.

40

Not yet! I am anxiously waiting for the thread.

Team handball is very popular in Scandinavia. I played it quite a bit during P.E. when I went to school there.

The sport always looked really, really lame to me, mostly because Europeans, well, they throw like Europeans. I think if you took a group of Americans who grew up both playing basketball and pitching in Little League, you could go over there and compete pretty well.

39 Church is much better than Wilkerson. Wilkerson hasn't been good since 2004.

Delmon Young and Milledge being traded in the same week, at age 22, is really amazing considering that in the year up the the 2003 draft there was a huge debate about who was the best HS player in the country, Young or Milledge.

45

I agree. This has been a really interesting week for prospect followers.

I definitely could understand the logic behind the Delmon for Garza trade but this one....I guess I'm glad we have Colletti?

46 -- But did Omar really want to do this? I see some Mets fan at BTF is blaming the Wilpons, and he says he has long thought the Kazmir trade was on the Wilpons' order too. I think we overestimate the autonomy of GM's sometimes. And I am not sure Colletti has suddenly decided he loves youth as much as McCourt is keeping him on a bit of a leash when it comes to trading away our young talent.

46 - While it is early enough in the offseason that we don't know his master plan, it is clear that Ned has changed his approach quite a bit from the years past. He has always favored having backup-backup plans, but everything is pointing towards him letting the kids play this year. The biggest move of the offseason might be made in spring training if the Dodgers let Laroche show what he can do at 3B. I haven't crunched the numbers, but that might improve the team as much as an Andruw for Pierre swap.

I saw Milledge play several times in AAA and was sure he would be an instant MLB star. I guess that's why I'm not a baseball scout.

Where would people put Milledge with Guzman, as far as once rising stars that faded? (in the eyes of their original teams anyway) Does Lastings still rank ahead of Joel? I'm just curious. It's clear to me that LM still has a world of talent, but that the Mets had also soured on him - fair or not. It's similar to Guzman at least in that a player that once could have been the centerpiece of a big trade instead only a short time later becomes part of a mediocre trade.

Walt Jocketty would not have done this: old friend Izturis signed to replace Eckstein

http://tinyurl.com/yrsy7l

51 For one year, I think it's a good deal. The massive improvement in defense should make up for the loss of offense.

I think Milledge is 22 years old. Way too early to give up on him.

52
But

Heart + Offense >>>>> Defense

50 - Guzman's stats are way less impressive than you think though. He had a great power hitting season in high A (.307/.349/.550/.899) when people though he might make it as a SS. But his numbers went down in AA (.280/.325/.522) and it became obvious he wasn't going to stick there and he was free falling before we even realized it. He can't hit for average and he doesn't take a walk, but that flukey .300 batting average in A+ made it seem like he could be a .900 OPS guy. I don't think Guzman is in a funk, he was just way overrated because of his dubious position and his pedigree.

On the other hand, Milledge has hit for average throughout his career, he can take a walk and there is a good chance he can play a premiere defensive position. His floor is Andre Ethier with more patience, less power, and his ceiling is something like the good Johnny Damon.

55 Thanks.
To be clear, I was actually not as high on Guzman as some, but was curious how the two of them compare, given they seem to have met similar fates with their original teams. Sounds like the Mets gave up too much for too little (though I kinda like Ryan Church).

55 - But AA is more of a pitcher's environment than A. Hitting .280 in AA does anything but make his .307 average in A+ "flukey."

I still think Guzman, though overrated a few years back because of the lack of walks, is underrated now. The position switch has cost him value, but he's a 22-year-old (23 last week) coming off nearly two years of AAA experience. He's still playing at an advanced level for his age, and I think he can still have a decent career.

57 - It isn't just that his average went down in AA, but that it has never cracked .300 again before or since. His career minor league batting average is .267. The only other time he got close to .300 was batting .297 in the PCL.

57 His BABIP was .367 , so it probably was a bit fluky.

58 - .297 is pretty darn close to .300. And he did that as a 21-year-old. And he did it only one year ago. I mean, not that BA should be the measuring stick at all, but you're splitting hairs.

Remember, Loney hit .279/.345/.382 in AAA this season. Now he's practically untouchable.

It's one thing to say that Guzman was overrated, but I don't think his performance in A ball was a fluke. I think it was misinterpeted by people who chose to ignore his lack of walks and the inevitability that he would change positions.

Guzman was 19 and a SS in A+ with almost a .900 OPS. That is amazing, but Vero is a crazy good hitters park (especially for home runs). Once you realize that Guzman is a corner outfielder his numbers don't seem that impressive. Kemp OPSed .917 there with 27 home runs, Laroche OPSed 1031 with 21 home runs and Martin hit 15 home runs there (he never cracked double digits anywhere else in his minor league career). They were one or two years older, and those are all really good players, but Guzman was hyped as the best of them all and it took a long time for it to dawn on us that he wasn't that good. I am not saying he is done, but I do think he was always overrated.

59 - Which year?

The winter meetings are here in Nashville? What rock have I been under?!

