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No Proof That Mota Trade Hurt Gagne
2004-10-01 09:33
Not yet, at least. First, let's get some raw numbers regarding Eric Gagne up on the board:
Conclusions: If the Dodgers had a bullpen with Guillermo Mota, Yhency Brazoban, Giovanni Carrara, Duaner Sanchez and Wilson Alvarez, all at full strength, Eric Gagne would have been used less down the stretch in 2004 than he has been. How wonderful it would have been. However, I have news for you. Such a bullpen never really had a chance of existing. If Mota had not been traded, Brazoban would not have been called up July 31. He would have remained in the minors at least until the Dodgers needed another pitcher – presumably when Darren Dreifort was injured – although with Mota still on the team, Dreifort might not have gone down as quickly. Now, take a look at Mota's statistics with Florida this month: 14 innings. 10 hits, eight runs, two blown saves, 5.14 ERA. Mota, it appears, is worn out dimensionally more than Gagne is reported to be. Since the trade, Gagne has had six outings of 30 pitches or more, five in September, with the maximum being 38. On half of those occasions, he has come back to pitch the next day. Relatively speaking, this is a lot of work for Gagne, but the notion that it has hurt his performance in any significant way lacks much evidence at all. His performance is not at his 2003 level, fair enough. But is it fair to Gagne or the Dodgers to make the 2003 level the baseline to evaluate Gagne? One more chart:
Gagne has allowed more hits since the All-Star Game than he was before, but significantly fewer home runs. I look at these statistics and my reaction is that, except for the walks, Gagne has probably just been a bit unluckier on some balls that have been hit finding holes. Thursday night, Gagne gave up a 50-foot single, an intentional walk, a sacrifice, a hard-hit fly out and a legitimate single for a run. He started well, but finished a little shaky. He might not have had the endurance to do a vintage Gagne-like inning, two days after his medical treatment. Though I hardly minded seeing him in Thursday's game, given that he had been cleared to play and that no one wanted to enter the Giants series on a two-game losing streak, given the concern about him, I could understand the sobriety of turning to Brazoban, and even Carrara and Sanchez, before Gagne. Though I suspect Gagne will be fine for the upcoming games, I can't testify to it. But I can say this. The trade of Mota has little, if anything, to do with whatever worries, phantom or otherwise, people have about Gagne. He has been as good as he was before the trade this season, as good as he was in 2002 and as good as anyone would have a right to expect him to be. Meanwhile, in a season in which there was so little margin to spare, he has helped the Dodgers clinch a tie for their first division title in nearly a decade. You have to look really hard to find the negatives with Gagne and the Dodgers' use of him – assuming, that is, that you take the time for an objective look at all.
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