2008 OPS w/RISP for Dodgers with 14 or more games player:

Rafael Furcal 1.106
Juan Pierre 0.974
Matt Kemp 0.958
Blake DeWitt 0.938
James Loney 0.778
Jeff Kent 0.774
Andre Ethier 0.695
R. Martin 0.665
Chin-lung Hu 0.406
Andruw Jones 0.245
Mark Sweeney 0.222

I see no obvious pattern relating to inexperience.

BTW: Andruw Jones is 1-33 w/RISP this season.

Given that a player is actually trying, going 1-33 seems almost impossible. Consider this:

Lowe: 2-3
Loaiza: 1-2
Penny: 2-7
Billingsley: 1-4
Kuroda: 1-6

Joe Torre is telling the press it's all about inexperience

Last verse, same as the first verse. Didn't we run into this excuse last year when the team collapsed even though Martin, Loney, Kemp and Ethier all carrued the team. This year, Kent, Jones, Sweeney Todd (his new name casue he's a butcher) and more recently lack of a real SS are hurting us but its still about inexperience?

Re: LaRoche at 1B

Whatever gets him to the major league level the quickest right? Doesn't mean he will play exclusively at 1B right. Could just mean he would become the emergency 1B if something happened to Loney. He could play once a week at 1B and once a week at 3B/LF perhaps. I'm not worried.
vr, Xei

On one hand, I'd tend to think LaRoche is better suited for 1B than LF.

On the other hand, replacing Pierre in LF is better than replacing Loney at 1B.

On the third hand, Pierre's not going anywhere, and DeWitt is experiencing his presumably inevitable decline, so maybe 3B will open up.

4 - I'm not worried, but I think Andy would/will probably end up playing first base on more than an emergency level if Loney had the slightest slump, while not playing left field at all no matter how much of a slump might have. Of course, this assumes DeWitt never slumps, when in fact he is in one right now.

Some guys' slumps are harder to see, due to the soft focus and rose-colored classes.

Jones with RISP, since 2000

Yr AB Hits BA OBA Slug%
00 173 48 .277 .369 .474
01 147 42 .286 .380 .435
02 167 43 .257 .378 .503
03 195 53 .272 .362 .456
04 171 39 .228 .353 .427
05 184 38 .207 .335 .386
06 173 48 .277 .402 .491
07 173 40 .231 .360 .439
08 33 1 .030 .214 .030

Jon, the phrase "lack of power" tells the whole story. I don't think the Dodgers can be taken seriously until we can get at least one or two bats in the lineup that can be considered a power threat.

Slumps are indeed inevitable. But without a bonafide home run hitter, the Dodgers will face a lot more of them. Last year only one person (Kent) even hit 20 home runs. This year, I don't see anyone, outside of Kemp, on that pace. That's unacceptable for a Championship Contending club.

LaRoche at first base is like raaaaaaaain on your wedding day, or a free ride when you've already paid.

This year, I don't see anyone, outside of Kemp, on that pace

Kemp is on pace to hit 10 HRs.

Was there any update on Schmidts velocity? So the runs he gave up were fluky?

11

I was being generous.

If the youngest players will hit better in clutch situations when they get more experience, what will the oldest players with long-in-the-tooth experience do in the future that they are not doing now? Kent is not doing better than Loney, Martin, or Kemp.

If Torre thinks young players need more patience lets hope Torre and Colletti can see that need in themselves as well.

The big problem is Torre's failure to demonstrate by means of a lineup that this is the year the Dodgers will win or lose with Martin, Loney, Kemp, and Ethier and not Kent, Pierre, and Jones.

I really don't care whether they're chippy or not. Jason Schmidt's job is run prevention. If he can't do that in the Cal league, he shouldn't be on a major league roster. This being his third rehab start, I smell a push to get him into the rotation for strictly contractual reasons that will only serve to weaken the team further. Such a move might have the tonic effect of getting Ned Colletti fired, which would be a mildly positive outcome, but until Frank McCourt hires somebody who knows what he's doing and actually leaves him the heck alone to do it, there's little reason to believe the team will fare better under the next Dodgers GM.

If teams can see LaRoche being a young inexpensive first baseman with power and DeWitt as a dependable clutch inexpensive third baseman, the Dodgers have good trading pieces. They also Lowe or Penny they could trade. But my question is whether Colletti/Torre would go after a Beltre or a Zimerman?