Maybe I can go and have a chat with the GM. :-) At this point I'm interested in if Yhency threw a session and what he looked like.

60 - The sad truth is that Loney probably didn't try very hard in AAA this year. Or at the very least, he was distracted to the point that I don't think his numbers are indicative of anything. His performance in AAA this year is completely out of whack with what he had been doing for the year before and the rest of the year when he came up.

62 His age 19 year in high A.

64 - "The sad truth is that Loney probably didn't try very hard in AAA this year. Or at the very least, he was distracted to the point that I don't think his numbers are indicative of anything."

In other words, Loney maybe was in a funk. Not that they're the same ballplayer, but maybe Guzman was too.

65 - Was it high in Jacksonville too? An .847 OPS there is strong as far as I know.

Basically, the bothersome thing for me with Guzman is that so many people have trouble (not necessarily you) accepting a middle ground on him. He was either great or he sucks.

67 No, for some reason he actually got his strikeouts under control there for the only time in his career.

66 - I think you are right that Guzman is in a funk right now. There is no way that he is a sub-.700 OPS player. I think the way he was dumped might have been a huge blow to his confidence. On the other hand, unlike Loney, he has never proven anything on the major league level so he better snap out of it soon or it's going to slip away.

"Giants question Marlins' demands for Cabrera deal"

http://www.miamiherald.com/591/story/326533.html

''I hate to speak to somebody else's business, but you wonder if they really want to trade the player or if they absolutely, positively have to win the deal in such a one-sided fashion,'' San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean said during a conference call Thursday with reporters. ``Maybe they're not going to get something done. I don't know.''

66 I think Loney got a pass because he performed well in his call up while Guzman didn't. Small sample size disclaimer and all that.

71 I can't really think of any deal involving the Giants organization for Cabrera that would be that unfair. Maybe Cain and Lincecum and Lowry, but that's about it.

68 - At this point I see a player with a lot of power potential (16 homers this year), but no contact skills and no patience. He is at an advanced level at a decent age, but I wonder if he couldn't use a trip back down to AA to concentrate on making good contact and working the count.

68 - Maybe that comes from the fact that Guzman never really put together a "middle ground" year. He's either been an 800+ OPSing SS young for his league, or a 650 OPSing man without a position that can't control the strike zone. His 85 games in '06 at AAA, where he OPS'd 814 while playing the OF and 1B is about the only time he's been close to an "average" player.

I think '08 is a make or break year for him.

70 He was dumped? He wasn't dumped, he was part of a trade. There are minor league prospects dealt every year and they have to accept the fact that they are the currency in baseball. Its harsh but that is what it eventually comes down to in the end.

How do we know what kind of player he is, certainly Delmon Young performed better at Durham, Longoria too, and there are probably several players who were not as highly ranked as they advanced who have adjusted and played well in AAA.

Joel Guzman has time on his side but as he sits on his last option year, he will need to show something in 2008.

70 - Well, you can't do it without a chance. Loney wouldn't have seen the majors before September if Garciaparra hadn't tanked.

72 - If Laroche had 7 home runs in 50 at bats, or whatever it was that Kemp had, or if he had 9 RBI in one game then he would already be the 3B. Instead he showed incredible patience but no flash and he still has to unseat Nomar. It is unbelievably unfair that young players are expected to be good right away, but it is what it is.

75 - That indicates to me that people have been looking at him in too much what-have-you-done-for-me-lately fashion.

78 - "It is unbelievably unfair that young players are expected to be good right away."

Truly. Especially when certain organizations' operating premise is that they can't/won't be good right away.

Now that I think about it, Ethier had a really hot start also. Betemit, Choi, Ross, et al started out slow and so they could never shake their reputations as mediocre options at their positions. Young players that don't break the door down eventually get their chances, but every option in front of them must be exhausted first.

I thought Betemit hit a lot when he first came to the Dodgers in '06. And yet that didn't help him much at the start of '07.

I am not used to having a GM who trades for players and then in less than a year trades them again for other players.

With Lastings in hand, do the Nats pass on A Jones?

I guess it takes a Milledge to raise the Nationals.

84 Presumably. I wonder what the latest is with Jones. Will his asking price keep him from getting a deal over the winter meetings?

Sorry if a repost, I just read this in a Milledge article: "One of the most publicized episodes came in the town that will be his new home. In September 2006, a sign was posted in Milledge's locker in the visiting clubhouse at RFK Stadium that read: 'Know your place, Rook. Your teammates.'"

I don't remember Kent being with the Mets then.

85 (Golf clap.)

86 Hahhah, I just read that, too, and thought the same thing!

He also was chided for participating in a rap CD with offensive lyrics.

At least he didn't deign to move a trash can.

I guess the Mets are being run by Marge Schott these days.

88 The preceding post was formatted by BillPlaschke Web Formatting, Inc.™

At SI.com, Bill James says Pierre is not clutch.

Can the case be made that Rowand would be a prudent investment? I don't think so, but if someone wants to make it, I'd be interested. Ten days from now, we might hear Ned extolling Rowand's character and scrappiness after guaranteeing him $60 million.