9 - Slumps are indeed inevitable. But without a bonafide home run hitter, the Dodgers will face a lot more of them.

You would have enjoyed yesterday's Angels game.

From the Schmidt piece:

>>Schmidt pitched three scoreless innings, yielding three runs (two earned) in a fourth inning that included an infield single, a catcher's interference call and two wild pitches<<

Somebody sound the bell!

I did enjoy yesterday's Angel game. I like scoreless games. It's when only one team is scoreless and the other has > 4 runs that it gets boring.

Hey folks! I got back last night from my trip and watched the last two Dodger games in the MLBTV archives. (Boy, never try fast forwarding the control bar on that thing -- you'll never know where you end up in the game that way. Stupid Silverlight.)

Anyway, I scanned through some of the comments, but did anyone talk about Clayton Kershaw? :-/
Or is that ;-/ ?

That was a joy to watch. As good as he is, that was still better than I expected. I'm glad they won that game, too, of course, although would've been peachy if he'd gotten the win. Yesterday's game was frustrating but not worth rehashing since everyone here's already said everything. As Jon said, slumps happen, they'll get back on track soon, but having Furcal back sure would help.

Anyway, on to today's!

15 Given the nature of how those runs scored, and given how he's pitched overall in his rehab stints, I think you're being too hard on him and the team's use of him. I mean, they called up Clayton Kershaw to fill in start, rather than doing what might have been "expected" - i.e., bring back Loiaza to pitch or rush Schmidt. Loiaza's gone, Schmidt's still in Single A. I don't smell a rush. And I've heard his velocity's been getting up there.

Frankly, the way Penny has been pitching, I could see Kershaw staying and Penny phantom-DL'd and replaced by Schmidt for a spell. Just some idle thoughts for your Tuesday morning.

15 - The point of a rehab start is to rehab. Stats are beside the point. So getting worked up over the fact that he allowed runs seems like wasted energy.

Do the Dodgers want Schmidt in their rotation? Of course. What do you expect them to do - ban him from rehab?

18
I did in the last thread.

Game of inches and feet.

Billingsley misses his spot by a few inches and Lee hits it out.

Fukudome lunges at the carom on Kemp's double and snares it. Another inch or two away and Hu scores the tying run.

Loney goes from hero to goat by a few feet foul.

Underdog's Memorial Day vacation reading progress: Finished Richard Price's "Lush Life," which is excellent and a must for "Wire" fans who are in withdrawal. And read half of "Moneyball," finally (probably the last person here to read that one), and all of "Glory of Their Times," both as part of my long baseball book must-read checklist. Also skimmed Field Guide to Pacific Coast Birds, as part of our birdwatchin' weekend. I had plenty of egrets about the past few days.

25
I had plenty of egrets about the past few days

Your pun quality and quantity are hard to keep up with! Compared to you, I have but a paucity of puns.

I think LaRoche could OPS higher than .814 against Lefties.

We saw plenty of egrets on North Carolina's Outer Banks this past week. We also got to see the famous "wild horses of Corolla", which was a memorable experience. Apparently, egrets will sit on the horses backs during the summer months to eat flies.

14 Martin, Loney, Ethier and Kemp lead the Dodgers in PA's. Without the injury the top 5 would be those 4 plus Furcal. Now that Jones is gone what would you do differently than Torre is doing?

Before you jump on the Pierre bandwagon please note that Pierre has the 6th highest OPS on our 25 man roster (excluding players with fewer than 20 PA's).

I don't mean this to sound snippy. I really wonder what you (or anyone else for that matter) would do differently now on the non-pitching side.

I was kind of annoyed my Torre's comments too. I don't know that it helps to ride your players for their performance but to excuse it for lack of experience seems worse. As a player, I'd rather my manager believe I have all the tools to succeed and that I just didn't. What Torre's suggesting isn't fixable.

30 I think the issue is that Torre just has to say something. He can't just tell the media "these things will work themselves out" because he'll get called lazy. If he sticks to the cliches, no one can say a thing.

I think you have to call Schmidt's latest rehab start a success. No walks, no home runs and three strike-outs. From a DIPS standpoint, that's a good outing. Of course it's against Single-A players, but he did alright and didn't get hurt.

Is Kershaw staying in the Dodgers rotation now? Or shortly heading back down to AA?

I can't wait for Sweeney to get DFA'd. He is worse than Olmedo Saenz was in his last year with the Dodgers.

vr, Xei

29 I really wonder what you (or anyone else for that matter) would do differently now on the non-pitching side.

For starters, I'd stop batting Kent in the cleanup spot.

26 - Thanks; A friend of mine once sent me a belated birthday card that had a cartoon on the cover of two gangly birds ringing someone's doorbell with a note attached that read, "Your friend send his egrets," which is equally terrible but also made me laugh and forgive him for the belatedness. And 27 - Neat!
Actually, it was the Great Blue Heron we saw wading in the waters at dusk right outside our place that really took my breath away. I don't think my pictures of it came out but it was amazing.

Argh! Another Lakers-Dodgers conflict today. Better set Tivo and record the Lakers just in case.

31. How about "we're just not getting the job done right now. These are good players and the hits will start falling for us".
That's a pretty standard line. Saying they lack experience sounds like giving up on them.

32 At this point, I'd take Norihiro Nakamura over Sweeney.

33 And over the course of the year, you arguably gave the team one or two runs.

Given our current roster construction, there's not much Torre can do right now but run out the best nine guys, which he's been pretty good at doing all things considered. So long as, sadly, our entire bench outside of Delwyn doesn't get used when the outcome of the game is in doubt, we'll be fine.

33 And over the course of the year, you arguably gave the team one or two runs.

Given our current roster construction, there's not much Torre can do right now but run out the best nine guys, which he's been pretty good at doing all things considered. So long as, sadly, our entire bench outside of Delwyn doesn't get used when the outcome of the game is in doubt, we'll be fine.

35
The biggest problem with Torre blaming inexperience is not that it's unfixable or that he's giving up on young players, but that inexperience is demonstrably NOT the problem in the first place.

35 It could work, but that's just another way of saying "things will work themselves out". It seems like he's not doing anything if he says that.

I would like to take this moment to say I was all for the Dodgers acquisition of Sweeney last season, even though it meant giving up a young player for him (maybe Denker will have a better career than I'm expecting him to have) and thought it was good to acquire a solid pinch hitter for the bench. So while I don't want to call him worthless in general, he is clearly done and am all in favor of dropping him as soon as possible. If they really need a veteran on the bench, there are better ones out there (and, heck, Terry Tiffee basically counts as a veteran right? I'd rather him than Sweeney), but most of the Dodgers youngsters will be a better bench player than he is right now. So, thanks Mark, for a nice career as a pinch hitter, but adios.

38 ... we'll be fine.

Unless, of course, a member of said bench ends up hitting fifth and taking the collar.

Nori's batting .307/.349/.503 for Chunichi this year. He has nine home runs.

And he got rid of the mustache.

42 True, but it's on Ned, not Torre than we don't have a backup for Loney.

43. In Japan is lining the ball into the first base dugout considered a hit? That's all I remember Nori being good at.
vr, Xei

I have no problem with managers saying things to the press that aren't true or don't represent what they believe. Their first responsibility is to their players. I think Grady handled the press perfectly.

45
I don't remember Nori doing anything other than hitting weak grounders.

"The Boss" Jay Bruce makes his Reds debut tonight.

Bold prediction: Future MVP and possibly HOF.

28 Beautiful place. I will be in Avon for a week in June.

If it's the other team's dugout, then that could be a valuable skill.

48. Who's playing time will Bruce replace? Just curious as I haven't been following the move.
vr, Xei

51
I would short your Corey Patterson stock.

44 The Dodgers should target Scott Hatteberg, if/when the Reds DFA the Pickin' Machine™. That should put a nice bow on the Mark Sweeney era.

But since that would be a smart move, I don't think it would enter into NedCo's mind.

38 - Kent should be out of the clean up spot. The higher in the batting order a player is, the more plate appearances he gets in a game. Kent's line does not warrant him getting extra PAs.

49
First time I had been to the Outer Banks. It was great.

54. True but it's not going to make that much of a difference, runs scored wise.
vr, Xei

Scmidt won't come back as a starter unless someone goes down. Does anyone think he'd flat out displace Kershaw?

56 - ok, excuse my ignorance, but how does it not make much of a difference?

In theory, the clean up hitter is the guy most likely to have runners on base when he comes to bat. And having runners on base makes it easier to score (for example, a runner on third with less than two outs requires the hitter to make contact; a runner on second requires the hitter to get a base hit; extra base hit required for runner on first; no runners on, home run). So, having a guy with Kent's line batting in the spot where he is most likely to have runners on base, suggests to me that it is more than a marginally bad thing.

58. Because people much smarter than you and I have said so. :)
vr, Xei

Torre's "inexperience" quotes sound exactly, word for word, like what Wes Parker said on KABC a week ago Sunday. He said he was going to hang around and try to help the hitters deal with their lack of experience in RISP situations.

I think some are reading it the wrong way, however. I don't think he means, "They're inexperienced, which means they suck, so we should replace them with PVLs." I think he means, "They'll get better with more experience, so don't worry about them." In other words, I don't think his intent is very far off from what Jon says in his post.

Jim Tracy and Ned Colletti together have made us flinch when we hear certain words. But "you get better at what you do with more experience" is a homily, kind of like "early to bed, early to rise..." It's undeniably true in almost any situation, but not particularly insightful as to this specific situation.

When you have to do interviews 162+ times a year, you get good at mouthing these sorts of things. At least he didn't compare any of the Dodgers to RFK.

57 hmmm...good question...$47 million...couple hundred thousand with options...$47 million...couple hundred thousand with options...tough call...Clayton, see you soon...

In theory, the clean up hitter is the guy most likely to have runners on base when he comes to bat

But that's only true if managers put high OBP guys in the 1-3 spots, which they don't necessarily do. Most of them put slappy, speedy guys in the 1-2 spots, whether or not they actually get on base an awful lot.

But to answer your question, many simulations have apparently been run that show that scoring runs depends mostly upon who is in the lineup, and much less upon the batting order. That being said, there's still no excuse for putting together a bad lineup.

61 No. If Schmidt comes back healthy enough to start, Kershaw goes to the bullpen.

You think they're going to send Clayton to Vegas? I don't think so.

my guess would be he goes back to AA

Farewell, Earle Hagen, "the Emmy Award-winning television composer who wrote the memorable theme music for "The Andy Griffith Show," "The Dick Van Dyke Show," "I Spy" and other classic TV programs."

http://tinyurl.com/4p28nq

65
Well, now, take down your fishin' pole and meet me at The Fishin' Hole,
We may not get a bite all day, but don't you rush away.

What a great place to rest your bones and mighty fine for skippin' stones,
You'll feel fresh as a lemonade, a-settin' in the shade.

Whether it's hot, whether it's cool, oh what a spot for whistlin' like a fool.

What a fine day to take a stroll and wander by The Fishin' Hole,
I can't think of a better way to pass the time o' day.

We'll have no need to call the roll when we get to The Fishin' Hole,
There'll be you, me, and Old Dog Trey, to doodle time away.

If we don't hook a perch or bass, we'll cool our toes in dewy grass,
Or else pull up a weed to chaw, and maybe set and jaw.

Hangin' around, takin' our ease, watchin' that hound a-scratchin' at his fleas.

Come on, take down your fishin' pole and meet me at The Fishin' Hole,
I can't think of a better way to pass the time o' day.

64 Typically, when players are promoted from Double-A, they don't go back there.

Per yesterday's mini discussion:

Loney- .274 AVG, .765 OPS, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB, .989 FPCT

Teixeira- .267 AVG, .776 OPS, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 0 SB, .996 FPCT

Loney is 4 years younger than Teixeira and millions of dollars cheaper. I believe it was Joey P advocating the signing of Teixeira and the benching and/or trading of Loney. I think that's a really bad idea but I wouldn't put it past Ned to make some big changes to our infield next season; particularly if we don't have a big year this year. Scary.

Schmidt will finish his rehab assignment on June 10th.

That does not mean the Dodgers have to take him off the disabled list.

But he can no longer do anymore minor league appearances, he can do bullpens and simulated games at the major league level.

Schmidt can probably make 3 more starts and then the Dodgers will have to decide if he needs more time.

I resisted posting my semi-regular comment about how the Dodgers have not made a panic move (okay except Juan Pierre) in Ned's time as GM.

The Dodgers resisted trades all last year and in the off-season.

However, I'll add this, there have been comments about lack of power on this team, would you deal Billingsley or Kershaw for it.

Because that is what I would ask for.

62 - thus my qualifier "in theory".

The notion that batting order doesn't matter seems counter-intuitive to me, regardless of what the simulations say.

70. I'd say Kershaw is off limits. For Billingsley, I'd want one of the top power hitting second basemen. Otherwise, no thanks, what we have is good enough.
vr, Xei

The notion that batting order doesn't matter seems counter-intuitive to me, regardless of what the simulations say

I suspect it's counterintuitive to pretty much everyone. It's not that batting order doesn't matter, it's that it doesn't matter very much, and not nearly as much as who's in the lineup.

All of which is not to say that managers shouldn't put the lineup together the "right" way.

I'd keep Billingsley, Kershaw, Meloan, Broxton, and McDonald and go with the theory that good pitching beats good hitting.

70 I would not deal Billingsly or Kershaw under any circumstances. Brad Penny has some value, and Jonathan Broxton has even more. I would trade one of those guys for power, but not the two building blocks. Billingsly and Kershaw will be the best 1,2 combo in baseball by 2010.

Also... I can't wait for the removal of Sweeney and the return of LaRoche. At this point, I'll take LaRoche on the team in any capacity. If it means he's the back up to first and third while also providing patient pinch hit at-bats, I'll take it! Just get him here!!

"scoring runs depends mostly upon who is in the lineup, and much less upon the batting order"

Kind of a nobrainer, If I had 8 Pujos. Problem is we have pierre, hu, Maza, Kent, and until recently Jones.

I would send Hu down and bring up LaRoache, play Maza until Furcal returns. I would start LaRoache in LF, and would move Kent down in the order. Martin would lead off.

70

Not to pick a nit, but wasn't the Julio Lugo thing a panic move? What about the Jason Schmidt signing?

71. It does matter, just not very much. It's far more important to be playing the best players on a consistent basis than to make minor changes to the batting order. Studies have shown there isn't a whole lot to gain in making a change from moving a player like Jeff Kent from 4th to something like 6th in the lineup. If you are talking about the difference between batting your pitcher first and someone like Hu 2nd versus batting them 8th and 9th, then you have more of an argument. There are small gains that can be made through lineup construction, but they are very small. You MIGHT be able to squeeze out something close to one win per year or about 1/16th of a run per game.
vr, Xei

79 and the proof of that is the St Louis lineup with the pitcher batting 8th

70. I would not. Unless the "power" was say, Manny Ramirez. I mean jeez, we signed Andruw Jones for power. What if we had traded Bills or Kershaw for that? Very young very good starting pitchers are better than just about anything. We have power on this team, it's just not producing.

I am happy with the idea of Laroche taking at bats away from Pierre, and Kent...though I hope he doesn't turn Loney into a platoon player.

64, 67 - I'd rather they send him to double or Triple A then mess with his arm and put him in the bullpen, differenet mindset and use of your pitcher. Are they going to mess with this kid, start, then relieve then stretch him to start and ruin his arm. If they give him the 2-3 starts and decide to brink Schmidt back, I'd rather they send Kershaw maybe to Triple AAA to continue working on starts every five days. My first preference though is of course, if he's performing well, why mess with his confidence and send him down? It makes no sense. Another case of the "Old Establishment", "The Man" keeping a young man from reaching his full potential. The Dodgers could have found their Crown Jewel for this generation, but the old guys with their fixation on PVL guys will screw it up.

78 Well, was the Greg Maddux deal a panic move, I think it was more replacing Izzy with Lugo and Maddux gave us some very important starts down the stretch and Lugo, well he did end up netting us two draft picks (Withrow, Adkins) without for now, costing us much.

BTW, anyone notice that Chad Tracy is now back on the D-Backs, his presence will cost both Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds some starts.

If LaRoche can exceed James' power while matching his OPS, and assuming DeWitt is for real, then it makes sense to let LaRoche compete for both positions.

I think what this really means is the Dodger brass agrees the lack of power is killing us. They see Kemp as the only sustained power source on the horizon, except possibly for LaRoche. So they want to get him in there, even if it means moving Loney in a trade.

However, before that would be considered, it has to be shown that DeWitt is a long-term Solution at third, and not just a Fimple in the night.

68 O